CN112990678A - Icing early warning judgment method based on multi-source data fusion - Google Patents
Icing early warning judgment method based on multi-source data fusion Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
本发明公开了基于多源数据融合的覆冰预警判定方法，本发明涉及覆冰预警技术领域，解决了现有技术中不能够对各个区域覆冰可能性进行预测导致预警的准确性降低，通过覆冰预测单元对环境信息进行分析，从而对各个区域是否覆冰进行预测，将待检测电路线路所在的区域划分为若干个子区域，获取到环境信息，通过公式获取到子区域的覆冰预测系数Xi，若子区域的覆冰预测系数Xi≥子区域的覆冰预测系数阈值，则将对应子区域标记为覆冰子区域，获取到冷空气的风向，随后根据冷空气抵达子区域的时间先后顺序，将各个覆冰子区域进行排序，对各个区域覆冰进行预测，同时对区域覆冰的时间先后顺序进行判定，提高预警的准确性能。
The invention discloses an icing early warning determination method based on multi-source data fusion, relates to the technical field of icing early warning, and solves the problem that the accuracy of early warning is reduced due to the inability to predict the possibility of icing in each area in the prior art. The icing prediction unit analyzes the environmental information to predict whether each area is icing, divides the area where the circuit to be detected is located into several sub-regions, obtains the environmental information, and obtains the icing prediction coefficient of the sub-region through the formula Xi, if the icing prediction coefficient Xi of the sub-region is ≥ the icing prediction coefficient threshold of the sub-region, the corresponding sub-region is marked as the icing sub-region, and the wind direction of the cold air is obtained, and then the cold air arrives in the sub-region according to the time sequence of the arrival of the sub-region. , sort each icing sub-region, predict icing in each region, and judge the temporal sequence of regional icing to improve the accuracy of early warning.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of icing early warning, in particular to an icing early warning judgment method based on multi-source data fusion.
Background
The ice coating of the transmission line not only can influence the operation and maintenance work, but also can cause serious accidents such as line-touching short circuit, insulator flashover, short-line tower falling and the like in serious cases. The ice damage of the power transmission line has the characteristics of long duration, high occurrence frequency, large coverage area, wide influence range and the like, and seriously threatens the safe and stable operation and the power supply reliability of the power grid. Factors that affect ice coating on the lines are many. The icing condition of the cable cannot be effectively monitored in real time in the ordinary manual inspection or helicopter inspection, and once the high-voltage transmission line is excessively iced, the cable cannot be effectively deiced, so that the consequences are beyond the assumption.
However, in the prior art, the icing possibility of each area cannot be predicted, so that the accuracy of early warning is reduced.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an icing early warning judgment method based on multi-source data fusion, which comprises the steps of analyzing power line data in each area through a circuit monitoring unit, monitoring power lines of icing subareas to obtain the power line data, obtaining power line analysis coefficients JCo of the icing subareas through a formula, judging that the power lines of the corresponding icing subareas are abnormal if the power line analysis coefficients JCo of the icing subareas are not less than a power line analysis coefficient threshold value, generating a line abnormal signal, sending the line abnormal signal and the corresponding icing subareas to an early warning management platform, and generating a line maintenance signal and sending the line maintenance signal to a mobile phone terminal of a maintenance worker after the early warning management platform receives the line abnormal signal; and the abnormal line is early-warned, so that the influence of the line abnormality on the power utilization is reduced.
The purpose of the invention can be realized by the following technical scheme:
an icing early warning judgment method based on multi-source data fusion specifically comprises the following steps:
step one, registering and logging, wherein a manager and a maintenance worker register and log in through a mobile phone terminal;
secondly, ice coating prediction is carried out, and environment information is analyzed through an ice coating prediction unit, so that whether each area is coated with ice or not is predicted;
step three, circuit monitoring, namely analyzing the power line data of each ice-coated subregion through a circuit monitoring unit so as to monitor the power line of each ice-coated subregion;
analyzing road conditions, namely analyzing the road information to which the electric power line of each ice-coated subregion belongs through a road condition analysis unit, so as to detect the road to which the electric power line of each ice-coated subregion belongs;
step five, power dispatching, namely analyzing the region information through a power dispatching unit so as to select a proper region for power dispatching;
the ice coating prediction unit in the second step is used for analyzing the environment information so as to predict whether each region is coated with ice, the environment information comprises temperature data, humidity data and wind speed data, the temperature data is the maximum temperature change value of each sub-region all day, the humidity data is the average humidity value of each sub-region all day, the wind speed data is the wind speed change value of each sub-region all day per hour, and the specific analysis and prediction process is as follows:
step S1: dividing the area where the circuit line to be detected is located into a plurality of sub-areas, and then marking the sub-areas as i, i is 1, 2, … …, n, n is a positive integer;
step S2: acquiring the maximum temperature change value of the whole day in each sub-area, and marking the maximum temperature change value of the whole day in each sub-area as WBi;
step S3: acquiring the average humidity value of all days in each sub-area, and marking the average humidity value of all days in each sub-area as PSi;
step S4: acquiring the whole-day and every-hour wind speed change value of each sub-region, and marking the whole-day and every-hour wind speed change value of each sub-region as FBi;
step S5: by the formula
Acquiring an icing prediction coefficient Xi of a subregion, wherein a1, a2 and a3 are proportional coefficients, a1 is larger than a2 and larger than a3 and larger than 0, and beta is an error correction factor and is 2.36521;
step S6: comparing the icing prediction coefficient Xi of the sub-area with an icing prediction coefficient threshold of the sub-area:
if the icing prediction coefficient Xi of the sub-region is larger than or equal to the icing prediction coefficient threshold of the sub-region, marking the corresponding sub-region as an icing sub-region, generating an icing prediction signal and sending the icing prediction signal and the icing sub-region to an early warning management platform;
if the icing prediction coefficient Xi of the sub-region is smaller than the icing prediction coefficient threshold of the sub-region, marking the corresponding sub-region as an icing-free sub-region, generating an icing-free prediction signal and sending the icing-free prediction signal and the icing-free sub-region to an early warning management platform;
step S7: the method comprises the steps of obtaining the wind direction of cold air, sequencing all ice-coated subareas according to the time sequence of the cold air reaching the subareas, and sending the sequenced ice-coated subareas to a mobile phone terminal of a manager.
Further, the road condition analysis unit is configured to analyze the road information to which the power line of each ice-coating sub-area belongs, so as to detect the road condition of the ice-coating sub-area, where the road information to which the power line of each ice-coating sub-area belongs includes quantity data, speed data, and frequency data, the quantity data is the average number of vehicles passing through the power line around the ice-coating sub-area all day, the speed data is the average speed of vehicles passing through the power line around the ice-coating sub-area all day, the frequency data is the frequency of vehicles passing through the power line around the ice-coating sub-area all day, the ice-coating sub-area is marked as o, o is 1, 2, … …, m, and m is a positive integer, and the specific analysis and detection process is as:
step SS 1: acquiring the average number of vehicles passing by the power line surrounding roads in the icing sub-area all day, and marking the average number of vehicles passing by the power line surrounding roads in the icing sub-area all day as So;
step SS 2: acquiring the average speed of all-day passing vehicles on the roads around the power line in the icing sub-area, and marking the average speed of all-day passing vehicles on the roads around the power line in the icing sub-area as Vo;
step SS 3: acquiring the all-day vehicle passing frequency of the roads around the power line in the ice-covered sub-area, and marking the all-day vehicle passing frequency of the roads around the power line in the ice-covered sub-area as Po;
step SS 4: by the formula Xo ═ e (So × b1+ Vo × b2+ Po × b3)b1+b2+b3Acquiring a road condition analysis coefficient Xo of an ice-covered subregion, wherein b1, b2 and b3 are proportional coefficients, b1 is greater than b2 and is greater than b3 and is a natural constant;
step SS 5: comparing the road condition analysis coefficient of the ice-coated subarea with a road condition analysis coefficient threshold value:
if the road condition analysis coefficient of the ice-coated subarea is larger than or equal to the road condition analysis coefficient threshold value, judging that vehicle control needs to be carried out on the corresponding ice-coated subarea, generating a vehicle control signal, sending the vehicle control signal and the corresponding ice-coated subarea to an early warning management platform, acquiring the predicted duration of cold air after the early warning management platform receives the vehicle control signal, and then sending the predicted duration and the vehicle control signal to a mobile phone terminal of a manager;
and if the road condition analysis coefficient of the ice-coated subarea is less than the road condition analysis coefficient threshold value, judging that the corresponding ice-coated subarea does not need to implement vehicle control, generating a vehicle no-control signal, and sending the vehicle no-control signal and the corresponding ice-coated subarea to the early warning management platform.
Further, the circuit monitoring unit is configured to analyze power line data in each area, so as to monitor the power line in the ice-coated subregion, where the power line data includes sag of wires in the power line, a relative safety distance between the wires in the power line, and a shearing force applied to a connection point in the power line, and the specific analysis and monitoring process is as follows:
step T1: acquiring the sag of a wire in the power line, and marking the sag of the wire in the power line as CDo;
step T2: acquiring a relative safe distance between leads in the power circuit, and marking the relative safe distance between the leads in the power circuit as JLO;
step T3: acquiring the shearing force applied to the connection point in the power line, and marking the shearing force applied to the connection point in the power line as JQo;
step T4: by the formula
Acquiring power line analysis coefficients JCo of each ice coating subregion, wherein v1, v2 and v3 are proportionality coefficients, and v1 is more than v2 is more than v3 is more than 0;
step T5: comparing the power line analysis coefficient JCo for each ice coating subregion to a power line analysis coefficient threshold:
if the power line analysis coefficient JCo of each ice-coated subregion is larger than or equal to the power line analysis coefficient threshold value, judging that the power line corresponding to the ice-coated subregion is abnormal, generating a line abnormal signal and sending the line abnormal signal and the corresponding ice-coated subregion to an early warning management platform, and after receiving the line abnormal signal, generating a line maintenance signal and sending the line maintenance signal to a mobile phone terminal of a maintenance worker by the early warning management platform;
and if the power line analysis coefficient JCo of each ice-coated subregion is less than the power line analysis coefficient threshold value, judging that the power line corresponding to the ice-coated subregion is normal, generating a normal line signal and sending the normal line signal and the corresponding ice-coated subregion to the early warning management platform.
Further, the power scheduling unit is configured to analyze the region information, so as to select a suitable region for power scheduling, where a specific analysis and selection process is as follows:
step TT 1: acquiring an icing subarea corresponding to the line abnormity, marking the corresponding icing subarea as a maintenance area, and then acquiring area information of the maintenance area and a peripheral area, wherein the area information comprises the spacing distance between the maintenance area and the peripheral area, the average power consumption of the peripheral area of the maintenance area all day and the sum of the number of residents and factories in the peripheral area of the maintenance area;
step TT 2: acquiring the spacing distance between a maintenance area and the peripheral area, the average electricity consumption of the peripheral area of the maintenance area all day and the sum of the number of residents and the number of factories in the peripheral area of the maintenance area, and respectively marking the spacing distance between the maintenance area and the peripheral area, the average electricity consumption of the peripheral area of the maintenance area all day and the number of residents and factories in the peripheral area of the maintenance area as JL, DL and ZH;
step TT 3: by the formula
Obtaining a scheduling coefficient DD of a peripheral area of the maintenance area, wherein s1, s2 and s3 are all proportionality coefficients, and s1 > s2＞s3＞0；
Step TT 4: sequencing the peripheral areas of the maintenance areas according to the sequence of the scheduling coefficients from large to small, marking the peripheral area with the first sequence as a scheduling selected area, simultaneously marking the peripheral area with the second sequence as a scheduling alternative area, and then sending the scheduling selected area and the scheduling alternative area to a mobile phone terminal of a manager.
Further, the registration login unit in the first step is used for the manager and the maintainer to submit the manager information and the maintainer information through the mobile phone terminal for registration, and the manager information and the maintainer information which are successfully registered are sent to the database for storage, the manager information comprises the name, the age, the time of entry and the mobile phone number of the personal real name authentication, and the maintainer information comprises the name, the age, the time of entry and the mobile phone number of the personal real name authentication.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. according to the method, the environmental information is analyzed through the icing prediction unit, so that whether each area is iced or not is predicted, the area where a circuit to be detected is located is divided into a plurality of sub-areas, and then the sub-areas are marked as i, i is 1, 2, … …, n, and n is a positive integer; obtaining environmental information, obtaining an icing prediction coefficient Xi of a sub-region through a formula, if the icing prediction coefficient Xi of the sub-region is larger than or equal to an icing prediction coefficient threshold of the sub-region, marking the corresponding sub-region as an icing sub-region, generating an icing prediction signal, and sending the icing prediction signal and the icing sub-region to an early warning management platform; acquiring the wind direction of cold air, sequencing the ice-coated subareas according to the time sequence of arrival of the cold air at the subareas, and sending the sequenced ice-coated subareas to a mobile phone terminal of a manager; the icing of each region is predicted, and the time sequence of the icing of the regions is judged at the same time, so that the accuracy of early warning is improved;
2. according to the method, the circuit monitoring unit is used for analyzing the power line data in each area, so that the power lines of the ice-coated subareas are monitored, the power line data are obtained, the power line analysis coefficient JCo of each ice-coated subarea is obtained through a formula, if the power line analysis coefficient JCo of each ice-coated subarea is larger than or equal to the power line analysis coefficient threshold value, the power line corresponding to the ice-coated subarea is judged to be abnormal, a line abnormal signal is generated, the line abnormal signal and the corresponding ice-coated subarea are sent to an early warning management platform, and after the early warning management platform receives the line abnormal signal, a line maintenance signal is generated and sent to a mobile phone terminal of a maintenance worker; and the abnormal line is early-warned, so that the influence of the line abnormality on the power utilization is reduced.
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In order to facilitate understanding for those skilled in the art, the present invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a schematic block diagram of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the following embodiments, and it should be understood that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the icing early warning determination method based on multi-source data fusion specifically includes the following steps:
step one, registering and logging, wherein a manager and a maintenance worker register and log in through a mobile phone terminal;
secondly, ice coating prediction is carried out, and environment information is analyzed through an ice coating prediction unit, so that whether each area is coated with ice or not is predicted;
step three, circuit monitoring, namely analyzing the power line data of each ice-coated subregion through a circuit monitoring unit so as to monitor the power line of each ice-coated subregion;
analyzing road conditions, namely analyzing the road information to which the electric power line of each ice-coated subregion belongs through a road condition analysis unit, so as to detect the road to which the electric power line of each ice-coated subregion belongs;
step five, power dispatching, namely analyzing the region information through a power dispatching unit so as to select a proper region for power dispatching;
the method comprises the steps that firstly, a registration login unit is used for a manager and a maintainer to submit manager information and maintainer information through a mobile phone terminal for registration, and the manager information and the maintainer information which are successfully registered are sent to a database for storage, wherein the manager information comprises the name, the age, the time of entry and the mobile phone number of real-name authentication of the manager, and the maintainer information comprises the name, the age, the time of entry and the mobile phone number of real-name authentication of the maintainer;
the icing prediction unit in the second step is used for analyzing the environment information so as to predict whether each area is iced, the environment information comprises temperature data, humidity data and wind speed data, the temperature data is the maximum temperature change value of each sub-area all day, the humidity data is the average humidity value of each sub-area all day, the wind speed data is the wind speed change value of each sub-area all day per hour, and the specific analysis prediction process is as follows:
step S1: dividing the area where the circuit line to be detected is located into a plurality of sub-areas, and then marking the sub-areas as i, i is 1, 2, … …, n, n is a positive integer;
step S2: acquiring the maximum temperature change value of the whole day in each sub-area, and marking the maximum temperature change value of the whole day in each sub-area as WBi;
step S3: acquiring the average humidity value of all days in each sub-area, and marking the average humidity value of all days in each sub-area as PSi;
step S4: acquiring the whole-day and every-hour wind speed change value of each sub-region, and marking the whole-day and every-hour wind speed change value of each sub-region as FBi;
step S5: by the formula
Acquiring an icing prediction coefficient Xi of a subregion, wherein a1, a2 and a3 are proportional coefficients, a1 is larger than a2 and larger than a3 and larger than 0, and beta is an error correction factor and is 2.36521;
step S6: comparing the icing prediction coefficient Xi of the sub-area with an icing prediction coefficient threshold of the sub-area:
if the icing prediction coefficient Xi of the sub-region is larger than or equal to the icing prediction coefficient threshold of the sub-region, marking the corresponding sub-region as an icing sub-region, generating an icing prediction signal and sending the icing prediction signal and the icing sub-region to an early warning management platform;
if the icing prediction coefficient Xi of the sub-region is smaller than the icing prediction coefficient threshold of the sub-region, marking the corresponding sub-region as an icing-free sub-region, generating an icing-free prediction signal and sending the icing-free prediction signal and the icing-free sub-region to an early warning management platform;
step S7: acquiring the wind direction of cold air, sequencing the ice-coated subareas according to the time sequence of arrival of the cold air at the subareas, and sending the sequenced ice-coated subareas to a mobile phone terminal of a manager;
the road condition analysis unit is used for analyzing the road information to which the power line of each ice-coating subregion belongs, so as to detect the road condition of the ice-coating subregion, the road information to which the power line of each ice-coating subregion belongs comprises quantity data, speed data and frequency data, the quantity data is the average number of vehicles passing through all day around the power line in the ice-coating subregion, the speed data is the average speed of the vehicles passing through all day around the power line in the ice-coating subregion, the frequency data is the frequency of the vehicles passing through all day around the power line in the ice-coating subregion, the ice-coating subregion is marked as o, o is 1, 2, … …, m, and m is a positive integer, and the specific analysis and detection process is as follows:
step SS 1: acquiring the average number of vehicles passing by the power line surrounding roads in the icing sub-area all day, and marking the average number of vehicles passing by the power line surrounding roads in the icing sub-area all day as So;
step SS 2: acquiring the average speed of all-day passing vehicles on the roads around the power line in the icing sub-area, and marking the average speed of all-day passing vehicles on the roads around the power line in the icing sub-area as Vo;
step SS 3: acquiring the all-day vehicle passing frequency of the roads around the power line in the ice-covered sub-area, and marking the all-day vehicle passing frequency of the roads around the power line in the ice-covered sub-area as Po;
step SS 4: by the formula Xo ═ e (So × b1+ Vo × b2+ Po × b3)b1+b2+b3Acquiring a road condition analysis coefficient Xo of an ice-covered subregion, wherein b1, b2 and b3 are proportional coefficients, b1 is greater than b2 and is greater than b3 and is a natural constant;
step SS 5: comparing the road condition analysis coefficient of the ice-coated subarea with a road condition analysis coefficient threshold value:
if the road condition analysis coefficient of the ice-coated subarea is larger than or equal to the road condition analysis coefficient threshold value, judging that vehicle control needs to be carried out on the corresponding ice-coated subarea, generating a vehicle control signal, sending the vehicle control signal and the corresponding ice-coated subarea to an early warning management platform, acquiring the predicted duration of cold air after the early warning management platform receives the vehicle control signal, and then sending the predicted duration and the vehicle control signal to a mobile phone terminal of a manager;
if the road condition analysis coefficient of the ice-coated subarea is less than the road condition analysis coefficient threshold value, judging that the corresponding ice-coated subarea does not need to implement vehicle control, generating a vehicle non-control signal and sending the vehicle non-control signal and the corresponding ice-coated subarea to the early warning management platform;
the circuit monitoring unit is used for analyzing the electric power circuit data in each area, so that the electric power circuit in the ice-coated subarea is monitored, the electric power circuit data comprise the sag of the wires in the electric power circuit, the relative safe distance between the wires in the electric power circuit and the shearing force applied to the connecting point in the electric power circuit, and the specific analysis and monitoring process comprises the following steps:
step T1: acquiring the sag of a wire in the power line, and marking the sag of the wire in the power line as CDo;
step T2: acquiring a relative safe distance between leads in the power circuit, and marking the relative safe distance between the leads in the power circuit as JLO;
step T3: acquiring the shearing force applied to the connection point in the power line, and marking the shearing force applied to the connection point in the power line as JQo;
step T4: by the formula
Acquiring power line analysis coefficients JCo of each ice coating subregion, wherein v1, v2 and v3 are proportionality coefficients, and v1 is more than v2 is more than v3 is more than 0;
step T5: comparing the power line analysis coefficient JCo for each ice coating subregion to a power line analysis coefficient threshold:
if the power line analysis coefficient JCo of each ice-coated subregion is larger than or equal to the power line analysis coefficient threshold value, judging that the power line corresponding to the ice-coated subregion is abnormal, generating a line abnormal signal and sending the line abnormal signal and the corresponding ice-coated subregion to an early warning management platform, and after receiving the line abnormal signal, generating a line maintenance signal and sending the line maintenance signal to a mobile phone terminal of a maintenance worker by the early warning management platform;
if the power line analysis coefficient JCo of each ice-coated subregion is smaller than the power line analysis coefficient threshold value, judging that the power line of the corresponding ice-coated subregion is normal, generating a normal line signal and sending the normal line signal and the corresponding ice-coated subregion to an early warning management platform;
the power scheduling unit is used for analyzing the regional information, so that a proper region is selected for power scheduling, and the specific analysis and selection process is as follows:
step TT 1: acquiring an icing subarea corresponding to the line abnormity, marking the corresponding icing subarea as a maintenance area, and then acquiring area information of the maintenance area and a peripheral area, wherein the area information comprises the spacing distance between the maintenance area and the peripheral area, the average power consumption of the peripheral area of the maintenance area all day and the sum of the number of residents and factories in the peripheral area of the maintenance area;
step TT 2: acquiring the spacing distance between a maintenance area and the peripheral area, the average electricity consumption of the peripheral area of the maintenance area all day and the sum of the number of residents and the number of factories in the peripheral area of the maintenance area, and respectively marking the spacing distance between the maintenance area and the peripheral area, the average electricity consumption of the peripheral area of the maintenance area all day and the number of residents and factories in the peripheral area of the maintenance area as JL, DL and ZH;
step TT 3: by the formula
Acquiring a scheduling coefficient DD of a peripheral area of a maintenance area, wherein s1, s2 and s3 are all proportionality coefficients, and s1 is greater than s2 is greater than s3 is greater than 0;
step TT 4: sequencing the peripheral areas of the maintenance areas according to the sequence of the scheduling coefficients from large to small, marking the peripheral area with the first sequence as a scheduling selected area, simultaneously marking the peripheral area with the second sequence as a scheduling alternative area, and then sending the scheduling selected area and the scheduling alternative area to a mobile phone terminal of a manager.
The working principle of the invention is as follows:
an icing early warning judgment method based on multi-source data fusion specifically comprises the following steps: registering, namely, registering and logging in by a manager and a maintenance worker through a mobile phone terminal; ice coating prediction, namely analyzing the environmental information through an ice coating prediction unit so as to predict whether each area is coated with ice or not; the circuit monitoring is carried out, wherein the circuit monitoring unit is used for analyzing the power line data of each ice-coated subregion so as to monitor the power lines of each ice-coated subregion; analyzing the road condition, namely analyzing the road information to which the power line of each ice-coated subregion belongs through a road condition analysis unit so as to detect the road to which the power line of each ice-coated subregion belongs; and power dispatching, wherein the region information is analyzed by a power dispatching unit, so that a proper region is selected for power dispatching.
The above formulas are all calculated by taking the numerical value of the dimension, the formula is a formula which obtains the latest real situation by acquiring a large amount of data and performing software simulation, and the preset parameters in the formula are set by the technical personnel in the field according to the actual situation.
The foregoing is merely exemplary and illustrative of the present invention and various modifications, additions and substitutions may be made by those skilled in the art to the specific embodiments described without departing from the scope of the invention as defined in the following claims.
Claims (5)
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