JP4312076B2 - Electric charge calculation system and method for instantaneous voltage drop - Google Patents

Description

  TECHNICAL FIELD The present invention relates to a system and method for calculating an electric charge for an instantaneous voltage drop, and in particular, when a customer's instantaneous voltage drop occurs due to a lightning accident (short-circuit accident caused by lightning) to an overhead power transmission line. The present invention relates to a system and method for calculating an electricity charge corresponding to an instantaneous voltage drop that is used for automatic compensation.

The following non-patent document describes an example of an influence on an electronic product that occurs when an instantaneous voltage drop occurs due to a lightning strike to an overhead power transmission line.
"Instantaneous voltage drop countermeasures", Electric cooperative research, Vol.46, No.3

According to the above non-patent literature,
(1) In variable speed motors applied to power electronics, if a voltage drop of about 15% or more continues for about 0.01 seconds or more, it will be affected.
(2) In an electromagnetic switch, if a voltage drop of about 50% or more continues for about 0.01 seconds or more, an effect occurs.
(3) In a high-pressure discharge lamp, if a voltage drop of about 15% or more continues for about 0.06 seconds or more, an effect occurs.
(4) In a personal computer, if a voltage drop of about 40% or more continues for about 0.06 seconds or more, an effect will occur.
(5) With an undervoltage relay, an effect occurs when a voltage drop of about 20% or more continues for about 1 second or more.

In this way, even a momentary voltage drop affects electronic products, so it is not just a lightning strike prediction, but a lightning strike information provision system that can quantitatively calculate and provide the impact of lightning on customer facilities. Have been proposed in the following patent documents.
JP 2003-47173 A

As a guarantee fee processing method and processing device that enables the use of an uninterruptible power supply without making an initial investment and makes the utilization of the uninterruptible power supply efficient and effective by paying a fee for the warranty period Those disclosed in the following patent documents have been proposed.
JP 2001-116769 A

Furthermore, as a method for extracting a transmission line (target transmission line) that may cause a customer to cause an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning accident, a method disclosed in the following patent document has been proposed.
JP 2003-47173 A

However, when the customer is provided with a quantitative impact on the facility due to lightning as disclosed in Patent Document 1, the customer can avoid the impact on the electronic product due to the instantaneous voltage drop to some extent. However, in order to completely avoid the influence on electronic products, it is necessary to take the following measures.
(1) Install an instantaneous voltage drop protection device that is effective only for an instantaneous voltage drop.
(2) A secondary battery (for example, a NaS battery or a redox flow battery) that is effective not only for instantaneous voltage drop but also for short-time power outage and load leveling is installed.
(3) Install private generators that are effective not only for instantaneous voltage drops but also for long-term power outages and load leveling.

In this case, from the viewpoint of the customer, the installation of the instantaneous voltage drop protection device or the like is costly. Therefore, there is a measure to eliminate the initial investment by using the guarantee fee processing method as disclosed in Patent Document 2 above. Although it is conceivable, when an instantaneous voltage drop occurs, it is also considered as a preferable measure to receive a certain amount of monetary compensation from the electric power company and recover the introduction cost of the instantaneous voltage drop protection device.
In addition, as a power company, it is very difficult to reduce the lightning accident rate to zero no matter what lightning protection measures are taken, and measures against specific customers are not desirable from the viewpoint of fairness. For customers who wish to make financial compensation in the event of an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning accident on the power transmission line, provide some financial compensation, and the customer's cost to install an instantaneous voltage drop protection device, etc. It is preferable to level or reduce the burden.

  SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION An object of the present invention is to provide a system and method for calculating an electric charge for an instantaneous voltage drop that can be used to make financial compensation for a customer when an instantaneous voltage drop of the customer due to a lightning accident to an overhead power transmission line occurs. Is to provide.

The electric voltage calculation system for an instantaneous voltage drop according to the present invention is an electric charge calculation system for an instantaneous voltage drop to compensate for an instantaneous voltage drop of a customer due to a lightning accident of a target transmission line. Based on the relationship between the number of lightning strikes with a lightning current value above a certain past value in the target area and the relationship between the number of lightning accidents on the target transmission line and the lightning current value, lightning above a certain past value in the target area. The annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency relationship analyzing means (23) for analyzing the relationship between the number of lightning strikes of the current value and the number of lightning accidents of the target transmission line, and the year of the lightning current value exceeding a certain past value in the target area Based on the number of lightning strikes, it was analyzed by the annual lightning strike probability analysis means (24) for analyzing the probability of annual lightning strikes with a lightning current value above a certain value, and the annual lightning strike / lightning accident relation analysis means (23). The relationship between the number of lightning strikes of the current lightning current value above the predetermined value and the number of lightning accidents on the target transmission line, and the annual lightning strike of the lightning current value above the constant value analyzed by the annual lightning strike probability analysis means (24). An electricity rate discount amount calculation means (25) for calculating an electricity rate discount amount based on the probability of the number of times is provided.
Here, the annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency relationship analyzing means (23) performs a regression analysis on the relationship between the number of lightning strikes with a lightning current value exceeding a predetermined value in the target area and the number of lightning accidents on the target transmission line. Then, the electricity price discount amount calculation means (25) calculates the annual lightning strike in the target area based on the probability of the annual lightning strike with a lightning current value of a certain value or more analyzed by the annual lightning strike probability analysis unit (24). Only when the number of times is equal to or greater than a predetermined number, the electricity rate discount amount may be calculated by multiplying the number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer estimated from the regression analysis for the target transmission line by a predetermined economic loss amount. Good.
Further, the electricity charge discount amount calculation means (25) may calculate the electricity charge discount amount by the following equation.
Electricity discount amount = G x Y
Y = aX + b
here,
G: Economic loss per customer's instantaneous voltage drop set in advance from past performance data Y: Customer's instantaneous voltage drop estimated from regression analysis X: Lightning current value above a specified value in this year A: Regression coefficient obtained by the regression analysis b: Regression constant obtained by the regression analysis Further, the electric voltage calculation system for the instantaneous voltage drop corresponds to an electricity charge discount calculation device (20), Connected to the electricity rate discount amount calculation device (20) and connected to the transmission rate database (31) in which the data of the target transmission line is stored in association with a customer, and to the electricity rate discount amount calculation device (20) In addition, data on the number of lightning strikes by lightning current value and data on the relationship between the number of lightning accidents and lightning current values are stored in association with transmission lines every year and stored. And the electricity rate discount amount calculation device (20) extracts past lightning strikes in the target area according to lightning current values, and includes the number of past lightning accidents in the target transmission line. Lightning strikes / thunder accident frequency calculation unit (22) for calculating the relationship with the lightning current value, and lightning strikes by lightning current value in the target area determined by the lightning strike / lightning accident frequency calculation unit (22). Annual regression analysis of the relationship between the annual number of lightning strikes and the number of instantaneous voltage drops of customers based on the number of times and the relationship between the number of lightning accidents in the target transmission line and the lightning current value The lightning strike frequency / lightning accident frequency relationship analysis unit (23) analyzes the probability of the annual number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value above a certain value based on the number of lightning strikes over a certain value in the past in the target area. Annual lightning strike probability analysis unit (24) and annual lightning strike / lightning accident relationship analysis unit (23) regression analysis of annual lightning strikes over a certain past value and the number of instantaneous voltage drops of customers Electricity rate discount amount calculation unit (25) for calculating the electricity rate discount amount based on the relationship between the lightning current probability and the annual lightning strike probability analysis unit (24) And may be provided.
Furthermore, the electricity rate discount amount calculation device (20) may further include a transmission line extraction / mapping unit (21) that extracts and maps the target transmission line.
Furthermore, the electric voltage calculation system corresponding to the instantaneous voltage drop further includes an insurance fee calculation device (110) connected to the electricity fee discount amount calculation device (20) and calculating an insurance premium, and the insurance fee calculation A lightning accident frequency estimation unit (111) for estimating a customer's instantaneous voltage drop frequency in the target area based on regression analysis in the annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency relationship analysis unit (23); Based on the customer's instantaneous voltage drop frequency estimated by the lightning accident frequency estimation unit (111) and the annual lightning frequency probability of a lightning current value greater than a certain value analyzed by the annual lightning frequency probability analysis unit (24). A discount expected amount calculation unit (112) for calculating the discount expected amount of electricity charges for the number of lightning strikes, and the insurance premium based on the discount expected amount calculated by the discount expected amount calculation unit (112) Premium calculator for calculation (113) and may be provided.

The electric voltage calculation method for an instantaneous voltage drop corresponding to the present invention is an electric voltage calculation method for an instantaneous voltage drop to compensate for an instantaneous voltage drop of a customer due to a lightning accident of a target transmission line. Based on the relationship between the number of lightning strikes with a lightning current value above a certain past value in the target area and the relationship between the number of lightning accidents on the target transmission line and the lightning current value, lightning above a certain past value in the target area. A step of regressing the relationship between the number of lightning strikes and the number of lightning accidents in the current value (S12), and the lightning current value of a certain value or more based on the annual number of lightning strikes of a certain value or more in the target area in the past. Analyzing the probability of the annual number of lightning strikes (S13, 14), and the annual number of lightning strikes in the target area based on the probability of the annual number of lightning strikes of the analyzed lightning current value equal to or greater than a predetermined value. Only when it is, the step of calculating the discounted electricity rate by multiplying the number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer estimated from the regression analysis for the target transmission line by a predetermined economic loss amount (S15). It is characterized by that.
Here, a step (S21) of estimating a customer's instantaneous voltage drop number in the target transmission line based on the regression analysis, the estimated customer's instantaneous voltage drop number and a lightning current greater than or equal to the analyzed constant value. A step (S22, 23) of calculating a discount expected amount of electricity charges for the number of lightning strikes based on the probability of the number of lightning strikes per year (S22, 23), and a step of calculating the insurance premium based on the calculated discount expected amount (S24) And may be further included.

The system and method for calculating an electricity rate corresponding to an instantaneous voltage drop according to the present invention has the following effects.
(1) Number of lightning strikes per year with a lightning current value greater than a certain value in the target area subject to the electricity rate discount, exceeding a certain number of times in the target area. By calculating the electricity rate discount amount based on the result of analyzing the relationship between the voltage drop and the number of instantaneous voltage drops, the electricity rate discount amount can be calculated for each customer, thus improving the reliability of the electricity rate discount amount. be able to.
(2) For customers, it is possible to equalize or reduce the cost burden for instantaneous voltage drop by receiving financial compensation such as discounts on electricity charges, and contracts such as lightning insurance by insurance companies. Compared to the above, it is possible to take measures against instantaneous voltage drop more easily.
(3) For electric power companies, instead of taking lightning protection measures for facilities that require enormous costs to reduce the lightning accident rate to zero, when an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning accident on a transmission line occurs It is possible to reduce the cost of countermeasures against instantaneous voltage drop by performing financial compensation, such as discounting electricity charges, for customers who desire financial compensation.
(4) For electric power companies, raising the basic electricity bill of customers who want to make such financial compensation higher than other customers or issuing bonds to procure a portion of discounted funds from the financial market As a result, it is possible to secure discount resources.

More than a certain value in the target area subject to discounts on electricity charges, which can be used to provide financial compensation to customers in the event of an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning accident on an overhead power transmission line This is realized by calculating the discounted electricity bill when the number of lightning strikes exceeds a certain number of times.
Electricity discount amount = G x Y
Y = aX + b
here,
G: Economic loss per customer's instantaneous voltage drop set in advance from past performance data Y: Customer's instantaneous voltage drop estimated from regression analysis X: Lightning current value above a specified value in this year Annual number of lightning strikes in Japan a: Regression coefficient obtained by the regression analysis b: Regression constant obtained by the regression analysis

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Embodiments of an electric charge calculation system and method for instantaneous voltage drop according to the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.
As shown in FIG. 1, an electric charge discount system 10 (hereinafter, referred to as “instantaneous drop-compatible electric charge calculation system 10”) according to the first embodiment of the present invention is used. A calculation device 20, a power transmission line database 31 and an annual lightning strike / thunder accident frequency database 32 connected to the electricity rate discount amount calculation device 20, and a lightning location device 40 connected to the electricity rate discount amount calculation device 20. It has.

The electricity price discount calculation device 20 extracts a power transmission line extraction / mapping unit 21 for extracting a power transmission line (hereinafter referred to as “target power transmission line”) that may cause a customer to cause an instantaneous voltage drop due to a lightning accident. The number of lightning strikes in the past in a mesh (hereinafter referred to as “target area”) whose latitude and longitude including the target transmission line extracted by the transmission line extraction / mapping unit 21 are 15 minutes (about 25 km), for example. The number of lightning strikes / lightning accidents calculation unit 22 that extracts the lightning current values and calculates the relationship between past lightning accidents (short circuit accidents due to lightning) and the lightning current values in the target transmission line, and the number of lightning strikes / lightning accidents Based on the relationship between the number of lightning strikes for each lightning current value in the target area determined in 22 and the relationship between the number of lightning accidents in the target transmission line and the lightning current value, Annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency relationship analysis unit 23 for analyzing the relationship between the number of current lightning strikes per year and the number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer (hereinafter referred to as “instantaneous voltage drop”); An annual lightning frequency probability analysis unit 24 that analyzes the probability of annual lightning strikes with a lightning current value greater than a certain value based on the number of lightning strikes with a lightning current value greater than a certain value, and an annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency relationship analysis unit 23 The relationship between the number of annual lightning strikes of lightning current values exceeding a certain value analyzed in the past and the number of customer sags, and the probability of annual lightning strikes of lightning current values above a certain value analyzed by the annual lightning strike probability analysis unit 24 And an electricity charge discount amount calculation unit 25 for calculating an electricity charge discount amount based on the above.
The mesh refers to a certain area divided into rectangles.

The transmission line database 31 stores the transmission line data of the area where the power company is serving, and stores the data of the target transmission line extracted by the transmission line extraction / mapping unit 21 in association with the customer. Is done. For transmission lines (target transmission lines) that may cause an instantaneous voltage drop to the customer due to a lightning accident, in addition to the transmission line connecting the substation and the customer, the substation and other customers In some cases, a part of the transmission line that connects the two is included. Further, as such a method of extracting the target power transmission line, the extraction method disclosed in Patent Document 3 (Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2003-47173) can be used.
The annual number of lightning strikes / lightning accidents database 32 stores data on the number of lightning strikes by lightning current value in association with each target area every year, and data on the relationship between the number of lightning strikes and lightning current values. Are stored in association with the target transmission line of each customer for each fiscal year.

The lightning position locating device 40 detects the direction of the lightning strike and the lightning intensity from the change in electromagnetic waves during a lightning strike with a built-in antenna, and transmits the information to the master station along with the detection time and information collected by the slave station. It is equipped with a master station that calculates the lightning strike position and lightning intensity based on it, and observes lightning activity over a wide area. As such a lightning position locating device 40, for example, there is one sold by Sankosha Co., Ltd.
In addition, when the lightning strike location type electricity bill calculation system 10 receives lightning location information and lightning intensity information from the master station of the lightning location locator 40, the number of lightning strikes for each target area and Lightning current values are obtained, and data on the number of lightning strikes by lightning current value are associated with each target area and stored in the annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency database 32.

Next, the operation of the instantaneous voltage reduction type electricity bill calculation system 10 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.
When a contract for monetary compensation is made with a customer when an instantaneous voltage drop occurs in the customer, the transmission line extraction / mapping unit 21 of the electricity rate discount amount calculation device 20 stores it in the transmission line database 31. Based on the transmitted transmission line data, a transmission line (target transmission line) that may cause an instantaneous voltage drop in this customer due to a lightning accident is extracted (step S10). The extracted data of the target transmission line is stored in the transmission line database 31 in association with the customer.

Thereafter, when performing financial compensation for the customer in accordance with this contract, the electricity rate discount amount calculation device 20 determines the electricity rate discount amount as follows.
The lightning strike / lightning accident count calculation unit 22 reads out the target transmission line from the transmission line database 31 and specifies a mesh (target area) with latitude and longitude including the read target transmission line, for example, every 15 minutes. Read the number of lightning strikes by lightning current value last year in the specified target area stored in the annual number of lightning strikes / thunder accidents database 32, and based on the read number of lightning strikes by lightning current value last year The number of lightning strikes is extracted for each lightning current value. Further, the lightning strike / lightning accident frequency calculation unit 22 calculates the target based on the relationship between the number of lightning accidents last year and the lightning current value in the target transmission line stored in the annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency database 32. The relationship between the number of lightning accidents in the transmission line and the lightning current value is calculated (step S11). An example of the result is shown in FIGS.

The lightning strike frequency / lightning accident frequency relationship analysis unit 23 calculates the number of lightning strikes by lightning current value in the target area obtained by the lightning strike frequency / lightning accident frequency calculation unit 22 and the number of lightning accidents and lightning current values in the target transmission line. For example, a regression line y = ax + b (where a is a regression coefficient, b is obtained by performing a regression analysis on the relationship between the number of lightning strikes and the number of lightning accidents with a lightning current value of, for example, 40 kA or more in this target area. Is a regression constant) (step S12). In the example shown in FIG. 5, the regression line is represented by the following equation.
y = 0.0092x-0.3593
Note that the coefficient of determination (R-square value) in this regression analysis is 0.7701.
Since the number of lightning accidents in the target transmission line and the number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer are almost the same, if the annual number of lightning strikes x of lightning current value of 40 kA or more in this target area is determined based on the obtained regression line, this target transmission The estimated number of instantaneous voltage drops y in the electric wire is obtained.

 The annual lightning strike probability analysis unit 24, based on the data of lightning strikes by lightning current value stored in the annual lightning strike / lightning accident count database 32, generates a lightning current of 40 kA or more for the past several years in this target area. The number of lightning strikes per year (see FIG. 6) is obtained, and the probability distribution of the number of lightning strikes per year with a lightning current value of 40 kA or more as shown in FIG. 7 is obtained (step S13). The annual lightning strike probability analysis unit 24 obtains, for example, the number of occurrences of lightning with a lightning current value of 40 kA or more with a probability of 80% or more based on the probability distribution of the number of lightning strikes of 40 kA or more. (Step S14). In the example shown in FIG. 7, in the target area, the number of lightning strikes with a lightning current value of 40 kA or more with a probability of 80% or more is 120 times or more per year.

The electricity price discount amount calculation unit 25 includes a relationship between the number of lightning strikes and the number of lightning accidents with a lightning current value of 40 kA or more analyzed by the annual lightning strike / lightning accident relationship analysis unit 23, and an annual lightning strike probability analysis unit 24. Based on the analyzed lightning current probability of the lightning current value of 40 kA or more and the annual number of lightning strikes, an electricity bill discount is calculated by the following equation (step S15).
Electricity discount amount = G x Y
Y = 0.0092X-0.3593 where X> 120
here,
G: Economic loss per customer's instantaneous voltage drop pre-set from past performance data Y: Number of customer's instantaneous drop estimated from regression analysis X: Lightning current with a lightning current value of 40 kA or more in this fiscal year Annual results

  Thereby, for example, the amount of economic loss (G) per customer's instantaneous voltage drop set in advance from past performance data is 5 million yen, and lightning strikes with a lightning current value of 40 kA or more in the past year If the number of times per year is 250 times, the customer is discounted to 9.7 million yen (= 5 million yen x (0.0092 x 250-0.3593)). However, when the annual number of lightning strikes with a lightning current value of 40 kA or more in the past year is less than 120 times (for example, 90 times), there is no discount on the electricity bill for the customer.

  As described above, in the power supply calculation system 10 for the instantaneous voltage drop according to the present embodiment, the number of lightning strikes according to the lightning current value last year in the customer target area and the number of lightning accidents and lightning current last year in the customer target transmission line. Electricity discount discount amount is determined based on the number of instantaneous voltage drops caused by the customer's self-report, in order to determine the electricity charge discount amount based on the number of instantaneous voltage drops (number of lightning accidents) estimated from regression analysis based on the relationship with the value. Compared with the method of determining the electricity charge discount amount based on the number of lightning accidents determined by the power company or the power company, the electricity charge discount amount can be determined more objectively.

In the above description, the number of lightning strikes is determined in units of target areas (lattices and longitudes including the target transmission lines are, for example, 15-minute intervals), but the number of lightning strikes may be calculated in units of target transmission lines. . However, in this case, in order to obtain the number of lightning strikes in units of target transmission lines, it is necessary to provide a device that counts the number of lightning strikes in units of steel towers, for example.
Although the number of lightning strikes targeted for lightning current value and monetary compensation is 40 kA or more and 80% or more, other numerical values may be used. In particular, the lightning current value may vary depending on the lightning protection strength of the transmission line (number of insulators, voltage, column status, ground resistance value of the support, etc.). In this case, lightning strength data of each power transmission line is stored in the power transmission line database 31, and the annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency calculation unit 22 calculates the relationship between the number of lightning accidents and the lightning current value in the target power transmission line. When doing so (see step S11), the minimum lightning current value may be changed for each transmission line.
The number of lightning strikes / lightning accident frequency calculation unit 22 used the number of lightning strikes by lightning current value last year in the target area and the relationship between the number of lightning accidents last year and the lightning current value in the target transmission line. The number of lightning strikes by lightning current value for several years and the relationship between the number of lightning accidents for the past several years in the target transmission line and the lightning current value may be used. In this case, the annual average of the obtained results is adopted.
The electricity rate discount amount calculation apparatus 20 includes a transmission line extraction / mapping unit 21 that extracts a target transmission line. Instead of including the transmission line extraction / mapping unit 21, a person in charge calculates an electricity rate discount amount for the target transmission line. You may input into the apparatus 20. FIG. Alternatively, the number of voltage drops at the customer's power receiving point may be directly obtained.
In the annual lightning strike / lightning accident count relationship analysis unit 23, a regression line is obtained by regression analysis, but an nth order polynomial may be obtained by regression analysis.

Next, a description will be given of a system and method for calculating an electricity rate corresponding to an instantaneous voltage drop according to a second embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in FIG. 8, the electric voltage calculation system 100 corresponding to the instantaneous voltage drop according to the present embodiment (hereinafter referred to as “instantaneous voltage reduction electric charge calculation system 100”) is connected to the electric charge discount amount calculation device 20. And an insurance premium calculation device 110 for calculating an insurance premium collected by the electric power company from the customer when the customer makes a contract for monetary compensation when an instantaneous voltage drop occurs at the customer. In this respect, it is different from the instantaneous voltage reduction type electricity bill calculation system 10 according to the first embodiment shown in FIG.

  Here, the insurance fee calculation device 110 uses the regression line (for example, y = 0.0092x−0.3593) obtained by the annual lightning strike / lightning accident relation analysis unit 23 to determine the number of lightning accidents in the target transmission line. Lightning accident frequency estimation unit 111 for estimating the lightning accident frequency estimated by lightning accident frequency estimation unit 111 and the annual lightning frequency probability of lightning current values greater than a certain value analyzed by lightning frequency probability analysis unit 24 ( A discount expected amount calculation unit 112 that calculates a discounted expected amount of electricity charges for the number of lightning strikes based on the lightning occurrence probability), and an insurance that calculates an insurance premium based on the discount expected amount calculated by the discount expected amount calculation unit 112 And a fee calculation unit 113.

Next, the operation of the electric voltage calculation system 100 for the instantaneous voltage drop corresponding to the present embodiment will be described. The operation other than the insurance fee calculation device 110 is the electric charge for the instantaneous voltage reduction according to the first embodiment shown in FIG. Since it is the same as that of the calculation system 10, only operation | movement of the insurance premium calculation apparatus 110 is demonstrated with reference to Table 1 and FIG.

  As shown in Table 1, the lightning accident frequency estimation unit 111 divides the number of lightning strikes from 0 to 375 into 14 stages, and the intermediate value of the number of lightning strikes at each stage is obtained by the annual lightning strike probability analysis unit 24. By substituting for a variable x on a straight line (for example, y = 0.0092x−0.3593), the number of voltage sags of the customer for each stage of the number of lightning strikes is estimated (step S21).

The discount expected amount calculation unit 112 calculates the discounted electricity bill for each stage of the number of lightning strikes according to the following equation based on the number of instantaneous drops estimated by the lightning accident frequency estimation unit 111 (step S22).
Electricity discount amount = G x Y
Y = 0.0092X-0.3593 where X> 120
here,
G: Economic loss per customer's instantaneous voltage drop set in advance from past performance data Y: Number of customer's instantaneous drop estimated by lightning accident frequency estimation unit 111 X: Number of lightning strikes at each stage Intermediate value Further, the discount expected amount calculation unit 112 multiplies the calculated electricity rate discount amount by the lightning occurrence probability obtained by the annual lightning frequency probability analysis unit 24 to obtain a discount expectation of the electricity rate for each stage of the number of lightning strikes. The amount is calculated (step S23). For example, the expected discount amount of electricity charges at each stage of the number of lightning strikes when the economic loss (G) per customer's instantaneous voltage drop set in advance from past performance data is 5 million yen The amount is as shown in 1.

  The insurance premium calculation unit 113 divides the total expected discount amount calculated by the discount expected amount calculation unit 112 (7 million yen) by “12” to obtain the monthly insurance premium (about 58.3 million yen). Calculate (step S24).

  As a result, instead of paying a fixed amount of insurance premiums, the customer can obtain a large discount on electricity charges when the number of lightning strikes is large during the current fiscal year.

In Table 1, the number of lightning strikes 0 to 375 is divided into 14 stages, but the maximum number of lightning strikes and the number of divisions may be arbitrarily set. Further, the expected discount amount may be calculated for each lightning strike, and in this case, it is not necessary to obtain an intermediate value of the number of lightning strikes.
The premium calculation unit 113 calculates the monthly premium (about 58.3 million yen) by dividing the total expected discount amount calculated by the discount expected amount calculation unit 112 (7 million yen) by "12". However, after dividing the total expected discount amount (7 million yen) by “12”, a certain margin may be added to make the monthly premium. Insurance premiums may be added and collected as part of the electricity bill.

  As described above, the electric voltage calculation apparatus and method for instantaneous voltage drop corresponding to the present invention provide a discount for electric charges when the customer is compensated for an instantaneous voltage drop caused by a lightning accident in an overhead power transmission line. It can be used to calculate the amount and the premium associated with this monetary compensation.

It is a figure which shows the structure of the voltage drop corresponding | compatible electric bill calculation apparatus by 1st Example of this invention. Example 1 It is a flowchart for demonstrating operation | movement of the voltage drop corresponding | compatible electric bill calculation apparatus 10 shown in FIG. Example 1 It is a figure which shows an example of the lightning strike frequency according to the lightning current value extracted by the annual lightning strike frequency / lightning accident frequency calculation part 22 shown in FIG. Example 1 It is a figure which shows an example of the relationship between the lightning accident frequency and the lightning current value which were calculated by the annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency calculation part 22 shown in FIG. Example 1 It is a figure which shows an example of the regression line calculated | required by the annual lightning strike frequency / lightning accident frequency relationship analysis part 23 shown in FIG. Example 1 It is a figure which shows an example of the annual lightning strike frequency of the lightning current value of 40 kA or more for the past several years read by the annual lightning strike probability analysis part 24 shown in FIG. Example 1 It is a figure which shows an example of probability distribution of the annual number of lightning strike of the lightning current value of 40 kA or more for the past several years calculated | required by the annual lightning strike probability analysis part 24 shown in FIG. Example 1 It is a figure which shows the structure of the electrical charge calculation apparatus corresponding to the instantaneous voltage drop by 2nd Example of this invention. (Example 2) It is a flowchart for demonstrating operation | movement of the insurance premium calculation apparatus 110 shown in FIG. (Example 2)

Explanation of symbols

10,100 Instantaneous voltage reduction type electricity rate calculation device 20 Electricity rate discount amount calculation device 21 Transmission line extraction / mapping unit 22 Lightning strike / lightning accident frequency calculation unit 23 Annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency relation analysis unit 24 Annual lightning strike probability Analysis unit 25 Electricity rate discount calculation unit 31 Transmission line database 32 Annual number of lightning strikes and lightning accidents database 40 Lightning location device 110 Insurance fee calculation device 111 Lightning accident frequency estimation unit 112 Discount expected amount calculation unit 113 Insurance fee calculation unit S10 ~ S15, S21 ~ S24 Step

Claims (8)

An electricity rate calculation system for instantaneous voltage drop to compensate for a customer's instantaneous voltage drop caused by a lightning accident on a target transmission line,
Based on the relationship between the number of lightning strikes with a lightning current value above a certain past value in the target area and the relationship between the number of lightning accidents on the target transmission line and the lightning current value, the lightning current above a certain past value in the target area. Means for analyzing the relationship between the number of lightning strikes of the value and the number of lightning accidents of the target transmission line,
An annual lightning strike probability analysis means (24) for analyzing a probability of an annual lightning strike of a lightning current value of a certain value or more based on an annual number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value of a certain value or more in the past in the target area;
The relationship between the annual number of lightning strikes and the number of lightning accidents of the target transmission line and the probability analysis of the annual number of lightning strikes, which is analyzed by the annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency relationship analysis means (23). An electricity rate discount amount calculating means (25) for calculating an electricity rate discount amount based on the probability of the annual number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value of a certain value or more analyzed by the means (24);
An electricity rate calculation system for instantaneous voltage drop. The relationship between the number of lightning strikes per year and the number of lightning accidents (23) is a regression analysis of the relationship between the number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value above a certain value in the target area and the number of lightning accidents of the target transmission line,
The electricity price discount amount calculation means (25) calculates the annual number of lightning strikes in the target area based on the probability of the number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value of a certain value or more analyzed by the annual lightning strike probability analysis unit (24). Only when the number is equal to or greater than a predetermined number of times, the electric charge discount amount is calculated by multiplying the number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer estimated from the regression analysis for the target transmission line by a predetermined economic loss amount,
The system for calculating an electricity rate corresponding to an instantaneous voltage drop according to claim 1. The electricity rate discount amount calculation means (25) calculates the electricity rate discount amount according to the following equation: Electricity rate discount amount = G × Y
Y = aX + b
here,
G: Economic loss per customer's instantaneous voltage drop set in advance from past performance data Y: Customer's instantaneous voltage drop estimated from regression analysis X: Lightning current value above a specified value in this year The lightning frequency annual performance of a: Regression coefficient obtained by the regression analysis b: Regression constant obtained by the regression analysis The system for calculating an electricity rate corresponding to an instantaneous voltage drop according to claim 2. The instantaneous voltage drop corresponding electricity bill calculation system is
An electricity bill discount calculation device (20);
A transmission line database (31) connected to the electricity price discount amount calculation device (20) and storing data of the target transmission line in association with a customer;
A year in which data on the number of lightning strikes by lightning current value and data on the relationship between the number of lightning accidents and the lightning current value are stored in association with a power transmission line every year, connected to the electricity price discount calculation device (20). A database of lightning strikes and lightning accidents (32)
The electricity bill discount amount calculation device (20)
Extracting the number of lightning strikes in the target area for each lightning current value and calculating the relationship between the number of lightning accidents in the target transmission line and the lightning current value;
Based on the number of lightning strikes for each lightning current value in the target area and the relationship between the number of lightning accidents in the target transmission line and the lightning current value obtained by the lightning strike / lightning accident frequency calculation unit (22). An annual lightning strike / thunder accident frequency relationship analysis unit (23) for performing a regression analysis of the relationship between the number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value above a certain value in the past and the number of instantaneous voltage drops of a customer;
An annual lightning strike probability analysis unit (24) for analyzing a probability of an annual lightning strike of a lightning current value of a certain value or more based on an annual number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value of a certain value or more in the past in the target area;
The relationship between the annual number of lightning strikes and the number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer, and the annual lightning strike probability analysis unit that has been subjected to regression analysis by the annual lightning strike / lightning accident relationship analysis unit (23). An electricity rate discount amount calculation unit (25) that calculates an electricity rate discount amount based on the probability of the annual number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value equal to or greater than a certain value analyzed in (24),
The system for calculating an electricity rate corresponding to an instantaneous voltage drop according to any one of claims 1 to 3.   5. The instantaneous voltage drop correspondence type according to claim 4, wherein the electricity rate discount amount calculation device further includes a transmission line extraction / mapping unit that extracts and maps the target transmission line. Electricity charge calculation system. The electric voltage calculation system corresponding to the instantaneous voltage drop further includes an insurance fee calculation device (110) connected to the electricity fee discount amount calculation device (20) and calculating an insurance fee,
The insurance premium calculation device (110)
A lightning accident frequency estimation unit (111) for estimating the number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer in the target area based on a regression analysis in the annual lightning strike / lightning accident frequency relationship analysis unit (23);
Based on the customer's instantaneous voltage drop frequency estimated by the lightning accident frequency estimation unit (111) and the probability of annual lightning strikes of lightning current values greater than a certain value analyzed by the annual lightning frequency probability analysis unit (24). A discount expected amount calculation unit (112) for calculating a discount expected amount of electricity charges for the number of lightning strikes;
An insurance premium calculation unit (113) that calculates the insurance premium based on the discount expected amount calculated by the discount expected amount calculation unit (112);
6. The system for calculating an electricity rate corresponding to an instantaneous voltage drop according to claim 4 or 5. An electric voltage calculation method for an instantaneous voltage drop to compensate for an instantaneous voltage drop of a customer due to a lightning accident of a target transmission line,
Based on the relationship between the number of lightning strikes with a lightning current value above a certain past value in the target area and the relationship between the number of lightning accidents on the target transmission line and the lightning current value, the lightning current above a certain past value in the target area. A step of regression analysis of the relationship between the number of lightning strikes and the number of lightning accidents (S12);
Analyzing the probability of the annual number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value above a certain value based on the number of lightning strikes of a lightning current value above a certain value in the past in the target area (S13, 14);
The target transmission line is estimated from the regression analysis only when the annual number of lightning strikes in the target area is equal to or greater than a predetermined number based on the probability of annual lightning strikes of the lightning current value greater than or equal to the analyzed value. Multiplying the number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer by a predetermined economic loss amount to calculate the discounted electricity bill (S15);
An electric charge calculation method for instantaneous voltage drop. Estimating the number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer in the target transmission line based on the regression analysis (S21);
A step of calculating a discounted expected amount of electricity bill for the number of lightning strikes based on the estimated number of instantaneous voltage drops of the customer and the probability of annual lightning strikes of the lightning current value exceeding a certain value analyzed (S22, 23) When,
Calculating the premium based on the calculated expected discount amount (S24);
The method of claim 7, further comprising:

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