JP2971275B2 - Water demand forecasting equipment - Google Patents

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a demand prediction device for a water supply process, and more particularly to a demand prediction device for a water supply process for supplying water from a plurality of water sources to a plurality of distribution blocks.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art FIG. 6 shows a conventional demand prediction device for a water supply process. FIG. 6 shows a demand prediction device in the case where the water distribution block 12 constituting the water supply block and the water purification plant 11 for supplying water to the water distribution block 12 have a one-to-one relationship.

The demand forecasting apparatus has a weather data input means 27 to which weather data is inputted, and a demand forecasting means 22 for obtaining a demand forecast amount based on the weather data. The predicted value obtained by the demand prediction means 22 is
From 6 is sent to the water purification plant 11.

[0004]

Generally, demand forecasting means 2
No. 2 predicts the demand amount from the predicted value of the factor data, using the relationship between the past actual value of the demand amount and the actual value of the factor data that affects the demand amount such as weather. For example, by using a means of obtaining a regression equation between the actual demand value and the actual weather value, self-organizing the relationship between the demand amount and the factor data, or learning using a neural network, etc. The demand of the next day is predicted by inputting the weather data of the next day.

According to such a demand forecasting method, there is no major problem when the water purification plant 11 and the water distribution block 12 have a one-to-one relationship. However, in a water supply process in which a plurality of water supply blocks are supplied with water from a plurality of water supply sources, the water distribution system sometimes changes. For example, in a water supply process where a water distribution block receives water from two water sources, A and B, sometimes it receives 50% water from water source A, 50% water from water source B, and then 60% from water source A. ,
If 40% is received from the water supply source B, the conventional demand forecasting method cannot sufficiently follow. For this reason, it may not be possible to reliably predict the water supply amount of each water supply source.

The present invention has been made in view of the above points, and in a water supply block supplying water from a plurality of water sources to a plurality of water distribution blocks, it is possible to reliably predict a water supply amount of each water supply source. An object of the present invention is to provide a demand forecasting device for a water supply process.

[0007]

The present invention comprises a plurality of water distribution blocks, a water supply source for supplying water to the water distribution blocks via connection pipes connecting the respective water distribution blocks, and a connection valve attached to the connection pipes. In the demand forecasting device in the water supply process having, a relational expression between the demand for each water distribution block and the weather data is built in advance, and a demand forecasting means for calculating the demand forecast for each water distribution block based on the forecast information of the weather data. Based on the degree of opening of each connection valve, a distribution block operation state calculating means for calculating a ratio of each distribution block depending on each water supply source, a demand forecast amount of each distribution block obtained by the demand prediction means, and a water distribution block operation. Water supply amount prediction means for calculating the water supply amount of each water supply source based on the rate at which each water distribution block obtained by the state input means receives water from each water supply source. A demand prediction unit water supply process.

[0008]

The demand forecasting means calculates a demand forecast quantity for each water distribution block based on the forecast information of the weather data by using a relational expression between the demand quantity for each water distribution block and the weather data,
In the water distribution block operation state calculation means, a ratio at which each water distribution block depends on each water supply source is obtained based on the degree of opening of each connection valve. The water supply amount prediction means predicts the water supply amount of each water supply source based on the predicted amount of demand of each water distribution block and the ratio depending on each water supply source of each water distribution block.

[0009]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a basic configuration of a demand prediction device for a water supply process according to the present invention.

In FIG. 1, a plurality of water distribution blocks 12
, 12m, a plurality of water supply sources, for example, water purification plants 11a,... 11m, and respective water distribution blocks 12a, 12b,.
.., 12 m, and a water supply process is composed of a connection pipe 15 that connects the water distribution block and the water supply source. The connecting pipe 15 has a plurality of connecting valves 10a,
.. 10e are installed, and a plurality of water purification plants 1
, 11m via a connecting pipe 15 to a plurality of water distribution blocks 12a, 12b,... 12m.

The demand forecasting apparatus 1 for such a water supply process comprises a demand forecasting means 2a for obtaining a demand forecasting amount for each of the water distribution blocks 12a, 12b,... 12m based on the weather data inputted from the weather data input means 7. ... 2m and the degree of opening of the connection valves 10a, 10b,... 10e, the distribution block operation state calculating means 3 for calculating the proportion of the water distribution blocks 12a, 12b,. And each water distribution block 12a, 12b ... 1
Demand forecast amount of 2m and each water distribution block 12a, 12b, ...
Each water treatment plant 11a, based on the ratio of receiving 12m water supply,
... water supply amount prediction means 5 for predicting a water supply amount of 11 m.

Next, each component will be described in detail below.

The demand forecasting means 2a,... 2m for calculating the demand forecasting amount for each of the water distribution blocks 12a, 12b,. A demand forecast amount is obtained based on the information. In this case, the demand forecasting means 2a,.
In m, a relational expression between the demand value obtained from the past demand value of each water distribution block and the demand value obtained from the past weather data and the weather data is incorporated.

As the prediction calculation method performed by the demand prediction means 2a,... 2m, conventionally used demand prediction methods, for example, multiple regression, GMDH (Group Method of Da
taHandling), a neural network, or the like.

The water distribution block operation state calculating means 3 includes a connecting pipe 1 connecting the water distribution blocks 12a,.
5e and the contents of the pipeline information file 4 are input, and the water distribution blocks 12a, 12a,.
.. 12m depend on each water purification plant 11a,... 11m, and output this ratio (A) to the water supply amount predicting means 5. The pipeline information file 4 contains
Each water distribution block 12a,... 12m and water purification plant 11a,.
.. 10e, and information indicating which pipeline the connecting valves 10a,... 10e are installed in.

In the water supply amount predicting means 5, a demand predicted amount for each distribution block input from the demand predicting means 2a,.
Each water purification plant 11a,... 1 is based on the ratio (A) in which the demand amount of each water distribution block input from
The water supply amount for each 1 m is calculated, and this water supply amount is stored in the predicted value file 6 for each water purification plant.

The predicted value file 6 for each water purification plant stores the amount of water supply for each water purification plant, and the information in the predicted value file 6 is displayed and output as necessary,
Data is transferred to a,... 11 m and used as a predicted value of water supply.

As described above, the weather data input means 7 includes forecast information of weather data such as weather, temperature, and precipitation probability required by the demand forecast means 2a,. This is an input device for inputting weather data and actual demand values. These pieces of information may be input manually or automatically from another computer for delivering weather information.

Next, a specific configuration of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.

The specific configuration shown in FIG. 2 is embodied in that three water distribution blocks 12a, 12b, and 12c are provided, and one water purification plant 11 and one water supply pump 19 are provided as water supply sources. The rest is substantially the same as the basic configuration shown in FIG.

The water purification plant 11 and the water supply pump 19
Water is supplied to the water distribution blocks 12a, 12b, 12c via a connecting pipe 15 having connecting valves 10a, 10b. Further, flow meters 9, 9 are provided on the outlet side of the water purification plant 11 and the water supply pump 19. ing.

Next, the operation of this embodiment having such a configuration will be described with reference to the specific configuration of FIG.

Demand forecasting means 2a, 2 for each water distribution block
b and 2c are conventionally used based on the prediction information of the weather data such as the weather, the temperature, and the probability of precipitation input from the weather data input means 7 and the relational expression between the demand and the weather data. Demand forecasting methods such as multiple regression, G
Water distribution block 12a, using MDH (Group Method of Data Handling), neural network, etc.
Calculate predicted demand amounts: b1, b2, and b3 of the water distribution blocks 12b and 12c.

On the other hand, the pipeline information file 4 contains connection information between the water distribution blocks 12a, 12b, 12c, the water treatment plant 11 and the water supply pump 19, and connection valves 10a, 10b,
Information indicating where in the connecting pipe 15 the 10c is installed is modeled and stored as a connection graph between a water supply source and a water distribution block as shown in FIG. In the pipeline information file 4, the following equations (1) to (6)
As shown in the table, the general dependency ratio of the water distribution block to the water supply source is stored.

A ₁₁ = 1 (1) a ₁₂ = f 1 (u 1) / f 1 (u 1) + f 2 (u 2) (2) a ₁₃ = 0 (3) a ₂₁ = 0 (4) a ₂₂ = f 2 (u 2) / f 1 (u 1) + f 2 (u 2) (5) a ₂₃ = 1 (6) In the equations (1) to (6), a _ij is a ratio at which the water distribution block j depends on the water supply source i. is there.

Also, f1 (u1) and f2 (u2)
Is a function of the ratio depending on the water supply source in the water supply process represented by the valve opening degree u.

In the water supply process shown in FIG. 2, since the only water supply source that supplies water to the water distribution block 12a is the water purification plant 11, as described above, a ₁₁ = 1 (1) a ₂₁ = 0 (2) ). Further to the water distribution block 12b, and a water supply through a connection valve 10a from the purification plant 11, since the water supply through a connection valve 10b from the water supply pump _{19, a 12 = f1 (u1} ) / f1 (u1) + f2 (u2) ... _{(3) a 21 = f2 (} u2) / f1 (u1) + f2 (u2) ... is (4). To the water distribution block 12c, since the water only from the water supply pump 19, and _{a 13 = 0 ... (5)} a 23 = 1 ... (6).

As described above, f1 (u1) and f2 (u
2) is a function indicating the relationship between the valve opening degree u determined by the water supply process and the ratio f (u) depending on the water supply source,
The function is shown in FIG. That is, as shown in FIG.
Valve opening: When u = 0, f (0) = 0 and u = 100
%, Where f (u) = 1. The relationship between u and f (u) is determined by actually measuring the flow rate flowing through the valve.

Next, the connection information between each water distribution block and the water supply source, the connection valves 10a, 10
Information indicating where the b and 10c are installed in the connecting pipe 15 and the dependence ratio of the water distribution block to the general water supply source (Equations (1) to (6)) are calculated by the water distribution block operation state calculating means 3. Is input to

Next, the water distribution block operation state calculating means 3
The valve openings of the connection valves 10a, 10b, 10c connecting the water distribution blocks 12a, 12b, 12c are inputted, and the general dependency ratio of the water distribution block to the water supply source (1)-
Based on (6), a specific dependency ratio depending on each water supply source of each water distribution block is obtained as a vector A.

[0031]

(Equation 1) Next, in the water supply amount prediction means 5, the demand prediction amounts b1, b2, b3 for each water distribution block input from the demand prediction means 2a, 2b, 2c for each water distribution block and the water supply block operation state calculation means 3 are input. The water supply amounts q1 and q2 of the water purification plant 11 and the water supply pump 19 are obtained based on the ratio A depending on each water supply source of each water distribution block. That is,

(Equation 2) From _{q1 = a 11 · b1 + a} 12 · b2 + a 13 · b3, ... become _{(9) q2 = a 21 ·} b1 + a 22 · b2 + a 23 · b3 ... (10).

(9) The values of q1 and q2 obtained by the equations (10) are stored in the predicted value files 6a and 6b for each water supply source.

Next, signals of the water supply amounts q1 and q2 are sent from the predicted value files 6a and 6b to the water purification plant 11 and the water supply pump 19, respectively, based on the signals of the water supply amounts q1 and q2. The water supply amount of the water supply pump 19 is determined.

The actual value of the amount of water supplied from the water purification plant 11 and the actual value of the amount of water supplied from the water supply pump 19 are respectively measured by the flow meters 9 and 9 and sent to the water supply amount predicting means 5.

As described above, according to this embodiment,
By changing the opening of the connection valves 10a, 10b of the connection pipe 15 connecting the water distribution blocks 12a, 12b, 12c, the water supply blocks 11, 12b, 12c are supplied from the water supply sources 11, 19.
Even if the water distribution system changes, each water source 1
It is possible to reliably predict 1, 19 water supply amounts.

In the above embodiment, the connection valve 10
Although the example in which the valve opening degrees a and 10b are input online to the water distribution block operation state calculating means 3 is shown, this valve opening degree may be manually input to the water distribution block operation state calculating means 3.

[0037]

As described above, according to the present invention,
Even when the connection valve opening of the connection pipe connecting each water distribution block changes variously and the water distribution system from the water supply source to the water distribution block changes, the water supply amount of the water supply source can be reliably predicted.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a basic configuration of a demand prediction device for a water supply process according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing a specific configuration of a demand prediction device for a water supply process according to the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a model of pipeline information stored in a pipeline information file.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a relationship between a ratio depending on each water supply source of each water distribution block and a valve opening degree of a connection valve.

FIG. 5 is a configuration diagram of a conventional demand prediction device.

[Explanation of symbols]

 DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Demand prediction apparatus 2a, 2b, 2c Demand prediction means 3 Water distribution block operation state calculation means 4 Pipe line information file 5 Water supply amount prediction means 6a, 6b Prediction value file 10a, 10b Connection valve 11 Water purification plant 12a, 12b, 12c Water distribution block 15 Connecting pipe 19 Water supply pump

──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continuing on the front page (72) Kazuya Minami 1-1-1, Shibaura, Minato-ku, Tokyo Inside the head office of Toshiba Corporation (72) Inventor Tadayoshi Murayama 1-1-1, Shibaura, Minato-ku, Tokyo No. 1 In the head office of Toshiba Corporation (56) References JP-A-48-101753 (JP, A) (58) Fields investigated (Int. Cl. ⁶ , DB name) E03B 1/00 E03B 5/00

Claims (1)

(57) [Claims] 1. A demand forecasting apparatus for a water supply process comprising a plurality of water distribution blocks, a water supply source for supplying water to the water distribution blocks via connection pipes connecting the water distribution blocks, and a connection valve attached to the connection pipes. A relational expression between the demand for each water distribution block and the weather data is built in advance, a demand forecasting means for obtaining a demand forecast for each water distribution block based on the forecast information of the weather data, and an opening degree of each connection valve. Distribution block operation state calculating means for calculating a ratio of each distribution block depending on each water supply source based on the water supply block, a demand forecast amount of each distribution block obtained by the demand forecasting means,
Water supply process prediction means for calculating the water supply amount of each water supply source based on the ratio of each distribution block receiving water from each water supply source obtained by the water distribution block operation state input means. Demand forecasting device.