JP5889096B2 - Damage calculation device, damage calculation method and damage calculation program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for estimating damage to an information system when a disaster such as an earthquake occurs.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has proposed “Business Continuity Plan Formulation Guidelines”. Here, BCM (Business Continuity Management) refers to the entire management system from formulation to operation and review of BCP (Business Continuity Plan). Specifically, (1) business impact analysis, (2) BCP formulation, (3) BCM operation, (4) effectiveness verification, and continuous improvement (1) to (4) are repeated in sequence. ing.
In particular, the flow from business impact analysis to BCP formulation begins with business impact analysis (prioritization of business continuity and recovery, bottleneck identification, target recovery time setting), then risk analysis, and then triggered. It is said that the criteria will be clarified and BCP will be formulated.

  With regard to risk analysis technology, Patent Literature 1 discloses a technology for calculating damage to facilities due to earthquakes using the earthquake resistance grade of the facilities as a parameter.

JP 2007-148547 A

According to the disaster countermeasure evaluation method described in Patent Document 1, it is not possible to evaluate the risk of a configuration that is distributed and deployed at a plurality of bases like an information system. Therefore, it cannot be shown whether the method selected as a disaster countermeasure is appropriate.
An object of the present invention is to make it possible to select an optimum method from a plurality of disaster countermeasure methods by analyzing the disaster risk of an information system distributed in a plurality of locations and quantitatively indicating the result. And

The damage calculation apparatus according to the present invention is:
It is a damage calculation device that calculates the damage value at the time of disaster for an information system composed of multiple elements,
An element information storage unit for storing the connection relation and dependency relation of each element;
An evaluation value storage unit that stores an evaluation value per unit period of each business performed using the information system;
An impact information storage unit for storing an element stop period in which each element cannot be used when a predetermined disaster occurs;
For each business, based on the connection relationship stored in the element information storage unit, the element that connects from the use side element that provides the service to the providing side element that provides the service is specified as a connection element, and the element information An element specifying unit that specifies, as a dependency element, an element on which the connection element depends, based on the dependency relationship stored in the storage unit;
When the disaster occurs from the element stop period of the target element stored in the influence information storage unit for each job, with the connection element and the dependency element specified by the element specifying unit as target elements, A stop information calculation unit for calculating a business stop period to be stopped;
From the business suspension period calculated by the suspension information calculation unit and the evaluation value stored by the evaluation value storage unit, the loss value when the disaster occurs for each business is calculated, and the loss value for each business is calculated. And a damage calculating unit that calculates a damage value of the information system when the disasters occur in total.

  In the damage calculation apparatus according to the present invention, it is possible to calculate the damage value for the information system. The disaster risk of the information system is obtained quantitatively from the calculated damage value, and an appropriate method can be selected from a plurality of disaster countermeasure methods.

1 is a configuration diagram of a disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100 according to Embodiment 1. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the operation of the disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment. It is explanatory drawing of a resource definition, and is a figure which shows the example which defined the structure of the on-premises type information system. It is explanatory drawing of a resource definition, and is a figure which shows the example which defined the structure at the time of moving the workflow server and authentication authorization server of the on-premises type information system shown in FIG. 3 to a data center. The figure which shows the information of the business about a physical user. The figure which shows the information of the business about a logical user. Explanatory drawing of business definition. Explanatory drawing of the disaster made into evaluation object, and the collection method of disaster information. Explanatory drawing of disaster information after converting into damage scale corresponding to location. The figure which shows the assumed damage of each element for every damage scale (seismic intensity) of an earthquake. Explanatory drawing of damage scale (seismic intensity) of △△ earthquake calculated according to location. Explanatory drawing of the scale of damage (seismic intensity) of a △△ earthquake that considered disaster countermeasures. △△ The figure which shows the single stop rate of each element after the earthquake occurrence. △△ The figure which shows the real stop rate in consideration of the dependency relation of each element after the earthquake occurrence. △△ Diagram showing the outage rate of each business after the earthquake. The figure which shows the amount of damage about each business. The figure which shows the risk about the information system which moved some elements to the data center. The figure which shows the risk information of the on-premise type | mold structure system and the structure system which moved some elements to the data center. The figure which shows an example of the hardware constitutions of the disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of a disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100 (damage calculation apparatus) according to the first embodiment.
The disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100 includes a resource management unit 10 (element information storage unit), a business management unit 20 (evaluation value storage unit), a disaster information management unit 30 (disaster information storage unit), and an impact management unit 40 (impact information storage unit). ) And a risk analysis unit 50. The risk analysis unit 50 includes a damage calculation unit 51, a stop information calculation unit 52, an element identification unit 53, a damage calculation unit 54, and a risk output unit 55.

The resource management unit 10 causes a user of the information system to input a resource definition indicating a connection relation and dependency relation of elements constituting the information system to be evaluated. Then, the resource management unit 10 stores the input resource definition in the storage device. Here, the elements are users, servers, networks, facilities, infrastructure facilities, and the like.
The resource management unit 10 may provide the user with a setting screen for defining the information system model and allow the user to input the resource definition, or allow the user to input a file in which the resource definition is described. .

The business management unit 20 allows a user of the information system to input a business definition for each business performed using the information system. The business definition includes a usage-side element that provides a service, a providing-side element that provides a service, and sales (an example of an evaluation value). Then, the task management unit 20 stores the input task definition in the storage device.
The business management unit 20 may provide a user with a setting screen for setting a business definition for each business, and allow the user to input each information, or allow the user to input a file in which the business definition is described. Good. If necessary, the business management unit 20 may acquire a resource definition from the resource management unit 10 and provide it to the user.

  For each disaster (earthquake, tsunami, etc.), the disaster information management unit 30 acquires disaster information indicating the probability of occurrence and the scale of damage in the event of occurrence from an external site such as a local government and stores it in a storage device.

  The impact management unit 40 acquires the disaster information stored by the disaster information management unit 30, and assumes the damage for each element for each disaster and damage scale indicated by the disaster information (in the case of an earthquake, seismic intensity 5, seismic intensity 6, etc.) Is input to the administrator of the disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100. And the impact management part 40 memorize | stores the assumed damage about each element in a memory | storage device for every inputted disaster and damage scale. Here, the assumed damage is an element stop ratio that is a ratio at which an element cannot be used and an element stop period that is a period during which the element cannot be used.

The risk analysis unit 50 calculates a stop rate of each element when each disaster occurs based on the information stored by each management unit, and calculates a damage amount (an example of a loss value) in each business. And the risk analysis part 50 calculates the risk of the information system with respect to a disaster using the calculated damage amount and the probability of occurrence of each disaster.
The risk analysis unit 50 notifies the user of the calculated risk. At this time, the construction cost and operation cost (cost information) of the information system managed by the administrator of the disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100 may be notified to the user together with the risk.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of the disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment.
(S101: Resource definition processing)
The resource management unit 10 causes a user of the information system to input a resource definition.
The resource management unit 10 classifies elements constituting the information system into users, terminals, servers, networks, facilities, and infrastructures, and inputs connection relationships and dependency relationships as resource definitions. Note that the user and the terminal are defined as one set without defining a specific instance if the connection relationship does not change. For other servers, networks, facilities, and infrastructure, specific instances are defined, and connection relationships and dependency relationships of each element are defined. Specific instances of servers, networks, facilities, and infrastructures may be grouped in predetermined units to define connection relationships and dependency relationships.
The resource management unit 10 defines not only the current method but also other assumed methods for the information system configuration method. For example, when the current state is an on-premises type information system, not only the on-premises type information system but also an information system when some elements are moved to the data center is defined.

  3 and 4 are explanatory diagrams of resource definition. 3 and 4, the solid line represents the connection relationship, and the broken line arrow represents the dependency relationship in which the reference source depends on the reference destination.

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example in which the configuration of an on-premises information system is defined.
Since the user operates the terminal, the user and the terminal are connected. The terminal, mail server, workflow server, and authentication / authorization server are connected to the in-house network. Since the workflow server does not operate without the result of the authentication authorization by the authentication authorization server, it depends on the authentication authorization server. Since the terminal, the in-house network, the mail server, the workflow server, and the authentication / authorization server exist in the ABC building (facility), they depend on the ABC building. ABC building equipment does not operate without electric power, and therefore depends on electrical equipment (infrastructure).

FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example in which a configuration when the workflow server and the authentication / authorization server of the on-premises information system illustrated in FIG. 3 are moved to the data center is defined.
The in-house network is connected to the local network via the wide area network. The workflow server and the authentication / authorization server are connected to the local network. The local network, the workflow server, and the authentication / authorization server depend on the data center because they exist in the data center (facility).
Here, it is assumed that the facility of the data center has a private power generation device. In this case, since the infrastructure power facility can operate even when it becomes inoperable, it does not depend on the power facility.

  Although not represented in FIGS. 3 and 4, location information is set as an attribute of each element. The location information is specified by a unit such as a municipality, a unit obtained by dividing an area into meshes, or a latitude and longitude. When straddling a plurality of regions as in a wide area network, a plurality of attributes are given as locations. The network element itself may be divided and defined as a configuration in which a plurality of networks are connected.

  Further, when a disaster countermeasure is applied to an element, the disaster countermeasure that has been taken and the effect of the disaster countermeasure are defined as attributes. For example, when the facility of the data center has a seismic isolation structure, the seismic isolation structure and the earthquake suppression rate by the seismic isolation structure are defined as attributes.

(S102: Business definition processing)
The business management unit 20 allows a user of the information system to input a business definition.
The business management unit 20 organizes each business from the viewpoint of a service provided by the information system, and inputs a use-side element that receives the service and a supply-side element that provides the service. In addition, the business management unit 20 allows the user to input sales for each business. In addition, the business management unit 20 inputs, for each business, whether or not there is an alternative business that can be executed without using an information system, and an efficiency reduction rate that indicates a rate of reduction in business efficiency when switching to the alternative business. .
In addition, although the case where a user becomes a utilization side element can be considered, the user may be in charge of a plurality of tasks. Therefore, when the usage-side element is a user, the business management unit 20 defines a user who performs each business as a logical user representing one user, not a physical user representing each user. Even if it is an element other than a user, when one element is in charge of a plurality of tasks, each element is defined as a logical element instead of a physical element.

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating business information about a physical user.
Each physical user performs at least one of business 1 and business 2 and increases sales. Here, there are three physical users who perform business 1, Sato, Takanashi, and Tachibana, and there are five physical users that perform business 2, Takanashi, Tanaka, Tachibana, Yoshizawa, and Saito.

FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating business information about a logical user. FIG. 6 shows an example of redefining the business information about the physical user shown in FIG. 5 to the business information about the logical user.
The logical users are a user 1 who performs business 1 and a user 2 who performs business 2. That is, the user 1 is a logical user composed of physical users Sato, Takanashi, and Tachibana, and the user 2 is composed of physical users Takanashi, Tanaka, Tachibana, Yoshizawa, and Saito. A logical user. Here, for example, Takanashi, who is a physical user, performs both business 1 and business 2. Therefore, Takanashi who is a physical user is included in both the user 1 and the user 2.
Note that the sales of user 1 in FIG. 6 are the total sales of business 1 in FIG. 5, and the sales of user 2 in FIG. 6 are the total of sales of business 2 in FIG.

FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram of the business definition.
As described above, in the business definition, for each business, a use side element, a provider side element, sales, presence / absence of alternative business, and efficiency reduction rate are defined.
Here, for business 1, the user side element is the user 1, the provider side element is the workflow server, and the sales are 400,000 yen / day. In business 2, the user side element is user 2, the provider side element is a mail server, and sales are 1 million yen / day. Further, here, it is defined that the work 1 can be replaced with paper when the service is stopped, and the efficiency is reduced by 50%.

Although not shown in FIG. 7, for example, when there are a plurality of servers as a service providing side and the service can be provided by any of the servers, a plurality of servers are defined as providing side elements.
Note that there may be a case where service cannot be provided unless all of the plurality of servers are operating. In this case, as described in the resource definition, the definition may be made based on the dependency relationship between the elements, and it is not necessary to define the business definition.

(S103: Disaster information collection process)
The disaster information management unit 30 determines in advance a disaster to be evaluated and a disaster information collection method for the disaster. Then, the disaster information management unit 30 collects the disaster information according to the determined method, and converts the collected disaster information into a damage scale corresponding to the location set by the resource management unit 10.

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of a disaster to be evaluated and a disaster information collection method.
Here, earthquakes, tsunamis, meteorological disasters (wind and flood damage, earth and sand disasters, snow damages, lightning strikes), eruptions, and meteorites are raised as disasters to be evaluated. For example, for earthquakes, tsunamis, storms and floods, disaster information can be automatically collected from local government websites, and other disasters cannot be automatically collected.
For example, the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion has released long-term evaluations of trench-type earthquakes and long-term evaluations of active fault-type earthquakes, and obtains information such as the frequency of earthquakes and the extent of disaster damage (seismic intensity) at various locations. be able to. In addition, hazard maps and other information are published by local governments regarding storm and flood damage information. The disaster information that cannot be automatically collected may be input by the administrator of the disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100.

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram of disaster information after conversion into a damage scale corresponding to the location. FIG. 9 shows disaster information about an earthquake as an example.
In the disaster information after conversion to the damage scale corresponding to the location, for each earthquake name which is the type of earthquake, the probability of occurrence (here, the probability within 30 years) and the damage scale (seismic intensity) for each location And are defined.
In addition, when converting to the damage scale corresponding to the location, the average value or the maximum value of the disaster class for the location area may be set as the damage scale of the location.

(S104: Impact definition process)
The impact management unit 40 causes the administrator to set the assumed damage of each element for each disaster and damage scale to be evaluated. As described above, the assumed damage is an element stop ratio that is a ratio at which an element cannot be used and an element stop period that is a period during which the element cannot be used.
The values of element stop ratio and element stop time are set with reference to past statistics and disaster prediction. Regarding equipment, if there is information that is disclosed by the vendor or the like, it is set with reference to that information.

FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating the assumed damage of each element for each scale of earthquake damage (seismic intensity). In FIG. 10, each element is grouped for each type and the assumed damage is shown.
For example, if an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7 occurs, the user will be unable to work for 2 days due to an injury, etc., and if an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or greater occurs, the user will not be able to work for 2 days due to an injury. When an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or less occurs, 15% of the injuries etc. are set so that work cannot be performed for 2 days.
Similarly, for other factors, if an earthquake of each seismic intensity occurs, what percentage is set to be unavailable for how many days is set.

Next, the risk analysis unit 50 executes the following loop 1 (S105 to S108) for each configuration method of the information system defined in S101. That is, here, the risk analysis unit 50 executes the following loop 1 for the on-premises information system and the information system in which some elements are moved to the data center.
Moreover, the risk analysis part 50 performs the loop 2 (S105-S107) about each individual disaster in the loop 1. FIG. That is, here, the risk analysis unit 50 executes the loop 2 for earthquakes, tsunamis, weather disasters (wind and flood damage, earth and sand disasters, snow damage, lightning strikes), eruptions, and meteorites. For example, in the case of an earthquake, the risk analysis unit 50 executes loop 2 for each earthquake type (Nemuro-oki earthquake, Sanriku-oki northern earthquake,...) Shown in FIG.

(S105: Damage calculation processing)
The damage calculation unit 51 of the risk analysis unit 50 calculates the damage scale of each element for each disaster using the processing device.
The damage calculation unit 51 first specifies the damage scale according to the location of the element, and then calculates the damage scale according to the disaster countermeasure.

FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram of the damage magnitude (seismic intensity) of the ΔΔ earthquake calculated according to the location. FIG. 11 shows the damage scale for an information system in which some elements are moved to the data center.
For each element, the damage calculation unit 51 specifies the damage scale according to the location defined in the resource definition defined in S101 from the disaster information collected in S103. Here, the location of the element is assumed to be divided into Tokyo and Kanagawa. As shown in FIG. 9, the damage scale of the element whose location is Tokyo is seismic intensity 7, and the damage scale of the element whose location is Kanagawa has a seismic intensity 6 or higher.
Here, the location of the element and the area of the disaster information are both expressed in units of prefectures, but the unit of the element location is more detailed (detailed) than the unit of the area of the disaster information There is also. For example, while the area of disaster information is a prefecture unit, the location of the element may be expressed in latitude and longitude. In this case, the damage scale may be specified depending on which area of the disaster information contains the location of the element.

FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram of the scale of damage (seismic intensity) of a ΔΔ earthquake in which disaster countermeasures are taken into account. FIG. 12 shows the damage scale for an information system in which some elements are moved to the data center, as in FIG.
For each element, the damage calculation unit 51 discounts the damage scale from the damage scale calculated according to the location according to the applied disaster countermeasures. Here, since the facility of the data center has a seismic isolation structure, the damage scale of the data center and the workflow server, the authentication authorization server, and the local network depending on the data center is discounted by one stage.

(S106: Stop information calculation process)
The stop information calculation unit 52 of the risk analysis unit 50 uses the processing device to specify the stop rate (single stop rate) of each element alone for each unit time after the occurrence of the disaster for each disaster. From the stop rate, calculate the stop rate (substantial stop rate) considering the dependency of each element, and calculate the stop rate of each business from the actual stop rate of each element.

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing the single stop rate of each element after the occurrence of the ΔΔ earthquake. FIG. 13 shows the single stop rate corresponding to the damage scale calculated as shown in FIG.
The stop information calculation unit 52 identifies, for each element, the assumed damage according to the damage scale calculated in S105 from the assumed damage defined in S104. Here, the outage rate every day after the occurrence of the disaster is specified.
For example, as shown in FIG. 10, if the user has a seismic intensity of 6 or more, the element stop ratio is 30% and the element stop period is two days. Therefore, for the user, the single stop rate on the first and second days after the occurrence of the earthquake is 30%, and the single stop rate on and after the third day is 0%.
For example, in the case of a workflow server, since the type is a server, as shown in FIG. 10, when the seismic intensity is 6 or higher, the element stop ratio is 15% and the element stop period is one day. Therefore, for the workflow server, the single stop rate on the first day after the occurrence of the earthquake is 15%, and the single stop rate on the second and subsequent days is 0%.

FIG. 14 is a diagram showing a real stop rate in consideration of the dependency of each element after the occurrence of the ΔΔ earthquake. FIG. 14 shows a real stop rate corresponding to the single stop rate specified as shown in FIG.
The stop information calculation unit 52 calculates a real stop rate indicating a ratio in which each element is not substantially available in consideration of the dependency relationship between the elements.
For example, in the case of a mail server, as shown in FIG. 4, the mail server depends on the ABC building, and the ABC building depends on the electrical equipment. That is, even if the mail server itself can be used, the mail server is not practically usable unless the ABC building and the electrical equipment are available. Considering the first day after the occurrence of the earthquake, as shown in FIG. 13, the mail server single stop rate is 15%, the ABC building single stop rate is 1%, and the electrical equipment single stop rate is 50%. Therefore, the actual stop rate of the mail server is “1−0.85 × 0.99 × 0.5 = 0.58 (= 58%)”.

FIG. 15 is a diagram showing the stop rate of each business after the occurrence of the ΔΔ earthquake. FIG. 15 shows a real stop rate corresponding to the real stop rate specified as shown in FIG.
The stop information calculation unit 52 calculates the stop rate of each job from the actual stop rate of each element calculated as shown in FIG.
At this time, the element specifying unit 53 of the risk analyzing unit 50 specifies all elements that connect the use side element and the providing side element for each business according to the connection relationship between the elements defined in S101. For example, in the case of business 1, as shown in FIG. 7, the use side element is the user 1, and the providing side element is the workflow server. Therefore, in FIG. 4, a user, a terminal, an in-house network, a wide area network, a local network, and a workflow server that exist on a path connecting the user and the workflow server with a solid line are specified.
All the elements connecting the use side element and the providing side element operate, and the business can be executed. Therefore, the stop information calculation unit 52 calculates the work stop rate from the stop rates of all the specified elements. For example, in the case of business 1, when considering the first day after the occurrence of the earthquake, as shown in FIG. 14, the real outage rate of the user is 30%, the real outage rate of the terminal is 65%, and the real outage rate of the in-house network is 52%, the real network outage rates are 52% and 53%, the local network real outage rate is 4%, and the workflow server real outage rate is 28%. Therefore, the stop rate of the business 1 is “1−0.70 × 0.35 × 0.48 × 0.48 × 0.47 × 0.96 × 0.72≈0.98 (98%)”. .

(S107: Damage amount calculation process)
The damage calculation unit 54 of the risk analysis unit 50 calculates the amount of damage for each operation for each unit time after the occurrence of the disaster by the processing device. And the damage calculation part 54 totals the damage amount which generate | occur | produces after a disaster occurrence about all the operations performed using an information system, and calculates the total damage amount at the time of a disaster occurrence.

FIG. 16 is a diagram showing the amount of damage for each business. FIG. 16 shows the amount of damage corresponding to the suspension rate of each business calculated as shown in FIG.
The damage calculation unit 54 calculates the amount of damage by multiplying the sales of each business defined in S102 by the suspension rate of each business calculated in S107. Further, when there is an alternative work, the damage calculation unit 54 corrects the damage amount by multiplying the calculated loss amount by the efficiency reduction rate.
For example, in the case of business 1, as shown in FIG. 7, since the daily sales are 400,000 yen, the amount of damage on the first day after the occurrence of the earthquake is “400,000 × 98% = 39.2 million”. It becomes. Since business 1 has an alternative business and the efficiency reduction rate is 50%, the amount of damage on the first day after the occurrence of the earthquake is “39.2 million yen x 50% = 19.6 million yen” It becomes.

The damage calculation unit 54 calculates the total damage amount at the time of the occurrence of the ΔΔ earthquake by summing all the calculated damage amounts.
Here, since the amount of damage after the third day for both operations 1 and 2 is 0 yen, the total amount of damage for the first and second days of operations 1 and 2 is totaled to be 178. Calculated as 20,000 yen.

(S108: Risk calculation process)
The damage calculation unit 54 calculates the risk of the information system by totaling the total damage amount calculated for each individual disaster by the processing device and the sum of the individual disaster occurrence probabilities.

FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating risks associated with an information system in which some elements are moved to a data center.
The damage calculation unit 54 calculates the risk for each individual disaster by multiplying the probability of occurrence by the total amount of damage when it occurs. As for the occurrence probability, FIG. 9 shows the occurrence probability within 30 years, but here it is converted into the probability per year. For example, in the case of a △△ earthquake, the probability of occurrence per year is 2% and the total damage amount is 178.2 million yen, so the risk is “0.02 × 178220,000 yen = 3. 60,000 yen / year ".
The damage calculation unit 54 calculates the risk of the information system by summing up the risks calculated for each individual disaster.
Although not shown in FIG. 17, for a local disaster such as a lightning strike, the occurrence frequency and loss at the time of occurrence are calculated for each location and calculated as a risk.

(S109: Risk assessment process)
The risk output unit 55 uses other information (for example, the maximum loss at the time of occurrence, the maximum recovery time, the cost for constructing the information system of the configuration method) for the risk of the information system for each configuration method calculated in S108. Together with costs for operation) and output to the user as risk information.
It is desirable to convert the cost for constructing the information system as, for example, the expenditure per unit period such as the depreciation cost of the equipment.

FIG. 18 is a diagram illustrating risk information of an on-premises configuration method and a configuration method in which some elements are moved to a data center.
For each configuration method, by providing the user with the maximum loss at the time of occurrence, the maximum recovery time, etc. along with the risk, the user can select an appropriate method from among the information system construction methods.

  As described above, the disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100 according to Embodiment 1 can calculate a damage value for an information system. And the disaster risk of an information system can be obtained quantitatively from the calculated damage value, and an appropriate method can be selected from a plurality of disaster countermeasure methods.

FIG. 19 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of the disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100.
As illustrated in FIG. 19, the disaster countermeasure evaluation apparatus 100 includes a CPU 911 (also referred to as a central processing unit, a central processing unit, a processing unit, an arithmetic unit, a microprocessor, a microcomputer, and a processor) that executes a program. . The CPU 911 is connected to the ROM 913, the RAM 914, the liquid crystal display screen 412, the keyboard 902 (K / B), the communication board 915, and the magnetic disk device 920 via the bus 912, and controls these hardware devices. Instead of the magnetic disk device 920, a storage device such as an optical disk device or a memory card read / write device may be used. The magnetic disk device 920 is connected via a predetermined fixed disk interface.

  An operating system 921 (OS), a window system 922, a program group 923, and a file group 924 are stored in the magnetic disk device 920 or the ROM 913. The programs in the program group 923 are executed by the CPU 911, the operating system 921, and the window system 922.

The program group 923 includes functions described as “resource management unit 10”, “business management unit 20”, “disaster information management unit 30”, “impact management unit 40”, “risk analysis unit 50”, etc. in the above description. Software and programs for executing and other programs are stored. The program is read and executed by the CPU 911.
In the file group 924, information, data, signal values, variable values, and parameters such as “resource definition”, “business definition”, “disaster information”, “expected damage”, and “evaluation result” in the above description are “ It is stored as each item of “database”. The “database” is stored in a recording medium such as a disk or a memory. Information, data, signal values, variable values, and parameters stored in a storage medium such as a disk or memory are read out to the main memory or cache memory by the CPU 911 via a read / write circuit, and extracted, searched, referenced, compared, and calculated. Used for the operation of the CPU 911 such as calculation / processing / output / printing / display. Information, data, signal values, variable values, and parameters are temporarily stored in the main memory, cache memory, and buffer memory during the operation of the CPU 911 for extraction, search, reference, comparison, calculation, calculation, processing, output, printing, and display. Is remembered.

  In addition, what is described as “to part” in the above description may be “to circuit”, “to device”, “to device”, “to means”, and “to function”. It may be “step”, “˜procedure”, “˜processing”. Further, what is described as “˜device” and “˜terminal” may be “˜circuit”, “˜device”, “˜means”, “˜function”, and “˜step”, “ ~ Procedure "," ~ process ". That is, what is described as “˜unit” may be realized by firmware stored in the ROM 913. Alternatively, only software, hardware such as elements, devices, substrates, and wirings, a combination of software and hardware, or a combination of firmware may be used. Firmware and software are stored in a recording medium such as ROM 913 as a program. The program is read by the CPU 911 and executed by the CPU 911. That is, the program causes a computer or the like to function as the “˜unit” described above. Alternatively, the computer or the like is caused to execute the procedures and methods of “to part” described above.

  10 resource management unit, 20 business management unit, 30 disaster information management unit, 40 impact management unit, 50 risk analysis unit, 51 damage calculation unit, 52 stop information calculation unit, 53 element identification unit, 54 damage calculation unit, 55 risk output Department.

Claims (6)

It is a damage calculation device that calculates the damage value at the time of disaster for an information system composed of multiple elements,
An element information storage unit for storing the connection relation and dependency relation of each element;
For each work performed using the information system, the use-side element that provides the service, the providing-side element that provides the service, the evaluation value per unit period , and the work without using the information system When there is an alternative means that can be implemented, an evaluation value storage unit that stores an efficiency reduction rate that is a rate at which the efficiency decreases when the business is executed using the alternative means ;
When a predetermined disaster, and the each element is the element stops ratio that can not be used, effect information storage section in which the disaster is stored for each unit period after the occurrence,
The aforementioned operations, based on the connection relation in which the element information storage unit and stored by the element in which the evaluation value storage section is connected up to the use-side element or we provide side element stored, in operation the execution of the business with it are identified as the connection element is an element necessary to have, based on dependencies that the element information storage unit and stored by the elements which the connecting element is dependent, said connecting element is an element necessary to operate An element identification part identified as a dependent element;
For each unit period after the occurrence of the disaster, from the element stop ratio of the target element stored in the influence information storage unit for each job, with the connection element and the dependent element specified by the element specifying unit as target elements In addition, a stop information calculation unit that calculates a stoppage rate of the stoppage of the task,
For each business, the business suspension ratio calculated by the suspension information calculation unit for each unit period is multiplied by the evaluation value stored by the evaluation value storage unit, and if there is the alternative means, the efficiency reduction rate is further multiplied. value by summing was, calculated damage value of the information system when the business damage value when the disaster occurs calculated for the disaster by summing the damage value for each operation occurs A damage calculation device comprising a damage calculation unit. The damage calculation device further includes:
A disaster information storage unit that stores scale information indicating the scale of damage for each position when the disaster occurs,
The element information storage unit stores position information indicating the position of each element,
The effect information storage unit, for each of the scale of damage, store the previous Symbol element stop percentage,
The stop information calculation unit for the object element specifies the scale information corresponding to the position where the positional information indicates, using a previous SL elements stop rate that corresponds to the scale of damage indicated by the specified scale information, wherein The damage calculation apparatus according to claim 1 , wherein a business stop ratio is calculated. The element information storage unit stores disaster intensity information indicating the intensity of the disaster for each element,
The stop information calculation unit, wherein the target element, in accordance with the intensity indicated by the disaster intensity information, the converting the scale of damage, by using a pre-Symbol elements stop rate that corresponds to the converted scale of damage, the business suspension The damage calculation apparatus according to claim 2 , wherein the ratio is calculated. The disaster information storage unit stores scale information and occurrence probabilities for a plurality of disasters,
The stop information calculation unit calculates the business stop ratio for each disaster,
The damage calculation unit calculates a damage value of the information system when each disaster occurs, and calculates the damage value of the information system when each disaster occurs and the occurrence probability of each disaster from the information system. loss calculation device according to claim 2 or 3, characterized in that to calculate the risk. A damage calculation method for calculating a damage value at the time of occurrence of a disaster for an information system composed of a plurality of elements, using an element information storage unit storing connection relations and dependency relations of each element, and the information system For each work to be performed, there are a use-side element that receives service provision, a provider-side element that provides service, an evaluation value per unit period , and an alternative means capable of performing the work without using the information system. In some cases, an evaluation value storage unit that stores an efficiency reduction rate, which is a rate at which efficiency is reduced when the job is executed using the alternative means, and each element when a predetermined disaster occurs There the elements stop rate that can not be used, a damage calculation method for calculating the damage value in the event of a disaster by using said disaster effect information storage unit that stores for each of the unit period after the occurrence,
Processing apparatus, wherein for each business, based on the connection relation in which the element information storage unit and stored by the element in which the evaluation value storage section is connected up to the use-side element or we provide side element stored, execution of the business Specified as a connection element that is necessary to operate, and based on the dependency stored in the element information storage unit, an element on which the connection element depends is necessary for the connection element to operate. An element identification process that identifies the dependent element as a dependent element;
After the disaster has occurred from the element stop ratio of the target element stored in the influence information storage unit for each job, with the processing device as a target element for the connection element and the dependent element specified in the element specifying step . For each unit period , a stop information calculation step for calculating a stoppage rate of the stoppage of the task,
Processing apparatus, wherein for each business, the business suspension ratio for each of the unit period calculated by the stop information calculating step, multiplied by the evaluation value in which the evaluation value storage section is stored, when there is the alternative is more efficient the information system in a case by summing the values obtained by multiplying the reduction ratio, which calculates the damage value when the disaster occurs for each of its business, the total to the disaster damage value for each operation occurred A damage calculation method comprising: a damage calculation step for calculating a damage value of the damage. A damage calculation program for calculating a damage value at the time of a disaster for an information system composed of a plurality of elements, using an element information storage unit storing connection relations and dependency relations of each element, and the information system For each work to be performed, there are a use-side element that receives service provision, a provider-side element that provides service, an evaluation value per unit period , and an alternative means capable of performing the work without using the information system. In some cases, an evaluation value storage unit that stores an efficiency reduction rate, which is a rate at which efficiency is reduced when the job is executed using the alternative means, and each element when a predetermined disaster occurs damage calculation program but which elements stop rate that can not be used to calculate the loss value in the event of a disaster by using said disaster effect information storage unit that stores for each of the unit period after the occurrence It is in,
The aforementioned operations, based on the connection relation in which the element information storage unit and stored by the element in which the evaluation value storage section is connected up to the use-side element or we provide side element stored, in operation the execution of the business with it are identified as the connection element is an element necessary to have, based on dependencies that the element information storage unit and stored by the elements which the connecting element is dependent, said connecting element is an element necessary to operate Element identification processing to identify as a dependent element;
For each unit period after the occurrence of the disaster, from the element stop ratio of the target element stored in the influence information storage unit for each job, with the connection element and the dependent element specified in the element specifying process as the target element In addition, a stop information calculation process for calculating the stoppage rate of the stoppage of the task,
For each business, multiply the business suspension ratio for each unit period calculated in the suspension information calculation process by the evaluation value stored by the evaluation value storage unit, and if there is the alternative means, multiply by the efficiency reduction rate value by summing was, calculates the damage value in the case of the disaster occurred for each of its business, the loss value of the information system when the by summing the damage value for each operational disaster A damage calculation program for causing a computer to execute damage calculation processing to be calculated.

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