JP4614809B2 - Energy supply system - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention is provided with a combined heat and power device for generating heat and electric power, and an operation control means for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device, the operation control means being a past load for a heat load and a power load. Data management process for managing data for a plurality of past unit periods in a state where the data is divided into unit periods in the order of passage of time, and based on past load data managed in the data management process, A predicted load calculation process for obtaining predicted load data for a thermal load and a power load within the target unit period, and an operation process for performing a planned operation of the combined heat and power unit based on the predicted load data. Energy supply system.

  The energy supply system having the above-described configuration is for supplying heat and electric energy to consumers. Conventionally, in such an energy supply system, the following configuration is conventionally used. there were.

  That is, in the data management process, the operation control unit sets one day as the unit period, and manages data for all past load data for a plurality of past days. Are stored in a state of being classified into seven groups corresponding to each day of the week, and in the predicted load calculation process, for each group corresponding to the same day of the week as the predicted date as the target unit period to be the target of planned operation There is a configuration in which the predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load on the prediction date is obtained using the past load data classified and managed and the previous load data on the day before the prediction date (for example, patents) Reference 1).

JP 2004-48838 A

  In the above-described conventional configuration, while the data management is performed for all past load data in a plurality of past days, the predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load on the predicted date is obtained. There was such a disadvantage.

In other words, in this type of energy supply system, consumers do not always live in a regular lifestyle pattern every day, but in the past days when past load data used to calculate predicted load data is measured, The house may have a different lifestyle than normal.
For example, if there are 7 guests who are originally a family of 4 because there are visitors, or if Monday is a holiday, spend the Monday in the same lifestyle pattern as a normal holiday In some cases, such as when you are out and you are away, the lifestyle pattern of the customer may be unusual and unusual.

  However, in the above conventional configuration, data management is performed for all past load data on a plurality of past days, so even the past load data on a specific day as described above can be used as it is. Therefore, in the predicted load calculation process, past load data that is not appropriate for obtaining predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load is included, and the obtained predicted load data is the actual energy in the consumer. There is a risk that it may become inappropriate, significantly different from the consumption situation.

  An object of the present invention is to provide an energy supply system capable of obtaining predicted load data for a thermal load and a power load in a state corresponding as much as possible to an actual energy consumption state.

An energy supply system according to the present invention is provided with a cogeneration device that generates heat and electric power together, and an operation control unit that controls the operation of the cogeneration device, and the operation control unit includes a heat load and electric power. Based on the past load data managed in the data management process, the data management process for managing the past load data for the load for a plurality of past unit periods in a state in which the unit periods are sorted in the order of time passage, Predictive load calculation processing for obtaining predicted load data for a thermal load and an electric power load within a target unit period that is a target of planned operation, and an operation processing for planned operation of the combined heat and power supply apparatus based on the predicted load data are executed. Which is configured as follows:
The first characteristic configuration is that the usage status related data for collecting the actual usage status related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of the heat usage status and the power usage status by the customer for each of the plurality of past unit periods. Data collection means are provided,
For the actual usage status related data for each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection means, the actual usage status related data is actually used for a plurality of other past unit periods. It is configured to execute a usage status related data determination process that determines whether or not it is unique compared to the status related data,
In the predicted load calculation process, among the plurality of past unit periods, past loads in a plurality of unit periods excluding a unit period in which the actual use state related data is determined to be unique in the use state related data determination process Configured to determine the predicted load data based on the data ;
A bath hot water filling means for bathing the bathtub with hot water stored in a hot water storage device for storing hot water with heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device;
The usage status related data collecting means is configured to collect bath hot water filling time as the actual usage status related data,
In the usage status related data determination process, the operation control unit is configured to set the bath hot water time of each of the past plurality of unit periods to the bath hot water time of other past unit periods. It is in the point which is comprised so that it may determine whether it is peculiar compared with an average value .

  According to the first characteristic configuration, the operation control means executes the usage status related data determination process, and the actual usage status related data for each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection means. It is determined whether or not the actual usage status related data is unique as compared with the actual usage status related data of a plurality of other past unit periods. That is, it is determined whether or not the consumer life pattern is a unit period that is a peculiar life pattern different from the normal one.

  Then, the operation control means, in the predicted load calculation process, based on the past load data in the plurality of unit periods excluding the unit period determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods, Since the predicted heat load is obtained, the past load data in the unit period in which the life pattern of the consumer as described above is a peculiar life pattern different from normal is excluded from the target for obtaining the predicted load data. Thus, the predicted load data can be appropriately obtained in a state that does not greatly differ from the actual energy consumption situation in the consumer.

Accordingly, it has become possible to provide an energy supply system capable of obtaining predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load in a state corresponding as much as possible to the actual energy consumption state.
Further, according to the first characteristic configuration, the operation control means, for each of the plurality of unit bath periods in the past, has an average of the bath bathing times of the other plurality of unit periods in the past. It is determined whether or not it is unique by comparing with the value.
If the hot water bathing time is far from the average value, for example, in the case of a normal life pattern, the hot water bathing time is around 6:00 pm compared to around 12:00 pm If it is, it is a unique life pattern that is different from the normal life pattern. By excluding the past load data in such a unit period, the predicted load data is significantly different from the actual energy consumption situation in the consumer. It can be obtained appropriately without any problems.

A second characteristic configuration of the present invention is provided with a combined heat and power device that generates heat and electric power, and an operation control unit that controls the operation of the combined heat and power device. The past load data for the load and the power load is managed for a plurality of past unit periods in a state where the past load data is divided into unit periods in the order of passage of time, and the past load data managed by the data management process Based on a predicted load calculation process for obtaining predicted load data for a thermal load and a power load within a target unit period that is a target of the planned operation, and an operation process for performing a planned operation of the combined heat and power unit based on the predicted load data An energy supply system configured to perform
For each of the past plurality of unit periods, usage status related data collecting means for collecting actual usage status related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of heat usage status and power usage status by a consumer is provided,
For the actual usage status related data for each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection means, the actual usage status related data is actually used for a plurality of other past unit periods. It is configured to execute a usage status related data determination process that determines whether or not it is unique compared to the status related data,
In the predicted load calculation process, among the plurality of past unit periods, past loads in a plurality of unit periods excluding a unit period in which the actual use state related data is determined to be unique in the use state related data determination process Configured to determine the predicted load data based on the data;
A bath hot water filling means for bathing the bathtub with hot water stored in a hot water storage device for storing hot water with heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device;
The usage status related data collection means is configured to collect the number of hot water bathing as the actual usage status related data,
In the usage status related data determination process, the operation control means is configured such that the number of times of bath hot water for each of the plurality of past unit periods is the number of times of bath hot water for the other past unit periods. It is in the point which is comprised so that it may determine whether it is peculiar compared with an average value .

According to the second feature configuration, the operation control means executes the usage status related data determination process, and the actual usage status related data for each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection means. It is determined whether or not the actual usage status related data is unique as compared with the actual usage status related data of a plurality of other past unit periods. That is, it is determined whether or not the consumer life pattern is a unit period that is a peculiar life pattern different from the normal one.
Then, the operation control means, in the predicted load calculation process, based on the past load data in the plurality of unit periods excluding the unit period determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods, Since the predicted heat load is obtained, the past load data in the unit period in which the life pattern of the consumer as described above is a peculiar life pattern different from normal is excluded from the target for obtaining the predicted load data. Thus, the predicted load data can be appropriately obtained in a state that does not greatly differ from the actual energy consumption situation in the consumer.
Accordingly, it has become possible to provide an energy supply system capable of obtaining predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load in a state corresponding as much as possible to the actual energy consumption state.
Further, according to the second feature configuration, the operation control means is configured such that the number of bath hot water fillings for each of a plurality of past unit periods is an average of the number of bath hot water fillings for a plurality of other past unit periods. It is determined whether or not it is unique by comparing with the value.
In the case where the number of bath hot water bathing per unit period is far from the average value, for example, the average value of the bath hot water bathing times for a plurality of unit periods is one hot water bathing within the unit period (1 day). This is a unique life pattern that is different from the normal life pattern if the number of times of hot water filling is 2 to 3 times within the unit period. By excluding the past load data, it is possible to appropriately obtain the predicted load data in a state that does not greatly differ from the actual energy consumption situation in the consumer.

The third characteristic configuration of the present invention is provided with a cogeneration device that generates heat and electric power together, and an operation control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device,
A data management process in which the operation control means manages past load data for the measured thermal load and electric power load for a plurality of unit periods in the past in a state in which each unit period is sorted in the order of passage of time, and the data management Based on the past load data managed in the process, based on the predicted load calculation process for obtaining the predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load in the target unit period that is the target of the planned operation, and the predicted load data An energy supply system configured to execute an operation process for planned operation of the cogeneration device,
For each of the past plurality of unit periods, usage status related data collecting means for collecting actual usage status related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of heat usage status and power usage status by a consumer is provided,
The operation control means is
For the actual usage status related data of each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection means, the actual usage status related data is compared with the actual usage status related data of the other past plurality of unit periods. Is configured to execute usage-related data determination processing for determining whether or not it is unique,
In the predicted load calculation process, among the plurality of past unit periods, past loads in a plurality of unit periods excluding a unit period in which the actual use state related data is determined to be unique in the use state related data determination process Configured to determine the predicted load data based on the data;
The usage status related data collecting means is configured to collect a power load of the past load data as the actual usage status related data,
The operation control means, in the usage status related data determination process, for each of the plurality of past unit periods, to calculate the absolute value of the difference by comparing the power load for each set time in chronological order, It is configured to calculate the actual integrated value of the calculated absolute value, and whether the calculated actual integrated value is unique compared to the average value of the actual integrated values for other past unit periods It is in the point comprised so that it may determine .

According to the third feature configuration, the operation control means executes the usage status related data determination process, and the actual usage status related data for each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection means. It is determined whether or not the actual usage status related data is unique as compared with the actual usage status related data of a plurality of other past unit periods. That is, it is determined whether or not the consumer life pattern is a unit period that is a peculiar life pattern different from the normal one.
Then, the operation control means, in the predicted load calculation process, based on the past load data in the plurality of unit periods excluding the unit period determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods, Since the predicted heat load is obtained, the past load data in the unit period in which the life pattern of the consumer as described above is a peculiar life pattern different from normal is excluded from the target for obtaining the predicted load data. Thus, the predicted load data can be appropriately obtained in a state that does not greatly differ from the actual energy consumption situation in the consumer.
Accordingly, it has become possible to provide an energy supply system capable of obtaining predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load in a state corresponding as much as possible to the actual energy consumption state.
Further, according to the third feature configuration, the operation control means calculates the absolute value of the difference by comparing the power load for each set time in a time series before and after each of a plurality of past unit periods. The actual integrated value of the absolute value obtained is obtained, and the obtained actual integrated value is compared with the average value of the actual integrated values for a plurality of other past unit periods to determine whether or not it is unique. .
If the state of the time-series change for each set time of the power load is different from the average value, it is a unique life pattern different from the normal life pattern, so the past load data in such a unit period By excluding “”, it is possible to appropriately obtain the predicted load data in a state that does not greatly differ from the actual energy consumption situation in the consumer.

In addition to any of the first feature configuration to the third feature configuration, the fourth feature configuration of the present invention,
The usage status related data collecting means is configured to collect a power load of the past load data as the actual usage status related data,
In the usage status related data determination process, the operation control unit compares the power load of each of the past plurality of unit periods with an average value of the power loads of other past unit periods. It is in the point comprised so that it may determine whether it is peculiar.

  According to the fourth characteristic configuration, the operation control means is unique for the power load of each of the past plurality of unit periods as compared with the average value of the power loads of the other past unit periods. It is determined whether or not.

  When the power load is greatly different from the average value, for example, when the power load is greatly different, such as when the power load is about half of the average value or more than twice, Because it is a peculiar life pattern that is different from the daily life pattern, by excluding the past load data in such a unit period, the predicted load data is appropriate in a state that does not greatly differ from the actual energy consumption situation in the consumer. Can be requested.

In addition to any of the first feature configuration to the fourth feature configuration, the fifth feature configuration of the present invention includes:
Water supply or hot water supply device for supplying hot water obtained using hot water stored in water or hot water storage device that stores hot water by heat generated in the combined heat and power supply device,
For the actual supply amount of at least one of the water and the hot water in each of the plurality of past unit periods, the usage status related data collection means is an average of the actual supply amounts of other past unit periods. The point is that it is configured to determine whether or not it is singular compared to the value.

According to the fifth characteristic configuration, the operation control means has the actual supply amount of at least one actual supply amount of each of the past plurality of unit periods and the actual supply amount of the other plurality of past unit periods. It is judged whether it is peculiar compared with the average value of quantity.

  That is, when the actual supply amount of at least one of water and warm water within the unit period is far from the average value, for example, the actual supply amount is about half of the actual supply amount in a normal life pattern, or 2 When it is significantly different, such as more than twice, it is a unique life pattern that is different from the normal life pattern, so by excluding the past load data in such a unit period, the predicted load data is the actual energy in the consumer. It can be obtained appropriately in a state that does not greatly differ from the consumption situation.

In addition to any of the first to fifth feature configurations, the sixth feature configuration of the present invention includes:
The operation control means is
In the usage status related data determination process, based on past load data in a plurality of unit periods excluding a unit period in which the actual usage status data is determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods, The configuration is such that the past load data is obtained as a substitute for the past load data in the unit period in which the actual usage status data is determined to be unique.

According to the sixth feature configuration, the operation control means is peculiar based on past load data in a plurality of unit periods excluding a unit period determined to be peculiar among a plurality of past unit periods. Since the past load data is obtained as a substitute for the past load data in the determined unit period, the predicted load data can be obtained in a state reflecting the past actual energy consumption as much as possible. It can be obtained appropriately in a state that does not differ greatly from the actual energy consumption situation at home.

According to a seventh feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to the sixth feature configuration, the operation control means in the unit period determined to be unique with the unit period as one day in the use state-related data determination process. Instead of the past load data, the average value of the past load data for seven days before the unit period determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods is substituted. It is in.

According to the seventh feature configuration, the past load data of the unit period of 7 days before the unit period determined to be unique as a substitute for the past load data of the day (unit period) determined to be specific The average value is used. In other words, in ordinary households, the daily life pattern often changes periodically in units of one week, and the consumption of heat and power gradually increases with the passage of time such as seasonal changes. Therefore, by using the average value of the past load data of the unit period of the previous seven days , the predicted load data can be obtained in a state as close as possible to the actual energy consumption state. It can be obtained appropriately in a state that does not greatly differ from the actual energy consumption situation in the consumer.

According to an eighth feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to any one of the first feature configuration to the fifth feature configuration , the operation control unit is unique with the unit period as one day in the use state related data determination process. Instead of the past load data in the unit period determined to be present, the past load data on the day before the unit period determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods is substituted. In the point.

According to the eighth characteristic configuration, the past load data of the day before the date determined to be peculiar is used as a substitute for the past load data of the day (unit period) determined to be peculiar. In other words, in daily life, daily life patterns rarely change so much, but the consumption of heat and electricity changes gradually over time, such as seasonal changes, and the past day's past The load data is considered to be close to the energy consumption status of the target unit period that is the target of the predicted load data. Therefore, by substituting the previous load data of the previous day, the predicted load data can be obtained in a state as close as possible to the actual energy consumption status, and the predicted load data is not significantly different from the actual energy consumption status at the consumer. It can be determined appropriately according to the condition.

According to a ninth feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to any one of the first feature configuration to the fifth feature configuration , the operation control unit is unique with the unit period as one day in the use state related data determination process. Instead of the past load data in the unit period determined to be, the past load data in the past 7 days before the unit period determined to be unique among the plurality of unit periods is substituted. There is in point.

According to the ninth feature configuration, the past load data of 7 days before the date determined to be peculiar is used as a substitute for the past load data of the day (unit period) determined to be peculiar. . That is, in ordinary households, the daily life pattern often changes periodically in units of one week, so the past load data seven days ago is the energy consumption of the target unit period that is the target of the predicted load data. It is considered close to the situation. Therefore, by substituting the past load data of 7 days ago , the predicted load data can be obtained in a state as close as possible to the actual energy consumption status, and the predicted load data is greatly different from the actual energy consumption status in the consumer. It can be obtained appropriately in the absence.

Hereinafter, an embodiment of a cogeneration system as an example of an energy supply system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
As shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, this cogeneration system recovers heat output from the combined heat and power supply device 1 that generates electric power and heat, and the combined heat and power supply device 1 with cooling water. Is used to store hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 and supply a heating medium to the heating terminal 3, and an operation control unit 5 as operation control means for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power supply device 1 and hot water storage unit 4. It is composed of In the present embodiment, the cogeneration apparatus 1 includes a generator 1g and a gas engine 1e that drives the generator 1g.

Gas fuel is supplied to the gas engine 1e at a set flow rate so that the combined heat and power supply device 1 is rated. In the rated operation, the generated power of the combined heat and power supply device 1 is rated generated power. (For example, 1 kW) is substantially constant.
A grid interconnection inverter 6 is provided on the output side of the generator 1g, and the inverter 6 sets the output power of the generator 1g to the same voltage and the same frequency as the power supplied from the commercial system 7. It is configured.
The commercial system 7 is, for example, a single-phase three-wire system 100/200 V, and is electrically connected to a power load 9 such as a television, a refrigerator, or a washing machine via a commercial power supply line 8.
Further, the inverter 6 is electrically connected to the commercial power supply line 8 via the cogeneration supply line 10, and the generated power from the combined heat and power supply device 1 is supplied to the power load 9 via the inverter 6 and the cogeneration supply line 10. It is comprised so that it may be supplied to.

The commercial power supply line 8 is provided with a commercial power measuring unit P1 that measures the commercial power supplied through the commercial power supply line 8, and the cogeneration supply line 10 includes A generated power measuring unit P2 for measuring generated power is provided, and the commercial power measuring unit P1 is configured to detect whether or not a reverse power flow occurs in the current flowing through the commercial power supply line 8. .
And the electric power supplied from the cogeneration apparatus 1 to the commercial power supply line 8 is controlled by the inverter 6 so that the reverse power flow does not occur, and the surplus power of the generated power is recovered by replacing the surplus power with heat. It is configured to be supplied to the electric heater 12.

  The electric heater 12 is composed of a plurality of electric heaters, and is provided so as to heat the cooling water of the cogeneration device 1 that flows through the cooling water circulation path 13 by the operation of the cooling water circulation pump 15. ON / OFF is switched by the connected operation switch 14. The operation switch 14 is configured to adjust the power consumption of the electric heater 12 according to the amount of surplus power so that the power consumption of the electric heater 12 increases as the amount of surplus power increases. Yes.

  The hot water storage unit 4 passes through a hot water storage tank 2 as a hot water storage device for storing hot water in a state where temperature stratification is formed, a hot water circulation pump 17 for circulating hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 through the hot water circulation path 16, and a heat source circulation path 20. Heat source circulation pump 21 that circulates hot water for heat source, heat medium circulation pump 23 that circulates the heat medium to the heating terminal 3 through the heat medium circulation path 22, and heat exchange for hot water storage that heats the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16. 24, heat source heat exchanger 25 for heating hot water for heat source flowing through heat source circulation path 20, heat exchanger for heat medium heating for heating heat medium flowing through heat medium circulation path 22, and hot water storage tank 2 is provided with an auxiliary heater M that heats hot water that is taken out from the inside 2 and flows through the hot water supply passage 33 and hot water for the heat source that flows through the heat source circulation passage 20.

  The hot water circulation path 16 is branched and connected so that a part thereof is in parallel, a three-way valve 18 is provided at the connection location, and a radiator 19 is provided in the branched flow path. Yes. By switching the three-way valve 18, the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to pass through the radiator 19, and the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to bypass the radiator 19. It is comprised so that it may switch to a state.

  The hot water supply path 33 is connected to the hot water storage tank 2 via the hot water circulation path 16, and hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 is supplied to a hot water supply apparatus 34 such as a bathtub, a hot water tap, and a shower through the hot water supply path 33. It is like that. Therefore, in this embodiment, the hot water supply device 34 includes bath hot water filling means for hot water filling the bathtub using hot water stored in the hot water storage unit 4.

  The heat source circulation path 20 is provided so as to form a circulation path in a state where a part of the hot water supply path 33 is shared, and the auxiliary heater M is for auxiliary heating provided in a shared portion with the heat source circulation path 20. The heat exchanger 29 includes a burner 28 that heats the auxiliary heating heat exchanger 29, a fan 27 that supplies combustion air to the burner 28, and the like.

  In the hot water storage heat exchanger 24, hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16 is heated by passing the cooling water of the cooling water circulation path 13 that has recovered the heat output from the cogeneration apparatus 1. It is configured. In the heat source heat exchanger 25, the heat source hot water flowing through the heat source circulation path 20 is made to flow through the cooling water of the cooling water circulation path 13 that has recovered the heat output from the cogeneration apparatus 1. It is configured to be heated. Further, the heat source circulation path 20 is provided with a heat source intermittent valve 40 for intermittently flowing the heat source hot water. In the heat exchanger for heat medium heating 26, the heat medium flowing through the heat medium circulation path 22 is passed by flowing hot water for the heat source heated by the heat exchanger for heat source 25 or the auxiliary heater M. It is configured to be heated. The heating terminal 3 includes a floor heating device, a bathroom heating device, and the like.

The cooling water circulation path 13 is branched into a hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side and a heat source heat exchanger 25 side, and the flow rate of the cooling water to be passed to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side and the heat source use are branched at the branch points. A diversion valve 30 is provided that adjusts the ratio of the flow rate of the cooling water that flows to the heat exchanger 25 side.
The diverter valve 30 allows the entire amount of cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 to flow to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side, or allows the entire amount of cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 to flow to the heat source heat exchanger 25 side. It is comprised so that it can also be made.

  Further, a hot water supply heat load measuring means 31 for measuring the hot water supply heat load when supplying hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is provided, and a heating heat load measuring means 32 for measuring the heating heat load at the heating terminal 3 is also provided. ing. As described above, the hot water supply heat load measuring means 31 measures the hot water supply heat load in the currant or the like constituting the hot water supply apparatus 33 or the hot water supply heat load in the bath hot water filling means constituting the hot water supply apparatus 33. That is, in this embodiment, there are a heating heat load and a hot water supply heat load as heat loads.

  The operation control unit 5 includes a microcomputer, and is configured to execute various operation controls as will be described later. That is, the operation control unit 5 controls the operation of the combined heat and power supply device 1 and the operating state of the cooling water circulation pump 15 in a state where the cooling water circulation pump 15 is operated during the operation of the combined heat and power supply device 1. By controlling the operating states of the heat source circulation pump 21 and the heat medium circulation pump 23, the hot water storage operation for storing hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 or the heating terminal 3 is supplied with the heat medium to heat the heating target area. It is comprised so that heating operation may be performed. Further, as shown in FIG. 2, a remote control operation unit 35 for instructing operation to the operation control unit 5 is provided. The remote control operation unit 35 includes a bath hot water switch 36 for instructing hot water filling to the bathtub and a bath hot water switch 36. A bath reservation switch 37 and the like for instructing reservation operation are provided.

Next, description will be made on operations of the hot water storage operation and the heat medium supply operation by the operation control unit 5.
The hot water storage operation is performed by operating the cooling water circulation pump 15 during operation of the combined heat and power supply device 1, and hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16 using the cooling water flowing through the cooling water circulation path 13 in the hot water storage heat exchanger 24. Is carried out in a state where it can be heated.
Then, the three-way valve 18 is switched to a state in which hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to bypass the radiator 19, and the hot water circulation pump 17 is operated to supply hot water from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2. 16, the hot water is heated by passing through a hot water storage heat exchanger 24, and then returned to the upper part of the hot water storage tank 2 so as to be stored in the hot water storage tank 2.

  Although not shown in the drawings, a hot water storage amount detecting means for detecting the hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 2 is provided, and when the hot water storage amount detecting means detects that the hot water storage amount in the hot water storage tank 2 is full. The three-way valve 18 is switched to a state in which hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to pass through the radiator 19, and the radiator 19 is operated so that the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is After the heat radiation, the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 is passed through and heated.

  In the heating operation, when the start of the heating operation is instructed from a remote control operation unit or the like on the heating terminal 3 side (not shown), the heat source circulation pump 21 and the heat medium circulation pump 23 are in a state where the heat source intermittent valve 40 is opened. To heat the hot water for the heat source in at least one of the heat exchanger 25 for the heat source and the heat exchanger 29 for the auxiliary heating, and the heated hot water for the heat source is converted into the heat exchanger 26 for the heat medium. The heating medium is circulated and supplied to the heating terminal 3 by being circulated in a passing state and heated by the hot water for the heat source in the heat exchanger for heat medium heating 26.

  When the explanation of heating of the hot water for the heat source is added, when the combined heat and power supply device 1 is in operation, the diverter valve 30 is adjusted so that the cooling water flows to the heat source heat exchanger 25 side. By operating the cooling water circulation pump 15, the heat source heat exchanger 25 is configured to heat the hot water for the heat source. In addition, when the current heating heat load required by the heating terminal 3 cannot be covered only with the cooling water from the combined heat and power supply device 1 or when the combined heat and power supply device 1 is not in operation, the auxiliary heater M is heated. By operating, the auxiliary heating heat exchanger 29 is configured to heat the hot water for the heat source.

  When the hot water storage operation and the heating operation are performed simultaneously during the operation of the combined heat and power supply device 1, the operation control unit 5 uses the current dividing heat valve 30 based on the current heating heat load requested by the heating terminal 3. It is configured to adjust the ratio between the flow rate of the cooling water to be passed to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side and the flow rate of the cooling water to be passed to the heat source heat exchanger 25 side.

Next, description is added about control of the driving | operation of the cogeneration apparatus 1 by the operation control part 5. FIG.
The operation control unit 5 is a data management process for managing past load data for a thermal load and an electric load for a plurality of unit periods in the past in a state in which the unit periods are divided in order of passage of time. Predictive load calculation processing for obtaining predicted load data for a thermal load and an electric power load within a target unit period that is a target of planned operation based on past load data managed by the system, and combined heat and power based on the predicted load data It is comprised so that the driving | operation process which carries out the planned driving | operation of the apparatus 1 may be performed. Further, the operation process specifically includes an energy-saving degree reference value calculation process for obtaining an energy-saving degree reference value as a reference for determining whether or not to operate the cogeneration apparatus 1 from the predicted load data, and its energy-saving degree reference value. It is configured to perform an operation availability determination process for determining whether or not the cogeneration apparatus 1 can be operated depending on whether or not the actual energy saving level at the present time is higher than the energy saving level reference value obtained by the calculation process. .

  In this cogeneration system, usage status related data collection means for collecting actual usage status related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of heat usage status and power usage status by the customer is provided, and operation control is provided. For the actual usage status related data for each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection unit, the unit 5 uses the actual usage status related data for other past unit periods. It is comprised so that the use condition related data determination process which determines whether it is peculiar compared with may be performed.

  Further, in the usage status-related data determination process, actual usage is based on past load data in a plurality of unit periods excluding the unit period in which the actual usage status data is determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods. It is configured to obtain past load data as a substitute for past load data in a unit period in which the situation data is determined to be unique.

  The usage status related data collection means includes a commercial power measurement unit P1, a generated power measurement unit P2, a hot water supply thermal load measurement unit 31, a heating thermal load measurement unit 32, a bath hot water switch 36 of the remote control operation unit 35, and a bath reservation switch 37. Consists of.

Hereinafter, a specific control processing configuration of the operation control unit 5 will be described.
The operation control unit 5 is configured to manage one day as the unit period, and as shown in FIG. 6, the day before the prediction date that is the target of the load prediction that is the target unit period that is the target of the planned operation ends. For example, at midnight, for example, the usage state related data determination process, the data management process, and the predicted load calculation process are executed (steps 1 to 4).

In the usage status related data determination process, as shown in FIG. 7, a determination process is performed to determine whether or not the usage status related data on the previous day is unique (step 21).
In other words, when the power load measuring unit 11 that measures the usage state related data directly related to the power usage state by the consumer is used as the above-described usage state related data collecting unit, the time series power load of the previous day is used. In addition, it is possible to collect information on the time variation of the power load as described later, that is, the actual power load data for each set time in the power load device 9 is compared before and after in time series, and the absolute value of the difference is obtained. It is possible to collect information on the actual integrated value of the calculated absolute value up to the present time.

  Moreover, when the hot water supply thermal load measuring means 31 that measures the usage status related data directly related to the heat usage status by the consumer is used as the usage status related data collecting means, when the customer performs bathing in the bathtub, It is possible to collect information on the required hot water supply heat load. Similarly, when the heating heat load measuring means 32 for measuring the use state related data directly related to the heat use state by the consumer is used as the use state related data collecting means, the heating heat consumed by the consumer at the heating terminal 3 is used. Information on load amount can be collected.

  Still further, when the hot water supply heat load measuring means 31 is used as the usage status related data collection means, the customer uses the hot water supply device 33 as usage status related data indirectly related to the heat usage status by the consumer. Information on the amount of water consumed can be collected. For example, since water may be used without using hot water (that is, without consuming heat) in the hot water supply device 33 in summer, the water measured by the hot water supply thermal load measuring means 31 and The actual supply of hot water is regarded as usage-related data indirectly related to heat usage by consumers. That is, the hot water supply device 33 corresponds to the “water supply and hot water supply device” of the present invention.

  Furthermore, when using the bath hot water switch 35 of the remote control operation unit 34 operated by the consumer or the reservation switch 36 for reserving the bath hot water time as the usage status related data collecting means, the bath hot water switch 35 is used. The on-operation time can be collected as bath hot water time information, and the bath hot water reserved time reserved by the reservation switch 36 can be collected as bath hot water time information. In addition, it is possible to collect information on the number of times of bath hot water performed based on the ON operation of the bath hot water switch 35 and the reservation operation performed by the reservation switch 36.

  As described above, the actual usage status-related data that can be collected by the usage status-related data collection means includes the power load, the amount of time fluctuation of the power load, the bath hot water filling time, the number of hot water bath fillings, the actual supply amount of water and hot water. and so on.

  Therefore, the operation control unit 5 determines, as the determination process, the actual usage status related data collected by the usage status related data collecting means on the previous day, that the actual usage status related data is related to the actual usage status of a plurality of other past days. It is determined whether or not it is unique compared to the data.

  Here, when the description is added to the actual usage status related data of a plurality of other past days, the usage status related data determination process is repeatedly executed every time one day as a unit period ends. Data related to actual use status of each of a plurality of past days is also collected and stored. As will be described later, in the data management process, the past load data of the past power load and heat load is managed and stored. However, the operation control unit 5 determines that the past load data is the past before the predicted date. Three weeks (21 days) are stored, and the actual usage-related data is also stored for the past three weeks before the predicted date.

Next, the determination process will be described.
First, regarding the power load of the previous day as the actual usage status related data, whether or not the total amount for one day is unique compared with the average value of the total amount for one day of the power loads for other past days It is comprised so that it may determine. For example, when the total amount of the power load for the previous day is 50% or less or 150% or more of the average value of the total amount of a plurality of days, it is determined that the data is unique.

  In addition, regarding the power load of the previous day as the actual usage status related data, the power load for each set time is compared before and after in time series, the absolute value of the difference is calculated, and the actual integrated value of the calculated absolute value is obtained. It is comprised so that it may be determined whether it is peculiar by comparing the calculated | required actual integrated value with the average value of the actual integrated value about the other several past days. For example, the average value of the past hourly power load of the consumer, the absolute value of the difference before and after the hourly power load, and the integrated value of the absolute value up to that time are as follows: It becomes like Table 1.

  As shown in Table 1, if the consumer uses power in a normal life pattern, the hourly power load repeatedly fluctuates, so the integrated value of the absolute value of the difference increases uniformly. However, when the customer is absent, the hourly power load does not fluctuate, so that the absolute value of the difference is zero as in the case of 11:00 to 17:00 in Table 1 above. The integrated value of the absolute value of the difference is also zero. Therefore, regarding the integrated value of the absolute value of the difference on the previous day, when the integrated value is 50% or less or 150% or more of the average value of the integrated values of a plurality of days, it is determined that the data is unique. .

  Furthermore, regarding the bath filling time of the previous day as the actual usage-related data, whether or not the bath filling time is peculiar compared with the average value of the bath filling times of other past days. It is configured to determine. For example, the bath bathing time of the previous day (the time when the bath bathing switch 35 is turned on or the bath bathing reservation time by the reservation switch 36) is, for example, four hours from the average value of the bath bathing times of a plurality of past days. If it is more than the above, it is determined that the data is unique.

  Furthermore, regarding the number of hot water bathing on the previous day as actual usage-related data, whether the hot water bathing frequency of the previous day is peculiar or not compared with the average value of the hot water bathing times of other past days. It is configured to determine. For example, if the number of hot water bathing on the previous day is more than the upper threshold value that is 0.5 times or more higher than the average value of the hot water bathing times for a plurality of days in the past, or less than 0.5 times lower than the average value If it is less than the side threshold, it is determined that the data is unique.

  Furthermore, the actual supply amount of at least one of water and hot water from the hot water supply device 33 on the previous day as the actual use status related data is compared with the average value of the actual supply amounts of other past days. It is configured to determine whether or not it is unique. For example, when the actual supply amount on the previous day is 50% or less or 150% or more of the average value of the actual supply amounts on a plurality of days, it is determined that the data is unique.

  When it is determined that the actual usage status related data on the day before the prediction date is unique by the determination process as described above, the load data for the day is calculated from the past load data for calculating the predicted load data on the prediction date. Delete and execute a data substitution process that replaces the past load data on the day before that day (the day before the forecast date) as a substitute of the past load data on the previous day among the past days other than that day (step) 22, 23, 24).

Next, the data management process will be described.
The operation control unit 5 includes a plurality of past days in a state in which past load data for each unit time is divided into unit periods in the order of passage of time with respect to the electric power load, the hot water supply heat load, and the heating heat load. The three weeks are sequentially measured and stored in a memory (not shown). In the data management process, such past load data is managed in a state in which a plurality of days are associated with the day of the week. Yes.

  As described above, the past load data is composed of three types of load data, that is, power load data, hot water supply heat load data, and heating heat load data, and includes a commercial power measurement unit P1, a generated power measurement unit P2, and a hot water supply heat load measurement unit 31. , And the heating heat load measuring means 32 respectively.

  Incidentally, the power load data is obtained from the sum of the power measured by the commercial power measuring unit P1 and the power generation output of the cogeneration device 1 measured by the generated power measuring unit P2, and is specific to the power load of the electric heater 14 and the cogeneration system. Subtracting the power load of the auxiliary equipment. The unique auxiliary machine is a device or machine that is uniquely and supplementarily provided in the cogeneration system, and corresponds to the cooling water circulation pump 15 and the hot water circulation pump 17. The hot water supply heat load data is load data including both general hot water supplied to the hot water tap and bath hot water supplied to the bathtub.

  Based on the actual usage situation, the electric power load data, the hot water supply heat load data, and the heating heat load data are respectively obtained by the commercial power measurement unit P1, the generated power measurement unit P2, the hot water supply thermal load measurement unit 31, and the heating heat load measurement unit 32. Separately measured and stored. The time-series past load data for one day includes 24 pieces of power load data per unit time, 24 pieces of hot water supply heat load data per unit time, and one unit of 24 hours. It consists of 24 pieces of heating heat load data per hour.

  When one day of time-series actual load data is stored for one week, the time-series past load data and time-series actual load data managed in groups are grouped for each day of the week. Are added at a predetermined ratio to obtain past load data for each new time-series group and update the stored contents.

Specifically, taking Sunday as an example, as shown in FIG. 3, time-series past load data D1m corresponding to Sunday among time-series past load data and time-series actual load data Among them, new time-series past load data D1 (m + 1) corresponding to Sunday is obtained from the time-series actual load data A1 corresponding to Sunday by the following [Equation 1], and the obtained time-series Historical past load data D1 (m + 1) is stored.
In the following [Equation 1], D1m is time-series past load data corresponding to Sunday, A1 is time-series actual load data corresponding to Sunday, and K is a constant of 0.75. D1 (m + 1) is new time-series past load data.
However, as described above, when it is determined that the usage status related data determination process is unique, it is deleted from the past load data, so that day's data is used for calculating the predicted load. Not.

[Equation 1]
D1 (m + 1) = (D1m × K) + {A1 × (1-K)}

The predicted load calculation process will be further described. In the predicted load calculation process, how much power load, hot water supply heat load, and heating heat load is predicted for one day in which time zone of the predicted date. The system is configured to obtain sequential predicted load data.
That is, by adding the past load data corresponding to the forecast day of the seven groups of past load data for each day of the week and the actual load data of the previous day in a predetermined ratio, how much in what time zone It is configured to obtain time-series predicted load data for one day on the day as to whether an electric power load, a hot water supply heat load, and a heating heat load are predicted.

  However, if it is determined that the actual usage status related data of the previous day is peculiar in the usage status related data determination process, the previous load data of the previous day will be deleted. The past load data of two days before will be used instead.

  Specifically, the case of obtaining the predicted load data for one day on Monday will be described as an example. As shown in FIG. 3, seven past load data D1m to D7m for each day of the week and seven actual load data A1 for each day of the week are shown. ~ A7 are stored, so the past load data D2m corresponding to Monday and the actual load data A1 corresponding to Sunday of the previous day are used to calculate the time series for one day on Monday by the following [Equation 2]. Predictive load data B is obtained.

As shown in FIG. 4, the predicted load data B for one day includes time-series predicted power load data for one day, time-series predicted hot water supply heat load data for one day, and data for one day. It consists of time-series predicted heating heat load data, (a) in FIG. 4 shows the time-series predicted power load for one day, and (b) in FIG. 4 is the time series for one day. 4 shows a typical predicted hot water supply heat load, and (c) in FIG. 4 shows a time-series predicted heating heat load for one day.
In the following [Equation 2], D2m is past load data corresponding to Monday, A1 is actual load data corresponding to Sunday, Q is a constant of 0.25, and B is a predicted load. Data.

[Equation 2]
B = (D2m × Q) + {A1 × (1-Q)}

  Therefore, in the predicted load calculation process, the past load data on a plurality of days excluding the day on which the actual use situation related data is determined to be unique in the use situation related data determination process among the plurality of past days. Based on this, the predicted load data is obtained.

  Whether the operation control unit 5 operates the combined heat and power supply device 1 from the predicted load data every time one hour as a unit time elapses in a state where the predicted load data of the predicted date is obtained as described above. Whether or not the actual energy saving level is higher than the energy saving level reference value obtained in the energy saving level reference value calculation process. Thus, an operation availability determination process is performed to determine whether the operation of the combined heat and power supply device 1 is possible (steps 5 to 9).

  In the energy saving standard value calculation process, when the combined heat and power supply device 1 is operated so as to cover the required hot water storage amount from the present time to the reference value time ahead using the predicted hot water supply thermal load data The energy-saving standard value that can realize energy saving by operating the combined heat and power supply apparatus 1 is obtained.

  For example, when the unit time is set to 1 hour and the reference value time is set to 12 hours, first, from the predicted power load, predicted hot water supply heat load, and predicted heating heat load based on the predicted load data, In addition, the predicted energy saving degree when the combined heat and power supply apparatus 1 is operated is obtained for 12 hours up to 12 hours ahead every hour, and hot water can be stored in the hot water storage tank 2 when the combined heat and power supply apparatus 1 is operated. The predicted amount of stored hot water is determined for 12 pieces every hour up to 12 hours ahead.

  Energy saving level P = {(EK1 + EK2 + EK3) / necessary energy of cogeneration apparatus 1} × 100 (Equation 5)

However, EK1 is a function with the effective power generation output E1 as a variable, EK2 is a function with E2 as a variable, EK3 is a function with E3 as a variable,
EK1 = Equivalent power generation output E1 power plant primary energy equivalent value = f1 (Effective power generation output E1, required energy at the power plant)
EK2 = energy conversion value in conventional water heater of effective heating heat output E2 = f2 (effective heating heat output E2, burner efficiency (during heating))
EK3 = Equivalent hot water heat output E3 energy conversion value in conventional water heater = f3 (effective hot water heat output E3, burner efficiency (during hot water supply))
Necessary energy of the combined heat and power unit 1: 5.5 kW (the city gas consumption when the combined heat and power unit 1 is operated for 1 hour is 0.433 m ³ )
Unit power generation required energy: 2.8kW
Burner efficiency (heating): 0.8
Burner efficiency (with hot water supply): 0.9

  Moreover, each of the effective power generation output E1, the effective heating heat output E2, and the effective hot water storage heat output E3 is obtained by the following formulas 6 to 8.

  E1 = Power generated by the combined heat and power supply apparatus 1− (surplus power + specific auxiliary power load) ………… (Formula 6)

  E2 = Heat load at the heating terminal 3 ............ (Expression 7)

E3 = (heat output of the combined heat and power supply device 1 + recovered heat amount of the electric heater 12−effective heating heat output E2) −heat dissipation loss (Equation 8)
However, the amount of heat recovered by the electric heater 12 = power consumption of the electric heater 12 × heat efficiency of the heater.

  Next, as shown in FIG. 5, in the state where the predicted energy saving degree and predicted hot water storage amount for every 12 hours are obtained, first, the prediction required for 12 hours ahead from the predicted hot water supply thermal load data is necessary. The hot water storage amount is obtained, and the hot water storage amount in the hot water storage tank 2 at the present time is subtracted from the predicted required hot water storage amount to obtain the necessary hot water storage amount required for 12 hours ahead. For example, if a hot water supply heat load of 9.8 kW is predicted 12 hours later from the predicted hot water supply heat load data, and the hot water storage amount in the hot water storage tank 2 is 2.5 kW at the present time, the time until 12 hours ahead The necessary hot water storage required for 7.3 kW is 7.3 kW.

  And in the state where the predicted hot water storage amount of the unit time is added, until the total predicted hot water storage amount reaches the required hot water storage amount, select from among the unit time for 12 units that has the highest predicted energy saving level I am going to go.

Hereinafter, description will be added with reference to FIG. 5 illustrating specific numerical values.
For example, as described above, when the required hot water storage amount is 7.3 kW, first, a unit time from 7 hours ahead to 8 hours ahead with the highest predicted energy saving degree is selected, and the predicted hot water storage amount in that unit time. Add together. Next, a unit time from 6 hours ahead to 7 hours ahead with a high predicted energy saving degree is selected, and the predicted hot water storage amount in the unit time is added, and the predicted hot water storage amount at that time is 1.1 kW.
Moreover, the unit time from 5 hours ahead to 6 hours ahead with the highest predicted energy saving degree is selected, and the predicted hot water storage amount in the unit time is added, and the predicted hot water storage amount at that time is 4.0 kW. .

In this way, when the selection of the unit time from the one with the high predicted energy saving value and the addition of the predicted hot water storage amount are repeated, the unit time from 8 hours to 9 hours ahead as shown in FIG. When is selected, the combined predicted hot water storage amount reaches 7.3 kW.
If it does so, the energy-saving degree of the unit time from 8 hours ahead to 9 hours ahead will be set as an energy-saving degree reference value, and in the thing shown in FIG.

  When the operation determination process is further described, the actual energy saving degree obtained by the above equation 5 from the current electric power load, the hot water supply heat load, and the current heating heat load is calculated based on the energy saving degree reference value. Is exceeded, it is determined that the operation of the cogeneration apparatus 1 is possible, and if the actual energy saving level is less than or equal to the energy saving standard value, it is determined that the operation of the cogeneration apparatus 1 is not possible. When it is determined that the operation of the cogeneration apparatus 1 is possible, the cogeneration apparatus 1 is operated. When it is determined that the operation of the cogeneration apparatus 1 is impossible, the operation of the cogeneration apparatus 1 is stopped (steps 7, 8, 9).

  That is, if the actual power load, hot water supply heat load, and heating heat load are substantially equal to the predicted power load data, predicted hot water supply heat load data, and predicted heating heat load data, the actual energy saving degree is obtained in the energy saving reference value calculation process. Since it becomes substantially equal to the predicted energy saving level, the combined heat and power supply apparatus 1 is operated in a plurality of unit times selected in order of the time zone with the highest predicted energy saving level so that the required hot water storage amount can be stored.

[Another embodiment]
Hereinafter, other embodiments are listed.

(1) In the above embodiment, the past load on the day determined to be unique based on the past load data on a plurality of days excluding the date determined to be unique in the usage status related data determination process. In determining the past load data to be used as a substitute for the data, the past load data on the day before the date determined to be peculiar was substituted. However, instead of such a configuration, the following [A] The configuration as shown in [b] may be adopted.

[A] As the processing of step 24 in the control flowchart of FIG. 7 in the above embodiment, the past load data seven days before the day determined to be peculiar is used as the past load of the day determined to be peculiar. It is also possible to obtain the past load data to be substituted for the data and substitute the data for the past load data.
[B] As the process of step 24 in the control flowchart of FIG. 7 in the above embodiment, the average value of past load data for 7 days (one week) before the day determined to be unique is determined to be specific. It is also possible to obtain past load data that substitutes for past load data for a day determined to be present, and substitute that data.

(2) In the above-described embodiment, the past load on the date determined to be unique based on the past load data on a plurality of days excluding the date determined to be unique in the usage status related data determination process. Although the configuration is such that the past load data is obtained as a substitute for the data, the configuration is not limited to such a configuration, and the past load data on the day determined to be unique may be left blank. In the case of such a configuration, when executing the process of updating the stored content while grouping and managing as time-series past load data corresponding to each day of the week as described in the above embodiment, Sets the coefficient “K” in the above [Equation 1] as K = 1. As a result, the past load data managed by grouping for each day of the week is maintained as D1 (m + 1) = D1 (m).

(3) In the above embodiment, as the actual usage status related data that can be collected by the usage status related data collection means, the power load, the time fluctuation amount of the power load, the bath hot water time, the number of hot water baths, water and hot water Although the actual supply amount has been described, it may be determined whether or not it is peculiar by using any one of these types of actual usage status-related data, and any two or more types of these may be determined. You may determine whether it is peculiar by the combination of usage condition related data.

(4) In the above-described embodiment, the thermoelectric generator is provided with a generator and a gas engine that drives the generator. However, instead of this configuration, a fuel cell may be used.

Block diagram showing the overall configuration of the cogeneration system Block diagram showing control configuration of cogeneration system Figure showing past load data managed by group Diagram showing predicted load data The figure explaining energy-saving standard value calculation processing Flow chart of control operation Flow chart of control operation

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Combined heat and power supply device 2 Hot water storage device 5 Operation control means 31 Hot water supply heat load measurement means (usage condition related data collection means)
32 Heating heat load measuring means (use status related data collecting means)
33 Hot water supply system (bath bathing means)
36 Bath hot water switch (use status related data collection means)
37 Bath reservation switch (usage-related data collection means)
P1 Commercial power measurement unit (usage-related data collection means)
P2 Power generation measurement unit (usage-related data collection means)

Claims (9)

A cogeneration device that generates heat and electric power together, and an operation control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device are provided,
A data management process in which the operation control means manages past load data for the measured thermal load and electric power load for a plurality of unit periods in the past in a state in which each unit period is sorted in the order of passage of time, and the data management Based on the past load data managed in the process, based on the predicted load calculation process for obtaining the predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load in the target unit period that is the target of the planned operation, and the predicted load data An energy supply system configured to execute an operation process for planned operation of the cogeneration device,
For each of the past plurality of unit periods, usage status related data collecting means for collecting actual usage status related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of heat usage status and power usage status by a consumer is provided,
The operation control means is
For the actual usage status related data of each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection means, the actual usage status related data is compared with the actual usage status related data of the other past plurality of unit periods. Is configured to execute usage-related data determination processing for determining whether or not it is unique,
In the predicted load calculation process, among the plurality of past unit periods, past loads in a plurality of unit periods excluding a unit period in which the actual use state related data is determined to be unique in the use state related data determination process Configured to determine the predicted load data based on the data ;
A bath hot water filling means for bathing the bathtub with hot water stored in a hot water storage device for storing hot water with heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device;
The usage status related data collecting means is configured to collect bath hot water filling time as the actual usage status related data,
The operation control means includes
In the usage status related data determination process, the bath hot water time for each of the past plurality of unit periods is compared with the average value of the bath hot water times of other past unit periods. An energy supply system configured to determine whether it is unique . A cogeneration device that generates heat and electric power together, and an operation control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device are provided,
A data management process in which the operation control means manages past load data for the measured thermal load and electric power load for a plurality of unit periods in the past in a state in which each unit period is sorted in the order of passage of time, and the data management Based on the past load data managed in the process, based on the predicted load calculation process for obtaining the predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load in the target unit period that is the target of the planned operation, and the predicted load data An energy supply system configured to execute an operation process for planned operation of the cogeneration device,
For each of the past plurality of unit periods, usage status related data collecting means for collecting actual usage status related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of heat usage status and power usage status by a consumer is provided,
The operation control means is
For the actual usage status related data of each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection means, the actual usage status related data is compared with the actual usage status related data of the other past plurality of unit periods. Is configured to execute usage-related data determination processing for determining whether or not it is unique,
In the predicted load calculation process, among the plurality of past unit periods, past loads in a plurality of unit periods excluding a unit period in which the actual use state related data is determined to be unique in the use state related data determination process Configured to determine the predicted load data based on the data;
A bath hot water filling means for bathing the bathtub with hot water stored in a hot water storage device for storing hot water with heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device;
The usage status related data collection means is configured to collect the number of hot water bathing as the actual usage status related data,
In the usage status related data determination process, the operation control means is configured such that the number of times of bath hot water for each of the plurality of past unit periods is the number of times of bath hot water for the other past unit periods. An energy supply system configured to determine whether it is singular compared to an average value . A cogeneration device that generates heat and electric power together, and an operation control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device are provided,
A data management process in which the operation control means manages past load data for the measured thermal load and electric power load for a plurality of unit periods in the past in a state in which each unit period is sorted in the order of passage of time, and the data management Based on the past load data managed in the process, based on the predicted load calculation process for obtaining the predicted load data for the thermal load and the power load in the target unit period that is the target of the planned operation, and the predicted load data An energy supply system configured to execute an operation process for planned operation of the cogeneration device,
For each of the past plurality of unit periods, usage status related data collecting means for collecting actual usage status related data directly or indirectly related to at least one of heat usage status and power usage status by a consumer is provided,
The operation control means is
For the actual usage status related data of each of the past plurality of unit periods collected by the usage status related data collection means, the actual usage status related data is compared with the actual usage status related data of the other past plurality of unit periods. Is configured to execute usage-related data determination processing for determining whether or not it is unique,
In the predicted load calculation process, among the plurality of past unit periods, past loads in a plurality of unit periods excluding a unit period in which the actual use state related data is determined to be unique in the use state related data determination process Configured to determine the predicted load data based on the data;
The usage status related data collecting means is configured to collect a power load of the past load data as the actual usage status related data,
The operation control means, in the usage status related data determination process, for each of the plurality of past unit periods, to calculate the absolute value of the difference by comparing the power load for each set time in chronological order, It is configured to calculate the actual integrated value of the calculated absolute value, and whether the calculated actual integrated value is unique compared to the average value of the actual integrated values for other past unit periods An energy supply system configured to determine . The usage status related data collecting means is configured to collect a power load of the past load data as the actual usage status related data,
In the usage status related data determination process, the operation control unit compares the power load of each of the past plurality of unit periods with an average value of the power loads of other past unit periods. The energy supply system according to claim 1, wherein the energy supply system is configured to determine whether or not it is peculiar. Water supply or hot water supply device for supplying hot water obtained using hot water stored in water or hot water storage device that stores hot water by heat generated in the combined heat and power supply device,
For the actual supply amount of at least one of the water and the hot water in each of the plurality of past unit periods, the usage status related data collection means is an average of the actual supply amounts of other past unit periods. The energy supply system according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the energy supply system is configured to determine whether or not it is singular compared to a value. The operation control means is
In the usage status related data determination process, based on past load data in a plurality of unit periods excluding a unit period in which the actual usage status data is determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods, The energy supply system according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the energy supply system is configured to obtain past load data as a substitute for past load data in a unit period in which the actual usage status data is determined to be unique . The operation control means is
In the usage status related data determination process, the unit period is determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods instead of the past load data in the unit period determined to be unique, with the unit period as one day. 7. The energy supply system according to claim 6 , wherein the energy supply system is configured to substitute an average value of past load data for seven days before the unit period . The operation control means is
In the usage status related data determination process, the unit period is determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods instead of the past load data in the unit period determined to be unique, with the unit period as one day. The energy supply system of any one of Claims 1-5 comprised so that the past load data in the day before the unit period may be substituted . The operation control means is
In the usage status related data determination process, the unit period is determined to be unique among the plurality of past unit periods instead of the past load data in the unit period determined to be unique, with the unit period as one day. The energy supply system of any one of Claims 1-5 comprised so that it may substitute for the past load data in 7 days before the unit period .

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