JP7600651B2 - Distributed power generation estimation system, power generation estimation method, and power generation estimation program - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a system, method, and program for estimating the amount of power generated by distributed power sources such as solar power generation devices and wind power generation devices.

In power supply, it is necessary to grasp and estimate the actual load in order to properly maintain the voltage of the power distribution system and to properly restore and operate the system in the event of an accident. This actual load includes not only the amount of power supplied to consumers from the power distribution system, but also the amount of power generated by distributed power sources and consumed by consumers, so it is necessary to estimate the actual load by estimating the amount of power generated by distributed power sources. Conventionally, for example, the amount of power generated was estimated assuming that the distributed power sources installed at each consumer facility generate ideal, good power, and the actual load was then estimated.

However, power generation from distributed power sources is actually affected by weather and the surrounding environment, and is not always ideal or good, so the amount of power generated fluctuates. This makes it difficult to accurately estimate the amount of power generated and the actual load.

On the other hand, a maximum power generation estimation method is known that can estimate the maximum power generation of a solar power generation system from easily available data (see, for example, Patent Document 1). This estimation method calculates the maximum amount of solar radiation that will be the maximum within a specified period to be predicted, and estimates the maximum power generation of the solar power generation system that can be added to the system current of the power distribution system based on this amount of solar radiation, the installed capacity of the solar power generation system, and a specified coefficient.

JP 2010-193594 A

However, in recent years, there has been an increase in the number of cases where distributed power sources are installed at consumer sites, and the maximum power generation estimation method described in Patent Document 1 requires calculating and predicting the maximum solar radiation for each of a large number of distributed power sources, and estimating the maximum power generation based on this solar radiation and the facility capacity, which makes processing and calculations complicated. Moreover, it is difficult to always accurately calculate and predict the maximum solar radiation, and if there is an error in the prediction of the maximum solar radiation, a large error will occur in the estimation of the power generation in the entire system.

If the amount of power generated by each distributed power source cannot be accurately estimated, the actual load on the entire system cannot be accurately estimated. As a result, it becomes difficult to maintain an appropriate voltage in the power distribution system when a large number of distributed power sources are connected to the system.

The present invention aims to provide a system, method, and program for estimating the amount of power generated by distributed power sources that can accurately estimate the amount of power generated by each distributed power source with a simple configuration.

In order to solve the above problem, the invention of claim 1 is a power generation amount estimation system for a distributed power source, comprising: a power source information storage means for storing power source information including the power generation capacity and installation location of each distributed power source; a pilot distributed power source that is a distributed power source with a power generation capacity orders of magnitude larger than other distributed power sources and that is designated as a pilot distributed power source and that acquires the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source; and a power generation amount estimation means for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that is installed in the surrounding area of the pilot distributed power source and has the same power generation tendency, based on the power source information of the distributed power source and the power source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source.

According to this invention, when the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source is acquired by the pilot power generation amount acquisition means, the power generation amount of the distributed power source that is installed in the surrounding area of the pilot distributed power source and has a similar power generation tendency is estimated by the power generation amount estimation means based on the power supply information of the distributed power source and the power supply information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source.

The invention of claim 2 is characterized in that in the distributed power generation estimation system described in claim 1, the power generation estimation means calculates a power generation rate based on the power generation capacity and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, and estimates the power generation amount based on the power generation rate and the power generation capacity of the distributed power source.

The invention of claim 3 is characterized in that, in the distributed power generation estimation system described in claim 1 or 2 , the power source information includes information that affects the power generation amount of the distributed power source as power generation impact information, and the power generation amount estimation means estimates the power generation amount based on the power generation impact information.

The invention of claim 4 is a method for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source, comprising : a power source information storage step for storing power source information including the power generation capacity and installation location of each distributed power source; a pilot power generation acquisition step for acquiring the power generation amount of a pilot distributed power source, the pilot distributed power source being a distributed power source having a power generation capacity orders of magnitude larger than other distributed power sources; and a power generation amount estimation step for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source installed in the surrounding area of the pilot distributed power source and having a similar power generation tendency, based on the power source information of the distributed power source and the power source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source.

The invention of claim 5 is a distributed power generation estimation program for causing a computer to function as: a power source information storage means for storing power source information including the power generation capacity and installation location of each distributed power source; and a power generation amount estimation means for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that has a power generation capacity orders of magnitude larger than other distributed power sources, which is designated as a pilot distributed power source, based on the power source information of the distributed power source and the power source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, for distributed power sources that are installed in the surrounding area of the pilot distributed power source and have similar power generation tendencies.

According to the inventions of claims 1, 4 and 5 , for a distributed power source installed in the surrounding area of a pilot distributed power source and having a similar power generation tendency, the power generation amount is estimated based on the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, etc. In other words, for a distributed power source whose power generation amount is considered to fluctuate in the same manner (similarly) as the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, the power generation amount is estimated based on the power generation capacity of the distributed power source, the power generation capacity of the pilot distributed power source, and the actual power generation amount, etc. For example, when the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source is high, the power generation amount of the distributed power source to be estimated is also high, and when the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source is low, the power generation amount of the distributed power source to be estimated is also low, and thus the power generation amount of the distributed power source to be estimated is estimated.

This makes it possible to properly estimate the power generation amount for distributed power sources that have the same or similar power generation tendencies (power generation behavior, power generation fluctuations) as the pilot distributed power source. By grouping multiple distributed power sources with the same power generation tendencies and obtaining the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power sources in each group, it becomes possible to properly estimate the power generation amount of each distributed power source over a wide area. As a result of being able to properly estimate the power generation amount of each distributed power source in this way, it becomes possible to properly estimate the actual load in the entire system, and to properly maintain the voltage of the distribution system when a large number of distributed power sources are connected to the grid.

In addition, the actual power generation amount only needs to be obtained for the pilot distributed power source, and the power generation amount can be estimated using only the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source and the power information of each distributed power source, making it possible to estimate the amount with a simple configuration.

According to the invention described in claim 2, the power generation rate is calculated based on the power generation capacity and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, and the power generation amount is estimated based on this power generation rate and the power generation capacity of the distributed power source, so it is possible to estimate the power generation amount more accurately and simply. In other words, a distributed power source that has the same power generation tendency as the pilot distributed power source is considered to have the same power generation rate as the pilot distributed power source, so by multiplying the power generation capacity of this distributed power source by the power generation rate of the pilot distributed power source, it is possible to estimate the power generation amount more accurately and simply.

According to the inventions of claims 1, 4 and 5 , a distributed power source with a power generation capacity incomparably larger than other distributed power sources is set as the pilot distributed power source, so that the amount of power generation can be estimated more accurately. That is, by setting a large-scale distributed power source with a large power generation capacity as the pilot distributed power source and acquiring the amount of power generation of this pilot distributed power source, it becomes possible to acquire and grasp the power generation tendency (power generation rate, etc.) of the pilot distributed power source more accurately, and as a result, it becomes possible to more appropriately estimate the amount of power generation of the distributed power source to be estimated.

According to the third aspect of the present invention, the amount of power generated can be estimated more accurately because the amount of power generated is estimated based on power generation influence information that affects the amount of power generated by the distributed power sources. In other words, the amount of power generated can be estimated more accurately because the amount of power generated is estimated based on factors that affect the amount of power generated, such as the degree of degradation of the distributed power sources and the surrounding environment.

1 is a schematic configuration diagram showing a power generation amount estimation system for a distributed power source according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram showing an estimation computer of the power generation amount estimation system of FIG. 1 . FIG. 3 is a data configuration diagram of a power supply information database of the estimation computer of FIG. 2 . FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of division of a power distribution system diagram in the power generation amount estimation system of FIG. 1 . 3 is a flowchart of an estimation task of the estimation computer of FIG. 2;

The present invention will be described below based on the illustrated embodiment.

Figures 1 to 5 show an embodiment of the present invention, and Figure 1 is a schematic diagram showing a distributed power generation estimation system (hereinafter, appropriately referred to as "power generation estimation system") 1 according to this embodiment. This power generation estimation system 1 is a system for estimating the power generation amount by distributed power sources such as solar power generation equipment and wind power generation equipment, and is mainly composed of a plurality of pilot instruments (pilot power generation acquisition means) 2 and an estimation computer 3, which are connected so as to be able to communicate freely via a communication network NW.

Here, in this embodiment, the case where the distributed power source is a photovoltaic power generation device is mainly described, and each photovoltaic power generation device is connected to the power distribution system of the power company. Also, a small-scale photovoltaic power generation device (hereinafter referred to as "small-scale solar") G _S with a power generation capacity and rated capacity of less than 10 kW and a large-scale photovoltaic power generation device (hereinafter referred to as "mega solar") G _M with a power generation capacity of 1 MW or more that is orders of magnitude larger than these (for example, 10 times or more) are mixed, and the mega solar G _M is used as the pilot distributed power source. Also, the small-scale solar G _S is installed at a consumer who receives power from the power distribution system, and the mega solar G _M is installed on a large site.

The pilot instrument 2 is provided in each mega solar power plant G _M and is an instrument that measures and acquires the actual amount of power generated by the mega solar power plant G _M. That is, it measures the voltage and current output from the mega solar power plant G _M at each predetermined measurement period (e.g., every 15 minutes) and calculates and measures the amount of power generated according to a predetermined calculation formula. Then, it transmits the measured amount of power generated to the estimation computer 3 in real time.

In this embodiment, the amount of power generated is measured on the side of each mega solar power plant G _M (the power generation side), but if all the generated power is transmitted to the power company, the amount of power transmitted, i.e., the amount of power generated, may be measured on the power company side or the power distribution system side. Also, a mega solar power plant G _M is usually provided with a meter for accurately measuring the amount of power generated, and such a meter may be used as the pilot meter 2. Alternatively, a switch with a measurement function (a switch installed in a distribution line and equipped with a function for measuring the voltage and current of high-voltage power lines) may be used.

The estimation computer 3 is installed in the facilities of the electric power company and is used to estimate the power generation of all photovoltaic power generation devices and the actual load in the entire power distribution system. As shown in FIG. 2, the estimation computer 3 mainly comprises a communication unit 31, an input unit 32, a display unit 33, a power source information database (power source information storage means) 34, an estimation task (power generation estimation means) 35, and a central processing unit 36 that controls these components.

The communication unit 31 is an interface for communicating with each pilot instrument 2, etc. The input unit 32 is an interface for inputting various information and commands from the outside, for example, specifying the size and range of each district, which will be described later. The display unit 33 is a display for displaying various information, for example, displaying the power distribution system diagram and estimation results, which will be described later.

The power source information database 34 is a database that stores power source information, including the power generation capacity and installation location of each solar power generation device. As shown in FIG. 3, for each power source ID 341, i.e., for each solar power generation device, the capacity 342, location 343, consumer information 344, pilot 345, group 346, impact information 347, and power generation amount 348 are stored.

The power source ID 341 stores the identification information of the photovoltaic power generation device, and in the case where the photovoltaic power generation device is a mega solar G _M , identification information that can identify the photovoltaic power generation device as a mega solar G _M (for example, the first digit is "1") is stored. The capacity 342 stores the power generation capacity and rated capacity of the photovoltaic power generation device, that is, the amount of power generated when the power generation rate is 100%. Here, since a power conditioner (PCS) is actually provided, if the capacity of the power conditioner is smaller than the power generation capacity of the solar panel, the capacity of the power conditioner is stored as the power generation capacity. In other words, the amount of power generated when the power generation rate is 100% as a photovoltaic power generation system including the power conditioner is stored. The position 343 stores the latitude and longitude of the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation device, and the customer information 344 stores information about the customer who owns and operates the photovoltaic power generation device, such as the customer's name and contact information.

In the pilot 345, identification information of the mega solar G _M that is the reference for estimating the amount of power generation when this photovoltaic power generation device is a small-scale solar G _S is stored, and in the district 346, identification information of the district in which this photovoltaic power generation device is installed is stored. That is, in this embodiment, as shown in FIG. 4, the distribution system diagram is divided into a mesh or net shape at a predetermined interval and divided into a plurality of districts R1 to R12, etc. And, at least the power generation tendency of all the photovoltaic power generation devices installed in the same district is made equal. In other words, the size and range of each district (mesh interval) can be changed, and the size and range of each district are set so that the power generation tendency of all the photovoltaic power generation devices installed in the same district is made equal at least.

Here, "similar power generation trends" means that the power generation amount fluctuates similarly and the power generation behavior and power generation fluctuations are similar; when the power generation amount and power generation rate of one solar power generation device is high, the power generation amount and power generation rate of the other solar power generation devices are also high, and when the power generation amount and power generation rate of one solar power generation device is low, the power generation amount and power generation rate of the other solar power generation devices are also low. For example, if the weather is sunny in district R2, the power generation amount and power generation rate of all solar power generation devices in district R2 is high, if district R7 is sunny with occasional clouds, the power generation amount and power generation rate of all solar power generation devices in district R7 is medium, and if district R11 is rainy, the power generation amount and power generation rate of all solar power generation devices in district R11 will be low (zero).

In addition, the power generation tendency of photovoltaic power generation devices may be the same even in different districts, and furthermore, there may be districts where mega solar power plants G _M are not installed, or multiple mega solar power plants G _M are installed in the same district. For this reason, for example, for a small-scale solar power plant G _S installed in a district where no mega solar power plant G _M is installed, the identification information of a mega solar power plant G _M installed in a district with the same power generation tendency is stored in the pilot 345. In other words, the district of the mega solar power plant G _M stored in the pilot 345 is not necessarily the same as the district stored in the district 346.

For example, for a small-scale solar power plant G _S , where district 1 is stored in district 346, identification information for a mega solar power plant G _M installed in a surrounding district 2 is stored in pilot 345. In this way, in this embodiment, even for a small-scale solar power plant G _S installed in a district where no mega solar power plant G _M is installed, it is possible to estimate the power generation amount as described below based on the power generation amount of the mega solar power plant G _M in the surrounding area.

On the other hand, for a small-scale solar power plant G _S in an area where a mega solar power plant G _M is installed, the identification information of the mega solar power plant G M is stored in the pilot 345. Furthermore, when multiple mega solar power plants G _M are installed in the same area, the identification information of the mega solar power plant G _M with the closest _power generation tendency is stored in the pilot 345.

The influence information 347 stores information that affects the amount of power generated by this photovoltaic power generation device as power generation influence information. For example, if the photovoltaic power generation device is deteriorated or if there is a time period when sunlight is blocked by the surrounding environment such as a building, that fact is stored, and further, how much (for example, by how many percent) the amount of power generation and the power generation rate will decrease due to these factors is stored. In the power generation amount 348, in the case of a mega solar G _M , the actual value of the amount of power generation received from the pilot instrument 2 is stored, and in the case of a small-scale solar G _S , the amount of power generation estimated in the estimation task 35 described later is stored. Note that, unlike the power source ID 341 to the influence information 347, this power generation amount 348 may be stored in a different database instead of power source information.

The estimation task 35 is a task _program that estimates the power generation amount of a small-scale solar power plant G _S that is installed in the surrounding area of a mega solar power plant G _M and has a similar power generation tendency, based on the power supply information of the small-scale solar power plant G _S and the power supply information and actual power generation amount of the mega solar power plant G _M , and is started periodically or at an arbitrary time. Here, in this embodiment, a case will be described in which the power generation amount of a plurality of small-scale solar power plants G _S in a wide-area distribution system is estimated based on the power generation amount of each mega solar power plant G _M with a single start. In contrast, it is also possible to specify the mega solar power plant G _M that is the estimation reference and the small-scale solar power plant G _S that is the estimation target, and to estimate only for a specific small-scale solar power plant G _S.

Specifically, as shown in Fig. 5, first, the power source information and actual power generation amount of the first mega solar power plant G _M are obtained from the power source information database 34 (step S1), and the power generation rate of this mega solar power plant G _M is calculated (step S2). That is, the power generation rate is calculated by dividing the power generation amount (power generation amount 348) by the power generation capacity (capacity 342) of this mega solar power plant _G M. At this time, the power generation rate is calculated for each measured power generation amount (for each measurement cycle).

Next, power supply information of the first small-scale solar power plant G _S , which is installed in the surrounding area of the mega solar power plant G _M and has a similar power generation tendency, is obtained from the power supply information database 34 (step S3). That is, the power supply information of the first small-scale solar power plant G _S , whose identification information of the mega solar power plant G _M is stored in the pilot 345, is obtained from the power supply information database 34.

Next, the amount of power generated by the small-scale solar G _S is estimated based on the power supply information of the small-scale solar G _{S and the power generation rate calculated in step S2 (step S4). That is, the power generation capacity of the small-scale solar G S is} multiplied by the power generation rate in step S2, and the amount of power generated is estimated according to a predetermined calculation formula taking into account the power factor and the like. At this time, the amount of power generated is estimated for each calculated power generation rate (for each measurement period). Furthermore, the amount of power generated is estimated based on the power generation influence information (influence information 347) of the small-scale solar G _S. For example, if the influence information 347 stores that the amount of power generated and the power generation rate decrease by 20% during a time period when sunlight is blocked by the surrounding environment, the amount of power generated during this time period is estimated by subtracting 20% from the amount of power generated based on the power generation rate in step S2.

In this embodiment, the extent to which the power generation amount and power generation rate will decrease is set and stored in advance in the impact information 347, but it may also be set in step S4 based on the deterioration state stored in the impact information 347. The power generation amount estimated in this way for each predetermined time (each measurement cycle) is stored in the power generation amount 348.

Next, if there is a next small-scale solar power plant G _S that is installed in the surrounding area of the same mega solar power plant G _M and has a similar power generation tendency (if "Y" in step S5), its power source information is obtained from the power source information database 34 (step S6). That is, the power source information of the next small-scale solar power plant G _S , whose identification information of the same mega solar power plant G _M is stored in the pilot 345, is obtained from the power source information database 34. Then, for this small-scale solar power plant G _S , the power generation amount is estimated and stored in the same manner as above (step S4).

In this way, when the estimation of the power generation amount for all small-scale solar power plants G _S installed in the surrounding area of this mega solar power plant G _M and having the same power generation tendency is completed (if "N" in step S5), it is determined whether there is a next mega solar power plant G _M that serves as an estimation reference. Then, if there is a next mega solar power plant G _M (if "Y" in step S7), its power source information and actual power generation amount are obtained from the power source information database 34 (step S8). Next, returning to step S2, the power generation rate of this mega solar power plant G _M is calculated in the same manner as above, and the power generation amount is estimated for all small-scale solar power plants G _S installed in the surrounding area and having the same power generation tendency. In this way, when the estimation of the power generation amount for all small-scale solar power plants G _S in each surrounding area is completed based on the actual power generation amount of all mega solar power plants G _M (if "N" in step S7), the process ends.

Next, we will explain the operation of the power generation estimation system 1 configured as above and the method for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source using the power generation estimation system 1.

First, the power source information of each photovoltaic power generation device is stored in the power source information database 34 (power source information storage step), and when the actual power generation amount of each mega solar power plant G _M is measured by each pilot meter 2, the power generation amount value is sequentially transmitted in real time to the estimation computer 3 (pilot power generation amount acquisition step). Next, when the estimation task 35 is started periodically or at any time, the power generation amount of small-scale solar power plants G _S installed in the surrounding area of each mega solar power plant G _M and having the same power generation tendency is estimated (power generation amount estimation step).

As described above, according to the power generation estimation system 1 and the power generation estimation method, the power generation amount of the small-scale solar power plant G _S , which is installed in the surrounding area of the mega solar power plant G _M and has the same power generation tendency, is estimated based on the power generation amount of the mega solar power plant G _M. In other words, for the small-scale solar power plant G _S , whose power generation amount is considered to fluctuate in the same manner (similarly) as the power generation amount of the mega solar power plant G _{M, the power generation amount is estimated based on the power generation capacity of the small-scale solar power plant G S and} the power generation capacity and actual power generation amount of the mega solar power plant G _M. For example, when the power generation amount of the mega solar power plant G _M is high, the power generation amount of the small-scale solar power plant G _S to be estimated is also high, and when the power generation amount of the mega solar power plant G _M is low, the power generation amount of the small-scale solar power plant G _S to be estimated is also low, and thus the power generation amount of the small-scale solar power plant G _S to be estimated is estimated.

For this reason, it becomes possible to properly estimate the power generation amount for small-scale solar power plants G _S , which have the same or similar power generation tendency (power generation behavior, power generation fluctuation) as the mega solar power plants G _M. Then, by grouping a plurality of photovoltaic power generation devices with the same power generation tendency and acquiring the power generation amount of the mega solar power plants G _M of each group, it becomes possible to properly estimate the power generation amount of each small-scale solar power plant G _S over a wide area. As a result of being able to properly estimate the power generation amount of each small-scale solar power plant G _S in this way, it becomes possible to properly estimate the actual load in the entire system, and it becomes possible to properly maintain the voltage of the power distribution system in accordance with the large-scale interconnection of photovoltaic power generation devices.

Furthermore, the actual amount of power generation only needs to be measured and obtained for the mega solar power plant G _M , and the amount of power generation can be estimated using only the amount of power generation from the mega solar power plant G _M and the power source information of each small-scale solar power plant G _S , making it possible to estimate the amount of power generation with a simple configuration.

In addition, since the power generation rate is calculated based on the power generation capacity and power generation amount of the mega solar G _M , and the power generation amount is estimated based on this power generation rate and the power generation capacity of the small-scale solar G _S , it becomes possible to estimate the power generation amount more appropriately and simply. In other words, since the small-scale solar G _{S ,} which has the same power generation tendency as the mega solar G _M , is considered to have the same power generation rate as the mega solar G M, it becomes possible to estimate the power generation amount more appropriately and simply by multiplying the power generation capacity of this small-scale solar G _S by the power generation rate of the mega solar G _M.

Furthermore, since the mega solar power plant G _M , which has a power generation capacity that is orders of magnitude larger than that of the small-scale solar power plant G _S , is used as the pilot distributed power source, it becomes possible to estimate the power generation amount more accurately. In other words, by using the large-scale mega solar power plant G _M with a large power generation capacity as the pilot distributed power source and measuring and acquiring the power generation amount of this mega solar power plant G _M , it becomes possible to more accurately acquire and understand the power generation tendency (power generation rate, etc.) of the mega solar power plant G _M , and as a result, it becomes possible to more accurately estimate the power generation amount of the small-scale solar power plant G _S that is the subject of estimation.

In addition, since the amount of power generation is estimated based on the power generation influence information that affects the amount of power generation of the small-scale solar G _S , it is possible to estimate the amount of power generation more accurately. In other words, since the amount of power generation is estimated based on factors that affect the amount of power generation, such as the degree of deterioration of the small-scale solar G _S and the surrounding environment, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generation more accurately.

Although the embodiment of the present invention has been described above, the specific configuration is not limited to the above embodiment, and even if there are design changes within the scope of the present invention, they are included in the present invention. For example, in the above embodiment, the case where the distributed power source is a solar power generation device has been described, but the distributed power source may be a wind power generation device, etc. For example, in the case of a wind power generation device, the power generation amount is estimated based on the power generation amount of a pilot wind power generation device for a wind power generation device that has the same wind speed and wind direction and the same power generation tendency. Also, although the case where a large-scale solar power generation device is used as a pilot distributed power source has been described, a small- or medium-scale solar power generation device may be used as a pilot distributed power source if the actual power generation amount can be obtained.

Furthermore, in the above embodiment, the identification information of the mega solar power plant G _M, which is the reference for estimating the power generation amount, is set and stored in advance in the pilot 345, but it may be set automatically and sequentially in the estimation task 35, etc. For example, when the estimation task 35 is started, areas that are considered to have similar sunshine conditions and similar power generation tendencies are grouped together based on past and recent weather information, etc. Then, for example, if areas R1 and R2 are grouped into the same group and a mega solar power plant G _M is installed in area R2, the small-scale solar power plants G _S in areas R1 and R2 are used as the estimation targets when estimating the power generation amount based on the mega solar power plant G _M in area R2.

Furthermore, when multiple mega solar power plants G _M are installed in the same district, the power generation amount of the other mega solar power plants G _M and each small-scale solar power plant G _S may be estimated based on the actual power generation amount of a certain mega solar power plant G _M. Furthermore, although the power generation amount of each small-scale solar power plant G _S is estimated individually, the total power generation amount of the multiple small-scale solar power plants G _S may be estimated together. For example, the power generation capacity of each small-scale solar power plant G _S installed in the same district may be integrated, and the total power generation amount may be estimated by multiplying this total power generation capacity by the power generation rate, etc.

The estimation computer 3 as described above may be configured by installing the following power generation estimation program in a general-purpose computer. That is, the program for estimating power generation amount of distributed power sources is characterized in that the computer functions as a power source information database 34 that stores power source information including the power generation capacity and installation location of each photovoltaic power generation device, and a power generation amount estimation means that estimates the power generation amount of a small-scale solar power plant G _S that is installed in the surrounding area of the pilot distributed power _source and has a similar power generation tendency, based on the power source information of the small-scale solar power plant G _S and the power _source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source.

1 Power generation amount estimation system 2 Pilot instrument (pilot power generation amount acquisition means)
3 Estimation computer 34 Power supply information database (power supply information storage means)
35 Estimation task (power generation amount estimation means)
_GM Mega Solar (Pilot Distributed Power Source)
_G Small-scale solar (distributed power source to be estimated)
NW Communication network

Claims (5)

a power source information storage means for storing power source information including a power generation capacity and an installation location of each distributed power source;
A pilot distributed power source is a distributed power source having a power generation capacity incomparably larger than that of other distributed power sources , and a pilot power generation amount acquisition means acquires the amount of power generated by the pilot distributed power source;
a power generation estimation means for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that is installed in the surrounding area of the pilot distributed power source and has a similar power generation tendency, based on power source information of the distributed power source and the power source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source;
A power generation amount estimation system for a distributed power source comprising: the power generation amount estimation means calculates a power generation rate based on a power generation capacity and a power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, and estimates the power generation amount based on the power generation rate and the power generation capacity of the distributed power source;
2. The system for estimating the amount of power generated by a distributed power source according to claim 1. The power source information includes information on an impact on the amount of power generated by the distributed power source as power generation impact information,
The power generation amount estimation means estimates the power generation amount based on the power generation influence information.
3. The system for estimating the amount of power generated by a distributed power source according to claim 1 or 2 . a power source information storage step of storing power source information including a power generation capacity and an installation location of each distributed power source;
a pilot power generation acquisition step of acquiring the amount of power generated by a pilot distributed power source, the pilot distributed power source being a distributed power source having a power generation capacity incomparably larger than that of other distributed power sources ;
a power generation estimation step of estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that is installed in a surrounding area of the pilot distributed power source and has a similar power generation tendency based on power source information of the distributed power source and the power source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source;
A method for estimating a power generation amount of a distributed power source, comprising: Computer,
a power source information storage means for storing power source information including a power generation capacity and an installation location of each distributed power source;
a power generation amount estimation means for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that is an order of magnitude larger than other distributed power sources as a pilot distributed power source, and for a distributed power source that is installed in the surrounding area of the pilot distributed power source and has a similar power generation tendency, based on power source information of the pilot distributed power source and power source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source;
A power generation amount estimation program for a distributed power source, comprising: