JP4450759B2 - Meter installation / removal number prediction system, meter installation / removal number prediction method - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a meter attachment / detachment number prediction system and a prediction method for predicting the number of meter attachments and the number of removals by using data processing of a computer.

  Meters that measure utility usage, for example, gas meters that measure gas usage, have a number code set for each type of household or business use, and specify the number code when installing and removing. You need to order a meter. Here, for example, when installing or removing the gas meter, when the certification validity period (for example, 10 years) expires (verification), when the new code is installed, when the number of buildings is lost, or when the number code is increased due to equipment renewal This is done when there is a reason to remove the attachment (except when the number is changed and when the inspection is completed). And, in order to determine the number of meter orders (new number, reused number) when installing and removing the meter, the number of attachments and removals are predicted for each data aggregation period (for example, every month) and for each number. There is a need to.

  The number of meter installations and removals has conventionally been predicted when the meter installation / removal operation is completed, the number code of the installation meter, the number code of the removal meter, the date of installation / removal, etc. By manually inputting this information into the form, the actual number of meters attached and removed was recorded, and the total number of meters ordered was predicted based on the contents of the form. More specifically, we have a standard pattern created based on the actual number of meters installed and removed, and forecast from the trends in the number of meters installed and removed in the last 1 or 2 months. The number of installations and removals for the target month was determined. It should be noted that there was no prior art document relating to the prediction of the number of attached and removed meters.

  However, the conventional method for predicting the number of orders for a meter predicts the total number of orders for a meter, and does not perform predictions for reasons of attachment / detachment or numbers (by type). In other words, there is no data suitable for forecasting the number of installations and removals by number, and the accuracy of forecasting the number of installations and removals by number cannot be guaranteed. There is a problem in that there is a risk of overflowing or out of stock. Moreover, since it was described in the book by manual input, there was a problem that there was a possibility that a description error, a description omission, etc. would occur.

The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and its purpose is to automate the collection and prediction of data related to the number of attached and detached meters, reduce human error, and improve the prediction accuracy. The object is to provide a system and method for predicting the number of removed meter attachments that can be enhanced.

  In order to achieve the above object, a meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to the present invention is a meter attachment / detachment number prediction system that predicts the number of meter attachments and the number of removals for utility usage by computer data processing. And a database for storing the total number of meters in use in a predetermined period of the data collection period, organized by test expiration time, by type and by time, and the type and test expiration time when the meter is attached, For each meter installation work, meter removal work, or meter installation / removal work, input the type of removal when the meter is removed, the expiration date of verification, the reason for removal, and the installation / removal data including the time of installation / removal. Accepting, based on the data removal unit to be registered in the database, and the attachment removal data for each data collection period, at least for each attachment removal reason, The data totaling unit that counts the number of attachments and the number of removals according to different time periods and registers them in the database, and when the totaling process for each data totaling period by the data totaling unit is completed, automatically An attachment / detachment number predicting unit that calculates a predicted value of the number of attachments and the number of removals at the prediction target time based on the registered record data is provided.

  Here, the utility is gas, electric power, water supply, or the like, and in particular, the utility whose certification validity period is prescribed in the measurement law. According to the meter installation / removal number prediction system with the above characteristics, data is received and processed every day for meter installation work, meter removal work, or meter installation / removal work. The number and the removal number can be predicted, and the prediction accuracy can be improved. In addition, as in the present invention, by automating the collection and prediction of data related to the number of installed and removed meters, human error is reduced, and the predicted values of the number of installed and removed at the prediction target time are reduced. The calculation result can be obtained easily and early.

  The meter installation / removal number prediction system according to the present invention having the above-described characteristics is further provided, wherein the data totaling unit is classified according to type and reason for each period based on the installation / removal data for each data aggregation period. The total number of attachments, total number of attachments, number of removals by reason of attachment removal, and total number of removals are respectively calculated, and the total number of the meters in use at the end of the data aggregation period is calculated, Based on the first totalization unit to be registered in the database and the above-mentioned attachment removal data for each data collection period, the number of attachments whose attachment removal reason is the expiration date, attachment, for each examination expiration date, type, and time The number of removals whose reasons for removal are other than the expiration of the certification, and the total number of installations, respectively, calculate the total number of the meters in use at the end of the period, and register the second totaling unit in the database; It is characterized by providing.

  In the measurement method, it is necessary to reliably remove the meter and install a new meter by the time of the completion of the test. Therefore, the removal of the meter and the installation of the meter at the time of the test are highly predictable. Therefore, according to the meter installation / removal number prediction system having the above characteristics, the number of removals and installations at the time of high-certainty prediction, and the number of removals other than at the time of low-prediction low reliability such as failure The number of removals and the number of installations are tabulated roughly according to the number of installations, so the prediction accuracy of the number of removals and the number of installations at the time of inspection can be improved, and the prediction accuracy for the number of removals and the total number of installations is improved. Can be made.

  Furthermore, in the meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to the present invention of any one of the above features, the attachment / detachment number prediction unit is configured to perform the prediction target time period according to the type based on performance data registered in the database. A predicted value of the number of attachments and the number of removals may be calculated, and the attachment / detachment number prediction unit may attach the attachment at the prediction target time for each reason of the attachment removal based on the actual data registered in the database. The predicted value of the number and the removal number may be calculated.

  According to the meter installation / removal number prediction system of the above feature, the data totaling unit has registered in the database the data for totaling the number of installations and removals for each type of installation / removal reason, by type, and by time. In particular, since the predicted values of the number of attachments and the number of removals by type necessary for determining the number of orders for the meter are directly calculated, it is possible to improve the prediction accuracy. In addition, by calculating the number of attachments and the predicted value of the number of removals for each reason for attachment / detachment, the predicted value can be calculated in consideration of a characteristic tendency for the reason for attachment / detachment, and the prediction accuracy is improved. be able to.

  Further, the meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to the present invention of any one of the above features, the estimated number of attachments and removal numbers calculated by the attachment / detachment number prediction unit, via a computer network, A data transmission unit for transmitting to a predetermined transmission destination is provided.

  According to the meter installation / removal number prediction system having the above characteristics, by providing the data transmission unit, the calculation result of the predicted value of the number of installations and the number of removals is received at any place where the computer network is installed. Can do. For this reason, the freedom degree concerning construction of the present invention can be raised.

  DESCRIPTION OF EMBODIMENTS Hereinafter, an embodiment of a meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to the present invention (hereinafter abbreviated as “the present system” as appropriate) will be described with reference to the drawings.

  The present invention is applied to a meter attachment / detachment number prediction system that predicts the number of attached and removed meters for utility usage by computer data processing. This embodiment demonstrates the case where gas is assumed as a utility. In addition, the meter handled in the present embodiment includes a bar code or information including information such as the type (number code) and the expiration date of the test (the expiration date of the test validity period, hereinafter referred to as the test expiration date). Is attached. In this embodiment, one month is assumed as the data aggregation period, and the predetermined period of the data aggregation period is described as the beginning of the month.

  First, the configuration of the system of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. Here, FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of the system 1 of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, the system 1 of the present invention includes a database 10, a data input unit 11, and a data totaling unit 12 that store the total number of meters in use at the beginning of the month sorted by year, type, and month. The mounting / removal number predicting unit 15 is provided. In the present embodiment, a data transmission unit 16 is further provided. Moreover, the portable terminal 2 for inputting the attachment / detachment data 10a of a meter for every operation | work and used for each operation | work is provided.

  The portable terminal 2 has a function of reading the information of the barcode attached to the meter, acquires the attachment / detachment data 10a from the barcode, and transmits it to the data input unit 11. Further, an ID input is accepted for a meter that is not attached with a barcode. In addition, when receiving input of ID, you may comprise so that a number code may be automatically acquired based on the data table which shows the relationship between ID and a number code.

  Here, an input procedure of the attachment / detachment data 10a in the meter attachment work, the meter removal work or the meter attachment / detachment work will be described with reference to FIG. Prior to each operation, the mobile terminal 2 first receives an input of a user number (step # 101). Subsequently, the reading of the removal meter barcode or the input of the ID is accepted (step # 102). If only the meter mounting operation is to be performed, no input is entered and the process proceeds to the next step. Subsequently, the barcode of the mounting meter is read (step # 103). If only the meter removal operation is performed, the process proceeds to the next step as no input. Subsequently, the portable terminal 2 accepts an input of the reason for attachment / detachment (step # 104). Here, the reason for the attachment / detachment is configured to be selected from predetermined options. Finally, the portable terminal 2 uses the data input unit 11 to send the installation / removal data 10a including the current date, the information of the removal meter, the information of the mounting meter, and the reason for the mounting / removal as the implementation date of each operation. To the database 10 (step # 105).

  Next, the function of the system 1 of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.

  The data input unit 11 is a mounting / removal data including the type when the meter is attached and the certification expiration date, the type and the certification expiration date when the meter is removed, the reason for mounting / removing, and the mounting / removing date. The input of 10a is accepted for each meter mounting operation, meter removing operation or meter mounting / removing operation and registered in the database 10. In this embodiment, it is configured to acquire the attachment removal data 10a such as the meter code and the expiration date of the meter from the portable terminal 2 for each work.

Here, FIG. 3 shows an example of the data structure of the attachment / detachment data 10 a registered in the database 10. Specifically, “Date code” is the key field, and “Removable meter number code”, “Validation date”, “Mounting meter number code” and “Opportunity” fields are set. . In the present embodiment, a “user number” field is further set. Specifically, the “year / month / day” field stores the date when the meter installation work, the meter removal work, or the meter installation / removal work was actually performed in all work. Further, the “number code of removal meter” field stores the number code of the removal meter when the meter is removed. The “expiration date” field stores the expiry date when the meter is removed. The “number code of attached meter” field stores the number code of the attached meter when the meter is attached. The “opportunity” field registers the reason for the removal of the attachment in all operations. Reasons for removal of the meter include new installation (new installation of meter), reinstatement (re-installation of meter), change of number (excluding type change, at the time of inspection), failure, inspection, complete removal (removal of house, etc.) Removal) and take-away (removal of meter excluding total removal). Any of these is set in the “Opportunity” field. In the present embodiment, since the verification validity period of the meter is normally 10 years, when a new meter is attached, that is, when the number code of the attached meter is recorded, “validation date” The field is basically left blank. However, when the removed meter is reused and attached, that is, when reinstatement is selected as the reason for removal, the verification validity period of the reuse meter is usually less than 10 years. The expiration date of the examination is memorized in the “Full Year” field.

  The data input unit 11 of the present embodiment further displays an error message on the portable terminal 2 when necessary data is not input or when unnecessary data is input, and correct installation is performed again. Prompt to input outside data 10a. Specifically, for example, when “new” or “revival” is specified in the “opportunity” field, and data is entered in the “number code of the removal meter”, the division is specified in the “opportunity” field. When the data is input in the “number code of the mounting meter”, an error message is displayed on the portable terminal 2.

  Based on the monthly attachment / detachment data 10a, the data totaling unit 12 counts the number of attachments and the number of removals for each reason for attachment / detachment, for each type, and for each month, and registers them in the database 10. Furthermore, the data totaling unit 12 according to the present embodiment, based on the monthly mounting / removal data 10a, installs the number of installations by reason of installation / removal, the total number of installations, and the removal by installation / removal reason. The total number of outsides and the total number of removals are totaled, the total number of meters in use at the end of the month is calculated, and the first totaling unit 13 registered in the database 10 and the monthly mounting removal data 10a are used. The number of removals for which the reason for removal of the installation is the completion of the examination, the number of removals for which the reason for the removal of the installation is other than the expiration of the examination, and the total number of installations are totaled by the date of completion of the certification, by type and month. And a second totaling unit 14 for calculating the total number of meters in use and registering it in the database 10.

  The 1st totalization part 13 totals the attachment removal data 10a at the end of the month. Specifically, the first tabulation unit 13 firstly attaches / detaches data 10a for a predetermined number code from the attachment / detachment data 10a registered in the database 10 during the month of the month to be counted at the end of the month. To extract. The 1st totalization part 13 totalizes the number of the attachment removal data 10a according to the attachment removal reason about the extracted attachment removal data 10a. Furthermore, the total number of attachment / detachment data 10a having attachment / detachment reasons related to meter installation (new establishment, reinstatement, change in number, inspection, etc.) is calculated, and the reason for attachment / detachment related to meter removal (change, change, The total number of attachment / detachment data 10a having failure, inspection, complete removal, etc.) is calculated. Then, the total number of these is added to calculate the total number of attachments and removals. The first counting unit 13 includes the number of attachment / detachment data 10a for each attachment / detachment reason, the total number of attachment / detachment data 10a related to the attachment reason, the total number of attachment / detachment data 10a related to the removal reason, and the attachment The number and the total number of removals are combined as one record. The first counting unit 13 creates records for all the issue number codes and stores the records in the database 10. Here, FIG. 4 shows an example of the counting result registered by the first counting unit 13. The 1st totalization part 13 produces a card according to number code. Each card is configured to register the reason for attachment / detachment and the number of meters per month, and a record can be added every month.

  Similar to the first totalization unit 13, the second totalization unit 14 totalizes the attachment / detachment data 10a at the end of the month. Specifically, the second totalization unit 14 firstly attaches / detaches data 10a for a predetermined number code from the installation / removal data 10a registered in the database 10 during one month of the target month at the end of the month. Is extracted and the extracted attachment removal data 10a is totaled as the total number of months in the target month. The second totaling unit 14 qualifies and removes the mounting / removal data 10a related to the detachment meter in the extracted mounting / removal data 10a and the reason for the mounting / removal is validation. Count as a number. Further, the second totalization unit 14 calculates the attachment / detachment data 10a related to the removal meter, and the attachment / detachment data 10a whose attachment / detachment reason is other than validation is tabulated as the number of removals other than validation. The total number of attachment / detachment data 10a related to the above is tabulated as the number of attachments. The second totalization unit 14 calculates (total number at the beginning of the month-number of inspections removed-number of removals other than verification + number of attachments) as the remaining number at the end of the month to be counted. The second totalization unit 14 summarizes the total number at the beginning of the month, the number of completed inspections, the number of removals other than the verification, the number of attachments, and the remaining number at the end of the month into one record. The second counting unit 14 creates records for all the issue number codes and stores the records in the database 10. Here, FIG. 5 shows an example of the counting result registered by the second counting unit 14. The second counting unit 14 creates cards for each month and each issue code. Each card can register a record including the total number at the beginning of the month, the number of inspections removed, the number of removals other than the inspection, the number of attachments, and the remaining number at the end of the month for each month of inspection.

  The attachment removal number prediction unit 15 automatically calculates the number of attachments and the number of removals in the prediction target month based on the actual data registered in the database 10 when the monthly aggregation process by the data aggregation unit 12 ends. Calculate the predicted value. In the present embodiment, a predicted value is calculated for each reason for attachment / detachment. Here, a predicted value is calculated for each of the reasons for removal of attachments such as inspection, new installation, total removal, change of sign, and failure.

  First, calculation of the number of attachments and the predicted value of the number of removals in the prediction target month when validation is set as the reason for attachment removal will be described. Here, a predicted value of the number of removal is calculated, and the number of attachments is calculated using the predicted value of the number of removal.

Specifically, the removal number is obtained for each number code. The number of removals EO _i due to the validation of the meter with the number code i is calculated by multiplying the total number Et of the meters to be validated by the construction rate Ar and adding these. The removal number EO _i is given by the equation (1). Note that i is a variable indicating the number code. n represents a month, and n = 0 is set as a prediction target month.

[Equation 1]
EO _i = Σ _n {Et _i (n) × Ar (n)}, (n = 0, 1, 2, 3)

Here, Et _i (n) is the number of meters of the number code i whose test validity period expires after n months. Ar (n) is a construction rate after n months of the prediction target month. The construction rate Ar (n) is not used to remove all certification completion meters in the certification expiration month, but considers the amount of work in each month, and the certification completion meter for months with a bias in work volume. This is because a part of the meter removal work is performed before the expiration date of the certification. The construction rate Ar (n) of the present embodiment is obtained using the number of inspection orders for the most recent year and the actual value of the construction rate, and is given by the equation (2).

[Equation 2]
Ar (n) = Ar (n−1) × {Ar ′ (n) / Ar ′ (n−1)}

  Here, Ar (n−1) is the actual value of the construction rate of the previous month Ar (n) calculation, Ar ′ (n) is the actual value of the construction rate of the same month Ar (n) calculation last year, Ar ′ ( n-1) is the actual value of the construction rate of the previous month Ar (n) calculation last year.

The number EA _p of the number code p meter is specifically calculated by multiplying the number of removals EO by validation by the number code and the transition rate I to the meter of the number code p, and adding these. calculate. The number of attachments EA _p is given by the equation (3).

[Equation 3]
EA _p = Σ _i {EO _i × I _ip }

The transition rate I _ip here is determined using the actual value of the transition rate for the latest three months. Here, FIG. 6 shows an example of the transition rate I, which is registered in the database 10. This transition rate I is set for each month and every reason for removal of attachment, and numbers 1 to 3 and A to C are assumed as removal meters, and numbers A to C are assumed as attachment meters. The reason why the number 1 to 3 is not assumed for the mounting meter indicates a case where the production is discontinued due to a change in standard or standardization of the meter.

Next, calculation of the predicted value of the number of attachments in the prediction target month when new establishment and reinstatement are set as reasons for attachment removal will be described. For new installations, the number of installations is determined by number. Specifically, the mounting number AN _p by new and revival of the meter of issue number p is determined using the issue number Share by S _up the meter by type of standard mounting number AS _u and type u, number 4 Is given by

[Equation 4]
AN _p = AS _u × a × S _up

Here, a is a coefficient. The standard installation number AS _u is the average of the actual values of the number of installations for the same month for three years to be predicted. Issue number Share by S _up, the issue number of the meter (type) is a transition of another share, determined on the basis of the transition of the actual value of the most recent three months. The types here are a household general meter, a household meter with a communication function, a commercial general meter, a commercial meter with a communication function, a microcomputer-less meter, a microcomputer-less transmitter-equipped meter, and the like.

Next, calculation of the predicted value of the number of removals in the prediction target month when removal and take-home are set as reasons for attachment removal will be described. Specifically, detaching the number O _p of the meter of issue number code p multiplies the total removal and soon ratio Or _p meter of total MT _p and issue number code p meter of issue number code p It is obtained and is given by the equation (5). Here, the total removal rate is determined based on the results of the total removal rate over the past three months.

[Equation 5]
O _p = MT _p × Or _p

  Next, calculation of the number of attachments and the predicted value of the number of removals in the prediction target month when the change in the number is set as the reason for attachment removal will be described. Here, a predicted value of the number of removal is calculated, and the number of attachments is calculated using the predicted value of the number of removal.

Specifically, the removal number CO _i of the meter of the number code i is obtained by multiplying the total number of meters of the number code i by the sign change rate Cr, and is given by the equation (6). The sign change rate Cr here is determined using the actual value of the sign change rate for the past three months.

[Equation 6]
CO _i = MT _i × Cr _i

Specifically, the number CA _p of the meter with the number code p is multiplied by the removal number CO due to the change in the number code and the transition rate I to the meter with the number code p, and adds these. To calculate. The attachment number CA _p is given by the equation (7). The transition rate I here is determined using the actual value of the transition rate for the past three months.

[Equation 7]
CA _p = Σ _i {CO _i × I _ip }

  Next, calculation of the number of attachments and the predicted value of the number of removals in the prediction target month when a failure is set as the reason for removal of attachment will be described. Here, a predicted value of the number of removal is calculated, and the number of attachments is calculated using the predicted value of the number of removal.

Specifically, detaching the number BO _i meter of issue number code i is prompted by multiplying the failure rate Br _i meter of total MT _i and issue number code i meter of issue number code i, the number Is given by the equation (8). In addition, the failure rate Br _i here is determined from the actual results of the failure rate of the past three months.

[Equation 8]
BO _i = MT _i × Br _i

The number of installations BA _p of the number code _p is specifically calculated by multiplying the removal number BO _i due to the failure of the meter of the number code i by the transition rate I _ip to the number code p and adding these. To calculate. The number of attachments BA _p is given by Equation 9. The transition rate I _ip here is determined from the results of the transition rate for the past three months.

[Equation 9]
_{BA p = Σ i {BO i} × I ip}

  The data transmission unit 16 transmits the number of attachments calculated by the attachment removal number prediction unit 15 and the predicted value of the removal number to the predetermined transmission destination 4 via the computer network 3. Here, the respective predicted values for the reasons for removal of attachments such as validation, new installation, total removal, change of sign, and failure are acquired from the attachment removal number prediction unit 15 and transmitted to the transmission destination 4.

<Another embodiment>
<1> In the above embodiment, when the inspection is set as the reason for removing the installation, the construction rate Ar (n) is used as the number of inspection orders for the most recent year and the actual value of the construction rate. Although it calculated | required using the formula of several 2, you may obtain | require using the following several ten formula.

[Equation 10]
Ar (n) = Σ _i {ar _i (n) × Et _i (n)}

Here, _ar i (n) are regression coefficients.

  <2> In each of the above embodiments, the number of attachments in the prediction target month and the predicted value of the number of removals when the validation is set as the reason for attachment removal are obtained using Equation 1, but in Equation 1, Instead of the construction rate Ar (n), the number of constructions in the prediction target month of the meter whose certification validity period expires after n months may be directly calculated.

<3> In each of the above-described embodiments, when a new installation is set as the reason for removal of attachment, the standard attachment number ASu of _Equation 4 has been described as the number of attachments by type. It may be the number of installations according to other classifications such as commercial meters) or by number codes. Furthermore, the above-described embodiments, standard mounting number AS _u has been determined as an average of the actual value of the mounting number of 3 years of the prediction target month, other data, for example, the housing starts statistics and construction starts statistics, etc. It may be obtained from published data, internal information used in sales, etc.

<4> In each of the above embodiments, when the total removal is set as the reason for removing the attachment, the total removal rate Or _p of Formula 5 is calculated based on the results of the total removal rate over the past three months. It is also possible to use statistical data such as the number of lost homes.

  <5> In each of the above embodiments, in the case where the change is set as the reason for removing the attachment, the change rate Cr is obtained using the actual value of the change rate in the past three months. You may use in-house information about your sales.

<6> In each of the above embodiments, when a failure is set as the reason for removing the attachment, the failure rate Br _i is obtained from the results of the failure rate for the past three months. However, using the standard failure rate ABr _i , You may obtain | require from the following Formula 11.

[Equation 11]
Br _i = ABr _i × b

Here, b is a correction coefficient. The standard failure rate ABr _i is an average of the failure rates of the same month to be predicted in the past three years.

<7> In each of the above-described embodiments, when the approval is set as the reason for removal of attachment, the transition rate I used for calculating the number of attachments EA _p in Equation 3 is the data recording the transition rate shown in FIG. However, a configuration may be used in which the real number of transitions is obtained from recorded data.

  <8> In each of the above embodiments, the meters are classified according to number codes. However, the meter may be classified by setting an arbitrary type according to necessity such as home use or business use.

  <9> In each of the above embodiments, gas is assumed as a utility, but other utilities such as electric power and water supply may be used.

  <10> In each of the above embodiments, the data totaling unit 12 totals the attachment / detachment data 10a. However, the data totaling unit 12 may be configured to perform totalization using existing database software and extract and use a necessary result.

The block diagram which shows the structure of the meter attachment removal number prediction system which concerns on this invention The flowchart which shows each input process of the attachment removal data in the meter attachment / detachment number prediction system which concerns on this invention. Schematic explanatory drawing showing the file structure of the database of the meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to the present invention Schematic explanatory drawing showing the file structure of the database of the meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to the present invention Schematic explanatory drawing showing the file structure of the database of the meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to the present invention Schematic explanatory drawing showing the file structure of the database of the meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to the present invention

Explanation of symbols

1: Meter attachment / detachment number prediction system 2: Mobile terminal 3: Computer network 4: Destination 10: Database 10a: Attachment removal data 11: Data input unit 12: Data aggregation unit 13: First aggregation unit 14: Second Aggregation unit 15: Number of installed / removed parts prediction unit
16: Data transmitter

Claims (4)

The computer system includes an input unit, an arithmetic processing unit, a storage unit, and an output unit. By the arithmetic processing in the arithmetic processing unit, the number of attached and removed meters for measuring the utility usage amount within the prediction target period is calculated. A system for predicting the number of meter attachment / detachment to be predicted,
The input means includes number code information indicating the type of meter to be attached or removed at the time of attaching or removing the meter, construction date information on the date when the meter is attached or removed, and meter verification. Expiration date information on the date or month when the period expires, and information on the reason why the meter was installed or removed, selected from multiple types of reasons including the first reason corresponding to the expiration of the verification period Receiving the attachment removal data including each information of the attachment removal reason information corresponding to the one reason, registering the attachment removal data in the database stored in the storage means,
The arithmetic processing means includes a data totaling unit and an attachment removal number predicting unit according to the arithmetic processing content,
The data totaling unit extracts and aggregates the attachment / detachment data registered in the database for each predetermined data aggregation period for each number code information and for each attachment / detachment reason information. Deriving the standard number of units that are installed according to the code information and the reason for removing the attachment, and the number of removed units that are the number of units removed according to the number code information and the reason for removing the attachment. Register in the database,
The attachment / detachment number predicting unit is
The attachment / detachment data is read from the database, and the date or month indicated by the expiration date information is the number of data that belongs to the prediction target period, and the date or month indicated by the expiration date information is the prediction. The reference number for construction rate calculation, which is the number of data belonging to a plurality of comparison target periods corresponding to the data collection period in the past having a certain relationship with the target period, is totaled for each number code information,
From the database, the reference removal number corresponding to the reference removal number corresponding to the reference removal number belonging to the comparison period in which the attachment removal reason information indicates the first reason, and the number related to the removed meter. Read by code information, calculate the actual construction rate in a plurality of past periods by dividing by the reference number for construction rate calculation, and perform the calculation using the calculated actual construction rate, the prediction Calculate the predicted construction rate in the target period,
By multiplying the number of verification-targeted units by the predicted construction rate, calculate the number of predicted-expiration removals by number code information,
From the database, the attachment / detachment reason information reads the attachment / detachment data belonging to the comparison target period indicating the first reason, and the number code information relating to the removal meter is fixed and the number related to the attachment meter is fixed. By counting the attachment / detachment data for each piece of code information and dividing by the number of test completion reference removals for the number code information for a fixed removal meter, a specific type of meter was removed at the end of the test. Calculate the transition rate at the expiration of the test, which is the ratio indicating what kind of meter will be installed later,
The number code information related to all removal meters is obtained by multiplying the estimated number of verification completion removals by number number related to removal meters multiplied by the transition rate at the time of completion of verification according to the number code information related to attachment meters. The total number of installation completion predictions for each number code information related to the attached meter is calculated and output to the output means.   The attachment / detachment reason information is information corresponding to one reason selected from a plurality of types of reasons including a second reason corresponding to a change in the type of meter, in addition to the first reason.
The data totaling unit reads the reference installed number and the standard removed number from the database for each data totaling period, and is the number of meters according to the number code information existing at the end of the same period. Calculate the standard existing number and register it in the database,
  The attachment / detachment number predicting unit is
  The number code relating to the meter from which the type change reference removal number corresponding to the reference removal number belonging to the comparison period is indicated by the attachment removal reason information indicating the second reason from the database Read by information, read the reference existing number by number code information, calculate the type change rate in the past period by dividing the type change reference removal number by the reference existing number,
    By multiplying the type change rate by the reference existing number in the prediction target period, to calculate the type change removal predicted number by the number code information,
    From the database, the attachment / detachment reason information reads the attachment / detachment data belonging to the comparison target period indicating the second reason, and the number code information regarding the removal meter is fixed and the number related to the attachment meter is fixed. By counting the attachment / detachment data by number code information and dividing it by the type change standard removal quantity for the number code information regarding the fixed removal meter, a specific type of meter was removed at the time of type change Calculate the transition rate at the time of type change, which is the ratio indicating which type of meter will be installed later,
    The number code information related to all removal meters is obtained by multiplying the estimated number of types changed by number code related to the removal meter multiplied by the transition rate at the time of type change according to the number code information related to the mounting meter. 2. The meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the estimated number of type change attachments by number code information regarding the attachment meter is calculated and output to the output means.   The attachment / detachment reason information is information corresponding to one reason selected from a plurality of types of reasons including a third reason corresponding to a meter failure, in addition to the first reason.
The data totaling unit reads the reference installed number and the standard removed number from the database for each data totaling period, and is the number of meters according to the number code information existing at the end of the same period. Calculate the standard existing number and register it in the database,
  The attachment / detachment number predicting unit is
  The number code information relating to the meter from which the failure reference removal number corresponding to the reference removal number belonging to the comparison target period is indicated by the attachment removal reason information indicating the third reason from the database. Read separately, read the reference existing number by the number code information, calculate the failure rate in the past period by dividing the failure reference removal number by the reference existing number,
    By multiplying the reference existing number in the prediction target period by the failure rate, a failure removal prediction number by number code information is calculated,
    From the database, the attachment / detachment reason information indicates the third reason, and the attachment / detachment data belonging to the comparison target period is read, and the number code information relating to the removal meter is fixed and the number related to the attachment meter is fixed. By counting the attachment / detachment data by number code information and dividing by the failure reference removal number for the number code information for a fixed removal meter, which one after a particular type of meter is removed at the time of failure Calculate the transition rate at the time of failure, which is the ratio indicating whether a type of meter can be installed,
    Multiplying the estimated number of failure removal by number code related to the removal meter multiplied by the failure transition rate by number code information related to the mounting meter over the number code information related to all removal meters 3. The meter attachment / detachment number prediction system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein a predicted failure attachment number for each number code information relating to the attachment meter is calculated and output to the output means. Meter installation / removal for predicting the number of installed and removed meters for measuring utility usage within the forecast period by computation using a computer system equipped with input means, arithmetic processing means, storage means, and output means A number prediction method,
In the input means, when the meter is attached or removed, the code number information indicating the type of meter that is the object of attachment or removal, the construction date information relating to the date when the meter is attached or removed, the meter verification period Expiration date information on the date or month when the instrument expires, and information on the reason why the meter was installed or removed, selected from multiple types of reasons including the first reason corresponding to the expiration of the verification period Receiving attachment / detachment data including each information of attachment / detachment reason information corresponding to one reason, registering the attachment / detachment data in a database stored in the storage means,
In the arithmetic processing means,
For each predetermined data aggregation period, the attachment removal data registered in the database is extracted and aggregated for each number code information and for each attachment removal reason information, and for each number code information and for each attachment Deriving the standard number of installed units by number of removal reason information and the standard number of units removed by the number code information and by the number of removal reasons information and registering them in the database,
The attachment / detachment data is read from the database, and the date or month indicated by the expiration date information is the number of data that belongs to the prediction target period, and the date or month indicated by the expiration date information is the prediction. The reference number for construction rate calculation, which is the number of data belonging to a plurality of comparison target periods corresponding to the data collection period in the past having a certain relationship with the target period, is totaled for each number code information,
From the database, the reference removal number corresponding to the reference removal number corresponding to the reference removal number belonging to the comparison period in which the attachment removal reason information indicates the first reason, and the number related to the removed meter. Read by code information, calculate the actual construction rate in a plurality of past periods by dividing by the reference number for construction rate calculation, and perform the calculation using the calculated actual construction rate, the prediction Calculate the predicted construction rate in the target period,
By multiplying the number of the verification expiration number by the predicted construction rate, calculate the number of verification completion removal prediction by number code information,
From the database, the attachment / detachment reason information reads the attachment / detachment data belonging to the comparison target period indicating the first reason, and the number code information relating to the removal meter is fixed and the number related to the attachment meter is fixed. By counting the attachment / detachment data for each piece of code information and dividing by the number of test completion reference removals for the number code information for a fixed removal meter, a specific type of meter was removed at the end of the test. Calculate the transition rate at the expiration of the test, which is the ratio indicating what kind of meter will be installed later,
The number code information related to all removal meters is obtained by multiplying the estimated number of verification completion removals by number number related to removal meters multiplied by the transition rate at the time of completion of verification according to the number code information related to attachment meters. To calculate the estimated number of installations that will be completed for each number code related to the installation meter,
The method for predicting the number of attached / removed meters, characterized in that the output means outputs the estimated number of installations that have completed the verification.