JP7638512B2 - Power consumption estimation method, computer program, and information processing device - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a power consumption estimation method, a computer program, and an information processing device for estimating the power consumption of each electrical device installed in a house.

Smart meters that measure the amount of electricity consumed in houses and other buildings are becoming more common. Conventionally, meter readers would visually check the meter readings, but smart meters measure electricity automatically at regular intervals and automatically transmit the results to the power company's server device, etc., eliminating the need for meter readers. In addition, while meter readers only do this about once a month, smart meters can transmit measurement results, for example, once every 30 minutes, making it possible to manage the most recent measurement results. However, the amount of electricity consumed by smart meters is the overall amount of electricity consumed by the entire house and other buildings at the power receiving point for the purpose of charging the power company according to the amount of electricity consumed by the consumer (user), and it is not possible to know the individual amounts of electricity consumed by multiple electrical appliances installed inside the house and other buildings.

Patent Document 1 proposes an information processing method for device separation that determines the power consumption of each of multiple devices in a home or the like. In this information processing method, a control device operates devices in the home to recognize the operating state of the devices, and transmits a device label representing the device and an operating state label representing the operating state of the device to an information processing device. The information processing device obtains the device label and operating state label from the control device, identifies pattern information representing the current consumption of the device's current operating state based on possibility information indicating the possibility that the device is consuming the current consumption represented by the pattern information, and associates the device label and operating state label with this pattern information. It is expected that this technology can be applied to device separation that separates the current consumption of each device.

International Publication No. 2016/013411

However, the information processing method described in Patent Document 1 requires separate dedicated equipment such as a control device that operates household appliances and a current sensor that detects household current consumption and transmits it to a server device, etc. In order to identify the appliance being used, the current sensor needs to detect and transmit current consumption frequently enough to grasp the waveform of the appliance's specific current consumption, so the power consumption amount of a smart meter, which transmits the amount of power consumption about once every 30 minutes, cannot be used. For these reasons, in order to implement the information processing method described in Patent Document 1, it is necessary to install a dedicated sensor and collect information using the sensor, which poses the problem of requiring a considerable amount of time and cost.

The present invention has been made in consideration of the above circumstances, and its purpose is to provide a power consumption estimation method, computer program, and information processing device that are expected to facilitate the introduction of a system that estimates the amount of power consumed by each electrical device in a home.

In one embodiment of the power consumption estimation method, an information processing device acquires the total power consumption measured by a smart meter, acquires the basic power consumption of each electrical device connected to the smart meter, estimates whether each electrical device is in use, and estimates the power consumption of each electrical device based on the total power consumption measured by the smart meter, the basic power consumption of each electrical device, and whether each electrical device is in use.

In one embodiment, it is expected that it will be easier to introduce a system that estimates the amount of power consumed by each electrical device in a home.

1 is a schematic diagram for explaining an overview of an information processing system according to an embodiment of the present invention; 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power consumption estimation server device according to the present embodiment. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a user terminal device according to the present embodiment. FIG. FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a basic power consumption DB. FIG. 13 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a second basic power consumption DB; FIG. 13 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a scatter diagram. 10 is a flowchart showing the procedure of a basic power consumption determination process performed by the power consumption estimation server device according to the present embodiment. 5 is a flowchart showing a procedure of a standby power amount estimation process performed by the power consumption amount estimation server device according to the present embodiment. FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing an example of the configuration of a house information DB; 5 is a flowchart showing the procedure of a power consumption amount estimation process performed by the power consumption amount estimation server device according to the present embodiment. 10 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a display of an estimated power consumption amount by a user terminal device according to the present embodiment. FIG. 10 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a display of an estimated power consumption amount by a user terminal device according to the present embodiment. FIG. 13 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a display of a feedback information reception screen of a user terminal device 5 according to embodiment 2. FIG.

Specific examples of information processing systems according to embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to these examples, but is intended to include all modifications within the scope of the claims and meaning equivalent to the claims.

<System Overview>
1 is a schematic diagram for explaining an overview of an information processing system according to the present embodiment. The information processing system according to the present embodiment is a system that performs a process of estimating the amount of power consumption of each of a plurality of electrical appliances installed in a house 1, such as a general home, based on the amount of power consumption measured by a smart meter 2 installed in the house 1. Note that in the present embodiment, the house 1, such as a general home, is the subject of the power consumption estimation, but the present invention is not limited thereto, and the power consumption of each electrical appliance may be estimated for various facilities, such as a store, a company, a school, or a factory.

The smart meter 2 installed in the house 1 is a device that measures the total amount of power consumed by multiple electrical appliances installed in the house 1. The amount of power consumption measured by the smart meter 2 is not the amount of power consumption for each electrical appliance installed in the house 1, but the total amount of power consumption consumed by multiple (all) electrical appliances installed in the house 1. The smart meter 2 also has a function for performing wired or wireless communication, and transmits the measurement result of the total amount of power consumption in the house 1 to, for example, a power company server device 3 managed and operated by a power company. The transmission of the measurement result by the smart meter 2 is repeated at a predetermined period (for example, once every 30 minutes). For example, the smart meter 2 measures the integrated power value of the amount of power consumption every 30 minutes every 30 minutes and transmits it to the power company server device 3, and the power company server device 3 stores and accumulates the measurement result every 30 minutes received from the smart meter 2 in a database. The power company server device 3 can use the calculated values of the power consumption every 30 minutes to calculate the total power consumption in the house 1 every 30 minutes, every day, every month, etc.

The information processing system according to this embodiment includes a power consumption estimation server device 4 that performs processing to estimate the individual power consumption of multiple electrical appliances installed in the house 1 from the total power consumption of the house 1 measured by the smart meter 2. The power consumption estimation server device 4 may be, for example, a device managed and operated by a power company, or may be, for example, a device managed and operated by a company or organization other than the power company. When the power consumption estimation server device 4 is managed and operated by a power company, the power company server device 3 and the power consumption estimation server device 4 may be realized as a single server device. Furthermore, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may be connected to a system including multiple power company server devices 3 or multiple smart meters 2.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 acquires information on the total power consumption of the house 1 that the power company server device 3 acquires from the smart meter 2 and stores in a database or the like. The power consumption estimation server device 4 acquires information from the power company server device 3 repeatedly at a predetermined cycle. The cycle for acquiring information by the power consumption estimation server device 4 may be, for example, the same as the cycle at which the smart meter 2 transmits the measurement results (e.g., once every 30 minutes), or may be a cycle longer than this cycle (e.g., once an hour or once a day). Alternatively, instead of acquiring information periodically from the power company server device 3, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may aperiodically acquire information required for calculations in response to a request from a user, for example.

The electric power company server device 3 also acquires and stores the measurement results of the total power consumption for multiple houses 1 from multiple smart meters 2. The power consumption estimation server device 4 does not need to acquire the measurement results for all houses 1 stored by the electric power company server device 3, but only needs to acquire the measurement results for at least the houses 1 of users who use the services provided by the information processing system according to this embodiment.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 obtains information on the total power consumption in the house 1 on the previous day from the power company server device 3, for example, once a day. The power consumption estimation server device 4 pre-stores information on multiple electrical appliances installed in the house 1, and estimates the total power consumption of each electrical appliance in the house 1 for the entire day from the total power consumption obtained from the power company server device 3. Furthermore, instead of pre-stored information on multiple electrical appliances installed in the house 1, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may estimate how many electrical appliances of what category are being used from the total power consumption of the smart meter 2 of the house 1 at a certain time interval (for example, 30 minutes). The power consumption estimation server device 4 transmits information on the estimated power consumption of each electrical appliance to a user terminal device 5 carried by a user such as a resident of the house 1. Based on the information received from the power consumption estimation server device 4, the user terminal device 5 displays the estimated value of the power consumption of each electrical appliance installed in the house 1, or the percentage of the power consumption of each electrical appliance relative to the total power consumption, and notifies the user.

Fig. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment. The power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment is configured to include a processing unit (processor) 41, a memory unit (storage) 42, and a communication unit (transceiver) 43. Note that in this embodiment, the processing is described as being performed by one power consumption estimation server device 4, but the processing may be distributed among multiple server devices.

The processing unit 41 is configured using an arithmetic processing device such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), an MPU (Micro-Processing Unit) or a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), a ROM (Read Only Memory), and a RAM (Random Access Memory). The processing unit 41 reads and executes the server program 42a stored in the memory unit 42 to perform various processes such as obtaining the total power consumption of the house 1 measured by the smart meter 2 from the power company server device 3, estimating whether each electrical device installed in the house 1 is in use, and estimating the power consumption of each electrical device.

The storage unit 42 is configured using a large-capacity storage device such as a hard disk. The storage unit 42 stores various programs executed by the processing unit 41 and various data required for the processing of the processing unit 41. In this embodiment, the storage unit 42 stores the server program 42a executed by the processing unit 41, and is provided with a basic power consumption DB (database) 42b that stores various information, a house information DB 42c that stores information about electrical appliances in the house 1, and a condition information DB 42d, etc.

In this embodiment, the server program 42a is provided in a form recorded on a recording medium 99 such as an external or internal semiconductor memory card, an optical disk, or a magnetic disk, and the power consumption estimation server device 4 reads the server program 42a from the recording medium 99 and stores it in the storage unit 42. However, the server program 42a may be written in the storage unit 42, for example, during the manufacturing stage of the power consumption estimation server device 4. In addition, for example, the server program 42a may be distributed by another remote server device or the like, and the power consumption estimation server device 4 may acquire the server program 42a through communication. For example, the server program 42a may be read from the recording medium 99 by a writing device and written to the storage unit 42 of the power consumption estimation server device 4. The server program 42a may be provided in a form distributed via a network, or may be provided in a form recorded on the recording medium 99.

The basic power consumption DB 42b is a database that stores basic power consumption values of electrical appliances manufactured and sold so far, such as power consumption values published by electrical appliance manufacturers or power consumption values of electrical appliances measured by companies that provide services of the information processing system according to the present embodiment. The house information DB 42c is a database that stores information about the house 1 that is the target of this service. The information about the house 1 may include various information such as information input by the user as information about electrical appliances installed in the house 1 or information about electrical appliances estimated by the processing unit 41 to be connected in the house 1, identification information of the smart meter 2 installed in the house 1, information about the structure of the house 1, and identification information of the user or the user terminal device 5. The condition information DB 42d is a database that stores conditions for estimating whether an electrical appliance installed in the house 1 has been used (whether it was in an on or off state). Details of these databases will be described later.

The communication unit 43 communicates with various devices via a network N including the Internet, a mobile phone communication network, a wireless LAN (Local Area Network), etc. In this embodiment, the communication unit 43 communicates between one or more power company server devices 3 and one or more user terminal devices 5 via the network N. The communication unit 43 transmits data provided by the processing unit 41 to other devices, and provides data received from other devices to the processing unit 41.

The storage unit 42 may be an external storage device connected to the power consumption estimation server device 4. The power consumption estimation server device 4 may be a multi-computer including multiple computers, or may be a virtual machine virtually constructed by software. The power consumption estimation server device 4 is not limited to the above configuration, and may include, for example, a reading unit that reads information stored in a portable storage medium, an input unit that accepts operation input, or a display unit that displays images.

In addition, in the processing unit 41 of the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment, a total power consumption acquisition unit 41a, an information acquisition unit 41b, a standby power consumption estimation unit 41c, a usage estimation unit 41d, a power consumption estimation unit 41e, and the like are realized as software functional units by the processing unit 41 reading and executing a server program 42a stored in a memory unit 42. Note that these functional units are functional units related to the process of estimating the power consumption of electrical appliances installed in the house 1, and illustrations and descriptions of other functional units are omitted.

The total power consumption acquisition unit 41a performs a process of acquiring information on the total power consumption of the house 1 stored and accumulated in the power company server device 3 by communicating with one or more power company server devices 3 via the network N using the communication unit 43. In this embodiment, for example, the smart meter 2 transmits the measurement results of the total power consumption of the house 1 to the power company server device 3 once every 30 minutes, and the power consumption estimation server device 4 acquires the total power consumption information from the power company server device 3 once a day. Therefore, the total power consumption acquisition unit 41a acquires the measurement values of the total power consumption for 24 hours (i.e., 48 30-minute measurement values) for one house 1 once a day. However, the above-mentioned cycle for acquiring information is an example and is not limited to this.

The information acquisition unit 41b performs a process of acquiring various information necessary for the process. For example, the information acquisition unit 41b conducts a questionnaire or the like for a user who is about to start using the service according to the present embodiment to input information about electrical devices installed in the house 1, acquires information about the electrical devices input by the user, and stores the information in the house information DB 42c of the storage unit 42. For example, the information acquisition unit 41b acquires the corresponding basic power consumption for each electrical device installed in the house 1 by referring to the basic power consumption DB 42b, and stores the basic power consumption of each electrical device in the house information DB 42c. Furthermore, the information acquisition unit 41b may estimate the electrical devices installed in the house 1 based on the total power consumption acquired by the total power consumption acquisition unit 41a, and store the estimated information in the house information DB 42c.

In this embodiment, the standby power consumption refers to the amount of power consumed by a device that consumes very little power when not watching a television, so that it can be controlled from a device such as a remote control, and other devices that consume power 24 hours a day, such as a refrigerator, and other devices that consume power 24 hours a day without any time off. The standby power consumption estimation unit 41c performs a process to estimate the amount of standby power consumed by multiple electrical devices installed in the house 1. The standby power consumption estimation unit 41c acquires information on the total power consumption for a predetermined period (for example, one week or one month) in the house 1 from the power company server device 3, for example. Based on the acquired information, the standby power consumption estimation unit 41c compares the total power consumption for every 30 minutes on each day of the predetermined period and extracts the smallest total power consumption on each day. The standby power consumption estimation unit 41c estimates the most frequent total power consumption as the standby power consumption of the house 1 from the minimum total power consumption for the extracted multiple days. Note that the method of estimating the standby power consumption by the standby power consumption estimation unit 41c is not limited to the above, and various methods may be used to estimate the standby power consumption. The standby power amount estimation unit 41c may take the average of the minimum total power consumption amounts extracted over multiple days as the standby power amount, or the minimum value as the standby power amount. In this embodiment, the standby power amount estimated by the standby power amount estimation unit 41c is the total standby power amount of multiple electrical devices installed in the house 1, and is the standby power amount for 30 minutes. When the standby power amount for one day is required, the standby power amount for 24 hours is calculated by multiplying the estimated standby power amount for 30 minutes by 48.

The usage estimation unit 41d performs processing to estimate whether each electrical appliance provided in the house 1 has been used, based on the information on the total power consumption of the house 1 acquired by the total power consumption acquisition unit 41a, the information on the electrical appliances of the house 1 acquired by the information acquisition unit 41b and the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance, the standby power consumption of the house 1 estimated by the standby power consumption estimation unit 41c, and the judgment conditions for each electrical appliance stored in the condition information DB 42d of the storage unit 42. In this embodiment, the usage estimation unit 41d estimates whether each electrical appliance has been used every 30 minutes, and estimates the time each electrical appliance has been used in a day. Details of the estimation processing by the usage estimation unit 41d will be described later.

The power consumption estimation unit 41e performs a process of estimating the daily power consumption of each electrical device installed in the house 1. The power consumption estimation unit 41e can calculate the daily power consumption of each electrical device based on the basic power consumption of each electrical device stored in the basic power consumption DB 42b and the time during which each electrical device was used estimated by the usage estimation unit 41d. The power consumption estimation unit 41e transmits information on the estimated power consumption of each electrical device to the user terminal device 5 of the user associated with the house 1, and causes the user terminal device 5 to display information on the power consumption of the electrical devices in the house 1.

Figure 3 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a user terminal device 5 according to this embodiment. The user terminal device 5 according to this embodiment is configured to include a processing unit (processor) 51, a memory unit (storage) 52, a communication unit (transceiver) 53, a display unit (display) 54, and an operation unit 55. The user terminal device 5 can be configured using an information processing device such as a general-purpose personal computer, a smartphone, or a tablet terminal device.

The processing unit 51 is configured using an arithmetic processing device such as a CPU or an MPU, a ROM, a RAM, etc. The processing unit 51 reads and executes a program 52a stored in the storage unit 52 to perform various processes such as accepting information input by a user and displaying information related to the power consumption of an electrical device.

The storage unit 52 is configured using, for example, a magnetic storage device such as a hard disk or a non-volatile memory element such as a flash memory. The storage unit 52 stores various programs executed by the processing unit 51 and various data necessary for the processing of the processing unit 51. In this embodiment, the storage unit 52 stores the program 52a executed by the processing unit 51. In this embodiment, the program 52a is distributed by a remote server device or the like, and the user terminal device 5 acquires it by communication and stores it in the storage unit 52. However, the program 52a may be written to the storage unit 52, for example, during the manufacturing stage of the user terminal device 5. For example, the program 52a may be read by the user terminal device 5 from the program 52a recorded on a recording medium 98 such as a memory card or an optical disk and stored in the storage unit 52. For example, the program 52a may be read by a writing device from the program 52a recorded on the recording medium 98 and written to the storage unit 52 of the user terminal device 5. The program 52a may be provided in the form of distribution via a network, or in the form of being recorded on the recording medium 98.

The communication unit 53 communicates with various devices via a network N including the Internet, a mobile phone communication network, a wireless LAN, and the like. In this embodiment, the communication unit 53 communicates with the power consumption estimation server device 4 via the network N. The communication unit 53 transmits data provided by the processing unit 51 to other devices, and provides data received from other devices to the processing unit 51.

The display unit 54 is configured using a liquid crystal display or the like, and displays various images, characters, etc. based on the processing of the processing unit 51.

The operation unit 55 accepts user operations and notifies the processing unit 51 of the accepted operations. For example, the operation unit 55 accepts user operations through an input device such as a mechanical button or a touch panel provided on the surface of the display unit 54. For example, the operation unit 55 may also be an input device such as a mouse and a keyboard, and these input devices may be configured to be removable from the user terminal device 5.

In addition, in the user terminal device 5 according to this embodiment, the processing unit 51 reads and executes the program 52a stored in the storage unit 52, whereby the display processing unit 51a, the input receiving unit 51b, and the like are realized in the processing unit 51 as software functional units. Note that the program 52a may be a program dedicated to the information processing system according to this embodiment, or may be a general-purpose program such as an Internet browser or a web browser.

The display processing unit 51a performs processing to display various characters, images, etc. on the display unit 54. In this embodiment, the display processing unit 51a displays various screens, such as a screen for accepting input of information about electrical appliances installed in the house 1 by the user, and a screen notifying the estimated power consumption of each electrical appliance in the house 1.

The input reception unit 51b receives input of various information by receiving user operations on the operation unit 55. The input reception unit 51b receives input of information on electrical appliances installed in the house 1 from the user, and transmits the received information to the power consumption estimation server device 4.

<Basic power consumption determination process>
In the information processing system according to the present embodiment, before starting to provide the service to the user, it is necessary to collect information on the power consumption of the electrical appliances that may be installed in the house 1 and create the basic power consumption DB 42b. The company providing the service, the company managing and operating the power consumption estimation server device 4, etc., collect information such as power consumption, manufacturer, model number, and year of sale for as many electrical appliances as possible that have already been manufactured and sold. The information may be collected from documents such as catalogs or instruction manuals for the electrical appliances, or may be collected based on electronic information such as the homepage of the electrical appliance or the homepage of a mass retailer. The information may be collected automatically by the power consumption estimation server device 4, or may be collected manually by the company managing and operating the device. In addition to the above-mentioned information on power consumption, the collected information on the electrical appliances preferably includes information that characterizes the electrical appliances, such as the screen size (inches) for a television, the number of tatami mats that can be accommodated for an air conditioner, and the capacity for a refrigerator.

4 is a schematic diagram showing an example of the basic power consumption DB 42b. The basic power consumption DB 42b according to the present embodiment is a database in which information such as "electrical equipment (type)", "manufacturer (manufacturing company)", "model number", "manufacturing year", "basic power consumption" and "unit" are stored in association with each other. "Electrical equipment" is information indicating the type of electrical equipment, such as an air conditioner, a television (television receiver), a lighting fixture, or a refrigerator. "Manufacturer" is information on the company that manufactured the electrical equipment, and is abbreviated as Company A, Company B, etc. in this figure. "Model number" is an identification number given to identify the type (model) of the electrical equipment. "Manufacturing year" is information indicating the year or period in which the electrical equipment was manufactured. "Basic power consumption" is the power consumption of the electrical equipment, and is, for example, the power consumption listed as specifications in a catalog, or a numerical value such as the power consumption measured by a company that provides this service. "Unit" is the unit of the numerical value stored as the basic power consumption, and for example, units such as "W (watt)" or "kW (kilowatt)" are stored. The "unit" may also be a unit such as [kWh/year], as in the refrigerator shown in the figure, that is, a unit indicating the amount of power consumed over a specified period of time.

The power consumption estimation server device 4, which has the basic power consumption DB 42b shown in the figure in the memory unit 42, can accurately determine the basic power consumption of an electrical appliance in the house 1 by acquiring information such as the manufacturer and model number of the electrical appliance from the user. However, there may be cases where the user does not know detailed information such as the model number of the electrical appliance. Therefore, in the information processing system according to this embodiment, the power consumption estimation server device 4 has a second basic power consumption DB 42b for determining the basic power consumption of an electrical appliance for which the user does not know detailed information such as the model number.

Figure 5 is a schematic diagram showing an example of the second basic power consumption DB 42b. The second basic power consumption DB 42b in this embodiment is a database in which information such as "electrical equipment", "information 1", "information 2", "basic power consumption" and "unit" is stored in association with each other. Of these, "electrical equipment", "basic power consumption" and "unit" are the same as the information stored in the basic power consumption DB 42b shown in Figure 4. "Electrical equipment" is information indicating the type of electrical equipment, such as a refrigerator, television, lighting equipment, and air conditioner. "Basic power consumption" is a numerical value indicating the power consumption of the electrical equipment. "Unit" is the unit of the numerical value stored as basic power consumption.

The "information 1" and "information 2" in the second basic power consumption DB 42b are information that characterizes an electrical appliance, and predetermined information is stored for each type of electrical appliance. In this example, the two pieces of information, "information 1" and "information 2", are stored in the second basic power consumption DB 42b, but the number of pieces of information may be one or more than two. For example, for a refrigerator, which is an "electrical appliance", "information 1" is not used, and "information 2" stores information about the range of years the refrigerator was manufactured. For example, for a television, which is an "electrical appliance", "information 1" stores information about whether the television is a plasma or liquid crystal type, and "information 2" stores information about the range of screen sizes of the television. For example, for a lighting fixture, which is an "electrical appliance", "information 1" stores information about whether the lighting fixture is a ceiling light, fluorescent light (ring), incandescent light, or LED (ball), and "information 2" stores information about the date of manufacture, area (number of tatami mats), wattage, etc. For example, for an air conditioner, which is an "electrical device," "information 1" stores information about the combination of whether the house 1 in which the air conditioner will be installed is made of wood or reinforced concrete, and whether the air conditioner will be used for cooling or heating, and "information 2" stores information about the range of room sizes that the air conditioner can accommodate.

The company providing this service creates the second basic power consumption DB 42b shown in FIG. 5 in advance and stores it in the memory unit 42 of the power consumption estimation server device 4. The second basic power consumption DB 42b can be created, for example, by the following procedure. Note that the process of creating the basic power consumption DB 42b may be performed automatically by a device such as the power consumption estimation server device 4, or may be performed manually by the service provider company, etc.

The service provider creates a regression model based on the information on the electrical appliances collected to create the basic power consumption DB 42b shown in FIG. 4, and calculates the power consumption using this regression model. The service provider creates a linear regression model using the power consumption as the objective variable and various information on the electrical appliance as the explanatory variable. For example, in the case of an air conditioner, the service provider creates a linear regression model that predicts the power consumption using the cooling capacity, heating capacity, or number of tatami mats that can be used. After that, the service provider selects an explanatory variable that has a large influence on the change in power consumption based on the created linear regression model. In the linear regression model, when a standardized variable is used, a variable with a large regression coefficient is selected as an explanatory variable that has a large influence. As a result, for example, information such as the number of tatami mats that can be used for an air conditioner and the year of manufacture for a refrigerator can be selected as an explanatory variable. Note that the selection of information on electrical appliances that has a large influence on the change in power consumption is not limited to the above method using a linear regression model, and any model that clarifies the extent to which the explanatory variable affects the objective variable can be used. For example, various methods such as a method using a random forest can be adopted.

Then, the service provider etc. creates clusters using the objective variable and the selected explanatory variables. First, the service provider etc. creates a scatter plot with, for example, the power consumption corresponding to the objective variable on the vertical axis and the information corresponding to the selected explanatory variables on the horizontal axis. FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a scatter plot. The scatter plot shown in the figure is an example in which the correspondence between the model year (manufacturing year) of a refrigerator and the power consumption is mapped onto the scatter plot based on information about a refrigerator, which is one of the electrical appliances. The service provider etc. classifies the refrigerators into multiple clusters based on the model year or range of models based on the bias of the many points mapped onto the scatter plot. In the example shown in FIG. 6, the refrigerators are classified into three clusters, clusters 1 to 3. Note that the method of creating clusters is not limited to the above-mentioned arbitrary determination method based on the bias of the points, and various methods may be adopted, such as a method of creating clusters by unsupervised learning using the power consumption and the selected variables.

The clusters classified in this way correspond to the electrical appliances in one row shown in the second basic power consumption DB 42b shown in FIG. 5. That is, in the second basic power consumption DB 42b shown in FIG. 5, refrigerators are classified into two clusters based on the year of manufacture, televisions are classified into four clusters based on their type and size, lighting fixtures are classified into six clusters, and air conditioners are classified into eight clusters. The service provider classifies each electrical appliance into clusters in the same manner, calculates the average value of power consumption within the cluster, and sets the calculated average value as the basic power consumption of this class. The service provider creates the second basic power consumption DB 42b by associating information corresponding to the explanatory variables used to classify the clusters with the basic power consumption of the cluster, and stores the information in advance in the storage unit 42 of the power consumption estimation server device 4.

The power consumption estimation server device 4, which has the second basic power consumption DB 42b shown in FIG. 5 in the memory unit 42, can obtain information from the user, such as the number of tatami mats that the device corresponds to in the case of an air conditioner, even if the user does not know detailed information about the electrical appliances in the house 1, and can determine which of the air conditioner clusters the obtained information corresponds to and obtain the basic power consumption from the second basic power consumption DB 42b.

In the information processing system according to the present embodiment, before starting to provide a service to a user, the power consumption estimation server device 4 inquires the user about information on a plurality of electrical appliances installed in the house 1 for which the power consumption is to be estimated. The user uses the user terminal device 5 to input as much detailed information as possible about the electrical appliances in the house 1, such as model numbers, and inputs as much information as possible about electrical appliances for which detailed information is unknown. The power consumption estimation server device 4, which has acquired information about the electrical appliances input by the user from the user terminal device 5, acquires basic power consumption from the basic power consumption DB 42b shown in FIG. 4 for electrical appliances for which detailed information such as model numbers has been acquired. For electrical appliances for which detailed information cannot be acquired, the power consumption estimation server device 4 determines the corresponding cluster from the second basic power consumption DB 42b shown in FIG. 5, and acquires the basic power consumption associated with this cluster.

Figure 7 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the basic power consumption determination process performed by the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment. The information acquisition unit 41b of the processing unit 41 of the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment transmits a questionnaire about the electrical appliances installed in the house 1 to the user terminal device 5 of the user who starts using the service (step S1). The user terminal device 5 that receives this queries the user for information such as the model number or manufacturing year of the electrical appliance, accepts input of the user's response to the query, and transmits the accepted response to the power consumption estimation server device 4. The information acquisition unit 41b of the power consumption estimation server device 4 receives the response to the questionnaire from the user terminal device 5 (step S2).

Next, the information acquisition unit 41b selects one electrical device from among the multiple electrical devices that are determined to be installed in the house 1 based on the response (step S3). The information acquisition unit 41b determines whether or not the model number of the selected electrical device has been obtained (step S4). If the model number has been obtained (S4: YES), the information acquisition unit 41b refers to the basic power consumption DB 42b of the storage unit 42 to acquire the basic power consumption corresponding to this model number (step S5), and proceeds to step S8.

If the model number has not been obtained (S4: NO), the information acquisition unit 41b performs cluster classification to determine which of a plurality of clusters predefined for this type of electrical device the selected electrical device corresponds to (step S6). The information acquisition unit 41b refers to the basic power consumption DB 42b in the storage unit 42 to acquire the basic power consumption corresponding to the cluster classified in step S6 (step S7), and proceeds to step S8.

The information acquisition unit 41b stores information about the electrical appliances selected in step S3, together with the basic power consumption determined in step S5 or S7, in the house information DB 42c of the storage unit 42 as information about the electrical appliances installed in the house 1 (step S8). The information acquisition unit 41b determines whether the process of determining the basic power consumption has been completed for all electrical appliances included in the response from the user (step S9). If the process of determining the basic power consumption has not been completed for at least one electrical appliance (S9: NO), the information acquisition unit 41b returns to step S3, selects another electrical appliance, and repeats the above process. If the process of determining the basic power consumption has been completed for all electrical appliances (S9: YES), the information acquisition unit 41b ends the process.

In addition, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may estimate the electrical appliances installed in the user's house 1 and their power consumption when information about the electrical appliances cannot be obtained from the user, for example, when the user does not respond to some or all of the questions in the questionnaire. In this embodiment, the power consumption estimation server device 4 estimates that basic home appliances such as air conditioners, televisions, lights, and refrigerators are owned by the user and installed in the house 1. Note that the method of estimating the electrical appliances installed in the house 1 is not limited to the above method, and any method may be adopted.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 uses predetermined default values for the power consumption of these basic home appliances. The power consumption estimation server device 4 can calculate the average value of all clusters for each electrical appliance, for example, using the second basic power consumption DB 42b shown in FIG. 5, and set the calculated average value as the default value for the power consumption of the basic appliance. Note that the method of determining the default value for the power consumption of an electrical appliance is not limited to the above method, and any method may be adopted.

<Standby power amount estimation process>
In the information processing system according to the present embodiment, before starting to provide a service to a user, a process of estimating the standby power amount of an electric appliance installed in a house 1 is performed. When a request to use the service is given, the power consumption estimation server device 4 acquires information on the power consumption amount for a predetermined period for the target house 1 from the power company server device 3. For example, when estimating the standby power amount based on information on the power consumption amount for one month as the predetermined period, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may acquire information for the past one month from the time when the user requested to use the service from the power company server device 3. If the information for the past one month cannot be acquired because one month has not passed since the installation of the smart meter 2, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may estimate the standby power amount after one month of information has been accumulated, and start providing the service to the user. Alternatively, for example, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may start providing the service to the user using a default value for the standby power amount until one month of information is accumulated, estimate the standby power amount after one month of information is accumulated, and continue providing the service by changing the standby power amount from the default value to the estimated value.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 estimates the standby power consumption in the house 1 when the information on the power consumption for a specified period is obtained. The power consumption information is information transmitted by the smart meter 2 once every 30 minutes, and therefore contains 48 measured values of power consumption per day. If the specified period is one month (30 days), the power consumption estimation server device 4 obtains information on 48 x 30 = 1440 measured values of power consumption. The power consumption estimation server device 4 extracts three values, for example, the smallest value, the second smallest value, and the third smallest value, from the 48 measured values of power consumption for each day in the specified period. If the specified period is one month (30 days), 3 x 30 = 90 values are extracted. The power consumption estimation server device 4 obtains the mode (the value that is most frequently included) from the extracted values, and obtains a value of ±α (for example, 0.1) for the mode for one month and counts the number of values. The power consumption estimation server device 4 then calculates the standby power consumption based on the following formula and estimates the calculated value as the standby power consumption of the house 1.

(Standby power consumption) = (A1 x N1 + A2 x N2 + A3 x N3) / (N1 + N2 + N3)
A1: (mode - α) value N1: (mode - α) count A2: (mode) value N2: (mode) count A3: (mode + α) value N3: (mode + α) count

Figure 8 is a flowchart showing the steps of the standby power estimation process performed by the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment. The standby power estimation unit 41c of the processing unit 41 of the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment acquires information for a predetermined period, such as one month or one year, about the power consumption measured by the smart meter 2 for the target house 1 from the power company server device 3 (step S21). The standby power estimation unit 41c extracts the minimum, second smallest, and third smallest values of the power consumption for 30 minutes per day from the acquired information on the power consumption for the predetermined period (step S22).

The standby power amount estimation unit 41c acquires the most frequent value from among the multiple power consumption values extracted in step S22 (step S23). The standby power amount estimation unit 41c also acquires the value of the most frequent value ±α (step S24). The standby power amount estimation unit 41c calculates the standby power amount based on the most frequent value acquired in step S23 and the value of the most frequent value ±α acquired in step S24 (step S25). The standby power amount estimation unit 41c stores the standby power amount calculated in step S25 in the house information DB 42c of the storage unit 42 (step S26) and ends the process.

Figure 9 is a schematic diagram showing an example of the configuration of the house information DB 42c. The house information DB 42c in this embodiment is a database in which information such as "house ID", "electrical device information 1" ... "electrical device information N", "standby power amount", and "user terminal ID" are stored in association with each other. The "house ID" is identification information uniquely assigned to the house 1. However, instead of the "house ID" that identifies the house 1, for example, an ID that identifies the smart meter 2 may be used.

"Electrical appliance information 1"..."Electrical appliance information N" is information about electrical appliances installed in house 1, and the number of electrical appliances for which information is registered may vary for each house 1. Each "electrical appliance information" includes, for example, information about "electrical appliance" and "basic power consumption." "Electrical appliance" is information about the type of electrical appliance, such as an air conditioner or television. "Basic power consumption" is the basic power consumption determined from the model number or cluster of this electrical appliance by processing the flowchart shown in Figure 7.

"Standby power consumption" is the total standby power consumption of multiple electrical appliances installed in this house 1, and is the standby power consumption estimated by the processing of the flowchart shown in Figure 8. "User terminal ID" is identification information uniquely assigned to a user terminal device 5 owned by a user residing in this house 1. However, instead of a "user terminal ID" that identifies the user terminal device 5, it may be, for example, a unique user ID that is uniquely assigned to a user, and any information that can determine the destination to which the power consumption estimation results, etc. are sent may be used.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 stores necessary information in the house information DB 42c based on the user's responses to the questionnaire, the basic power consumption of each electrical device determined based on the responses, and the standby power consumption estimated for the house 1.

<Presumption of Use>
In the information processing system according to the present embodiment, the power consumption estimation server device 4 acquires information on the daily power consumption of the house 1 to be processed from the power company server device 3, for example, once a day, and estimates the daily power consumption of each electrical appliance installed in the house 1. The smart meter 2 installed in the house 1 transmits the measured value of the total power consumption of the house 1 to the power company server device 3 once every 30 minutes, so that the information on the daily power consumption of one house 1 acquired by the power consumption estimation server device 4 from the power company server device 3 includes 48 total power consumption measurement values. In order to estimate the daily power consumption of each electrical appliance, the power consumption estimation server device 4 estimates every 30 minutes whether each electrical appliance installed in the house 1 has been used (whether it was in operation or not, whether it was turned on or not) based on the measured value of the total power consumption every 30 minutes.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 estimates whether each electrical appliance is in use based on the total power consumption acquired from the power company server device 3, the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance stored in the house information DB 42c, and the conditions stored in the condition information DB 42d. An example of the conditions stored in the condition information DB 42d is described below. Note that the condition information DB 42d may store different conditions for each electrical appliance. An example of the conditions for three types of electrical appliances, an air conditioner, a lighting fixture, and a television, is described below. These conditions are examples, and more complex formulas can be used depending on the combination of electrical appliances used to estimate with greater accuracy. For example, the nighttime hours and the main usage times of the appliances can be calculated using values of data input by the user. Note that the condition information DB 42d stores various other conditions related to electrical appliances, but the description of these will be omitted in this embodiment.

(1) Conditions for assuming air conditioner use (cooling) - Daytime hours (6:00-17:00)
Total power consumption - standby power consumption - basic power consumption of air conditioner > 0, and temperature is 26°C or higher. Nighttime hours (0:00-5:00, 18:00-11:00)
Total power consumption - standby power consumption - basic power consumption of lighting equipment - basic power consumption of air conditioner > 0, and the temperature is 26°C or higher.

(2) Conditions for assuming that lighting equipment is in use Nighttime (12:00-5:00, 18:00-11:00) and Total power consumption - Standby power consumption - Basic power consumption of lighting equipment ≧ 0

(3) Conditions for assuming television use: Daytime hours (6:00-17:00)
Total power consumption – standby power consumption – basic power consumption of TV > 0
・Nighttime hours (12am-5am, 6pm-11am)
Total power consumption – standby power consumption – basic power consumption of lighting equipment – basic power consumption of television > 0

The basic power consumption of each electrical appliance is calculated based on the basic power consumption stored in the basic power consumption DB 42b or the house information DB 42c and the estimated time. For example, if the basic power consumption is 100 kW and the estimated time is 30 minutes (0.5 h), the basic power consumption is 50 kWh. The measured values of the smart meter 2 stored in the power company server device 3 are accompanied by information on the measurement date and time, and the power consumption obtained by the power consumption estimation server device 4 from the power company server device 3 is accompanied by information on the measurement date and time. The power consumption estimation server device 4 determines the daytime and nighttime hours, etc. based on the information on the measurement date and time. The power consumption estimation server device 4 also obtains information such as the temperature during the estimated time from a server device of the Japan Meteorological Agency or a weather forecasting company, for example.

In addition, under each of the above conditions, the total power consumption is the power consumption measured by the smart meter 2 of the house 1. However, the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to the present embodiment estimates whether or not the electrical appliances installed in the house 1 have been used by using the above conditions, starting from the appliance with the largest basic power consumption. If the order of basic power consumption is, for example, air conditioner > lighting fixture > television, the power consumption estimation server device 4 estimates whether or not the appliances have been used by applying the above conditions to the air conditioner, lighting fixture, and television in that order. When the estimation process is performed in this order, and it is estimated that the air conditioner has been used, for example, the power consumption estimation server device 4 determines the condition for the next lighting fixture, using the value obtained by subtracting the basic power consumption of the air conditioner from the total power consumption as the new total power consumption. In other words, the power consumption estimation server device 4 determines whether or not each electrical appliance is used by repeatedly performing condition determinations in order from the electrical appliance with the largest basic power consumption, while updating the total power consumption by subtracting the basic power consumption of the electrical appliance estimated to have been used from the total power consumption measured by the smart meter 2.

For example, suppose that the air conditioner power consumption = 600 kWh, the lighting power consumption = 120 kWh, the television power consumption = 100 kWh, and the standby power consumption = 10 kWh, and the total power consumption measured by smart meter 2 is 700 kWh. Also, suppose that the time period is daytime and the temperature is 27°C. In this case, the estimated condition for the air conditioner is 700-10-600 = 90 > 0, and it is estimated that the air conditioner was in use. The total power consumption is updated to 700-600 = 100. Next, it is estimated that the lighting fixture was not in use during the daytime due to the above conditions, and the total power consumption is maintained at 100. Next, the estimated condition for the television is 100-10-100 = -10 < 0, and it is not estimated that the television was not in use.

For example, under similar conditions, if it is nighttime, the estimated condition for the air conditioner is 700-10-120-600=-20<0, which is not true, so it is estimated that the air conditioner was not in use, and the total power consumption is maintained at 700. Next, the estimated condition for the lighting fixture is 700-10-120=570>0, which is true, so it is estimated that the lighting fixture was in use. The total power consumption is updated to 700-120=580. Next, the estimated condition for the television is 580-10-100=470>0, which is true, so it is estimated that the television was in use, and the total power consumption is updated to 580-100=480. When determining whether other electrical appliances are in use, the condition determination is made based on the updated total power consumption.

The above estimation conditions are merely examples and are not limiting. In the above estimation conditions, different conditions are set for daytime and nighttime, but different conditions may be set for example based on the day of the week (weekdays and holidays), the season, or long holiday periods (summer vacation, winter vacation, spring vacation, Obon holidays, New Year's holidays, etc.).

<Power Consumption Estimation Process>
After estimating whether each electrical appliance installed in the house 1 is in use, the power consumption estimation server device 4 performs a process to estimate the power consumption of each electrical appliance. The power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment estimates whether each electrical appliance is in use for the total power consumption for each 30 minutes of the day, and calculates how many hours each electrical appliance was used in the day based on the estimation results. The power consumption estimation server device 4 can calculate the time each electrical appliance was used by calculating "estimated number of times it was used x 0.5 hours = desired time it was used".

Next, the power consumption estimation server device 4 calculates the daily power consumption of each electrical device based on the estimated time each electrical device was used and the basic power consumption of each electrical device. The power consumption estimation server device 4 can calculate the power consumption of each electrical device as "estimated time x basic power consumption = daily power consumption".

Figure 10 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the power consumption estimation process performed by the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment. The total power consumption acquisition unit 41a of the processing unit 41 of the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment acquires information on the total power consumption measured by the smart meter 2 of the house 1 from the power company server device 3, for example, once a day (step S31). The information acquired by the total power consumption acquisition unit 41a at this time includes the measurement values of the smart meter 2 every 30 minutes for one day.

Next, the usage estimation unit 41d of the processing unit 41 acquires the total power consumption for 30 minutes from the information on the total power consumption for one day acquired in step S31 (step S32). The usage estimation unit 41d reads out the estimated condition of one electrical device installed in the house 1 from the condition information DB 42d of the storage unit 42 (step S33). The usage estimation unit 41d judges whether the condition read out in step S33 is satisfied (step S34). If the condition is satisfied (S34: YES), the usage estimation unit 41d estimates that the electrical device is in use (step S35), updates the total power consumption by subtracting the basic power consumption of the electrical device from the total power consumption (step S36), and proceeds to step S38. If the condition is not satisfied (S34: NO), the usage estimation unit 41d estimates that the electrical device is not in use (step S37), and proceeds to step S38.

The usage estimation unit 41d judges whether or not the estimation of the usage status of all electrical devices installed in the house 1 has been completed (step S38). If the estimation of the usage status of at least one electrical device has not been completed (S38: NO), the usage estimation unit 41d returns to the process of step S33, reads out the estimation conditions for another electrical device, and repeats the judgment process. If the estimation of the usage status of all electrical devices has been completed (S38: YES), the usage estimation unit 41d further judges whether or not the estimation of the usage status every 30 minutes has been completed for one day (step S39). If the estimation for one day has not been completed (S39: NO), the usage estimation unit 41d returns to the process of step S32, and repeats the process for another 30 minutes.

When the estimation for one day is completed (S39: YES), the usage estimation unit 41d calculates the usage time of each electrical device for one day based on the estimation result of whether each electrical device is used every 30 minutes (step S40). Next, the power consumption estimation unit 41e of the processing unit 41 calculates the power consumption of each electrical device for one day based on the usage time of each electrical device and the basic power consumption of each electrical device (step S41), and ends the processing.

<Power consumption of refrigerator>
Since it is considered that a refrigerator is always in use and always operates with its power turned on, in this embodiment, the power consumption of the refrigerator can be included in the standby power consumption. The power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment calculates the daily power consumption of the refrigerator using a calculation formula that is predetermined for each refrigerator or for each cluster of refrigerators. For example, when the average daily temperature is T [° C.] and the annual power consumption of the refrigerator is P [kWh/year], the calculation formula is predetermined as the daily power consumption of the refrigerator p [kWh]=a×T+b×P, and the values of constants a and b that constitute this calculation formula for each refrigerator or for each cluster are stored in the power consumption estimation server device 4.

The above formula is derived by weighting each day in the year by the average temperature based on the refrigerator's annual power consumption (e.g., catalog value or actual measurement value) and the average daily temperature for the year, calculating the power consumption for each day by apportioning the annual power consumption to each weighted day, and creating a regression equation using the calculated power consumption for each day and the average temperature.

In this embodiment, a refrigerator is given as an example of an electrical appliance that operates constantly, but if there are other electrical appliances that operate constantly, the daily power consumption may be estimated using a similar method. For example, the power consumption of a warm water washing toilet seat can be estimated using a similar method. Furthermore, in the case of an electrical appliance that operates constantly and whose power consumption does not change or changes only slightly in response to changes in temperature, the daily power consumption may be treated as a constant value.

<Display of Estimation Results>
The energy consumption estimation server device 4, which has estimated the energy consumption of each electrical appliance in the house 1, transmits the estimation results to a user terminal device 5 of a user or the like residing in the house 1. The transmission of the estimation results from the energy consumption estimation server device 4 to the user terminal device 5 may be, for example, a so-called push-type transmission in which the energy consumption estimation server device 4 spontaneously performs the transmission, or may be, for example, a so-called pull-type transmission in which the energy consumption estimation server device 4 transmits information in response to a request from the user terminal device 5. The user terminal device 5, which has received information regarding the estimation results from the energy consumption estimation server device 4, displays the received information on a display unit 54 to notify the user of the estimation results of the energy consumption of the electrical appliances.

11 and 12 are schematic diagrams showing examples of the display of the estimated power consumption by the user terminal device 5 according to the present embodiment. The display example shown in FIG. 11 shows the estimated power consumption of electrical appliances installed in the house 1 in the form of a bar graph. In this example, a title string of "Power Consumption by Household Appliance" and a string of "August 1, 2020" as the date of the estimation are displayed at the top of the screen. Below these strings, the user terminal device 5 displays information on the air conditioner, refrigerator, lighting, electric heated toilet seat, and other electrical appliances installed in the house 1 in a vertical line. As information on each electrical appliance, the user terminal device 5 displays an icon that imitates the appearance of the electrical appliance, an estimated power consumption in units of Wh, a numerical value obtained by converting the power consumption into an electricity fee, and a horizontal bar that shows the power consumption in a schematic length.

The display example shown in FIG. 12 shows similar information in a pie chart. In this example, the top of the screen displays the title string "Power consumption by home appliance" and the string "August 1, 2020" as the date of the estimation. Below these strings, the user terminal device 5 displays a pie chart showing the percentage of power consumption by the air conditioner, refrigerator, lighting, electric toilet seat, and other electrical appliances in the house 1 to the total power consumption of the house 1. Below this pie chart, the user terminal device 5 displays information about the air conditioner, refrigerator, lighting, electric toilet seat, and other electrical appliances installed in the house 1 arranged in a matrix. As information about each electrical appliance, the user terminal device 5 displays an icon that resembles the appearance of the electrical appliance, an estimated power consumption in Wh, and a value obtained by converting the power consumption into an electricity charge.

The user terminal device 5 may display either one of the screens shown in FIG. 11 and FIG. 12, or may display both. When the user terminal device 5 displays both the screens shown in FIG. 11 and FIG. 12, the screen to be displayed may be switched in response to a user operation, for example. The user terminal device 5 may also provide the user with the estimated power consumption result in a screen configuration different from that of FIG. 11 and FIG. 12.

In addition, in this embodiment, the power consumption estimation server device 4 notifies the user of the estimated power consumption for one day, but this is not limited to this, and the user may be notified of the power consumption for any period, such as one week or one month.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 may also provide the user with information comparing the estimated results for the target house 1 with the estimated results for other houses 1 based on the results of estimating the power consumption of electrical appliances for multiple houses 1. For example, the power consumption of the air conditioner in a specific month can be displayed on the user terminal device 5 side by side with the power consumption of the air conditioner in the target house 1 and the power consumption of the air conditioner in the house 1 with low or high power consumption. Furthermore, for example, by comparing with the average power consumption of the same number of people in a household, the amount of power consumption of the user can be grasped. For example, the power consumption of the air conditioners in multiple houses 1 can be ranked by high or low, and the ranking of the power consumption of the target house 1 can be displayed on the user terminal device 5. The power consumption estimation server device 4 may provide such comparative information for electrical appliances other than air conditioners, and may provide comparative information for the power consumption of the entire house 1.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 may also notify the user of electrical appliances whose power consumption has increased or decreased beyond a threshold value, in comparison with the estimated power consumption result from a predetermined period ago.

<Multiple unit processing>
A house 1 may have a plurality of electrical appliances of the same type or the same type. For example, if the house 1 has two air conditioners, the power consumption estimation server device 4 first determines whether the two air conditioners are being used simultaneously based on the above conditions. At this time, it is determined whether the "basic power consumption of the air conditioner" satisfies the condition as the "total value of the basic power consumption of the two air conditioners". If it is determined that the two air conditioners are not being used simultaneously, the power consumption estimation server device 4 prioritizes the air conditioner with the larger basic power consumption and determines whether the air conditioner is being used one by one based on the above conditions. If it is determined that the air conditioner with the larger basic power consumption is not being used, the power consumption estimation server device 4 determines whether the air conditioner with the smaller basic power consumption is being used.

Similarly, when three or more air conditioners are installed in the house 1, the power consumption estimation server device 4 first determines whether all three are being used simultaneously, and if they are not being used, it determines whether two are being used simultaneously, giving priority to the one with the largest basic power consumption. The power consumption estimation server device 4 creates a pair of two air conditioners in descending order of basic power consumption, and determines whether these two satisfy the conditions. When two are not being used simultaneously, the power consumption estimation server device 4 determines whether only one is being used, giving priority to the one with the largest basic power consumption. When four or more air conditioners are installed, the use of the air conditioners can be estimated in a similar manner. The use of electrical appliances other than air conditioners can also be estimated in a similar manner.

When there are multiple electrical appliances, the determination may be made not in order of the appliance with the highest basic power consumption, but, for example, in an order based on a predetermined priority. For example, when multiple air conditioners are installed in house 1, the air conditioner installed in the living room of house 1 may be set as the highest priority, and it may be determined whether the air conditioner in the living room has been used first. Note that this priority may be set not only among electrical appliances of the same type, but also across types of electrical appliances. For example, the priority may be set as follows: air conditioner in living room > lighting fixtures in living room > television in living room > air conditioner in bedroom...

<Summary>
The power consumption estimation server device 4 according to the present embodiment configured as described above acquires information on the total power consumption measured by the smart meter 2 installed in the house 1 from the power company server device 3. The power consumption estimation server device 4 acquires information on one or more electrical appliances installed in the house 1 by acquiring responses to a questionnaire or the like from a user at a user terminal device 5. Based on the acquired information, the power consumption estimation server device 4 acquires the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance from a basic power consumption DB 42b in which the electrical appliances and their basic power consumptions are stored in association with each other. The power consumption estimation server device 4 estimates whether each electrical appliance is in use, and estimates the power consumption of each electrical appliance based on the total power consumption of the house 1, the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance, and whether each electrical appliance is in use. This makes it possible to estimate the power consumption of each electrical appliance based on the total power consumption measured by the smart meter 2 without providing an appliance for measuring the power consumption of each electrical appliance in the house 1, for example, and is expected to facilitate the introduction of a system for estimating the power consumption of each electrical appliance in the house 1.

In addition, the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment classifies electrical appliances into clusters for which detailed information such as model numbers is not available, and acquires the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance installed in the house 1 from the basic power consumption DB 42b in which the clusters and the basic power consumption of electrical appliances belonging to these clusters are stored in association with each other. This makes it possible to estimate the power consumption of electrical appliances even if the user does not know detailed information such as the model numbers of the electrical appliances.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment estimates standby power consumed by one or more electrical appliances installed in the house 1. The power consumption estimation server device 4 estimates whether each electrical appliance is in use or not based on the total power consumption measured by the smart meter 2, the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance, and the estimated standby power consumption. The power consumption estimation server device 4 is expected to improve the accuracy of the estimation by making the estimation while taking standby power into account.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment also stores conditions for estimating whether an electrical device is in use for each type of electrical device in the condition information DB 42d, and estimates whether an electrical device is in use based on whether the stored conditions are met. This allows the power consumption estimation server device 4 to estimate whether an electrical device is in use under appropriate conditions according to the type of electrical device.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 according to this embodiment estimates whether a certain electrical appliance is being used based on the conditions, total power consumption, basic power consumption, standby power consumption, etc., and if it estimates that the certain electrical appliance is being used, it updates the total power consumption to a value obtained by subtracting the power consumption of the certain electrical appliance from the total power consumption. The power consumption estimation server device 4 then estimates whether other electrical appliances are being used based on the updated total power consumption. This allows the power consumption estimation server device 4 to sequentially estimate whether multiple electrical appliances installed in the house 1 are being used.

In this embodiment, the power consumption estimation server device 4 is configured to obtain information on the measured values of the smart meter 2 from the power company server device 3, but this is not limited thereto. For example, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may obtain the measured value information directly from the smart meter 2. Also, for example, an information processing device such as a PC (personal computer) installed in the house 1 may obtain the measured value information from the smart meter 2 and transmit this information to the power consumption estimation server device 4. Also, for example, instead of the power consumption estimation server device 4, an information processing device in the house 1 may estimate the power consumption. In this case, the information processing device may display the estimated result on its own display unit or the like, rather than transmitting the estimated result to the user terminal device 5.

In addition, when the power consumption estimation server device 4 can obtain information that can be used to estimate whether an electrical appliance installed in the house 1 is in use, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may use this information in combination to estimate whether the electrical appliance is in use. For example, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may obtain information such as the operation content received from a remote control that operates the electrical appliance or the control signal transmitted to the electrical appliance from the remote control, and use the information for the estimation. In addition, for example, the power consumption estimation server device 4 may in advance ask the user a questionnaire to obtain information such as the number of people living in the house 1, their ages, or their family structure, the number of rooms in the house 1, the size of the rooms, the role of the rooms (living room, bedroom, etc.) or the number of floors, information on the lifestyle patterns of the people living in the house 1, and information on the usage patterns of the electrical appliances, and obtain responses from the users to the inquiries to use for the estimation.

The basic power consumption of each electrical device may be determined based on the measurement results, for example, by attaching a sensor or the like to the electrical device installed in the house 1 for a certain period of time to measure the power consumption or amount of power consumption. For each type of electrical device, the most sold electrical device in each manufacturing or sales year may be taken as a representative, and the power consumption of the representative electrical device may be taken as the basic power consumption of the electrical device of this type in that year.

In the present embodiment, air conditioners, televisions, lighting fixtures, refrigerators, etc. have been given as examples of electrical appliances, but the electrical appliances may be various other types. In addition, although the conditions for estimating whether each electrical appliance is in use have been given, these conditions are merely examples and are not limiting. In addition, the database configurations and information stored in the databases shown in Figures 4 and 5 are merely examples and are not limiting. In addition, the screen displays shown in Figures 11 and 12 are merely examples and are not limiting.

<Embodiment 2>
In the above-described embodiment, the power consumption estimation server device 4 determines that the power consumption of each electrical device is equal to the power consumption of each electrical device x the usage time, and regards the sum of the power consumptions of a plurality of electrical devices as the total power consumption. In contrast, the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to the second embodiment determines that the power consumption of each electrical device is equal to the power consumption of each electrical device x the usage time x weight. A method for determining this "weight" will be described below.

First, the power consumption estimation server device 4 according to the second embodiment accepts feedback information input from the user regarding the time periods during which the electrical appliance is in use that are estimated by the above-described process of estimating whether or not it is in use. In particular, the power consumption estimation server device 4 accepts information from the user regarding the time periods during which the electrical appliance is in use despite not being in use, or the time periods during which the electrical appliance is in use despite being in use, but not being used.

Fig. 13 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a display of a feedback information reception screen by a user terminal device 5 according to the second embodiment. The power consumption estimation server device 4 according to the second embodiment shows the estimated usage time period for each electrical appliance to the user by displaying the screen shown in Fig. 13 on the user terminal device 5. The screen shown in the figure displays, for example, a message saying "Please select a time when not in use" and an image of the target electrical appliance (a television in this example), and below these, the usage time period of the electrical appliance is shown as a graph. In this example, the graph has time on the horizontal axis, the usage time of the electrical appliance is shown as a line graph, and the electricity fee is shown as a bar graph.

The user uses the operation unit 55 of the user terminal device 5 to perform an input operation to specify a time period during which the television is not in use in this graph. In the illustrated example, the time period from 2:00 AM to 10:30 AM is specified as a time period during which the user is not using the television. The user terminal device 5 accepts the user's input of the time period and transmits information on the accepted time period to the power consumption estimation server device 4. Note that, although this example shows a configuration in which the user's input is accepted for time periods during which the electrical appliance is not in use, a configuration in which the user's input is accepted for time periods during which the electrical appliance is in use may also be used.

The power consumption estimation server device 4, which has acquired information about time periods when an electrical appliance (television) is not in use from the user terminal device 5, performs a process of determining a "weight" for this electrical appliance. Note that the default value of the "weight" for each electrical appliance is "1," and the "weight" for the electrical appliance about which information is obtained from the user is updated from "1" to another value.

For example, suppose that the power consumption estimation server device 4 estimates that the daily power consumption of the electrical device for the date and time period for which the graph of the time period of use was presented to the user is 1000 Wh, and that the power consumption of the electrical device is 80 W. Based on the information on the time period for which the electrical device is not used input by the user, the power consumption estimation server device 4 calculates the time during which the electrical device was estimated to be in use but was not actually used. If this unused time is, for example, 5 hours, the power consumption estimation server device 4 calculates the power consumption of 400 Wh for the electrical device by multiplying the power consumption of 80 W and the unused time of 5 hours. The power consumption estimation server device 4 subtracts the calculated power consumption of 400 Wh from the estimated daily power consumption of 1000 Wh for the electrical device to calculate 1000 Wh - 400 Wh = 600 Wh. The power consumption estimation server device 4 sets the ratio of this value to the original power consumption of 1000 Wh, i.e. 600/1000 = 0.6, as the "weight" for the electrical device. In other words, "weight" = (estimated power consumption - power consumption during unused time) / estimated power consumption.

Next, the power consumption estimation server device 4 performs a process to determine the "weighting" of electrical appliances other than those for which the "weighting" was determined by the above process, i.e., electrical appliances for which the user has not input the unused time period.

For example, it is assumed that the television, whose "weight" has already been determined, accounts for 20% of the total daily power consumption of the entire house 1, and the air conditioner, whose "weight" will be determined next, accounts for 40%. It is also assumed that the estimated daily power consumption of the air conditioner is 10,000 Wh. The power consumption estimation server device 4 calculates the power consumption of the air conditioner when the power consumption of 400 Wh (= 80 W x 5 hours), which corresponds to the time when the television is not used, is apportioned to the electrical appliances other than the television in proportion to the total daily power consumption. In other words, the power consumption estimation server device 4 calculates the apportioned power consumption as 400 Wh x (0.4/(1-0.2)) = 200 Wh. Next, the power consumption estimation server device 4 adds the apportioned power consumption of 200 Wh to the power consumption of the air conditioner of 10,000 Wh to calculate 10,200 Wh, and sets the ratio of this value to the original power consumption of 10,000 Wh, i.e., 10,200/10,000=1.02, as the "weight" for the air conditioner.
"Weight" = (estimated power consumption + apportioned value of power consumption during unused time) / estimated power consumption.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 determines the "weight" for electrical devices other than air conditioners in the same manner, and stores the determined "weight" for each electrical device in the storage unit 42. Thereafter, when estimating the power consumption for each electrical device, the power consumption estimation server device 4 multiplies the power consumption of each electrical device by the usage time of each electrical device and the "weight" of each electrical device to obtain an estimated power consumption value.

The power consumption estimation server device 4 according to the second embodiment configured as described above acquires information fed back from the user, for example, information about time periods when an electrical device is not in use, and calculates a "weight (coefficient)" to be used when calculating an estimated value of the power consumption of the electrical device. Based on the calculation result of this "weight," the power consumption estimation server device 4 also calculates "weights" for electrical devices other than the electrical device for which feedback from the user has been received. The power consumption estimation server device 4 stores the calculated "weight" for each electrical device, and performs calculations taking the stored "weight" into account when estimating the power consumption thereafter. This is expected to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the power consumption of each electrical device by the power consumption estimation server device 4.

Note that the screen configuration shown in FIG. 13 is an example and is not limiting. Also, the numerical values of the power consumption illustrated in the second embodiment are an example and are not limiting.

In addition, other configurations of the information processing system according to embodiment 2 are similar to those of the information processing system according to embodiment 1, so similar parts are given the same reference numerals and detailed descriptions are omitted.

The embodiments disclosed herein are illustrative in all respects and should not be considered limiting. The scope of the present invention is indicated by the claims, not by the above meaning, and is intended to include all modifications within the scope and meaning equivalent to the claims.

Reference Signs List 1 House 2 Smart meter 3 Power company server device 4 Power consumption estimation server device 5 User terminal device 41 Processing unit 41a Total power consumption acquisition unit 41b Information acquisition unit 41c Standby power consumption estimation unit 41d Usage estimation unit 41e Power consumption estimation unit 42 Storage unit 42a Server program 42b Basic power consumption DB
42c House information DB
42d Condition information DB
43 Communication unit 51 Processing unit 51a Display processing unit 51b Input reception unit 52 Storage unit 52a Program 53 Communication unit 54 Display unit 55 Operation unit 98, 99 Recording medium

Claims (8)

An information processing device,
The total amount of power consumed measured by the smart meter is acquired,
Obtain information about electrical equipment,
Based on the acquired information, acquire the basic power consumption of each electrical device connected to the smart meter from a first database in which identification information of the electrical device and the basic power consumption of the electrical device are stored in association with each other;
If the information on the electrical appliance cannot be obtained, an electrical appliance used in the house is estimated;
Based on the estimated electric appliances, the basic power consumption of each electric appliance is obtained from a second database in which the type of electric appliance and the basic power consumption amount of the electric appliance are stored in association with each other ;
Estimate whether each electrical device is in use or not,
Estimating the power consumption of each electrical appliance based on the total power consumption measured by the smart meter, the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance, and whether or not each electrical appliance is in use;
How to estimate power consumption. The total power consumption is a value measured by the smart meter per unit time,
Estimating the power consumption of each electrical device per unit time;
The power consumption estimation method according to claim 1 . Classify electrical equipment into clusters,
acquiring the basic power consumption of each electrical device from the second database in which the cluster and the basic power consumption of the electrical devices belonging to the cluster are stored in association with each other;
The power consumption estimation method according to claim 1 or 2. Estimate the standby power consumption of electrical equipment,
Estimating whether each electrical appliance is in use or not based on the total power consumption measured by the smart meter, the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance, and the standby power consumption.
The power consumption estimation method according to any one of claims 1 to 3. storing conditions for estimating whether or not an electrical device is in use for each type of electrical device;
estimating whether each electrical appliance is in use or not based on the stored conditions, the total power consumption measured by the smart meter, the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance, and the standby power consumption;
The power consumption estimation method according to claim 4 . Estimating whether or not an electrical appliance is in use based on the stored conditions, the total power consumption measured by the smart meter, the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance, and the standby power consumption;
When it is estimated that the one electrical appliance has been used, the total power consumption is updated to a value obtained by subtracting the power consumption of the one electrical appliance from the total power consumption;
The power consumption estimation method according to claim 5 , further comprising estimating whether or not other electric appliances are in use based on the stored conditions, the updated total power consumption, the basic power consumption of each electric appliance, and the standby power consumption. On the computer,
The total amount of power consumed measured by the smart meter is acquired,
Obtain information about electrical equipment,
Based on the acquired information, acquire the basic power consumption of each electrical device connected to the smart meter from a first database in which identification information of the electrical device and the basic power consumption of the electrical device are stored in association with each other;
If the information on the electrical appliance cannot be obtained, an electrical appliance used in the house is estimated;
Based on the estimated electric appliances, the basic power consumption of each electric appliance is obtained from a second database in which the type of electric appliance and the basic power consumption amount of the electric appliance are stored in association with each other ;
Estimate whether each electrical device is in use or not,
A computer program that causes a computer to execute a process of estimating the power consumption of each electrical appliance based on the total power consumption measured by the smart meter, the basic power consumption of each electrical appliance, and whether or not each electrical appliance is in use. a total power consumption acquisition unit that acquires the total power consumption measured by the smart meter;
an information acquisition unit that acquires information about the electrical device;
a first basic power consumption acquiring unit that acquires the basic power consumption of each electrical device connected to the smart meter from a first database in which identification information of the electrical device and the basic power consumption of the electrical device are stored in association with each other based on the acquired information;
an electrical appliance estimation unit that estimates an electrical appliance being used in the house when information about the electrical appliance cannot be acquired;
a second basic power consumption acquiring unit that acquires the basic power consumption of each electrical device from a second database in which the type of electrical device and the basic power consumption amount of the electrical device are stored in association with each other based on the estimated electrical device;
a usage estimation unit that estimates whether each electrical device is in use;
and a power consumption estimation unit that estimates the power consumption of each electrical appliance based on a total power consumption measured by the smart meter, a basic power consumption of each electrical appliance, and whether or not each electrical appliance is in use.

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