JP7144850B2 - Surface avalanche prediction device and surface avalanche prediction program - Google Patents

Description

Application of Article 30, Paragraph 2 of the Patent Act Sankei Shimbun Co., Ltd., Sankei Shimbun, March 22, 2018 Tochigi Prefecture Edition, page 24, March 22, 2018, https://www. sankei. com/region/news/180322/rgn1803220041-n1. html Nikkei Inc., Nihon Keizai Shimbun, March 27, 2018 evening edition, page 12, March 27, 2018, https://www. nikkei. com/article/DGXMZO28618720X20C18A3CR0000/ National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Snow and Ice Disaster Prevention Research Center, Investigative research on the avalanche disaster that occurred in Nasu Town, Tochigi Prefecture on March 27, 2017, pp.96-121, pp.157-168 page, July 20, 2018

The present invention relates to a surface avalanche prediction device and a surface avalanche prediction program.

Avalanche occurrence is predicted to occur on slopes, and there are many places where it is difficult to install sensors to detect the occurrence of avalanches. is currently underway.

For example, Patent Literature 1 discloses a slush avalanche prediction system that predicts the occurrence of a slush avalanche based on the amount of accumulated snow for each mesh obtained by a radar rainfall observation system.

JP-A-2006-38509

A slush avalanche is an avalanche in which all layers of snow containing a large amount of water flow down a slope. It predicts the occurrence of a slush avalanche by obtaining the amount of snow accumulated every year.

However, in addition to the slush avalanche, there is also a surface avalanche in which only the surface snow flows down the slope. A slush avalanche and a surface avalanche are different in their mechanism of occurrence, because the surface snow piled up on the layer slides down. Therefore, the method for predicting the occurrence of a slush avalanche as disclosed in Patent Document 1 cannot predict the occurrence of a surface avalanche.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION It is an object of the present invention to provide a surface avalanche prediction device and a surface avalanche prediction program capable of accurately predicting the occurrence of a surface avalanche.

The present invention is intended to solve the above problems, and a surface avalanche prediction device according to one embodiment of the present invention comprises:
a data acquisition unit for acquiring weather forecast data including a plurality of weather elements for each time segmented by a predetermined time interval and each region segmented by a predetermined size;
a snowfall occurrence determination unit that determines whether or not snowfall occurs at each time and in each area based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit;
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the cause of the snowfall at each time and in each region determined by the snow occurrence determination unit is low pressure. A first snowfall cause determination unit that determines whether there is
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the amount of snowfall at each time and in each region at which the first snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is the low pressure a first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit that calculates a first accumulated snowfall amount in each of the times and in each of the areas by accumulating over a plurality of the times for each of the areas;
a first avalanche risk level for determining a first surface avalanche risk level at each time and each region based on the first cumulative snowfall amount calculated by the first cumulative snowfall amount calculating section; and a determination unit.

In addition, the surface avalanche prediction device is
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the cause of the snowfall in each of the times and regions determined by the snow occurrence determination unit is the low pressure. a second snowfall cause determination unit that determines whether or not it is a winter-type pressure arrangement after the passage of
Snowfall at each time and in each region when the cause of the snowfall is determined to be the winter-type pressure arrangement by the second snowfall cause determination unit, based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit. a second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit that calculates a second accumulated snowfall amount for each of the time periods and each area by accumulating the amount of snowfall over a plurality of times for each of the areas;
Based on the first accumulated snowfall amount calculated by the first accumulated snowfall amount calculating unit and the second accumulated snowfall amount calculated by the second accumulated snowfall amount calculating unit, each time and a second avalanche risk determination unit that determines a second surface avalanche risk in each region.

In addition, the surface avalanche prediction device is
A display information generating unit for generating display information for displaying the first surface avalanche risk at each time and each area determined by the first avalanche risk determining unit on a display screen.

Further, in the surface avalanche prediction device, the first avalanche risk determination unit associates the first integrated snowfall amount with a plurality of risk levels classified for each predetermined numerical value range, thereby determine the degree of surface avalanche risk of
The display information generating unit generates the display information for displaying the first surface avalanche risk on the display screen based on a plurality of display modes respectively corresponding to the plurality of risk levels.

Further, in the surface avalanche prediction device, the first avalanche risk determination unit determines that the risk of the first surface avalanche is high when the first cumulative snowfall amount is equal to or greater than a predetermined numerical value. .

In addition, the surface avalanche prediction device is
The time and the region when the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall does not occur, or the time when the first snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is not the low pressure. and in the region, if the snowfall determined by the first snowfall cause determination unit to be caused by the low pressure does not occur within a predetermined period prior to the time, It further comprises an accumulated snowfall amount resetting unit that resets the first accumulated snowfall amount in time and the area.

In addition, the surface avalanche prediction device is
The first surface avalanche risk determined by the first avalanche risk determining unit at each time and each region, and each time and the above determined by the second avalanche risk determining unit A display information generation unit is further provided for generating display information for displaying the second surface avalanche risk in each region on a display screen.

In addition, in the surface avalanche prediction device,
The first avalanche risk determination unit determines the risk of the first surface avalanche by associating the first cumulative snowfall amount with a plurality of risk levels classified for each predetermined numerical range. death,
The second avalanche risk determination unit determines the second surface layer by associating a value obtained by adding the first accumulated snowfall amount and the second accumulated snowfall amount to the plurality of risk levels. determine the avalanche risk,
The display information generating unit displays the first surface avalanche risk and the second surface avalanche risk on the display screen based on a plurality of display modes respectively corresponding to the plurality of risk levels. to generate the display information to be displayed on the

In addition, in the surface avalanche prediction device,
The second avalanche risk determination unit determines that the second surface avalanche risk is determined when a value obtained by adding the first accumulated snowfall amount and the second accumulated snowfall amount is equal to or greater than a predetermined numerical value. judged to be high.

In addition, the surface avalanche prediction device is
The time and the region when the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall does not occur, or the time when the first snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is not the low pressure. and in the region, if the snowfall determined by the first snowfall cause determination unit to be caused by the low pressure does not occur within a predetermined period prior to the time, It further comprises an accumulated snowfall amount resetting unit that resets the first accumulated snowfall amount and the second accumulated snowfall amount in the time and the area.

In addition, in the surface avalanche prediction device,
The second snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is determined by the first snowfall cause determination unit to be not the low pressure, in the time and in the region, within a predetermined period before the time. , if the snowfall determined by the first snowfall cause determining unit to be caused by a low pressure is occurring, the cause of the snowfall at the time and in the region is the winter-type pressure arrangement; Determine that there is.

In addition, in the surface avalanche prediction device,
The data acquisition unit acquires the weather forecast data including at least wind direction as the plurality of weather elements,
The first snowfall cause determination unit determines whether or not the wind direction for each of the times and regions at which the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall is occurring includes an easterly wind component as a first condition. When it is determined that the first condition is satisfied, it is determined that the cause of the snowfall is the low pressure.

In addition, in the surface avalanche prediction device,
The data acquisition unit acquires the weather forecast data including at least the wind direction and the relative humidity of a predetermined pressure surface as the plurality of weather elements,
The first snowfall cause determination unit determines whether or not the wind direction for each of the times and regions at which the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall is occurring includes an easterly wind component as a first condition. and whether or not the relative humidity of the predetermined air pressure surface for each of the times and the regions at which the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall is occurring is equal to or higher than a predetermined humidity. If it is determined that either one of the first condition and the second condition is satisfied, it is determined that the cause of the snowfall is the low atmospheric pressure.

In addition, in the surface avalanche prediction device,
The data acquisition unit acquires the weather forecast data including, as the plurality of weather elements, at least a plurality of wind directions respectively corresponding to a plurality of pressure surfaces,
The first snowfall cause determination unit determines, as the first condition, the ground surface from among the plurality of wind directions for each of the times and regions when the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall is occurring. determines whether or not the wind direction corresponding to the pressure surface located immediately above includes an easterly component.

In addition, in the surface avalanche prediction device,
The data acquisition unit acquires the weather forecast data including at least temperature and precipitation as the plurality of weather elements,
The snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that when the air temperature for at least each time and each region is within a predetermined range, and the amount of precipitation for each time and each region is equal to or greater than a predetermined amount of precipitation, It is determined that the snowfall is occurring.

Further, the surface avalanche prediction program causes the computer to function as the surface avalanche prediction device.

According to the surface avalanche prediction device and the surface avalanche prediction program according to one embodiment of the present invention, each time and each region when the first cumulative snowfall amount calculation unit determines that the cause of snowfall is "low pressure" By accumulating the amount of snowfall in each area over a plurality of times, the first accumulated snowfall amount in each time period and in each area is calculated, and the first avalanche risk determination unit performs the first accumulation Based on the amount of snowfall, the risk of the first surface avalanche at each time and each region is determined, respectively, so that the snowfall caused by the low pressure forms a weak layer, and the snowfall caused by the same low pressure Therefore, it is possible to accurately predict the risk of a surface avalanche that occurs due to the formation of overlying snow on a weak layer.

In addition, the second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit calculates the amount of snowfall at each time and in each area when the cause of the snowfall is determined to be "a winter-type atmospheric pressure pattern after the passage of a low pressure system" as a plurality of snowfall amounts for each area. By accumulating over time, a second accumulated snowfall amount at each time and in each area is calculated, and the second avalanche risk determination unit calculates the first accumulated snowfall amount at each time and in each area, Since the risk of the second surface avalanche at each time and in each region is determined based on the second accumulated snowfall amount, the snowfall caused by the low pressure forms a weak layer, and the low pressure Accurately predict the risk of a surface avalanche that occurs when overlying snow is formed on a weak layer due to the snowfall that causes it and the snowfall that causes the winter-type pressure pattern after the low pressure has passed. be able to.

1 is an overall configuration diagram showing an example of a surface avalanche prediction system 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 1 shows a weather map in which a surface avalanche will occur when the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention predicts the degree of risk of a surface avalanche; FIG. 13A is a weather chart showing an avalanche occurrence pattern 13A, and (b) is a weather chart showing a second surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13B in which a surface avalanche occurs at point B. FIG. FIG. 2 is a distribution diagram showing how the relative humidity and wind vector for each pressure surface change over time when the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention predicts the risk of a surface avalanche at a specific point. be. 1 is a block diagram showing a surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing a surface avalanche prediction unit 221 according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the operation (surface avalanche prediction processing) of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention. 4 is a flowchart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of snowfall occurrence determination processing in step S200). 4 is a flow chart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of snowfall cause determination processing in step S400). 4 is a flow chart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of the integrated snowfall amount calculation process in step S500). 4 is a flow chart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of the first avalanche risk determination process in step S600). 4 is a flow chart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of second avalanche risk determination processing in step S700). 4 is a flow chart showing the operation (display information generation processing) of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 and the operation of the user terminal 11 according to the embodiment of the present invention; 3 is a diagram showing a weather information display screen 3 in the surface avalanche prediction system 1 according to the embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a time-series graph display screen 4 in the surface avalanche prediction system 1 according to the embodiment of the present invention; FIG.

An embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

FIG. 1 is an overall configuration diagram showing an example of a surface avalanche prediction system 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The surface avalanche prediction system 1 acquires the weather forecast data 100 provided by the weather forecast system 10 that provides the weather forecast data 100, and forecasts surface avalanche forecast information 200 based on the weather forecast data 100. a surface avalanche prediction device 2, a user terminal 11 that is used by each user and outputs surface avalanche prediction information 200 predicted by the surface avalanche prediction device 2 to each user, and each device is connected so as to be able to communicate with each other. a network 12; The network 12 may be wired or wireless, and may be an Internet line or a dedicated line.

The weather forecast system 10 is a system operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, foreign weather organizations, domestic and foreign weather companies, and the like. The weather forecast system 10 generates weather forecast data 100 by predicting changes in weather conditions based on current or past observation data collected at a plurality of observation points, and provides the weather forecast data 100 in a predetermined manner. It is provided to the outside at times (for example, eight times a day, every three hours).

The weather forecast data 100 is called GPV (Grid Point Value) data, and is generated at predetermined time intervals (e.g., 30 minutes, 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours) using various numerical forecast models. ) and each region R(r) separated by a predetermined size (for example, 2 km mesh, 5 km mesh, 20 km mesh). . As numerical forecast models, for example, a global numerical forecast model (GSM), a meso scale model (MSM), a local numerical forecast model (LFM), etc. are used.

The plurality of meteorological elements 110 are various elements for quantitatively expressing weather conditions, for example, temperature [° C.], relative humidity [%], precipitation [mm/h], wind vector (east-west component and Two elements of the north-south component) [m/s], solar radiation [W/m ² ], atmospheric pressure [hPa], cloud amount [%], and the like.

In this embodiment, the weather forecast data 100 is assumed to be GPV data predicted using a meso-scale numerical forecast model (MSM), and each time T ( t), and a plurality of meteorological elements 110 for each region R(r) separated by a 5-km mesh, including temperature Temp on the ground (ground surface), relative humidity Rh, amount of precipitation Pr, wind vector W _g (east-west component wu and north-south component wv) and atmospheric pressure Sp, and each atmospheric pressure plane (for example, 950 hPa, 925 hPa, 900 hPa, 850 hPa, 800 hPa, 700 hPa, 600 hPa, 500 hPa) separated by a predetermined pressure interval from 950 to 500 [hPa]. data including a plurality of wind vectors W ₉₅₀ , W ₉₂₅ , W ₉₀₀ , W ₈₅₀ , W ₈₀₀ , W ₇₀₀ , W ₆₀₀ , W ₅₀₀ and the relative humidity Rh ₅₀₀ at a predetermined pressure surface (e.g., 500 hPa) described as a thing. Therefore, the variable t is an integer value between 1 and 39 (=Tmax), and the variable r is an integer value between 1 and the maximum value (=Rmax) when a serial number is assigned to each area.

The user terminal 11 includes an information processing device such as a general-purpose desktop computer, and a mobile terminal device such as a user-portable notebook computer, tablet, smart phone, mobile phone, or wearable terminal.

The user terminal 11 receives a user's input operation on the display screen, transmits a display information generation request to the surface avalanche prediction device 2, and receives display information from the surface avalanche prediction device 2 as a response to the display information generation request. Then, based on the display information, weather forecast data 100 and surface avalanche prediction information 200 are displayed on the display screen.

The surface avalanche forecasting device 2 performs a surface avalanche forecasting process (details will be described later) based on the weather forecast data 100, thereby calculating the degree of risk of a surface avalanche occurring at each time T(t) and each area R(r). It is a device that predicts

FIG. 2 shows a weather map in which a surface avalanche will occur when the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention predicts the risk of a surface avalanche. FIG. 2B is a weather chart showing a first surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13A, and (b) showing a second surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13B in which a surface avalanche occurs at point B. FIG.

FIGS. 2A and 2B show a low pressure system 130 accompanied by a warm front 131 and a cold front 132 moving east-northeast. In a first region 140 (north side to east side to southeast side of low pressure 130) in front of the direction of movement of low pressure 130, stratiform clouds generated by warm front 131 generate snow crystals with little cloud particle adhesion (for example, a plate without cloud particles). crystals, prismatic crystals without cloud droplets, etc.) tend to fall easily, and in the second region 141 where the winter-type pressure pattern after the low pressure 130 passes, snow crystals with many cloud droplets tend to fall easily. . Also, in the third region 142 near the center of the low pressure 130, there is a tendency that snow crystals with a large amount of cloud droplets tend to fall. Among the first region 140, the second region 141, and the third region 142, snowfall ranges 140a, 141a, and 142a where snowfall occurs are shown in gray in FIGS. area.

In the first surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13A shown in FIG. Snow from stratiform clouds in front of the direction of travel begins to fall. A weak layer is formed at the point A after 10 hours by the accumulation of snow crystals with less cloud particle adhesion from the stratiform cloud. After that, snow caused by the same low pressure 130 (it is often smooth and crumbles easily like granulated sugar) continues to accumulate on the weak layer and becomes an overlying snow cover, making point A unstable. It becomes a heavy snow condition. Then, due to the breaking of the weak layer, a surface avalanche occurs at point A 20 hours later.

Therefore, from the time when a weak layer may be formed by snowfall caused by the low pressure 130 (snowfall in the first region 140), the amount of snowfall is accumulated when the snowfall is continuously occurring. As a result, it is possible to predict the possibility that a surface avalanche will occur due to the first surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13A.

In the second surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13B shown in FIG. Snow from stratiform clouds in front of the direction of travel begins to fall. A weak layer is formed at the point B after 12 hours by the accumulation of snow crystals with less cloud particle adhesion from the stratiform cloud. After that, the snow caused by the same low pressure 130 continuously falls on the weak layer and becomes overburden.

Furthermore, as low pressure 130 advances to the east-northeast, when point B enters the second region 141, 24 hours later, at point B, a convective cloud due to the winter-type pressure pattern after low pressure 130 passes It begins to snow. Snow crystals with a lot of cloud droplets from the convective clouds and snowdrifts caused by stronger nodal winds due to the winter-type pressure pattern further accumulate on the weak layer, forming an overlying snow cover, which is relatively strong snow. By becoming a state (slab), the B point will be in an unstable snow cover state. Then, due to the breaking of the weak layer, a surface avalanche occurs at point B 36 hours later.

In addition, the weak layer duration (“predetermined period”) during which the weak layer formed by snowfall caused by low pressure 130 maintains a state that can cause a surface avalanche is determined as a general guideline. It is said to last for 2-3 days during the middle of the season or just after a snowfall. Therefore, when the weak layer persistence period has passed after the snowfall caused by the low pressure 130 stopped, the possibility of occurrence of surface avalanche caused by the weak layer is considered to be greatly reduced.

Therefore, the snowfall caused by the low pressure 130 (snowfall in the first region 140) shifted to the snowfall caused by the winter pressure pattern after the low pressure 130 passed (snowfall in the second region 141). In this case, it is possible to predict the occurrence of a surface avalanche according to the second surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13B by further accumulating the amount of snowfall within the weak layer duration from the transition point.

Note that the points A and B do not enter the third region 142 as the low pressure 130 progresses, but if the points A and B enter the third region 142, the Snowfall in region 142 of 3 can be snow overburden by falling on top of the weak layer.

FIG. 3 shows how the relative humidity and wind vector for each pressure surface change over time when the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention predicts the risk of a surface avalanche at a specific point. It is a distribution map shown. Snowfall caused by low pressure 130 started around 00:00 on February 9 and continued until around 00:00 on February 10. During this time, the direction of the wind with respect to the pressure surface on the ground surface side (lower layer side) of 850 hPa is easterly. In addition, since the range of high humidity with a relative humidity of 80% or more extends to the sky side (upper layer side) above 500 hPa, the snowfall caused by low pressure 130 can also be seen from tall clouds. It is assumed that the

After that, snowfall due to the winter-type pressure pattern after the passage of low pressure 130 will occur from around 3:00 on February 10, but the wind direction with respect to the pressure surface on the surface side of 850 hPa will change from the east to the northwest. is changing. In addition, since the range of high humidity with a relative humidity of 80% or more has narrowed to about 700 hPa, snowfall caused by the winter-type pressure distribution after low pressure 130 passes It is thought that this is caused by clouds that are lower than the clouds that cause the snowfall.

Returning to FIG. 1, the surface avalanche prediction device 2 predicts a surface avalanche according to the first surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13A. A first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) is calculated. Then, the surface avalanche prediction device 2 calculates a first surface avalanche risk level at each time T(t) and each area R(r) based on the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r). avalanche risk DA(t, r).

In addition, the surface avalanche prediction device 2 predicts a surface avalanche according to the second surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13B, based on the weather forecast data 100, at each time T(t) and each area R(r). A cumulative snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) is calculated. Then, the surface avalanche prediction device 2 calculates the total accumulated snowfall amount ΣC(t,r) based on the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t,r) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t,r). Then, a second avalanche risk DB (t, r ).

The surface avalanche prediction information 200, which is information predicted by the surface avalanche prediction device 2, includes a first cumulative snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) at each time T(t) and each region R(r), a second Includes cumulative snowfall amount ΣB(t, r), total cumulative snowfall amount ΣC(t, r), first avalanche risk DA(t, r), and second avalanche risk DB(t, r) be

As shown in FIG. 2(a), the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) is a value indicating the snow cover condition that causes surface avalanche occurrence according to the first surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13A. It is calculated by integrating the amount of snowfall Sf(t, r) [mm] at atmospheric pressure 130 over a plurality of times T(t) for each region R(r).

As shown in FIG. 2(b), the second cumulative snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) is the snowfall amount Sf(t, r) [mm] due to the winter pressure pattern after the low pressure 130 has passed, It is calculated by integrating over a plurality of times T(t) for each region R(r). The total accumulated snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) is a value indicating the snow accumulation condition that causes the surface layer avalanche to occur according to the second surface layer avalanche occurrence pattern 13B. , and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r).

The first avalanche risk DA (t, r) and the second avalanche risk DB (t, r) are represented by a stepwise risk determination index, and in descending order of surface avalanche risk, for example , ``danger'', ``severe caution'', ``warning'', ``caution'', and ``safe''. Note that the first avalanche risk DA(t, r) is not limited to five levels, and the risk determination index representing each level is not limited to the five levels of risk determination indices.

In this embodiment, the amount of snowfall Sf(t, r) is obtained by regarding the amount of precipitation Pr included in the weather forecast data 100 as the amount of snowfall. , the second cumulative snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) and the total cumulative snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) are calculated in terms of precipitation [mm].

FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention. The surface avalanche prediction device 2 is composed of, for example, an information processing device such as a general-purpose desktop computer or server.

The surface avalanche prediction device 2 includes an input unit 20 configured by a keyboard, a touch panel, etc., a storage unit 21 configured by an HDD, a memory, etc., a control unit 22 configured by a processor such as a CPU, and a network 12. It has a communication unit 23 as a communication interface, and an output unit 24 including a display, a speaker, and the like. Note that the input unit 20 and the output unit 24 may be omitted, and in that case, another information processing device may be configured to function as the input unit 20 and the output unit 24 of the surface avalanche prediction device 2. .

The storage unit 21 includes a weather forecast database 210 storing weather forecast data 100, an avalanche risk database 211 storing surface avalanche forecast information 200 predicted by a surface avalanche forecasting unit 221 (details will be described later), and geographic data. Information 212 and surface avalanche prediction program 213 are stored.

The geographic information 212 is called GIS (Geographic Information System) data, and is divided into a predetermined size (for example, 250m mesh, 500m mesh, 1km mesh) as a plurality of terrain elements for each mesh. , for example, data storing altitude (average, maximum, minimum), maximum inclination angle, minimum inclination angle, and the like.

In this embodiment, the geographic information 212 includes national land digital information elevation/slope third-order mesh (1 km mesh) data 212a and national land digital information elevation/slope fifth-order mesh (250 m mesh) data 212b.

By executing the surface avalanche prediction program 213 stored in the storage unit 21, the control unit 22 functions as a data acquisition unit 220, a surface avalanche prediction unit 221, and a display information generation unit 222, and performs surface avalanche prediction processing ( 6 to 11) and display information generation processing (details will be described later in FIGS. 12 to 14).

The data acquisition unit 220 acquires the weather forecast data 100 from the weather forecast system 10 via the communication unit 23 . The data acquisition unit 220 also registers the acquired weather forecast data 100 in the weather forecast database 210 . The data acquisition unit 220 may be connected to an external storage device such as a USB memory in which the weather forecast data 100 is stored, and may acquire the weather forecast data 100 from the external storage device. The weather forecast data 100 input via the input unit 20 by the administrator of the device 2 may be acquired.

The surface avalanche prediction unit 221 predicts the surface avalanche prediction information 200 based on the weather forecast data 100 acquired by the data acquisition unit 220 and the geographic information 212 stored in the storage unit 21 . The surface avalanche prediction unit 221 also registers the predicted surface avalanche prediction information 200 in the avalanche risk database 211 .

FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing surface avalanche prediction unit 221 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The surface avalanche prediction unit 221 includes an inclination determination unit 221a, a snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b, a first snowfall cause determination unit 221c, a first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221d, a second snowfall cause determination unit 221e, a second accumulation It includes a snowfall amount calculation unit 221f, an accumulated snowfall amount reset unit 221g, a first avalanche risk determination unit 221h, and a second avalanche risk determination unit 221i.

The inclination determination unit 221a refers to the national land digital information altitude/inclination fifth-order mesh data 212b stored as the geographic information 212 in the storage unit 21, and determines that the maximum inclination angle in each region R(r) is a predetermined inclination angle ( For example, 30 degrees) or more. Surface avalanches are less likely to occur in terrain with an inclination angle smaller than, for example, 30 degrees. This is a threshold for determining whether or not to In this embodiment, the "predetermined angle of inclination" is described as 30 degrees, but it may be changed as appropriate according to weather conditions, regions, etc., and may be changed by the administrator of the surface avalanche prediction device 2. There may be.

The snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b includes an air temperature determination unit 221b1 and a precipitation amount determination unit 221b2, and based on the weather forecast data 100 acquired by the data acquisition unit 220, each time T(t) and each region R(r ), it is determined whether or not it is snowing.

The air temperature determination unit 221b1 determines whether the air temperature Temp on the ground for each time T(t) and each region R(r) included in the weather forecast data 100 is within a predetermined range (for example, 2° C. or less). , it is determined whether or not there is a possibility of snowfall instead of rainfall. In the present embodiment, the “temperature within a predetermined range” is described as a temperature of 2° C. or less, but any value that can determine whether or not there is a possibility of snowfall will be used. The temperature may be within a range, for example, it may be changed as appropriate according to weather conditions, regions, etc., or may be changed by the administrator of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 . In addition, the "temperature within a predetermined range" may define not only the upper limit but also the lower limit. Furthermore, the temperature determining unit 221b1 determines whether it is raining or snowing based on the temperature Temp. You may make it determine whether it is snowing.

At this time, the altitude above the ground in the weather forecast data 100 is different from the actual altitude in the area R(r). With reference to the tertiary mesh data 212a, the maximum altitude of the region R (r) is obtained, and the temperature By using a decrement rate (e.g., 6.5 [°C/km], 6.0 [°C/km], etc.), the temperature Temp on the ground is altitude corrected to the temperature Temp* at the highest altitude of the region R (r) Then, it is determined whether or not the air temperature Temp* after altitude correction is within a predetermined range (2° C. or less).

The precipitation determination unit 221b2 determines whether the precipitation Pr on the ground for each time T(t) and each region R(r) included in the weather forecast data 100 is equal to or greater than a predetermined precipitation (for example, 0.1 mm/h). By determining whether or not rain is occurring, it is determined whether or not rain is occurring (it is unclear whether it is raining or snowing).

The reason for determining whether or not rain is occurring based on the "predetermined amount of precipitation" is that even if the amount of precipitation Pr is a small value such as less than 0.1 mm/h, it is determined that precipitation is occurring. Then, the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t,r) are not reset by the accumulated snowfall amount resetting unit 221g (details will be described later) for a long period of time. In order to avoid such a situation, a value of "predetermined amount of precipitation" is used as the threshold. In this embodiment, the "predetermined amount of precipitation" is described as 0.1 mm/h, but any amount of precipitation may be used as long as it is a value that allows determination of whether or not precipitation is occurring. It may be changed as appropriate according to weather conditions, regions, etc., or may be changed by an administrator of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 .

The snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that the air temperature Temp* after the altitude correction is within a predetermined range (2° C. or less) by the air temperature determination unit 221b1, and the precipitation amount determination unit 221b2 determines whether it is raining. When it is determined that the amount Pr is equal to or greater than the predetermined precipitation amount (0.1 mm/h), it is determined that snow is falling, that is, "snow is falling".

Based on the weather forecast data 100 acquired by the data acquisition unit 220, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines each time T(t) and each It is determined whether or not the cause of the snowfall in the region R(r) is a "low pressure".

As shown in FIG. 2(a), the cause of the surface avalanche caused by the first surface avalanche generation pattern 13A is that a weak layer is formed by snowfall from the front of the low pressure 130 in the traveling direction, and the same low pressure This is because overlying snow cover is formed on the weak layer due to snowfall. In addition, since the wind direction 133 around the low pressure 130 rotates counterclockwise (in the case of the northern hemisphere) toward the center of the low pressure 130 and blows in, the snowfall caused by the low pressure 130 does not occur. As shown in FIG. 3, during the period of time when the wind is occurring, the easterly wind is blowing near the surface of the ground, that is, on the surface of the surface (lower layer) than 850 hPa.

Therefore, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines whether or not the wind direction for the time T(t) and region R(r) in which the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that snowfall is occurring includes an easterly wind component. If it is determined as the first condition and the wind direction includes an easterly component, it is determined that the cause of the snowfall at the time T(t) and the area R(r) is "low pressure".

In addition, since the wind vector _Wg on the ground is easily affected by the terrain, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines whether the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines whether snowfall is occurring or not in order to avoid being affected by the terrain. Of the plurality of wind vectors _W950 , _W925 , _W900 , _W850 , _W800 , _W700 , _W600 , and _W500 for time T(t) and region R(r) determined to be A wind vector W _select corresponding to the pressure surface located directly above is selected, and whether or not the wind direction of the wind vector W _select includes an _easterly component is determined as a first condition. is included, it is determined that the cause of the snowfall at the time T(t) and the region R(r) is the "low pressure".

For example, when the air pressure Sp on the ground (ground surface) is 975 [hPa], the first snowfall cause determining unit 221c determines that the wind vector W ₉₅₀ is selected as the wind vector W _select , and if the wind direction of the wind vector W select includes an _easterly component, it is determined that the cause of the snowfall is a "cyclone".

Note that the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c performs spatial interpolation processing and temporal interpolation processing on the wind vector W _select , and the wind direction of the wind vector W _select * obtained as a result of these processing is the east wind component. You may make it determine whether it contains.

In the spatial interpolation process, for example, each region R(r) in the weather forecast data 100 is divided into 5 km _meshes with a predetermined size. This is an interpolation process performed to treat the wind vector W _select as 5 km mesh data when it is 10 km mesh data. In the spatial interpolation process, for example, the wind vector W _select , which is 10 km mesh data, is spatially linearly interpolated so that it becomes 5 km mesh data. This is the process of obtaining the wind vector of the mesh located at .

In the time interpolation process, for example, each time T(t) in the weather forecast data 100 is separated by one hour as a predetermined time interval, and the wind vector W _select at a predetermined pressure plane is, for example, This interpolation process is performed to treat the wind vector W _select as data for every hour when the data is for every three hours. The time interpolation process is, for example, a process of linearly interpolating in the time direction so that the wind vector W _select , which is data for every 3 hours, becomes data for every 1 hour.

In addition, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c selects a wind vector W _select corresponding to the pressure surface located directly above the ground surface so as not to be affected by the terrain, and the wind direction of the wind vector W _select is east wind. If the component is included, it is determined that the cause of the _snowfall is a "low pressure". In some cases, the wind direction does not include an easterly component.

Even in such a case, as shown in FIG. 3, during the time period when snowfall caused by low pressure 130 is occurring, the air above 500 hPa is not affected by the relatively large topography. Since there are tall clouds that extend to the height of the pressure surface, the relative humidity at a predetermined pressure surface (e.g., 500 hPa) becomes a predetermined humidity (e.g., 80%) or higher. there is

Therefore, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines that the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that snowfall is occurring, and the predetermined air pressure level (for example, 500 hPa) for the time T(t) and the region R(r). Whether the relative humidity Rh ₅₀₀ is equal to or higher than a predetermined humidity (eg, 80%) is determined as a second condition, and if the relative humidity Rh ₅₀₀ is equal to or higher than the predetermined humidity, the time T(t) And the cause of the snowfall in the area R(r) is determined to be "low pressure". In this embodiment, the "predetermined atmospheric pressure level" is 500 hPa, and the "predetermined humidity" is 80%. If so, any pressure surface or any humidity may be used. For example, it may be changed as appropriate according to weather conditions, regions, etc., or may be changed by the administrator of the surface avalanche prediction device 2. .

Therefore, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines whether the wind direction for the time T(t) and region R(r) at which snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that snowfall is occurring includes an easterly wind component ( First condition) is determined, and the relative humidity Rh ₅₀₀ of the predetermined pressure surface for the time T(t) and region R(r) at which snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that snowfall is occurring of the humidity (80%) or more (second condition), and if it is determined that either one of the first condition and the second condition is satisfied, the time T (t ) and the region R(r) is determined to be a “low pressure”.

Note that the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c is not limited to the case of a low pressure developing period as shown in FIG. 2(a). In the case of such a cyclonic period, no cyclone is drawn on the surface weather chart, but a pressure trough with a cyclonic structure exists, or a cold front catches up with a warm front and an occluded front Even in the case of a low pressure _closure period such as when the It is possible to determine whether

Information used by the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c to determine whether or not the cause of snowfall is a "low pressure" is, as shown in FIG. Any information can be used as long as it can be determined that it is snowfall from the front of the traveling direction of the atmospheric pressure 130. For example, instead of or in combination with the wind direction and the relative humidity of a predetermined atmospheric pressure surface, the atmospheric pressure gradient indicating the gradient of the atmospheric pressure may be used, or information such as the center position and course of the low pressure may be used. Furthermore, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c may determine only the first condition, and if it determines that the first condition is satisfied, determine that the cause of the snowfall is the "low pressure", Only the second condition is determined, and if it is determined that the second condition is satisfied, it may be determined that the cause of the snowfall is the "low pressure".

Based on the weather forecast data 100 acquired by the data acquisition unit 220, the first cumulative snowfall amount calculation unit 221d determines that the cause of the snowfall is a "low pressure" by the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c. By accumulating the snowfall amount Sf(t, r) at each time T(t) and each area R(r) over a plurality of times T(t) for each area R(r), each time T( t) and the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) in each region R(r).

Based on the weather forecast data 100 acquired by the data acquisition unit 220, the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e determines each time T(t) and each It is determined whether or not the cause of the snowfall in the area R(r) is the winter pressure distribution after the passage of the low pressure, that is, the "winter pressure distribution after the passage of the low pressure".

The cause of the surface avalanche caused by the second surface avalanche generation pattern 13B is that, as shown in FIG. This is because the snowfall from the winter-type pressure pattern occurs continuously within the weakening duration period, and the overlying snow cover is formed on the weak layer by the winter pressure pattern after passing.

Therefore, the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e determines that the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines that the cause of the snowfall is not the "low pressure" during time T(t) and region R(r). If the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines that the cause of the snowfall is a low pressure, within the weak layer duration period before (t), if snowfall occurs, the time T(t ) and the region R(r) is determined to be the “winter pressure distribution after passage of low pressure”.

In the present embodiment, the weak layer duration (“predetermined period”) is described as 48 hours, but any period corresponding to the life of the weak layer may be used. It may be changed as appropriate according to circumstances, etc., or may be changed by the administrator of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 .

Based on the weather forecast data 100 acquired by the data acquisition unit 220, the second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221f determines that the cause of snowfall is “winter pressure arrangement after passage of low pressure” by the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e. accumulating the amount of snowfall Sf(t, r) in each time T(t) and each region R(r) determined to be Then, the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t,r) at each time T(t) and each area R(r) is calculated.

The integrated snowfall amount resetting unit 221g resets the snowfall at the time T(t) and region R(r) when the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that no snowfall occurs, or when the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c At time T(t) and region R(r) in which the cause is determined not to be "low pressure", within the weak layer duration (within 48 hours) before time T(t), the first snowfall If the cause determination unit 221c determines that the cause of the snowfall is "low pressure" and there is no snowfall, the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t , r) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) are reset to “0”.

For example, if the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that snowfall does not occur in a specific region at 9:00 am on October 3, the integrated snowfall amount reset unit 221g starts from 9:00 am on October 3. Within the previous weak layer duration (within 48 hours), that is, between 9:00 am on October 1st and 9:00 am on October 3rd, the cause of the snowfall was determined to be a "cyclone". If no snowfall has occurred, the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t,r) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t,r) at 9:00 am on October 3 are reset to "0".

Further, the cumulative snowfall amount resetting unit 221g determines that the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b has determined that snowfall is occurring in the specific region at 9:00 am on October 3, but the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c If it is determined that the cause of the snowfall is not "low pressure", within the weak layer duration (within 48 hours) before 9:00 am on October 3, that is, from 9:00 am on October 1 If there is no snowfall determined to be caused by a "low pressure" until 9:00 am on October 3, the first cumulative snowfall amount ΣA ( t, r) and the second cumulative snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) are reset to "0".

If snowfall caused by low pressure 130 does not occur within the duration of the weak layer (within 48 hours), the accumulated snowfall amount is reset in response to the lower risk of surface avalanche. The unit 221g resets the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r).

The first avalanche risk determination unit 221h determines each time T(t) and each region R A first avalanche risk DA(t, r) at (r) is determined.

Specifically, the first avalanche risk determination unit 221h divides the first cumulative snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) into a plurality of risk levels divided by predetermined numerical ranges (for example, every 5 mm). The first avalanche danger level DA(t, r) is determined by corresponding to (five levels of "danger", "severe caution", "warning", "caution" and "safety"). In particular, the first avalanche risk determination unit 221h sets the first avalanche risk DA(t, It is judged as "dangerous" when r) is high.

The second avalanche risk determination unit 221i calculates the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) calculated by the first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221d and the second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221f. Based on the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r), the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) is determined for each time T(t) and each region R(r).

Specifically, the second avalanche risk determination unit 221i determines the total accumulated snowfall amount obtained by adding the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t,r) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t,r). ΣC(t, r) is divided into a plurality of risk levels (for example, “danger”, “severe caution”, “warning”, “caution” and “safe )) to determine the second avalanche risk DB(t, r). In particular, when the total accumulated snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) is equal to or greater than a predetermined numerical value (for example, 20 mm), the first avalanche risk determination unit 221h sets the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) is judged to be "dangerous".

In the present embodiment, the “predetermined numerical range” is described as every 5 mm, but any numerical range may be used as long as it is a numerical range in which the risk of surface avalanche occurrence increases step by step. For example, it may be changed as appropriate according to weather conditions, regions, etc., or may be changed by an administrator of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 . Further, in the present embodiment, the “predetermined value” is described as 20 mm, but any value may be used as long as it increases the risk of a surface avalanche. It may be changed as appropriate, or may be changed by an administrator of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 .

The display information generation unit 222 refers to the weather forecast database 210 and the avalanche risk database 211 in response to a display information generation request transmitted from the user terminal 11, thereby generating various types of weather information included in the weather forecast data 100. and the surface avalanche prediction information 200 predicted by the surface avalanche prediction unit 221 are generated on the display screen of the user terminal 11, and the display information is communicated to the user terminal 11. 23.

In particular, the display information generation unit 222 performs the first avalanche risk determination based on a plurality of display modes (for example, five colors of red, orange, yellow, yellowish green, and green) corresponding to a plurality of risk levels. The first avalanche risk level DA(t, r) determined by the unit 221h and the second avalanche risk level DB(t, r) determined by the second avalanche risk level determining unit 221i are transmitted to the user terminal. 11 to generate display information to be displayed on the display screen. It should be noted that the five colors in parentheses indicate an example of "plurality of display modes" corresponding to a plurality of risk levels, and the plurality of display modes are represented by, for example, colors, patterns, marks, etc. may be changed as appropriate as long as the risk level of is identifiable.

The display information generating unit 222 displays, for example, a weather information display screen 3 (details will be described later with reference to FIG. 13) that superimposes weather information on a map, and specific point Display information for displaying a time-series graph display screen 4 (details will be described later with reference to FIG. 14) that displays the temporal transition of the weather information is generated.

(Regarding surface avalanche prediction processing)
The operation (surface avalanche prediction processing) of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 predicting the surface avalanche prediction information 200 will be described below with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the operation (surface avalanche prediction processing) of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention. The surface avalanche prediction device 2 starts surface avalanche prediction processing according to the flowchart shown in FIG. Note that the surface avalanche prediction device 2 may start surface avalanche prediction processing at any timing different from the predetermined time of provision, or may start the surface avalanche prediction process when an instruction is received from the administrator of the surface avalanche prediction device 2. Processing may begin.

First, the data acquisition unit 220 acquires the weather forecast data 100 from the weather forecast system 10 via the communication unit 23 (step S1). As described above, the weather forecast data 100 is assumed to be GPV data predicted using the meso numerical forecast model (MSM), and each time T (t) up to 39 hours ahead separated by 1 hour intervals, and , as a plurality of meteorological elements 110 for each region R(r) separated by a 5-km mesh, the temperature Temp on the ground, the amount of precipitation Pr, the wind vector W (east-west component wu and north-south component wv) and pressure Sp, and each pressure surface , and a relative humidity _{Rh 500} at a predetermined pressure level ( ₅₀₀ hPa).

Next, the data acquisition unit 220 registers the weather forecast data 100 acquired in step S1 in the weather forecast database 210 (step S2).

Next, the surface avalanche forecasting unit 221 executes a repeat loop M with "t" as a variable for each time T(t) of the weather forecast data 100 (steps S10, S11). "t=1, Tmax, 1" in step S10 indicates the initial value, final value, and increment value of the variable t, respectively, and the surface avalanche prediction unit 221 is sandwiched between steps S10 and S11. By repeating the processing of steps S20 to S21 while incrementing the initial value 1 of the variable t by 1 until the variable t reaches the final value Tmax, the processing is performed for each time T(t).

Next, the surface avalanche prediction unit 221 executes a repeat loop N with "r" as a variable for each region R(r) of the weather forecast data 100 (steps S20, S21). "r=1, Rmax, 1" in step S20 indicates the initial value, final value, and increment value of the variable r, respectively. By repeating the processing of steps S100 to S900 while incrementing the initial value 1 of the variable r by 1 until the variable r reaches the final value Rmax, the processing is performed for each region R(r).

Next, the inclination determination unit 221a refers to the national land digital information elevation/inclination fifth-order mesh data 212b stored as the geographic information 212 in the storage unit 21, and determines that the maximum inclination angle in the region R(r) is a predetermined inclination. It is determined whether or not the angle is greater than or equal to (30 degrees) (step S100).

When the tilt determination unit 221a determines that the maximum tilt angle in the region R(r) is not equal to or greater than the predetermined tilt angle (30 degrees) (No in step S100), the first avalanche risk determination unit 221h , the first avalanche risk DA(t, r) at time T(t) and region R(r) is defined as "safe ” (step S800).

Therefore, the second avalanche risk determination unit 221i assumes that there is no possibility that a surface avalanche will occur due to the second surface avalanche occurrence pattern 13B, and the second 2 is determined to be "safe" (step S810).

On the other hand, when the tilt determination unit 221a determines that the maximum tilt angle in the region R(r) is equal to or greater than the predetermined tilt angle (30 degrees) (Yes in step S100), the snowfall generation determination unit 221b The snowfall occurrence determination process shown in FIG. 7 is performed (step S200).

FIG. 7 is a flow chart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of the snowfall occurrence determination process in step S200).

First, the temperature determination unit 221b1 refers to the national land digital information elevation/slope tertiary mesh data 212a stored as the geographic information 212 in the storage unit 21, thereby determining the time T(t) and The air temperature Temp on the ground for the region R(r) is corrected for altitude (step S210).

Next, the air temperature determination unit 221b1 determines whether or not the air temperature Temp* after altitude correction performed in step S210 is within a predetermined range (2° C. or less) (step S220).

Then, when the air temperature determination unit 221b1 determines that the air temperature Temp* after altitude correction is within a predetermined range (2° C. or less) (Yes in step S220), the precipitation amount determination unit 221b2 It is determined whether or not the precipitation amount Pr on the ground for the time T(t) and the area R(r) included in the forecast data 100 is equal to or greater than a predetermined precipitation amount (0.1 mm/h) (step S230).

Then, when the rainfall determination unit 221b2 determines that the rainfall amount Pr on the ground is equal to or greater than the predetermined rainfall amount (0.1 mm/h) (Yes in step S230), the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b It is determined that snow is falling at time T(t) and region R(r), that is, "snow is falling" (step S240).

On the other hand, if the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines "No" in either step S220 or S230, snowfall does not occur during time T(t) and region R(r), that is, " No snow" (step S250).

As described above, the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines whether or not snowfall occurs at time T(t) and region R(r), and ends the snowfall occurrence determination process shown in FIG.

Next, returning to FIG. 6, when the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that snowfall occurs at time T(t) and region R(r) as a result of the snowfall occurrence determination processing in step S200, ( Yes in S300), the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c and the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e perform the snowfall cause determination process shown in FIG. 8 (step S400).

FIG. 8 is a flow chart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of the snowfall cause determination processing in step S400).

First, the first snowfall cause determining unit 221c determines a plurality of wind vectors W ₉₅₀ , W ₉₂₅ , W ₉₀₀ , W ₈₅₀ , W 800 , W 800 , W ₈₀₀ , Among W ₇₀₀ , W ₆₀₀ , and W ₅₀₀ , the wind vector W _select of the pressure plane positioned directly above the ground surface is selected (step S410).

Next, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines as a first condition whether or not the wind direction of the wind vector W _select selected in step S230 includes an easterly component (step S420).

Then, when the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines that the wind direction of the wind vector W _select includes an easterly component (Yes in step S420), snowfall at time T(t) and region R(r) is determined to be "low atmospheric pressure" (step S430).

On the other hand, the first snowfall cause determining unit 221c determines that the wind direction of the wind vector W _select does not include an easterly component (No in step S420). It is determined as a second condition whether or not the relative humidity Rh ₅₀₀ at a predetermined atmospheric pressure surface (500 hPa) with respect to (r) is equal to or higher than a predetermined humidity (80%) (step S421).

Then, when the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines that the relative humidity Rh ₅₀₀ is equal to or higher than the predetermined humidity (80%) (Yes in step S421), the time T (t) and the area R ( The cause of the snowfall in r) is determined to be "low pressure" (step S430). Note that the order of steps S420 and S421 may be reversed.

On the other hand, when the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines that the relative humidity Rh ₅₀₀ is not equal to or higher than the predetermined humidity (80%) (No in step S421), the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e determines time T ( t) and region R(r), within the weak layer duration (within 48 hours) before the time T(t), the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines that the cause of snowfall is “low pressure”. It is determined whether or not the snowfall determined to be present is occurring (step S440).

Then, when the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e determines that snowfall whose cause is "low pressure" is occurring within the weak layer duration period (within 48 hours) (Yes in step S440). ), time T(t) and region R(r) is determined to be "winter pressure arrangement after passage of low pressure" (step S450).

As described above, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c and the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e determine the cause of snowfall at time T(t) and region R(r), and determine the snowfall cause shown in FIG. End the determination process.

Next, returning to FIG. 6, the first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221d, the second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221f, and the accumulated snowfall amount reset unit 221g perform the accumulated snowfall amount calculation processing shown in FIG. 9 (step S500). ).

FIG. 9 is a flow chart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of the integrated snowfall amount calculation process in step S500).

First, when the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that snowfall occurs at time T(t) and region R(r) as a result of the snowfall occurrence determination process in step S200 (Yes in S510), When the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines that the cause of the snowfall is "low pressure" as a result of the snowfall cause determination processing in step S400 (Yes in S520), the first cumulative snowfall amount calculation is performed. The unit 221d calculates the first cumulative snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) based on the weather forecast data 100 (step S530).

Specifically, the first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221d calculates the amount of precipitation Pr(t, r) for the time T(t) and the area R(r) included in the weather forecast data 100 as the amount of snowfall Sf(t, r), and the snowfall amount Sf (t, r) is added to the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA (t−1, r) at time T (t−1) and region R (r) by the following formula (1) is added to calculate the first integrated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) at time T(t) and region R(r).

However, in the above formula (1), the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t-1, r) when t=1 corresponds to the accumulated snowfall amount at the current time, so using the actual observed value Alternatively, as a result of surface layer avalanche prediction processing performed in the past, the accumulated snowfall amount registered in the avalanche risk database 211 may be used, or if there is no such data, it may be set to "0". good.

Next, the integrated snowfall amount resetting unit 221g sets the non-snowfall duration Tcount(r), which counts the time during which snowfall caused by "low pressure" continues for each region R(r), to " 0” (step S531).

Also, in step S520, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines that the cause of snowfall at time T(t) and region R(r) is not "low pressure" (in S520 No), if the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e determines that the cause of the snowfall is "winter atmospheric pressure arrangement after passage of low pressure" (Yes in S540), second cumulative snowfall amount calculation The unit 221f calculates the second cumulative snowfall amount ΣB(t,r) based on the weather forecast data 100 (step S550).

Specifically, the second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221f calculates the precipitation amount Pr(t, r) for the time T(t) and the region R(r) included in the weather forecast data 100 as the snowfall amount Sf(t, r), and the snowfall amount Sf (t, r) is added to the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB (t−1, r) at time T (t−1) and region R (r) by the following formula (2) is added to calculate the second cumulative snowfall amount ΣB(t,r) at time T(t) and region R(r).

However, in the above equation (2), the second cumulative snowfall amount ΣB(t-1, r) when t=1 corresponds to the cumulative snowfall amount at the current time. Alternatively, as a result of surface layer avalanche prediction processing performed in the past, the accumulated snowfall amount registered in the avalanche risk database 211 may be used, or if there is no such data, it may be set to "0". good.

Further, when the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines in step S520 that snowfall does not occur in time T(t) and region R(r) (No in step S510), or in step S540, When the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e determines that the cause of the snowfall at time T(t) and region R(r) is not the "winter pressure arrangement after passage of low pressure" (No in step S540). , the first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221d calculates the first accumulated snowfall amount by substituting the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t−1,r) for the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t,r) (step S560), and the second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221f substitutes the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t−1,r) for the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t,r). The second cumulative snowfall amount is taken over (step S561).

Note that even if the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines in step S520 that snowfall does not occur at time T(t) and region R(r) (No in step S510), the time T (t) and the amount of precipitation Pr for the region R(r) is a predetermined amount of precipitation (0.1 mm/h) or more, that is, when rain is occurring instead of snow, and the time When the first snowfall cause determining unit 221c determines that the cause of the snowfall is "low pressure" within the weak layer duration period (within 48 hours) before T(t) occurs , by adding the precipitation amount Pr at the time T(t) to the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA (t-1, r) or the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB (t-1, r), The first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) or the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) may be calculated. This takes into account the fact that if rain falls temporarily within the weak layer duration after the formation of the weak layer, the rain will be retained in the snow layer above the weak layer and the load will increase. This is because the amount of precipitation due to rainfall is counted as on-load snow cover.

Next, as processing subsequent to steps S550 and S561, the cumulative snowfall amount resetting unit 221g sets the non-snowfall duration Tcount(r) to a predetermined unit time (here, a predetermined time interval of the weather forecast data 100). 1 hour") is added (step S570).

Next, the integrated snowfall amount resetting unit 221g determines whether or not the non-snowfall duration Tcount(r) is equal to or longer than the weak layer duration (48 hours) (step S580). ) is equal to or longer than the weak layer duration (48 hours) (Yes in step S580), the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r ) is reset to “0” (step S590), and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) at time T(t) and region R(r) is reset to “0” (step S591).

As described above, the first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221d and the second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221f calculate the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r ) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r), and the accumulated snowfall amount calculation process shown in FIG. 9 is terminated.

Next, returning to FIG. 6, the first avalanche risk determination unit 221h performs the first avalanche risk determination process shown in FIG. 10 (step S600).

FIG. 10 is a flow chart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of the first avalanche risk determination process in step S600).

First, the first avalanche danger level determination unit 221h determines the first Case classification is performed according to the value of the cumulative snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) (step S610).

When the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) is less than 5 mm (“0≦ΣA<5” in step S610), the first avalanche risk determination unit 221h sets the first avalanche risk DA(t, r) is determined to be "safe" (green) (step S620), and when the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) is 5 mm or more and less than 10 mm (step S610 "5≦ΣA<10"), the first avalanche danger level DA(t, r) is determined to be "caution" (yellow-green) (step S630), and the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) If the distance is 10 mm or more and less than 15 mm (“10≦ΣA<15” in step S610), the first avalanche danger level DA(t, r) is determined to be “warning” (yellow) (step S640 ), and when the first cumulative snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) is 15 mm or more and less than 20 mm (“15≦ΣA<20” in step S610), the first avalanche risk DA(t, r) is determined to be "severe warning" (orange) (step S650), and when the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) is 20 mm or more ("20≦ΣA" in step S610), The avalanche danger level DA(t, r) of 1 is determined to be "dangerous" (red) (step S660).

As described above, the first avalanche risk determination unit 221h determines the first avalanche risk DA(t, r) based on the value of the first cumulative snowfall amount ΣA(t, r), The first avalanche risk determination process shown in FIG. 10 ends.

Next, returning to FIG. 6, the second avalanche risk determination unit 221i performs the second avalanche risk determination process shown in FIG. 11 (step S700).

FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing the operation of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the embodiment of the present invention (details of the second avalanche risk determination process in step S700).

First, the second avalanche risk determination unit 221i determines the first time T(t) and region R(r) calculated by the first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221d in the accumulated snowfall amount calculation process in step S500. The accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) at the time T(t) and the area R(r) calculated by the second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit 221f are A total accumulated snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) is calculated by adding (step S701).

Next, the second avalanche risk determination unit 221i performs case classification according to the value of the total cumulative snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) (step S710).

When the total cumulative snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) is less than 5 mm (“0≦ΣC<5” in step S710), the second avalanche risk determination unit 221i determines the second avalanche risk DB ( t, r) is determined to be “safe” (green) (step S720), and if the total accumulated snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) is 5 mm or more and less than 10 mm (“5≦ΣC <10”), the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) is determined to be “caution” (yellow green) (step S730), and the total accumulated snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) is 10 mm or more If it is less than (“10≦ΣC<15” in step S710), the second avalanche risk DB (t, r) is determined to be “warning” (yellow) (step S740), and the total cumulative snowfall amount When ΣC(t, r) is 15 mm or more and less than 20 mm (“15≦ΣC<20” in step S710), the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) is set to “severe warning” ( orange) (step S750), and if the total cumulative snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) is 20 mm or more (“20≦ΣC” in step S710), the second avalanche risk DB(t, r ) is determined to be “dangerous” (red) (step S760).

As described above, the second avalanche risk determination unit 221i determines the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) based on the value of the total accumulated snowfall amount ΣC(t, r). ends the second avalanche risk determination process shown in .

Next, returning to FIG. 6, the surface avalanche prediction unit 221 calculates the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r), the first avalanche risk level DA(t, r) determined in the first avalanche risk level determination process in step S600, and the total integration calculated in the second avalanche risk level determination process in step S700. The snowfall amount ΣC(t, r) and the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) determined in the second avalanche risk determination process in step S700 are used as surface avalanche prediction information 200 to determine the avalanche risk. It is registered in the database 211 (step S900).

Then, the surface avalanche prediction unit 221 repeats steps S100 to S900 Rmax times in a repeat loop N, and repeats steps S20 to S21 Tmax times in a repeat loop M, so that each time T(t) and each region R(r ), the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA (t, r), the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB (t, r), the total accumulated snowfall amount ΣC (t, r), the first avalanche risk DA (t, r ), and the second avalanche risk DB (t, r), the predicted surface avalanche prediction information 200 is registered in the avalanche risk database 211, and shown in FIGS. End the surface avalanche prediction process.

(Regarding display information generation processing and display screen)
The operation (display information generation processing) when the surface avalanche prediction device 2 generates display information and the display screen based on the display information generated by the surface avalanche prediction device 2 will be described below with reference to FIGS. explain.

FIG. 12 is a flow chart showing the operation (display information generation processing) of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 and the operation of the user terminal 11 according to the embodiment of the present invention. The surface avalanche prediction device 2 can start the display information generation process when data to be displayed is registered in the weather forecast database 210 and the avalanche risk database 211 by the surface avalanche prediction process. The display information generation processing may be started at a timing different from the processing, or the display information generation processing may be started in parallel with the surface avalanche prediction processing.

First, for example, when the user terminal 11 receives a user's access operation specifying a URL for accessing the surface avalanche prediction apparatus 2 (step S1000), the user terminal 11 accesses the specified URL and displays the display date and time and display elements. is transmitted to the surface avalanche prediction device 2 (step S1001).

Then, the display information generation unit 222 of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 refers to the weather forecast database 210 and the avalanche risk database 211 in response to the display information generation request transmitted from the user terminal 11, Display information for displaying the weather information display screen 3 is generated, and the generated display information is transmitted to the user terminal 11 (step S1100).

Next, the user terminal 11 receives the display information from the surface avalanche prediction device 2 as a response to the display information generation request, and displays the weather information display screen 3 shown in FIG. 13 based on the display information (step S1010). ).

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing the weather information display screen 3 in the surface avalanche prediction system 1 according to the embodiment of the present invention. The weather information display screen 3 includes a date and time selection area 30 arranged on the upper left side of the screen, an element selection area 31 arranged on the lower left side of the screen, and a weather element 110 and a weather element 110 arranged on the right side of the screen. and a weather information display area 32 for superimposing and displaying surface avalanche forecast information 200 and the like on the map. The arrangement and size of the date and time selection area 30, the element selection area 31, and the weather information display area 32 may be changed as appropriate.

The date and time selection area 30 includes a date selection section 300 for selecting a display date to be displayed in a calendar format and a display time to be displayed when the weather information is displayed in the weather information display area 32. , a slider bar, and a time selection section 301 for selection using a stop button, a play button, and a pause button.

The element selection area 31 includes an element selection section 310 that selects display elements to be displayed using, for example, a combo box when weather information is displayed in the weather information display area 32, and a Along with the display elements, a wind direction designation section 311 is provided for designating, for example, with a check box whether or not to display the wind direction of the wind vector _Wg on the ground.

The element selection unit 310 selects display elements from the combo box, which are the weather elements 110 included in the weather forecast data 100, namely the temperature Temp on the ground, the relative humidity Rh, the amount of precipitation Pr, and the wind direction of the wind vector _Wg , The first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r), the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t,r), and the total accumulated snowfall amount ΣC(t) included in the surface avalanche prediction information 200 predicted by the surface avalanche prediction unit 221 , r), the first avalanche risk DA(t, r), and the second avalanche risk DB(t, r).

The weather information display area 32 includes a map display section 320 that displays a map on the entire weather information display area 32, and a map designation section 321 that designates the display range and magnification ratio of the map to be displayed on the map display section 320. Prepare.

The map display unit 320 displays a map based on the display range and magnification specified by the map specifying unit 321, and superimposes the display elements selected by the element selection unit 310 on the map. is configured to In the weather information display screen 3 shown in FIG. 13, one hour after the current time is selected as a display element included in the display information generation request, and the element selection unit 310 selects "second time" as a display element included in the display information generation request. This is a display screen displayed when "Avalanche risk level 1" is selected, and the map display unit 320 displays the first avalanche risk of each region R(r) at the time T(t) corresponding to the display date and time. The degree DA(t, r) is displayed by superimposing on the map contour diagrams each corresponding to a stepwise display mode. The contour map may be a color scale contour map or a gray scale contour map.

Further, the map display unit 320 is configured to receive a user's point specifying operation of double-clicking an arbitrary specific point on the map with a mouse, and display the weather information for that specific point in a time-series graph. .

The map displayed on the map display unit 320 includes, for example, auxiliary information such as names of prefectures, names of municipalities, names of places such as mountains, rivers, and lakes, boundaries of administrative divisions, and route maps of roads and railways. Alternatively, the auxiliary information to be displayed on the map may be selectable by the user. Further, the map specifying unit 321 may specify the display range of the map by receiving an operation of dragging the map with a mouse, or may enlarge the map by receiving an operation force of rotating the mouse wheel on the map. You can specify a rate.

Here, on the weather information display screen 3 shown in FIG. 13, when the user terminal 11 receives the user's selection operation for the date and time selection area 30 and the element selection area 31, the display date and time and the display element selected by the selection operation are displayed. Display date and time selected by the selection operation by transmitting a display information generation request including Then, the screen is switched to the weather information display screen 3 corresponding to the display element.

Further, on the weather information display screen 3 shown in FIG. 13, when the user terminal 11 accepts a user's point specifying operation of double-clicking with the mouse on an arbitrary specified point on the map displayed in the weather information display area 32 (step S1020), and transmits a display information generation request including the specified point and the display element accepted by the point specifying operation to the surface avalanche prediction device 2 (step S1021). Then, the display information generation unit 222 of the surface avalanche prediction device 2 refers to the weather forecast database 210 and the avalanche risk database 211 in response to the display information generation request, thereby displaying the time-series graph display screen 4 on the user terminal 11. When display information to be displayed is generated and the generated display information is transmitted to the user terminal 11 (step S1110), the user terminal 11 displays the time series graph display screen 4 shown in FIG. 14 based on the display information. (Step S1030).

FIG. 14 is a diagram showing a time series graph display screen 4 in the surface avalanche prediction system 1 according to the embodiment of the present invention. The time-series graph display screen 4 is displayed when an arbitrary specific point on the map is double-clicked with the mouse in a state where "first accumulated snowfall amount" is selected in the element selection section 310 of the weather information display screen 3. It is a display screen displayed. In addition, the time-series graph display screen 4 is displayed by the integrated snowfall amount reset unit 221g so that at time "3:00" the snowfall caused by the "low pressure" is within the weak layer duration (from time "3:00"). within the previous 48 hours), the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) is reset to "0" at time "3:00". is.

The time-series graph display screen 4 is arranged on the right side of the screen, and shows the first accumulated snowfall amount in the region R(r) including the specific point in the graph whose horizontal axis is time and whose vertical axis is the accumulated snowfall amount. It has a time-series graph area 40 that displays the temporal transition of ΣA(t, r) by, for example, a polygonal line 400, and an element selection area 41 arranged on the left side of the screen. Note that the time-series graph area 40 shown in FIG. 14 displays the range (period) of, for example, 0:00 to 16:00 on February 21, 2018 as the horizontal axis, but all periods are displayed. Alternatively, the period to be displayed may be changeable with a scroll bar, or at least one of the start time and end time of the period to be displayed may be changeable.

The element selection area 41 includes an element selection section 410 that selects display elements to be displayed by the polygonal line 400 using, for example, a combo box when the polygonal line 400 is displayed in the time-series graph area 40 . The element selection section 410 is configured so that display elements similar to those of the element selection section 310 shown in FIG. 13 can be selected as display element options in a combo box.

In the weather information display screen 3 shown in FIG. 13, when the first avalanche risk level or the second avalanche risk level is selected as a display element in the element selection unit 310, the weather information display area 32 displays the first The avalanche risk level DA (t, r) or the second avalanche risk level DB (t, r) has been described as being displayed. When the third avalanche risk level is selected in the element selection unit 310, the weather information display area 32 displays the first avalanche risk level DA (t, r) and the second avalanche risk level DB (t, r). A higher risk level may be selected and displayed, or the average value of the first avalanche risk DA (t, r) and the second avalanche risk DB (t, r) You may make it display the danger level equivalent to .

When the first accumulated snowfall amount is selected as a display element in the time-series graph display screen 4 shown in FIG. Although the temporal transition of t, r) is displayed by the polygonal line 400, it is possible to select a plurality of display elements at the same time in the element selection section 410, and a plurality of display elements can be simultaneously selected in the element selection section 410. In this case, the time-series graph area 40 may display a plurality of polygonal lines respectively corresponding to the plurality of display elements selected at the same time.

As described above, in the surface avalanche prediction device 2 according to the above-described embodiment, the first cumulative snowfall amount calculation unit 221d determines that the cause of snowfall is the "low pressure" at each time T(t) and each By accumulating the snowfall amount Sf in each region R(t) over a plurality of times T(t) for each region R(t), the first Each accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) is calculated, and the first avalanche risk determination unit 221h calculates each time T(t) and each region based on the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r). Since the first avalanche risk DA(t,r) in R(r) is determined respectively, a weak layer is formed by snowfall caused by a low pressure, and a weak layer is formed by snowfall caused by the same low pressure. It is possible to accurately predict the degree of risk of a surface avalanche (a surface avalanche caused by the first surface avalanche generation pattern 130A) caused by the formation of an overlying snowfall on the .

In addition, the amount of snowfall Sf is integrated over a plurality of times T(t) for each region R(t) to obtain a second integrated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) at each time T(t) and each region R(r) , and the second avalanche risk determination unit 221i calculates the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) at each time T(t) and each region R(r), and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r), the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) at each time T(t) and each region R(r) is determined. A weak layer is formed by , and snowfall caused by the low pressure and snowfall caused by the winter-type pressure pattern after the low pressure passes form an overlying snow cover on the weak layer. It is possible to accurately predict the risk of surface avalanches to occur (surface avalanches according to the second surface avalanche occurrence pattern 130B).

In addition, the display information generation unit 222 displays the first avalanche risk DA(t, r) and the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) at each time T(t) and each region R(r). Since the display information to be displayed on the screen is generated, the first avalanche risk DA(t, r) and the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) can be visually grasped.

Further, the display information generation unit 222 generates the first avalanche risk DA(t, r) and the second avalanche risk DB(t, r) based on a plurality of display modes respectively corresponding to a plurality of risk levels. ) is generated on the display screen, it is possible to easily grasp the time and region where the risk of occurrence of surface avalanches by the first surface avalanche occurrence pattern 130A and the second surface avalanche occurrence pattern 130B is high. be able to.

In addition, the integrated snowfall amount reset unit 221g determines that the snowfall is not occurring at the time T(t) and the area R(r), or at the time T at which the snowfall is determined not to be caused by the "low pressure". In (t) and region R(r), if snowfall determined to be caused by a "low pressure" does not occur within the weak layer duration before the time, the time T ( t) and the first accumulated snowfall amount ΣA(t, r) and the second accumulated snowfall amount ΣB(t, r) in the region R(r). It is possible to accurately predict the occurrence of a surface avalanche according to the situation in which the risk of a surface avalanche due to weak layers decreases.

In addition, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines whether or not the wind direction for each time T(t) and each area R(r) at which it is determined that snowfall has occurred includes an easterly wind component as a first condition. If it is determined that the first condition is satisfied, it is determined that the cause of the snowfall is the "low pressure". can be determined.

In addition, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines whether or not the wind direction for each time T(t) and each area R(r) at which it is determined that snowfall has occurred includes an easterly wind component as a first condition. and determines whether the relative humidity of the predetermined pressure surface for each time T(t) and each area R(r) when it is determined that snowfall is occurring is equal to or higher than the predetermined humidity. If it is determined that either one of the first condition and the second condition is satisfied, it is determined that the cause of the snowfall is a "low pressure", so it is not affected by the terrain. Therefore, it is possible to accurately determine the cause of snowfall.

In addition, the first snowfall cause determination unit 221c determines the pressure surface located directly above the ground surface among a plurality of wind directions for each time T(t) and each region R(r) when it is determined that snowfall is occurring. The first condition is whether or not the wind direction corresponding to is included in the easterly wind component. The cause of snowfall can be accurately determined without being affected.

In addition, at the time T(t) and the area R(r) where the second snowfall cause determination unit 221e determines that the cause of the snowfall is not the "low pressure", the weak layer before the time T(t) If snowfall whose cause is determined to be "low pressure" occurs within the duration period, the cause of snowfall at the time T(t) and in the region R(r) is "after passing the low pressure Therefore, it is possible to accurately determine the cause of the snowfall that causes the surface avalanche caused by the second surface avalanche occurrence pattern 130B.

In addition, the snowfall occurrence determination unit 221b determines that the air temperature Temp for each time T(t) and each region R(r) is within a predetermined range, and that for each time T(t) and each region R(r) When the amount of precipitation Pr is equal to or greater than the predetermined amount of precipitation, it is determined that snow is falling, so it is possible to accurately determine whether snow is falling.

(Other embodiments)
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and can be modified as appropriate without departing from the technical idea of the present invention.

For example, in the above embodiment, the weather forecast data 100 includes the wind vector W (the east-west component wu and the north-south component wv) as the weather element 110 indicating the wind speed and direction. Instead of the vector W, the weather elements 110 may include wind speed and wind direction.

Further, in the above embodiment, the surface avalanche prediction device 2 is described as being composed of a single information processing device, but may be composed of a plurality of information processing devices. and a calculation server provided with a surface avalanche prediction unit 221, a data server provided with a weather forecast database 210 and an avalanche risk database 211, and a display server provided with a display information generation unit 222. .

In the above embodiment, the surface avalanche prediction device 2 generates display information based on the surface avalanche prediction information 200 and transmits the display information to the user terminal 11. Display information may be provided to other systems, servers, cloud service platforms, and the like. For example, the surface avalanche prediction device 2 provides the surface avalanche prediction information 200 or display information to a GIS system (geographic information system), and the GIS system supplies the surface avalanche prediction information 200 or display information to GIS data that the GIS system has. (eg, houses, land use, roads) may be superimposed and displayed.

Further, in the above embodiment, the surface avalanche prediction program 213 is described as being stored in the storage unit 21, but it is a file in an installable or executable format that can be read by a computer such as a CD-ROM or DVD. Alternatively, it may be stored on a computer connected to the network 12 and downloaded via the network.

1... surface avalanche prediction system, 2... surface avalanche prediction device,
3... weather information display screen, 4... time-series graph display screen,
10... weather forecast system, 11... user terminal, 12... network,
13A... First surface avalanche occurrence pattern, 13B... Second surface avalanche occurrence pattern,
20... Input unit, 21... Storage unit, 22... Control unit, 23... Communication unit, 24... Output unit,
30 date and time selection area 31 element selection area 32 weather information display area
40... time-series graph area, 41... element selection area,
100 Weather forecast data 110 Weather elements
130...Low pressure, 131...Warm front, 132...Cold front, 133...Wind direction,
140... 1st field, 141... 2nd field, 142... 3rd field,
140a to 142a ... snowfall range,
200... surface avalanche prediction information, 210... weather forecast database,
211... avalanche risk database, 212... geographic information,
212a... Gradient 3rd order mesh data 212b... Gradient 5th order mesh data
213 surface avalanche prediction program,
220... Data acquisition unit, 221... Surface avalanche prediction unit, 221a... Inclination determination unit,
221b...Snowfall determination unit 221b1...Temperature determination unit 221b2...Precipitation amount determination unit
221c... first snowfall cause determination unit, 221d... first cumulative snowfall amount calculation unit,
221e ... second snowfall cause determination section, 221f ... second cumulative snowfall amount calculation section,
221g... Accumulated snowfall amount reset unit, 221h... First avalanche risk determination unit,
221i... second avalanche risk determination unit, 222... display information generation unit,
300... Date selection unit, 301... Time selection unit, 310... Element selection unit,
311... wind direction designating part, 320... map display part, 321... map designating part,
400... polygonal line, 410... element selection part

Claims (15)

a data acquisition unit for acquiring weather forecast data including a plurality of weather elements for each time segmented by a predetermined time interval and each region segmented by a predetermined size;
a snowfall occurrence determination unit that determines whether or not snowfall occurs at each time and in each area based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit;
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the cause of the snowfall at each time and in each region determined by the snow occurrence determination unit is low pressure. A first snowfall cause determination unit that determines whether there is
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the amount of snowfall at each time and in each region at which the first snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is the low pressure a first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit that calculates a first accumulated snowfall amount in each of the times and in each of the areas by accumulating over a plurality of the times for each of the areas;
a first avalanche risk level for determining a first surface avalanche risk level at each time and each region based on the first cumulative snowfall amount calculated by the first cumulative snowfall amount calculating section; a determination unit;
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the cause of the snowfall in each of the times and regions determined by the snow occurrence determination unit is the low pressure. a second snowfall cause determination unit that determines whether or not it is a winter-type pressure arrangement after the passage of
Snowfall at each time and in each region when the cause of the snowfall is determined to be the winter-type pressure arrangement by the second snowfall cause determination unit, based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit. a second accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit that calculates a second accumulated snowfall amount for each of the time periods and each area by accumulating the amount of snowfall over a plurality of times for each of the areas;
Based on the first accumulated snowfall amount calculated by the first accumulated snowfall amount calculating unit and the second accumulated snowfall amount calculated by the second accumulated snowfall amount calculating unit, each time and a second avalanche risk determination unit that determines the risk of a second surface avalanche in each region,
A surface avalanche prediction device characterized by: The first surface avalanche risk determined by the first avalanche risk determining unit at each time and each region, and each time and the above determined by the second avalanche risk determining unit further comprising a display information generating unit that generates display information for displaying on a display screen the degree of risk of the second surface avalanche in each area;
The surface avalanche prediction device according to claim 1 , characterized in that: The first avalanche risk determination unit determines the risk of the first surface avalanche by associating the first cumulative snowfall amount with a plurality of risk levels classified for each predetermined numerical range. death,
The second avalanche risk determination unit determines the second surface layer by associating a value obtained by adding the first accumulated snowfall amount and the second accumulated snowfall amount to the plurality of risk levels. determine the avalanche risk,
The display information generating unit displays the first surface avalanche risk and the second surface avalanche risk on the display screen based on a plurality of display modes respectively corresponding to the plurality of risk levels. generating the display information to be displayed in
The surface avalanche prediction device according to claim 2 , characterized in that: The first avalanche risk determination unit determines that the risk of the first surface avalanche is high when the first cumulative snowfall amount is equal to or greater than a predetermined numerical value,
The second avalanche risk determination unit determines that the second surface avalanche risk is determined when a value obtained by adding the first accumulated snowfall amount and the second accumulated snowfall amount is equal to or greater than a predetermined numerical value. judged to be high
The surface avalanche prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 3 , characterized in that: The time and the region when the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall does not occur, or the time when the first snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is not the low pressure. and in the region, if the snowfall determined by the first snowfall cause determination unit to be caused by the low pressure does not occur within a predetermined period prior to the time, Further comprising an accumulated snowfall amount resetting unit that resets the first accumulated snowfall amount and the second accumulated snowfall amount in the time and the area,
The surface avalanche prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 4 , characterized in that: The second snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is determined by the first snowfall cause determination unit to be not the low pressure, in the time and in the region, within a predetermined period before the time. , if the snowfall determined by the first snowfall cause determining unit to be caused by a low pressure is occurring, the cause of the snowfall at the time and in the region is the winter-type pressure arrangement; determine that there is
The surface avalanche prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 4 , characterized in that: a data acquisition unit for acquiring weather forecast data including a plurality of weather elements for each time segmented by a predetermined time interval and each region segmented by a predetermined size;
a snowfall occurrence determination unit that determines whether or not snowfall occurs at each time and in each area based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit;
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the cause of the snowfall at each time and in each region determined by the snow occurrence determination unit is low pressure. A first snowfall cause determination unit that determines whether there is
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the amount of snowfall at each time and in each region at which the first snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is the low pressure a first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit that calculates a first accumulated snowfall amount in each of the times and in each of the areas by accumulating over a plurality of the times for each of the areas;
a first avalanche risk level for determining a first surface avalanche risk level at each time and each region based on the first cumulative snowfall amount calculated by the first cumulative snowfall amount calculating section; a determination unit;
The time and the region when the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall does not occur, or the time when the first snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is not the low pressure. and in the region, if the snowfall determined by the first snowfall cause determination unit to be caused by the low pressure does not occur within a predetermined period prior to the time, an accumulated snowfall amount reset unit that resets the first accumulated snowfall amount in the time and the area,
A surface avalanche prediction device characterized by: a data acquisition unit for acquiring weather forecast data including a plurality of weather elements for each time segmented by a predetermined time interval and each region segmented by a predetermined size;
a snowfall occurrence determination unit that determines whether or not snowfall occurs at each time and in each area based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit;
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the cause of the snowfall at each time and in each region determined by the snow occurrence determination unit is low pressure. A first snowfall cause determination unit that determines whether there is
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the amount of snowfall at each time and in each region at which the first snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is the low pressure a first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit that calculates a first accumulated snowfall amount in each of the times and in each of the areas by accumulating over a plurality of the times for each of the areas;
a first avalanche risk level for determining a first surface avalanche risk level at each time and each region based on the first cumulative snowfall amount calculated by the first cumulative snowfall amount calculating section; a determination unit ;
The data acquisition unit acquires the weather forecast data including at least wind direction as the plurality of weather elements,
The first snowfall cause determination unit determines whether or not the wind direction for each of the times and regions at which the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall is occurring includes an easterly wind component as a first condition. If it is determined that the first condition is satisfied, it is determined that the cause of the snowfall is the low pressure,
A surface avalanche prediction device characterized by: a data acquisition unit for acquiring weather forecast data including a plurality of weather elements for each time segmented by a predetermined time interval and each region segmented by a predetermined size;
a snowfall occurrence determination unit that determines whether or not snowfall occurs at each time and in each area based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit;
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the cause of the snowfall at each time and in each region determined by the snow occurrence determination unit is low pressure. A first snowfall cause determination unit that determines whether there is
Based on the weather forecast data acquired by the data acquisition unit, the amount of snowfall at each time and in each region at which the first snowfall cause determination unit determines that the cause of the snowfall is the low pressure a first accumulated snowfall amount calculation unit that calculates a first accumulated snowfall amount in each of the times and in each of the areas by accumulating over a plurality of the times for each of the areas;
a first avalanche risk level for determining a first surface avalanche risk level at each time and each region based on the first cumulative snowfall amount calculated by the first cumulative snowfall amount calculating section; a determination unit ;
The data acquisition unit acquires the weather forecast data including at least the wind direction and the relative humidity of a predetermined pressure surface as the plurality of weather elements,
The first snowfall cause determination unit determines whether or not the wind direction for each of the times and regions at which the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall is occurring includes an easterly wind component as a first condition. and whether or not the relative humidity of the predetermined air pressure surface for each of the times and the regions at which the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall is occurring is equal to or higher than a predetermined humidity. 2 condition, and if it is determined that either one of the first condition and the second condition is satisfied, it is determined that the cause of the snowfall is the low pressure;
A surface avalanche prediction device characterized by: The data acquisition unit acquires the weather forecast data including, as the plurality of weather elements, at least a plurality of wind directions respectively corresponding to a plurality of pressure surfaces,
The first snowfall cause determination unit determines, as the first condition, the ground surface from among the plurality of wind directions for each of the times and regions when the snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that the snowfall is occurring. determining whether the wind direction corresponding to the pressure surface located directly above includes an easterly component;
The surface avalanche prediction device according to claim 8 or 9 , characterized in that: further comprising a display information generating unit for generating display information for displaying the first surface avalanche risk at each time and each region determined by the first avalanche risk determination unit on a display screen;
The surface avalanche prediction device according to any one of claims 7 to 10 , characterized in that: The first avalanche risk determination unit determines the risk of the first surface avalanche by associating the first cumulative snowfall amount with a plurality of risk levels classified for each predetermined numerical range. death,
The display information generating unit generates the display information for displaying the first surface avalanche risk on the display screen based on a plurality of display modes respectively corresponding to the plurality of risk levels.
The surface avalanche prediction device according to claim 11 , characterized in that: The first avalanche risk determination unit determines that the risk of the first surface avalanche is high when the first accumulated snowfall amount is equal to or greater than a predetermined numerical value.
The surface avalanche prediction device according to any one of claims 7 to 12 , characterized in that: The data acquisition unit acquires the weather forecast data including at least temperature and precipitation as the plurality of weather elements,
The snowfall occurrence determination unit determines that when the air temperature for at least each time and each region is within a predetermined range, and the amount of precipitation for each time and each region is equal to or greater than a predetermined amount of precipitation, determining that the snowfall is occurring;
The surface avalanche prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 13 , characterized in that: A surface avalanche prediction program for causing a computer to function as the surface avalanche prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 14 .

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