JP7354794B2 - Solar power generation amount prediction device, control method and program for solar power generation amount prediction device - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a solar power generation amount prediction device, a control method and a program for the solar power generation amount prediction device.

In order to stably supply high-quality electricity, electric power companies control the output of generators in each region on a daily basis to balance the supply and demand of electricity.

For example, electric power companies use EDC ( Economical Load Dispatching Control (Economical Load Dispatching Control) and LFC (Load Frequency Control) are performed to finely control the output of the generator (for example, see Patent Document 1).

Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2013-062953

However, in recent years, solar power generation equipment whose power generation amount fluctuates greatly depending on the amount of solar radiation has rapidly become popular, and this has come to have an impact on the control of the supply and demand balance. Therefore, various technologies for predicting the amount of power generated by solar power generation equipment have been developed.

For example, a technology has been developed that predicts the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility by estimating the solar radiation intensity at the prediction target date and time from cloud movement vectors obtained using images taken of the sky. However, with this technology, it is necessary to install observation equipment at each location where solar power generation equipment is installed, and although it is possible to make predictions for a very short period of time, from a few seconds to a few minutes, it is difficult to make predictions for several tens of minutes in advance.

There is also a method of predicting the amount of power generated several tens of minutes in the future by using a persistence model that assumes that the current amount of power generation will not change for a while, but the predicted value obtained by this method is simply past the past. Since this is a delayed version of the amount of power generated, it is not possible to take into account patterns of change such as increasing or decreasing trends in the amount of power generated, and there is a limit to prediction accuracy.

For this reason, there is a need for a technology for more accurately predicting the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility over a short period of time, for example, several minutes to several hours.

The present invention has been made in view of the above-mentioned problems, and it is possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility over a short period of time, for example, several minutes to several hours. The purpose of the present invention is to provide a prediction device, a control method and a program for a solar power generation amount prediction device.

A solar power generation amount prediction device that solves the above problem is a solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates a predicted value of the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility after a predetermined time, and includes an instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility. a power generation amount storage unit that stores a value smoothed using a predetermined calculation formula as an actual value of the amount of power generation in association with date and time information; and a most recent vector whose elements are the actual values within the most recent first period. a vector search unit that searches the power generation amount storage unit for a similar vector having a norm of less than or equal to a first predetermined value; a first correction coefficient calculation unit that calculates, as a first correction coefficient, a ratio of the instantaneous value to a value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the amount of solar radiation on an external horizontal plane using the calculation formula; The ratio of the instantaneous value to the value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment obtained from the horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after hours using the calculation formula. , a second correction coefficient calculation unit that calculates a second correction coefficient; a first power generation amount prediction unit that calculates a predicted value of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation equipment after the predetermined time; and an extra-atmospheric horizontal solar radiation at the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end of the most recent vector. a third correction coefficient calculation unit that calculates, as a third correction coefficient, a ratio of the instantaneous value to a value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the quantity using the calculation formula; The ratio of the instantaneous value to the value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment obtained from the horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment using the calculation formula, a fourth correction coefficient calculation unit that obtains a correction coefficient, and uses the actual value after the predetermined period from the end point of the similar vector as a predicted value before correction of the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment; Further, a second power generation step that calculates a value obtained by multiplying the pre-correction predicted value by the third correction coefficient or the fourth correction coefficient as a corrected predicted value of the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment. and a quantity prediction unit.

Other problems disclosed by the present application and methods for solving the problems will be made clear by the description in the Detailed Description section and the drawings.

It becomes possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by solar power generation equipment in the short term.

FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of a solar power generation amount prediction device. It is a diagram showing a storage device of the solar power generation amount prediction device. It is a figure showing a power generation amount management table. It is a functional block diagram of a solar power generation amount prediction device. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing how actual values of power generation amount are embedded into a three-dimensional reconstructed state space. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing how similar vectors are selected from candidate vectors. FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining correction coefficients for correcting errors caused by smoothing. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing how a predicted value of power generation amount is obtained from a precedent vector. It is a flowchart which shows the control method of a solar power generation amount prediction apparatus.

From the description of this specification and the attached drawings, at least the following matters will become clear. DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS The present invention will be described below based on one embodiment thereof with reference to the accompanying drawings.

==Solar power generation amount prediction device==
A solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to an embodiment of the present invention is a device that calculates a predicted value of the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility 900 (not shown) after a predetermined period of time.

Although the details will be described later, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates a predicted value after a predetermined period of time from the pattern of recent changes in power generation amount, and calculates the predicted value after a predetermined time from the pattern of changes in the amount of power generation in the past. By finding past patterns that are similar to the most recent pattern of changes in power generation, and assuming that subsequent changes in power generation will occur in the same way in the present, the predicted value of power generation after a predetermined period of time is calculated. do.

By the way, the predicted value of the amount of power generation calculated in this way includes an error originally inherent in the actual value of the amount of power generation. For example, the actual value of power generation amount is often subjected to smoothing processing such as a moving average, but in that case, the predicted value includes the influence of time delay due to the moving average.

Therefore, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment corrects the predicted value so as to remove the influence of the smoothing process, thereby making it possible to predict the power generation amount with higher accuracy.

<Hardware configuration>
A hardware configuration diagram of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 is shown in FIG. The solar power generation amount prediction device 100 is, for example, a computer having a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 110, a memory 120, a storage device 130, a recording medium reading device 140, a communication device 150, an input device 160, and an output device 170, or various information processing devices. Consists of electronic devices such as devices.

The storage device 130 stores data such as a solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 executed or processed by the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 and a power generation amount management table 300 described later. FIG. 2 shows how the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 and the power generation amount management table 300 are stored in the storage device 130.

The solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 stored in the storage device 130 and the data stored in the power generation amount management table 300 are read out to the memory 120 and executed or processed by the CPU 110, so that the sunlight Various functions of the power generation amount prediction device 100 are realized. Here, the storage device 130 is a nonvolatile storage device such as a hard disk drive, an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a flash memory.

The solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 is a general term for programs for realizing the functions of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100, and includes, for example, an application program or an OS that operates on the solar power generation amount prediction device 100. (Operating System), various libraries, etc.

An example of the power generation amount management table 300 is shown in FIG. In the power generation amount management table 300 according to the present embodiment, the actual value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 is stored in chronological order, for example every 10 minutes, in association with date and time information and weather information. In the present embodiment, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 receives the instantaneous value of the power generation amount from the solar power generation equipment 900 every minute, and calculates the instantaneous value of the latest predetermined number (for example, 10) of the power generation amount. The value calculated as the actual value of the power generation amount by smoothing by averaging using the formula, and the weather information received every 10 minutes from a weather information providing computer (not shown) that is communicably connected are, respectively. It is stored in the power generation amount management table 300 in association with date and time information. In other words, new actual values of power generation amount and weather information are accumulated in the power generation amount management table 300 every 10 minutes.

Note that the smoothing method is not limited to the above, and for example, a moving average may be performed, or a weighted average or a weighted moving average may be performed by applying a larger weighting coefficient to the current value.

Further, the actual value of the amount of power generation may not be accumulated at night when solar power generation is not performed. In this case, the time period during which the actual value of power generation amount is not accumulated can be set as appropriate, for example from 6:00 PM to 6:00 AM the next day, but changes in sunrise and sunset times and solar altitude depending on the season. It may be changed depending on.

Note that the weather information includes sunny, cloudy, rain, and snow, but may also include clear skies, sleet, fog, and the like. Furthermore, the weather information may additionally include numerical information such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, clear weather index, and amount of solar radiation.

Returning to FIG. 1, the recording medium reading device 140 reads programs and data recorded on a recording medium 800 such as a CD-ROM or DVD, and stores them in the storage device 130.

The communication device 150 exchanges data and programs with other computers (not shown) via a communication network such as the Internet or a LAN (Local Area Network). For example, if the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 described above is stored in another computer, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 may download the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 from this computer. can do. Alternatively, the communication device 150 may periodically receive actual values of power generation amount and weather information from the solar power generation equipment 900 and a computer that distributes weather information.

The input device 160 is an input interface such as various buttons, switches, a keyboard, and a microphone that accept commands and data input by the user.

Further, the output device 170 is, for example, a display device such as a display, or an output user interface such as a speaker.

<Functional configuration>
FIG. 4 shows a functional block diagram of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to this embodiment. The solar power generation amount prediction device 100 includes a power generation amount storage section 101, a vector search section 102, a first power generation amount prediction section 103A, a second power generation amount prediction section 103B, a first correction coefficient calculation section 104A, and a second correction coefficient calculation section. 104B, a third correction coefficient calculation section 104C, and a fourth correction coefficient calculation section 104D. These functions are realized by executing or processing the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 and various data according to the present embodiment by the hardware shown in FIG.

The power generation amount storage unit 101 smoothes the instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation equipment 900 using a predetermined calculation formula (for example, a formula for calculating an average value), and stores the date and time information and the weather as the actual value of the power generation amount. Store in association with information. In this embodiment, the power generation amount storage section 101 is embodied as the above-mentioned power generation amount management table 300.

The vector search unit 102 searches from the power generation storage unit 101 for similar vectors whose norm with respect to the most recent vector is a first predetermined value or less and whose elements are the actual values of the power generation amount within the most recent first period (for example, 60 minutes). Explore. More specifically, the vector search unit 102 first searches for power generation using a vector whose norm with respect to the most recent vector whose element is the actual value of the amount of power generation within the most recent first period is less than or equal to a first predetermined value as a candidate vector. After searching the quantity storage unit 101, vectors that meet predetermined conditions described below are selected from among the candidate vectors as similar vectors. The most recent vector represents a pattern of change in the amount of power generation in the most recent first period, and the candidate vector represents a past pattern similar to this pattern of change.

Note that in the description of this embodiment, the nearest vector may be referred to as the latest vector, and the candidate vector and similar vectors may be referred to as neighboring vectors.

If the first period is 60 minutes, the latest vector, candidate vector, and similar vector are all seven-dimensional vectors having seven actual power generation values as elements. Further, the norm may be the Euclidean norm, but other norms such as the maximum value norm may be used to shorten the norm calculation time and speed up the search for candidate vectors.

To explain the above vector in more detail, when the actual value of the amount of power generation at time t is y(t) and the time delay is τ (10 minutes in this embodiment), vector X(t)=(y(t) ,y(t-τ),…,y(t-(n-1)τ)) indicates one point in the n-dimensional reconstruction state space (embedding space), and by changing t, n A trajectory called an attractor can be drawn in the dimensional reconstructed state space.

FIG. 5 shows an example of embedding a three-dimensional vector generated using three actual values of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 as elements into a three-dimensional reconstruction state space.

Note that even if the first period is 60 minutes, if the time delay τ is 20 minutes, the nearest vector and candidate vector become four-dimensional vectors. In this case, although actual values of the amount of power generation are recorded every 10 minutes in the power generation amount management table shown in FIG. 3, the latest vectors and candidate vectors are generated using the actual values every 20 minutes.

In addition, in the above vector y(t) is written as the latest actual value within vector X(t), the actual value at the latest point in time, the actual value at the final point in time, the actual value at the latest date and time, etc.

FIG. 6 shows the state of the nearest vector and candidate vector.

In FIG. 6, the nearest vector and candidate vector are indicated by patterned circles. X(i) drawn at the center of the dashed line circle represents the nearest vector, and the neighborhood of this nearest vector (here, the neighborhood means the range where the norm is less than or equal to the first predetermined value, and in FIG. 6, the dashed line It is shown that a plurality of candidate vectors are scattered in the range indicated by the circle). The actual values of the amount of power generation that make up each of these vectors are associated with date and time information and weather information in the power generation amount management table 300, and FIG. A different pattern is attached to the circle indicating.

Specifically, in Figure 6, each candidate vector includes weather information such as sunny or cloudy, as well as "(within 2 weeks and within ±30 minutes and excluding the current day)" or "over 2 weeks or over ±30 minutes or on the current day" However, the meaning of "within two weeks" or "more than two weeks" is based on the difference between the date of the actual value of the latest date and time that makes up the candidate vector and the date of the actual value of the latest date and time that makes up the latest vector. This indicates whether the difference is within two weeks. However, here, the difference in dates does not take into account the difference in years, and if the difference in dates is within two weeks even before the previous year, it is considered "within two weeks."

Similarly, "within 30 minutes" or "more than 30 minutes" means that the difference between the actual value of the latest date and time that makes up the candidate vector and the actual value of the latest date and time that makes up the most recent vector is within 30 minutes. It indicates whether there is or not. Here, the difference in time does not take into account the difference in year or date, and even if it is before the previous year or on a different date, if the difference in time is within 30 minutes, it is considered "within 30 minutes".

Furthermore, "excluding the current day" or "current day" indicates whether the date of the latest date/time performance value forming the candidate vector and the date of the latest date/time performance value forming the most recent vector are the same day. However, even if the date is the same, if the year is different, it will not be considered the same day.

The vector search unit 102 searches for a candidate vector whose norm with the nearest vector is less than or equal to the first predetermined value as described above, and then searches for the latest actual value in the candidate vector and the latest actual value in the closest vector. Regarding the actual values, the date difference is within the first number of days (for example, within two weeks), the time difference is within the first hour (for example, within ±30 minutes), and the weather information is the same. A candidate vector that is is selected as a similar vector.

In this way, by selecting candidate vectors whose date difference from the most recent vector is within the first number of days from among the candidate vectors as similar vectors, the candidate vectors can be selected as similar vectors. The amount of power generated can be predicted using the pattern of changes in the amount of power generated, and the accuracy of the predicted value can be improved.

Similarly, by selecting candidate vectors whose time difference from the most recent vector is within the first hour as similar vectors, past power generation amount can be calculated with less difference in power generation characteristics due to differences in solar altitude and direction depending on time. The amount of power generation can be predicted using the pattern of change, and the accuracy of the predicted value can be improved.

Furthermore, by selecting candidate vectors whose weather is the same as the most recent vector as similar vectors, it is possible to predict the amount of power generated using a pattern of changes in power generation that is less affected by differences in solar radiation due to weather. , the accuracy of predicted values can be improved.

Furthermore, the vector search unit 102 may select candidate vectors whose dates are not on the same day as similar vectors with respect to the latest performance value in the candidate vectors and the latest performance value in the most recent vector.

If a candidate vector from the same day as the most recent vector is selected as a similar vector, a candidate vector within the first hour (for example, within 30 minutes) of that day may be selected as a similar vector, but in this case, prediction using a persistence model is not possible. As in the case where the predicted value is simply a delayed version of the past power generation amount, it is not possible to take into account patterns of change such as an increasing trend or a downward trend in the power generation amount.

Therefore, by not selecting candidate vectors on the same day as the most recent vector, it is possible to avoid such an influence and improve the accuracy of predicted values.

In addition, if the vector search unit 102 cannot search for a candidate vector within the range of the first predetermined value from the most recent vector, the vector search unit 102 changes the first predetermined value to a second predetermined value larger than the first predetermined value. , the candidate vector search may be performed again. This corresponds to increasing the radius of the broken line circle in FIG.

With this aspect, it is possible to find similar vectors even in cases where there are few records showing similar patterns of changes in the past, such as when the most recent pattern of changes in power generation (most recent vector) is special. , it becomes possible to avoid a situation in which a predicted value cannot be determined.

In addition, if the vector search unit 102 is unable to search for a similar vector, it changes the first number of days (for example, within two weeks) to a second number of days (for example, within four weeks) that is larger than the first number of days, and then searches again. , a search for similar vectors may be performed.

With this aspect, it is possible to find similar vectors even in cases where there are few records showing similar patterns of changes in the past, such as when the most recent pattern of changes in power generation (most recent vector) is special. , it becomes possible to avoid a situation in which a predicted value cannot be determined.

In addition, if the vector search unit 102 is unable to search for a similar vector, the vector search unit 102 changes the first time (for example, within ±30 minutes) to a second time that is larger than the first time (for example, within ±90 minutes). , the search for similar vectors may be performed again.

This aspect also makes it possible to find similar vectors even if the most recent pattern of changes in power generation (most recent vector) is special and there are few records showing similar patterns of changes in the past. , it becomes possible to avoid a situation in which a predicted value cannot be obtained.

Returning to FIG. 4, the first correction coefficient calculation unit 104A, the second correction coefficient calculation unit 104B, the third correction coefficient calculation unit 104C, and the fourth correction coefficient calculation unit 104D calculate the power generation amount stored in the power generation amount management table 300. Calculate a correction coefficient to remove the smoothing effect inherent in the actual value of the quantity.

As described above, in this embodiment, the actual value of the power generation amount stored in the power generation amount management table 300 is the instantaneous value of the 10 power generation amounts sent every minute from the solar power generation equipment 900. This is determined by calculating the average value. Therefore, each actual value has an inherent effect of smoothing as a time lag. For example, when the amount of power generation tends to increase over time, such as in the morning on a sunny day, the actual value after smoothing will be a smaller value than the actual amount of power generated. Conversely, when the amount of power generated tends to decrease over time, such as on a sunny afternoon, the actual value after smoothing will be less than the actual amount of power generated. The value will be larger than .

Therefore, the first correction coefficient calculation unit 104A, the second correction coefficient calculation unit 104B, the third correction coefficient calculation unit 104C, and the fourth correction coefficient calculation unit 104D calculate correction coefficients for removing the influence of such smoothing. Calculated using horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere.

As is well known, the extra-atmospheric horizontal solar radiation is the horizontal component of the solar constant, which is the radiant energy from the sun received outside the Earth's atmosphere. Accurate values can be calculated as instantaneous values.

Then, the ratio between this instantaneous value and the value obtained by smoothing this instantaneous value using the same calculation formula as the calculation formula used when smoothing the actual value of the power generation amount stored in the power generation amount management table 300. can be said to represent the degree of influence of the smoothing described above.

In this way, the first correction coefficient calculation unit 104A, the second correction coefficient calculation unit 104B, the third correction coefficient calculation unit 104C, and the fourth correction coefficient calculation unit 104D according to the present embodiment are stored in the power generation amount management table 300. A correction coefficient is calculated to remove the smoothing effect (in this embodiment, the effect of taking a 10-minute average) inherent in the actual value of the power generation amount.

Specifically, the first correction coefficient calculation unit 104A calculates the instantaneous value y1 of the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) from the end of the similar vector described above. The ratio between '(t) _real and the value y1'(t) _delay , which is the value obtained by smoothing this instantaneous value using the above-mentioned calculation formula used when smoothing the actual value of power generation amount, is first corrected. Calculate as coefficient R1(t). R1 (t)= y1'(t) _real /y1'(t) _delay .

In addition, the second correction coefficient calculation unit 104B calculates the solar power generation equipment based on the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) from the end point of the above-mentioned similar vector. The instantaneous value y2'(t) _real , which is the theoretical value of the power generation amount of 900, and the value y2' that is obtained by smoothing this instantaneous value using the above-mentioned calculation formula used when smoothing the actual value of the power generation amount. (t) _delay is determined as the second correction coefficient R2(t). R2 (t)= y2'(t) _real /y2'(t) _delay .

Note that the theoretical value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 is determined by converting the horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere into the solar radiation on an inclined surface at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900, and then calculating the system output coefficient of the solar power generation equipment 900. It can be determined using various constants such as panel capacity, power conditioner capacity, etc.

For example, as shown in the graph labeled "Real Time" in FIG. 7, after specifying the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900, From the amount, the theoretical value of the power generation amount of this solar power generation equipment 900 is calculated as an instantaneous value, and on the other hand, as shown in the graph labeled "30 minutes average", the average of this instantaneous value for the past 30 minutes is calculated. The value can be calculated.

The ratio between the instantaneous value at each time and the average value over 30 minutes can be said to represent the degree of influence of smoothing.

Further, the third correction coefficient calculation unit 104C calculates the instantaneous value y3'(t) _real of the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) from the end of the most recent vector. , the ratio of this instantaneous value to the value y3'(t) _delay smoothed using the above-mentioned calculation formula used when smoothing the actual value of the power generation amount is determined as the third correction coefficient R3(t). R3 (t)= y3'(t) _real /y3'(t) _delay .

Further, the fourth correction coefficient calculation unit 104D calculates the power generation of the solar power generation equipment 900 based on the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined period (for example, 30 minutes) from the end of the most recent vector. The ratio between the instantaneous value y4'(t) _real and the value y4'(t) _delay , which is obtained by smoothing this instantaneous value using the above formula used to smooth the actual value of power generation, is It is determined as the fourth correction coefficient R4(t). R4 (t)= y4'(t) _real /y4'(t) _delay .

In addition, when a plurality of similar vectors are searched, since the date and time are different for each similar vector, the first correction coefficient calculation unit 104A and the second correction coefficient calculation unit 104B respectively calculate the first correction coefficient, A second correction coefficient is calculated. Note that the third correction coefficient and the fourth correction coefficient are correction coefficients calculated based on the most recent vector, so even if there are a plurality of similar vectors, there is only one each.

Returning to FIG. 4, the first power generation amount prediction unit 103A applies a first correction coefficient R1(t) or a second correction to the actual value of the power generation amount after a predetermined time has elapsed (for example, 30 minutes) from the end point of the similar vector. A value obtained by removing the influence of smoothing by multiplying by the coefficient R2(t) is calculated as a predicted value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time.

In addition, the second power generation amount prediction unit 103B predicts the actual amount of power generation after a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) from the end of the similar vector before correction of the amount of power generation after a predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment 900. The predicted value before correction is then multiplied by the third correction coefficient R3(t) or the fourth correction coefficient R4(t) to remove the effect of smoothing. It is calculated as a corrected predicted value of the amount of power generation after a predetermined period of time.

According to the second power generation amount prediction unit 103B, both the predicted value before correction (predicted value before removing the influence of smoothing) and the predicted value after correction (predicted value after removing the influence of smoothing). It can be calculated. Such an aspect also makes it possible to compare and analyze the effects of smoothing.

Of course, for example, the second power generation amount prediction unit 103B uses the first correction coefficient R1(t) or the second correction coefficient R2(t) to calculate the corrected predicted value of the power generation amount after a predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment 900. Alternatively, the first power generation amount prediction unit 103A may calculate the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time using the third correction coefficient R3(t) or the fourth correction coefficient R4(t). A predicted value may also be calculated.

In this embodiment, the first power generation amount prediction unit 103A and the second power generation amount prediction unit 103B identify a precedent vector after a predetermined time has elapsed from similar vectors, and use this precedent vector to The predicted value of the amount of power generation after the time (30 minutes) is calculated.

The precedent vector is a vector whose elements are performance values after a predetermined period of time for each performance value of the similar vector. Therefore, the actual value of the power generation amount after a predetermined period of time (for example, 30 minutes) has passed since the end of the similar vector is the same as the actual value at the end of the precedent vector (the actual value at the latest date and time). Then, the first power generation amount prediction unit 103A and the second power generation amount prediction unit 103B calculate a predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time using the actual value of the latest date and time in the precedent vector. .

In this manner, past performance values with similar patterns of changes in power generation amount are searched as similar vectors, and the power generation amount after a predetermined time from the current time is predicted based on the subsequent changes in the actual value of power generation amount. This makes it possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 in a short period of time.

FIG. 8 shows how the predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time is calculated based on the actual value of the power generation amount at the latest date and time of the precedent vector.

In FIG. 8, X(i) indicates the nearest vector, and x(k1), x(k2), and x(k3) each indicate similar vectors.

And X(i+s) shown at the end of the dashed arrow extending from the most recent vector represents the predicted vector after a predetermined time (the predetermined time is represented by s) from the most recent vector, and similarly, x(k1+s), x(k2+s), and x(k3+s) shown at the end of the solid arrow indicate the precedent vector of each similar vector after a predetermined time (s).

Then, the first power generation amount prediction unit 103A applies a first correction coefficient R1(t) to the latest actual power generation amount in each precedent vector x(k1+s), x(k2+s), x(k3+s). Alternatively, a predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 is calculated using a value obtained by removing the influence of smoothing by multiplying by the second correction coefficient R2(t).

When a plurality of similar vectors are searched as shown in FIG. 8, the first power generation amount prediction unit 103A, for example, (first correction coefficient or second correction coefficient) and precedent vectors x(k1+s), x(k2+s), x corresponding to each similar vector x(k1), x(k2), x(k3) It is preferable to calculate the average value of the product of the latest actual value in (k3+s) and the predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time.

With this aspect, it is possible to predict the amount of power generated after a predetermined time from now based on the subsequent trends in power generation amount of similar patterns (similar vectors) in the past, and it is possible to predict the amount of power generated after a certain time from now 900 power generation amount can be predicted more accurately.

Note that in the above-mentioned similar vectors x(k1), x(k2), and x(k3), k1, k2, and k3 indicate different dates and times, but the power generation amount prediction unit 103 calculates that when multiple similar vectors are searched, In the case of Find the product of the latest actual value and the correction coefficient, and then calculate the product of the actual value that is closer to the current value and the correction coefficient, or the latest actual value in the precedent vector corresponding to a similar vector with a smaller norm with the nearest vector and the correction coefficient. It is even better to obtain a weighted average value of these products by multiplying the product by a larger coefficient, and calculate this weighted average value as a predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time. .

In this manner, the actual value of power generation when the solar altitude, direction, or trend pattern of power generation is closer to the current situation is given greater weight, making it possible to more accurately obtain the predicted value of power generation. It becomes possible.

Similarly, when a plurality of similar vectors are searched as shown in FIG. Find the average value of the latest actual values in (k3+s) as the predicted value before the above correction, and then multiply the predicted value before correction by the third correction coefficient or the fourth correction coefficient. It may be calculated as a corrected predicted value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic equipment 900 after a predetermined period of time.

With this aspect, it is possible to predict the amount of power generated after a predetermined time from now based on the subsequent trends in power generation amount of similar patterns (similar vectors) in the past, and it is possible to predict the amount of power generated after a certain time from now 900 power generation amount can be predicted more accurately.

Alternatively, if a plurality of similar vectors are searched, the second power generation amount prediction unit 103B calculates the latest performance in each precedent vector x(k1+s), x(k2+s), x(k3+s) The weighted average value of these actual values can be calculated by multiplying the value by a coefficient that is larger as the latest actual value in the precedent vector corresponds to an actual value that is closer to the current value or a similar vector that has a smaller norm with the nearest vector. The predicted value before correction is calculated, and the value obtained by multiplying the predicted value before correction by the third correction coefficient or the fourth correction coefficient is used as the predicted value after correction of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time. It may be calculated as a value.

With this aspect, it is also possible to predict the amount of power generated after a predetermined time from now based on the subsequent trends in the amount of power generated in similar patterns (similar vectors) in the past, so that solar power generation in the short term can be predicted. It becomes possible to predict the power generation amount of the equipment 900 more accurately. Since the actual value of the amount of power generated when the solar altitude, direction, or transition pattern of the amount of power generation is closer to the current situation, the weight becomes larger, so it becomes possible to obtain a predicted value of the amount of power generation more accurately.

==Processing flow==
Next, a method of controlling the solar power generation amount prediction device according to the present embodiment will be explained with reference to FIG. FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing the procedure, and these steps are realized by the CPU 110 executing the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 stored in the storage device 130 of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100. Ru.

First, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 identifies the most recent vector whose element is the actual value of the amount of power generation within the most recent first period from the amount of power generation management table 300 (S1000).

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 searches the power generation amount management table 300 for a candidate vector whose norm with the nearest vector is less than or equal to the first predetermined value (S1010).

Here, if more than the first predetermined number (a natural number of 1 or more, which can be arbitrarily set) or more candidate vectors are not found, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 proceeds to NO in S1020, and the first predetermined value is changed to a larger second predetermined value, and the search for a candidate vector is performed again (S1010).

On the other hand, if more than the first predetermined number of candidate vectors are found, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 selects similar vectors from among the candidate vectors (S1040). Specifically, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 determines that, regarding the latest actual value in the candidate vector and the latest actual value in the most recent vector, the difference in date between each actual value is within a first number of days, and , candidate vectors whose time difference is within the first hour and whose weather information is the same are selected as similar vectors. Note that the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 may select similar vectors with respect to the latest actual value in the candidate vectors and the latest actual value in the most recent vector, excluding those on the same day.

If the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 does not find similar vectors equal to or greater than the second predetermined number (a natural number greater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to the first predetermined number, which can be arbitrarily set), the process proceeds to NO in S1050; The similar vector selection conditions are changed and the search for similar vectors is performed again (S1060).

Specifically, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 changes the first number of days to a second, larger number of days, and searches for a similar vector again. Alternatively, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 changes the above-mentioned first time to a larger second time and searches for a similar vector again.

If more than the second predetermined number of similar vectors are found in this way, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the amount of power generation stored in the power generation amount management table 300 using the amount of solar radiation on the horizontal plane outside the atmosphere. Correction coefficients (first correction coefficient, second correction coefficient, third correction coefficient, fourth correction coefficient ) is calculated (S1070).

Specifically, when calculating the first correction coefficient, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the installation of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) from the end of the similar vector described above. y1'(t) _real , which is the instantaneous value of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at a location, and the value y1, which is obtained by smoothing this instantaneous value using the above-mentioned calculation formula used to smooth the actual value of power generation amount. '(t) _delay and is determined as the first correction coefficient R1 (t).

Alternatively, when calculating the second correction coefficient, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the atmospheric pressure at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) from the end point of the similar vector described above. y2'(t) _real , which is the instantaneous value of the theoretical value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 obtained from the external horizontal solar radiation amount, and this instantaneous value is used as described above when smoothing the actual value of the power generation amount. The ratio of the smoothed value y2'(t) _delay using the above calculation formula is determined as the second correction coefficient R2 (t).

Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 applies the first correction coefficient R1(t) or the second correction coefficient to the actual value of the power generation amount at the latest date and time in the precedent vector after a predetermined time has passed (for example, 30 minutes) from the similar vector. A value obtained by removing the influence of smoothing by multiplying by R2(t) is calculated as a predicted value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time (S1080).

In addition, in S1070, when calculating the third correction coefficient, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the solar power generation amount at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) from the end of the most recent vector. The instantaneous value y3'(t)real of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere and the value y3'(t) obtained by smoothing this instantaneous value using the above-mentioned calculation formula used to smooth the actual value of power generation amount. The ratio of delay and delay is determined as the third correction coefficient R3(t).

Alternatively, when calculating the fourth correction coefficient, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the external horizontal plane at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) from the end of the most recent vector. Using the instantaneous value y'4(t)real of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 obtained from the solar radiation amount and this instantaneous value, using the above-mentioned calculation formula used when smoothing the actual value of the power generation amount. The ratio between the smoothed value y4'(t)delay and the smoothed value y4'(t)delay is determined as the correction coefficient R4(t).

In these cases, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 applies the third correction coefficient R3(t) or the fourth correction coefficient R4( A value obtained by correcting the predicted value by multiplying by t) to remove the influence of smoothing is calculated as a corrected predicted value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 after a predetermined time (S1080).

In this way, according to the control method of the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment, a predetermined value is determined from the present based on the subsequent trend in power generation amount of a similar pattern (similar vector) of past power generation amount. By predicting the amount of power generated after a certain period of time and correcting it to remove the effects of smoothing included in the predicted value, it is possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 in a short period of time. become.

The solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment, the control method and program for the solar power generation amount prediction device have been described above, and the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 and the solar power generation amount prediction device according to this embodiment According to the control method and program, it becomes possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 in a short period of time.

Note that the embodiments described above are for facilitating understanding of the present invention, and are not intended to be interpreted as limiting the present invention. The present invention may be modified and improved without departing from its spirit, and the present invention also includes equivalents thereof.

100 Solar power generation amount prediction device 101 Power generation amount storage unit 102 Vector search unit 103A First power generation amount prediction unit 103B Second power generation amount prediction unit 104A First correction coefficient calculation unit 104B Second correction coefficient calculation unit 104C Third correction coefficient calculation Section 104D Fourth correction coefficient calculation section 110 CPU
120 Memory 130 Storage device 140 Recording medium reading device 150 Communication device 160 Input device 170 Output device 300 Power generation management table 700 Solar power generation amount prediction device control program 800 Recording medium 900 Solar power generation equipment

Claims (12)

A solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates a predicted value of the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility after a predetermined time,
a power generation amount storage unit that stores a value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment using a predetermined calculation formula as an actual value of the power generation amount in association with date and time information;
a vector search unit that searches the power generation amount storage unit for a similar vector whose norm with the most recent vector whose elements are the actual performance values within the most recent first period is a first predetermined value or less;
The ratio of the instantaneous value to the value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the extra-atmospheric horizontal solar radiation at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end point of the similar vector using the calculation formula. a first correction coefficient calculation unit that calculates one correction coefficient;
The instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment obtained from the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end of the similar vector is smoothed using the calculation formula. a second correction coefficient calculation unit that calculates a ratio of the instantaneous value to the value as a second correction coefficient;
A value obtained by multiplying the actual value after the predetermined period from the end of the similar vector by the first correction coefficient or the second correction coefficient is used as a predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time. a first power generation amount prediction unit that calculates;
The ratio of the instantaneous value to the value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the extra-atmospheric horizontal solar radiation at the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end of the most recent vector using the calculation formula. a third correction coefficient calculation unit that calculates the third correction coefficient;
The instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment obtained from the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined period from the end of the most recent vector is smoothed using the calculation formula. a fourth correction coefficient calculation unit that calculates the ratio of the instantaneous value to the value as a fourth correction coefficient;
The actual value after the predetermined period from the end of the similar vector is used as the uncorrected predicted value of the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment, and further the third correction is made to the uncorrected predicted value. a second power generation amount prediction unit that calculates a value multiplied by a coefficient or the fourth correction coefficient as a corrected predicted value of the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment;
A solar power generation amount prediction device. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1,
If multiple similar vectors are searched,
The first correction coefficient calculation unit and the second correction coefficient calculation unit each calculate the first correction coefficient and the second correction coefficient for each of the similar vectors,
The first power generation amount prediction unit calculates, for each similar vector, the product of the actual value after the predetermined time from the end point of the similar vector and the first correction coefficient or the second correction coefficient, and calculates the product of the product. A solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates an average value as the predicted value. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1,
If multiple similar vectors are searched,
The second power generation amount prediction unit calculates the average value of the actual values after the predetermined time from the end point of the similar vector as the pre-correction predicted value, and applies the third correction coefficient or A solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates a value multiplied by the fourth correction coefficient as a corrected predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1,
If multiple similar vectors are searched,
The first correction coefficient calculation unit and the second correction coefficient calculation unit each calculate the first correction coefficient and the second correction coefficient for each of the similar vectors,
The first power generation amount prediction unit calculates, for each of the similar vectors, the product of the actual value after the predetermined time from the end of the similar vector and the first correction coefficient or the second correction coefficient, and The product of the closer actual value and the first correction coefficient or the second correction coefficient, or the product of the actual value and the first correction coefficient after the predetermined time from the end point of a similar vector whose norm with the nearest vector is smaller, or A solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates a weighted average value of the product by multiplying the product with the second correction coefficient by a larger coefficient, and calculates the weighted average value as the predicted value. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1,
If multiple similar vectors are searched,
The second power generation amount prediction unit is configured to set the actual value after the predetermined time from the end point of the similar vector to an actual value closer to the current time, or the predetermined time period from the end point of the similar vector having a smaller norm with respect to the most recent vector. The weighted average value of the actual value is obtained as the pre-correction predicted value by multiplying the actual value after the passage of time by a larger coefficient, and the third correction coefficient or the fourth correction coefficient is applied to the pre-correction predicted value. A solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates a multiplied value as a corrected predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 5,
The power generation amount storage unit stores the actual value in association with date and time information and weather information,
The vector search unit searches the power generation amount storage unit for a candidate vector whose norm with the most recent vector is equal to or less than the first predetermined value, and then searches the latest actual value in the candidate vector and the most recent actual value in the most recent vector. Candidate vectors in which the date difference between each actual value is within the first number of days, the time difference is within the first hour, the weather information is the same, and the date is not the same day with respect to the latest actual value. A solar power generation amount prediction device that selects as the similar vector. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to claim 6,
When the candidate vector cannot be searched, the vector search unit changes the first predetermined value to a second predetermined value larger than the first predetermined value and searches for the candidate vector again. A solar power generation amount prediction device. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to claim 6 or 7,
When the similar vector cannot be searched, the vector search unit changes the first number of days to a second number of days larger than the first number of days and searches for the similar vector again. Photovoltaic power generation prediction device. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 6 to 8,
When the similar vector cannot be searched, the vector search unit changes the first time to a second time that is larger than the first time and searches for the similar vector again. Photovoltaic power generation prediction device. The solar power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 6 to 9,
A solar power generation amount prediction device, wherein the weather information includes sunny, cloudy, rain, and snow. A method of controlling a solar power generation amount prediction device that obtains a predicted value of the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility after a predetermined time, the method comprising:
The solar power generation amount prediction device includes:
The most recent first period is stored from the power generation storage unit that stores the instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment smoothed using a predetermined calculation formula as the actual value of the power generation amount in association with date and time information. searching for a similar vector whose norm with the nearest vector whose element is the actual value within is less than or equal to a first predetermined value;
The ratio of the instantaneous value to the value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the extra-atmospheric horizontal solar radiation at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end point of the similar vector using the calculation formula. Obtained as 1 correction coefficient,
The instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment obtained from the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end of the similar vector is smoothed using the calculation formula. Determining the ratio of the instantaneous value to the value as a second correction coefficient,
A value obtained by multiplying the actual value after the predetermined period from the end of the similar vector by the first correction coefficient or the second correction coefficient is used as a predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time. Calculate,
The ratio of the instantaneous value to the value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the extra-atmospheric horizontal solar radiation at the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end of the most recent vector using the calculation formula. 3 Find it as a correction coefficient,
The instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment obtained from the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined period from the end of the most recent vector is smoothed using the calculation formula. Determining the ratio of the instantaneous value to the value as a fourth correction coefficient,
The actual value after the predetermined period from the end of the similar vector is used as the uncorrected predicted value of the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment, and further the third correction is made to the uncorrected predicted value. A control method for a solar power generation amount prediction device, wherein a value multiplied by a coefficient or the fourth correction coefficient is calculated as a corrected predicted value of the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment. A program for obtaining a predicted value of the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility after a predetermined time,
to the computer,
The most recent first period is stored from the power generation storage unit that stores the instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment smoothed using a predetermined calculation formula as the actual value of the power generation amount in association with date and time information. a step of searching for a similar vector whose norm with the nearest vector whose element is the actual value within is less than or equal to a first predetermined value;
The ratio of the instantaneous value to the value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the extra-atmospheric horizontal solar radiation at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end point of the similar vector using the calculation formula. A procedure for obtaining one correction coefficient,
The instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment obtained from the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end of the similar vector is smoothed using the calculation formula. a step of determining the ratio of the instantaneous value to the value as a second correction coefficient;
A value obtained by multiplying the actual value after the predetermined period from the end of the similar vector by the first correction coefficient or the second correction coefficient is used as a predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined time. Steps to calculate and
The ratio of the instantaneous value to the value obtained by smoothing the instantaneous value of the extra-atmospheric horizontal solar radiation at the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation equipment after the predetermined time from the end of the most recent vector using the calculation formula. 3 Procedures for obtaining correction coefficients,
The instantaneous value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment obtained from the amount of horizontal solar radiation outside the atmosphere at the installation location of the solar power generation equipment after the predetermined period from the end of the most recent vector is smoothed using the calculation formula. a step of determining the ratio of the instantaneous value to the value as a fourth correction coefficient;
The actual value after the predetermined period from the end of the similar vector is used as the uncorrected predicted value of the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment, and further the third correction is made to the uncorrected predicted value. a step of calculating a value multiplied by a coefficient or the fourth correction coefficient as a corrected predicted value of the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar power generation equipment;
A program to run.

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