JP4622352B2 - Product life cycle prediction method, product life cycle prediction device, and product life cycle prediction program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a method for predicting the life cycle of a product for which there is no sales performance data.

  When developing a product, whether it is sold or not, and how well the product is placed on the market, that is, the activity of the product, the life cycle of the introduction period, growth period, maturity period, and decline period. It is very difficult to predict and examine each section.

  As a currently performed method, there is proposed a method of statistically checking whether the product is in an introduction period or a decline period based on data of sales results of the product (see Patent Document 1). .)

According to this, it is used to analyze the sales trend of products sold at each store in the franchise chain and manage the sales of the products. Calculate the sales volume, calculate the coverage that represents the percentage of stores where the target product is handled, and display the sales volume per store and the transition of the coverage with arrows on the graph. Whether the product should be actively handled or should be stopped by indicating the transition of product sales results and indicating the stage of the product in the initial stage of introduction, maturity, or decline by the direction of the arrow An invention is disclosed that allows for easy decision making.
Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2002-109641 “Sales Management Support System, Sales Management Support Method, and Recording Medium”

  The method disclosed in Patent Document 1 cannot be considered unless there is sales performance data for products already on sale. However, in the development of new products, there is of course no sales performance data, so the method cannot examine the life cycle of new products.

  Accordingly, an object of the present invention is to provide means for easily predicting the life cycle of a product to be planned or sold even when there is no sales record data of the product.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram of the present invention. In the figure, the practice arrows indicate the flow of control, and indicate that each means for performing the processes shown in 2, 5, 8, 11, and 13 operates sequentially. A dotted arrow indicates the flow of information.

  This is a collection of articles published in publications, etc., which are obtained by searching the stored and organized article database. The characteristics of the products, such as the products you want to predict the life cycle and the sales in the market, are similar. It shows a mechanism for predicting the life cycle of a target product based on the change over time of the number of articles related to similar products that are thought to exist.

  Reference numeral 2 denotes a search condition input means for inputting, as a search condition, a product name for which a life cycle is predicted and a count unit period for counting the number of articles in the article database 4.

  5 is an article in which the article name indicated in the article database 4 is searched, and the number of articles obtained is divided into the inputted counting unit period and stored in the article number table shown in 7 or 9. It is a number counting means.

  That is, the similar product correspondence table 1 is a table that stores the name of the target product for which the life cycle is desired to be predicted and the name of a similar product that seems to have similar characteristics such as sales in the market. When the similar product name stored in the similar product correspondence table 1 corresponding to the product name input by the search condition input means 2 is instructed and searched and counted, the article count table displays the number of similar product articles by period. When the table 7 is used and the target product name for which the input life cycle is desired to be predicted is specified and searched and counted, the article number table is stored using the target product article number table 9 by period. .

  Also, 3 is an article number counting means 5 that is added to search only articles that are more strongly related to the product life cycle and is used as a search condition as a keyword. It is an additional keyword table which memorize | stored the keyword commonly used as a term.

  6 is a life cycle phase section determination table, in which the life cycle phase section, that is, the product introduction period, growth period, maturity period, and decline period is determined by determining the time change of the number of articles indicating the activity of the product. Therefore, the change pattern of each phase section is stored.

  8 is a method for determining a time change in the number of articles of similar products stored in the similar product article count table by period 7 based on the life cycle phase section determination table 6 and calculating a phase section of a life cycle to calculate a life cycle. It is a life cycle phase interval calculation means stored in the phase interval table 10. Here, when there are a plurality of similar products, the period of the phase interval is calculated by taking a weighted average using the weighting coefficient added for each similar product stored in the similar product correspondence table 1. .

  The life cycle activity calculating means 11 distributes the number of articles stored in the similar product article count table by period 7 for each life cycle phase section stored in the life cycle phase section table 10 to determine the life cycle activity of similar products. The degree is stored in the life cycle activity table 12.

  The life cycle activity display means 13 displays the predicted life cycle activity stored in the life cycle activity table 12 corresponding to the time axis together with the life cycle phase section, and the target product article count table by period 9 Is displayed together with the transition of the number of articles of the target products published so far.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to present to the user an objective determination result indicating which phase of the product, service, etc., the target business is currently in the introduction period, growth period, maturity period, or decline period.

  In addition, by predicting and displaying the transition of activity for each section of the life cycle of the target product calculated from the number of articles reflecting the activity of similar products, the number of articles of the target product to date That is, the activity of the target product can be displayed and extended to predict and display the future.

  Therefore, the user can easily grasp the trend of the business to be planned by referring to the determination result. And it is possible to easily make a decision on whether to accept the plan. This makes it possible to make quick business planning decisions and examinations based on clear and objective standards.

  On the other hand, a provider of a commercial database adds value to the commercial database service, and can promote the use of the commercial database.

  As the best mode for carrying out the present invention, in a market where competition for development is fierce, a similar product or service similar to a product or service that has already begun to be put on the market is planned and a new entry is planned. At the same time, we aimed at a system that predicts the life cycle of new products necessary for decision making on development and sales.

  In the present embodiment, a form realized by a computer program executed on a computer used for general purposes such as a personal computer or a workstation is shown.

  The product life cycle prediction apparatus of the present invention is realized by being executed as a computer program on a computer including a processing device, a main storage device, an input / output device, and the like. The computer program is stored and provided in a portable medium such as a floppy disk or CD-ROM, or in a main storage device or an auxiliary storage device of another computer connected to the network.

  The life cycle prediction program of the present invention is loaded directly from a portable medium into a main storage device of a computer, or in a computer equipped with an auxiliary storage device, once copied or installed from a portable medium to an auxiliary storage device, the main memory It is loaded into the device and executed. Also, when stored and provided in another device connected to the network, after being received from another device via the network, it is loaded into the main storage device, or in a computer having an auxiliary storage device, the auxiliary storage device Are copied into the main storage device and executed.

  FIG. 2 is a system configuration diagram showing an embodiment for realizing the life cycle prediction apparatus of the present invention.

  In this embodiment, a user operates to input a product name for predicting a life cycle, input a condition for prediction, a computer 23 connected with a LAN 22 and an article such as a newspaper or a magazine. The life cycle is predicted by a system composed of a search key assigned in advance and an article database 24 stored so as to be searchable using a character string of the article text. The computer 23 includes not only the article database shown in the figure but also resources necessary for the operation of the life cycle prediction program of the present invention.

  Further, the terminal 21 can display a result such as a predicted life cycle and can perform a necessary conversation with the user, and the connection between the terminal 21 and the computer 23 is not limited to the LAN connection. Other network connection modes may be used. Details of the configuration and operation of this embodiment will be described below with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 3 shows a search condition input screen. This screen is an input operation screen displayed on the terminal 21, and gives a condition for searching the article database from here and counting the number of articles.

  First, in the keyword input area, enter the name of the product for which you want to predict the life cycle. As illustrated on the screen, for example, a commonly used name indicating a product to be entered from now on such as “Video D” is input. The product name of video D shown here is not a unique trademark or product name of a specific company. As a more specific example, an industry standard such as “Mini DV” has been decided and each company plans it. At this stage, it is going to predict the life cycle in the market for this new kind of product.

  In the next input area and counting unit period, a unit period for searching the article database and counting the number of articles is input. For example, as illustrated, the unit period is 12 months and 1 year. When a product with a long life cycle is expected, a long unit period is designated in this way. For short-term decisive battle products, a more detailed half year or three months is specified.

  The search range period specifies the range of article information to be searched by the start date, end date, etc. The search target paper is selected by indicating the names of newspapers and magazines stored in the article database in advance.

  As described above, the life cycle prediction is started by pressing the search button after inputting the search conditions.

  FIG. 4 shows the configuration of the similar product correspondence table. In this embodiment, the product name is specified shortly after the development and planning starts, and its life cycle is predicted. Therefore, even if article information is searched with the product name entered in the search input condition, the initial topic The long-term life cycle is predicted by searching for similar product results from article information.

  Therefore, in this similar product correspondence table, a new product as specified in the search condition input screen is stored in this table in correspondence with a product that has a life cycle record in the past similar to the new product. I try to keep it.

  Corresponding to the target product for which the life cycle is predicted as shown in the example, video D or laser H, similar product names such as video B, video C, laser F, laser G,. I am letting.

  Here, the similar products are, for example, new models such as “8 mm video” and “VHS-C” for the new product “Mini DV”, such as usage, price, purchase layer, etc. The life cycle period leading to the turnover and sales that seem to be similar are set in advance and stored in a table.

  Next, FIG. 5 shows the configuration of the additional keyword table. This additional keyword refers to the planning and development of the product, such as when the article database is searched for the input keyword, for example, “Video D”, and it appears as a conversation of a general user in the topic of a literary work. If you want to exclude such articles from being searched, there are business terms that are used for press releases and product introductions. It is a keyword to be added.

  By automatically adding such keywords without being conscious of the user who performs the search, there is an effect that information indicating the activity in the life cycle of the product can be obtained more accurately.

  FIG. 6 illustrates the configuration of the article database. In the embodiment of the present invention, the information to be acquired by searching from the article database is the article to be searched, that is, the similar article, the article date and the article describing the article name such as the new article to be predicted for the life cycle are identified. This is the article ID.

  Here, it is shown that these pieces of information are stored in correspondence with the article address indicating the location of the article text relating to the A newspaper. As the structure of the database, pre-extracted keywords, article attributes, and classification information may be attached.

  Therefore, since the information of the article list as a result of the search is also obtained in the format of FIG. 6, it is possible to count the number of articles for each predetermined counting unit period arranged in the order of date, and the transition of the number of articles as shown in FIG. can do.

  FIG. 7 shows a configuration example of the life cycle phase section determination table. In the embodiment of the present invention, the phase section of the life cycle, that is, the period divided into the introduction period, the growth period, the maturity period, and the decline period after the product is put on the market is detected from the temporal change pattern of the number of articles. Yes. The life cycle phase section determination table is defined and stored for each phase section with the determination conditions for this temporal change pattern, and the pattern of temporal changes in the number of cases as shown in the increase / decrease trend diagram is shown for each unit period. This is determined by comparing with the number of articles in the tabulated table.

  Here, text is shown for each section as the phase determination condition, but in actuality, it is composed of a table portion indicating a numerical value determined as the logic portion of the program.

  Specifically, in the introduction period, it is determined whether or not the number of unit sections has increased more than twice the previous section, and the unit period until the condition is detected is determined to be the introduction period. However, if the initial number is less than a certain number, it is determined that the period is the introduction period even if the rate of change is large.

  As for the growth period, it is determined that the period is the growth period while the number of articles in that period has increased from the previous period, and that the period once has started to decrease.

  In the mature period, the number of articles in the unit period is determined until the period in which it is detected that the number of articles has become half or less compared to the peak number in the unit period determined as the growth period.

  And the decline period which becomes the last section is set as a period until it becomes below a fixed number of cases after that.

  FIG. 8 illustrates a similar product article count table and a life cycle phase section table by period.

  FIG. 8A is a similar product article count table by period, and an article database of two similar products, video B and video C, whose targets are predicted corresponding to video D in FIG. The number of search results is shown in a list.

  In the phase determination column, as a result of determining the change in the number of cases in the previous term list based on the life cycle phase interval determination table of FIG. For example, in the case of Video B, the introductory period is the first period and the second period, the growth period is the third period to the third period, and the mature period is the first period, the sixth period, and the decline period. Indicates that it is determined to be two periods of the seventh and eighth periods.

  FIG. 8B is a life cycle phase section table. This is a table for similar products, video B and video C, with the number of periods determined for the phase as the number of periods for each phase section.

  Regarding Video B, it can be seen that the introduction period, the growth period, the maturity period, and the decline period were the second period, the third period, the first period, and the second period, respectively. Similarly, video C is in the second period, the first period, the second period, and the first period. As described above, when a plurality of similar products are set, the result of counting the number of articles is taken as a weighted average with the set weighting factor. The weighted average is taken as 1. As a result, the estimated life cycle phase section shows that the introduction period is 2, the growth period is 2, the maturity period is 1.5, and the decline period is 1.5.

  As described above, a graph frame is drawn by putting a dividing line in the phase section of the life cycle of the target product obtained by judging the change in the number of articles searched by the product name for similar products with past results in the article database. Can be drawn.

  FIG. 9 shows the number of similar product articles by period (a), the prediction phase section (b), the life cycle of the predicted new product (c), and the number of target product articles by period (d). The number of similar product articles by period (a) is as described in FIG. 8, and the prediction phase classification is obtained by adjusting the horizontal time axis for each period of the phase interval calculated in FIG. 8B.

  In the prediction life cycle graph of FIG. 9C, the number of articles of one video B of similar products searched by compressing or expanding the time axis for each predicted phase section is drawn as a line graph. A solid bar graph separately shows the number of articles so far for new products obtained in the same manner as the similar products (see FIG. 9D).

  Furthermore, the dotted line bar graph shows the transition of the number of articles of new products in the future with a numerical value in accordance with the predicted line graph of the number of articles predicted from the similar products. A vertical dotted line is a dividing line that represents each section of the introduction period, the growth period, the maturity period, and the decline period in accordance with FIG. 8B.

  FIG. 10 shows a life cycle prediction flowchart. This is a summary of the processing described with reference to each of the drawings, and the flow will be described for each step.

  In step S1, first, a search condition for searching the article database (name of target product for which life cycle is to be predicted, article publication date range to be searched, article counting unit period) is input.

  In step S2, the similar product name stored in correspondence with the input target product name is extracted from the similar product correspondence table. There may be a plurality of similar product names.

  In step S3, the article database is searched for each similar product name, the number of articles is counted for each set count unit period, and stored in the article count table for each similar product period.

  In step S4, a change in the number of articles by period is determined for each similar product, and life cycle phase sections of the introduction period, the growth period, the maturity period, and the decline period are calculated.

  In step S5, if there are a plurality of similar products, a weighted average is taken to predict the life cycle phase section of the target product.

  In step S6, the article database is searched for the target product name, the number of articles is counted, and stored in the article number table for each target product period.

  In step S7, the number of articles by target product period is displayed as a graph together with the estimated life cycle phase section as the activity.

  Finally, in step S8, the number of articles by similar product period is allocated to the estimated life cycle phase section, and the activity of the target product is predicted and displayed.

  The product life cycle prediction apparatus according to the present invention, as shown in the embodiment, when there is a similar product having similar characteristics as a product, a new product is obtained by a method of actually measuring the number of articles posted in the past similar product articles. In the planning stage or the initial stage of market introduction, it is possible to infer the life cycle indicating the subsequent sales of the product, which is a support tool for examining the sales strategy.

  In addition, after a lapse of time since being put on the market, it can be used as a means for superimposing and evaluating the performance of posting the article on the new product itself, or for predicting a more reliable future.

Configuration diagram of the present invention Configuration diagram of an embodiment of the present invention Search condition input screen Similar product correspondence table Additional keyword table Article database Life cycle phase section judgment table Number of similar product articles by period table (a) and life cycle phase section table (b) Number of similar product articles by period (a), forecast phase interval (b), forecast life cycle (c), and number of target product articles by period (d) Life cycle prediction flowchart

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Similar product correspondence table 2 Search condition input means 3 Additional keyword table 4 Article database 5 Article number counting means 6 Life cycle phase section judgment table 7 Similar product article count table by period 8 Life cycle phase section calculation means 9 Article article by period Number table 10 Life cycle phase section table 11 Life cycle activity calculation means 12 Life cycle activity table 13 Life cycle activity display means

Claims (9)

A life cycle prediction method for a first product executed by a computer,
The second product similar to the first product stored in the similar product correspondence storage unit in association with the product name of the first product input from the input unit and the product name of the first product Obtaining the product name of
Using the product name of the second product as a search condition , the article of the second product is searched from an article database in which an article published in a publication and a publication date of the article are stored in association with each other. For each counting unit period , counting the number of articles of the second product on the posting date within the counting unit period ;
By comparing the change in the increase or decrease in the number of articles of the second product counted for each counting unit period with the determination condition for the change in the increase or decrease in the number of articles defined in advance for each phase of the life cycle, determining between each phase District of the life cycle of the second product,
Searching the article database using the product name of the first product as a search condition, and counting the number of articles of the first product for each counting unit period;
Display and the article number of the first products of each of the counting unit period, the and between each phase District of the second item of the life cycle, in association with the article number of the second item of each of the counting unit period And steps to
A product life cycle prediction method characterized by comprising: The determining step includes a counting unit period in which the number of articles of the second product is counted up to a counting unit period in which the number of articles is increased to a first predetermined number or more compared to the previous counting unit period. From the next counting unit period of the counting unit period determined as the introducing period to the counting unit period in which the number of articles is reduced compared to the previous counting unit period. The counting unit period is determined as the growth period, and the number of articles decreases from the next counting unit period of the growth period to a second predetermined number or less compared to the maximum number of articles in the measurement unit period of the growth period. The product life cycle prediction method according to claim 1, wherein a counting unit period is determined to be a maturity period, and a measurement unit period from a measurement unit period next to the maturity period to a certain number or less is determined to be a decline period. The displaying step includes the number of articles of the first product for each counting unit period on a graph having a time axis and an article number axis adjusted for each phase of the life cycle of the second product. The product according to claim 1 or 2, wherein a division line indicating a division of a period of each phase of the life cycle of the second product and the number of articles of the second product for each counting unit period are displayed. Life cycle prediction method. The product name of the first product input from the input unit and the second product similar to the first product stored in the similar product correspondence storage unit in association with the product name of the first product. Similar product correspondence table with product names,
An article database in which articles published in publications and the publication dates of the articles are stored in association with each other ;
For each count unit period set in advance, the number of articles of the second product on the publication date within the count unit period is searched and counted from the article database, thereby counting the second product. A life cycle phase section determination table for determining a period of each phase of the life cycle of the second product from a change in increase / decrease in the number of articles
Search condition input means for inputting the product name of the first product and the counting unit period as a search condition;
The article database is searched by inputting the product name of the second product and the counting unit period stored in the similar product correspondence table corresponding to the product name of the input first product, and the input Means for counting the number of articles of the second product for each counted unit period and storing it in a similar product article count table by period;
From the change in increase / decrease in the number of articles of the second product counted for each counting unit period, the period of each phase of the life cycle of the second product is determined based on the life cycle phase section determination table. Means for storing in the life cycle phase section table;
Means for searching the article database using the product name of the first product as a search condition, counting the number of articles of the first product for each counting unit period, and storing it in a target product article count table by period;
In association with the article number of the first products of each of the counting unit period, and between the district of each phase of the second item of the life cycle, the article number of the second item of each of the counting unit period Means for displaying a life cycle of the first product;
A product life cycle prediction device comprising: The means for storing in the life cycle phase section table increases the number of articles to a first predetermined number or more with respect to the counting unit period in which the number of articles of the second product is counted compared to the previous counting unit period. The counting unit period up to the counting unit period is determined as the introduction period, and the number of articles decreases from the counting unit period next to the counting unit period determined as the introduction period compared to the previous counting unit period. A counting unit period up to a certain counting unit period is determined as a growth period, and the number of articles from the next counting unit period of the growth period is the second predetermined number of articles compared to the maximum number of articles in the measurement unit period of the growth period The life cycle is determined by determining the period until the counting unit period decreased to a number or less as the mature period, and determining the measurement unit period from the next measurement unit period of the maturity period to a certain number or less as the decline period. In the phase interval table Product lifecycle prediction apparatus according to claim 4 wherein the means for 憶. The means for predicting the life cycle of the product has the first axis for each count unit period on a graph having a time axis and an article number axis adjusted for each phase of the life cycle of the second product. By associating and displaying the number of articles of the product, the division line indicating the division of the period of each phase of the life cycle of the second product, and the number of articles of the second product for each counting unit period, The product life cycle prediction apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the product life cycle prediction unit is a unit that displays a product life cycle. A first product life cycle prediction program,
The second product similar to the first product stored in the similar product correspondence storage unit in association with the product name of the first product input from the input unit and the product name of the first product Obtaining the product name of
Using the product name of the second product as a search condition , the article of the second product is searched from an article database in which an article published in a publication and a publication date of the article are stored in association with each other. For each counting unit period , counting the number of articles of the second product on the posting date within the counting unit period ;
By comparing the change in the increase or decrease in the number of articles of the second product counted for each counting unit period with the determination condition for the change in the increase or decrease in the number of articles defined in advance for each phase of the life cycle,
And determining the inter-ward each phase of the life cycle of the second product,
Searching the article database using the product name of the first product as a search condition, and counting the number of articles of the first product for each counting unit period;
In association with the article number of the first products of each of the counting unit period, and between the district of each phase of the second item of the life cycle, the article number of the second item of each of the counting unit period Steps to display;
Product life cycle prediction program to make computer execute. The determining step includes a counting unit period in which the number of articles of the second product is counted up to a counting unit period in which the number of articles is increased to a first predetermined number or more compared to the previous counting unit period. From the next counting unit period of the counting unit period determined as the introducing period to the counting unit period in which the number of articles is reduced compared to the previous counting unit period. The counting unit period is determined as the growth period, and the number of articles decreases from the next counting unit period of the growth period to a second predetermined number or less compared to the maximum number of articles in the measurement unit period of the growth period. 8. The product life cycle prediction program according to claim 7, wherein a counting unit period is determined to be a mature period, and a measurement unit period from a measurement unit period subsequent to the mature period to a certain number or less is determined to be a decline period. The displaying step includes the number of articles of the first product for each counting unit period on a graph having a time axis and an article number axis adjusted for each phase of the life cycle of the second product. The product according to claim 7 or 8, wherein a division line indicating a division of a period of each phase of the life cycle of the second product and the number of articles of the second product for each counting unit period are displayed. Life cycle prediction program.

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