JP7589637B2 - Information processing method, information processing device, and program - Google Patents

Description

This disclosure relates to an information processing method, an information processing device, and a program.

Patent document 1 discloses a population estimation device. The population estimation device disclosed in patent document 1 estimates population or demographics using location information from communication terminals.

International Publication No. 2016/063425

The purpose of this disclosure is to estimate the number of vehicles that visited a given location.

An information processing method according to a first aspect of the present disclosure includes:
1. A computer-implemented information processing method, comprising:
A vehicle of a specified manufacturer is designated as the first vehicle,
Among the vehicles of the specified manufacturer, a vehicle capable of mounting an on-board device having a communication function for communicating with a specified server device is designated as a second vehicle;
a third vehicle is a vehicle of the specified manufacturer that can accommodate the in-vehicle device and for which a contract has been made to enable the communication function of the in-vehicle device;
The information processing method includes:
Identifying the third vehicles that have visited a predetermined location based on location information of each of the third vehicles transmitted from the in-vehicle device mounted in each of the third vehicles to the predetermined server device;
When the vehicles of the specified manufacturer are classified into a plurality of groups, the number of visits of the third vehicles for each of the groups is acquired among the plurality of third vehicles that have visited the specified location;
estimating the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group based on the number of visits of the third vehicles for each group and the ratio of the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles to the number of registered vehicles of the third vehicles for each group in a specified area, and calculating an estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles that visited the specified location as the sum of the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group;
Calculating an estimated number of visits by the first vehicles that visited the specified location based on the estimated number of visits by the second vehicles and a ratio between the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicles and the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles in the specified area;
Calculating an estimate of the number of visits of all vehicles that visited the specified location based on the estimate of the number of visits of the first vehicle and a ratio of the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers to the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicle in the specified area;
Includes.

An information processing device according to a second aspect of the present disclosure includes:
A vehicle of a specified manufacturer is designated as the first vehicle,
Among the vehicles of the specified manufacturer, a vehicle capable of mounting an on-board device having a communication function for communicating with a specified server device is designated as a second vehicle;
a third vehicle is a vehicle of the specified manufacturer that can accommodate the in-vehicle device and for which a contract has been made to enable the communication function of the in-vehicle device;
Identifying the third vehicles that have visited a predetermined location based on location information of each of the third vehicles transmitted from the in-vehicle device mounted in each of the third vehicles to the predetermined server device;
When the vehicles of the specified manufacturer are classified into a plurality of groups, the number of visits of the third vehicles for each of the groups is acquired among the plurality of third vehicles that have visited the specified location;
estimating the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group based on the number of visits of the third vehicles for each group and the ratio of the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles to the number of registered vehicles of the third vehicles for each group in a specified area, and calculating an estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles that visited the specified location as the sum of the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group;
Calculating an estimated number of visits by the first vehicles that visited the specified location based on the estimated number of visits by the second vehicles and a ratio between the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicles and the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles in the specified area;
Calculating an estimated number of visits of all vehicles that visited the specified location based on an estimated number of visits of the first vehicle and a ratio of the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers to the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicle in the specified area;
The control unit executes the above.

A program according to a third aspect of the present disclosure includes:
A program for causing a computer to execute an information processing method,
A vehicle of a specified manufacturer is designated as the first vehicle,
Among the vehicles of the specified manufacturer, a vehicle capable of mounting an on-board device having a communication function for communicating with a specified server device is designated as a second vehicle;
a third vehicle is a vehicle of the specified manufacturer that can accommodate the in-vehicle device and for which a contract has been made to enable the communication function of the in-vehicle device;
The information processing method includes:
Identifying the third vehicles that have visited a predetermined location based on location information of each of the third vehicles transmitted from the in-vehicle device mounted in each of the third vehicles to the predetermined server device;
When the vehicles of the specified manufacturer are classified into a plurality of groups, the number of visits of the third vehicles for each of the groups is acquired among the plurality of third vehicles that have visited the specified location;
estimating the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group based on the number of visits of the third vehicles for each group and the ratio of the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles to the number of registered vehicles of the third vehicles for each group in a specified area, and calculating an estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles that visited the specified location as the sum of the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group;
Calculating an estimated number of visits by the first vehicles that visited the specified location based on the estimated number of visits by the second vehicles and a ratio between the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicles and the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles in the specified area;
Calculating an estimated number of visits of all vehicles that visited the specified location based on an estimated number of visits of the first vehicle and a ratio of the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers to the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicle in the specified area;
Includes.

This disclosure makes it possible to estimate the number of vehicles that have visited a given location.

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a schematic configuration of an estimation system. FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of the server in the first embodiment. FIG. 3 shows an example of a table configuration of vehicle information stored in the vehicle information database. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a table configuration of the first area information stored in the first area information database in the first embodiment. FIG. 5 shows an example of a table configuration of the second area information stored in the second area information database. FIG. 6 is a flowchart of the estimation process. FIG. 7 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of a server according to the second embodiment. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of a table configuration of domestic information stored in the domestic information database. FIG. 9 is a diagram for explaining an example of a method for calculating the specific number of vehicles. FIG. 10 shows an example of a table configuration of the first area information stored in the first area information database in the third embodiment.

Assume that vehicles from various manufacturers visit a specific location. In this case, a vehicle from a specific manufacturer is referred to as a "first vehicle." Furthermore, among the vehicles from the specific manufacturer, a vehicle capable of mounting an on-board device having a communication function for communicating with a specific server device is referred to as a "second vehicle." Furthermore, among the vehicles from the specific manufacturer that can mount an on-board device, a vehicle for which a contract has been made to enable the communication function in the on-board device is referred to as a "third vehicle." The on-board device mounted in the third vehicle (i.e., an on-board device for which a contract has been made to enable the communication function) transmits location information of the third vehicle to a specific server device.

The information processing method according to the first aspect of the present disclosure is an information processing method executed by a computer. In the information processing method according to the first aspect of the present disclosure, the computer estimates the number of visits of vehicles of all manufacturers, including a specified manufacturer and manufacturers other than the specified manufacturer. Here, the number of visits is the number of vehicles that visited a specified location.

At this time, the computer cannot obtain location information of any vehicle other than the third vehicle. In other words, the computer cannot obtain location information of the first vehicle, which does not have an on-board device, and the second vehicle, which does not have a contract to enable the communication function of the on-board device. In addition, the computer cannot obtain location information of any vehicle other than the specified manufacturer. Therefore, the computer cannot directly calculate the number of visits of any vehicle other than the third vehicle based on the location information of that vehicle. Therefore, the computer cannot directly calculate the number of visits of vehicles of all manufacturers based on the location information of vehicles of all manufacturers.

The computer then identifies the third vehicles that have visited the specified location based on the location information of each third vehicle transmitted from the on-board device installed in each third vehicle to a specified server device. Then, when the computer classifies vehicles of a specified manufacturer into multiple groups, it obtains the number of visits per group for the multiple third vehicles that have visited the specified location.

Here, it is assumed that the ratio of the number of visits of the second vehicles to the number of visits of the third vehicles for each group is approximately equal to the ratio of the number of registered second vehicles to the number of registered third vehicles in a predetermined area for each group. The predetermined area may be an area including a predetermined location. The predetermined area may also be an area including a departure point of a third vehicle that visited the predetermined location. The number of registered vehicles in a predetermined area is the number of vehicles that are registered in advance as vehicles existing in the predetermined area. The number of registered vehicles in a predetermined area is considered to be approximate to the number of vehicles operating in the predetermined area. Then, the computer estimates the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group based on the ratio of the number of registered second vehicles to the number of registered third vehicles for each group in the predetermined area and the number of visits of the third vehicles for each group. Furthermore, the computer calculates an estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles that visited the predetermined location as the sum of the estimated number of visits of the second vehicles for each group.

It is further assumed that the ratio between the number of visits by the first vehicle and the number of visits by the second vehicle is approximately equal to the ratio between the number of registered first vehicles and the number of registered second vehicles in the specified area. The computer then calculates an estimate of the number of visits by the first vehicle that visited the specified location based on the ratio between the number of registered first vehicles and the number of registered second vehicles in the specified area and the estimate of the number of visits by the second vehicle.

It is further assumed that the ratio of the number of visits by vehicles of all manufacturers to the number of visits by the first vehicle is approximately equal to the ratio of the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers to the number of registered first vehicles in the specified area. The computer then calculates an estimate of the number of visits by all vehicles that visited the specified location based on the ratio of the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers to the number of registered first vehicles in the specified area and the estimate of the number of visits by the first vehicle.

As described above, according to the information processing method according to the first aspect of the present disclosure, it is possible to estimate the total number of vehicles that have visited a given location based on the number of visiting third vehicles whose location information can be acquired.

Specific embodiments of the present disclosure are described below with reference to the drawings. The dimensions, materials, shapes, and relative positions of the components described in the present embodiment are not intended to limit the technical scope of the present disclosure unless otherwise specified.

First Embodiment
(System Overview)
An estimation system 1 in this embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1. Fig. 1 is a diagram showing a schematic configuration of the estimation system 1. The estimation system 1 includes an on-vehicle device 300 mounted on a plurality of vehicles and a server 400. In the estimation system 1, the on-vehicle devices 300 and the server 400 are connected to each other via a network N1. The network N1 may be, for example, a wide area network (WAN), which is a global public communication network such as the Internet, or a telephone communication network such as a mobile phone.

(In-vehicle device)
Assume that various vehicles visit a predetermined location. Here, the predetermined location is, for example, a predetermined commercial facility. The predetermined location may be determined as a location within a predetermined range in a certain area. In FIG. 1, a vehicle of a predetermined manufacturer among a plurality of vehicles that have visited the predetermined location is defined as a first vehicle 10. The predetermined manufacturer may include a plurality of manufacturers. The first vehicle 10, which is a vehicle of a predetermined manufacturer, includes a vehicle that can be equipped with an in-vehicle device 200, which is an in-vehicle device having a communication function for communicating with the server 400, and a vehicle that cannot be equipped with the in-vehicle device 200. Among the first vehicles 10, a vehicle that can be equipped with the in-vehicle device 200 is defined as a second vehicle 20. Among the second vehicles 20 that can be equipped with the in-vehicle device 200, a vehicle that has a contract (hereinafter, sometimes referred to as a "communication contract") to enable the communication function of the in-vehicle device 200 and a vehicle that does not have a communication contract is defined as a third vehicle 30. Among the in-vehicle devices 200, the in-vehicle device mounted on the third vehicle 30 with which a communication contract has been made is referred to as the in-vehicle device 300. In the estimation system 1, the in-vehicle device 300 transmits vehicle information including position information of the third vehicle 30 to the server 400 at a predetermined period via the network N1.

(server)
The server 400 estimates the number of vehicles that have visited a predetermined location (hereinafter, may be referred to as the "visiting number"). The server 400 estimates the number of vehicles of all manufacturers, including a vehicle of a predetermined manufacturer (first vehicle 10) and vehicles of manufacturers other than the predetermined manufacturer, that have visited the predetermined location (hereinafter, may be referred to as the "total visiting number").

At this time, the server 400 cannot obtain position information of vehicles other than the third vehicle 30. In other words, it cannot obtain position information of the first vehicle 10 and the second vehicle that do not have the in-vehicle device 200, and the second vehicle 20 that has the in-vehicle device 200 but does not have a communication contract. In addition, the server 400 cannot obtain position information of vehicles other than those of a specified manufacturer. Therefore, the server 400 cannot directly calculate the number of visiting vehicles other than the third vehicle 30 based on the position information of vehicles other than the third vehicle 30.

Therefore, the server 400 identifies the third vehicles 30 that have visited the specified location based on the location information of the third vehicles 30 included in the vehicle information received from the in-vehicle device 300. The server 400 then estimates the total number of visits based on the number of visits of the third vehicles 30. The method by which the server 400 estimates the total number of visits will be described in detail later.

The server 400 is configured to include a computer having a processor 410, a main memory unit 420, an auxiliary memory unit 430, and a communication interface (communication I/F) 440. The processor 410 is, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) or a DSP (Digital Signal Processor). The main memory unit 420 is, for example, a RAM (Random Access Memory). The auxiliary memory unit 430 is, for example, a ROM (Read Only Memory). The auxiliary memory unit 430 is, for example, a HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or a disk recording medium such as a CD-ROM, a DVD disk, or a Blu-ray disk. The auxiliary memory unit 430 may also be a removable medium (portable storage medium). Here, examples of removable media include a USB memory or an SD card. The communication I/F 440 is, for example, a LAN (Local Area Network) interface board or a wireless communication circuit for wireless communication.

In the server 400, the auxiliary memory unit 430 stores an operating system (OS), various programs, various information tables, and the like. In the server 400, the processor 410 can load the programs stored in the auxiliary memory unit 430 into the main memory unit 420 and execute them to realize various functions as described below. However, some or all of the functions of the server 400 may be realized by hardware circuits such as ASICs or FPGAs. The server 400 does not necessarily have to be realized by a single physical configuration, and may be composed of multiple computers that work together. The in-vehicle device 200 and the in-vehicle device 300 are also configured to include a computer, just like the server 400.

(Functional configuration)
Next, the functional configuration of the server 400 constituting the estimation system 1 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 2 to Fig. 5. Fig. 2 is a block diagram illustrating an example of the functional configuration of the server 400 in the present embodiment.

The server 400 includes a control unit 401, a communication unit 402, a vehicle information database 403 (vehicle information DB 403), a first area information database 404 (first area information DB 404), and a second area information database 405 (second area information DB 405). The control unit 401 has a function of performing calculation processing for controlling the server 400. The control unit 401 can be realized by a processor 410 in the server 400.

The communication unit 402 has a function of connecting the server 400 to the network N1. The communication unit 402 can be realized by the communication I/F 440 in the server 400. The control unit 401 receives vehicle information of each third vehicle 30 from the multiple in-vehicle devices 300 at a predetermined period by the communication unit 402. The control unit 401 stores the received vehicle information of the third vehicle 30 in the vehicle information DB 403. Note that the server 400 may obtain vehicle information transmitted by the in-vehicle device 300 to a server device other than the server 400 from the server device.

The vehicle information DB 403 can be realized by the auxiliary storage unit 430 in the server 400. FIG. 3 is an example of a table configuration of vehicle information stored in the vehicle information DB 403. As shown in FIG. 3, the vehicle information of the third vehicle 30 stored in the vehicle information DB 403 has a vehicle ID field, a position field, a date and time field, a vehicle type field, and a vehicle model field. An identifier (vehicle ID) for identifying the vehicle is input into the vehicle ID field. Here, the vehicle ID of the third vehicle 30 is input into the vehicle ID field. The position information of the third vehicle 30 is input into the position field. The position information of the third vehicle 30 input into the position field is, for example, latitude and longitude. Based on the position information input into the position field, the location visited by the third vehicle 30 can be identified. The date and time when the in-vehicle device 300 transmitted the vehicle information to the server 400 is input into the date and time field. Based on the date and time input into the date and time field, the visit time when the third vehicle 30 visited a certain location can be identified. The vehicle type field is filled with the vehicle type of the third vehicle 30 that corresponds to the vehicle ID entered in the vehicle ID field. Here, the vehicle type field is filled with the vehicle type determined by a specific manufacturer. The vehicle model field is filled with the vehicle model of the third vehicle 30 that corresponds to the vehicle ID entered in the vehicle ID field.

The first area information DB404 is a database for storing the first area information. The first area information DB404 can be realized by the auxiliary memory unit 430 in the server 400. The first area information is information regarding the number of registered second vehicles 20 in a specified area. Here, the specified area is an area that includes a specified location. The specified area is, for example, an administrative area such as a prefecture that includes the specified location. Note that the specified area does not have to be an administrative area such as a prefecture as long as it is an area that includes the specified location.

Figure 4 is a diagram showing an example of the table configuration of the first area information stored in the first area information DB 404 in this embodiment. As shown in Figure 4, the first area information has a vehicle type field, a third registered number field, and a second registered number field. The vehicle type defined by a specific manufacturer is entered in the vehicle type field.

The number of registered third vehicles (third registered number) in the specified area is entered for each vehicle type in the third registered number field. The number of registered second vehicles 20 (second registered number) in the specified area is entered for each vehicle type in the second registered number field. The number of registered vehicles in the specified area is the number of vehicles that have been pre-registered as being present in the specified area.

The second area information DB 405 is a database for storing second area information. Here, the second area information is information regarding the number of registered first vehicles 10 in a specified area and the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers in the specified area. The second area information DB 405 can be realized by the auxiliary memory unit 430 in the server 400. Figure 5 is an example of a table configuration of the second area information stored in the second area information DB 405. As shown in Figure 5, it has a first registered vehicle number field and a total registered vehicle number field. The first registered vehicle number field stores the number of registered first vehicles 10 in the specified area (first registered vehicle number).
The first registered number entered in the first registered number field is the number of registered vehicles including all vehicle models of a specific manufacturer. The total registered number field is the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers in a specific area (total registered number).

(Calculation of the number of visits by the third vehicle)
The control unit 401 identifies third vehicles 30 that have visited a predetermined location based on the vehicle information stored in the vehicle information DB 403. Specifically, the control unit 401 identifies third vehicles 30 that have visited a predetermined location from the position information of each third vehicle 30 entered in a position field in the vehicle information. The control unit 401 also classifies the identified multiple third vehicles 30 by vehicle type based on the vehicle type of each third vehicle 30 entered in a vehicle type field in the vehicle information. The control unit 401 then calculates the number of visits by third vehicles 30 for each vehicle type.

(Estimated number of visits by the second vehicle)
The specified location is included in the specified area. Therefore, it is assumed that the ratio of the number of visits by the second vehicles to the number of visits by the third vehicles for each vehicle type is approximately equal to the ratio of the second registered number to the third registered number for each vehicle type. Then, the control unit 401 calculates an estimate of the number of visits by the second vehicles 20 including all vehicle types (hereinafter, may be referred to as the "second estimate") based on the ratio of the second registered number to the third registered number for each vehicle type and the number of visits by the third vehicles for each vehicle type.

Specifically, the control unit 401 calculates the second estimated value _N2 including all vehicle types by the following formula (1).

Here, T is a set of each vehicle type, N _i is the number of visits of the third vehicles 30 belonging to the vehicle type i, b _i is the second registered number of the vehicle type i, and a _i is the third registered number of the vehicle type i. Therefore, N _i b _i /a _i in the above (Equation 1) is an estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles 20 belonging to the vehicle type i. In this way, the control unit 401 calculates the second estimated value including all vehicle types by multiplying the ratio of the second registered number to the third registered number for each vehicle type by the number of visits of the third vehicles for each vehicle type and taking the sum for all vehicle types.

It is also possible to assume that the ratio of the number of visits by the second vehicles to the number of visits by the third vehicles, including all vehicle types, without classifying them by vehicle type, is roughly the same as the ratio of the number of second registrations to the number of third registrations, including all vehicle types. In this case, the second estimated value including all vehicle types is calculated based on the ratio of the number of second registrations to the number of third registrations, including all vehicle types, and the number of visits by the third vehicles 30, including all vehicle types. However, the proportion of vehicles with communication contracts may differ for each vehicle type. In other words, the ratio of the number of second registrations to the number of third registrations may differ depending on the vehicle type. Therefore, as in the above formula (1), by taking the sum of the estimated values of the number of visits by the second vehicles 20 belonging to each vehicle type, the second estimated value including all vehicle types can be calculated with higher accuracy.

(Estimated number of vehicles visiting the first vehicle)
It is also assumed that the ratio between the number of visits by the first vehicles and the number of visits by the second vehicles is approximately equal to the ratio between the first registered number and the second registered number including all vehicle types. Then, the control unit 401 calculates an estimate of the number of visits by the first vehicles 10 that visited the specified location (hereinafter, may be referred to as the "first estimate") based on the ratio between the first registered number and the second registered number including all vehicle types and the second estimate including all vehicle types.

ここで、Ｒ_１は第１登録台数であり、Ｒ_２は第２登録台数である。 Specifically, the control unit 401 calculates the first estimated value N1 by multiplying the ratio between the first registered number and the second registered number by the second estimated value _N2 , which includes all vehicle types, as shown in the following equation ( ₂ ).

Here, _R1 is the first registered number and _R2 is the second registered number.

(Estimate of total number of visits)
It is further assumed that the ratio of the total number of visits to the number of visits of the first vehicle is approximately equal to the ratio of the total number of registered vehicles to the first number of registered vehicles. Then, the control unit 401 calculates an estimate of the total number of visits based on the ratio of the total number of registered vehicles to the first number of registered vehicles and the first estimate.

ここで、Ｒ_１は第１登録台数であり、Ｒ_ａｌｌは全登録台数である。 Specifically, the control unit 401 calculates the estimated value N all of the total number of visited vehicles by multiplying the ratio of the total number of registered vehicles to the first registered number by the first estimated value N ₁ , as shown in the following formula ( ₃ ).

Here, _R1 is the first registered number, and _Rall is the total registered number.

(Estimation process)
Next, the estimation process executed by the control unit 401 in the server 400 in the estimation system 1 will be described with reference to Fig. 6. The estimation process is a process for calculating an estimated value of the total number of visits. Fig. 6 is a flowchart of the estimation process. The estimation process is started, for example, when an administrator of the server 400 inputs information about a predetermined location and instructs the server 400 to execute the estimation process.

In the estimation process, first, in S101, the third vehicles 30 that visited the specified location are identified based on the location information of each third vehicle 30 included in the vehicle information stored in the vehicle information DB 403. Here, the administrator of the server 400 may specify a period for estimating the total number of visits. In this case, the control unit 401 identifies the third vehicles 30 that visited the specified location during the period specified by the administrator of the server 400. Specifically, the control unit 401 identifies the third vehicles 30 that visited the specified location during the period specified by the administrator of the server 400 based on the date and time entered in the date and time field and the location information in the vehicle information stored in the vehicle information DB 403. Next, in S102, the number of visits by each type of third vehicle 30 that visited the specified location is calculated.

Next, in S103, the second estimated value including all vehicle types is calculated. At this time, the control unit 401 acquires the second registered number and the third registered number for each vehicle type from the first area information DB 404. Then, the control unit 401 calculates the second estimated value for each vehicle type based on the ratio between the second registered number and the third registered number for each vehicle type and the number of visits of the third vehicle for each vehicle type. Furthermore, the control unit 401 calculates the second estimated value including all vehicle types by taking the sum of the second estimated values for each vehicle type. Next, in S104, the first estimated value is calculated based on the ratio between the first registered number and the second registered number including all vehicle types and the second estimated value including all vehicle types. At this time, the control unit 401 calculates the second registered number including all vehicle types by taking the sum of the second registered numbers for each vehicle type stored in the first area information DB 404. Furthermore, the control unit 401 acquires the first registered number from the second area information DB 405. Next, in S105, an estimate of the total number of visited vehicles is calculated based on the ratio between the total number of registered vehicles and the first number of registered vehicles and the second estimate. At this time, the control unit 401 acquires the total number of registered vehicles from the second area information DB 405. Then, the estimation process is terminated.

As described above, in the estimation system 1, the server 400 calculates an estimate of the total number of visits based on the number of visits of the third vehicle 30. In other words, in the estimation system 1, it is possible to calculate the number of visits of vehicles of all manufacturers, including the number of visits of vehicles other than the third vehicle 30 that visited a specified location. In this manner, it is possible to estimate the number of vehicles that visited a specified location. Note that in this embodiment, the multiple vehicle models defined by a specified manufacturer correspond to the "multiple groups" according to the present disclosure.

(Variation 1)
In this modified example, it is assumed that there is a vehicle type with a low ratio of vehicles with a communication contract (hereinafter, sometimes simply referred to as "contract rate"). In this case, the ratio between the second and third registered numbers of vehicles with a relatively low contract rate is greater than the ratio between the second and third registered numbers of vehicles with a relatively high contract rate. Therefore, when the same number of third vehicles 30 of vehicles with a low contract rate and vehicles with a high contract rate visit a predetermined location, the estimated number of visits of the second vehicles with a low contract rate is greater than the estimated number of visits of the second vehicles with a high contract rate. Therefore, when a vehicle type with a significantly low contract rate exists, the estimated number of visits of the vehicle type may have an excessively large effect on the second estimated value _N2 calculated by the above formula (1).

Therefore, in this modified example, the second estimated value is calculated by excluding the second vehicles 20 belonging to a vehicle type whose contract rate is equal to or lower than a predetermined first threshold (hereinafter, sometimes referred to as a "low contract rate vehicle type"). Specifically, the server 400 calculates the contract rate for each vehicle type based on the third registered number and the second registered number for each vehicle type in the first area information. Here, the contract rate for each vehicle type is calculated by dividing the third registered number for each vehicle type by the second registered number for each vehicle type. Then, the server 400 calculates the second estimated value _N2 by excluding the low contract rate vehicle type in the above formula (1). Specifically, the server 400 calculates the second estimated value _N2 by excluding the value of N _{i bi} /a _i of the low contract rate vehicle type in ΣN _{i bi} /a _i in the above formula (1). However, the registered number of the low contract rate vehicle type is included in the first registered number. That is, the number of low contract rate vehicle models is included in the first registered number _R1 when calculating the first estimated value _N1 in the above formula (2). That is, the number of registered low contract rate vehicle models is considered to be included in the number of first vehicles 10 that are not equipped with the in-vehicle device 200, and the first estimated value _N1 is estimated.

In this way, by excluding the number of visits by the second vehicle 20 that belong to the low contract rate vehicle type when calculating the estimated value of the number of visits by the second vehicle, it is possible to suppress the impact on the estimation accuracy of the second estimate. As a result, it is possible to calculate a more accurate estimate of the total number of visits.

(Variation 2)
In this modified example, a case is assumed in which there is a vehicle type with a small number of registered third vehicles 30 in a specified area (the number of third vehicles 30 registered as existing in a specified area). In this case, there is a risk that a third vehicle 30 of a vehicle type with a significantly small number of registered third vehicles 30 in a specified area visits a specified location with probabilistic uncertainty. Therefore, the server 400 calculates the second estimated value by excluding the second vehicle 20 of a vehicle type with a significantly small number of registered third vehicles 30 in a specified area. Specifically, the server 400 identifies a vehicle type (hereinafter, sometimes referred to as a "minority vehicle type") whose third registered number in the first area information is equal to or less than a predetermined second threshold. Then, the server 400 calculates the second estimated value _N2 by excluding the value of N _i b _i /a _i of the minority vehicle type in ΣN _i b _i /a _i in the above formula (1). However, the number of registered vehicles of the minority vehicle type is included in the first registered number. That is, the number of vehicles of a minority model is included in the first registered number _R1 when calculating the first estimated value _N1 in the above formula (2). That is, the first estimated value _N1 is estimated by regarding the number of registered vehicles of a minority model as being included in the number of first vehicles 10 that are not equipped with the in-vehicle device 200. In this way, when calculating an estimated value of the number of visits of second vehicles, by excluding the number of visits of second vehicles 20 belonging to a minority model that involves probabilistic uncertainty, it is possible to suppress the influence on the estimation accuracy of the second estimated value. As a result, it is possible to calculate an estimated value of the total number of visits with higher accuracy.

(Variation 3)
In this modified example, it is assumed that there exists a vehicle type in which the third registered number is different from the number of third vehicles 30 that are actually communicating with the server 400 in a specified area (hereinafter, sometimes referred to as the "communicating number"). For example, when there are many third vehicles 30 in which the in-vehicle device 300 is not actually used even though a communication contract has been made, the third registered number is different from the communicating number. When there exists a vehicle type in which the difference between the third registered number and the communicating number is significantly large, there is a risk that the estimated value of the visiting number of the vehicle type of the vehicle type has an excessively large influence on the second estimated value _N2 calculated by the above formula (1).

Therefore, the server 400 calculates the second estimated value by excluding vehicles belonging to vehicle types for which the difference between the third registered number and the communicating number is equal to or greater than a predetermined value (hereinafter, may be referred to as "divergent vehicle types"). At this time, the server 400 counts the communicating number for each vehicle type based on the vehicle information stored in the vehicle information DB 403. Note that the vehicle whose vehicle information is stored in the vehicle information DB 403 can be regarded as the third vehicle 30 communicating with the server 400. Furthermore, the server 400 identifies the divergent vehicle types based on the counted communicating number for each vehicle type and the third registered number for each vehicle type stored in the first area information DB.

Then, the server 400 calculates the second estimated value _N2 by excluding the value of N _{i bi} /a _i of the deviating vehicle type in ΣN _{i bi} /a _i in the above formula (1). However, the registered number of the deviating vehicle type is included in the first registered number. That is, the number of the deviating vehicle type is included in the first registered number R ₁ when calculating the first estimated value _N1 in the above formula (2). That is, the registered number of the deviating vehicle type is considered to be included in the number of the first vehicle 10 that does not have the in-vehicle device 200, and the first estimated value _N1 is estimated. In this way, by excluding the number of visits of the second vehicle 20 belonging to the deviating vehicle type when calculating the estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicle, it is possible to suppress the influence on the estimation accuracy of the second estimated value. As a result, it is possible to calculate an estimated value of the total number of visits with higher accuracy.

Second Embodiment
In this embodiment, the server 400 calculates the uncertainty of the estimated value of the total number of visiting vehicles in the first embodiment. Only the differences from the first embodiment will be described below. Fig. 7 is a block diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the server 400 in this embodiment. In this embodiment, the server 400 includes a control unit 401, a communication unit 402, a vehicle information DB 403, a first area information DB 404, a second area information DB 405, and a domestic information database 406 (domestic information DB 406).

The domestic information DB406 is a database for storing domestic information. Here, the domestic information is information regarding the number of vehicles in a country that includes a specified area. The domestic information DB406 can be realized by the auxiliary memory unit 430 in the server 400. Figure 8 is a diagram showing an example of a table configuration of domestic information stored in the domestic information DB406.

As shown in FIG. 8, the domestic information has a vehicle type field, a communication number field, a third registered number field, and a second registered number field. The vehicle type to which the third vehicle 30 belongs is input in the vehicle type field. The number of third vehicles 30 that are actually communicating with the server 400 in Japan (communicating number in Japan) is input in the communication number field for each vehicle type input in the vehicle type field. The third registered number field is the registered number of third vehicles 30 in Japan (third registered number in Japan) for each vehicle type input in the vehicle type field. The second registered number field is the registered number of second vehicles 20 in Japan (second registered number in Japan) for each vehicle type input in the vehicle type field.

(Systematic error)
The server 400 calculates the estimated value of the total number of visits in the same manner as in the first embodiment. In this embodiment, the server 400 further calculates a systematic error, which is an error caused by the calculation method of the estimated value of the total number of visits. In this embodiment, the server 400 calculates the systematic error by the following method.

The control unit 401 calculates a third estimated value for each vehicle type based on the number of communicating vehicles in the country, the third registered number in the country, and the second registered number in the country, which are included in the domestic information. Here, the third estimated value is an estimated value of the number of second vehicles 20 present in the country. Specifically, the control unit 401 calculates the third estimated value for each vehicle type by multiplying the ratio of the second registered number to the third registered number in the country for each vehicle type by the number of communicating vehicles in the country. In other words, the third estimated value is calculated by a method similar to the method of calculating the second estimated value in the first embodiment.

The control unit 401 also calculates the ratio (hereinafter, sometimes referred to as the "predetermined ratio") between the second registered number in Japan of one of the multiple vehicle models and the total of the second registered numbers in Japan of each vehicle model other than the one vehicle model. The control unit 401 also calculates the total of the third estimated values of each vehicle model other than the one vehicle model.

The control unit 401 also calculates the product of the total value of the third estimated values of each vehicle type other than the one vehicle type and a predetermined ratio for the one vehicle type as the specific number of second vehicles 20 belonging to the one vehicle type. Then, it calculates the ratio of the difference between the third estimated value of the one vehicle type and the specific number of second vehicles 20 belonging to the one vehicle type to the third estimated value of the one vehicle type (hereinafter, sometimes simply referred to as the "difference ratio").

Figure 9 is a diagram for explaining an example of a method for calculating the specific number of vehicles. In Figure 9, the third estimated values of vehicle type A, vehicle type B, and vehicle type C are 1000, 2000, and 3000. The second registered numbers in Japan of vehicle type A, vehicle type B, and vehicle type C are 10000, 20000, and 30500. Here, assume that the specific number of vehicles related to the second vehicle 20 belonging to vehicle type C is calculated. In this case, the total of the third estimated values of each vehicle type other than vehicle type C (vehicle type A and vehicle type B) is 30000, which is the total of 10000 vehicles of vehicle type A and 20000 vehicles of vehicle type B. The predetermined ratio related to vehicle type C, which is the ratio between the second registered number in Japan of vehicle type C and the total of the second registered number in Japan of each vehicle type other than vehicle type C, is 30500/(10000+20000). In addition, since the third estimated value for vehicle type A is 1000 vehicles and the third estimated value for vehicle type B is 2000 vehicles, the total of the third estimated values for each vehicle type other than vehicle type C is 3000. Therefore, the specific number of second vehicles 20 belonging to vehicle type C is 3050 vehicles, which is the predetermined ratio of 30500/30000 multiplied by 3000, which is the total of the third estimated values for each vehicle type other than vehicle type C.

In the above case, the control unit 401 calculates the ratio of the difference between the third estimated value for vehicle type C and the specific number of second vehicles 20 belonging to vehicle type C to the third estimated value for vehicle type C as the difference ratio for vehicle type C. Specifically, the difference ratio for vehicle type C is calculated by the following formula (4).

The control unit 401 also calculates the difference ratio for each of the multiple vehicle models other than the one vehicle model. For example, in the example shown in FIG. 9, the difference ratio is calculated for each of vehicle models A and B in the same manner as above. The control unit 401 then calculates the unbiased standard deviation of the difference ratio for each of the multiple vehicle models as the systematic error. Note that the control unit 401 may also calculate the square root of the unbiased variance of the difference ratio as the systematic error.

ここで、Ｘは、確率変数（第３車両３０の訪問台数）であり、λはｋ台の第３車両３０が所定の場所を訪問する事象が起こる平均値であり、ｅはネイピア数である。 (Statistical error)
In this embodiment, the server 400 further calculates a statistical error, which is an error that appears due to a probabilistic event that the third vehicle visits a predetermined location. Here, the number of visits of the third vehicle 30 that visits the predetermined location occurs discretely. Therefore, the occurrence probability of the number of visits of the third vehicle 30 follows the Poisson distribution. The probability mass function P of the Poisson distribution is expressed by the following equation (5).

Here, X is a random variable (the number of visits by the third vehicles 30), λ is the average value for the event that k third vehicles 30 visit a given location, and e is Napier's constant.

ここで、Ｎは、第３車両３０の訪問台数である。第３車両３０の訪問台数Ｎは、車両情報ＤＢに格納されている車両情報に基づいて算出することができる。 Therefore, the control unit 401 calculates the statistical error ΔN based on the following equation (6), using the number of third vehicles 30 that have visited a specific location as a random variable.

Here, N is the number of visits of the third vehicle 30. The number N of visits of the third vehicle 30 can be calculated based on the vehicle information stored in the vehicle information DB.

ここで、Ｅ_１は系統誤差であり、Ｅ_２は統計誤差である。 (Uncertainty calculation)
The control unit 401 calculates the uncertainty of the estimated value of the total number of visits based on the calculated systematic error and statistical error. Specifically, the control unit 401 calculates the uncertainty E based on the following formula (7).

where _E1 is the systematic error and _E2 is the statistical error.

As described above, the uncertainty of the estimated value of the total number of visits, which includes both systematic error and statistical error, is calculated in the estimation system 1. This makes it possible to estimate the uncertainty of the estimated value of the total number of visits calculated by the server 400.

(Variation 1)
As described above, in this embodiment, the server 400 calculates the systematic error based on the number of communicating vehicles, the second registered number, and the third registered number in the country. However, the server 400 does not necessarily have to calculate the systematic error based on these values. In other words, the server 400 can calculate the systematic error based on the number of communicating vehicles, the second registered number, and the third registered number in an area wider than the specified area including the specified location.

ここで、Ｎ_ＡおよびＮ_Ｂはそれぞれ車両型式Ａの第３車両３０の訪問台数および車両型式Ｂの第３車両３０の訪問台数である。また、a_Ａおよびa_Ｂはそれぞれ車両型式Ａの第３登録台数および車両型式Ｂの第３登録台数である。また、b_Ａおよびb_Ｂはそれぞれ車両型式Ａの第３登録台数および車両型式Ｂの第２登録台数である。したがって、Ｎｉ＝Ｎ_Ａ＋Ｎ_Ｂ、ａ_ｉ＝ａ_Ａ＋ａ_Ｂ、ｂ_ｉ＝ｂ_Ａ＋ｂ_Ｂが成立する。 Third Embodiment
In the first embodiment, the second estimated value is calculated based on the ratio between the second registered number and the third registered number for each vehicle type and the number of visits of the third vehicles for each vehicle type. At this time, as shown in the above formula (1), the second estimated value of vehicle type i is given _{by Nibi/ai ( Ni is} the number of visits of the third vehicles 30 belonging to the vehicle type i, _Bi is the second registered number of the vehicle type i, and _Ai is the third registered number of the vehicle type i). Here, one vehicle type may include multiple vehicle types. For example, when vehicle type i includes two types of vehicle types, vehicle type A and vehicle type B, the second estimated value _NAB of vehicle type i is given by the following (formula 8).

Here, N _A and N _B are the number of visits of the third vehicles 30 of vehicle type A and the number of visits of the third vehicles 30 of vehicle type B, respectively. Also, a _A and a _B are the third registered number of vehicle type A and the third registered number of vehicle type B, respectively. Also, b _A and b _B are the third registered number of vehicle type A and the second registered number of vehicle type B, respectively. Therefore, Ni = N _A + N _B , a _i = a _A + a _B , and _bi = b _A + b _B hold.

On the other hand, when the second estimated value of vehicle model i is calculated as the sum of the second estimated values of vehicle model A and vehicle model B, the second estimated value N _AB of vehicle model i is given by the following (Equation 9).

If equations (8) and (9) are taken as identities for N _A and N _B , the condition for the second estimates N _AB of both equations to match is to satisfy the following equation (10).

The left side of equation (10) is the contract rate for vehicle type A, and the right side of equation (10) is the contract rate for vehicle type B. Therefore, if the contract rate for each vehicle type in one vehicle model differs, if the second estimated value is calculated by grouping by vehicle model as in the first embodiment, there is a risk that the estimation accuracy of the second estimated value will be low.

Therefore, in this embodiment, the control unit 401 classifies vehicles (first vehicles 10) of a specified manufacturer into multiple groups based on the contract rate for each vehicle model. Here, each group is classified by vehicle models with similar contract rates. Then, the control unit 401 calculates a second estimated value for each group based on the ratio between the second registered number and the third registered number for each group and the number of visits of the third vehicles for each group. Then, the control unit 401 calculates a second estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles 20 including all vehicle models by taking the sum of the second estimated values for all groups. Below, only the points that are different from the first embodiment will be described.

Figure 10 is an example of a table configuration of the first area information stored in the first area information DB 404 in this embodiment. The first area information stored in the first area information DB 404 in this embodiment has a vehicle type field, a third registered number field, a second registered number field, and a contract rate field. The vehicle type of each vehicle model of a specified manufacturer is input in the vehicle type field. The third registered number field is input with the third registered number in a specified area for each vehicle type input in the vehicle type field. The second registered number field is input with the second registered number in a specified area for each vehicle type input in the vehicle type field. In addition, in the first area information DB 404, the vehicle type, the second registered number, and the third registered number are input for each group classified based on the contract rate. Then, the range of the contract rate in each group is input in the contract rate field. The control unit 401 calculates the contract rate of each vehicle type based on the third registered number and the second registered number. Then, each vehicle model is classified into groups based on the calculated contract rate. For example, each vehicle model is classified into five groups: a group with a contract rate of 80% or more, a group with a contract rate of 60% or more and less than 80%, a group with a contract rate of 40% or more and less than 60%, a group with a contract rate of 20% or more and less than 40%, and a group with a contract rate of 0% or more and less than 20%.

The control unit 401 then calculates the sum of the third registration numbers for each of the multiple vehicle models belonging to each group as the third registration number for each group in the specified area. The control unit 401 also calculates the sum of the second registration numbers for each of the multiple vehicle models belonging to each group as the second registration number for each group in the specified area. The control unit 401 also classifies the third vehicles 30 that have visited the specified location into groups based on the vehicle models of each third vehicle 30 entered in the vehicle type field in the vehicle information. The control unit 401 then calculates the number of visits by third vehicles 30 for each group.

Then, the control unit 401 calculates a second estimated value N2 based on the ratio of the second registered number to the third registered number for each group and the number of visits by the third vehicle for each group. Specifically, the control unit 401 calculates the second estimated value _N2 by the following formula (11).

Here, G is a set of each group, N _i is the number of visits of the third vehicle in group i, b _i is the second number of registrations in group i, and a _i is the third number of registrations in group i. Therefore, N _i b _i /a _i in the above formula (11) is an estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicle 20 belonging to group i. In this way, the control unit 401 calculates the second estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicle 20 including all vehicle types by multiplying the ratio of the second number of registrations to the third number of registrations for each group by the number of visits of the third vehicle for each group and taking the sum for all groups.

As described above, in this embodiment, the second estimated value is calculated for each group classified based on the contract rate for each vehicle model. This makes it possible to calculate the second estimated value for each group classified by vehicle models with similar contract rates. Therefore, it becomes possible to calculate the second estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles 20 with higher accuracy. As a result, it becomes possible to calculate a more accurate estimated value of the total number of visits.

The method of estimating the second estimated value in each modified example of the first embodiment can also be applied to estimating the second estimated value in the third embodiment. In addition, the method of calculating the systematic error, the method of calculating the statistical error, and the method of calculating the uncertainty of the estimated value of the total number of visits in the second embodiment can also be applied to calculating the estimated value of the total number of visits in the third embodiment.

In addition, in each of the above embodiments, the estimation process was performed with the area including the specified location as the "specified area." However, the "specified area" when performing the estimation process is not limited to the area including the specified location. For example, when estimating the number of vehicles that depart from a specified area and visit a specified location outside the specified area, the "specified area" in the estimation process may be set as an area including the departure point of the third vehicle 30 that visited the specified location.

<Other embodiments>
The above-described embodiment is merely an example, and the present disclosure may be modified as appropriate without departing from the spirit and scope of the present disclosure. Furthermore, the processes and means described in the present disclosure may be freely combined and implemented as long as no technical contradiction occurs.

In addition, a process described as being performed by one device may be shared and executed by multiple devices. Or, a process described as being performed by different devices may be executed by one device. In a computer system, the hardware configuration (server configuration) by which each function is realized can be flexibly changed.

The present disclosure can also be realized by supplying a computer program that implements the functions described in the above embodiments to a computer, and having one or more processors of the computer read and execute the program. Such a computer program may be provided to the computer by a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium that can be connected to the system bus of the computer, or may be provided to the computer via a network. Non-transitory computer-readable storage media include any type of medium suitable for storing electronic instructions, such as, for example, a magnetic disk (such as a floppy disk or a hard disk drive (HDD)), an optical disk (such as a CD-ROM, a DVD disk, or a Blu-ray disk), a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), an EPROM, an EEPROM, a magnetic card, a flash memory, or an optical card.

Reference Signs List 1: Estimation system 10: First vehicle 20: Second vehicle 30: Third vehicle 200: On-vehicle device 300: On-vehicle device 400: Server 401: Control unit 402: Communication unit 403: Vehicle information DB
404: First area information DB
405: Second area information DB
406...Domestic information DB

Claims (20)

1. A computer-implemented information processing method, comprising:
A vehicle of a specified manufacturer is designated as the first vehicle,
Among the vehicles of the specified manufacturer, a vehicle capable of mounting an on-board device having a communication function for communicating with a specified server device is designated as a second vehicle;
Among the vehicles of the specified manufacturer in which the in-vehicle device can be installed, a vehicle for which a contract has been made to enable the communication function of the in-vehicle device is defined as a third vehicle;
The information processing method includes:
Identifying the third vehicles that have visited a predetermined location based on location information of each of the third vehicles transmitted from the in-vehicle device mounted in each of the third vehicles to the predetermined server device;
When the vehicles of the predetermined manufacturer are classified into a plurality of groups, the number of vehicles that visited the predetermined location is acquired for each of the groups among the plurality of third vehicles that visited the predetermined location;
estimating the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group based on the number of visits of the third vehicles for each group and the ratio of the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles to the number of registered vehicles of the third vehicles for each group in a specified area, and calculating an estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles that visited the specified location as the sum of the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group;
Calculating an estimated number of visits by the first vehicles that visited the specified location based on the estimated number of visits by the second vehicles and a ratio between the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicles and the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles in the specified area;
Calculating an estimated number of visits of all vehicles that visited the specified location based on an estimated number of visits of the first vehicle and a ratio of the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers to the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicle in the specified area;
Including,
Information processing methods. the plurality of groups are set based on vehicle models defined by the predetermined manufacturer,
The information processing method according to claim 1 . the plurality of groups are set based on a contract rate of a contract for communication between the predetermined server device and the in-vehicle device for each vehicle model;
The information processing method according to claim 1 . When calculating the estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicle, the number of visits of the second vehicle of a group having a contract rate for a communication contract between the predetermined server device and the vehicle-mounted device equal to or less than a predetermined first threshold is excluded from the plurality of groups.
The information processing method according to claim 1 . When calculating the estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicle, the number of visits of the second vehicle of a group in which the number of the third vehicles registered in the specified area is equal to or less than a predetermined second threshold is excluded from the plurality of groups.
The information processing method according to claim 1 . When calculating the estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicle, the number of visits of the second vehicle of a group among the plurality of groups in which a difference between the number of registered vehicles of the third vehicle in the specified area and the number of the third vehicle in the specified area in which communication between the specified server device and the in-vehicle device is actually performed is equal to or greater than a specified value is excluded.
The information processing method according to claim 1 . calculating an estimated number of the second vehicles for each group in the wide area based on the number of the third vehicles for each group in a wide area that is wider than the specified area, in which communication between the specified server device and the in-vehicle device is actually being performed, and a ratio, for each group, between the number of the second vehicles registered in the wide area and the number of the third vehicles registered in the wide area;
calculating a specific number of the second vehicles of the one group by calculating a product of a ratio between the number of registered second vehicles in the wide area of one group among the plurality of groups and the number of registered second vehicles in the wide area of groups other than the one group and a sum of estimated values of the number of the second vehicles in the wide area of each group other than the one group;
Calculating a ratio of a difference between an estimated value of the number of the second vehicles in the wide area of the one group and a specific number of the second vehicles of the one group to an estimated value of the number of the second vehicles in the wide area;
Calculating a systematic error based on the proportions calculated for each group;
Further comprising:
The information processing method according to claim 1 . calculating a statistical error regarding the number of visits of all vehicles that visited the predetermined location based on a Poisson distribution in which the sum of the number of visits of the third vehicles of each group is a random variable;
Further comprising:
The information processing method according to claim 7. calculating an uncertainty regarding the number of visits of all vehicles that visited the predetermined location based on the systematic error and the statistical error;
Further comprising:
The information processing method according to claim 8. A vehicle of a specified manufacturer is designated as the first vehicle,
Among the vehicles of the specified manufacturer, a vehicle capable of mounting an on-board device having a communication function for communicating with a specified server device is designated as a second vehicle;
a third vehicle is a vehicle of the specified manufacturer that can accommodate the in-vehicle device and for which a contract has been made to enable the communication function of the in-vehicle device;
Identifying the third vehicles that have visited a predetermined location based on location information of each of the third vehicles transmitted from the in-vehicle device mounted in each of the third vehicles to the predetermined server device;
When the vehicles of the specified manufacturer are classified into a plurality of groups, the number of visits of the third vehicles for each of the groups is acquired among the plurality of third vehicles that have visited the specified location;
estimating the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group based on the number of visits of the third vehicles for each group and the ratio of the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles to the number of registered vehicles of the third vehicles for each group in a specified area, and calculating an estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles that visited the specified location as the sum of the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group;
Calculating an estimated number of visits by the first vehicles that visited the specified location based on the estimated number of visits by the second vehicles and a ratio between the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicles and the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles in the specified area;
Calculating an estimated number of visits of all vehicles that visited the specified location based on an estimated number of visits of the first vehicle and a ratio of the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers to the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicle in the specified area;
A control unit that executes
Information processing device. the plurality of groups are set based on vehicle models defined by the predetermined manufacturer,
The information processing device according to claim 10. the plurality of groups are set based on a contract rate of a contract for communication between the predetermined server device and the in-vehicle device for each vehicle model;
The information processing device according to claim 10. The control unit is
When calculating the estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicle, the number of visits of the second vehicle of a group having a contract rate for a communication contract between the predetermined server device and the vehicle-mounted device equal to or less than a predetermined first threshold is excluded from the plurality of groups.
The information processing device according to claim 10 . The control unit is
When calculating the estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicle, the number of visits of the second vehicle of a group in which the number of the third vehicles registered in the specified area is equal to or less than a predetermined second threshold is excluded from the plurality of groups.
The information processing device according to claim 10 . The control unit is
When calculating the estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicle, the number of visits of the second vehicle of a group among the plurality of groups is excluded, where a difference between the number of registered vehicles of the third vehicle in the specified area and the number of the third vehicles in the specified area that are actually performing communication between the specified server device and the in-vehicle device is equal to or greater than a specified value.
The information processing device according to claim 10 . The control unit is
calculating an estimated number of the second vehicles for each group in the wide area based on the number of the third vehicles for each group in a wide area that is wider than the specified area, in which communication between the specified server device and the in-vehicle device is actually being performed, and a ratio, for each group, between the number of the second vehicles registered in the wide area and the number of the third vehicles registered in the wide area;
calculating a specific number of the second vehicles of the one group by calculating a product of a ratio between the number of registered second vehicles in the wide area of one group among the plurality of groups and the number of registered second vehicles in the wide area of groups other than the one group and a sum of estimated values of the number of the second vehicles in the wide area of each group other than the one group;
Calculating a ratio of a difference between an estimated value of the number of the second vehicles in the wide area of the one group and a specific number of the second vehicles of the one group to an estimated value of the number of the second vehicles in the wide area;
calculating a systematic error based on the percentage of the difference for each group;
Further execute
The information processing device according to claim 10 . The control unit is
calculating a statistical error regarding the number of visits of all vehicles that visited the predetermined location based on a Poisson distribution in which the sum of the number of visits of the third vehicles of each group is a random variable;
Further execute
The information processing device according to claim 16. A program for causing a computer to execute an information processing method,
A vehicle of a specified manufacturer is designated as the first vehicle,
Among the vehicles of the specified manufacturer, a vehicle capable of mounting an on-board device having a communication function for communicating with a specified server device is designated as a second vehicle;
a third vehicle is a vehicle of the specified manufacturer that can accommodate the in-vehicle device and for which a contract has been made to enable the communication function of the in-vehicle device;
The information processing method includes:
Identifying the third vehicles that have visited a predetermined location based on location information of each of the third vehicles transmitted from the in-vehicle device mounted in each of the third vehicles to the predetermined server device;
When the vehicles of the predetermined manufacturer are classified into a plurality of groups, the number of vehicles that visited the predetermined location is acquired for each of the groups among the plurality of third vehicles that visited the predetermined location;
estimating the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group based on the number of visits of the third vehicles for each group and the ratio of the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles to the number of registered vehicles of the third vehicles for each group in a specified area, and calculating an estimated value of the number of visits of the second vehicles that visited the specified location as the sum of the number of visits of the second vehicles for each group;
Calculating an estimated number of visits by the first vehicles that visited the specified location based on the estimated number of visits by the second vehicles and a ratio between the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicles and the number of registered vehicles of the second vehicles in the specified area;
Calculating an estimate of the number of visits of all vehicles that visited the specified location based on the estimate of the number of visits of the first vehicle and a ratio of the number of registered vehicles of all manufacturers to the number of registered vehicles of the first vehicle in the specified area;
Including,
program. the plurality of groups are set based on vehicle models defined by the predetermined manufacturer,
20. The program of claim 18. the plurality of groups are set based on a contract rate of a contract for communication between the predetermined server device and the in-vehicle device for each vehicle model;
20. The program of claim 18.

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