JP6941484B2 - Rainfall forecaster - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a technique for predicting rainfall.

Conventionally, information such as 1-hour rainfall and 10-minute rainfall has been provided as a weather forecast. In addition, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism provides rainfall information by XRAIN (eXtended RAdar Information Network), which is a real-time rainfall observation system using high-performance weather radar.

When focusing on the construction industry, transportation, outdoor events, etc., short-term rainfall may cause problems. For example, in concrete placement in the construction industry, heavy rainfall for several minutes can cause deterioration of concrete quality.

When the 10-minute rainfall in the weather forecast is 5 [mm / 10 minutes], there are cases where 0.5 [mm / min] of rain continues for 10 minutes and 5 [mm] of rain in 1 minute of 10 minutes. It is not possible to distinguish from the case where the rain falls intensively. However, in both cases, the scale of raindrops is larger and the damage to the concrete surface during casting is larger in the case where 5 [mm] of rain is concentrated in 1 minute out of 10 minutes.

XRAIN can provide data every minute or so. However, since the rainfall information is based on the observation of rain clouds over several [km] to 10 [km], it does not take into consideration the influence of wind and high-rise buildings. Therefore, the rainfall information provided by XRAIN may differ from the actual rainfall in a short period of time.

The present invention has been devised in view of the above circumstances, and an object of the present invention is to provide a rainfall prediction device capable of suitably calculating a predicted rainfall.

In order to solve the above problems, the rain amount prediction device of the present invention is based on a radio wave information acquisition unit that acquires radio wave information regarding radio waves received by a radio wave receiver installed at a first location and the acquired radio wave information. The radio wave information is the reception intensity or fluctuating voltage of the radio wave received by the radio wave receiving unit , and is provided with a rain amount predicting unit that calculates the predicted rain amount at the second place different from the first place. The radio wave receiving unit is installed in different first places so as to surround the second place, and the rain amount prediction unit is used for a plurality of wind directions of the first place and a plurality of the first places. The radio wave receiving unit is selected based on the location information of the location and the second location, and the predicted rainfall is calculated based on the radio wave information of the selected radio wave receiving unit.
It is characterized in that the occurrence time of the predicted rainfall is calculated based on the wind speed of the first place corresponding to the selected radio wave receiving unit and the position information of the first place and the second place.

According to such a configuration, the predicted rainfall in the second place can be suitably calculated based on the radio wave information of the different place (first place). Further, as compared with the case of using a fall rain gauge, maintenance is not required to prevent foreign matter (sand, leaves, dust, dust, etc.) from being mixed in and accumulated, and maintainability can be improved.
Further, according to such a configuration, since the reception intensity or the fluctuating voltage of the radio wave received by the radio wave receiving unit is used as the radio wave information, the predicted rainfall at the second place can be calculated more preferably.

The rainfall forecasting device includes a weather information acquisition unit that acquires a forecasted rainfall for a predetermined time at the second place, and the rainfall forecasting unit measures the acquired forecasted rainfall at intervals shorter than the predetermined time. The forecast rain amount in a time shorter than the predetermined time may be calculated by allocating within the predetermined time based on the radio wave information.

According to such a configuration, the forecast rainfall for a predetermined time at the second place is distributed within a predetermined time based on the radio wave information measured at intervals shorter than the predetermined time, so that the forecast rainfall for a short time can be calculated more preferably. Can be done.

According to the present invention, the predicted rainfall can be preferably calculated.

It is a schematic diagram which shows the rainfall prediction system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the rainfall prediction system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. (A) is a graph showing an example of changes over time in radio wave reception intensity and rainfall at the same location, and (b) is a graph showing an example of changes over time in radio wave fluctuation voltage and rainfall at the same location. It is a graph which shows an example of the time-dependent change of the reception intensity of the radio wave and the amount of rainfall in the same place. It is a graph which shows an example of the relationship between the amount of rainfall in a predetermined time and the fluctuation voltage of a radio wave converted into the cumulative value of a predetermined time in the same place. It is a flowchart for demonstrating the operation example of the rainfall prediction apparatus which concerns on embodiment of this invention. (A) is a graph showing an example of the time-dependent change of the rainfall of the first place B at the _{time t 0 to t 1} , and (b) is the time-dependent change of the rainfall of the first place C at the _{time t 0 to t 1.} is a graph showing an example of a, (c) is a graph showing an example of a change with time of the predicted rainfall in the second location a at time t ₁ ~t _3.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings as appropriate. As shown in FIG. 1, the rainfall prediction system 1 according to the embodiment of the present invention predicts the predicted rainfall at the second place P2 based on the radio wave information (radio wave reception intensity or fluctuating voltage) measured at the first place P1. It is a system to calculate. As shown in FIG. 2, the rainfall prediction system 1 includes a plurality of radio wave receiving units 10, an operation unit 20, a display unit 30, and a control unit 40 as a rainfall prediction device.

<Radio wave receiver>
As shown in FIG. 1, each of the plurality of radio wave receiving units 10 is provided at a plurality of locations (first location) P1 on the ground. In the present embodiment, the plurality of radio wave receiving units 10 are arranged so as to surround the second place P2 which is a rainfall prediction point. The radio wave receiving unit 10 receives radio waves at the first place P1 provided with the radio wave receiving unit 10, measures radio wave information, and transmits the measured radio wave information to the control unit 40. The radio wave receiving unit 10 measures radio wave information at relatively short intervals (in this embodiment, 1 second intervals). In the present embodiment, the radio wave receiving unit 10 periodically (predetermined time interval) determines the ID (identification information) of the radio wave receiving unit 10 and the reception intensity of the radio wave measured at a predetermined time (10 minutes in the present embodiment). Is transmitted to the control unit 40.

FIG. 3A is a graph showing an example of time-dependent changes between the reception intensity of radio waves of 60 [GHz] at the same position (1 second interval) and the rainfall measured by the overturning rain gauge (10 minute interval). .. FIG. 3B is a graph obtained by converting the reception intensity of the radio wave in FIG. 3A into a fluctuating voltage. As shown in FIG. 3A, the relationship that the reception intensity decreases as the rainfall increases is established. Further, as shown in FIG. 3B, the relationship that the fluctuating voltage increases as the rainfall increases is established. The relationship between the amount of rainfall and the received intensity or the fluctuating voltage is due to the fact that the radio wave intensity is attenuated due to the presence of rainfall and the reflected radio wave intensity is increased due to raindrops. That is, as the amount of rainfall increases, the radio wave is attenuated and the reception intensity of the radio wave is reduced, the voltage of the radio wave is reduced, and the fluctuating voltage is increased.

FIG. 4 is a graph showing an example of time-dependent changes between the reception intensity of 60 [GHz] radio waves (1 second interval) and the rainfall measured by the overturning rain gauge (10 minute interval) at the same location. This is a case where the maximum amount of rainfall is 5 [mm]. FIG. 5 is a graph showing an example of the relationship between the amount of rainfall (10-minute intervals) and the fluctuation voltage of radio waves (1-second intervals) converted into a cumulative value for 10 minutes.
As shown in FIG. 4, the reception intensity of the radio wave changes with time even during 10 minutes, and as shown in FIG. 5, between the rainfall amount and the cumulative value of the fluctuation voltage of the radio wave at the same time. Has a positive correlation. Therefore, it can be seen that by using such a fluctuating voltage or the reception intensity associated with the fluctuating voltage, it is possible to distribute the rainfall for 10 minutes as the rainfall at shorter time intervals.

The radio wave receiving unit 10 may be a radio wave type disdrometer. When the radio wave receiving unit 10 is a radio wave type disdrometer, the radio wave receiving unit 10 calculates the amount of rain based on the radio wave information by using the speedometer side method using Doppler radio waves, and transfers the calculated amount of rain to the control unit 40. Can be sent. That is, the radio wave type disdrometer as the radio wave receiving unit 10 has a function of the radio wave information acquisition unit 42 of the control unit 40 and a part of the functions of the rainfall prediction unit 44, which will be described later. Here, the reception intensity of the radio wave (reflected wave of the radio wave radiated by the disdrometer) received by the radio wave type distorometer increases as the amount of rainfall increases. Similarly, the fluctuation voltage of the radio wave received by the radio wave disdrometer also increases as the amount of rainfall increases, similar to the reception intensity. Further, the radio wave receiving unit 10 may be installed in a structure such as a traffic light. When the radio wave receiving unit 10 is installed in a traffic light or the like, the radio wave receiving unit 10 may be configured to transmit radio wave information to a vehicle (for example, an autonomous driving vehicle) traveling in the vicinity of the traffic light. In this case, the vehicle that has received the radio wave information that correlates with the amount of rainfall can realize safe driving by using the radio wave information. When the radio wave receiving unit 10 is a mobile phone terminal or the like, the reception strength of the radio wave and the position information (latitude and longitude) of the radio wave receiving unit 10 are transmitted to the control unit 40. Further, the frequency band and the like of the radio wave received by the radio wave receiving unit 10 can be appropriately set.

<Operation unit>
As shown in FIG. 2, the operation unit 20 is composed of a keyboard, a mouse, and the like. The operation unit 20 outputs the operation result of the operation unit 20 by the user to the control unit 40. The display unit 30 is composed of a monitor or the like. The display unit 30 displays an image based on the image data output from the control unit 40.

<Control unit (rainfall prediction device)>
The control unit 40 as a rain amount prediction device is composed of a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a ROM (Read-Only Memory), a RAM (Random Access Memory), an input / output circuit, and the like. The control unit 40 includes a storage unit 41, a radio wave information acquisition unit 42, a weather information acquisition unit 43, and a rainfall prediction unit 44 as functional units.

<Memory>
In the storage unit 41, the ID of the radio wave receiving unit 10 and the position information (latitude and longitude) of the first place P1 in which the radio wave receiving unit 10 is provided are stored in association with each other for each radio wave receiving unit 10. , The position information (latitude and longitude) of the second place P2 is stored. The data stored in the storage unit 41 can be updated (added, modified, deleted, etc.) by the operation of the operation unit 20 by the user.

<Radio wave information acquisition unit>
The radio wave information acquisition unit 42 acquires the radio wave information transmitted by the radio wave reception unit 10 and outputs the received radio wave information to the rainfall prediction unit 44. In the following, a case where the radio wave information is the reception strength of the radio wave will be illustrated.

<Weather information acquisition department>
The weather information acquisition unit 43 acquires the weather information of the second place P2 transmitted by the external device 2 and outputs it to the rainfall forecast unit 44. Here, the weather information acquisition unit 43 uses the forecast rainfall of the first place P1 (here, 10-minute rainfall), the forecast rainfall of the second place P2 (here, the 10-minute rainfall), and the current information of the second place P2. Wind information (wind speed and direction) is acquired and output to the rainfall forecasting unit 44.

<Rainfall Prediction Department>
The rain amount prediction unit 44 has acquired and acquired the radio wave information (reception intensity) output from the radio wave information acquisition unit 42 and the weather information (forecast rain amount and wind information) output from the weather information acquisition unit 43. Based on the radio wave information and the weather information, the predicted rainfall amount of the second place P2 and the occurrence time of the predicted rainfall amount are calculated, and the calculation result is displayed on the display unit 30.
The rainfall prediction unit 44 calculates the predicted rainfall at the measurement interval of the radio wave information (in this embodiment, the interval of 1 second). That is, the rainfall forecasting unit 44 can calculate the predicted rainfall at intervals shorter than the forecasted rainfall (10 minutes) in the weather information.

The rainfall prediction unit 44 calculates the peak time of rainfall, the predicted rainfall (peak rainfall) at the peak time, and the peak duration as the calculation result of the predicted rainfall at the second place P2, and displays it on the display unit 30. Further, the rainfall forecasting unit 44 causes the display unit 30 to display the forecasted rainfall (10-minute rainfall) of the second location P2 as the weather information together with the calculation result of the predicted rainfall of the second location P2.

<Calculation of time based on wind speed, etc.>
The rainfall prediction unit 44 calculates the occurrence time of the predicted rainfall based on at least one of the wind speed of the first place P1 and the wind speed of the second place P2 as the weather information, and the movement forecast of the rain cloud.
This takes into consideration the influence of the time, wind, high-rise buildings, etc. of the rain clouds over the first place P1 moving to the sky above the second place P2. For example, in the rainfall prediction unit 44, the higher the wind speed of the first place P1 or the second place P2, the more the interval between the measurement time of the radio wave information at the first place P1 and the predicted time of occurrence of the predicted rainfall at the second place P2. Calculate the time of occurrence of the predicted rainfall so that That is, the rainfall prediction unit 44 can match the predicted rainfall with the predicted rainfall based on the time when the predicted rainfall occurs and the time of the predicted rainfall.

<Selection of radio wave receiver according to wind direction, etc.>
Further, the rain amount prediction unit 44 is based on at least one of the wind direction of the first place P1 as the weather information, the wind direction of the second place P2, and the movement forecast of the rain cloud, and at least among the plurality of radio wave receiving units 10. One radio wave receiving unit 10 is selected, and the forecast rainfall of the second place P2 is calculated based on the radio wave information from the selected radio wave receiving unit 10.
Specifically, the rainfall prediction unit 44 selects the radio wave receiving unit 10 provided at a position upwind of the second place P2.

<Correction of radio wave information>
The rainfall prediction unit 44 corrects the radio wave information from the selected radio wave receiving unit 10. In the present embodiment, the rainfall prediction unit 44 uses the rainfall (prediction value or actual measurement value) of the first place P1 where the radio wave reception unit 10 is installed at the time when the radio wave information from the radio wave reception unit 10 is measured. , A correction coefficient is calculated so that the integrated value of the radio wave information matches the rainfall amount of the first place P1 at the integrated time, and the radio wave information is corrected using such a correction coefficient. By such a correction, it is possible to prevent the influence of an error or the like for each product of the radio wave receiving unit 10. That is, the rainfall prediction unit 44 corrects the integrated value of the predicted rainfall at the first place P1 from a certain time to the lapse of a predetermined time so that the predicted rainfall or the actually measured rainfall at the first place P1 at the same time matches. Determine the coefficient. The correction coefficient is the integral value of the radio wave information (for example, the reception intensity of radio waves) at the first place P1 from a certain time to the lapse of a predetermined time, and the predicted rain amount or the measured rain amount at the first place P1 at the same time. It may be determined to match.

When the radio wave receiving unit 10 transmits the corrected radio wave information, the rainfall prediction unit 44 can omit such correction.

<Operation example>
Here, the rainfall prediction method in the rainfall prediction system 1 of the present invention will be described by taking as an example the case where the rain clouds move in the order of the sky above the first place C → the sky above the first place B → the sky above the second place A.
In such an example, rainfall prediction unit 44 calculates a prediction rainfall second location A at time _t 1 ~t ₂ based on the radio wave information of the first location B at time _t 0 ~t _1, time _t 0 ~t It calculates the predicted rainfall in the second location a at time _t 2 ~t ₃ based on the radio wave information of the first location C at ₁ (time _{t 0, t 1, t 2} , t 3, ... are equally spaced). Actually, the relationship between the measurement time of the radio wave information and the occurrence time of the predicted rainfall changes depending on the distance between the first place P1 and the second place P2, the wind speed, etc. In some cases, it does not.

As shown in FIG. 6, first, the radio wave information acquisition unit 42 acquires _{the radio wave information (reception intensity) at times t 0 to t 1} transmitted by the plurality of radio wave reception units 10 (step S1), and acquires the weather information. The unit 43 acquires the weather information transmitted by the external device 2 (step S2).

Subsequently, the rainfall prediction unit 44, the weather information acquired (e.g., wind direction and wind speed of the second location A at time t ₁₎ based on, among radio wave information from a plurality of radio receiver 10, rainfall prediction The radio wave information used for is selected (step S3). In particular, rainfall prediction unit 44, and direction of the second location P2 at time t _1, the position information of the first location P1 and the second place P2 stored in the storage unit 41 (A), on the basis, The radio wave information of the radio wave receiving unit 10 provided in the first place P1 (B, C) on the windward side of the second place P2 (A) is selected. Moreover, rainfall prediction unit 44, and the wind speed of the second location P2 at time _{t 1,} the position information of the first location P1 stored in the storage unit 41 (B, C) and a second location P2 (A), the Based on this, when the predicted rainfall calculated from the radio field intensity of the first place P1 (B, C) occurs (the time when the predicted rainfall occurs) is calculated. Here, the rainfall prediction unit 44 sets the reception intensity of the radio waves of the first location P1 (B), which is relatively close to the second location P2 (A), to the rainfall of the second location P2 (A) at _{times t 1 to t 2.} Used for prediction. Moreover, rainfall prediction unit 44, the second location P2 relatively far first place from (A) P1 reception intensity of a radio wave (C), rainfall prediction of the second place P2 (A) at time _t 2 ~t ₃ Used for.

Subsequently, the rainfall prediction unit 44 calculates the predicted rainfall at the second location P2 (A) based on the reception intensity of the radio waves at the selected first location P1 (B, C) (step S4). Here, the time _{t 0 ~t B X (t 0} ) to 10 minutes rainfall (forecast rainfall) in the first place B in _1, predicted rainfall based on the received intensity of the radio wave of the first location B at time _t 0 ~t _{1 R} B (t) changes with time (see FIG. 7 (a)), 10 minutes of rain second location a at time _t 1 ~t ₂ a (forecast rainfall) When _a X _{(t 1),} the time _{t 1} Fixed rainfall in the second location a in ~t ₂ (10 min rainfall) _{a X '(t 1)} is calculated by equation (1). Further, the predicted rainfall _{A X} of the second location A at time _{t 1 ~t 2 '' (t} ) is calculated by equation (2). In the formula (2), _R B in the denominator and numerator _{(t + t} 0 -t ₁₎ corresponds to the correction factor.

On the other hand, _C X _(t 0) to 10 minutes rainfall (forecast rainfall) in the first location C at time _t 0 ~t _1, the first location C at time _t 0 ~t ₁ prediction rainfall based on the reception intensity of radio waves the aging _R C _(t 0) _(see FIG. 7 (b)), a 10-minute rainfall in the second location a at time _t 2 ~t ₃ (forecast rainfall) When _a X _{(t 2),} the time _{t 2} Fixed rainfall in the second location a in ~t ₃ (10 min rainfall) _{a X '(t 2)} is calculated by the equation (3), the predicted rainfall _{a X} of the second location a at time _t 2 ~t _3' '(T) is calculated by the equation (4).

Rainfall prediction unit 44 can be obtained by combining the calculation result of the equation (2) and (4), the predicted rainfall _{A X} of the second location A at time _t 1 ~t ₃ '' a (t) ( See FIG. 7 (c)).

Incidentally, rainfall prediction unit 44 may calculate the predicted rainfall in the first place B at time t ₁ ~t ₂ based on the radio wave information of the first location C at time t ₀ ~t _1.
Time _{t 0 ~t C X (t 0} ) to 10 minutes rainfall (forecast rainfall) in the first location C at _1, the time _t 1 10 minute rainfall of the first locations B in ~t ₂ (forecast rainfall) the _B X ( When t ₁₎ to, modify rainfall first location B at time _t 1 ~t ₂ (10 min rainfall) _{B X '(t 1)} is calculated by equation (5), first at time _t 1 ~t ₂ predicted rainfall _{B X} one place B '' (t) is calculated by equation (6).

The control unit (rainfall prediction device) 40 repeatedly executes steps S1 to S4. That is, at the point of time _{t 2, the} or calculates the predicted rainfall in the second location A at time _t 2 ~t ₃ based on the radio wave information of the first location B at time _t 1 ~t _2, time _t 1 ~ The predicted rainfall of the second place A at _{times t 3 to t 4} is calculated based on the radio wave information of the first place C at t _2.

The rainfall prediction system 1 according to the embodiment of the present invention can suitably calculate the predicted rainfall of the second place P2 based on the radio wave information of different places (first place P1).
Further, since the rainfall prediction system 1 uses the radio wave receiving unit 10, maintenance management for preventing the mixing and accumulation of foreign substances (sand, leaves, dust, dust, etc.) as compared with the case of using the overturning rain gauge. Is unnecessary, and maintainability can be improved.

Further, since the rainfall prediction system 1 uses the reception intensity or the fluctuating voltage of the radio wave received by the radio wave receiving unit 10 as the radio wave information, the predicted rainfall of the second place P2 can be calculated more preferably.

Further, since the rainfall prediction system 1 distributes the forecasted rainfall for a predetermined time at the second place P2 within a predetermined time based on the radio wave information measured at intervals shorter than the predetermined time, the predicted rainfall for a short time is preferably used. Can be calculated.

Further, since the rainfall prediction system 1 calculates the occurrence time of the predicted rainfall based on at least one of the wind speed and the movement forecast of the rain cloud, the predicted rainfall in a short time can be suitably calculated together with the occurrence time.

Further, the rain amount prediction system 1 selects at least one radio wave receiving unit 10 from the plurality of radio wave receiving units 10 based on at least one of the wind direction and the movement forecast of the rain cloud, and is based on the radio wave information of the selected radio wave receiving unit 10. Since the predicted rainfall is calculated, the radio wave receiving unit 10 suitable for the rainfall prediction can be selected, and the predicted rainfall in a short time can be calculated more preferably.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments and can be appropriately modified without departing from the gist of the present invention. For example, the wind direction and the wind speed may be measured values at the first place P1 and the second place P2. That is, a wind direction and wind speed meter for measuring the wind direction and speed of the first place P1 is provided at the first place P1, and the radio wave receiving unit 10 sends the wind direction and wind speed measured by the corresponding wind direction and wind speed meter to the control unit 40 together with the radio wave information. It may be configured to transmit. Similarly, a wind direction wind speed meter for measuring the wind direction and speed at the second place P2 may be provided at the second place P2, and the wind direction wind speed meter may transmit the measured wind direction and speed to the control unit 40. ..

Further, the rainfall prediction unit 44 selects the radio wave receiving unit 10 based on the wind direction and the like, and the radio wave information acquisition unit 42 collects the radio wave information by communicating with the selected radio wave receiving unit 10. You may.

Further, the radio wave information is not limited to the reception intensity or the fluctuating voltage of the radio wave received by the radio wave receiving unit 10, and a physical quantity related to the radio wave such as a frequency change amount can be used as the radio wave information.

1 Rainfall prediction system 10 Radio wave receiver 40 Control unit (rainfall prediction device)
42 Radio wave information acquisition department 43 Weather information acquisition department 44 Rainfall forecasting department

Claims (2)

A radio wave information acquisition unit that acquires radio wave information related to radio waves received by the radio wave reception unit installed in the first place,
A rainfall prediction unit that calculates the predicted rainfall at a second location different from the first location based on the acquired radio wave information.
Equipped with a,
The radio wave information is the reception strength or fluctuating voltage of the radio wave received by the radio wave receiving unit.
A plurality of the radio wave receiving units are installed in different first places so as to surround the second place.
The rainfall prediction unit
The radio wave receiving unit is selected based on the wind direction of the plurality of the first place and the position information of the plurality of the first place and the second place, and based on the radio wave information of the selected radio wave receiving unit. Then, the predicted rainfall is calculated.
Rainfall characterized by calculating the occurrence time of the predicted rainfall based on the wind speed of the first place corresponding to the selected radio wave receiving unit and the position information of the first place and the second place. Predictor. It is equipped with a weather information acquisition unit that acquires the forecast rainfall for a predetermined time at the second location.
The rainfall prediction unit
To calculate the predicted rainfall in a time shorter than the predetermined time by allocating the acquired forecast rainfall within the predetermined time based on the radio wave information measured at intervals shorter than the predetermined time. The rainfall forecasting apparatus according to claim 1.

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