JP4280045B2

JP4280045B2 - Production volume calculation method, production volume calculation device, production volume calculation system, production volume calculation program and recording medium

Info

Publication number: JP4280045B2
Application number: JP2002259253A
Authority: JP
Inventors: 孝丁子; 晋八木; 大介前田; 雅史小川
Original assignee: Shiseido Co Ltd
Current assignee: Shiseido Co Ltd
Priority date: 2002-09-04
Filing date: 2002-09-04
Publication date: 2009-06-17
Anticipated expiration: 2022-09-04
Also published as: JP2004102357A

Description

【０００１】
【発明の属する技術分野】
本発明は、生産量算定方法，生産量算定装置，生産量算定システム，生産量算定プログラムおよび記録媒体に係り、特に製品の需要予測を行い、その需要予測に応じて製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定方法，生産量算定装置，生産量算定システム，生産量算定プログラムおよび記録媒体に関する。
【０００２】
【従来の技術】
例えばメーカは、製品開発および販売施策を企画・立案した時点の販売計画に基づいて生産計画を立案・実行しつつ、市場の状況に応じて販売計画や生産計画を適宜修正していくのが一般的である。
【０００３】
しかし、流行やトレンドに左右されやすいファッション性の高い製品（例えば化粧品など）は、店頭での販売状況やメーカーからの出荷状況を予測することが難しいという特徴を有する。したがって、ファッション性の高い製品は販売計画や生産計画通りに推移することが少なかった。
【０００４】
また、ファッション性の高い製品は、売れる期間を外れると急速に需要が縮小することが多いという特徴を有する。したがって、販売量が当初の販売計画より著しく少ない場合、ファッション性の高い製品は長期に渡り解消し難い過剰在庫となって資産効率を圧迫することがあった。さらに、販売量が当初の販売計画より著しく多い場合、ファッション性の高い製品は売れる期間に欠品が発生し、甚大な販売機会損失となることがあった。
【０００５】
したがって、ファッション性の高い製品を生産するメーカは、製品発売後に需要を見極めても生産計画の修正が間に合わないことも多く、製品発売前に需要を見極めて生産計画を修正することが求められていた。
【０００６】
【発明が解決しようとする課題】
しかしながら、ファッション性の高い製品の需要を製品発売前に見極めることは非常に難しいという問題があった。また、ファッション性の高い製品の需要予測は属人的な業務であって、必要な市場情報の確保，販売および生産の修正計画の立案作業が個々の担当者のスキルやノウハウに依存した状態であるという問題があった。
【０００７】
したがって、ファッション性の高い製品の需要予測に関する業務のノウハウは一部の担当者の属人的なスキルやノウハウとして存在するため、新しい担当者への引継ぎが難しいという問題があった。
【０００８】
本発明は、上記の点に鑑みなされたもので、製品発売前または製品発売後における製品の需要予測を容易かつ的確に行うことができ、その需要予測に応じた製品の生産量を容易かつ的確に算定することが可能な生産量算定方法，生産量算定装置，生産量算定システム，生産量算定プログラムおよび記録媒体を提供することを目的とする。
【０００９】
【課題を解決するための手段】
そこで、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、コンピュータを用いて、製品の需要予測を行い、前記需要予測に応じて製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定方法であって、発売前の製品に関する市場情報を取得する市場情報取得段階と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売前の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測段階と、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成段階と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定段階とを有することを特徴とする。
【００１０】
前記発売前の製品に関する市場情報は、前記製品の評価情報および予約実績情報を含んでもよい。
【００１１】
前記需要予測段階は、前記類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の評価情報および予約実績情報と、前記類似製品または類似製品群の発売後の販売実績情報とを取得する段階と、前記類似製品または類似製品群の前記評価情報および予約実績情報と前記販売実績情報との関係に応じて前記製品の評価情報および予約実績情報から前記製品の需要予測を行う段階とを有してもよい。
【００１２】
前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報は、前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報を含んでもよい。
【００１３】
前記需給調整情報作成段階は、前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報に応じて、前記需要予測結果に含まれる前記製品の販売予測値から前記製品の販売予測情報，在庫予測情報および出荷予測情報を前記需給調整情報として作成してもよい。
【００１４】
前記需給調整情報作成段階は、ユーザにより選択された前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報を取得して前記ユーザに提示する段階と、前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報をユーザからの指示により修正する段階と、前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報に応じて、前記需要予測結果に含まれる前記製品の販売予測値から前記製品の販売予測情報，在庫予測情報および出荷予測情報を前記需給調整情報として作成する段階とを有してもよい。
【００１５】
また、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、コンピュータを用いて、製品の需要予測を行い、前記需要予測に応じて製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定方法であって、発売後の製品に関する市場情報を取得する市場情報取得段階と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売後の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測段階と、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成段階と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定段階とを有することを特徴とする。
【００１６】
前記発売後の製品に関する市場情報は、一部の販売店かつ第１の期間における前記製品の販売実績情報を含んでもよい。
【００１７】
前記需要予測段階は、前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報を取得する段階と、前記類似製品または類似製品群の前記販売実績情報に応じて、前記一部の販売店かつ第１の期間における前記製品の販売実績情報から全部の販売店かつ第１の期間より長い第２の期間における前記製品の需要予測を行う段階とを有してもよい。
【００１８】
前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報は、前記一部の販売店かつ第１の期間における前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報と、全部の販売店かつ第１の期間より長い第２の期間における前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報との関係を表す係数を含み、前記係数を用いて前記一部の販売店かつ第１の期間における前記製品の販売実績情報から全部の販売店かつ第１の期間より長い第２の期間における前記製品の需要予測を行ってもよい。
【００１９】
前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報は、前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報を含んでもよい。
【００２０】
前記需給調整情報作成段階は、前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報に応じて、前記需要予測結果に含まれる前記製品の販売予測値から前記製品の販売予測情報，在庫予測情報および出荷予測情報を前記需給調整情報として作成してもよい。
【００２１】
前記需給調整情報作成段階は、ユーザにより選択された前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報を取得して前記ユーザに提示する段階と、前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報をユーザからの指示により修正する段階と、前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報，在庫実績情報および出荷実績情報に応じて、前記需要予測結果に含まれる前記製品の販売予測値から前記製品の販売予測情報，在庫予測情報および出荷予測情報を前記需給調整情報として作成する段階とを有してもよい。
【００２２】
また、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、製品の需要予測を行い、前記需要予測に応じて製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定装置であって、発売前の製品に関する市場情報を取得する市場情報取得手段と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報，発売後の販売実績情報および需給実績情報を格納する類似製品情報格納手段と、前記類似製品情報格納手段から前記類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売前の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測手段と、前記類似製品情報格納手段から前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報を取得し、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成手段と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手段とを有することを特徴とする。
【００２３】
また、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、製品の需要予測を行い、前記需要予測に応じて製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定装置であって、発売後の製品に関する市場情報を取得する市場情報取得手段と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報および需給実績情報を格納する類似製品情報格納手段と、前記類似製品情報格納手段から前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売後の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測手段と、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成手段と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手段とを有することを特徴とする。
【００２４】
また、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、１つ以上の販売店から製品に関する市場情報を収集する市場情報収集手段と、前記市場情報を用いて製品の需要予測を行い、前記需要予測に応じて製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手段とを有する生産量算定システムであって、前記生産量算定手段は、発売前の製品に関する市場情報を前記市場情報収集手段から取得する市場情報取得手段と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報，発売後の販売実績情報および需給実績情報を格納する類似製品情報格納手段と、前記類似製品情報格納手段から前記類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売前の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測手段と、前記類似製品情報格納手段から前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報を取得し、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成手段と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手段とを有することを特徴とする。
【００２５】
また、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、１つ以上の販売店から製品に関する市場情報を収集する市場情報収集手段と、前記市場情報を用いて製品の需要予測を行い、前記需要予測に応じて製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手段とを有する生産量算定システムであって、前記生産量算定手段は、発売後の製品に関する市場情報を前記市場情報収集手段から取得する市場情報取得手段と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報および需給実績情報を格納する類似製品情報格納手段と、前記類似製品情報格納手段から前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売後の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測手段と、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成手段と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手段とを有することを特徴とする。
【００２６】
また、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、コンピュータに、発売前の製品に関する市場情報を取得する市場情報取得手順と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売前の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測手順と、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成手順と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手順とを実行させるための生産量算定プログラムであることを特徴とする。
【００２７】
また、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、コンピュータに、発売後の製品に関する市場情報を取得する市場情報取得手順と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売後の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測手順と、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成手順と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手順とを実行させるための生産量算定プログラムであることを特徴とする。
【００２８】
また、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、コンピュータに、発売前の製品に関する市場情報を取得する市場情報取得手順と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売前の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の発売前の市場情報および発売後の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測手順と、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成手順と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手順とを実行させるための生産量算定プログラムを記録したコンピュータ読み取り可能な記録媒体であることを特徴とする。
【００２９】
また、上記課題を解決するため、本発明は、コンピュータに、発売後の製品に関する市場情報を取得する市場情報取得手順と、前記製品に類似する類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報を取得し、前記製品の発売後の市場情報，前記類似製品または類似製品群の販売実績情報に応じて前記製品の需要予測を行う需要予測手順と、前記製品の需要予測結果，前記類似製品または類似製品群の需給実績情報に応じて需給調整情報を作成する需給調整情報作成手順と、前記需給調整情報に応じて前記製品の生産量を算定する生産量算定手順とを実行させるための生産量算定プログラムを記録したコンピュータ読み取り可能な記録媒体であることを特徴とする。
【００３０】
なお、生産量算定プログラムを記録したコンピュータ読み取り可能な記録媒体は、ＣＤ−ＲＯＭ、フレキシブルディスク、光磁気ディスク（ＭＯ）等の様に情報を光学的，電気的或いは磁気的に記録する記録媒体、ＲＯＭ、フラッシュメモリ等の様に情報を電気的に記録する半導体メモリ等、様々なタイプを用いることができる。
【００３１】
本発明によれば、製品発売前または製品発売後における製品の需要予測を容易かつ的確に行うことができ、その需要予測に応じた製品の生産量を容易かつ的確に算定することが可能である。
【００３２】
【発明の実施の形態】
次に、本発明の実施の形態について図面に基づいて説明する。
【００３３】
図１は、本発明の生産量算定システムの一実施例の構成図を示す。生産量算定システム１は、生産量算定装置１００と，ＰＯＳ（Point Of Sales）等のデータ入力用サーバ２００と，データ入力用端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎと，本社用端末３００と，工場用端末４００と，イントラネットなどのネットワーク２０２，５００とを有するように構成される。
【００３４】
データ入力用端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎは１つ以上の販売店，メーカーの調査部門，メーカーからの委託を受けた調査会社またはメーカーの支社などに設置されており、発売前の製品（以下、発売前製品という）に関する市場情報（例えば、製品の予約実績情報，製品の評価情報など）または発売後の製品（以下、発売後製品という）に関する市場情報（例えば、製品の売上情報，店頭在庫情報など）を従業員の操作に応じて収集する。
【００３５】
データ入力用端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎは、必要に応じてネットワーク２０２を介してデータ入力用サーバ２００に接続し、収集した市場情報を逐次又は所定時間毎にデータ入力用サーバ２００に送信する。なお、製品の評価情報はデータ入力用端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎでの収集に限ることなく、紙ベースでの収集であってもよい。
【００３６】
データ入力用端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎは全ての販売店に設置されるものではなく、全ての販売店の一部（例えば、２〜３％）に設置される。本実施例では、データ入力用端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎが設置された販売店のうち、製品の需要予測に用いる市場情報を収集する販売店をサンプル店と呼ぶ。また、データ入力用端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎが設置された販売店のうち、拡大推計に用いる市場情報を収集する販売店をパネル店と呼ぶ。なお、データ入力用端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎが設置された販売店はサンプル店とパネル店とを兼ねてもよい。
【００３７】
データ入力用サーバ２００は、Ｐ０Ｓ端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎから受信した市場情報を集計管理する。データ入力用サーバ２００は、ネットワーク５００を介して生産量算定装置１００に接続されており、集計管理している市場情報を生産量算定装置１００に送信する。なお、データ入力用サーバ２００と、データ入力用端末２０１ａ〜２０１ｎと，ネットワーク２０２とは、データ入力用システムを構成する。
【００３８】
本社用端末３００は、メーカーの本社に設置されている。本社用端末３００はネットワーク５００を介して生産量算定装置１００に接続されており、メーカー出荷情報やメーカー在庫情報などを生産量算定装置１００に送信する。また、本社用端末３００は業務に関わる情報（例えば、市場情報，生産計画情報など）をユーザからの指示に応じて生産量算定装置１００から取得し、その情報をユーザに閲覧させる。
【００３９】
工場用端末４００は１つ以上の工場に設置されており、ネットワーク５００を介して生産量算定装置１００に接続されている。工場用端末４００は業務に関わる情報（例えば、市場情報，生産計画情報，生産量など）をユーザからの指示に応じて生産量算定装置１００から取得し、その情報をユーザに閲覧させる。
【００４０】
生産量算定装置１００はネットワーク５００を介してデータ入力用サーバ２００，本社用端末３００，工場用端末４００に接続されている。生産量算定装置１００はデータ入力用サーバ２００から受信する市場情報，本社用端末３００から受信するメーカー出荷情報やメーカー在庫情報などを用いて発売前または発売後における製品の需要予測を行い、その需要予測に応じて製品の生産量を算定することで、生産計画の作成または修正を的確かつ容易に行うことができる。
【００４１】
また、生産量算定装置１００はデータ入力用サーバ２００から受信した市場情報，本社用端末３００から受信したメーカー出荷情報やメーカー在庫情報，需要予測情報，生産計画情報などを業務に関わる情報として管理し、その業務に関わる情報を本社用端末３００または工場用端末４００からの要求に応じて提供する。生産量算定装置１００は、業務に関わる情報を本社用端末３００と工場用端末４００との間で共有化するための処理を行う。
【００４２】
以下、本発明の生産量算定装置１００の詳細について更に説明していく。図２は、本発明の生産量算定装置の一実施例のハードウェア構成図を示す。
【００４３】
生産量算定装置１００は、それぞれバスＢで相互に接続されている入力装置１１と，表示装置１２と，ドライブ装置１３と，記録媒体１４と，補助記憶装置１５と，メモリ装置１６と，演算処理装置１７と，インターフェース装置１８と，データベース（以下、ＤＢという）１９とを有するように構成される。
【００４４】
入力装置１１はキーボード及びマウスなどで構成され、様々な操作指示を入力するために用いられる。表示装置１２は、操作に必要な各種ウインドウやデータ等を表示する。インターフェース装置１８は、ネットワーク５００に接続する為のインターフェースであり、例えばＬＡＮアダプタ，モデム（Modem）等で構成される。
【００４５】
ＤＢ１９は、本発明の生産量算定方法の処理に必要な各種情報（例えば、市場情報，需要予測情報，生産計画情報など）を管理する。なお、ＤＢサーバを別途設けて、ＤＢ１９に格納されている情報を管理させてもよい。
【００４６】
本発明の生産量算定プログラムは、ＣＤ−ＲＯＭ等の記録媒体１４によって提供される。生産量算定プログラムを記録した記録媒体１４は、ドライブ装置１３にセットされ、生産量算定プログラムが記録媒体１４からドライブ装置１３を介して補助記憶装置１５にインストールされる。
【００４７】
補助記憶装置１５は、インストールされた生産量算定プログラムを格納すると共に、生産量算定プログラムの処理に必要なファイルやデータ等を格納する。メモリ装置１６は、起動時に補助記憶装置１５から生産量算定プログラムを読み出して格納する。演算処理装置１７は、メモリ装置１６に格納された生産量算定プログラムに従って処理を実行する。
【００４８】
図３は、本発明の生産量算定装置の一実施例の機能構成図を示す。生産量算定装置１００は、発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０と，発売前製品の需要予測部１２０と，発売後製品の需要予測部１３０と，発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１４０と，需給調整情報作成部１５０と，需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０と，生産計画代替案作成部１７０と，需給調整情報共有化部１８０とを有するように構成される。
【００４９】
発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０は、過去に発売された製品（以下、参考品という）の発売前または発売後の市場情報を用いて、発売前製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータの策定業務を支援する。発売前製品の需要予測部１２０は、発売前製品に関する市場情報と、発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０が設定したパラメータとを用いて、発売前製品の需要予測（例えば、発売前製品の月間売上の予測など）を行う。
【００５０】
発売後製品の需要予測部１３０は、発売後製品に関する市場情報と、発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１４０が設定したパラメータとを用いて、発売後製品の需要予測（例えば、発売後製品の月間売上の予測など）を行う。発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１４０は、参考品の発売前または発売後の市場情報を用いて、発売後製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータの策定業務を支援する。
【００５１】
需給調整情報作成部１５０は、参考品の発売前または発売後の市場情報と，発売前製品の需要予測部１２０または発売後製品の需要予測部１３０が行った需要予測結果とを用いて、発売前製品または発売後製品の所定期間（例えば、３ヶ月など）の店頭売上予測値，店頭在庫予測値，メーカー出荷予測値などを算定する。
【００５２】
需給調整情報作成部１５０は、算定した店頭売上予測値，店頭在庫予測値，メーカー出荷予測値などに基づき、発売前製品または発売後製品のメーカー在庫適正値などを算定する。
【００５３】
需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０は、参考品の店頭売上実績値，店頭在庫実績値，メーカー在庫実績値，メーカー出荷実績値を用いて、発売前製品または発売後製品の所定期間の店頭売上予測値，店頭在庫予測値，メーカー在庫予測値，メーカー出荷予測値の算定に必要なパラメータの算定業務を支援する。
【００５４】
生産計画代替案作成部１７０は、需給調整情報作成部１５０が算定したメーカー在庫適正値と、メーカー在庫予測値との差（以下、在庫ギャップという）に基づき、在庫ギャップを解消できる生産計画の代替案を作成する。
【００５５】
需給調整情報共有化部１８０は、需給調整情報作成部１５０が算定した店頭売上予測値，店頭在庫予測値，メーカー出荷予測値，メーカー在庫適正値，メーカー在庫予測値などの需給調整情報と、生産計画代替案作成部１７０が作成した生産計画の代替案とをネットワーク５００上で共有化する。ネットワーク５００に接続可能な端末を有するメーカー，工場などの関連部門は、需給調整情報共有化部１８０により共有化された需給調整情報，生産計画の代替案などを容易に閲覧できる。
【００５６】
さらに、生産量算定装置１００を構成する各機能ブロックの処理について詳細に説明していく。図４は、発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部および発売前製品の需要予測部の一実施例の機能構成図を示す。
【００５７】
発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０は、ユーザにより選択された参考品の発売前または発売後の市場情報を用いて、発売前製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータを設定する。例えばユーザにより選択される参考品は、発売前製品の類似製品または類似製品群（例えば、ブランドなど）である。発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０は、参考品の評価情報，予約実績情報および店頭売上実績値をユーザに確認させることで、参考品の選択を支援する。
【００５８】
発売前製品の需要予測部１２０は、評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２１と，予約実績情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２２と，加重平均処理部１２３とを有するように構成される。
【００５９】
評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２１は、例えばデータ入力用サーバ２００から発売前製品の評価情報を受信する。なお、発売前製品の評価情報は紙ベースで収集されたものであってもよい。発売前製品の評価情報は、例えば販売店，メーカーの調査部門，メーカーからの委託を受けた調査会社またはメーカーの支社でアンケートなどを利用して収集される。また、評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２１は発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０から発売前製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータを受信する。
【００６０】
なお、評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２１は既存品に対して内容の強化を行う改良品の場合と、それ以外の場合とで異なる需要予測処理を行う。
【００６１】
改良品の場合、評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２１は、以下の式（１）〜（４）を用いて評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値を算定する。
【００６２】
Ｋ１＝Ａ÷Ｂ・・・・・（１）
Ｋ２＝（発売前製品の評価ポイント）÷Ｃ・・・・・（２）
Ｋ３＝Ｄ（定数）・・・・・（３）
Ｘ＝Ｅ×Ｋ１×Ｋ２×Ｋ３・・・・・（４）
なお、式（１）〜（４）では、評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値をＸ，参考品の初月度店頭売上実績値をＡ，参考品の改良後１年間の店頭売上実績値をＢ，参考品の評価情報に応じた評価ポイントをＣ，スポットＰＲ係数をＤ，今回改良対象の既存品の直近１年間の店頭売上実績値をＥとしている。Ａ，Ｂ，ＣおよびＤは、発売前製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータとして発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０から受信する。
【００６３】
改良品以外の場合、評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２１は、以下の式（５）を用いて評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値を算定する。
【００６４】
Ｘ＝Ｔ＋Ｓ×（発売前製品の評価ポイント）・・・・・（５）
なお、式（５）では、評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値をＸ，参考品の評価情報に応じた評価ポイントと参考品の店頭売上実績値とによる回帰切片をＴ，参考品の評価情報に応じた評価ポイントと参考品の店頭売上実績値とによる回帰係数をＳとしている。Ｔ，Ｓは、発売前製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータとして発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０から受信する。また、発売前製品の評価ポイントは発売前製品の評価情報に応じた評価ポイントである。
【００６５】
予約実績情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２２は、例えばデータ入力用サーバ２００から発売前製品の予約実績情報を受信する。また、予約実績情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２２は発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０から発売前製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータを受信する。そして、予約実績情報に基づく店頭売上予測値算定部１２２は、以下の式（６），（７）を用いて予約実績情報に基づく店頭売上予測値を算定する。
【００６６】
Ｋ４＝Ａ÷Ｇ・・・・・（６）
Ｙ＝（発売前製品の所定期間内（例えば発売２０日前まで）の一店平均予約実績値）×Ｋ４・・・・・（７）
なお、式（６），（７）では、予約実績情報に基づく店頭売上予測値をＹ，参考品の所定期間内（例えば発売２０日前まで）の一店平均予約実績値をＧとしている。Ａ，Ｇは、発売前製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータとして発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０から受信する。
【００６７】
加重平均処理部１２３は、評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値Ｘと予約実績情報に基づく店頭売上予測値Ｙとを受信し、その評価情報に基づく店頭売上予測値Ｘと予約実績情報に基づく店頭売上予測値Ｙとを以下の式（８）を用いて加重平均することで、発売前製品の需要予測を行う。具体的に、加重平均処理部１２３は式（８）を用いて発売前製品の店頭売上予測値を算定する。
【００６８】
Ｚ＝α×Ｘ＋β×Ｙ（α＋β＝１）・・・・・（８）
なお、式（８）では、発売前製品の店頭売上予測値をＺとしている。また、加重平均処理部１２３は、α，βを発売前製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータとして発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０から受信する。加重平均処理部１２３は、式（８）を用いて需要予測した店頭売上予測値Ｚを需給調整情報作成部１５０に送信する。
【００６９】
このように、発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０および発売前製品の需要予測部１２０を用いることで、発売前製品の評価情報および予約実績情報から所定期間の全体売上予測値を容易かつ的確に算定することができる。
【００７０】
図５は、発売後製品の需要予測部および発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部の一実施例の構成図を示す。
【００７１】
発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１４０は、ユーザにより選択された参考品の発売後の市場情報を用いて、発売後製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータを設定する。例えばユーザにより選択される参考品は、発売後製品の類似製品または類似製品群である。発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１４０は、参考品の店頭売上実績値に応じた発売５日後，１０日後，２０日後などの引き伸ばし係数，拡大係数をユーザに確認させることで、参考品の選択を支援する。
【００７２】
発売後製品の需要予測部１３０は、需要予測処理部１３１と，拡大推計処理部１３２とを有するように構成される。需要予測処理部１３１は、発売後製品の店頭売上実績値を例えばデータ入力用サーバ２００から受信する。また、需要予測処理部１３１は、発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１４０から需要予測処理に必要なパラメータを受信する。なお、発売後製品の店頭売上実績値はサンプル店全店における数日間の店頭売上実績値である。
【００７３】
そこで、需要予測処理部１３１は需要予測処理に必要なパラメータとして参考品の引き伸ばし係数を受信し、発売後製品の店頭売上実績値からサンプル店全店における所定期間（例えば、１ヶ月間）の店頭売上予測値を算定する。需要予測処理部１３１は、算定したサンプル店全店における所定期間の店頭売上予測値を拡大推計処理部１３２に送信する。
【００７４】
拡大推計処理部１３２は、需要予測処理部１３１からサンプル店全店における所定期間の店頭売上予測値を受信すると共に、発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１４０から拡大推計処理に必要なパラメータを受信する。
【００７５】
そこで、拡大推計処理部１３２は拡大推計処理に必要なパラメータとして参考品の拡大係数を受信し、サンプル店全店における所定期間の店頭売上実績値から全ての販売店（サンプル店およびパネル店以外の販売店を含む）における所定期間の全体売上予測値に拡大推定する。拡大推計処理部１３２は、拡大推定した全体売上予測値を需給調整情報作成部１５０に送信する。
【００７６】
このように、発売後製品の需要予測部１３０および発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１４０を用いることで、発売後製品の数日間の店頭売上実績値から所定期間の全体売上予測値を容易かつ的確に算定することができる。
【００７７】
なお、発売前製品の需要予測部１２０および発売後製品の需要予測部１３０は例えばデータ入力用サーバ２００から逐次又は所定時間毎に発売前製品，発売後製品または参考品に関する市場情報を受信し、全体売上予測値を更新する。また、発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１１０および発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部１４０は、データ入力用サーバ２００から送信される発売前製品，発売後製品または参考品に関する市場情報に応じて、発売前製品または発売後製品の需要予測に必要なパラメータを逐次又は所定時間毎に更新する。
【００７８】
図６は、需給調整情報作成部および需給調整パラメータ設定部の一実施例の構成図を示す。需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０は、ユーザにより選択された参考品の店頭売上実績値，店頭在庫実績値，メーカー在庫実績値およびメーカー出荷実績値を用いて、発売前製品または発売後製品の所定期間の店頭売上予測処理，店頭在庫予測処理，メーカー出荷予測処理およびメーカー在庫予測処理に必要なパラメータを設定する。例えばユーザにより選択される参考品は、発売前製品または発売後製品の類似製品または類似製品群である。
【００７９】
需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０は、商品特性や商品カテゴリなどの検索キーを用いて発売前製品または発売後製品に類似する製品または製品群などをＤＢ１９から検索する検索機能をユーザに提供する。
【００８０】
図７は、参考品選択画面の一例のイメージ図を示す。図７の参考品選択画面では、シリーズ，美容法分類Ａ，美容法分類Ｂ，発売年月，製品コード，製品名を検索キーとして利用することができる。
【００８１】
検索キーに対応する製品または製品群が検索されると、需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０は検索された製品または製品群の店頭売上実績，店頭在庫実績，メーカー出荷実績の店頭売上実績に対する比率などの情報（以下、データセットという）を参考品選択画面の所定場所に表示する。ユーザは、参考品選択画面の所定場所に表示されたデータセットを参考にして製品または製品群から参考品を選択することができる。
【００８２】
需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０は、選択された参考品の店頭売上実績値，店頭在庫実績値，メーカー在庫実績値およびメーカー出荷実績値を用いて、発売前製品または発売後製品の所定期間の店頭売上予測処理，店頭在庫予測処理，メーカー出荷予測処理およびメーカー在庫予測処理に必要なパラメータを設定し、そのパラメータを需給調整情報作成部１５０に送信する。
【００８３】
需給調整情報作成部１５０は、店頭売上予測処理部１５１と，店頭在庫予測処理部１５２と，メーカー出荷予測処理部１５３と，メーカー在庫適正値算定部１５４と，メーカー在庫予測処理部１５５とを有するように構成される。
【００８４】
店頭売上予測処理部１５１は、発売前製品の需要予測部１２０または発売後製品の需要予測部１３０から所定期間の全体売上予測値を受信する。また、店頭売上予測処理部１５１は需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０から店頭売上予測処理に必要なパラメータとして参考品の店頭売上実績値を受信する。店頭売上予測処理部１５１は、参考品の店頭売上実績値の推移と所定期間の全体売上予測値とを用いて店頭売上予測を行う。
【００８５】
例えば、参考品の店頭売上実績値が図８（Ａ）のような月毎の店頭売上推移パターンである場合、店頭売上予測処理部１５１は図９（Ａ）のような月毎の店頭売上予測値を算定する。
【００８６】
図８（Ａ）の店頭売上推移パターンは、参考品の初月の店頭売上を１００％とした場合の次月以降の店頭売上を表すものである。また、図９（Ａ）の店頭売上予測値は初月の全体売上予測値を２０万個とした場合の次月以降の店頭売上予測値を表すものである。
【００８７】
店頭在庫予測処理部１５２は需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０から店頭在庫予測処理に必要なパラメータとして参考品の店頭在庫実績値を受信する。店頭在庫予測処理部１５２は、参考品の店頭在庫実績値の推移を用いて店頭在庫予測を行う。
【００８８】
例えば、参考品の店頭在庫実績値が図８（Ｂ）のような月毎の店頭在庫推移である場合、店頭在庫予測処理部１５２は図９（Ｂ）のような月毎の店頭在庫予測値を算定する。
【００８９】
メーカー出荷予測処理部１５３は、店頭売上予測処理部１５１と店頭在庫予測処理部１５２から所定期間の予測値を受信する。また、メーカー出荷予測処理部１５３は需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０からメーカー出荷予測処理に必要なパラメータとして参考品の所定期間の店頭売上実績値とメーカー出荷実績値を受信する。メーカー出荷予測処理部１５３は、所定期間全体のメーカー出荷予測値を、所定期間全体の店頭売上予測値に、所定期間後の店頭在庫予測値を加えた合計値と設定し、月毎のメーカー出荷予測値については、参考品のメーカー出荷の店頭売上実績に対する比率を用いてメーカー出荷予測を行う。
【００９０】
例えば、参考品のメーカー出荷実績値が図８（Ｃ）のような月毎のメーカー出荷の店頭売上実績に対する比率である場合、メーカー出荷予測処理部１５３は図９（Ｃ）のような月毎のメーカー出荷予測値を算定する。
【００９１】
メーカー在庫適正値算定部１５４は、メーカー出荷予測処理部１５３からメーカー出荷予測値を受信する。また、メーカー在庫適正値算定部１５４は需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０からメーカー在庫適正値の算定に必要なパラメータを受信する。メーカー在庫適正値算定部１５４は、メーカー出荷予測値とメーカー在庫適正値の算定に必要なパラメータとを用いてメーカー在庫適正値を算定する。
【００９２】
メーカー在庫予測処理部１５５は、店頭売上予測処理部１５１から所定期間の全体売上予測値を受信する。また、メーカー在庫予測処理部１５５は需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０からメーカー在庫予測処理に必要なパラメータとして生産計画値を受信する。メーカー在庫予測処理部１５５は、生産計画値とメーカー出荷予測値とを用いてメーカー在庫予測を行う。
【００９３】
このように、需給調整情報作成部１５０および需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０を用いることで、店頭売上予測値，店頭在庫予測値，メーカー出荷予測値，メーカー在庫適正値およびメーカー在庫予測値を容易かつ的確に算定することができる。
【００９４】
なお、ユーザは図１０のようなシミュレーション画面を利用して需給調整情報作成部１５０に対する指示を行うことができる。これは、需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０から受信したパラメータをユーザが適宜修正できるようにするためのものである。
【００９５】
図１０は、需給調整用画面の一例の構成図を示す。需給調整パラメータ設定部１６０からパラメータとして店頭売上推移パターンを受信すると、需給調整情報作成部１５０は受信した店頭売上推移パターンを需給調整用画面の欄６０３に表示する。
【００９６】
例えば発売前製品の需要予測部１２０または発売後製品の需要予測部１３０から所定期間の全体売上予測値を受信すると、店頭売上予測処理部１５１は欄６０１に全体売上予測値（例えば、７５００００個）を表示すると共に、欄６０３に表示された店頭売上推移パターンに応じて次月，次々月および３ヶ月の店頭売上予測値（例えば、次月１５００００個，次々月９８０００個，３ヶ月９９８０００個）を算定して欄６０２に表示する。
【００９７】
需給調整情報作成部１５０は、３ヶ月後の店頭在庫として、参考品の３ヶ月後の店頭在庫実績を、欄６０４に表示する。需給調整情報作成部１５０は、３ヶ月後のメーカー出荷を、３ヶ月間の店頭売上予測値に、３ヶ月後の店頭在庫予測値を加えた合計値として予測する。需給調整情報作成部１５０は、初月，次月，次々月の参考品のメーカー出荷の、店頭売上実績に対する比率から算定して、欄６０５に表示する。
【００９８】
発売後は、メーカー出荷の初月予測値を、メーカー出荷実績値と参考品のメーカー出荷実績に基づいた出荷パターンによるメーカー出荷予測値から求め直し、その際、次月以降のメーカー出荷予測値が、参考品のメーカー出荷の店頭売上実績に対する比率に照らしバランスを崩す場合、店頭売上推移パターンと３ヶ月後の店頭在庫予測値を適宜調整し、メーカー出荷予測値を変更できる。
【００９９】
したがって、ユーザは図１０の需給調整用画面を利用することで、需給調整情報の作成に必要なパラメータを適宜修正することができ、店頭売上予測値，店頭在庫予測値，メーカー出荷予測値を容易かつ的確に算定することができる。
【０１００】
図３の生産計画代替案作成部１７０は、需給調整情報作成部１５０からメーカー在庫適正値およびメーカー在庫予測値を受信して在庫ギャップを算定し、その在庫ギャップを解消するための必要生産量に応じた生産計画の代替案を作成する。生産計画代替案作成部１７０は、作成した生産計画の代替案をグラフ化してユーザに確認させることもできる。なお、生産計画の代替案と実際の生産計画とを置き換えは、予め定められた所定のルール（例えば、毎月１日，１５日など）に応じて行うことが望ましい。
【０１０１】
図３の需給調整情報共有化部１８０は、需給調整情報作成部１５０が算定した店頭売上予測値，店頭在庫予測値，メーカー出荷予測値，メーカー在庫適正値，メーカー在庫予測値などの需給調整情報，生産計画代替案作成部１７０が作成した生産計画の代替案などを受信し、受信した需給調整情報，生産計画代替案などをＤＢ１９に格納する。
【０１０２】
そして、需給調整情報共有化部１８０はＤＢ１９に格納した需給調整情報，生産計画代替案などを、ネットワーク５００に接続可能な端末を有するメーカー，工場などの関連部門で共有化するための処理を行う。
【０１０３】
例えば需給調整情報共有化部１８０は、ＤＢ１９に格納した需給調整情報，生産計画代替案などを図１１〜図１４のようにグラフ化し、ネットワーク５００に接続可能な端末を有するメーカー，工場などの関連部門に供給する。
【０１０４】
図１１は、店頭売上情報表示画面の一例のイメージ図を示す。図１２は、メーカー出荷情報表示画面の一例のイメージ図を示す。図１３は、メーカー在庫情報表示画面の一例のイメージ図を示す。また、図１４は生産情報表示画面の一例のイメージ図を示す。なお、図１１〜図１４のイメージ図は一例であって、これに限るものではない。
【０１０５】
したがって、ユーザはグラフ化された需給調整情報，生産計画代替案などを容易に閲覧することができるので、需給調整に関わる意志決定の迅速化を図ると共に、業務ノウハウの共有化及び業務教育の効率化を図ることが可能である。
【０１０６】
【発明の効果】
上述の如く、本発明によれば、製品発売前または製品発売後における製品の需要予測を容易かつ的確に行うことができ、その需要予測に応じた製品の生産量を容易かつ的確に算定することが可能である。
【０１０７】
【図面の簡単な説明】
【図１】本発明の生産量算定システムの一実施例の構成図である。
【図２】本発明の生産量算定装置の一実施例のハードウェア構成図である。
【図３】本発明の生産量算定装置の一実施例の機能構成図である。
【図４】発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部および発売前製品の需要予測部の一実施例の機能構成図である。
【図５】発売後製品の需要予測部および発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部の一実施例の構成図である。
【図６】需給調整情報作成部および需給調整パラメータ設定部の一実施例の構成図である。
【図７】参考品選択画面の一例のイメージ図である。
【図８】需給調整パラメータ設定部が設定するパラメータの一例について説明する図である。
【図９】パラメータに応じて算定される予測値の一例について説明する図である。
【図１０】需給調整用画面の一例の構成図である。
【図１１】店頭売上情報表示画面の一例のイメージ図である。
【図１２】メーカー出荷情報表示画面の一例のイメージ図である。
【図１３】メーカー在庫情報表示画面の一例のイメージ図である。
【図１４】生産情報表示画面の一例のイメージ図である。
【符号の説明】
１生産量算定システム
１１入力装置
１２表示装置
１３ドライブ装置
１４記録媒体
１５補助記憶装置
１６メモリ装置
１７演算処理装置
１８インターフェース装置
１９データベース（ＤＢ）
１００生産量算定装置
１１０発売前製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部
１２０発売前製品の需要予測部
１３０発売後製品の需要予測部
１４０発売後製品の需要予測パラメータ設定部
１５０需給調整情報作成部
１６０需給調整パラメータ設定部
１７０生産計画代替案作成部
１８０需給調整情報共有化部
２００データ入力用サーバ
２０１ａ〜２０１ｎデータ入力用端末
３００本社用端末
４００工場用端末
２０２，５００ネットワーク
Ｂバス[0001]
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to a production amount calculation method, a production amount calculation device, a production amount calculation system, a production amount calculation program, and a recording medium, and in particular, predicts a demand for a product and calculates a production amount of the product according to the demand prediction. The present invention relates to a production volume calculation method, a production volume calculation device, a production volume calculation system, a production volume calculation program, and a recording medium.
[0002]
[Prior art]
For example, manufacturers generally devise and execute production plans based on sales plans at the time of planning and planning product development and sales measures, and modify sales plans and production plans as appropriate according to market conditions. Is.
[0003]
However, highly fashionable products (such as cosmetics) that are easily influenced by trends and trends have a feature that it is difficult to predict the sales situation at a store or the shipping situation from a manufacturer. Therefore, highly fashionable products rarely changed according to sales plans and production plans.
[0004]
In addition, products with high fashionability are characterized in that demand often decreases rapidly when the selling period is exceeded. Therefore, if the sales volume is significantly lower than the initial sales plan, high fashion products may become overstock that is difficult to resolve over the long term, putting pressure on asset efficiency. Furthermore, if the sales volume is significantly higher than the initial sales plan, high-fashion products may be out of stock during the selling period, resulting in a significant loss of sales opportunities.
[0005]
Therefore, manufacturers that produce highly fashionable products often find demand after product launch, but the production plan is often not revised in time, and are required to identify demand before product launch and modify the production plan. It was.
[0006]
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
However, there is a problem that it is very difficult to determine the demand for highly fashionable products before the product is released. In addition, demand forecast for highly fashionable products is a personal task, and it is necessary to secure necessary market information, and to plan sales and production correction plans depending on the skills and know-how of each person in charge. There was a problem that there was.
[0007]
Therefore, there is a problem that it is difficult to transfer to a new person in charge because the know-how regarding the demand forecast of products with high fashionability exists as personal skills and know-how of some persons in charge.
[0008]
The present invention has been made in view of the above points, and can easily and accurately predict a demand for a product before or after the product is released, and easily and accurately estimate the production amount of the product according to the demand prediction. The purpose is to provide a production amount calculation method, a production amount calculation device, a production amount calculation system, a production amount calculation program, and a recording medium that can be calculated.
[0009]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
Therefore, in order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the present invention is a production amount calculation method for predicting a demand for a product using a computer, and calculating a production amount of the product according to the demand prediction. A market information acquisition stage for acquiring market information about the product, market information before sale of similar products or similar product groups similar to the product and sales performance information after sale, and market information before sale of the product, Demand forecasting stage for forecasting the demand of the product according to market information before sale of similar products or similar products and sales performance information after sale, demand forecast results of the products, supply and demand of the similar products or similar products It has a supply-demand adjustment information creation stage that creates supply-demand adjustment information according to performance information, and a production volume calculation stage that calculates the production volume of the product according to the supply-demand adjustment information.
[0010]
The market information related to the product before release may include evaluation information and reservation performance information of the product.
[0011]
The demand forecasting step includes obtaining evaluation information and reservation performance information before the sale of the similar product or similar product group, and sales performance information after the sales of the similar product or similar product group, and the similar product or You may have the step which performs the demand forecast of the said product from the evaluation information and reservation performance information of the said product according to the relationship between the said evaluation information and reservation performance information of the similar product group, and the said sales performance information.
[0012]
The supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group may include sales performance information, inventory performance information, and shipping performance information of the similar product or similar product group.
[0013]
In the supply and demand adjustment information creation stage, the sales forecast of the product is calculated from the sales forecast value of the product included in the demand forecast result according to the sales performance information, inventory performance information and shipping performance information of the similar product or similar product group. Information, inventory prediction information, and shipping prediction information may be created as the supply and demand adjustment information.
[0014]
The supply and demand adjustment information creation step includes the step of acquiring sales result information, inventory result information and shipment result information of the similar product or similar product group selected by the user and presenting the same to the user, and the similar product or similar product. The demand forecast according to the stage of correcting the sales performance information, inventory performance information and shipping performance information of the group according to the instruction from the user, and the sales performance information, inventory performance information and shipping performance information of the similar product or similar product group Creating sales forecast information, inventory forecast information, and shipping forecast information of the product as the supply and demand adjustment information from the sales forecast value of the product included in the result.
[0015]
Further, in order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention is a production amount calculation method for predicting a demand for a product using a computer, and calculating a production amount of the product according to the demand prediction. A market information acquisition stage for acquiring market information, and sales performance information of similar products or similar product groups similar to the product, and market information after the product is released, sales results of the similar products or similar product groups A demand forecasting stage for forecasting the demand of the product according to information; a demand forecasting information creating stage for creating demand / demand adjustment information according to the demand forecasting result of the product, the demand / supply performance information of the similar product or similar product group; A production amount calculating step of calculating a production amount of the product according to the supply and demand adjustment information.
[0016]
The market information related to the product after the release may include sales performance information of the product in some dealers and the first period.
[0017]
The demand forecasting step includes the step of obtaining sales performance information of the similar product or similar product group, and the some store and the first period according to the sales performance information of the similar product or similar product group. A step of predicting demand of the product in a second period longer than the first period from all sales stores information on the sales performance information of the product.
[0018]
The sales performance information of the similar product or similar product group includes the sales history information of the similar product or similar product group in the first period and the sales history information of all the sales stores and the first period. Including a coefficient representing a relationship with the sales performance information of the similar product or similar product group in the period 2, and using the coefficient, all the sales results information of the product in the first period and the partial sales store The demand prediction of the product in the second period longer than the first period may be performed at the store.
[0019]
The supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group may include sales performance information, inventory performance information, and shipping performance information of the similar product or similar product group.
[0020]
In the supply and demand adjustment information creation stage, the sales forecast of the product is calculated from the sales forecast value of the product included in the demand forecast result according to the sales performance information, inventory performance information and shipping performance information of the similar product or similar product group. Information, inventory prediction information, and shipping prediction information may be created as the supply and demand adjustment information.
[0021]
The supply and demand adjustment information creation step includes the step of acquiring sales result information, inventory result information and shipment result information of the similar product or similar product group selected by the user and presenting the same to the user, and the similar product or similar product. The demand forecast according to the stage of correcting the sales performance information, inventory performance information and shipping performance information of the group according to the instruction from the user, and the sales performance information, inventory performance information and shipping performance information of the similar product or similar product group Creating sales forecast information, inventory forecast information, and shipping forecast information of the product as the supply and demand adjustment information from the sales forecast value of the product included in the result.
[0022]
Further, in order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention is a production amount calculation device that performs a demand prediction of a product and calculates a production amount of the product according to the demand prediction, and acquires market information about the product before the release. Market information acquisition means, similar product information storage means for storing pre-release market information of similar products or similar product groups similar to the products, sales performance information and supply / demand performance information after sales, and similar product information storage The market information before the sale of the similar product or the similar product group and the sales performance information after the sale are acquired from the means, the market information before the sale of the product, the market information and the sale of the similar product or the similar product group before the sale. Demand forecasting means for forecasting the demand of the product in accordance with subsequent sales performance information; and obtaining supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group from the similar product information storage means; Supply / demand adjustment information generating means for generating supply / demand adjustment information according to demand forecast results, supply / demand actual information of the similar product or similar product group, and production quantity calculating means for calculating the production amount of the product according to the supply / demand adjustment information It is characterized by having.
[0023]
Further, in order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention is a production volume calculation device that performs a demand prediction of a product and calculates a production volume of the product according to the demand prediction, and acquires market information about the product after the release. Market information acquisition means, similar product information storage means for storing sales performance information and supply / demand performance information of similar products or similar product groups similar to the product, and similar products or similar product groups from the similar product information storage means Demand forecasting means for forecasting the demand of the product according to market information after the product is released, sales performance information of the similar product or similar product group, and a demand forecast result of the product, Supply / demand adjustment information creating means for creating supply / demand adjustment information according to the supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group, and production for calculating the production amount of the product according to the supply / demand adjustment information And having a calculating means.
[0024]
Further, in order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention performs market demand prediction using the market information collecting means for collecting market information about a product from one or more dealers and the market information. A production amount calculation system having a production amount calculation means for calculating the production amount of a product in response, wherein the production amount calculation means obtains market information about the product before release from the market information collection means. Means, similar product information storage means for storing market information before sale of similar products or similar product groups similar to the product, sales performance information after sale and supply and demand performance information, and similar products information storage means Obtain market information before the sale of the product or similar product group and sales performance information after the sale, market information before the sale of the product, market information before the sale of the similar product or similar product group And a demand forecasting means for forecasting the demand of the product according to the sales performance information after the release, and obtaining the demand / supply result information of the similar product or similar product group from the similar product information storing means, and the demand forecast result of the product , Supply / demand adjustment information generating means for generating supply / demand adjustment information according to the supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group, and production amount calculation means for calculating the production amount of the product according to the supply / demand adjustment information It is characterized by that.
[0025]
Further, in order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention performs market demand prediction using the market information collecting means for collecting market information about a product from one or more dealers and the market information. A production volume calculation system having a production volume calculation means for calculating the production volume of a product in response, wherein the production volume calculation means acquires market information about a product after release from the market information collection means. Means, similar product information storage means for storing sales performance information and supply / demand performance information of similar products or similar product groups similar to the product, and sales performance information of the similar products or similar product groups from the similar product information storage means Demand forecasting means for forecasting the demand of the product according to market information after the product is released and sales performance information of the similar product or similar product group, Supply / demand adjustment information creating means for creating supply / demand adjustment information according to the forecast result, supply / demand actual information of the similar product or similar product group, and production quantity calculating means for calculating the production amount of the product according to the supply / demand adjustment information It is characterized by having.
[0026]
In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the present invention provides a computer with a market information acquisition procedure for acquiring market information related to a product before sale, market information before sale of a similar product or similar product group similar to the product, and Demand for obtaining sales performance information after the release and predicting the demand of the product according to the market information before the sale of the product, the market information before the sale of the similar product or similar product group, and the sales performance information after the sale A forecasting procedure, a demand forecast result of the product, a demand / supply adjustment information creating procedure for creating supply / demand adjustment information according to the supply / demand actual information of the similar product or similar product group, and a production amount of the product according to the supply / demand adjustment information A production amount calculation program for executing a production amount calculation procedure for calculating
[0027]
In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the present invention acquires, in a computer, a market information acquisition procedure for acquiring market information related to a product after release, and sales performance information of a similar product or similar product group similar to the product. Demand forecast procedure for forecasting the demand of the product according to market information after the product is released, sales performance information of the similar product or similar product group, demand forecast result of the product, similar product or similar product group A production amount calculation program for executing a supply and demand adjustment information creation procedure for creating supply and demand adjustment information according to the supply and demand actual result information and a production amount calculation procedure for calculating the production amount of the product according to the supply and demand adjustment information It is characterized by being.
[0028]
In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the present invention provides a computer with a market information acquisition procedure for acquiring market information related to a product before sale, market information before sale of a similar product or similar product group similar to the product, and Demand for obtaining sales performance information after the release and predicting the demand of the product according to the market information before the sale of the product, the market information before the sale of the similar product or similar product group, and the sales performance information after the sale A forecasting procedure, a demand forecast result of the product, a demand / supply adjustment information creating procedure for creating supply / demand adjustment information according to the supply / demand actual information of the similar product or similar product group, and a production amount of the product according to the supply / demand adjustment information A computer-readable recording medium that records a production amount calculation program for executing a production amount calculation procedure for calculating the production amount.
[0029]
In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the present invention acquires, in a computer, a market information acquisition procedure for acquiring market information related to a product after release, and sales performance information of a similar product or similar product group similar to the product. Demand forecast procedure for forecasting the demand of the product according to market information after the product is released, sales performance information of the similar product or similar product group, demand forecast result of the product, similar product or similar product group A production amount calculation program for executing a supply / demand adjustment information creation procedure for creating supply / demand adjustment information according to the supply / demand actual performance information and a production amount calculation procedure for calculating the production amount of the product according to the supply / demand adjustment information It is a recorded computer-readable recording medium.
[0030]
The computer-readable recording medium on which the production amount calculation program is recorded is a recording medium for recording information optically, electrically or magnetically such as a CD-ROM, a flexible disk, a magneto-optical disk (MO), etc. Various types such as a semiconductor memory that electrically records information, such as a ROM and a flash memory, can be used.
[0031]
According to the present invention, it is possible to easily and accurately predict the demand for a product before the product is released or after the product is released, and it is possible to easily and accurately calculate the production amount of the product according to the demand prediction. .
[0032]
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
Next, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
[0033]
FIG. 1 shows a configuration diagram of an embodiment of a production amount calculation system according to the present invention. The production amount calculation system 1 includes a production amount calculation device 100, a data input server 200 such as POS (Point Of Sales), data input terminals 201a to 201n, a head office terminal 300, a factory terminal 400, And a network 202, 500 such as an intranet.
[0034]
The data input terminals 201a to 201n are installed in one or more dealers, a manufacturer's research department, a research company entrusted by the manufacturer, or a branch office of the manufacturer. Market information (eg, product reservation information, product evaluation information, etc.) or market information (eg, product sales information, store inventory information, etc.) Collect according to employee operations.
[0035]
The data input terminals 201a to 201n connect to the data input server 200 via the network 202 as necessary, and transmit the collected market information to the data input server 200 sequentially or at predetermined time intervals. The product evaluation information is not limited to being collected at the data input terminals 201a to 201n, but may be collected on a paper basis.
[0036]
The data input terminals 201a to 201n are not installed in all stores, but are installed in a part (for example, 2 to 3%) of all stores. In the present embodiment, among the stores in which the data input terminals 201a to 201n are installed, a store that collects market information used for product demand prediction is referred to as a sample store. Of the stores where the data input terminals 201a to 201n are installed, a store that collects market information used for expansion estimation is referred to as a panel store. The store where the data input terminals 201a to 201n are installed may also serve as a sample store and a panel store.
[0037]
The data input server 200 collects and manages market information received from the P0S terminals 201a to 201n. The data input server 200 is connected to the production amount calculation apparatus 100 via the network 500, and transmits market information being tabulated and managed to the production amount calculation apparatus 100. The data input server 200, the data input terminals 201a to 201n, and the network 202 constitute a data input system.
[0038]
The head office terminal 300 is installed at the head office of the manufacturer. The head office terminal 300 is connected to the production amount calculation apparatus 100 via the network 500, and transmits manufacturer shipment information, manufacturer inventory information, and the like to the production amount calculation apparatus 100. In addition, the head office terminal 300 acquires business-related information (for example, market information, production plan information, etc.) from the production amount calculation device 100 according to an instruction from the user, and causes the user to browse the information.
[0039]
The factory terminal 400 is installed in one or more factories, and is connected to the production amount calculation apparatus 100 via the network 500. The factory terminal 400 obtains information related to the business (for example, market information, production plan information, production amount, etc.) from the production amount calculation device 100 in accordance with an instruction from the user, and allows the user to browse the information.
[0040]
The production amount calculation apparatus 100 is connected to a data input server 200, a head office terminal 300, and a factory terminal 400 via a network 500. The production amount calculation apparatus 100 uses the market information received from the data input server 200, the manufacturer shipment information received from the head office terminal 300, the manufacturer inventory information, etc., to predict the demand for the product before or after the release, and the demand. By calculating the production amount of the product according to the prediction, it is possible to accurately and easily create or modify the production plan.
[0041]
The production amount calculation apparatus 100 manages market information received from the data input server 200, manufacturer shipment information, manufacturer inventory information, demand forecast information, production plan information, etc. received from the head office terminal 300 as information related to the business. Information related to the business is provided in response to a request from the terminal 300 for the head office or the terminal 400 for the factory. The production amount calculation apparatus 100 performs processing for sharing information related to work between the head office terminal 300 and the factory terminal 400.
[0042]
Hereinafter, the details of the production amount calculation apparatus 100 of the present invention will be further described. FIG. 2 shows a hardware configuration diagram of an embodiment of the production amount calculation apparatus of the present invention.
[0043]
The production amount calculation device 100 includes an input device 11, a display device 12, a drive device 13, a recording medium 14, an auxiliary storage device 15, a memory device 16, and an arithmetic process that are mutually connected by a bus B. A device 17, an interface device 18, and a database (hereinafter referred to as DB) 19 are configured.
[0044]
The input device 11 includes a keyboard and a mouse, and is used to input various operation instructions. The display device 12 displays various windows and data necessary for operation. The interface device 18 is an interface for connecting to the network 500, and includes, for example, a LAN adapter, a modem, and the like.
[0045]
The DB 19 manages various information (for example, market information, demand forecast information, production plan information, etc.) necessary for the processing of the production amount calculation method of the present invention. In addition, you may provide a DB server separately and may manage the information stored in DB19.
[0046]
The production amount calculation program of the present invention is provided by a recording medium 14 such as a CD-ROM. The recording medium 14 on which the production amount calculation program is recorded is set in the drive device 13, and the production amount calculation program is installed from the recording medium 14 to the auxiliary storage device 15 via the drive device 13.
[0047]
The auxiliary storage device 15 stores the installed production amount calculation program and stores files, data, and the like necessary for the processing of the production amount calculation program. The memory device 16 reads and stores the production amount calculation program from the auxiliary storage device 15 at the time of activation. The arithmetic processing unit 17 executes processing in accordance with the production amount calculation program stored in the memory device 16.
[0048]
FIG. 3 shows a functional configuration diagram of an embodiment of the production amount calculation apparatus of the present invention. The production amount calculation apparatus 100 includes a demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 for a pre-release product, a demand prediction unit 120 for a pre-release product, a demand prediction unit 130 for a post-release product, and a demand prediction parameter setting unit 140 for a post-release product. , A supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150, a supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160, a production plan alternative creation unit 170, and a supply and demand adjustment information sharing unit 180.
[0049]
The pre-release product demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 uses pre-release or post-release market information of a previously released product (hereinafter referred to as a reference product) to formulate parameters necessary for the demand prediction of the pre-release product. Support business. The demand prediction unit 120 of the pre-release product uses the market information regarding the pre-release product and the parameters set by the demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 of the pre-release product to predict the demand of the pre-release product (for example, the pre-release product Forecast monthly sales).
[0050]
The after-sale product demand prediction unit 130 uses the market information about the after-sale product and the parameters set by the after-sale product demand prediction parameter setting unit 140 to predict the demand for the after-sale product (for example, the after-sale product Forecast monthly sales). The post-sale product demand prediction parameter setting unit 140 uses the market information before or after the sale of the reference product to support the formulation of parameters necessary for the demand forecast of the post-sale product.
[0051]
The supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150 uses the market information before or after the release of the reference product and the demand prediction result performed by the demand prediction unit 120 for the product before sale or the demand forecast unit 130 for the product after sale. Store sales forecast value, store inventory forecast value, manufacturer shipment forecast value, etc. for a predetermined period (for example, 3 months) of the previous product or the product after sale are calculated.
[0052]
The supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150 calculates a manufacturer inventory appropriate value of a pre-release product or a post-release product based on the calculated store sales forecast value, store inventory forecast value, manufacturer shipment forecast value, and the like.
[0053]
The supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160 uses the store sales actual value, the store inventory actual value, the manufacturer inventory actual value, and the manufacturer shipment actual value of the reference product, and the store sales predicted value of the pre-release product or the post-release product for a predetermined period, Supports calculation of parameters required for calculating store inventory forecast values, manufacturer inventory forecast values, and manufacturer shipment forecast values.
[0054]
The production plan alternative creation unit 170 replaces the production plan that can eliminate the inventory gap based on the difference between the manufacturer inventory appropriate value calculated by the supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150 and the manufacturer inventory forecast value (hereinafter referred to as the inventory gap). Create a draft.
[0055]
The supply and demand adjustment information sharing unit 180 supplies supply and demand adjustment information such as the store sales forecast value, the store inventory forecast value, the manufacturer shipment forecast value, the manufacturer inventory appropriate value, and the manufacturer inventory forecast value calculated by the supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150, and the production The alternative plan of the production plan created by the plan alternative creation unit 170 is shared on the network 500. Related departments such as manufacturers and factories having terminals that can be connected to the network 500 can easily browse supply and demand adjustment information shared by the supply and demand adjustment information sharing unit 180, alternatives to production plans, and the like.
[0056]
Furthermore, the processing of each functional block constituting the production amount calculation apparatus 100 will be described in detail. FIG. 4 is a functional configuration diagram of an embodiment of a demand prediction parameter setting unit for a pre-release product and a demand prediction unit for a pre-release product.
[0057]
The pre-release product demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 uses the market information before or after the sale of the reference product selected by the user to set parameters necessary for the demand prediction of the pre-release product. For example, the reference product selected by the user is a similar product or a similar product group (for example, a brand) of the pre-release product. The pre-release product demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 supports the selection of the reference product by allowing the user to check the evaluation information, reservation performance information, and store sales performance value of the reference product.
[0058]
The pre-release product demand prediction unit 120 is configured to include an over-the-counter sales forecast value calculation unit 121 based on evaluation information, an over-the-counter sales prediction value calculation unit 122 based on reservation performance information, and a weighted average processing unit 123. .
[0059]
The store sales forecast value calculation unit 121 based on the evaluation information receives, for example, evaluation information of a pre-release product from the data input server 200. Note that the evaluation information of the pre-release product may be collected on a paper basis. Evaluation information on pre-release products is collected using a questionnaire or the like at, for example, a dealer, a manufacturer's survey department, a survey company commissioned by the manufacturer, or a branch office of the manufacturer. Further, the store sales forecast value calculation unit 121 based on the evaluation information receives parameters necessary for the demand prediction of the pre-release product from the demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 of the pre-release product.
[0060]
The over-the-counter sales forecast value calculation unit 121 based on the evaluation information performs different demand prediction processes for the improved product that enhances the content of the existing product and for other cases.
[0061]
In the case of an improved product, the store sales forecast value calculation unit 121 based on the evaluation information calculates the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information using the following formulas (1) to (4).
[0062]
K1 = A ÷ B (1)
K2 = (Evaluation points of pre-release product) ÷ C (2)
K3 = D (constant) (3)
X = E × K1 × K2 × K3 (4)
In the formulas (1) to (4), the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information is X, the first month store sales performance value of the reference product is A, the store sales performance value for the first year after the reference product is improved is B, The evaluation point corresponding to the evaluation information of the reference product is C, the spot PR coefficient is D, and the store sales performance value of the existing product to be improved this time is E. A, B, C, and D are received from the demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 of the pre-release product as parameters necessary for the demand prediction of the pre-release product.
[0063]
In the case other than the improved product, the store sales forecast value calculation unit 121 based on the evaluation information calculates the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information using the following formula (5).
[0064]
X = T + S x (Evaluation points for pre-release products) (5)
In Formula (5), the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information is X, the regression intercept based on the evaluation point according to the evaluation information of the reference product and the store sales performance value of the reference product is T, and the evaluation information of the reference product is The regression coefficient based on the corresponding evaluation point and the store sales performance value of the reference product is S. T and S are received from the demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 of the pre-release product as parameters necessary for the demand prediction of the pre-release product. Moreover, the evaluation point of the product before sale is an evaluation point according to the evaluation information of the product before sale.
[0065]
The store sales forecast value calculation unit 122 based on the reservation record information receives, for example, reservation record information of a pre-release product from the data input server 200. Moreover, the store sales forecast value calculation part 122 based on reservation performance information receives the parameter required for the demand forecast of the product before sale from the demand forecast parameter setting part 110 of the product before sale. And the store sales forecast value calculation part 122 based on reservation performance information calculates the store sales prediction value based on reservation performance information using the following formula | equation (6), (7).
[0066]
K4 = A ÷ G (6)
Y = (Average value of reservations per store within a predetermined period (for example, up to 20 days before release) of pre-release products) × K4 (7)
In equations (6) and (7), the store sales forecast value based on the reservation record information is Y, and the average reservation record value for one store within a predetermined period (for example, up to 20 days before release) of the reference product is G. A and G are received from the demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 of the pre-release product as parameters necessary for the demand prediction of the pre-release product.
[0067]
The weighted average processing unit 123 receives the store sales forecast value X based on the evaluation information and the store sales forecast value Y based on the reservation record information, and stores the store sales forecast value X based on the evaluation information and the store sales based on the reservation record information. The predicted value Y is subjected to a weighted average using the following equation (8) to predict the demand for the product before sale. Specifically, the weighted average processing unit 123 uses the formula (8) to calculate the store sales forecast value of the product before sale.
[0068]
Z = α × X + β × Y (α + β = 1) (8)
In Formula (8), the store sales forecast value of the pre-release product is Z. Also, the weighted average processing unit 123 receives α and β from the demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 of the product before sale as parameters necessary for the demand prediction of the product before sale. The weighted average processing unit 123 transmits the store sales forecast value Z predicted by demand using the equation (8) to the supply and demand adjustment information creating unit 150.
[0069]
In this way, by using the demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 for the pre-release product and the demand prediction unit 120 for the pre-release product, it is possible to easily and accurately estimate the overall sales forecast value for a predetermined period from the evaluation information and reservation result information of the pre-release product. Can be calculated.
[0070]
FIG. 5 shows a block diagram of an embodiment of a demand prediction unit for a product after sale and a demand prediction parameter setting unit for a product after sale.
[0071]
The post-release product demand prediction parameter setting unit 140 sets parameters necessary for the demand prediction of the post-release product using the post-release market information of the reference product selected by the user. For example, the reference product selected by the user is a similar product or a similar product group of the product after sale. The post-release product demand prediction parameter setting unit 140 selects the reference product by allowing the user to confirm the enlargement factor and the expansion factor after 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, etc. according to the store sales performance value of the reference product. To help.
[0072]
The post-release product demand prediction unit 130 is configured to include a demand prediction processing unit 131 and an expansion estimation processing unit 132. The demand prediction processing unit 131 receives, for example, the store sales performance value of the product after sale from the data input server 200. Further, the demand prediction processing unit 131 receives parameters necessary for the demand prediction processing from the demand prediction parameter setting unit 140 of the product after sale. Note that the over-the-counter sales performance value of the product after release is the over-the-counter sales performance value for several days at all sample stores.
[0073]
Therefore, the demand prediction processing unit 131 receives the expansion factor of the reference product as a parameter necessary for the demand prediction process, and stores sales for a predetermined period (for example, one month) in all the sample stores from the store sales performance values of the products after sale. Calculate the predicted value. The demand prediction processing unit 131 transmits the calculated store sales prediction value for a predetermined period in all sample stores to the enlarged estimation processing unit 132.
[0074]
The expansion estimation processing unit 132 receives store sales prediction values for a predetermined period in all sample stores from the demand prediction processing unit 131 and receives parameters necessary for the expansion estimation processing from the demand prediction parameter setting unit 140 of the product after sale. .
[0075]
Therefore, the enlargement estimation processing unit 132 receives the enlargement factor of the reference product as a parameter necessary for the enlargement estimation processing, and determines all sales stores (sales other than the sample stores and panel stores from the store sales performance values for a predetermined period in all the sample stores. Expansion estimate to the total sales forecast value for a predetermined period in the store. The expansion estimation processing unit 132 transmits the overall estimated sales value estimated to be expanded to the supply and demand adjustment information generation unit 150.
[0076]
In this way, by using the after-sales product demand prediction unit 130 and the after-sales product demand prediction parameter setting unit 140, it is possible to easily calculate the overall sales forecast value for a predetermined period from the over-the-counter actual sales value for several days after the sale. Can be calculated accurately.
[0077]
Note that the demand prediction unit 120 for pre-release products and the demand prediction unit 130 for post-release products receive, for example, market information about pre-release products, post-release products, or reference products from the data input server 200 sequentially or at predetermined time intervals. Update the total sales forecast value. In addition, the demand prediction parameter setting unit 110 of the pre-release product and the demand prediction parameter setting unit 140 of the post-release product correspond to the market information regarding the pre-release product, the post-release product, or the reference product transmitted from the data input server 200 The parameters necessary for the demand prediction of the pre-release product or the post-release product are updated sequentially or every predetermined time.
[0078]
FIG. 6 shows a configuration diagram of an embodiment of the supply and demand adjustment information creation unit and the supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit. The supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160 uses the store sales actual value, store inventory actual value, manufacturer inventory actual value, and manufacturer shipment actual value of the reference product selected by the user for a predetermined period of the pre-release product or the post-release product. Parameters necessary for store sales forecast processing, store stock forecast processing, manufacturer shipment forecast processing, and manufacturer stock forecast processing are set. For example, the reference product selected by the user is a similar product or a similar product group of a pre-release product or a post-release product.
[0079]
The supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160 provides the user with a search function for searching the DB 19 for products or product groups similar to the pre-release product or the post-release product using search keys such as product characteristics and product categories.
[0080]
FIG. 7 shows an image diagram of an example of the reference product selection screen. In the reference product selection screen of FIG. 7, the series, beauty method classification A, beauty method classification B, release date, product code, and product name can be used as search keys.
[0081]
When a product or a product group corresponding to the search key is searched, the supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160 displays information such as the ratio of the searched product or product group to store sales results, store inventory results, and manufacturer shipment results to store sales results. (Hereinafter referred to as a data set) is displayed at a predetermined location on the reference product selection screen. The user can select a reference product from a product or a product group with reference to a data set displayed at a predetermined location on the reference product selection screen.
[0082]
The supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160 uses the store sales actual value, store inventory actual value, manufacturer inventory actual value, and manufacturer shipment actual value of the selected reference product to store the pre-release product or the post-release product for a predetermined period. Parameters necessary for the prediction process, the store inventory prediction process, the manufacturer shipment prediction process, and the manufacturer inventory prediction process are set, and the parameters are transmitted to the supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150.
[0083]
The supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150 includes an over-the-counter sales prediction processing unit 151, an over-the-counter stock prediction processing unit 152, a manufacturer shipment prediction processing unit 153, a manufacturer stock appropriate value calculation unit 154, and a manufacturer stock prediction processing unit 155. Configured as follows.
[0084]
The store sales forecast processing unit 151 receives the overall sales forecast value for a predetermined period from the demand forecast unit 120 for the product before sale or the demand forecast unit 130 for the product after sale. Further, the store sales forecast processing unit 151 receives the store sales result value of the reference product as a parameter necessary for the store sales prediction process from the supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160. The store sales forecast processing unit 151 performs store sales forecast using the store sales performance value transition of the reference product and the overall sales forecast value for a predetermined period.
[0085]
For example, when the store sales result value of the reference product has a monthly store sales transition pattern as shown in FIG. 8A, the store sales forecast processing unit 151 predicts the store sales forecast per month as shown in FIG. Calculate the value.
[0086]
The store sales trend pattern in FIG. 8A represents store sales from the following month when the store sales in the first month of the reference product is 100%. Moreover, the store sales forecast value of FIG. 9 (A) represents the store sales forecast value after the next month when the total sales forecast value of the first month is 200,000.
[0087]
The store inventory prediction processing unit 152 receives the store inventory actual value of the reference product as a parameter necessary for the store inventory prediction process from the supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160. The store inventory prediction processing unit 152 performs store inventory prediction using the transition of the store inventory actual value of the reference product.
[0088]
For example, when the store inventory actual value of the reference product is the monthly store inventory transition as shown in FIG. 8B, the store inventory prediction processing unit 152 performs the store inventory prediction value per month as shown in FIG. Is calculated.
[0089]
The manufacturer shipment prediction processing unit 153 receives a predicted value for a predetermined period from the store sales prediction processing unit 151 and the store inventory prediction processing unit 152. In addition, the manufacturer shipment prediction processing unit 153 receives the store sales actual value and the manufacturer shipment actual value of the reference product for a predetermined period as parameters necessary for the manufacturer shipment prediction process from the supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160. The manufacturer shipment forecast processing unit 153 sets the manufacturer shipment forecast value for the entire predetermined period as a total value obtained by adding the store sales forecast value after the predetermined period to the store sales forecast value for the entire predetermined period. As for the predicted value, the manufacturer shipment prediction is performed using the ratio of the reference product shipment to the store sales.
[0090]
For example, when the manufacturer shipment result value of the reference product is a ratio of the monthly manufacturer shipment to the over-the-counter sales performance as shown in FIG. 8C, the manufacturer shipment prediction processing unit 153 performs the monthly shipment as shown in FIG. Calculate the expected shipment value of the manufacturer.
[0091]
The manufacturer stock appropriate value calculation unit 154 receives the manufacturer shipment predicted value from the manufacturer shipment prediction processing unit 153. The manufacturer stock appropriate value calculation unit 154 receives parameters necessary for calculating the manufacturer stock appropriate value from the supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160. The manufacturer inventory appropriate value calculation unit 154 calculates the manufacturer inventory appropriate value using the manufacturer shipment predicted value and the parameters necessary for calculating the manufacturer inventory appropriate value.
[0092]
The manufacturer inventory prediction processing unit 155 receives the overall sales prediction value for a predetermined period from the storefront sales prediction processing unit 151. Further, the manufacturer inventory prediction processing unit 155 receives the production plan value as a parameter necessary for the manufacturer inventory prediction processing from the supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160. The manufacturer inventory prediction processing unit 155 performs manufacturer inventory prediction using the production plan value and the manufacturer shipment prediction value.
[0093]
Thus, by using the supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150 and the supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160, the store sales forecast value, store inventory forecast value, manufacturer shipment forecast value, manufacturer inventory appropriate value, and manufacturer inventory forecast value can be easily and accurately determined. Can be calculated.
[0094]
In addition, the user can instruct | indicate with respect to the supply-and-demand adjustment information preparation part 150 using a simulation screen like FIG. This is to allow the user to appropriately modify the parameters received from the supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit 160.
[0095]
FIG. 10 shows a configuration diagram of an example of a supply and demand adjustment screen. When the store sales transition pattern is received as a parameter from the demand / supply adjustment parameter setting unit 160, the demand / supply adjustment information creation unit 150 displays the received store sales transition pattern in the field 603 of the demand / supply adjustment screen.
[0096]
For example, when the total sales forecast value for a predetermined period is received from the demand forecasting unit 120 for the product before sale or the demand forecasting unit 130 for the product after sale, the store sales forecast processing unit 151 displays the total sales forecast value (for example, 750,000) in the column 601. , And store sales forecast values for the next month, the next month, and the third month (for example, 150,000 items for the next month, 98000 items for the next month, 998000 items for the third month) in accordance with the store sales transition pattern displayed in the column 603. Calculate and display in column 602.
[0097]
The supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150 displays, in the column 604, the store inventory results of the reference product after 3 months as store inventory after 3 months. The supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150 predicts the manufacturer shipment after three months as a total value obtained by adding the store sales forecast value after three months to the store sales forecast value for three months. The supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150 calculates the ratio of the reference product shipment of the reference product in the first month, the next month, and the next month to the store sales performance and displays it in the column 605.
[0098]
After the release, the manufacturer's shipment forecast value for the first month is recalculated from the manufacturer shipment forecast value based on the shipment pattern based on the manufacturer shipment record value and the reference item's shipment record. When the balance is lost in light of the ratio of the reference product shipment to the store sales, the store shipment forecast pattern can be adjusted by appropriately adjusting the store sales trend pattern and the store inventory forecast value after 3 months.
[0099]
Therefore, by using the supply and demand adjustment screen shown in FIG. 10, the user can appropriately modify the parameters necessary for creating the supply and demand adjustment information, and the store sales forecast value, store inventory forecast value, and manufacturer shipment forecast value can be easily obtained. It can be calculated accurately.
[0100]
The production plan alternative creation unit 170 in FIG. 3 receives the manufacturer inventory appropriate value and the manufacturer inventory prediction value from the supply and demand adjustment information creation unit 150, calculates the inventory gap, and sets the necessary production amount to eliminate the inventory gap. Create an alternative production plan according to your needs. The production plan alternative creation unit 170 can also make a user confirm the created production plan alternative by graphing. The replacement of the production plan alternative with the actual production plan is preferably performed in accordance with a predetermined rule (for example, the 1st, 15th of every month).
[0101]
The supply-demand adjustment information sharing unit 180 in FIG. 3 supplies supply-demand adjustment information such as store sales forecast values, store inventory forecast values, manufacturer shipment forecast values, manufacturer inventory appropriate values, manufacturer inventory forecast values calculated by the demand-supply adjustment information creation unit 150. The production plan alternative creation unit 170 receives the production plan alternative, etc., and stores the received supply-demand adjustment information, production plan alternative, etc. in the DB 19.
[0102]
Then, the supply and demand adjustment information sharing unit 180 performs processing for sharing supply and demand adjustment information, production plan alternatives, and the like stored in the DB 19 among related departments such as manufacturers and factories having terminals that can be connected to the network 500. .
[0103]
For example, the supply-demand adjustment information sharing unit 180 graphs supply-demand adjustment information, production plan alternatives, and the like stored in the DB 19 as shown in FIGS. 11 to 14 and relates to manufacturers, factories, etc. having terminals that can be connected to the network 500. Supply to the department.
[0104]
FIG. 11 shows an image diagram of an example of the store sales information display screen. FIG. 12 shows an image diagram of an example of the manufacturer shipment information display screen. FIG. 13 shows an image diagram of an example of the manufacturer stock information display screen. FIG. 14 shows an example of a production information display screen. In addition, the image diagrams of FIGS. 11 to 14 are examples, and the present invention is not limited to these.
[0105]
Therefore, the user can easily view graphed supply and demand adjustment information, production plan alternatives, etc., so that decision making concerning supply and demand adjustment can be speeded up, business know-how can be shared, and business education efficiency can be improved. Can be achieved.
[0106]
【The invention's effect】
As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to easily and accurately predict the demand of a product before or after the product is released, and easily and accurately calculate the production amount of the product according to the demand prediction. Is possible.
[0107]
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of an embodiment of a production amount calculation system according to the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of an embodiment of a production amount calculation apparatus according to the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a functional configuration diagram of an embodiment of a production amount calculation apparatus according to the present invention.
FIG. 4 is a functional configuration diagram of an embodiment of a demand prediction parameter setting unit for a pre-release product and a demand prediction unit for a pre-release product.
FIG. 5 is a configuration diagram of an embodiment of a demand prediction unit for a product after sale and a demand prediction parameter setting unit for a product after sale.
FIG. 6 is a configuration diagram of an embodiment of a supply and demand adjustment information creation unit and a supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit.
FIG. 7 is an image diagram of an example of a reference product selection screen.
FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of parameters set by a supply and demand adjustment parameter setting unit.
FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of a predicted value calculated according to a parameter.
FIG. 10 is a configuration diagram of an example of a supply and demand adjustment screen.
FIG. 11 is an image diagram of an example of a store sales information display screen.
FIG. 12 is an image diagram of an example of a manufacturer shipment information display screen.
FIG. 13 is an image diagram of an example of a manufacturer stock information display screen.
FIG. 14 is an image diagram of an example of a production information display screen.
[Explanation of symbols]
1 Production volume calculation system
11 Input device
12 Display device
13 Drive device
14 Recording media
15 Auxiliary storage
16 Memory device
17 Arithmetic processing unit
18 Interface device
19 Database (DB)
100 Production volume calculation device
110 Predictive product demand parameter setting part
120 Pre-release product demand forecast department
130 Demand forecasting department for products after release
140 Demand forecast parameter setting part of post-release product
150 Supply and demand adjustment information creation department
160 Supply and demand adjustment parameter setting section
170 Production Planning Alternative Planning Department
180 Supply and demand adjustment information sharing department
200 Data input server
201a to 201n Data input terminal
300 Head office terminal
400 Factory terminal
202,500 networks
B bus

Claims

A computer including a storage device and an arithmetic processing unit performs a demand forecast for a product, and calculates a production amount of the product according to the demand forecast,
The storage device includes market information related to a pre-release product including evaluation information and reservation performance information of the product, pre-release market information of a similar product or similar product group similar to the product, and sales performance information after the release. Stores later sales performance information, supply and demand performance information of the similar products or similar products,
And market information acquisition step of the processing unit obtains the market information before the release of the product from the storage device,
Wherein the processing unit acquires the previous Symbol such similar product or sales information after the pre-launch of market information and the launch of similar products group from the storage device, the pre-release market information products, the similar products or similar products A demand forecasting stage for forecasting the demand of the product according to market information before sale of the group and sales result information after sale;
The arithmetic processing unit acquires supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group from the storage device, and generates supply / demand adjustment information according to the demand prediction result of the product and the supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group The supply and demand adjustment information creation stage,
The processing unit is closed and a production calculation step to calculate the production of the products according to the demand and supply adjustment information,
In the demand prediction step, the arithmetic processing unit stores evaluation information and reservation performance information before the sale of the similar product or similar product group and sales performance information after the sales of the similar product or similar product group from the storage device. The stage of acquiring,
The arithmetic processing unit is based on the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information of the product and the reservation record information according to the relationship between the evaluation information and reservation record information of the similar product or similar product group and the sales record information Calculate the store sales forecast value, calculate the store sales forecast value of the product by calculating a weighted average of the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information of the product and the store sales forecast value based on the reservation performance information, and demand for the product The stage of making predictions and
Production calculation method characterized by have a.

2. The production amount calculation method according to claim 1, wherein the supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group includes sales performance information, inventory performance information, and shipping performance information of the similar product or similar product group.

In the supply / demand adjustment information creation stage, the arithmetic processing unit determines from the sales forecast value of the product included in the demand forecast result according to the sales performance information, inventory performance information and shipping performance information of the similar product or similar product group. 3. The production amount calculation method according to claim 2, wherein the sales forecast information, inventory forecast information, and shipment forecast information of the product are created as the supply and demand adjustment information.

In the supply / demand adjustment information creation stage, the arithmetic processing unit acquires sales result information, inventory result information, and shipment result information of the similar product or similar product group selected by the user from the storage device and presents the same to the user. Stages,
The arithmetic processing unit correcting sales results information, inventory results information and shipping results information of the similar products or similar products group according to instructions from the user;
In accordance with the sales performance information, inventory performance information, and shipping performance information of the similar product or similar product group, the arithmetic processing unit calculates the sales forecast information, inventory of the product from the sales forecast value of the product included in the demand forecast result. Creating forecast information and shipping forecast information as the supply and demand adjustment information;
The production amount calculation method according to claim 1, wherein:

2. The production amount according to claim 1, wherein in the demand prediction stage, the arithmetic processing unit performs different demand predictions when the product is an improved product of the existing product and when the product is not an improved product of the existing product. Calculation method.

A computer that includes a storage device and an arithmetic processing unit, predicts a demand for a product, and calculates a production amount of the product according to the demand prediction,
  The storage device includes market information related to a pre-release product including evaluation information and reservation performance information of the product, pre-release market information of a similar product or similar product group similar to the product, and sales performance information after the release. Stores later sales performance information, supply and demand performance information of the similar products or similar products,
  The arithmetic processing unit is
  Market information acquisition means for acquiring market information before the release of the product from the storage device;
  The market information before the sale of the similar product or the similar product group and the sales performance information after the sale are acquired from the storage device, the market information before the sale of the product, the market information before the sale of the similar product or the similar product group. And a demand forecasting means for forecasting the demand of the product according to the sales performance information after the release,
  Supply / demand adjustment information creation that obtains supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group from the storage device, and creates supply / demand adjustment information according to the demand prediction result of the product and the supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group Means,
  It functions as a production amount calculation means for calculating the production amount of the product according to the supply and demand adjustment information,
  The demand prediction unit is configured so that the arithmetic processing unit stores evaluation information and reservation record information before the sale of the similar product or similar product group and sales record information after the sale of the similar product or similar product group from the storage device. Means to obtain,
  The arithmetic processing unit is based on the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information of the product and the reservation record information according to the relationship between the evaluation information and reservation record information of the similar product or similar product group and the sales record information Calculate the store sales forecast value, calculate the store sales forecast value of the product by calculating a weighted average of the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information of the product and the store sales forecast value based on the reservation performance information, and demand for the product A means to make predictions
Production volume calculation device characterized by functioning as

Market information collecting means for collecting market information about products from one or more dealers, and production amount calculating means for performing product demand prediction using the market information, and calculating the production amount of products according to the demand prediction A production amount calculation system comprising a computer configured to include a storage device and an arithmetic processing unit,
  The storage device includes market information related to a pre-release product including evaluation information and reservation performance information of the product, pre-release market information of a similar product or similar product group similar to the product, and sales performance information after the release. Stores later sales performance information, supply and demand performance information of the similar products or similar products,
  The arithmetic processing unit is
  Market information acquisition means for acquiring market information before the release of the product from the storage device;
  The market information before the sale of the similar product or the similar product group and the sales performance information after the sale are acquired from the storage device, the market information before the sale of the product, the market information before the sale of the similar product or the similar product group. And a demand forecasting means for forecasting the demand of the product according to the sales performance information after the release,
  Supply / demand adjustment information creation that obtains supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group from the storage device, and creates supply / demand adjustment information according to the demand prediction result of the product and the supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group Means,
  It functions as a production amount calculation means for calculating the production amount of the product according to the supply and demand adjustment information,
  The demand prediction unit is configured so that the arithmetic processing unit stores evaluation information and reservation record information before the sale of the similar product or similar product group and sales record information after the sale of the similar product or similar product group from the storage device. Means to obtain,
  The arithmetic processing unit is based on the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information of the product and the reservation record information according to the relationship between the evaluation information and reservation record information of the similar product or similar product group and the sales record information Calculate the store sales forecast value, calculate the store sales forecast value of the product by calculating a weighted average of the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information of the product and the store sales forecast value based on the reservation performance information, and demand for the product A means to make predictions
Production volume calculation system characterized by functioning as

A production amount calculation program for performing a demand prediction of a product executed in a computer including a storage device and an arithmetic processing unit, and calculating a production amount of the product according to the demand prediction,
  The storage device includes market information related to a pre-release product including evaluation information and reservation performance information of the product, pre-release market information of a similar product or similar product group similar to the product, and sales performance information after the release. Stores later sales performance information, supply and demand performance information of the similar products or similar products,
  A market information acquisition procedure for acquiring, from the storage device, market information before the product is released to the arithmetic processing unit;
  The market information before the sale of the similar product or the similar product group and the sales performance information after the sale are acquired from the storage device, the market information before the sale of the product, the market information before the sale of the similar product or the similar product group. And a demand forecast procedure for forecasting the demand of the product according to the sales performance information after the release,
  Supply / demand adjustment information creation that obtains supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group from the storage device, and creates supply / demand adjustment information according to the demand prediction result of the product and the supply / demand performance information of the similar product or similar product group Procedure and
  A production amount calculation procedure for calculating the production amount of the product according to the supply and demand adjustment information;
  In the demand prediction stage, the storage device stores evaluation information and reservation record information before the sale of the similar product or similar product group and sales record information after the sale of the similar product or similar product group in the arithmetic processing unit. The steps to get from
  According to the relationship between the evaluation information and reservation performance information of the similar product or similar product group and the sales performance information, the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information of the product and the store sales forecast value based on the reservation performance information Calculating the store sales forecast value of the product by calculating a weighted average of the store sales forecast value based on the evaluation information of the product and the store sales forecast value based on the reservation performance information, and performing a demand forecast of the product;
Production volume calculation program to execute

A computer-readable recording medium on which the production amount calculation program according to claim 8 is recorded.