JP7638106B2 - Carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system and carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method - Google Patents

Description

This disclosure relates to a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system and a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method.

At power plants, electricity is generated by consuming fuel. The fuel is sold to the power generation company, which is the user of the power plant, based on a price set by the fuel supplier. For example, the coal fuel used in thermal power plants is priced on a cost basis, taking into account the costs of mining and transportation. Power generation companies consider the properties and price of each type of fuel, and then decide the type of fuel to purchase, taking into account the profitability of using it in a power plant.

The price of such fuel is generally set by the fuel supplier, and takes into account the fuel supplier's costs of mining, transportation, etc. On the other hand, when using the fuel in a power generation plant, transportation costs for transporting the purchased fuel to related facilities and costs for using the related facilities are also required. In response to this, Patent Document 1 discloses a coal evaluation and trading system for effectively selecting fuel to trade by evaluating the economics of fuel taking into account each cost incurred after purchase from the fuel supplier.

Patent No. 5219379

From the viewpoint of environmental consideration, the concept of carbon neutrality, which maintains the sum of _CO2 emissions and absorption, has been proposed, and carbon neutral fuels, including biomass fuels, have been used in recent years. The price of the carbon neutral fuel reflects the fuel price and the _CO2 credit price linked to the _CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, power generation companies have a need to use various carbon neutral fuels to hedge risks when operating power plants. However, it is difficult for power generation companies to judge the appropriateness of the carbon neutral fuel price set by the fuel supplier, taking into account the fluctuation of fuel prices due to the increased use of spot prices and the _CO2 credit price. In addition, it is not possible to determine whether the carbon neutral fuel can be appropriately used in the plant operated by the power generation company, and there is a problem that the decision to purchase the carbon neutral fuel cannot be made.

At least one embodiment of the present disclosure has been made in consideration of the above circumstances, and aims to provide a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system and a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method that can evaluate the economic value of carbon-neutral fuels.

In order to solve the above problems, the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure includes:
A carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system for evaluating carbon-neutral fuels used in a power generation plant, comprising:
a carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit for acquiring carbon-neutral fuel information including basic information on the carbon-neutral fuel and additional information on economic information on a user of the power plant;
A simulation unit for predicting a process value of the power plant when the carbon-neutral fuel is used;
a calculation unit for calculating an estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel based on the carbon-neutral fuel information and the prediction result of the process value by the simulation unit;
Equipped with.

In order to solve the above problems, the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure includes:
A carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method for evaluating carbon-neutral fuels used in a power generation plant, comprising:
obtaining carbon-neutral fuel information, the carbon-neutral fuel information including basic information about the carbon-neutral fuel and additional information about economic information about users of the power plant;
predicting a process value of the power plant when the carbon-neutral fuel is used;
calculating an estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel based on the carbon-neutral fuel information and the predicted result of the process value;
Equipped with.

At least one embodiment of the present disclosure provides a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system and a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method that can evaluate the economic value of carbon-neutral fuels.

FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing a usage environment of a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. 1 is an example of carbon-neutral fuel information provided by a fuel supplier to a power generation company. This is an example of a _CO2 negative business menu. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a fuel evaluation system according to an embodiment; 1 is an example of additional information added to carbon neutral fuel information. FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing an internal configuration of a simulation unit in FIG. 4 . FIG. 5 is a flow chart showing a schematic diagram of a calculation process in the calculation unit of FIG. 4 . 8 is an example of a calculation result obtained in FIG. 7. 1 is a flowchart illustrating a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method according to an embodiment. This is an example of the same type of carbon-neutral fuel information provided by a fuel supplier to a power generator. 11 is an example of a calculation result based on the carbon-neutral fuel information of FIG. 10.

Hereinafter, some embodiments of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the dimensions, materials, shapes, relative arrangements, etc. of components described as the embodiments or shown in the drawings are merely illustrative examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the present disclosure.
For example, expressions expressing relative or absolute configuration, such as "in a certain direction,""along a certain direction,""parallel,""orthogonal,""center,""concentric," or "coaxial," not only strictly express such a configuration, but also express a state in which there is a relative displacement with a tolerance or an angle or distance to the extent that the same function is obtained.
For example, expressions indicating that things are in an equal state, such as "same,""equal," and "homogeneous," not only indicate a state of strict equality, but also indicate a state in which there is a tolerance or a difference to the extent that the same function is obtained.
For example, expressions describing shapes such as a rectangular shape or a cylindrical shape do not only refer to rectangular shapes, cylindrical shapes, etc. in the strict geometric sense, but also refer to shapes that include uneven portions, chamfered portions, etc., to the extent that the same effect is obtained.
On the other hand, the expressions "comprise,""include,""have,""includes," or "have" of one element are not exclusive expressions excluding the presence of other elements.

First, referring to FIG. 1, the usage environment of the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure will be described. FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing the usage environment of the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 according to at least one embodiment of the present disclosure.

The power generation company 1 is a company that operates a power generation plant and is a user of the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100. The power generation company 1 purchases carbon-neutral fuel from the fuel supply company 2 and operates the power generation plant using the carbon-neutral fuel. The fuel supply company 2 provides the power generation company 1 with carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 regarding the prices and properties of the multiple types of carbon-neutral fuels that it handles.

The fuel supplier 2 provides the power generation company 1 with carbon-neutral fuel information 4 regarding the prices and properties of the multiple types of carbon-neutral fuels that it handles. Here, FIG. 2 shows an example of carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 that the fuel supplier 2 provides to the power generation company 1. In FIG. 2, the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 specifies the price per unit weight (CIF (freight and insurance included)) [¥/ton], CO2 negative project unit price [¥/ton], _carbon- neutral fuel unit price "¥/ton," and coal properties for each of the carbon-neutral coal fuels A' coal, B' coal, C' coal, D' coal, ... The coal properties include HHV (higher heating value) [kJ/kg], total moisture [%], proximate analysis (intrinsic moisture [%], volatile matter [%], fixed carbon [%], ash [%]), fuel ratio, and elemental analysis (C [%], H [%], O [%], N [%], S [%]).

The carbon-neutral fuel unit price is a price obtained by adding a _CO2 negative business unit price to the fuel unit price by the fuel supply company 2. The _CO2 negative business unit price is set by the fuel supply company 2 based on the _CO2 reduction effect, and there is a predetermined _CO2 negative business menu 2000 according to the price.

3 is an example of a _CO2 negative business menu 2000. In the _CO2 negative business menu 2000, there are investments in heat pump introduction support projects, energy saving projects, renewable energy introduction support projects, and forest cultivation and management projects as _CO2 negative businesses, and the _CO2 negative business unit price and the _CO2 reduction effect by the business are set individually by the fuel supply company 2 for each of them.

By obtaining such carbon-neutral fuel information 1004, the power generation business operator 1 uses it as a criterion for selecting the type of carbon-neutral fuel to purchase from the fuel supply business operator 2. Specifically, the power generation business operator 1 can determine which carbon-neutral fuel to purchase from the fuel supply business operator 2 by examining profitability based on the price information included in the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004, examining whether appropriate operation is possible at its own power generation plant based on the information on properties, and examining maximization of the contribution rate to _CO2 reduction.

The power generation company 1 has a need to use various types of carbon-neutral fuels to hedge risks when operating a power generation plant. However, with only the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 provided by the fuel supply company 2, for example, the appropriateness of the carbon-neutral fuel price offered by the fuel supply company 2 for an unknown carbon-neutral fuel is unclear, and it is not possible to determine whether the carbon-neutral fuel can be appropriately used in the power generation plant operated by the power generation company 1, which poses a problem that a decision to purchase the carbon-neutral fuel cannot be made. Such problems can be solved effectively by the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 described below.

The carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 is composed of, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), RAM (Random Access Memory), ROM (Read Only Memory), and computer-readable storage media. A series of processes for realizing various functions are stored in a storage medium in the form of a program, for example, and the CPU reads this program into the RAM and executes information processing and arithmetic processing to realize various functions. The program may be pre-installed in a ROM or other storage medium, provided in a state stored in a computer-readable storage medium, or distributed via wired or wireless communication means. Computer-readable storage media include magnetic disks, magneto-optical disks, CD-ROMs, DVD-ROMs, and semiconductor memories.

Figure 4 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 according to one embodiment. The carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 includes a carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit 1110, an additional information acquisition unit 120, an operating data acquisition unit 130, a simulation unit 140, a calculation unit 150, and an output unit 160. Note that the block diagram shown in Figure 4 shows the internal configuration of the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 as blocks for each function, corresponding to the description below, and these blocks may be subdivided or integrated with each other.

The carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit 1110 is configured to acquire the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 (see FIG. 2 or FIG. 5) described above. The carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 is digitized in advance, and the carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit 1110 acquires the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 as electronic information. Such carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 may be acquired in advance as electronic information from the fuel supply company 2, or may be non-electronic information, such as carbon-neutral fuel information 1004, provided by the fuel supply company 2 and digitized by the power generation company 1. The content of the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 may be the information provided by the fuel supply company 2 itself, or may be information processed by the power generation company 1 as necessary.

The additional information acquisition unit 120 is configured to acquire additional information 6 to be added to the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004. The additional information 6 includes customer economic information for evaluating the economics of carbon-neutral fuel, and includes, for example, the target power generation cost expected by the power generation company 1 for the carbon-neutral fuel, and the fixed costs and indirect operating costs for operating the power generation plant. The additional information 6 is input as appropriate via an input interface such as a keyboard, mouse, or touch panel.

Figure 5 is an example of additional information 6 added to carbon-neutral fuel information 1004. In Figure 5, the additional information 6 for the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 shown in Figure 2 includes the "target power generation cost [¥/kWh]" set for the carbon-neutral fuel used in the power plant, and the "fixed costs [¥/kWh]" and "indirect operating costs [¥/kWh]" required to operate the power plant.

The operation data acquisition unit 130 is configured to acquire operation data 8 related to the power plant. The operation data 8 is data related to the operational performance of the power plant, and is prepared by pre-accumulating it in a storage device such as a database. The operation data acquisition unit 130 acquires the operation data by accessing such a storage device. The operation data 8 may include, in addition to operation information related to the operational performance of the power plant (e.g., control terminal parameters, fuel property data, environmental data), economic evaluation information such as the unit price of auxiliary materials, the unit price of in-house power, and the unit price of ash processing. These operation data are used as teacher data when constructing a model used by the simulation unit 140 described later by machine learning.

The simulation unit 140 is configured to simulate the operating state of the power plant. Specifically, the simulation unit 140 has at least one model corresponding to the power plant, and by inputting predetermined input parameters to the model, at least one process value related to the power plant is obtained as a simulation result.

Here, the specific contents of the simulation process in the simulation unit 140 will be described. FIG. 6 is a block diagram showing the internal configuration of the simulation unit 140 in FIG. 4. The simulation unit 140 includes a model calculation unit 142, an optimization unit 144, an operating condition setting unit 146, and a process value output unit 148.

The model calculation unit 142 performs simulation calculations using at least one model that simulates a power plant. The model used by the model calculation unit 142 is constructed by machine learning using artificial intelligence (AI) with the operating data 8 acquired by the operating data acquisition unit 130 as teacher data. In addition, when a pre-constructed model is available, the model calculation unit 142 may update the model based on the operating data 8 acquired by the operating data acquisition unit 130.

The model calculation unit 142 may have multiple models prepared for use in the simulation calculation. In this case, the model calculation unit 142 can perform the simulation calculation based on one model selected from the multiple models. The multiple models may be constructed for multiple power plants, respectively, or may be constructed to simulate a case where a specific power plant is modified (improved, remodeled, etc.). In the latter case, it is possible to simulate the behavior of the power plant when the power plant is modified without manufacturing the actual machine. For example, when a power plant is modified or modified to use a certain type of carbon-neutral fuel, it is possible to evaluate whether the change is profitable or not from the estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel.

The model calculation unit 142 calculates process values as simulation results by providing specific input parameters to such a model. For example, by providing control terminal parameters, fuel property data, and environmental data as input parameters, process values such as NOx concentration and unburned fuel can be obtained as simulation results. The optimization unit 144 calculates evaluation values based on the process values thus obtained by the model calculation unit 142, and calculates optimal values for the input parameters based on the evaluation values.

The optimization unit 144 calculates the optimal value based on multiple process values obtained by the model calculation unit 142. Typically, the optimal value is calculated by adding multiple process values with a predetermined weighting. This weighting may be set for each operation mode of the power plant. In this embodiment, the types of operation modes that the power plant can implement include a controllability mode, an emission mode, a durability mode, an economical mode, and a balanced mode. The controllability mode is an operation mode that prioritizes the tolerance of response values such as burner tilt and damper opening provided in the power plant. The emission mode is an operation mode that prioritizes the concentration of NOx and CO emitted from the power plant. The durability mode is an operation mode that prioritizes metal temperature and steam temperature deviation. The economical mode is an operation mode that prioritizes the running cost of the power plant. The balanced mode is an operation mode that prioritizes the balance of the above four types of modes.

The operating condition setting unit 146 sets the operating conditions from the set of operating end parameters optimized by the optimization unit 144. By adopting the operating conditions set in this way in the actual power plant, it becomes possible to operate the power plant using the operating end parameters to obtain an optimal evaluation. In addition, the process value output unit 148 outputs a set of predicted values of the process values using the set of operating end parameters optimized by the optimization unit 144 as the simulation result of the simulation unit 140.

Returning now to FIG. 4, the calculation unit 150 is configured to evaluate carbon-neutral fuel based on the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 acquired by the carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit 1110, the additional information 6 acquired by the additional information acquisition unit 120, and the simulation results by the simulation unit 140. Here, FIG. 7 is a flow diagram that shows a schematic of the calculation process in the calculation unit 150 in FIG. 4, and FIG. 8 is an example of the calculation results obtained in FIG. 7.

The calculation unit 150 is provided with carbon-neutral fuel information 1004, additional information 6, and simulation results (a set of predicted process values) as input parameters, and the calculation results include "estimated unit price of carbon-neutral fuel," "gap from estimated unit price," "suitability for use determination," "other operational evaluation indexes," "ash disposal cost," "cost of ancillary materials and power," and "cost of ease of use."

The "estimated unit price of carbon-neutral fuel" is an estimated value of the unit price of carbon-neutral fuel per unit weight, and is calculated by subtracting various expenses from the target power generation cost of the power plant. In this embodiment, direct operating expenses, indirect operating expenses, fixed costs, and other various costs are set as the various expenses. In other words, the estimated unit price of carbon-neutral fuel is calculated, for example, by the following formula.
Estimated unit cost of carbon-neutral fuel = (target power generation cost – direct operating costs – indirect operating costs – fixed costs – other costs) x power generation efficiency (2)
Such an estimated unit price of carbon-neutral fuel can be a useful evaluation index indicating the value that carbon-neutral fuel should have in order for the user of the power plant to obtain the target power generation cost required to ensure profitability. In this embodiment, as shown in Fig. 8, the estimated unit price of carbon-neutral fuel is calculated for each type of operation mode of the power plant, and is obtained as an estimated price range including these. As a result, by comparing the estimated unit prices of carbon-neutral fuel corresponding to each operation mode, it is possible to select a carbon-neutral fuel suitable for the operation policy of the power plant.

The "gap with estimated unit price" indicates the gap (price difference) between the "estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel" and the "unit price of carbon-neutral fuel", which is the sales price actually offered by the fuel supply company 2. If the gap has a positive sign, it means that the estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel is higher than the offered price, and the power generation company 1 has received a highly profitable price offer from the fuel supply company 2. On the other hand, if the price gap has a negative sign, it means that the estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel is lower than the offered price, and the power generation company 1 has received a less profitable price offer from the fuel supply company 2. Such a gap can be a useful evaluation index for examining the appropriateness of the sales price offered to users of the power plant.

The "suitability for use determination" is the result of determining whether or not a type of carbon-neutral fuel is suitable for use in a power plant by satisfying various constraints (required standards for power plants) required for the operation of the power plant. For example, in a power plant, constraints are imposed on each component of the plant, such as burners, mills, and air heaters, as well as constraints related to environmental regulations for each component (NOx, etc.) contained in the exhaust gas from the power plant. In the "suitability for use determination," if all of these constraints are satisfied when each fuel is used in a power plant, the determination result is "OK (checked)." On the other hand, if at least one of these constraints is not satisfied, the determination result is "NG (no check)." By calculating such determination results, it is possible to perform a useful evaluation of fuels that can be used in power plants based on estimated prices.

"Other operation evaluation information" is judgment information of process values for stable plant operation, such as CO concentration, water wall metal temperature, main steam temperature, and main steam pressure, which must be within the allowable values (no alarms), and are calculated as process values by various models in the simulation unit 140, and judgment as to whether each is within the allowable value is also calculated as a process value. Examples of the above-mentioned "other costs" include "ash disposal cost,""accessory material and power cost," and "usability cost.""Ash disposal cost" is a cost calculated from the ash disposal unit price and the ash disposal amount, and the ash disposal amount is calculated as a process value by the ash disposal amount model in the simulation unit 140, and the ash disposal cost is calculated as the calculation result by multiplying it by the ash disposal unit price included in the additional information 6. The "accessory material/power cost" is an ammonia cost obtained by multiplying the amount of ammonia input to the denitrification equipment by the ammonia unit price, and an auxiliary power cost obtained by multiplying the auxiliary power such as the mill motor and fan power by the electricity unit price, and is calculated as a process value by the ammonia consumption amount model and various auxiliary power models of the simulation unit 140, and the cost is calculated as a calculation result by multiplying the process value by the unit price included in the additional information 6. The "ease of use cost" is calculated by the air heater differential pressure (and the number of maintenance operations calculated from that value) calculated as a process value by the air heater differential pressure model and the process value of the _CO2 emission amount by the _CO2 model, and the cost is calculated as a calculation result by multiplying each of the process values by the unit price included in the additional information 6.

The calculation results from the calculation unit 150 are output as output data by the output unit 160.

Next, we will explain the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method implemented by the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 having the above configuration. Figure 9 is a flowchart showing the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method according to one embodiment.

First, in the simulation unit 140 of the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100, the model to be used in the model calculation unit 142 is read (step S1). As described above, the model to be read in step S1 is one that has been constructed or updated in advance based on the driving data 8 acquired by the driving data acquisition unit 130.

Then, the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 reads the evaluation conditions (step S2). The evaluation conditions are the conditions for weighting the process values used when the optimization unit 144 calculates the optimal value. They are set for each of the five operating modes. In the "balanced mode," the weighting for all process values is set in a balanced manner, whereas in the "controllability mode," the weighting for process values related to controllability (burner tilt, damper opening, etc.) is high (sensitivity is increased). Similarly, in the "emission mode," the weighting is set to emphasize process values related to specific exhaust gas concentrations (NOx and CO concentrations), in the "durability mode," the weighting is set to emphasize process values related to durability (metal temperature, steam temperature deviation), and in the "economics mode," the weighting is set to emphasize process values related to the running costs of the power plant (combustion consumption).

Then, the carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit 1110 acquires the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 (step S3), and the additional information acquisition unit 120 acquires the additional information 6 (step S4). The additional information 6 includes information regarding the customer's economic situation.

Then, the simulation unit 140 determines a simulation result for the model loaded in step S1, based on the evaluation conditions loaded in step S2, corresponding to the carbon-neutral fuel information 1004 acquired in step S3 and the additional information 6 acquired in step S4 (step S5). In this embodiment, since there are five operating modes of the power plant, a simulation is performed for each operating mode.

Then, the calculation unit 150 performs an evaluation calculation based on the simulation results by the simulation unit 140 (step S6). In this embodiment, as described above with reference to FIG. 8, for each of the five operating modes, the "estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel," "gap from estimated unit price," "suitability for use," "other operating evaluation indexes," "ash processing cost," "cost of accessory materials and power," and "cost of ease of use" are calculated. The calculation results in the calculation unit 150 are output by the output unit 160 as output data 1007 (step S7).

The output data 1007 output in step S7 may be processed as necessary. For example, when the calculation results by the calculation unit 150 are output as numerical values, these numerical values may be ranked based on a predetermined criterion, and processed into output data 1007 in which a rank is displayed instead of a numerical value. This makes it easier to recognize the evaluation results for each carbon-neutral fuel according to its rank when referring to the output data 1007. The output data 1007 output in this manner may also be used as suitable material when negotiating the price of carbon-neutral fuel with a fuel supplier, for example.

As described above, according to the above embodiment, the estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel is calculated based on the carbon-neutral fuel information including the economic efficiency information on the user of the power plant and the predicted result of the process value of the power plant when the carbon-neutral fuel is used. This makes it possible to obtain an estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel unit price assumed when the carbon-neutral fuel is used in the power plant on the premise of the economic efficiency information included in the carbon-neutral fuel information. The estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel unit price obtained in this way can be used as a useful evaluation index for selecting materials to be used in the power plant, for example, by comparing it with the price offered by the fuel supplier, taking into account the validity of the offered price, _{profitability} , contribution rate to CO2 reduction, etc.

Next, referring to FIG. 10, an example of the concept of the _CO2 reduction contribution rate of the power generation company 1 will be shown. FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a case where the fuel supply company 2 has a range of _CO2 negative business unit prices for the same type of carbon neutral fuel to be handled, and the carbon neutral fuel unit price is set and sold. FIG. 11 shows an example of the result of calculation using such carbon neutral fuel. In this way, according to the fuel evaluation system of this embodiment, even if the fuel is the same type of carbon neutral fuel, the gap with the estimated price considering each _CO2 negative business unit price can be obtained. With the estimated price of the carbon neutral fuel obtained in this way, for example, by referring to the _CO2 negative business menu of the fuel supply company shown in FIG. 3, it can be used as a useful evaluation index for selecting materials to be used in a power generation plant, taking into consideration the appropriateness of the proposed price, profitability, _CO2 reduction contribution rate, etc.

In addition, the components in the above-described embodiments may be replaced with well-known components as appropriate without departing from the spirit of this disclosure, and the above-described embodiments may be combined as appropriate.

The contents described in each of the above embodiments can be understood, for example, as follows:

(1) A carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system according to one embodiment includes:
A carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system (e.g., the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 100 of the above embodiment) for evaluating a carbon-neutral fuel used in a power generation plant,
a carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit (e.g., the carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit 1110 in the above embodiment) for acquiring carbon-neutral fuel information including basic information on the carbon-neutral fuel and additional information on economic information on a user of the power plant;
A simulation unit (e.g., the simulation unit 140 in the above embodiment) for predicting a process value of the power plant when the carbon-neutral fuel is used;
A calculation unit (e.g., the calculation unit 150 in the above embodiment) for calculating an estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel based on the carbon-neutral fuel information and the prediction result of the process value by the simulation unit;
Equipped with.

According to the above aspect (1), an estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel is calculated based on carbon-neutral fuel information including economic information on the user of the power plant and the predicted results of the process values of the power plant when carbon-neutral fuel is used. This makes it possible to obtain an estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel assumed when carbon-neutral fuel is used in the power plant, assuming the economic information included in the carbon-neutral fuel information. The estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel obtained in this way can be used as a useful evaluation index for selecting materials to be used in the power plant, taking into account the appropriateness and profitability of the proposed price, for example, by comparing it with the price offered by a fuel supplier.

(2) In another embodiment, in the above embodiment (1),
The economic information includes a target power generation cost of the power plant and various expenses for operating the power plant,
The calculation unit is configured to calculate the estimated price by subtracting the overhead costs from the target power generation cost.

According to the above aspect (2), the estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel is obtained by subtracting various expenses from the target power generation cost of the power plant. Such an estimated price can be a useful evaluation index that indicates the value that carbon-neutral fuel should have in order for the user of the power plant to obtain the target power generation cost necessary to ensure profitability.

(3) In another aspect, in the above (1) or (2),
The calculation unit is configured to calculate a gap between a selling price of the carbon-neutral fuel and the estimated price.

According to the above aspect (3), the gap between the estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel obtained as described above and the sales price of carbon-neutral fuel offered, for example, by a fuel supplier, is calculated. Such a gap can be a useful evaluation index for examining the appropriateness of the sales price offered to users of power plants.

(4) In another aspect, in any one of the above (1) to (3),
The calculation unit is configured to determine whether or not the carbon-neutral fuel is suitable for use by comparing the prediction result of the process value by the simulation unit with a required standard for the power plant.

According to the above aspect (4), it is possible to obtain an estimated price for carbon-neutral fuel within the range that can be used in a power plant by satisfying the required standards for the power plant. This allows a useful evaluation based on the estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel that can be used in a power plant.

(5) In another aspect, in any one of the above (1) to (4),
The calculation unit calculates the estimated price for each type of operation mode of the power generation plant.

According to the above aspect (5), by calculating the estimated price for each type of operating mode, it is possible to select a carbon-neutral fuel that is suitable for the operating policy of the power plant.

(6) In another aspect, in any one of the above (1) to (5),
The simulation unit is
a model calculation unit (e.g., the model calculation unit 142 in the above embodiment) capable of calculating the process value by inputting an input parameter into a model simulating the power plant;
an optimization unit (e.g., the optimization unit 144 in the above embodiment) for calculating optimal values of the input parameters based on evaluation values based on the process values;
an optimal process value output unit (e.g., the process value output unit 148 in the above embodiment) for outputting the process value corresponding to the optimal value based on the model;
Equipped with.

According to the above aspect (6), the optimal value of the input parameter is obtained from an evaluation value based on a process value obtained by inputting the input parameter into the model. The simulation unit outputs the process value corresponding to the optimal value of the input parameter thus obtained as a simulation result. The estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel is calculated based on the process value thus obtained.

(7) In another embodiment, in the above embodiment (6),
The power generation plant further includes an operation data acquisition unit (e.g., the operation data acquisition unit 130 in the above embodiment) for acquiring operation data of the power generation plant (e.g., the operation data 8 in the above embodiment),
The simulation unit is configured to build or update the model by machine learning using the driving data as teacher data.

According to the above aspect (7), a model to be used in a simulation for calculating an estimated price can be suitably created by machine learning using driving data as training data.

(8) In another embodiment, in the above embodiment (6),
The model is configured to simulate predetermined changes being made to the power plant.

According to the above aspect (8), the estimated price is calculated using a model that corresponds to the case where a change is made to the power plant. As a result, for example, when a change such as modification is made to the power plant to use a certain type of carbon-neutral fuel, it is possible to evaluate the profitability of the change from the estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel.

(9) In another aspect, in any one of the above (1) to (8),
The calculation results by the calculation unit are ranked based on a criterion and output.

According to the above aspect (9), the calculation results can be ranked and processed, and can be used as suitable material for price negotiations, etc., for carbon-neutral fuels based on the evaluation results.

(10) A fuel evaluation method according to one aspect includes:
A carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method for evaluating carbon-neutral fuels used in a power generation plant, comprising:
obtaining carbon-neutral fuel information, the carbon-neutral fuel information including basic information about the carbon-neutral fuel and additional information about economic information about users of the power plant;
predicting a process value of the power plant when the carbon-neutral fuel is used;
calculating an estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel based on the carbon-neutral fuel information and the predicted result of the process value;
Equipped with.

According to the above aspect (10), an estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel is calculated based on carbon-neutral fuel information including economic information on the user of the power plant and the predicted results of the process values of the power plant when carbon-neutral fuel is used. This makes it possible to obtain an estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel assumed when carbon-neutral fuel is used in the power plant, assuming the economic information included in the carbon-neutral fuel information. The estimated price of carbon-neutral fuel obtained in this way can be used as a useful evaluation index for selecting materials to be used in the power plant, taking into account the appropriateness and profitability of the proposed price, for example, by comparing it with the price offered by a fuel supplier.

1 Power generation business operator 2 Fuel supply business operator 1004 Carbon-neutral fuel information 6 Additional information 1007 Output data when carbon-neutral fuel information is used 8 Operation data 100 Carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system 1110 Carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit 120 Additional information acquisition unit 130 Operation data acquisition unit 140 Simulation unit 142 Model calculation unit 144 Optimization unit 146 Operation condition setting unit 148 Process value output unit 150 Calculation unit 160 Output unit 2000 _CO2 negative business menu

Claims (9)

A carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system for evaluating carbon-neutral fuels used in a power generation plant, comprising:
a carbon-neutral fuel information acquisition unit for acquiring carbon-neutral fuel information including basic information on the carbon-neutral fuel and additional information on economic information on a user of the power plant;
A simulation unit for predicting a process value of the power plant when the carbon-neutral fuel is used;
a calculation unit for calculating an estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel based on the carbon-neutral fuel information and the prediction result of the process value by the simulation unit;
Equipped with
The economic information includes a target power generation cost of the power plant and various expenses for operating the power plant,
A carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system, wherein the calculation unit is configured to calculate an estimated unit price of the carbon-neutral fuel by subtracting the various expenses from the target power generation cost, and to calculate the estimated price based on the estimated unit price and the process value . The carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system according to claim 1 , wherein the calculation unit is configured to calculate a gap between a selling price of the carbon-neutral fuel and the estimated price. The carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the calculation unit is configured to determine the suitability of using the carbon-neutral fuel by comparing the prediction result of the process value by the simulation unit with the required standards for the power generation plant. The carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system according to claim 1 , wherein the calculation unit calculates the estimated price for each type of operation mode of the power plant. The simulation unit is
a model calculation unit capable of calculating the process value by inputting input parameters into a model that simulates the power plant;
an optimization unit for calculating optimal values of the input parameters based on evaluation values that are based on the process values;
an optimal process value output unit for outputting the process value corresponding to the optimal value based on the model;
The carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system according to claim 1 , comprising: An operation data acquisition unit for acquiring operation data of the power plant,
The carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system according to claim 5 , wherein the simulation unit is configured to construct or update the model by machine learning using the driving data as teacher data. The carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system of claim 5 , wherein the model is configured to simulate a predetermined change being made to the power plant. The carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system according to claim 1 , wherein the calculation results by the calculation unit are ranked based on a criterion and output. A carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method for evaluating a carbon-neutral fuel used in a power generation plant using a carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system, comprising:
obtaining carbon-neutral fuel information, the carbon-neutral fuel information including basic information about the carbon-neutral fuel and additional information about economic information about a user of the power plant, by the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system ;
A step of predicting a process value of the power plant when the carbon-neutral fuel is used by the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system ;
Calculating an estimated price of the carbon-neutral fuel based on the carbon-neutral fuel information and the predicted result of the process value by the carbon-neutral fuel evaluation system ;
Equipped with
The economic information includes a target power generation cost of the power plant and various expenses for operating the power plant,
A carbon-neutral fuel evaluation method, in which the step of calculating the estimated price includes calculating an estimated unit price of the carbon-neutral fuel by subtracting the various expenses from the target power generation cost, and calculating the estimated price based on the estimated unit price and the process value .

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