JP7079938B2 - Impact assessment method and impact assessment system - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to an impact assessment method and an impact assessment system.

The spread of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) services has brought about changes in people's lifestyles (Non-Patent Document 1). For example, in purchasing behavior, purchasing processes such as product search, comparison, and purchase on the Internet are pervasive without going to an actual store. Online shopping users can enjoy the convenience of being able to purchase at a lower price than the actual store and eliminating the need to move to the store.

Due to such lifestyle changes, the consumption behavior of how many yen people spend on what activities changes, and the time consumption behavior of how many hours people spend on what activities changes. Such changes in the cost and time consumption structure affect the global environment. In the future, it is expected that ICT services will become more sophisticated and diversified, and further lifestyle changes are expected. Therefore, it is important to predict future environmental impacts from the viewpoint of environmental policy.

Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 2011 White Paper on Information and Communication, 2011 Zhang Xiaohui et al., "Study on Evaluation of Rebound Effect by Using ICT", IEICE Society Lecture Papers, 2016 Yoshiyuki Hondo et al., "Proposal of Rebound Effect Estimation Method Based on Entropy Principle", Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Vol.5, No.1, pp.122-130 (2009/1)

So far, changes in CO ₂ emissions have been evaluated through changes in lifestyle due to the use of ICT services (Non-Patent Document 2). In Non-Patent Document 2, the activities generated by allocating the saved cost (Inc) and time (T) for individual ICT services such as online shopping and telework are investigated by questionnaire, and the following formulas (1) and (1) and ( According to 2), the CO ₂ emissions caused by each activity are calculated as the primary rebound effect (RE). The primary rebound effect here is the CO ₂ emissions due to the generation of new activities by saving individual costs and time through ICT services.

RE _(i) = T _(i) × E _{ST (i)} ＋ Inc'(i) × Es _{Inc (i)} Equation (1)
Inc' _(i) = Inc _(i) －T _(i) × C _(i) Equation (2)
RE: Primary rebound effect
T: Surplus time due to ICT use
Inc': Corrected surplus income from the use of ICT (surplus income obtained by subtracting the amount of activities that occur using surplus time from the total surplus income because surplus income and surplus time overlap)
Inc: Surplus income from ICT use
i: Types of ICT services
C: Income consumption intensity per unit surplus time (amount required for activities performed in the saved time per unit)
Es _T : CO ₂ emission intensity per unit surplus time (CO ₂ emissions generated by performing activities in the saved time per unit)
Es _Inc : CO ₂ emission intensity per unit surplus income (CO ₂ emissions generated by activities performed using the saved cost per unit)
There are the following barriers to applying Non-Patent Document 2 to future environmental impact prediction.

When ICT services become more sophisticated and diversified, it is thought that the costs and time saved and the activities generated by allocating them will change. As an example of an ICT service, "distribution of clothes using the Internet" is assumed. Until now, "online mail order" to buy clothes was the mainstream, but "net rental" service to rent new clothes has prospered. If the cost required for the user to purchase clothes etc. is saved by online rental, the user can use the saved cost as a source of funds, for example, "exercise / sports" or "purchase of dietary supplements" to maintain the body shape. It is expected to do such things. In order to define the activities (exercise, food purchase, etc.) that will be generated by allocating the saved cost and time, we will conduct a questionnaire survey each time we anticipate the high functionality and diversification of ICT services. Since it is necessary to investigate new activities, it requires a great deal of labor and cost.

The present invention has been made in view of the above points, and an object of the present invention is to propose a technique capable of evaluating the influence of the use of ICT services from the viewpoint of environment and economy.

The impact assessment method according to one embodiment of the present invention is
It is an impact assessment method executed by the impact assessment system for assessing the impact of using ICT services.
An input procedure that accepts information indicating the ICT service to be evaluated and input between the base year and the evaluation target year,
The amount of expenditure of goods and services distributed via the ICT service to be evaluated in the base year and the evaluation target year stored in the first storage unit is acquired, and the base year and the evaluation target year are obtained. The spending calculation procedure to calculate the difference between spending and
The time required to obtain the goods / services stored in the second storage unit via the ICT service to be evaluated in the base year and the evaluation target year is acquired, and the base year and the evaluation target year are obtained. The time required calculation procedure for calculating the difference in time required from the year to be evaluated, and the time required calculation procedure.
Expenditure for activities generated by the difference in the amount of expenditure and the difference in the required time based on the relationship between the surplus amount and the activity occurrence ratio and the relationship between the surplus time and the activity occurrence ratio stored in the third storage unit. The supply-demand change calculation procedure that calculates the change in the amount and calculates the change in the supply-demand amount to the industry,
An evaluation procedure for evaluating the impact of using the ICT service to be evaluated by performing an equilibrium calculation while reflecting the change in the supply and demand amount in the input-output table, and
It is characterized by having.

Further, the impact assessment system according to one embodiment of the present invention is
An impact assessment system for assessing the impact of using ICT services.
A spending amount storage unit that stores the spending amount of goods and services distributed through ICT services in a certain year,
A time-required storage unit that stores the time required to obtain goods and services distributed via ICT services in a certain year.
The activity occurrence ratio storage unit that stores the relationship between the surplus amount and the activity occurrence ratio and the relationship between the surplus time and the activity occurrence ratio,
An input unit that accepts information indicating the ICT service to be evaluated and input between the base year and the evaluation target year,
From the spending amount storage unit, the spending amount of goods and services distributed via the ICT service to be evaluated in the base year and the evaluation target year is acquired, and the spending between the base year and the evaluation target year is obtained. The difference in the amount is calculated, and the time required to obtain the goods / services distributed via the ICT service to be evaluated in the base year and the evaluation target year is acquired from the required time storage unit, and the standard is obtained. A difference calculation unit that calculates the difference in the required time between the year and the evaluation target year,
The supply-demand change calculation unit that calculates the change in the amount of expenditure for the activity caused by the difference in the amount of expenditure and the difference in the required time with reference to the activity occurrence rate storage unit, and calculates the change in the amount of supply and demand to the industry. When,
An evaluation unit that evaluates the impact of using the ICT service to be evaluated by performing an equilibrium calculation while reflecting the change in the supply and demand amount in the input-output table.
It is characterized by having.

It will be possible to evaluate the impact of using ICT services from the perspective of the environment and economy.

It is a figure which shows the example of the network configuration in embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the hardware configuration example of the computer which comprises the influence evaluation system in embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the functional structure example of the influence evaluation system in embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart for demonstrating an example of the processing procedure executed by an impact assessment system. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the surplus amount and the activity occurrence rate. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the surplus time and the activity occurrence rate. It is a figure which shows the industry corresponding to each activity, and the amount of change in expenditure. It is a figure which shows the input-output table. It is a figure which shows the model for performing the equilibrium calculation.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a network configuration according to an embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 1, the impact assessment system 10 is connected to one or more user terminals 20 via a network such as the Internet or a LAN (Local Area Network).

The impact assessment system 10 is one or more computers that evaluate the impact on the environment and economy of the use of ICT services. Note that ICT services are not specific services provided by a specific business operator, but are concepts that are distinguished by service category or type, such as "clothes rental" service and "accommodation reservation" service. Corresponds to. In the "clothes rental" service, the goods "clothes" are distributed through the ICT service, and in the "accommodation reservation" service, the service "accommodation" is distributed via the ICT service. In this way, the goods and services distributed through ICT services differ depending on the content of the ICT services.

The impact assessment system 10 focuses on "goods / services" distributed via ICT services, and the amount of savings (surplus amount) in spending on the "goods / services" and the settlement of the "goods / services", etc. Based on the assumption that if the time required for the service is the same (surplus time), the surplus amount and surplus time will be allocated to the same activity ratio even if the contents of the ICT service are different. And assess the impact on the economy.

The impact assessment system 10 holds data on the relationship between surplus amount / surplus time and activity occurrence ratio, which will be described later, in advance, and per person in the evaluation target year and base year for goods and services distributed via ICT services. The difference in the amount of spending Δb and the difference in the required time Δh are obtained, and the change in the total amount of spending for each activity is obtained from the above data and Δb and Δh in consideration of both cost saving and time saving. Then, the above-mentioned changes in total expenditures are obtained for all types of activities, and an input-output table that reflects the changes in total expenditures in each activity is created by the applied general equilibrium model. The impact assessment system 10 estimates GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and CO ₂ emissions in the evaluation target year from the input-output table after reflection.

The user terminal 20 is a terminal that accepts input of evaluation conditions for the impact evaluation system 10 from the user and outputs (displays) the evaluation result by the impact evaluation system 10. For example, a PC (Personal Computer), a smartphone, a tablet terminal, or the like may be used as the user terminal 20.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of hardware configuration of a computer constituting the impact assessment system 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention. The computer constituting the impact evaluation system 10 has a drive device 100, an auxiliary storage device 102, a memory device 103, a CPU 104, an interface device 105, and the like, which are connected to each other by a bus B, respectively.

The program that realizes the processing in the impact evaluation system 10 is provided by a recording medium 101 such as a CD-ROM. When the recording medium 101 storing the program is set in the drive device 100, the program is installed in the auxiliary storage device 102 from the recording medium 101 via the drive device 100. However, the program does not necessarily have to be installed from the recording medium 101, and may be downloaded from another computer via the network. The auxiliary storage device 102 stores the installed program and also stores necessary files, data, and the like.

The memory device 103 reads and stores the program from the auxiliary storage device 102 when the program is instructed to start. The CPU 104 executes the function related to the impact evaluation system 10 according to the program stored in the memory device 103. The interface device 105 is used as an interface for connecting to a network.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a functional configuration example of the impact assessment system 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 3, the impact evaluation system 10 includes an input unit 11, a difference calculation unit 12, a supply / demand change calculation unit 13, an equilibrium calculation unit 14, an output unit 15, and the like. Each of these parts is realized by a process of causing the CPU 104 to execute one or more programs installed in the impact evaluation system 10.

The impact assessment system 10 also uses databases such as expenditure DB 21, settlement / travel time DB 22, viewing time DB 23, activity occurrence ratio DB 24, activity basic unit DB 25, number of users DB 26, and industry-related table DB 27. Each database can be realized by using, for example, an auxiliary storage device 102, a storage device that can be connected to the impact evaluation system 10 via a network, or the like.

The expenditure DB 21 stores the amount of expenditure per unit time (for example, monthly) for goods and services distributed via ICT services in a certain year (including past and future years). For example, in the "clothes rental" service, the annual expenditure for clothes per person is stored regardless of whether or not the ICT service is used.

The settlement / travel time DB 22 stores information for calculating the time required to obtain goods / services distributed via the ICT service in a certain year (including past / future years). For example, in the "clothes rental" service, the average travel time per person when traveling to a store to obtain clothes, the average settlement time per person when making online payments, and the like are stored.

The viewing time DB 23 stores information for calculating the viewing time of the content distribution service. For example, in the "video distribution" service, the average viewing time per person for the video to be distributed is stored.

The data stored in the expenditure DB 21, the settlement / travel time DB 22 and the viewing time DB 23 may be created using, for example, statistical data or forecast reports created by the national government, local governments, or consultants.

The activity occurrence ratio DB 24 stores the relationship between the surplus amount and the activity occurrence ratio and the relationship between the surplus time and the activity occurrence ratio. In the embodiment of the present invention, as described above, the change in people's activities due to cost saving (surplus amount) and time saving (surplus time) through the use of the ICT service is the surplus amount regardless of the ICT service. It is assumed that it will be allocated to other activities at a certain rate according to the value of surplus time. The activity occurrence rate DB 24 stores the relationship between such increase / decrease in cost / time and the affected activity.

The relationship between the surplus amount and the activity occurrence rate is the amount of money (surplus amount) that the user paid for the goods / services distributed through the ICT service by enjoying a certain ICT service. It is the relationship with the ratio of each type of activity that the user will newly start using the surplus amount. This relationship is maintained in a general-purpose data format and is prepared individually for each surplus amount. For example, a questionnaire with a question such as "What kind of activity would you like to start anew if the cost required for goods and services (distributed by ICT services) is saved by 5,000 yen per month?" By doing this for a number of individuals, it is possible to obtain data including the relationship between the surplus amount and the activity occurrence rate. As a result, for example, each activity when the surplus amount is 500 yen, 2,000 yen, 5,000 yen, 10,000 yen, etc. (for example, sleep, personal affairs, meals, commuting / school, work, schoolwork, housework, nursing / nursing) , Childcare, shopping, traveling (excluding commuting to work / school), TV / radio / newspaper / magazine, rest / relaxation, learning / self-development / training (other than schoolwork), hobbies / entertainment, sports, volunteer activities / social participation activities, The rate at which dating / dating) occurs can be obtained. Since the questionnaire can be obtained in advance for each surplus amount, there is no need to conduct a new questionnaire even if the function or form of the ICT service changes.

The relationship between the surplus time and the activity occurrence rate is the time (surplus time) in which the time required for the user to settle or move the goods / services distributed through the ICT service is saved by enjoying a certain ICT service. It is the relationship with the ratio of each type of activity that the user will newly start using the surplus time. This relationship is maintained in a general-purpose data format and is prepared individually for each surplus time. For example, a question such as "What kind of activity would you like to start if the time required to purchase goods / services (distributed by ICT services) is saved by 0.5 hours a month?" By conducting the questionnaire to a predetermined number of individuals, it is possible to obtain data including the relationship between the surplus time and the activity occurrence rate. As a result, for example, each activity when the surplus time is 0.5 hours, 1 hour, 2 hours, etc. per month (for example, sleep, personal affairs, meals, commuting / school, work, schoolwork, housework, nursing / nursing, childcare, etc. Shopping, traveling (excluding commuting to work / school), TV / radio / newspaper / magazine, rest / relaxation, learning / self-development / training (other than schoolwork), hobbies / entertainment, sports, volunteer activities / social participation activities, dating / socializing ) Occurs. Since the questionnaire can be obtained in advance for each surplus time via the ICT service, it is not necessary to conduct a new questionnaire even if the function or form of the ICT service changes.

Here, the classifications of activities assigned in the relational data of both surplus time and surplus cost do not necessarily have to be the same. Ultimately, if we can carry out the "correspondence between activities and industries" described later and come down to which industry in the input-output table corresponds to, there will be no problem in estimating CO ₂ emissions by equilibrium calculation.

The activity basic unit DB 25 stores data on the cost paid to perform a certain activity for a unit time (for example, one hour). For example, Table 3 of Non-Patent Document 3 exemplifies the action cost (= activity basic unit) per hour in some actions (= activities), and 1 when performing an action of "hobby / entertainment". The amount of spending per hour is said to be 662 yen.

Number of users DB 26 stores the number of users of ICT services in a certain year (including past and future years).

The input-output table DB 27 stores information indicating an input-output table for a reference year (hereinafter referred to as “base year”). The input-output table is a table (listed in matrix format) that shows the inter-industry transactions of goods and services carried out in a certain area such as a country or prefecture for a certain period (usually one year). To give a simplified example, the financial industry received a supply of 100 yen from the information and communication industry and 200 yen from the electric power industry, and produced 500 yen (added value is 200 yen). Has been done. The supply and demand of each industry match. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications prepares an input-output table every five years and publishes it as statistical information.

As described above, the impact assessment system 10 spends on goods and services distributed via ICT services, the time required to obtain the goods and services, and the viewing time of electronic contents (all per user). By storing the amount) in the expenditure DB 21, the settlement / travel time DB 22 and the viewing time DB 23, the increase / decrease in the cost / time is calculated in each functional unit. The impact assessment system 10 stores the relationship between the increase / decrease in cost / time and the affected activity (relationship between surplus amount / surplus time and activity occurrence ratio) in the activity occurrence ratio DB 24, and in each functional unit, the ICT service From the increase / decrease in cost / time due to dissemination, the increase / decrease in cost allocated to each activity is calculated using the data of the activity basic unit DB25 and the number of users DB26. Furthermore, the increase / decrease in costs allocated to each activity is reflected in the input-output table of the input-output table DB27, and an equilibrium calculation is performed to calculate changes in CO ₂ emissions and GDP in the evaluation target year. Each functional part of the impact assessment system 10 will be described in detail below.

Hereinafter, the processing procedure executed by the impact assessment system 10 will be described. FIG. 4 is a flowchart for explaining an example of the processing procedure executed by the impact assessment system 10.

In step S101, the input unit 11 receives the evaluation condition input in any user terminal 20 from the user terminal 20. The evaluation condition includes information (for example, a service name) indicating an ICT service (hereinafter referred to as "evaluation target service") to be evaluated by the user, an evaluation target year, and a base year.

For example, when a user wants to calculate changes in CO ₂ emissions and GDP in 2020 when the "clothes rental" service is based on 2013, the "clothes rental" service, which is the evaluation target service, is the base year. 2013 and 2020, which is the evaluation target year, are entered.

In step S102, the difference calculation unit 12 acquires the expenditure amount of the goods / services distributed via the evaluation target service in the base year and the evaluation target year from the expenditure DB 21, and spends between the base year and the evaluation target year. Calculate the difference in forehead (Δb). The difference in the amount of expenditure may be calculated per month, once, or per day, and shall be adjusted so that the annual expenditure for each activity described later can be calculated.

For example, regarding the "clothes rental" service, the expenditure DB21 stores information that the expenditure for clothes is 15,000 yen / month per person in 2013 and 10,000 yen / month per person in 2020. ing. The difference calculation unit 12 calculates the difference (Δb) of the amount spent on clothes as follows.

Δb = 1.5 (10,000 yen / month) -1 (10,000 yen / month) = 0.5 (10,000 yen / month) Equation (3)
In step S103, the difference calculation unit 12 acquires the time required to obtain the goods / services distributed via the evaluation target service in the base year and the evaluation target year from the settlement / travel time DB 22, and evaluates the base year. Calculate the difference (Δh) in the required time from the target year. The difference in required time may be calculated per month, once per day, or per day, and shall be adjusted so that the annual expenditure for each activity described later can be calculated.

For example, regarding the “clothes rental” service, the payment / travel time DB 22 stores information that the time required to obtain clothes is 3 hours / time in 2013 and 1 hour / time in 2020. The difference calculation unit 12 calculates the difference (Δh) of the time required to obtain clothes as follows. The number of uses is assumed to be 3 times a month (3 days).

Δh = 3 (time / time) -1 (time / time) = 2 (time / time) Equation (4)
In step S104, it is determined whether the evaluation target service is a content distribution service. If the evaluation target service is a content distribution service, the process proceeds to step S105, and if the evaluation target service is not a content distribution service, the process proceeds to step S106.

In step S105, the difference calculation unit 12 acquires the viewing time of the content delivered via the evaluation target service from the viewing time DB 23, adds the content viewing time to the difference in the required time, and calculates Δh.

For example, the "clothes rental" service is not a content distribution service, so there is no content viewing time. On the other hand, since the "video distribution" service is a content distribution service, the time required to obtain the "video distribution" service includes the viewing time of the video distribution.

In step S106, the supply / demand change calculation unit 13 determines the activity generated by the difference in the expenditure amount (Δb) and the difference in the required time (Δh) with reference to the activity occurrence ratio DB 24, and determines the activity generated by the difference in the required time (Δh). Calculate the change and calculate the change in the amount of supply and demand to the industry.

From the relationship between the surplus amount of the activity occurrence ratio DB24 and the activity occurrence ratio, the change (DI) of the expenditure amount to the activity due to the difference (Δb) of the expenditure amount can be calculated by the following formula.

DI _i = Δb × U × pi _i equation (5)
U: Number of service users
pi: Activity rate
i: Subscript indicating the type of activity The activity occurrence rate DB24 stores the relationship between the surplus amount acquired in advance by a questionnaire or the like and the activity occurrence rate. FIG. 5 shows, for example, the ratio of activities generated by saving 5,000 yen / month. The ratio of hobbies / entertainment generated by saving 5,000 yen / month is 11.5%.

For example, regarding the “clothes rental” service, the number of users DB 26 remembers that the number of service users in 2020 will be 4 million in Japan as a whole. The supply / demand change calculation unit 13 calculates the change (DI) in the amount of expenditure for hobbies / entertainment due to the difference (Δb) in the amount of expenditure as follows using the above equation (5).

DI _i = 0.5 (10,000 yen / month) x 12 (months) x 4 million (people) x 11.5 (%) = 27.6 billion (yen) Equation (6)
Activity occurrence ratio From the relationship between the surplus time of the activity occurrence ratio and the activity occurrence ratio, the change (DT) in the amount of expenditure for the activity due to the difference (Δh) in the required time can be calculated by the following formula. Here, in order to obtain a change in the amount of expenditure for the activity, the time spent on the activity is converted into an amount by referring to the activity basic unit DB25.

DT _i = Δh × U × pt _i × C _i Equation (7)
U: Number of service users
pt: Activity rate
C: Expenditure required to carry out unit-hour activities
i: Subscript indicating the type of activity The activity occurrence rate DB 24 stores the relationship between the surplus time acquired in advance by a questionnaire or the like and the activity occurrence rate. FIG. 6 shows, for example, the percentage of activity generated by saving 0.5 hours, 1 hour, and 2 hours. The percentage of hobbies / entertainment generated by saving two hours is 16.2%. Further, in the activity basic unit DB 25, it is stored that the amount of expenditure for performing hobbies / entertainment for one hour is 662 yen.

For example, regarding the “clothes rental” service, the supply / demand change calculation unit 13 uses the above equation (7) to change the amount of spending on hobbies / entertainment due to the difference (Δh) in the required time as follows (DT). ) Is calculated.

DT _i = 2 (hours / time) x 3 (times) x 12 (months) x 4 million (people) x 16.2 (%) x 662 (yen / hour) = 30.9 billion (yen) Equation (8)
Since the total amount of DI _i and DT _i above is the total amount of expenditure for activity i, the increase in the amount of expenditure for hobbies and entertainment is from equations (6) and (8) to 27.6 billion (yen) + 309. 100 million (yen) = 58.5 billion (yen).

Other activities (sleep, personal affairs, etc.) are calculated in the same way, and as shown in FIG. 7, changes to the amount of expenditure are summarized for each activity. In FIG. 7, it is assumed that the correspondence between the activity and the industry, which activity corresponds to which industry, is predetermined. Correspondence between an activity and an industry is to associate the type of an activity with the industry listed in the input-output table. Since the input-output table is a model based on "industry", the amount of demand for "industry" listed in the input-output table will increase by xx yen for newly generated activities using surplus amount / surplus time. It is necessary to make the correspondence. For example, the activity of "consultation / medical treatment" is associated with the industry of "medical insurance industry" in the input-output table, and the saved xx yen is used to read that the demand (supply and demand) for the medical insurance industry increases by xx yen. ..

The supply / demand change calculation unit 13 aggregates changes in expenditures for each industry and calculates the annual total amount of changes in supply / demand to each industry. It is assumed that price fluctuation factors other than ICT, such as changes in taste and technology, are the same for the criteria and evaluation targets. Changes in prices can be corrected by including a price index in the model.

In step S107, the equilibrium calculation unit 14 evaluates the influence of the use of the evaluation target service by performing the equilibrium calculation in a state where the change in the supply and demand amount to each industry is reflected in the industry-related table, and in the evaluation target year. Calculate changes in CO ₂ emissions and GDP.

The equilibrium calculation is a calculation performed so that the supply and demand match when the input-output table changes due to a change in the amount of demand for a certain industry. It is widely used to evaluate the economic and environmental effects of policies, and the mechanism of this calculation has been established as a Computable General Equilibrium model. Since the input-output table is expressed in monetary amounts, the calculation is first performed on a monetary basis, and CO ₂ emissions are calculated from energy consumption.

For example, regarding the “clothes rental” service, the amount of change in expenditures in the transportation industry is 14.77 billion (yen) + 4.47 billion (yen) = 19.24 billion (yen) from Fig. 7. This is added to the consumption of the final demand of the transportation industry in the example of the input-output table shown in FIG. The amount of change in expenditures of other industries shown in Fig. 7 is also reflected in the input-output table.

Since the equilibrium calculation becomes complicated as the number of industries increases, the equilibrium calculation will be described by taking the model of 2 goods, 2 sectors, and 1 consumer shown in FIG. 9 as an example.

Goods X and Y correspond to intermediate inputs in the input-output table, and departments X and Y correspond to intermediate demands in the input-output table. For example, if X is the transportation industry, the amount of change in expenditure in the transportation industry, 19.24 billion yen, is added to the final consumption (C _X ) of the good X. C _Y also reflects changes in industrial spending.

Sector X produces good Q _X based on capital K _X and labor L _X. Since supply and demand match, Q _X = C _X. The household (final consumption) provides capital K and labor L as production factors, earns income as compensation, consumes good X and good Y (C _X , C _Y ), and obtains utility U. Since households act to maximize utility in their income, the following formula holds.

Max U = u (C _X , C _Y ) Equation (9)
st P _X・ C _X ＋ P _Y・ C _Y = P _L・ L * ＋ P _K・ K * Equation (10)
The behavior of each production department (i = X, Y) is expressed by the following formula. Each production sector acts to maximize profits under capital and labor constraints.

Max π _i = P _i・ Q _i －P _K・ K _i －P _L・ L _i Equation (11)
st Q _i = f _i (K _i , L _i ) Equation (12)
Considering the match between supply and demand, the following equation holds.

Q _X = C _X equation (13)
Q _Y = C _Y equation (14)
K * = K _X + K _Y formula (15)
L * = L _X + L _Y formula (16)
By solving the above formula, the production value of each department and the transaction value between departments can be obtained, and the total calculation (Q _X , Q _Y ) can be obtained. Since the total calculation in FIG. 9 corresponds to the domestic production value in the input-output table, the change in gross value added excluding the intermediate input from the domestic production value is calculated.

As a result, the GDP of the “clothes rental” service is calculated to increase by 100 billion yen compared to 2013, the base year. Furthermore, the change in CO ₂ emissions is calculated from the change in the production value of the industry related to energy such as electricity and gas in the input-output table. Regarding the “clothes rental” service, CO ₂ emissions are calculated to increase by 5,000 tons compared to 2013, the base year.

In step S108, the output unit 15 transmits the calculated CO ₂ emission amount and the change in GDP to the user terminal 20 of the transmission source of the evaluation conditions. As a result, the user can grasp the evaluation result based on the evaluation condition.

As described above, according to this embodiment, the impact of using the ICT service can be evaluated from the viewpoint of environment and economy. More specifically, it will be possible to predict future environmental impacts through changes in people's lifestyles due to the spread of ICT services, including changes in industrial activities, without depending on the functions and forms of ICT services. It can be used as a guideline for environmental policy formulation from the perspective of ICT services and lifestyle.

This embodiment is based on the assumption that if the cost and time saved are the same, the activities will be allocated at the same rate regardless of the content of the ICT service. Therefore, it is assumed that the function and form of the ICT service have changed. However, it is not necessary to conduct a questionnaire each time to investigate the user's activity. That is, it is possible to reduce the cost and labor in estimating CO ₂ emissions.

In the present embodiment, the expenditure DB 21 is an example of the expenditure amount storage unit and the first storage unit. The settlement / movement time DB 22 is an example of a required time storage unit and a second storage unit. The activity occurrence rate DB 24 is an example of the activity generation rate storage unit and the third storage unit. The equilibrium calculation unit 14 is an example of an evaluation unit.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail above, the present invention is not limited to such specific embodiments, and various aspects are within the scope of the gist of the present invention described in the claims. It can be transformed and changed.

11 Input unit 12 Difference calculation unit 13 Supply and demand change calculation unit 14 Equilibrium calculation unit 15 Output unit 21 Expenditure DB
22 Settlement / travel time DB
23 Viewing time DB
24 Activity rate DB
25 Activity basic unit DB
26 Number of users DB
27 Input-output table DB

Claims (8)

It is an impact assessment method executed by the impact assessment system for assessing the impact of using ICT services.
An input procedure that accepts information indicating the ICT service to be evaluated and input between the base year and the evaluation target year,
The amount of expenditure of goods and services distributed via the ICT service to be evaluated in the base year and the evaluation target year stored in the first storage unit is acquired, and the base year and the evaluation target year are obtained. The spending calculation procedure to calculate the difference between spending and
The time required to obtain the goods / services stored in the second storage unit via the ICT service to be evaluated in the base year and the evaluation target year is acquired, and the base year and the evaluation target year are obtained. The time required calculation procedure for calculating the difference in time required from the year to be evaluated, and the time required calculation procedure.
Expenditure for activities generated by the difference in the amount of expenditure and the difference in the required time based on the relationship between the surplus amount and the activity occurrence ratio and the relationship between the surplus time and the activity occurrence ratio stored in the third storage unit. The supply-demand change calculation procedure that calculates the change in the amount and calculates the change in the supply-demand amount to the industry,
An evaluation procedure for evaluating the impact of using the ICT service to be evaluated by performing an equilibrium calculation while reflecting the change in the supply and demand amount in the input-output table, and
Impact assessment method. When the ICT service to be evaluated is a content distribution service
The effect according to claim 1, wherein the required time calculation procedure calculates the difference in required time between the base year and the evaluation target year by adding the viewing time of the content distribution service to the required time. Evaluation method. The impact assessment method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the assessment procedure calculates changes in CO ₂ emissions and GDP in the evaluation target year. Of claims 1 to 3, the supply-demand change calculation procedure calculates a change in the supply-demand amount to the industry from a change in the amount of expenditure for the activity based on a predetermined correspondence between the activity and the industry. The impact assessment method according to any one of the items. An impact assessment system for assessing the impact of using ICT services.
A spending amount storage unit that stores the spending amount of goods and services distributed through ICT services in a certain year,
A time-required storage unit that stores the time required to obtain goods and services distributed via ICT services in a certain year.
The activity occurrence ratio storage unit that stores the relationship between the surplus amount and the activity occurrence ratio and the relationship between the surplus time and the activity occurrence ratio,
An input unit that accepts information indicating the ICT service to be evaluated and input between the base year and the evaluation target year,
From the spending amount storage unit, the spending amount of goods and services distributed via the ICT service to be evaluated in the base year and the evaluation target year is acquired, and the spending between the base year and the evaluation target year is obtained. The difference in the amount is calculated, and the time required to obtain the goods / services distributed via the ICT service to be evaluated in the base year and the evaluation target year is acquired from the required time storage unit, and the standard is obtained. A difference calculation unit that calculates the difference in the required time between the year and the evaluation target year,
The supply-demand change calculation unit that calculates the change in the amount of expenditure for the activity caused by the difference in the amount of expenditure and the difference in the required time with reference to the activity occurrence rate storage unit, and calculates the change in the amount of supply and demand to the industry. When,
An evaluation unit that evaluates the impact of using the ICT service to be evaluated by performing an equilibrium calculation while reflecting the change in the supply and demand amount in the input-output table.
Impact assessment system. When the ICT service to be evaluated is a content distribution service
The impact evaluation according to claim 5, wherein the difference calculation unit calculates the difference in the required time between the base year and the evaluation target year by adding the viewing time of the content distribution service to the required time. system. The impact assessment system according to claim 5 or 6, wherein the evaluation unit calculates changes in CO ₂ emissions and GDP in the evaluation target year. Of claims 5 to 7, the supply-demand change calculation unit calculates a change in the supply-demand amount to the industry from a change in the amount of expenditure for the activity based on a predetermined correspondence between the activity and the industry. The impact assessment system described in any one of the items.

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