JP5153850B2 - Water storage facility operation support system, water storage facility operation support method and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a water storage facility operation support system, a water storage facility operation support method, and a program.

  In order to efficiently perform hydropower generation, a computer-based operation support system is used. For example, in Patent Document 1, a generator operation plan and a water level plan that are automatically calculated based on the amount of discharged water per day, a past generator operation plan and actual data of the water level plan, etc. are displayed, and corrections are made as necessary. Accepting and preparing a power generation operation plan.

JP 2006-39838 A

However, in the apparatus described in Patent Document 1, although the water level is planned according to the amount of water discharged per day and the actual result in the reservoir, no attention is paid to the invalid discharge amount.
The present invention has been made in view of such a background, and provides a system, a method, and a program for supporting the operation of a water storage facility capable of planning an optimal water level while reducing an ineffective discharge flow rate. Objective.

A main invention of the present invention for solving the above problems is a system for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydropower generation, wherein the water level of the water storage facility at the start of a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period, An electric energy model for calculating the electric energy generated in the unit period by the hydroelectric power generation based on the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period and the inflow amount in the unit period; and A model storage unit that stores a water storage amount model for calculating the water level based on the water storage amount of the water storage facility, and an upper limit water storage amount that is information for calculating the upper limit water storage amount of the water storage facility for each unit period Specification storage unit for storing determination information, and invalid discharge rate acquisition unit for acquiring an evaluation value of an invalid discharge rate that is discharged without being used for the hydropower generation in the past unit period The respective unit periods, calculates the upper limit water amount based on the upper limit water storage decision information, the invalid value in accordance with the evaluation value of the discharge amount is subtracted from the upper reservoir volume, the per unit period Applying an upper limit water storage amount to the water storage amount model, obtaining an upper limit water level calculation unit for calculating an upper limit water level for each unit period, and obtaining a predicted value of the inflow amount for each unit period included in the operation period For the predicted inflow amount acquisition unit and each unit period, the water level at the start time of the unit period and the water level at the end time of the unit period are changed within a range below the upper limit water level corresponding to the unit period, and the unit The inflow amount in a period is changed within a predetermined range, and the amount of electric power is calculated by applying the changed water level and the changed inflow amount to the electric energy model. The calculated continue to calculate evaluation values in accordance with electric energy, and further comprising a total, and the optimum water level determining portion that determines the combination of the water with the maximum of the evaluation value.

  Further, the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention includes a performance database that stores the inflow amount and the actual water storage value in the past unit period, and the invalid discharge rate acquisition unit is provided for each unit period. The actual value of the inflow amount and the actual value of the stored water amount are acquired from the actual result database, the increase amount of the stored water amount is calculated, and given to the hydroelectric generator in the unit period from the acquired actual value of the inflow amount. A value obtained by subtracting the maximum water amount and the increase amount of the water storage amount may be calculated as the evaluation value of the invalid discharge flow rate.

  Further, the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention has a record database storing the record value of the inflow amount in the past unit period, and the sum of the evaluation values is maximized in association with the water level and the inflow amount. An optimum water level database for storing the water level, wherein the optimum water level determination unit determines a combination of the water levels within a range equal to or lower than a predetermined upper limit water level, and determines each water level included in the determined combination of water levels. , Registering in the optimum water level database in association with the water level and the inflow amount, the invalid discharge flow rate acquisition unit acquires the actual value of the inflow amount from the actual result database for each unit period, The water level is set to the first water level corresponding to the first unit period, and the actual value of the first water level and the inflow amount is obtained from the optimum water level database for each unit period. The corresponding water level is read as a second water level corresponding to the next unit period, and the amount of increase in the water storage amount in the unit period is calculated based on the difference between the first and second water levels and the water storage amount model. Then, a value obtained by subtracting the maximum amount of water given to the hydroelectric generator during the unit period and the increase amount of the stored water amount from the actual value of the acquired inflow amount is calculated as the invalid discharge amount generated in the unit period. The upper limit water level calculation unit calculates the upper limit water level for each unit period, and the optimum water level determination unit determines the combination of the water levels again within a range equal to or lower than the upper limit water level for each unit period. It may be.

  Further, in the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the upper limit water level calculation unit calculates a rounded value obtained by rounding the evaluation value of the invalid discharge flow into a predetermined unit, calculates an appearance frequency of the rounded value, and You may make it subtract the said upper limit water storage amount according to frequency.

  Further, in the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the invalid discharge rate acquisition unit acquires an evaluation value of the invalid discharge rate corresponding to each of the past operation period and unit period, and the upper limit water level calculation unit. Calculates the appearance frequency of the rounded value for each unit period, calculates the cumulative appearance frequency in ascending order of the rounded value, and sets the rounded value at which the cumulative appearance frequency is equal to or higher than a predetermined reference value to the upper limit water storage You may make it subtract from quantity.

  In the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the upper limit water level calculation unit calculates the occurrence probability of the rounded value for each unit period, calculates the cumulative occurrence probability in ascending order of the rounded value, and the cumulative You may make it subtract the said rounding value from which the generation | occurrence | production probability becomes more than predetermined value from the said upper limit water storage amount.

  In the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the optimum water level determination unit may change the water level at the start of the unit period from a predetermined minimum water level to a predetermined maximum water level every predetermined step. Good.

  In the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the optimum water level determination unit may change the inflow amount in the unit period for each predetermined unit amount from a predetermined minimum amount to a predetermined maximum amount. Good.

  In the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the optimum water level determination unit may determine the combination of the water levels that maximizes the sum of the evaluation values by a probabilistic dynamic programming method.

Another aspect of the present invention is a method for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation, wherein the computer including a CPU and a memory is configured to start the unit period constituting a predetermined operation period. Electricity for calculating the amount of electric power generated by the hydroelectric power generation in the unit period based on the water level of the water storage facility, the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period, and the inflow amount in the unit period An amount model and a storage amount model for calculating the water level based on the storage amount of the storage facility in the memory, and information for calculating an upper limit storage amount of the storage facility for each unit period A certain upper limit water storage amount determination information is stored in the memory, and an evaluation value of an invalid discharge amount discharged without being used for the hydroelectric power generation in the past unit period is acquired, For position period, on the basis of the upper limit water volume determination information to calculate the upper limit water amount, it subtracts the value corresponding to the evaluation value of the invalid discharge amount from the upper reservoir volume, the upper limit of water content of each of the unit period Is applied to the water storage model to calculate an upper limit water level for each unit period, to obtain a predicted value of the inflow amount for each unit period included in the operation period, and for each unit period, The water level at the start of the unit period and the water level at the end of the unit period are changed within a range below the upper limit water level corresponding to the unit period, and the inflow amount in the unit period is changed within a predetermined range. The changed water level and the changed inflow amount are applied to the electric energy model to calculate the electric energy, and an evaluation value corresponding to the calculated electric energy is calculated. And the sum of the evaluation values to determine a combination of the water level becomes maximum.

Another aspect of the present invention is a program for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydropower generation, wherein a computer having a CPU and a memory has a start time of a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period. In order to calculate the amount of electric power generated in the unit period by the hydroelectric power generation based on the water level of the water storage facility in the unit, the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period, and the inflow amount in the unit period Storing in the memory a water amount model for calculating the water level based on the amount of water stored in the water storage facility, and calculating an upper limit water storage amount of the water storage facility for each unit period Storing the upper limit water storage amount determination information, which is information for the storage unit, in the memory, and discharging in the past unit period without being used for the hydroelectric power generation. Obtaining an evaluation value of the invalid discharge flow rate, and for each unit period, calculating the upper limit water storage amount based on the upper limit water storage amount determination information, and setting the value corresponding to the evaluation value of the invalid discharge flow rate to the upper limit water storage amount subtracted from the amount, by applying the upper limit water amount for each unit period to the water storage model, calculating an upper limit water level for each of the unit period, for each unit period included in the operation period, the A step of obtaining a predicted value of inflow, and for each unit period, the water level at the start of the unit period and the water level at the end of the unit period are changed within a range equal to or lower than the upper limit water level corresponding to the unit period. In addition, the inflow amount in the unit period is changed within a predetermined range, and the changed water level and the changed inflow amount are applied to the electric energy model. And calculating the power amount, calculating an evaluation value according to the calculated power amount, and determining the combination of the water levels that maximizes the sum of the evaluation values. .

  Other problems and solutions to be disclosed by the present application will be made clear by the embodiments of the invention and the drawings.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to plan an optimum water level while reducing the invalid discharge flow rate.

2 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of an operation support system 30. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of an operation planning system 30. FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the specification information memorize | stored in the specification memory | storage part 331. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the optimal water level database 333. FIG. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the plan water level database. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the results database 335. FIG. It is a figure which shows the flow of the plan process of an optimal water level. It is a figure which shows the flow of the adjustment process of item information. It is a figure which shows an example of the total table 41 which memorize | stores the invalid discharge | release flow | rate for every season corresponding to each year. It is a figure which shows an example of the distribution table 42 which records distribution of occurrence probability. It is a figure which shows an example of the cumulative distribution table. It is a graph which shows an example of the amount of invalid discharge pockets calculated by the above-mentioned processing, and upper limit water storage amount Vmax _{, t} . It is a figure which shows the flow of optimal water level calculation. It is a figure explaining the flow of registration processing of a plan water level. It is a figure which shows the flow of the adjustment process matched with operation. It is a figure explaining the difference of the amount of ineffective discharge in the case where the amount of pockets is considered, and the case where it does not consider in the case where the amount of inflow is the maximum. It is a figure explaining the difference of the invalid discharge | emission flow with the case where the amount of pockets is considered, and the case where it does not consider in case an inflow amount is large. It is a figure explaining the difference of the amount of ineffective discharge in the case where the amount of pockets is considered, and the case where it does not consider in the case where the inflow amount is medium. It is a figure explaining the difference of the amount of ineffective discharge in the case where the amount of pockets is considered, and the case where it does not consider when the amount of inflow is small.

== System configuration ==
Hereinafter, a water storage facility operation support system 30 according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described. The operation support system 30 of the present embodiment provides support for appropriately operating the water level in a water storage facility such as a dam.

  In the operation support system 30 of the present embodiment, the water level that maximizes the expected value of the amount of generated power is stored in the database as an optimal water level so that discharge (invalid discharge) that is not used for power generation is minimized during operation. The water level plan is adjusted. Specifically, the operation support system 30 maximizes the amount of generated power in a period (hereinafter, referred to as “long-term operation period”, which is one year in this embodiment) that is a target of a long-term operation plan. In addition, a simulation is performed for the optimal water level for each period (hereinafter referred to as “medium-term operation period”, which is referred to as “season” in this embodiment), which is the target of the medium-term operation plan. In addition, the maximum value that can be taken by the water level (maximum operating water level, which will be described later) is changed according to the past actual value of the invalid discharge flow rate. In the following description, the water level in the water storage facility is assumed to be a discrete value for each predetermined unit amount (for example, 1 meter, 5 meters, etc., hereinafter referred to as “unit water level”). The water level in the medium-term operation period that maximizes the amount of power generated in the long-term operation period shall be determined by Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP).

  FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of the operation support system 30. The operation planning system 30 includes a CPU 301, a memory 302, a storage device 303, a communication interface 304, an input device 305, and an output device 306. The storage device 303 stores various data and programs, for example, a hard disk drive, a flash memory, a CD-ROM drive, and the like. The CPU 301 implements various functions by reading the program stored in the storage device 303 into the memory 302 and executing it. The communication interface 304 is an interface for connecting to a communication network. For example, an adapter for connecting to Ethernet (registered trademark), a modem for connecting to a public telephone line network, and a communication device for performing wireless communication Etc. The input device 305 is a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, a microphone, or the like that accepts data input. The output device 306 is, for example, a display, a printer, or a speaker that outputs data.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of the operation planning system 30. The operation planning system 30 includes a specification input unit 311, a predicted inflow acquisition unit 312, a medium-term plan unit 313, an invalid discharge adjustment unit 314, a specification storage unit 331, a model storage unit 332, an optimum water level database 333, and a planned water level database 334. A performance database 335 is provided. The specification input unit 311, the inflow amount acquisition unit 312, the medium-term plan unit 313, and the invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 are read by the CPU 201 included in the operation plan system 30 by reading the program stored in the storage device 303 into the memory 302. It is realized by executing. The specification storage unit 331, the optimum water level database 333, the planned water level database 334, and the result database 335 are realized as storage areas provided by the memory 302 and the storage device 303 provided in the operation planning system 30. The specification storage unit 331, the model storage unit 332, the optimum water level database 333, the planned water level database 334, and the result database 335 are managed by a database server different from the operation planning system 30, and the operation planning system 30 is used as the database server. You may make it access.

  The specification storage unit 331 stores information including set values of various specifications such as water storage facilities, rivers, and power generation facilities (hereinafter referred to as “specific information”), and the specification input unit 311 stores specifications. The input of information is accepted, and the received specification information is registered in the specification storage unit 331. The specification input unit 311 may receive input of each item of specification information from the input device 305 such as a keyboard and a mouse, for example, or access the specification information by accessing the host computer of the power company, for example. You may make it acquire.

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of the specification information stored in the specification storage unit 331. As shown in FIG. 3, the specification input unit 311 is preliminarily referred to as the maximum value of the water level (hereinafter referred to as “maximum operating water level” as the specification relating to the water storage facility, “H _max ”. The unit is “m”. ) And the minimum value of the water level (hereinafter referred to as “minimum operating water level”, expressed as “H _min ”. The unit is “m”), and the received maximum operating water level The specification information including and the specification information including the minimum operational water level are created and registered in the specification storage unit 331, and the maintenance flow (hereinafter referred to as “S0”. m ³ / s ”)), the specification information including the received maintenance flow rate is created and registered in the specification storage unit 331, and can be used for power generation as specifications relating to the power generation equipment. the maximum amount of water (hereinafter, referred to as the "maximum water intake amount", referred to as "Q _max." single Is "m ^{3 /} s".), The amount of water the lowest that can be used for power generation (hereinafter, referred to as the "minimum water intake amount", referred to as "Q _min". The unit is "m ^{3 /} s". ), Discharge height after power generation (hereinafter referred to as “water discharge level”, expressed as “H _out ”, unit is “m”), and loss drop (hereinafter referred to as “H _los ”) The unit is “m”.) The minimum amount of water for operating the generator (hereinafter referred to as “minimum operating output”, expressed as “Q0 _min ”. The unit is “m ³ / s”. ), When calculating the distribution of reactive discharge, which will be described later, a unit for counting the reactive discharge (hereinafter referred to as “ineffective discharge unit”. The unit is “m ³ / s”), Receives input of criteria used for accumulating distributions (hereinafter referred to as “management criteria”; the unit is “%”). At the same time, the specification information including the received maximum water intake, the specification information including the minimum water intake, the specification information including the discharge level, and the specification information including the loss head are created and registered in the specification storage unit 331. Suppose you are. The maximum operating water level (H _max ), minimum operating water level (H _min ), maintenance flow rate (S0), maximum water intake (Q _max ), and minimum water intake (Q _min ) are values for each medium-term operation period (season). Shall be registered.

モデルＢ２は、最高運用水位Ｈ_ｍａｘに基づいて貯水量の上限（以下、「上限貯水量」といい、「Ｖ_ｍａｘ」と表記する。）を算出するためのものであり、次式により表される。

モデルＢ３は、最低運用水位Ｈ_ｍｉｎに基づいて貯水量の下限（以下、「下限貯水量」といい、「Ｖ_ｍｉｎ」と表記する。）を算出するためのものであり、次式により表される。

モデルＢ４は、１日の０時から２４時（すなわち次の日の０時）の貯水量に基づいて、単位期間の開始時点から終了時点までの貯水量の差（以下、「貯水量差」といい、「ΔＶ」と表記する。）を算出するものであり、ある日付ｔの０時における貯水量をＶ_ｔとして、次式により表される。

The model storage unit 332 stores the following models B1 to B10.
Model B1 is for calculating the operational water level H based on the water storage amount V (water level calculation model), and is represented by the following equation. Note that a is a constant specific to the water storage facility.

The model B2 is for calculating the upper limit of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as “upper limit water storage amount” and referred to as “V _max ”) based on the maximum operational water level H _max and is expressed by the following equation. The

Model B3 is for calculating the lower limit of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as “lower limit water storage amount” and referred to as “V _min ”) based on the minimum operating water level H _min and is expressed by the following equation. The

Model B4 is based on the amount of stored water from 0:00 to 24:00 on the first day (that is, 0:00 on the next day). It is expressed as “ΔV”), and is expressed by the following equation, where V _t is a water storage amount at 0:00 on a certain date t.

モデルＢ６は、最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎ、最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘ、最低運転出力Ｑ０_ｍｉｎ及びＲ０に基づいて、取水量Ｑを決定するためのもの（取水量算出モデル）であり、次式により表される。

すなわち、Ｒ０が、最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎ以上であり、かつ、最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘ以下である場合には、Ｒ０が取水量Ｑとなり、Ｒ０が最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎよりも小さい場合には最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎが取水量Ｑとなり、Ｒ０が最大取水量よりも大きい場合には最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘが取水量Ｑとなる。ただし、Ｒ０が最低運転出力Ｑ０_ｍｉｎよりも小さい場合は、取水量Ｑは０となる。
モデルＢ７は、Ｒ０及び取水量Ｑに基づいて、１日に貯水施設において放流される水量（以下、「無効放流量」といい、Ｓと表記する。なお、「普通放流量」ともいう。）を算出するためのものであり、次式により表される。

モデルＢ８は、１日の終了時点における運用水位、放水位Ｈ_ｏｕｔ及び損失落差Ｈ_ｌｏｓに基づいて、有効落差ｈｎを算出するためのものであり、期間ｔの当初における運用水位をＨ_ｔとし、水位を海抜高さに変換するための所定の定数をｂとして、次式により表される。

モデルＢ９は、取水量Ｑ及び有効落差ｈｎに基づいて１日に発電される発電電力Ｐｎを算出するためのものであり、発電の変換効率に係る係数をｃ、重力加速度をｇとして、次式により表される。

モデルＢ１０は、発電電力Ｐｎに基づいて１日に発電される発電電力量Ｅｎを算出するためのもの（電力量算出モデル）であり、次式により表される。

The model B5 is for calculating a water amount (R0) obtained by subtracting the maintenance flow rate S0 and the stored water amount difference ΔV from the inflow amount R, and is represented by the following equation.

Model B6 is for determining the water intake Q based on the minimum water intake Q _min , the maximum water intake Q _max , the minimum operation output Q0 _min and R0 (water intake calculation model), and is expressed by the following equation. The

That, R0 is, and the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} or more, and equal to or less than the maximum intake amount _{Q max} is, R0 is intake amount Q, and the minimum intake if R0 is smaller than the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} The amount Q _min becomes the water intake amount Q, and when R0 is larger than the maximum water intake amount, the maximum water intake amount Q _max becomes the water intake amount Q. However, when R0 is smaller than the minimum operation output Q0 _min , the water intake Q is 0.
In model B7, the amount of water discharged in the water storage facility on the basis of R0 and the amount of water intake Q (hereinafter referred to as “invalid discharge flow rate”, expressed as S. It is also referred to as “normal discharge flow rate”). Is calculated by the following equation.

Model B8 is for calculating the effective head hn based on the operating water level at the end of the day, the discharge level H _out and the loss head H _los , and the operating water level at the beginning of the period t is H _t , The predetermined constant for converting the water level to the height above sea level is represented by the following equation, where b is a predetermined constant.

The model B9 is for calculating the generated power Pn generated on the basis of the intake water amount Q and the effective head hn. The model B9 is represented by the following equation, where c is a coefficient relating to conversion efficiency of power generation and g is a gravitational acceleration. It is represented by

Model B10 is for calculating the amount of generated power En generated per day based on the generated power Pn (power amount calculation model), and is represented by the following equation.

The optimum water level database 333 stores the water level after the optimum medium-term operation period corresponding to the season, the water level at the start of the season, and the inflow amount at the season. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the optimum water level database 333. In the present embodiment, the optimum water level database is the initial water level H _t in the season t and the inflow amount R in the season t for each season (from early January to late December) included in the long-term operation period (one year). _In association with _t , the initial water level H _{t + 1} of the next season _{t + 1} is stored.

  The planned water level database 334 stores the optimum water level at each season (hereinafter referred to as “planned water level”) in a predetermined planning period. It is assumed that the water level stored in the planned water level database 334 is read from the optimum water level database 333 and is registered before the actual operation of the water storage facility. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the planned water level database 334. As shown in the figure, the water level of each season is registered in association with the start season, end season, and start water level. The start season is the first season in a planning period, and the end season is the last season in the planning period. The starting water level is the water level at the beginning of the starting season.

  The performance database 335 stores past performance values of inflows. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the result database 335. The performance database 335 stores the actual value of the inflow amount for each season. In addition, you may make it the performance database 335 manage the performance value about specifications other than inflow.

  The predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 312 acquires a predicted value (predicted inflow amount) of the inflow amount R for each season. The predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 312 can accept input of the predicted inflow amount from, for example, a keyboard or a mouse. The predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 312 may acquire the predicted inflow amount by accessing another computer that predicts the inflow amount, or stores the actual inflow amount in the memory 302 or the storage device 303. For example, the actual inflow of the same day of the previous year may be used as the predicted inflow. Further, the predicted inflow amount may be calculated by a simulation using the actual inflow amount.

  The medium-term plan unit 313 (corresponding to the “upper limit water level calculation unit” and “optimum water level determination unit” of the present invention) creates a plan for the optimum water level for each medium-term operation period. The medium-term plan unit 313 uses the inflow amount distribution and a statistical model stored in the model storage unit 332 to be described later to create an optimal water level plan by probabilistic dynamic programming, and an optimal water level database 333 is registered. Further, the medium-term plan unit 313 obtains the distribution of the invalid discharge amount, sets the maximum operating water level lower for the season when the invalid discharge amount is large, and recalculates the optimum water level. The medium-term plan unit 313 registers the planned water level in the planned water level database 334 based on the water level registered in the optimum water level database 333. Details of the processing by the medium-term planning unit 313 will be described later.

The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 (corresponding to the “invalid discharge flow acquisition unit” of the present invention) changes the seasonal constraint condition according to the past invalid discharge flow rate. In the present embodiment, the invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 sets the invalid discharge amount predicted from the past invalid discharge amount as the upper limit value of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as “upper limit water storage amount” and expressed as “V _max ”). Subtract from The difference between the upper limit water storage amount Vmax _{, t} and the ineffective discharge flow rate S in season t is called the pocket amount. By providing the pocket amount, the water level is planned so as not to be larger than the upper limit water storage amount in the simulation described later, so that it is possible to prevent the occurrence of invalid discharge.

== Optimal water level planning process ==
Hereinafter, the optimal water level planning process by the operation support system 30 of the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing the flow of the optimal water level planning process.
The medium-term planning unit 313 reads each item information from the item storage unit 331 (S401). The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 performs adjustment processing of specification information (only the highest operational water level in the present embodiment) according to the invalid discharge flow (S402). The medium-term planning unit 313 calculates the optimum water level by simulation using the specification information (S403).

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing the flow of the specification information adjustment process. The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 reads the actual value of the inflow from the record database 335, and calculates the invalid discharge in the seasonal unit for each year (S501). It should be noted that the following equation (C1) is used for the calculation of the invalid discharge amount, instead of the above equation (B7).
Invalid discharge flow rate S = (Inflow amount R−Intake amount Q−Increased storage amount ΔV) ÷ Days (C1)

Here, the number of days is the number of days in season (for example, 10 days in early May and 11 days in late May). The inflow amount R is a value read from the performance database 335. The water intake Q is a value obtained by multiplying the maximum water intake Q _max by the number of days in the season. The increased water storage amount is a value obtained by subtracting the initial water storage amount from the water storage amount at the end of the term, and is calculated by V _{t + 1} −V _t . The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 reads the water storage amount from the performance database 335 and calculates the increased water storage amount for each season. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of the summary table 41 that stores the invalid discharge amount for each season corresponding to each year. The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 records the calculated invalid discharge flow in the tabulation table 41.

  The invalid discharge adjusting unit 314 calculates the occurrence probability of the invalid discharge calculated as described above (S502). The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 calculates a value rounded to the value for each invalid discharge unit of the specification information as an invalid discharge, counts the number of appearances corresponding to the season for each rounded invalid discharge, and calculates the occurrence probability. calculate. For example, the invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 rounds the invalid discharge amount recorded in the tabulation table 41 to a value for each invalid discharge unit by rounding off or the like. And the quotient divided by the number of columns (number of years) can be calculated as the probability of occurrence. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of the distribution table 42 that records the distribution of occurrence probabilities. The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 records the occurrence probability corresponding to the invalid discharge amount for each invalid discharge unit in the distribution table 42 in association with the season. The columns of the distribution table 42 are invalid discharge rates, and are arranged from the left in ascending order of invalid discharge rates.

  The invalid discharge adjusting unit 314 calculates the cumulative distribution of occurrence probabilities in ascending order of the invalid discharge (S503). In the case of the example of the distribution table 42 in FIG. 10, the invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 accumulates the occurrence probabilities sequentially from the left of the column for each row of the distribution table 42 to create the cumulative distribution table 43 shown in FIG. 11. In the cumulative distribution table 43, as in the distribution table 42, the columns are in ascending order of invalid discharge from the left.

  The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 sets the invalid discharge flow rate whose cumulative probability exceeds the management standard of the specification information as a threshold (S504). The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 compares the cumulative occurrence probability with the management standard in order from the left of the column of the cumulative distribution table 43 for each season, and when the occurrence probability becomes equal to or higher than the management standard, the cumulative occurrence probability The reactive discharge flow corresponding to is set as a threshold value. The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 calculates a pocket amount that is an invalid discharge flow expected in advance by multiplying the threshold value by the number of days in season (S505). In the table 44 shown in FIG. 11, the seasonal threshold, the number of period days, and the pocket amount are registered in association with each other.

The invalid discharge adjustment unit 314 calculates the upper limit water storage amount V _{max, t} by applying the maximum operating water level H _{max, t} to the above formula B2 for each season t, and the pocket amount from the calculated upper limit water storage amount V _{max, t} . Is subtracted (S506). The invalid discharge adjusting unit 314 calculates the maximum operating water level H _{max, t} based on the calculated upper limit water storage amount V _{max, t} and the formula B2 (S507).

By the above processing, the upper limit water storage amount V _{max, t} is reduced by the pocket amount, and the maximum operating water level H _{max, t} can be set low. FIG. 12 is a graph showing an example of the invalid discharge pocket amount and the upper limit water storage amount Vmax _{, t} calculated by the above processing. In the example of FIG. 12, the amount of pockets increases most from the end of June to the beginning of July, and accordingly, the upper limit water storage amount V _{max, t} decreases from the end of June to the beginning of July. Yes.

== Optimal water level calculation ==
FIG. 13 is a diagram showing the flow of optimum water level calculation. The medium-term planning unit 313 calculates the water level that maximizes the expected value of the generated power as the optimum water level. Further, the medium-term plan unit 313 registers the calculated optimum water level in the optimum water level database 333. Note that the long-term operation period (one year in this embodiment) is composed of n medium-term operation periods (season in this embodiment). That is, in this embodiment, n = 36.

The medium-term plan unit 313 sets 0 to ST indicating the stage of calculation processing (S601). The medium-term plan unit 313 increments ST (S602) and sets the cumulative value of power generation amount from the n-th season to the m-th season (hereinafter referred to as “total power generation amount”) as F _m , and the water level H is taken. All possible values, that is, values per unit water level from H _{min, m} to H _{max, m} and all values that the inflow rate R _m can take, that is, the minimum value that the inflow rate can take (hereinafter referred to as “minimum inflow amount”). ”And expressed as“ R _min ”) to a maximum value that can be taken by the inflow (hereinafter referred to as“ maximum inflow ”and expressed as“ R _max ”) (hereinafter referred to as“ R _max ”). And the value for each “unit inflow”), the accumulated power generation amount F _{n + 1} (ST, H _m , R _m ) in the ( _{n + 1} ) _th season corresponding to the stage, the water level H _m , and the inflow amount R _m It is set to 0 (S603). The medium term planning unit 313 sets n to m (S604).

The medium-term plan unit 313 sets the minimum water level H _{min, m} to the m-th season water level H _m (S605), and sets the minimum inflow rate R _min to the m-th season inflow amount R _m (S606). The inflow amount distribution acquisition unit 312 calculates the conditional probability P (R _{m + 1} | R _m ) when the inflow amount in the m-th season is R _m for all possible values of the inflow amount R _{m + 1} in the next season m + 1. Obtain (S607). The medium-term plan unit 313 changes the inflow amount R _{m + 1} and adds up the sum of the expected values of the accumulated power generation amount F _{m + 1 up to} the ( _{m + 1} ) th season ΣP (R _{m + 1} | R _m ) F _{m + 1} (ST, H _{m + 1} , R _{m + 1} ), the m-th season water level H _m , the next season water level H _{m + 1} , and the m-th season inflow amount R _m , and the generated power amount B (H _m , R _m , H _{m + 1} ) (hereinafter referred to as “calculated cumulative value”), that is, B (H _m , R _m , H _{m + 1} ) + ΣP (R _{m + 1} | R _m ) F _{m + 1} (ST, H _{m + 1} , R _{m + 1} ) determines the _{H m + 1} to the maximum, to the maximum of the calculated cumulative value _F m _(ST, H _m, and _{R m)} (S608).

Term plan unit 313 adds the unit inflow into the inflow amount _{R m} (S609), if _{R m} does not exceed the maximum inflow _{R max} (S610: NO), it repeats the processing from step S607, the not exceed lever (S610: YES), adds the unit level to _{H m} (S611). The medium-term plan unit 313 repeats the processing from step S606 if H _m does not exceed the maximum operational water level H _{max, m} (S612: NO), and decrements m if it exceeds (S612: YES) ( S613).

If m is larger than 1 (S614: NO), the medium-term planning unit 313 repeats the processing from step S605. If m becomes 1 (S614: YES), the medium-term plan unit 313 determines the total amount of power generation for the year at the stage, that is, the cumulative from the nth (late December) to the first (early January). Total value F ₁ (ST) obtained by summing generated electric power F ₁ (ST, H _m , R _m ) and total accumulated electric power F ₁ (ST-1, H _m , R _m ) for the previous stage the value _F 1 calculates (ST-1) _and, F 1 (ST) from _F 1 absolute value a predetermined threshold value divided by (ST-1) a value obtained by subtracting the _F 1 (ST-1) It is determined whether or not the cumulative amount of generated electric power by the above processing has become steady depending on whether or not it is below (S615). When the accumulated power generation amount has become steady (S615: YES), the medium-term plan unit 313 associates m, H _m , and R _m with all m, H _m , and R _m , and performs steps in the stage. H _{m + 1} determined in S608 is registered in the optimization database 333 (S616).

  As described above, the optimum water level combination is registered in the optimum water level database 333.

  According to the operation support system 30 of the present embodiment, the optimum water level can be calculated on the assumption that the upper limit water storage amount is small by the pocket amount and the maximum operation water level is low. In other words, by reducing the upper limit of the water level (stored water amount) in advance for the season when ineffective discharge is expected, the amount of water intake in the previous season can be increased. It is possible to prevent the occurrence of ineffective discharge and the amount of generated power can be maximized under the restriction.

== Plan water level registration process ==
FIG. 14 is a diagram for explaining the flow of the registered process of the planned water level by the medium-term plan unit 313.
The medium-term plan unit 313 accepts the input of the first season (start season) of the plan period to be ts (S701), and accepts the input of the last season (end season) of the plan period to be te (S702). Further, the medium-term plan unit 313 receives an input of the water level at the beginning of the start season and sets it as H _ts (S703).
Next, the predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 312 acquires a predicted value of the inflow amount R in each season from the start season ts to the end season te (S704). The medium-term plan unit 313 sets m to ts (S705), reads the next water level m + 1 stored in the optimum water level database 333, and sets the read water level to Hm _{+ 1} (S706). Then, m is incremented (S707). If m is later than te (S708: YES), _Hts to _{Hte + 1} are registered in the planned water level storage unit 235 (S709).
The planned water level is registered as described above.

== Reservoir operation ==
FIG. 15 is a diagram illustrating a flow of calculating a water level during operation of an actual water storage facility. When the actual water storage facility is operated, it is operated so that the ineffective flow rate is zero even if the optimum water level plan is deviated. That is, it calculates as follows about each season m from ts to te. The water level H _m is converted to the water storage amount V _m based on the model B1 (S721), and similarly the water level H _{m + 1} is converted to the water storage amount V _{m + 1} based on the model B1 (S722), and V _m is subtracted from V _{m + 1.} An increased water storage amount ΔV _m is calculated (S723), and an ineffective discharge flow rate S _m is calculated by subtracting the maximum water intake amount Q _{max, m} and the increased water storage amount ΔV _m from the inflow amount R _m (S724). Here, inflow R _m is the actual value during operation. When the invalid discharge flow rate S _m becomes larger than 0 (S725: YES), a value obtained by subtracting the maximum water intake amount Q _{max, m} from the inflow amount R _{m is} set as the increased water storage amount ΔV _m (S726), and the water storage amount V _m And the increased storage amount ΔV _m is set as the next seasonal storage amount V _{m + 1} (S727). The water storage amount V _{m + 1} for the next season is converted into a water level H _{m + 1} based on the model B1 (S728). If the water level H _{m + 1} exceeds the maximum operating water level H _{max, m} (S729: YES), the water level H _{m + 1} is H. _{It is set as max, m} (S730).

As described above, during actual operation, if the invalid discharge flow rate S _m is not 0, the amount of stored water increases within a range not exceeding the maximum operation water level H _{max, m} so that the invalid discharge flow rate S _m approaches 0 as much as possible. Is done. Note that the operation planning system 30 includes an operation water level output unit that performs the process of FIG. 15, and the operation water level output unit performs the operation of FIG. 15 at the time of operation in the process of FIG. The water level H _{m + 1} may be output.

  According to the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, the predicted value of the future inflow amount is used to increase the expected value of the power generation amount in the long-term operation period. Can be requested. Therefore, the operator of the water storage facility operates the water storage facility at the start of the medium-term operation period by referring to the optimum water level database 333 and using the next water level corresponding to the water level at that time as the target water level. It becomes possible to increase the amount of generated power for one year. Therefore, even if the experience of the water storage facility operator is shallow, it can be easily adjusted to the optimum water level.

  Further, according to the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, it is possible to formulate a water level plan based on objective data as compared with the case where the water level is planned based on the intuition and experience of the water storage facility operator. Further, in the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, by using the stochastic dynamic programming method, even when the predicted value of the future inflow is obtained as a probability distribution, the expected value of the generated power in the water storage facility is obtained. The optimal water level plan to be increased can be easily derived.

  Further, according to the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, the planned water level of the optimized water storage facility can be adjusted in consideration of the pocket amount so that the amount of ineffective discharge is reduced. FIGS. 16-19 is a figure explaining the difference of the ineffective flow volume with the case where a pocket amount is considered and the case where it is not considered. FIGS. 16-19 show the calculation results of the optimum water level for the upper, middle and late May of a certain fiscal year. The upper stages 81, 83, 85, and 87 are the calculation results of the optimum water level in which the adjustment process of FIG. 8 described above is omitted, and the lower stages 82, 84, 86, and 88 are the optimum results after the adjustment process of FIG. It is the calculation result of the water level. Further, Tables 811, 821, 831, 841, 851, 861, 871, and 881 “as in the operation table” included in the upper steps 81, 83, 85, and 87 and the lower steps 82, 84, 86, and 8 are shown in FIG. Tables 812, 822, 832, 842, 852, 862, 872, and 882 of “actual operation” show the cases where the process shown in FIG. 15 is performed.

FIG. 16 shows an example in May when the inflow amount was very large, and the inflow amount 813 was “6 m ³ / s” in all of upper, middle, and late. The invalid discharge rate 814 after the optimal calculation is “3.6”, but during operation, the processing shown in FIG. 15 is performed, and the invalid discharge rate 815 becomes “0.0”. “3.6” decreased from the invalid discharge 814 is added to the end-of-period water storage amount 816, and is also added to each of the initial and end-of-term water storage amounts in the middle and late periods. In the case of the example shown in FIG. 16, both the upper invalid discharge rate 817 and the lower invalid discharge rate 823 were “41.8 (t · day)”, and there was no change.

FIG. 17 shows an example in May in which the amount of inflow was smaller than in the case of FIG. 16, but was larger than usual. The amount of inflow 833 at the beginning was “4 m ³ / s”, and “ 6 m ³ / s ”. In the example of FIG. 17, the upper invalid discharge rate 834 is “24.0 (t · day)”, and the lower invalid discharge rate 843 is “21.8 (t · day)”. Therefore, in the case of the example of FIG. 17, the invalid discharge rate is reduced by 2.2 (t · day) when the adjustment process of FIG. 8 is performed.

FIG. 18 shows an example in May in which the inflow amount was a normal amount. The inflow amount 853 in the upper and middle portions is “4 m ³ / s” and the end in the end is “6 m ³ / s”. In the example of FIG. 18, the upper-stage reactive discharge flow rate 854 is “6.1 (t · day)”, and the lower-stage reactive discharge flow rate 863 is “1.8 (t · day)”. When the treatment was performed, the amount of ineffective discharge decreased by 4.3 (t · day).

FIG. 19 shows an example in May when the inflow amount was small, and the inflow amount 873 is “4 m ³ / s” in all of upper, middle, and late. In the example of FIG. 19, both the upper reactive discharge flow rate 874 and the lower reactive discharge flow rate 883 are “0.0”, and there is no change.

  In this way, by performing the optimal calculation after performing the adjustment process of FIG. 8, the ineffective discharge was not converted when the inflow amount was very large (FIG. 16) or small (FIG. 19). When the inflow amount is larger than the normal amount (FIG. 17), the invalid discharge amount is slightly reduced, and when the inflow amount is about the normal amount (FIG. 18), the invalid discharge amount is greatly reduced. Therefore, it is expected that the ineffective discharge flow is reduced as a whole by performing the optimum process after performing the adjustment process shown in FIG. 8 throughout the year. On the other hand, it is possible to perform the optimum calculation so as to increase the amount of generated power while reducing the invalid discharge flow rate.

  In addition, when the amount of invalid discharge increases, there is a risk that water increase or the like may occur in the downstream area of the water storage facility. However, as described above, according to the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, the planned water level is set so that the invalid discharge amount decreases. Therefore, safety in the downstream area can be ensured and an increase in security operations can be suppressed.

  In addition, it is known that the prediction value of the inflow amount etc. becomes higher as the prediction date is closer, and by adjusting during operation as in this embodiment, the invalid discharge rate can be reduced more accurately and reliably. It is possible to secure the safety of the downstream area. On the other hand, by performing the optimization of the water level in advance, it is possible to plan the water level only by reading the optimized water level at the time of operation.

  In the present embodiment, the operation planning system 30 is realized by a single computer, but may be realized by a plurality of computers.

  In the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, the long-term operation period is a year, and the medium-term operation period is a season. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and an arbitrary length can be set. For example, the long-term operation period may be six months or three months, and the medium-term operation period may be one month, three months, half month, one week, or the like.

  In the present embodiment, the optimum calculation shown in FIG. 13 is performed after the adjustment process shown in FIG. 8 is performed, and the water level is registered in the optimum water level database 333 and the planned water level database 334 based on the result. First, the optimum calculation is performed without performing the adjustment process shown in FIG. 8, the water level is registered in the optimum water level database 333 and the planned water level database 334, the adjustment process shown in FIG. 8 is performed, and the optimum calculation is performed again. You may make it perform. In this case, both the water level plan before and after the adjustment process can be output, so that the operator of the water storage facility can refer to both. The optimum water level database 333 and the planned water level database 334 may store both the water level plan before the adjustment process of FIG. 8 and the water level plan after the recalculation after the adjustment process.

In the present embodiment, the actual water storage value is stored in the actual database 335 and the increased water storage amount is calculated from the actual water storage value. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the optimum water level database 333 is used. Thus, the increased water storage amount may be calculated. In this case, the medium-term planning unit 313 first performs the process of FIG. 13 using the maximum operating water level (H _max ) stored in the specification storage unit 331, and registers the water level in the optimum water level database 333. Then disable discharge adjustment unit 314, for each water level _{H t,} reads the next season the water level _{H t + 1} which corresponds to the water level _{H t} and inflow _{R t} from the optimum database 333, based on the water level _{H t,} the _{H t + 1} to the model B1 Thus, the water storage amounts V _t and V _{t + 1} may be converted, and the increased water storage amount ΔV _t may be calculated from V _{t + 1} −V _t . Thereby, it is possible to cope with the case where the past water storage results are not recorded.

Further, in the present embodiment, the water intake amount Q is assumed to be the maximum water intake amount Q _max in the formula C1, but the actual water intake value is recorded in the actual result database 335 and the actual water intake amount is used. You may do it.

  Although the present embodiment has been described above, the above embodiment is intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof.

30 Operation Planning System 301 CPU
302 Memory 303 Storage Device 304 Communication Interface 305 Input Device 306 Output Device 311 Specification Input Unit 312 Predicted Inflow Amount Acquisition Unit 313 Medium Term Planning Unit 314 Invalid Discharge Adjustment Unit 331 Specification Storage Unit 332 Model Storage Unit 333 Optimal Water Level Database 334 Planed Water Level Database 335 Results database

Claims (11)

A system for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation,
Based on the water level of the water storage facility at the start of the unit period constituting the predetermined operation period, the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period, and the inflow amount in the unit period, the hydropower generation A model storage unit for storing a power amount model for calculating the amount of power generated in a unit period, and a water storage amount model for calculating the water level based on the water storage amount of the water storage facility;
A specification storage unit that stores upper limit water storage amount determination information that is information for calculating the upper limit water storage amount of the water storage facility for each unit period;
An invalid flow rate acquisition unit that acquires an evaluation value of an invalid flow rate that is discharged without being used for the hydropower generation in the past unit period;
For each unit period, the upper limit water storage amount is calculated based on the upper limit water storage amount determination information, a value corresponding to the evaluation value of the invalid discharge is subtracted from the upper limit water storage amount, and the upper limit for each unit period. An upper limit water level calculating unit that calculates the upper limit water level for each unit period by applying a stored water amount to the stored water amount model;
For each unit period included in the operation period, a predicted inflow amount acquisition unit that acquires a predicted value of the inflow amount;
For each unit period, the water level at the start time of the unit period and the water level at the end time of the unit period are changed within a range equal to or lower than the upper limit water level corresponding to the unit period, and the inflow amount in the unit period is predetermined. And calculating the power amount by applying the changed water level and the changed inflow amount to the power amount model, and calculating an evaluation value according to the calculated power amount. And an optimum water level determination unit that determines a combination of the water levels that maximizes the total of the evaluation values;
A water storage facility operation support system characterized by comprising: The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 1,
A record database for storing the actual value of the inflow and the amount of stored water in the past unit period;
The invalid discharge flow rate acquisition unit acquires the actual value of the inflow amount and the actual value of the stored water amount from the actual result database for each unit period, calculates the increase amount of the stored water amount, and acquires the acquired inflow amount. Calculating a value obtained by subtracting the maximum amount of water given to the hydroelectric generator during the unit period and the increase in the amount of stored water as the evaluation value of the invalid discharge flow rate from the actual value of
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 1,
A record database for storing the record value of the inflow in the past unit period;
In association with the water level and the inflow amount, an optimal water level database that stores a water level at which the sum of the evaluation values is maximum,
With
The optimum water level determination unit determines a combination of the water levels within a range equal to or less than a predetermined upper limit water level, and associates each water level included in the determined water level combination with the water level and the inflow amount. Register in the water level database,
The invalid discharge rate acquisition unit
For each unit period, obtain the actual value of the inflow from the actual database,
The predetermined water level is a first water level corresponding to the first unit period, and for each unit period, the water level corresponding to the first water level and the actual value of the inflow amount from the optimum water level database is as follows: Read out as the second water level corresponding to the unit period, and calculate the amount of increase in the stored water amount during the unit period based on the difference between the first and second water levels and the stored water amount model, and the obtained inflow amount The value obtained by subtracting the maximum amount of water given to the hydroelectric generator in the unit period and the increase in the stored water amount from the actual value of the unit is calculated as the invalid discharge amount generated in the unit period,
The upper limit water level calculation unit calculates the upper limit water level for each unit period,
The optimum water level determination unit determines the combination of the water levels again within a range equal to or lower than the upper limit water level for each unit period;
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
The upper limit water level calculation unit calculates a rounded value obtained by rounding the evaluation value of the invalid discharge flow into a predetermined unit, calculates an appearance frequency of the rounded value, and subtracts the upper limit water storage amount according to the appearance frequency. ,
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 4,
The invalid discharge rate acquisition unit acquires an evaluation value of the invalid discharge rate corresponding to each of the past operation period and unit period,
The upper limit water level calculation unit calculates the appearance frequency of the rounded value for each unit period, calculates the cumulative appearance frequency in ascending order of the rounded value, and the rounding at which the cumulative appearance frequency is equal to or greater than a predetermined reference value. Subtracting the value from the upper limit water storage,
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 5,
The upper limit water level calculation unit calculates the occurrence probability of the rounded value for each unit period, calculates the cumulative occurrence probability in ascending order of the rounded value, and the rounded value at which the cumulative occurrence probability is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. Subtracting from the upper limit water storage amount,
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to any one of claims 1 to 6,
The optimum water level determination unit changes the water level at the start time of the unit period from a predetermined lowest water level to a predetermined highest water level every predetermined step,
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 7,
The optimum water level determination unit changes the inflow amount in the unit period for each predetermined unit amount from a predetermined minimum amount to a predetermined maximum amount.
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 8,
The optimum water level determination unit determines a combination of the water levels that maximizes the sum of the evaluation values by probabilistic dynamic programming,
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by A method for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydropower generation,
A computer comprising a CPU and a memory
Based on the water level of the water storage facility at the start of the unit period constituting the predetermined operation period, the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period, and the inflow amount in the unit period, the hydropower generation Storing in the memory a power amount model for calculating the amount of power generated in a unit period and a water storage amount model for calculating the water level based on the water storage amount of the water storage facility;
Storing upper limit water storage amount determination information, which is information for calculating the upper limit water storage amount of the water storage facility for each unit period, in the memory;
Obtaining an evaluation value of an ineffective discharge discharged without being used for the hydropower generation in the past unit period,
For each unit period, the upper limit water storage amount is calculated based on the upper limit water storage amount determination information, a value corresponding to the evaluation value of the invalid discharge is subtracted from the upper limit water storage amount, and the upper limit for each unit period. Apply the water storage amount to the water storage model, calculate the upper limit water level for each unit period,
For each unit period included in the operation period, obtain a predicted value of the inflow amount,
For each unit period, the water level at the start time of the unit period and the water level at the end time of the unit period are changed within a range equal to or lower than the upper limit water level corresponding to the unit period, and the inflow amount in the unit period is predetermined. And calculating the power amount by applying the changed water level and the changed inflow amount to the power amount model, and calculating an evaluation value according to the calculated power amount. And determining the combination of the water levels that maximizes the sum of the evaluation values,
Water storage facility operation support method characterized by A program for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydropower generation,
In a computer equipped with a CPU and memory,
Based on the water level of the water storage facility at the start of the unit period constituting the predetermined operation period, the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period, and the inflow amount in the unit period, the hydropower generation Storing in the memory an electric energy model for calculating the electric energy generated in a unit period, and a water storage model for calculating the water level based on the water storage amount of the water storage facility;
Storing upper limit water storage amount determination information, which is information for calculating the upper limit water storage amount of the water storage facility for each unit period, in the memory;
Obtaining an evaluation value of an ineffective flow rate that is discharged without being used for the hydropower generation in the past unit period;
For each unit period, the upper limit water storage amount is calculated based on the upper limit water storage amount determination information, a value corresponding to the evaluation value of the invalid discharge is subtracted from the upper limit water storage amount, and the upper limit for each unit period. Applying a water storage amount to the water storage model to calculate an upper limit water level for each unit period; and
Obtaining a predicted value of the inflow amount for each unit period included in the operation period;
For each unit period, the water level at the start time of the unit period and the water level at the end time of the unit period are changed within a range equal to or lower than the upper limit water level corresponding to the unit period, and the inflow amount in the unit period is predetermined. And calculating the power amount by applying the changed water level and the changed inflow amount to the power amount model, and calculating an evaluation value according to the calculated power amount. And determining the combination of the water levels that maximizes the sum of the evaluation values;
A program for running

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