JP5953219B2 - Flight simulation device - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an operation simulation apparatus for selecting a route for a ship.

  As a system to support the operation of ships, we provide technologies that make both scheduled arrival operations and energy saving (reducing environmental impact) compatible (see Patent Documents 1 to 3), predictions of ship sway during stormy weather, Technology that supports preparation of countermeasures accurately (see Patent Literature 4), technology that searches for the optimum route (see Patent Literatures 5 to 7), technology that corrects ship performance according to sea conditions (see Patent Literatures 8 and 9) ) Etc. have been proposed.

JP 2004-25914 A JP 2007-45338 A JP 2009-286230 A JP 2007-47036 A JP 2007-57499 A JP 2007-245935 A JP 2008-145312 A JP 2012-86604 A JP 2010-237755 A

  On the other hand, in land reclamation work such as marine artificial islands, materials (land reclamation materials) such as earth and sand and stone materials are transported to the sea. In order to transport the required amount of material, the ship (carrier) repeats the operation from the material loading port (loading location) to the unloading port (unloading location) near the landfill site. In general, a large number of ships carry materials for shortening the construction period, but the operation distance is long and changes in weather and sea conditions affect the availability of operations, and performance between ships (ship speed, seaworthiness performance, etc.) ) Are different, it is difficult to efficiently manage the operation of multiple ships.

  Further, in general, all decisions on a ship are made by the captain. The captain operates the ship while taking into consideration various conditions such as the predicted values of weather and sea conditions, the performance of the ship, and the amount of materials. However, as the operating distance becomes longer and the operating time becomes longer, changes in weather and sea conditions have a strong influence on operational decisions. In addition, the weather and sea state forecast at the time of departure from the port may cause the actual weather and sea state to change significantly during operation, and there may be a case where the vehicle is waiting at a evacuation site. When such a situation occurs frequently, it is easily assumed that it is difficult to secure the process.

  In addition, the work status at the loading and unloading locations also affects efficient operation management. If the waiting time of the ship at the loading place and the unloading place becomes long, it is difficult to judge efficient operation only by the weather / sea state information and the own ship information. Furthermore, in sea areas where many ships are complicated, it is important to share the use of evacuation sites (evacuation ports, shelters, etc.) during stormy weather. This will lead to efficient operation after the recovery of weather and sea conditions. In other words, there is a lack of information if the master makes a flight decision based only on departure and berthing (evacuation, standby) based on information that can be easily acquired, such as weather forecasts and oceanographic forecasts. For this reason, sufficient efficiency cannot be achieved, and there is a high possibility that an excessively safe judgment is selected. Therefore, efficient operation management that realizes process shortening is considered difficult.

  In addition, since the techniques described in Patent Documents 1 to 9 support the operation of one ship, when a plurality of ships need to berth, selection of a berth is performed in consideration of the whole. There is a problem that it is not.

  Such a situation also becomes a problem when creating a process plan. In other words, it is difficult to calculate the operating rate of a ship when the ship's mileage is long and changes in weather and sea conditions affect the availability of the ship, or when the ship's performance is different. A process plan is created using the values as approximate values. At this time, it is desired to perform a highly accurate simulation by selecting a suitable route for a plurality of ships.

  The present invention has been developed in view of the above-described circumstances, and it is an object to provide an operation simulation device capable of performing a highly accurate simulation for a plurality of ships when creating a process plan or the like. And

  In order to solve the above problems, the navigation simulation device of the present invention stores weather / sea conditions in a predetermined sea area, a plurality of routes in the sea area, and ship speeds for a plurality of ships operating in the sea area. A storage unit, and a route selection unit that selects a route from the plurality of routes based on the weather / sea conditions and the ship speed. The anchorage is set, and the route selection unit determines that the weather / sea conditions are unsuitable for the operation from the current anchorage to the next anchorage by the ship for a predetermined time. Calculating the operation time of the ship so as to evacuate to the current berth, and for each of the plurality of ships, selecting the route with the shortest operation time among the plurality of routes. Features.

  According to such a configuration, when it is determined that the weather / sea conditions are unsuitable for operation from the current anchorage to the next anchorage by the ship using the weather / ocean conditions and the ship speed, a predetermined time (for example, , Stay in the current evacuation site (for one time step of weather and sea conditions), check the weather and sea conditions again after a predetermined time, and if it is still unsuitable, wait for the predetermined time again Repeat the above to calculate the ship's operation time, and select the route with the shortest operation time among the multiple routes for each of the multiple vessels. It is possible to create a process plan based on the operation status.

  The storage unit stores the number of ships that can be anchored at the anchorage, and the route selector selects the routes of the plurality of ships so as not to exceed the number of ships that can be anchored at the anchorage. It is desirable that the configuration is selected.

  According to such a configuration, since the route of multiple ships is selected so that the number of ships that can be berthed does not exceed the number of berths, more realistic settings can be made in consideration of the degree of congestion at the berths. This makes it possible to create a process plan based on various operating conditions.

  The ship repeatedly loads material at a loading port that is one of the berthing sites and loads and unloads the material at a loading port that is one of the berths, and the storage unit stores the loading of the vessel. The working time required in the port and the unloading port, and the workable time zone in the loading port and the unloading port are stored, and the route selection unit is based on the work time and the workable time zone, It is desirable to calculate the operation time.

  According to such a configuration, since the operation time is calculated based on the work time and the workable time zone, it is possible to create a process plan in consideration of actual work.

  According to the present invention, a highly accurate simulation can be performed when a process plan is created.

It is a schematic diagram which shows the sea area where the flight simulation apparatus which concerns on embodiment of this invention is applied. It is a block diagram which shows the operation simulation apparatus which concerns on embodiment of this invention. (A) is a figure which shows an example of a ship specification table, (b) is a figure which shows an example of an anchorage table. It is a flowchart for demonstrating the operation example of the operation simulation apparatus which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a schematic diagram which shows an example of the position of the staying place in a case study. It is a graph which shows an example of frequency distribution of virtual weather and a sea condition. (A) is a graph which shows an example of the time-dependent change of virtual sea conditions, (b) is a graph which shows an example of the time-dependent change of virtual weather conditions. It is a graph which shows an example of frequency distribution of virtual weather and a sea condition. (A) is a graph which shows an example of the time-dependent change of virtual sea conditions, (b) is a graph which shows an example of the time-dependent change of virtual weather conditions. It is a schematic diagram which shows an example of the position of the staying place in a case study. It is a graph which shows the relationship between the number of dredgers and the total carrying amount for one year. It is a graph which shows the frequency | count of transportation (round-trip frequency) of each ship when the number of dredgers is set to 90. It is a graph which shows transition of the monthly conveyance amount and an operation rate. It is a graph which shows transition of total conveyance amount. It is a graph which shows the change of the degree of efficiency improvement by the weather and sea conditions. It is a graph which shows the degree of efficiency improvement for every conveyance distance.

  Hereinafter, an operation simulation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings as appropriate, taking as an example a case where a plurality of ships are applied to offshore construction on a remote island where materials need to be transported over a long distance and in large quantities. . In addition, the same code | symbol is attached | subjected to the same structure and the overlapping description is abbreviate | omitted.

  As shown in FIG. 1, in the sea area 2 to which the operation simulation apparatus according to the present embodiment is applied, a port 3 for loading materials (hereinafter referred to as “loading port 3”) and a port 4 for loading and unloading materials (hereinafter referred to as “loading port 3”). , “Loading port 4”) and a plurality of ports 5 between the loading port 3 and the unloading port 4. In the sea area 2, a plurality of ships 10 reciprocate between the loading port 3 and the unloading port 4, load and unload materials at the loading port 3, and unload materials at the port 4. In order to distinguish between the plurality of ports 5, a Roman character may be added after the symbol 5. Further, in the following description of the operation simulation device, the ship 10 does not actually operate, but operates in the virtual space in the simulation in the device.

<Operation simulation device>
As shown in FIG. 2, the operation simulation device 20 is a device that simulates the operation of a plurality of ships 10 and selects an optimum route from the plurality of routes, and includes a CPU, a ROM, a RAM, It consists of an input / output circuit. As shown in FIG. 2, the flight simulation device 20 includes a storage unit 21, a database management unit 22, and a route selection unit 23 as functional units.

  The storage unit 21 stores a weather / sea conditions database 21a, a route database 21b, a ship specification database 21c, and an anchorage database 21d.

The weather / sea conditions database 21a stores the weather / sea conditions. The weather / sea conditions are data relating to sea conditions (wave height) and weather (wind speed) in the sea area 2 described above. In this embodiment, for example, information for each area having an area of 400 km ² (20 km × 20 km) is obtained for a predetermined time (time step). For example, the data includes a predetermined period (for example, one year) every hour. As such weather and sea conditions, for example, data on past weather and sea conditions in the sea area 2 can be used.

The route database 21b stores position data of a plurality of routes in the sea area 2.
As shown in FIG. 1, the plurality of routes are set so that the ship 10 that reciprocates between the loading port 3 and the unloading port 4 is always close to the destination. For example, from the loading port 3 to the unloading port 4 There are several routes such as “loading port 3 → loading port 4”, “loading port 3 → port 5A → loading port 4”, “loading port 3 → port 5A → port 5B → loading port 4”, etc. Is set. Such a plurality of routes do not include routes that move away from the destination, for example, from the port 5D to the port 5C on the outbound route. That is, in the route of the ship 10, the straight line distance from the next port (staying place) to the destination (loading port 3 or unloading port 4) is shorter than the straight line distance from the current port to the destination.

  As shown in FIG. 3A, the ship specification database 21c includes, for each ship 10, a ship ID, a load capacity, a ship speed on the forward path, a ship speed on the return path, a wave height threshold, and a wind speed. The threshold value is stored in association with each other. Here, the loading capacity is the maximum loading capacity that can load materials on the ship 10. Further, the ship speed (outward path) is a speed at which the ship 10 loaded with the material with the maximum load capacity operates, and is a preset value. The ship speed (return route) is a speed at which the ship 10 loaded with materials is operated, and is a preset value that is faster than the ship speed (outward route). The wave height threshold is the maximum value of the wave height that can be operated by the ship 10, and when the wave height during operation exceeds the wave height threshold, the ship 10 needs to stay. The wind speed threshold is the maximum value of the wind speed at which the ship 10 can be operated. When the wind speed during operation exceeds the wind speed threshold, the ship 10 needs to stay.

  In the ship specification database 21c, the work time and the work available time zone are stored in association with each other for each ship 10. Here, the work time is the time required to load materials on and off the vessel 10 and may be set separately for each loading / unloading. The workable time is a time zone in which work can be performed at the loading port 3 and the unloading port 4, and may be stored in the anchorage database 21d instead of the ship specification database 21c.

As shown in FIG. 3 (b), the berthing place database 21d stores the berthing place ID (or berthing place name), the evacuation place position data, and the number of berthing places associated with each other. ing. The berthing area is a place where the ship 10 can berth, and the loading port 3, the unloading port 4 and the plurality of ports 5 correspond to the berthing place.
The number of ships that can be anchored is the number of ships 10 that can be anchored at the anchorage, and is set in advance according to the size of ports 3, 4, and 5, a contract with the port manager, and the like.
The number of ships that can be berthed is the number of ships that can be berthed minus the number of berths 10 ships. Although illustration is omitted, the number of berthing berths changes with time during the simulation, and is stored in association with the time flowing in the simulation.

  The database management unit 22 manages each of the databases 21a to 21d in the storage unit 21, and acquires various data output from the input device 30 including a keyboard / mouse or an external server. The contents of the databases 21a to 21d in the database 21 are updated.

  The route selection unit 23 selects an optimum route for the plurality of ships 10 based on the data of the databases 21a to 21d, and outputs a selection result to the output device 40 including a printer, a display, a speaker, and the like. The route selection method by the route selection unit 23 will be described in detail in the following operation example.

<Operation example>
Subsequently, an operation example of the operation simulation device 20, that is, a route selection method by the route selection unit 23 will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. In this operation example, as an initial condition, the simulation is started from a state in which all the ships 10 are located at the loading port 3, and the simulation is repeated for each ship 10 one way (outward / return) (outward → return → forward) → Return → ...).

  As shown in FIG. 4, first, the route selection unit 23 sets a parameter a indicating which ship 10 is, a parameter b indicating which route is the number of ports in the route (number excluding the departure point). And each parameter c is set to “1” (step S1). The total number of ships 10 is A, the total number of routes is B, and the total number of ports in the route (excluding the departure point) is C.

Subsequently, the route selection unit 23 performs a predetermined time H ₁ (for example, weather / sea state) on the route from the current value (here, loading port 3) to the next berth in the first route of the first vessel 10. Based on the weather / sea conditions at the position of the ship 10 for each time step of the condition, it is determined whether the weather / sea conditions are good or bad for operation (step S2).
For example, in order to confirm the weather and sea conditions at the position of the ship 10 after the time Δt, the route selection unit 23, the ship position data x of the ship 10 at the current time t (preset as an initial condition), Based on the ship speed v of the ship 10 stored in the ship specification database 21c, ship position data x + v · Δt of the ship 10 at time t + Δt is calculated.
Subsequently, the route selector 23 selects the weather / sea condition prediction condition (ie, wave height (sea condition)) corresponding to the position x + v · Δt and the time t + Δt from the weather / sea condition stored in the weather / sea condition database 21a. And the wind speed (meteorological condition)) are extracted, and the extracted wave height and wind speed are compared with the wave height threshold and the wind speed threshold stored in the ship specification database 21c.
Then, the route selection unit 23 determines that the weather / sea conditions are good when the wave height is equal to or lower than the wave height threshold and the wind speed is equal to or lower than the wind speed threshold in the entire operation up to the next port. Exceeds the wave height threshold, or the wind speed exceeds the wind speed threshold, it is determined that the weather / sea conditions are poor. Here, the wind speed as the weather condition may include an east-west direction wind speed and a north-south direction wind speed. In this case, the channel selector 23 selects the east-west direction wind speed and the north-south direction wind speed respectively. It can be compared with a threshold.

When it determines with it being favorable in step S2, the route selection part 23 confirms the congestion degree of the next berthing place (step S3).
That is, the route selection unit 23 refers to the number of spare berths at the time of arrival at the next berth, stored in the berth database 21d, and the number of spare berths is positive (free) or zero (free) Whether or not) is determined. Regarding the first ship 10, it is determined in principle that there is a vacancy in step S3.

When it is determined that there is a defect in step S2, and when it is determined that there is no vacancy in step S3, the route selection unit 23 keeps the ship 10 at the current evacuation site for a predetermined time H ₂ (for example, meteorological / sea conditions). Wait for one hour, which is a time step, and repeat steps S2 and S3.

  If it is determined in step S3 that there is a vacancy, the route selector 23 repeats the same processing for the route from the next berth to the next berth (No in step S5 → step S6 → step S2 →... ).

When the processing up to the destination (the unloading port 4 on the outbound route or the loading port 3 on the outbound route) is completed for the first route (Yes in step S5), the route selecting unit 23 calculates the operation time on the first route ( Step S7). Here, the operation time is the time required for the ship 10 to operate from the departure place to the destination, and is the navigation time for moving in the sea area, the waiting time at the anchorage, the loading port 3 and the unloading port 4. Working hours.
In this operation example, the operation time on the outbound route is the waiting time in order until the loading operation starts at the loading port 3, the working time required for loading at the loading port 3, the navigation time for moving in the sea area 2, This is the total time of waiting time at the shelter. In addition, the operating time on the return route is the order waiting time until the loading / unloading work at the loading / unloading port 4 starts, the work time required for loading / unloading at the loading / unloading port 4, the navigation time for moving in the sea area 2, and the anchorage in the middle. And the total waiting time.

  The route selection unit 23 repeats the same processing for all the routes of the first vessel 10 (No → Step S9 → Step S2 →... In Step S8).

  When the operation time calculation process is completed for all the routes of the first ship 10 (Yes in step S8), the route selection unit 23 selects the route with the shortest operation time from the plurality of routes related to the first ship 10. (Step S10).

The route selection unit 23 repeats the same process for all the ships 10 (No in step S11 → Step S12 → Step S2 →...). For the second and subsequent vessels 10, there are cases where it is determined that there is no vacancy in step S3.
When a route is selected for all the vessels 10 (Yes in step S11), the route selector 23 adds up the operation times of the selected routes for each vessel 10, and the accumulated operation time is a predetermined period (this operation). In the example, based on whether or not one year has been reached, it is determined whether or not the simulation for a predetermined period has been completed for all the ships 10 (step S13).
In the case of No in step S13, the number of ships whose simulation has been completed is subtracted from the total number A of the ships 10, and the destination (the loading port 3 or the unloading port) in the immediately preceding process is obtained for the ship 10 that has not been simulated for a predetermined period. Steps S1 to S13 are repeated starting from the port 4). Here, a simulation regarding the return route is performed after the simulation regarding the outward route. For example, when the first vessel 10 operates the return route, another vessel 10 is in the outward route and stays at the port 5. There is a case, and the route of another vessel 10 affects the route selection of one vessel 10.

  If it is determined that the simulation for one year has been completed for all the ships 10 (Yes in step S13), this flow is terminated, the selected route is output to the output device 40, and the print and image are printed. The user is notified by (video) or audio.

  The route selection unit 23 loads the loading port 3 and the unloading port 4 within a predetermined period (for example, one year) a predetermined number of times (for example, one ship 10 is loaded with zero waiting time without being affected by weather and sea conditions). With the configuration to calculate the number (operating number) or ratio (operating rate) of the ships 10 that can reciprocate more than 50% when the number of direct reciprocations between the port 3 and the unloading port 4 is 100%. There may be.

The operation simulation device 20 according to the embodiment of the present invention determines that the weather / sea conditions are unsuitable for operation from the current berth to the next berth using the weather / sea conditions and ship speed. In this case, the ship's operation time is calculated by staying at the current anchorage for a predetermined time, and the route with the shortest operation time is selected for each of the plurality of vessels. Therefore, it is possible to perform a highly accurate simulation, and it is possible to create a process plan based on a more accurate operation state in consideration of weather and sea conditions.
In addition, since the operation simulation device 20 according to the embodiment of the present invention is set so that the route always moves forward from the departure point to the destination, the inefficient route that returns backward is excluded in advance, The time required for the simulation can be shortened.
In addition, since the operation simulation device 20 according to the embodiment of the present invention selects the routes of a plurality of ships so as not to exceed the number of ships that can be berthed at the berthing place, more consideration is given to the degree of congestion at the berthing place. Realistic setting is possible, and it is possible to create a process plan based on an accurate operation status.
In addition, since the operation simulation apparatus 20 according to the embodiment of the present invention calculates the operation time based on the work time and the workable time zone, it is possible to create a process plan in consideration of actual work.
Moreover, since the operation simulation apparatus 20 which concerns on embodiment of this invention calculates the operation number or operation rate of the ship 10, it becomes the reference which determines the optimal number of ships of the ship 10. FIG.

<Example>
<Operation simulation technology>
Weather routing in the shipping field deals with cases where there is no anchorage 5 on the sea route that crosses the ocean. However, because the present invention is mainly intended for offshore construction, there are islands etc. in the middle of the loading port 3 and the unloading port 4. Consider the case where you can stay at home if weather and sea conditions deteriorate.
In this case, a large amount of material can be transported in a shorter period of time by providing a shelter 5 on an intermediate island and moving the ship 10 as far as possible while taking into account changes in weather and sea conditions. Conceivable.
At the time of construction planning, important parameters are the number of ships 10, the transport amount of each ship 10, ship speed, wave height threshold, wind speed threshold, anchorage 5 (evacuation port), loading and unloading work time, work start time and It is possible to optimize the operation plan by searching for the optimum route including whether to leave the port, considering the end time, and simulating the operation of each ship in the planned construction area.

In this technology, the fifth generation NCAR / Penn State mesoscale model MM5 (Grell, GA, J. Dudhia, and DRStauffer: A description of the fifth-generation Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), NCAR Tech. Note NCAR / TN-398 + STR, NCAR, p.128, 1991) and coastal wave estimation model SWAN (Booij, N., RCRis and LHHolthuijsen: A third-generation wave mode1 for coastal regions, Part1, Model description and validation, J. Geophys. Res. C4, 104, pp, 7649-7666, 1999).
Based on the weather and sea conditions obtained here, the optimum route of each ship 10 is searched.

As described above, the optimum route is searched according to the flow shown in FIG.
The weather / sea conditions are stored in the storage unit 21 in advance, and first, the required time is calculated for all route patterns in the route database 21b for the first ship 10.
At this time, as the number of berths 5 increases, the number m of route patterns that can be selected from the loading port 3 to the unloading port 4 increases as a factorial as shown in the following equation.

However, N: Total number of ports.
For example, if there are 10 harbors 5 and the loading port 3 and the unloading port 4 are n = 12, m = 9864101, and all of these route patterns are due to the deterioration of weather and sea conditions of each ship 10 If the required time including the waiting time is calculated, the calculation load is very large, and the time until the calculation ends is enormous.
On the other hand, this route pattern actually includes unrealistic routes including return.
Therefore, based on the total extension of each route pattern, only the unrealistic route pattern is removed in advance, and the realistic route pattern is made into a database to be the route database 21b, thereby shortening the route search time. did.

When the required time is calculated, if it is not possible to navigate due to worsening weather and sea conditions, the current port will wait until the weather and sea conditions improve and the next port can be reached.
Then, considering the standby time, the route that reaches the loading port 3 / unloading port 4 in the shortest time is set as the optimum route.
Next, calculate the required time for the second vessel in the same way, but check the overlap with other vessels 10 for each berthing site (the degree of congestion of the port) and anchor the port. If you exceed the number of ships available, wait at the current port until there is a vacancy.
The shortest route taking all waiting times into consideration is the optimum route.
By repeating the same search for the subsequent ships 10, the optimum route of each ship 10 can be searched.

  As described above, by searching for the optimum route for each outbound / return route from the loading port 3 to the unloading port 4 to each port 10 and performing a simulation in the sea area 2 (construction zone castle) during the construction period, It is possible to calculate the utilization rate and plan the optimal combination of fleets.

<Case study condition setting>
(1) Case study 1-Number of dredgers with high cost-effectiveness-
A one-year simulation for carrying earth and sand was performed using the operation simulation device 20 according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Since the simulation technique of the present invention is mainly intended for long-distance transportation, it is assumed that the material loading port and the unloading port are far away than general marine construction.
Therefore, as shown in FIG. 5, the case where the loading port and the unloading port are 571 km away and 13 harbors exist between them is considered.
The number of ships that can be anchored at each berthing area is three, and all ships can be anchored at the loading and unloading port standby areas.
Further, in order to create a virtual weather / sea condition, a sea state / weather analysis using past NCEP data in an arbitrary region was performed, and the frequency distribution shown in FIG. 6 was obtained as a whole region.
Given this hypothetical weather and sea conditions, we conducted a one-year simulation.
Here, FIG. 7 is a graph showing time-series changes in the wave height and wind speed at points indicated by Δ in FIG. In FIG. 7B, the solid line is the wind speed in the north-south direction, and the dotted line is the wind speed in the east-west direction. In the example shown in FIG. 7, the weather and sea conditions were good from spring to summer, but a typhoon came in from August, and the northwest seasonal wind was dominant in winter.

Under this setting, in order to investigate the number of cost-effective vessels (number of dredgers), only the number of dredgers was changed, and the change in the total transportation amount for one year was examined.
The specifications such as the optimality of the ship were as shown in Table 1, and a one-year operation simulation was conducted.

  Here, the “working time” is the time required for loading and unloading work. The “workable time zone” is a time zone during which loading and unloading operations can be performed, and it is assumed that the work is stopped and waiting at midnight and early morning.

(2) Case study 2 -Comparison with empirical operational power method-
In order to confirm the effectiveness of the present invention, as compared with the conventional case, the carrying amount was compared with the case where the ship was operated based on the judgment of the ship captain and the present invention.
Here, we conducted interviews with multiple masters in order to model the conventional method that the master judges.
As a result, the following was found.
・ The master is responsible for the operation.
・ We receive weather and marine forecasts via TV / radio and the Japan Coast Guard's forecast fax (information can also be obtained at sea).
・ Due to the weather forecast (meteorology / sea conditions), if the weather is not good until the port arrives after departure, it will not leave.
-Safety may be prioritized and may return to the original port after departure due to worsening sea conditions.
The above was modeled as an “empirical operation method”.
Since it is very difficult to model empirical judgments without mastery standards for each master, this modeling is limited to items common to multiple masters, and individual empirical judgments of the ship The standard was considered to be included in the setting of the navigational limit wave height and the navigational limit wind speed of each ship.

  In this case study, as a more realistic fleet, six ships are set up with the specifications shown in Table 2, each port is set at the same position as Case Study 1 shown in Fig. 5, and the weather and sea conditions In addition, an analysis using past NCEP data is performed for the same arbitrary area as in the case study 1, and the entire area has the frequency distribution shown in FIG. 8, and the time series shown in FIG. 9 at the points indicated by Δ in FIG. A one-year operation simulation was conducted with virtual weather and sea conditions. In FIG. 9 (b), the solid line is the wind speed in the north-south direction, and the dotted line is the wind speed in the east-west direction.

(3) Case study 3-Transportation distance and efficiency-
The longer the transport distance, the longer the time the ship is on the sea, so the influence of weather and sea conditions will increase.
Therefore, the degree of efficiency by applying the simulation technique of the present invention increases as the transport distance increases.
Therefore, in order to investigate the relationship between the transportation distance and the efficiency improvement according to the present invention, as shown in FIG. 10, the transportation distance is set to five types of 571 km, 468 km, 366 km, 264 km, and 172 km, and a one-year operation simulation is performed. It was.
Here, the berthing area is the port between the loading ports 3A, 3B, 3C, 3D, 3E and the unloading port 4. The transport distance is 571km, 13 ports, 468km, 366km, 264km, 6 ports, 172km, 4 ports. It was.
The specifications of the ship are shown in Table 2 which is the same as in Case Study 2, and the degree of efficiency when the operation simulation technology of the present invention is applied is compared with the transport amount when the empirical operation method is applied. We investigated how the value changes depending on the transport distance.

<Result of case study>
(1) Case study 1-Number of dredgers with high cost-effectiveness-
FIG. 11 shows the results of examining the change in the total transportation amount for one year by increasing the number of ships.
As shown in FIG. 11, it can be seen that even if the number of dredgers is increased, the total annual carrying amount reaches a peak.
This means that even if the number of dredgers is simply increased, the number of loading and unloading facilities at the loading port 3 and loading / unloading port 4 is limited. Is shown.
Therefore, in order to examine the number of dredgers with the highest cost-effectiveness, the index indicating the percentage of vessels operating efficiently is “the number of round trips per year for one vessel when the waiting time is zero”. The ratio of the number of ships that could secure 50 or more round trips was defined as “effective ship operating rate”, and the relationship between the number of dredgers and the effective ship operating rate was examined.
Focusing on the effective vessel utilization rate in FIG. 11, the number of dredgers has dropped from about 16 or more, and it was found that when the number of dredgers is 16, the number of waiting vessels is small and the cost effectiveness is optimized. .
Even when the number of times of transportation of each ship shown in FIG. 12 is seen, it can be seen that the number of times of transportation decreases as the priority of the route search decreases.
From this result, it can be seen that if this technology is used, cost effectiveness can be quantitatively evaluated at the stage of construction planning.

(2) Case study 2-Comparison with empirical operation methods-
FIG. 13 shows the simulation results for one year under the actual number of dredgers and working conditions (Table 2).
If the operating rate is the ratio of the transport amount when the weather and sea conditions are not considered and when the weather and sea conditions are considered, the operating rate has a large seasonal change. The occupancy rate in December was the lowest, at 23%.
On the other hand, the highest occupancy rate in May exceeded 80%, and the average occupancy rate throughout the year was 53%.
This indicates that it is important to understand the seasonal characteristics of the construction area during construction planning.

FIG. 14 shows a comparison between the case where the empirical operation method is applied and the case where the optimum route according to the present invention is adopted for the amount of earth and sand transported for one year.
If empirical operating method, the total annual transport amount to 460,000M ^3, when the present invention was 594,800m ^3.
From this result, by applying the present invention, there is no uncertainty included in the empirical operational propriety determination, and in this case the transport amount increased by about 29%.
Even if the time of NCEP data is changed at the time of creating weather and sea conditions, and it is carried out with 7 settings, this setting can secure an increase of 21% on average for 7 years as shown in Fig. 15, The effectiveness of the present invention was confirmed.

(3) Case study 3-Transportation distance and efficiency-
In order to examine the effect of transportation distance, under the same realistic fleet and working conditions as in Case Study 2 (Table 2), we set transportation distances of 571 km, 468 km, 366 km, 264 km, and 172 km for five different cases for one year. A flight simulation was conducted.
As a result, the total annual transportation amount was as shown in FIG.
According to FIG. 16, the carrying amount when using the simulation technique of the present invention is more than the case where the operation method is applied by experience, and it can be understood that the carrying amount can be increased by applying the present invention. It was.
Looking at the degree of efficiency improvement according to the present invention, except for the case where the transport distance is 366 km, the transport increase increases as the transport distance increases, which is 4% at 172 km, and 27 at 571 km. % Transportation efficiency can be estimated.
However, the efficiency was reduced at 366 km compared to 264 km. This is probably because the number of shelters is not proportional to the transport distance in this setting, and the location of shelters is the same, so the relationship between the degree of efficiency and distance is not simple.

  As mentioned above, although embodiment of this invention was described, this invention is not limited to the said embodiment, In the range which does not deviate from the summary of this invention, it can change suitably. For example, the positions of the plurality of ships 10 in the initial condition can be changed as appropriate. Moreover, it can change suitably also about the matter which ship route is selected in order from the some ship 10 among several ships 10. FIG. For example, the configuration may be such that the route is selected first from the ship 10 with a slow ship speed, the ship 10 with a large load capacity, the ship 10 with a small wave height threshold and a wind speed threshold, or the like.

2 Sea area 3 Loading port (Dorm)
4 Unloading port (staying place)
5 Harbor (Dorm)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Ship 20 Operation simulation apparatus 21 Memory | storage part 23 Route selection part

Claims (3)

A storage unit that stores weather / sea conditions in a predetermined sea area, a plurality of routes in the sea area, and ship speeds for a plurality of ships operating in the sea area,
A route selection unit that selects a route from the plurality of routes based on the weather / sea conditions and the boat speed;
With
On the route, a berth where the ship can berth is set,
If the route selection unit determines that the weather / sea conditions are unsuitable for the operation of the ship from the current berth to the next berth, the evacuation route avoids the current evacuation place for a predetermined time. The operation simulation apparatus characterized in that the operation time of the ship is calculated so as to stay overnight, and the route with the shortest operation time is selected from the plurality of routes for each of the plurality of vessels. The storage unit stores the number of ships that can be berthed at the berth,
The navigation simulation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the route selection unit selects the route of a plurality of the ships so as not to exceed the number of ships that can be anchored at the anchorage. The ship repeatedly loading materials at a loading port that is one of the berthing sites and loading and unloading the materials at a loading port that is one of the berths,
The storage unit stores work time required in the loading port and the unloading port of the ship, and workable time zones in the loading port and the unloading port,
The navigation simulation device according to claim 1, wherein the route selection unit calculates the operation time based on the work time and the workable time zone.

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