JP7655261B2 - Vehicle control systems and programs - Google Patents

Description

This disclosure relates to a control system and program for a moving object.

A conventional failure prediction system is described in Patent Document 1 below. This system includes a target vehicle that is to be predicted to break down, and a failure prediction server that can communicate with the target vehicle via a network. The failure prediction server predicts whether a failure will occur in the target vehicle in the near future, using data obtained in advance from the target vehicle before the failure occurs. Specifically, the failure prediction server performs a correlation calculation between the vehicle data received from the target vehicle and the vehicle data of the broken-down vehicle, and predicts that a failure will occur in the target vehicle based on the existence of a certain correlation between the vehicle data. This prediction result is notified to the customer of the target vehicle, making it possible to alert the customer before a failure occurs.

JP 2004-268633 A

In the failure prediction system described in Patent Document 1, if there is no vehicle data for a faulty vehicle, it is not possible to predict whether or not a failure will occur in the target vehicle, which is a factor that reduces the versatility of the system.
It should be noted that this problem is not limited to vehicles, but is a common problem to any moving object for which it is desirable to have a failure detection function.

This disclosure has been made in light of these circumstances, and its purpose is to provide a control system and program for a moving object that is highly versatile while being capable of detecting the probability of a failure occurring.

A control system for a moving body that solves the above problems includes a data acquisition unit (51) and a failure occurrence probability calculation unit (53, 1421). The data acquisition unit acquires data on a plurality of failure factors that cause failures in components mounted on the moving body. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit calculates a failure occurrence probability of a corresponding component based on the data on the plurality of failure factors. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit calculates a failure occurrence probability of each of a plurality of components constituting the mounted equipment, and calculates a failure occurrence probability of the mounted equipment based on the failure occurrence probability of each of the plurality of components and the availability of each of the plurality of components.
Another mobile body control system that solves the above problem includes a data acquisition unit (51), a failure occurrence probability calculation unit (53, 1421), and a fee calculation unit (82). The data acquisition unit acquires data on a plurality of failure factors that cause failures in components mounted on the mobile body. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit calculates the failure occurrence probability of the corresponding components based on the data on the plurality of failure factors. The fee calculation unit calculates a discount rate or discount amount for the insurance premium based on the failure occurrence probability of the mounted components.

In addition, the program for solving the above problem causes a computer (50) to acquire data on a plurality of failure factors that are factors that cause failures in onboard equipment of a moving body (20), calculate the failure probability of the onboard equipment corresponding to the plurality of failure factor data based on the data, calculate the failure probability of each of a plurality of parts that make up the onboard equipment, and calculate the failure probability of the onboard equipment based on the failure probability of each of the plurality of parts and the availability of each of the plurality of parts .
Another program for solving the above problem causes a computer (50) to acquire data on a plurality of failure factors that are factors that cause failures in on-board equipment of a moving body (20), calculates the probability of failure of the on-board equipment corresponding to the plurality of failure factor data based on the data, and calculates a discount rate or discount amount for insurance premiums based on the probability of failure of the on-board equipment.

With these configurations, the probability of a part failing can be calculated based on the data on the failure factors acquired by the data acquisition unit, so vehicle data on the broken-down vehicle is not required to calculate the probability of a part failing. Therefore, it is possible to realize a highly versatile mobile control system that is capable of detecting the probability of a failure.

Note that the symbols in parentheses in the above means and claims are examples showing the correspondence with the specific means described in the embodiments described below.

The control system and program for a moving object disclosed herein are capable of detecting the probability of a fault occurring while also being highly versatile.

FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a schematic configuration of a control system according to a first embodiment. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of the vehicle according to the first embodiment. FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of the control system according to the first embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an outline of a schematic screen displayed on the touch panel of the first embodiment. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an outline of a details screen displayed on the touch panel of the first embodiment. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an outline of a notification screen displayed on the touch panel of the first embodiment. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing a procedure of a process executed by the control device for a vehicle according to the first embodiment. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a procedure of a process executed by the arithmetic unit of the server device of the first embodiment. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an outline of an insurance premium confirmation screen displayed on the touch panel of the first embodiment. FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing a procedure of a process executed by the vehicle control device of the first modified example of the first embodiment. 11A to 11F are timing charts showing the trends of the confirmation button, vehicle state, intensity of use of the on-board items, failure rate of the on-board items, discount rate of the insurance premium, and discounted insurance premium in a vehicle of the first variant of the first embodiment. FIG. 12 is a graph showing the relationship between the number of stresses and the market stress intensity used in the control system of the eighth modified example of the first embodiment. FIG. 13 is a graph showing the relationship between the reciprocal of the product temperature in the market and the usage time used in the control system of the eighth modified example of the first embodiment. FIG. 14 is a diagram illustrating a schematic configuration of a control system according to the second embodiment. FIG. 15 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a control system according to the second embodiment. 16A and 16B are diagrams each showing a schematic configuration of a motor and a battery according to the third embodiment. FIG. 17 is a table showing the relationship between the items, acquisition methods, and usage methods used to set insurance premiums. FIG. 18 is a table showing the relationship between the items, acquisition methods, and usage methods used to set insurance premiums. FIG. 19 is a table showing the relationship between the items, acquisition methods, and usage methods used to set insurance premiums.

Hereinafter, an embodiment of a control system for a moving object will be described with reference to the drawings. In order to facilitate understanding of the description, the same components in each drawing are denoted by the same reference numerals as much as possible, and duplicated description will be omitted.
First Embodiment
First, a control system 10 according to a first embodiment shown in FIG. 1 will be described. As shown in FIG. 1, the control system 10 includes a vehicle 20 and a server device 30. In this embodiment, the vehicle 20 corresponds to a moving body. The vehicle 20 is a so-called hybrid vehicle having an engine and a motor as a power source for traveling. The vehicle 20 has a function of calculating the failure occurrence probability of various products mounted thereon, such as an engine, a battery, tires, an air conditioner, etc., and notifying the driver of the vehicle 20 of the calculated failure occurrence probability. The vehicle 20 is capable of communicating with the server device 30. The server device 30 acquires information about the vehicle 20 by communicating with the vehicle 20, and sets the insurance premium for the vehicle 20 based on the acquired information.

Next, specific configurations of the vehicle 20 and the server device 30 will be described with reference to FIG. 2 and FIG.
As shown in FIG. 2, the vehicle 20 has a battery 21, an inverter device 22, a motor 23, a generator 24, a transmission 25, and an engine 26.

The battery 21 is a secondary battery that is capable of being charged and discharged.
The inverter device 22 converts the DC power supplied from the battery 21 into three-phase AC power, and supplies the converted three-phase AC power to the motor 23 .

The motor 23 is driven based on the three-phase AC power supplied from the inverter device 22. The motor 23 transmits power to the wheels 27 via the transmission 25, thereby applying torque to the wheels 27, and causes the vehicle 20 to accelerate.
The generator 24 generates electricity by regenerative driving when the vehicle 20 is decelerating. A braking force is applied to the wheels 27 by the regenerative driving of the generator 24. The three-phase AC power generated by the regenerative driving of the generator 24 is converted to DC power by the inverter device 22 and charged into the battery 21.

The engine 26 transmits power to the wheels 27 via the transmission 25 to impart torque to the wheels 27, thereby accelerating the vehicle 20.
As shown in FIG. 3 , the vehicle 20 further includes a sensor unit 40 , a control device 50 , a touch panel 60 , a storage device 61 , and a communication device 62 .

The sensor unit 40 refers to various sensors mounted on the vehicle 20. The sensor unit 40 includes, for example, an outside air temperature sensor 41, a battery temperature sensor 42, and an SOC (State Of Charge) sensor 43. The outside air temperature sensor 41 detects the outside air temperature of the vehicle 20. The battery temperature sensor 42 detects the temperature of the battery 21. The SOC sensor 43 detects the SOC value of the battery 21. The SOC value represents the state of charge of the battery 21 in the range from 0% to 100%, with the fully discharged state of the battery 21 defined as 0% and the fully charged state of the battery 21 defined as 100%. The various sensors included in the sensor unit 40 output signals corresponding to the detected physical quantities to the control device 50.

The touch panel 60 functions as a display device that displays various information visible to the driver of the vehicle 20, and as an operation device that allows the driver to perform various input operations. For example, a touch panel of a car navigation device can be used as the touch panel 60.

The storage device 61 stores various information about the vehicle 20, such as information about the insurance premium for the vehicle 20.
The communication device 62 is a device for performing two-way wireless communication with the server device 30 via a network line.

The control device 50 is mainly composed of a microcomputer having a CPU, ROM, RAM, etc. The control device 50 acquires various information of the vehicle 20 based on the output signal of the sensor unit 40, and executes various processes of the vehicle 20 based on the acquired information. For example, the control device 50 executes a process of calculating a failure occurrence probability of a product mounted on the vehicle 20 based on the various information of the vehicle 20 detected by the sensor unit 40, and displays the calculated failure occurrence probability on the touch panel 60. In order to execute such processes, the control device 50 has a data acquisition unit 51, an operation detection unit 52, a failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53, a failure determination unit 54, a notification unit 55, and a communication unit 56 as functional components realized by executing a program previously stored in the ROM.

The data acquisition unit 51 acquires various types of information about the vehicle 20 based on the output signals of the sensor unit 40. For example, the data acquisition unit 51 acquires information about the outside air temperature T _out , which is the environmental temperature of the vehicle 20, based on the output signal of the outside air temperature sensor 41. The data acquisition unit 51 also acquires information about the temperature _TB of the battery 21 based on the output signal of the battery temperature sensor 42. Furthermore, the data acquisition unit 51 acquires information about the SOC value of the battery 21 based on the output signal of the SOC sensor 43.

The operation detection unit 52 detects the driver's operation on the touch panel 60. For example, when the overview screen 100 as shown in FIG. 4 is displayed on the touch panel 60 and the "battery" icon 101 is touched, the operation detection unit 52 detects the touch operation.

The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 shown in FIG. 3 calculates the failure occurrence probability of products mounted on the vehicle 20, such as the battery 21, engine 26, tires, air conditioning system, etc., based on various information about the vehicle 20 acquired by the data acquisition unit 51. Hereinafter, the products mounted on the vehicle 20 are referred to as "vehicle-mounted items." In this embodiment, the vehicle-mounted items correspond to the mounted items of the vehicle 20.

Next, an example of a method for calculating the failure occurrence probability of the battery 21 by the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 will be described.
The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the idle life La and cycle life Ls of the battery 21 based on the transition of the outside air temperature T _out , the transition of the temperature T _B of the battery 21, the transition of the SOC value of the battery 21, and the idle time _{T a of} the battery 21 acquired by the data acquisition unit ₅₁ , and obtains the failure occurrence probability of the battery 21 from these calculated values. Note that the idle time T _a corresponds to the integrated value of the time when the battery 21 is not in use. In this embodiment, the outside air temperature T _out corresponds to data of the environmental factors that affect the failure occurrence probability of the battery 21.

The unused life _La is the life of the battery 21 that shortens due to deterioration even when not in use. There are three factors used in calculating the unused life _La : the unused time, the temperature of the unused environment, and the open circuit voltage. In this embodiment, the unused time, the temperature of the unused environment, and the open circuit voltage correspond to failure factors.

First, the rate of decrease K _time of the discharge capacity of the battery 21 due to the length of the unused time T _a can be calculated by the following formula f1. In the formula f1, " _ks " is a deterioration rate constant, which is a function of the outside air temperature T _out and the SOC value of the battery 21.
K _time = k _s・T _a ^0.5 (f1)
The rate of decrease K _temp of the discharge capacity of the battery 21 due to the temperature of the unused environment can be calculated by the following formula f2 according to the Arrhenius equation. In the formula f2, "A" is a constant, "R" is a gas constant, and "T _out" is the outside air temperature (absolute temperature). Also, "E _a " is the activation energy at the nominal voltage (ΔOCV=0).

K _temp =A・exp(-E _a /(R・T _out )) (f2)
Furthermore, the rate of decrease K _OCV of the discharge capacity of the battery 21 due to the open circuit voltage can be calculated by the following formula f3 by assuming an Arrhenius model in which the activation energy E _a is modulated by the voltage. In the formula f3, "A" is a constant, "R" is a gas constant, and "T _out " is the outside air temperature (absolute temperature). Also, "E _a " is the activation energy at the nominal voltage (ΔOCV=0). Furthermore, "γ" is the field transfer coefficient of the side reaction, and "F" is the Faraday constant.

K _OCV =A・exp(−(E _a −γ・F・ΔOCV)/R・T) (f3)
The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates each of the decline rates K _time , K _temp , and K _OCV based on the outside air temperature T _out , the SOC value of the battery 21, and the unused time T _a of the battery 21 based on the above equations f1 to f3, and also calculates the unused life L _a of the battery 21 from the decline rates K _time , K _temp , and K _OCV using an equation or the like.

On the other hand, the cycle life _Ls is the life of the battery 21 that is shortened due to deterioration with use. There are two factors for calculating the cycle life _Ls : the charge/discharge pattern and the battery temperature. In this embodiment, the charge/discharge pattern and the battery temperature also correspond to failure factors.
The rate of decrease _Kp of the discharge capacity of the battery 21 caused by the charge/discharge pattern is considered in terms of the charge condition and the discharge condition. The charge condition is a condition where the cycle life _Ls is shortened when the SOC value of the battery 21 is high, and can be predicted by the Arrhenius equation, similar to the unused life _La . The discharge condition differs depending on the type of the battery 21 and the usage conditions. For example, the discharge condition is calculated by a verification experiment to determine the relationship between the depth of discharge, the number of discharges, and the discharge time, and a prediction formula is prepared in advance. The rate of decrease _Kp of the discharge capacity of the battery 21 caused by the charge/discharge pattern can be calculated by using a prediction formula according to the charge condition and a prediction formula based on the discharge condition.

The rate of decrease _Kb in the discharge capacity of the battery 21 due to the battery temperature can be approximated by the Arrhenius model in the same way as the shelf life _La , and can be obtained by the following equation f4 using the temperature T _B of the battery 21.
K _b =A・exp(-E _a /(R・T _B )) (f4)
The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates a decrease rate _Kp of the discharge capacity of the battery 21 caused by the charge and discharge pattern based on a predetermined prediction formula. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates a decrease rate _Kb of the discharge capacity of the battery 21 caused by the battery temperature based on the above formula f4 from the temperature _TB of the battery 21. Then, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the cycle life _Ls of the battery 21 from each decrease rate _Kp , _Kb using a formula or the like.

The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates a first failure occurrence probability Pf1 using an arithmetic expression or the like from the thus obtained unused life _La of the battery 21, and calculates a second failure occurrence probability Pf2 using an arithmetic expression or the like from the cycle life _Ls of the battery 21. Each of the failure occurrence probabilities Pf1, Pf2 is expressed in a range from "0[%]" to "100[%]", and the higher the value, the more likely a failure is to occur.

The degree to which each of the factors that cause deterioration of multiple batteries 21 affects the battery varies depending on the product, so by assuming several usage patterns and performing a deterioration evaluation, and calculating the degree to which each operation affects the deterioration based on the deterioration evaluation, it becomes possible to predict failure of the battery 21. The integrated value of the deterioration factors according to the actual usage can be used to calculate the failure rate (rate of decrease in discharge capacity).

The failure determination unit 54 compares the failure occurrence probability of each vehicle-mounted item calculated by the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 with a predetermined value to determine whether or not there is a high possibility that a failure will occur in the target vehicle-mounted item. For example, the failure determination unit 54 determines that there is a high possibility that a failure will occur in the battery 21 based on the fact that either of the failure occurrence probabilities Pf1, Pf2 of the battery 21 calculated by the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 is equal to or greater than the predetermined value α.

The notification unit 55 provides various notifications to the driver of the vehicle 20. For example, the notification unit 55 displays an overview screen 100 shown in FIG. 4 on the touch panel 60. In this embodiment, the overview screen 100 corresponds to the first screen. The overview screen 100 displays icons 101 to 106 of the in-vehicle items whose status can be checked. When the driver touches any of the icons 101 to 106, the notification unit 55 displays a details screen corresponding to the touched icon on the touch panel 60. For example, when the driver touches the "battery" icon 101, the touch operation is detected by the operation detection unit 52 and the notification unit 55 is notified of the fact. At this time, the notification unit 55 displays a details screen 110 corresponding to the battery 21 as shown in FIG. 5 on the touch panel 60.

The details screen 110 allows the user to check the detailed status of each vehicle item. In this embodiment, the details screen 110 corresponds to the second screen. For example, the details screen 110 for the battery 21 shown in FIG. 5 displays the failure occurrence probabilities Pf1, Pf2 of the battery 21 as a percentage. In this way, the details screen 110 displays the failure causes of each vehicle item and the current failure occurrence probability of the failure causes.

When an on-board item that is likely to malfunction is detected, the malfunction determination unit 54 notifies the notification unit 55 of information about the on-board item. At this time, the notification unit 55 notifies the driver of the vehicle 20 that there is an on-board item that is likely to malfunction. For example, when the probability of a tire burst is high, the notification unit 55 displays a notification screen 120 as shown in FIG. 6 on the touch panel 60. The notification screen 120 displays the on-board item with a high malfunction probability, the cause of the malfunction, and a message urging the driver to take action. Note that the notification screen 120 may display an icon that transitions to a detailed screen for the on-board item in question so that detailed information about the on-board item can be confirmed.

The communication unit 56 of the control device 50 shown in FIG. 3 transmits various information about the vehicle 20 to the server device 30 via the communication device 62. For example, the communication unit 56 transmits information about the failure occurrence probability of each vehicle-mounted item calculated by the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 to the server device 30. The communication unit 56 also receives various information transmitted from the server device 30 to the vehicle 20 via the communication device 62.

Next, referring to FIG. 7, the specific steps of the process of calculating and displaying the failure occurrence probability executed by the control device 50 of the vehicle 20 will be described. Note that the process shown in FIG. 7 is started when the operation detection unit 52 detects that the failure occurrence probability confirmation button displayed on the touch panel 60 has been operated to ON.

As shown in FIG. 7, first, the data acquisition unit 51 of the control device 50 acquires various types of information about the vehicle 20 based on the output signals of the sensor unit 40 as the process of step S10.
In step S11 following step S10, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 of the control device 50 calculates the failure occurrence probability of each on-board item of the vehicle 20 based on the information acquired by the data acquisition unit 51. At this time, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the failure occurrence probability for each failure occurrence cause of each on-board item.

In step S<b>12 following step S<b>11 , the communication unit 56 transmits the failure occurrence probability for each failure occurrence cause of each vehicle-mounted item calculated by the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 to the server device 30 .
In step S13 following step S12, the failure determination unit 54 determines whether or not there is an in-vehicle item with a high failure probability. Specifically, the failure determination unit 54 determines whether or not the failure probability of the target in-vehicle item is equal to or greater than a predetermined value, and determines that the failure probability of the target in-vehicle item is high based on the failure probability of the target in-vehicle item being equal to or greater than a predetermined value α. If the failure determination unit 54 determines that there is no in-vehicle item with a high failure probability, it makes a negative determination in the process of step S13 and returns to the process of step S10. On the other hand, if the failure determination unit 54 determines that there is an in-vehicle item with a high failure probability, it makes a positive determination in the process of step S13 and proceeds to the process of step S14.

In step S14, the notification unit 55 notifies the driver of the presence of an in-vehicle item having a high probability of malfunction by displaying the presence of the in-vehicle item on the touch panel 60. Thus, in this embodiment, the notification unit 55 corresponds to a malfunction information notification unit.
As described above, in the control system 10 of the present embodiment, information on the probability of failure of each on-board item of the vehicle 20 is transmitted to the server device 30. The server device 30 performs calculations of insurance premiums and the like based on the information transmitted from the vehicle 20.

Specifically, as shown in FIG. 3, the server device 30 includes a communication device 70, a computing device 80, and a storage device 90.
The communication device 70 is a device for performing two-way wireless communication with the vehicle 20 via a network line.

The storage device 90 stores various information held by the server device 30. The storage device 90 stores, for example, a subscriber database 91. The subscriber database 91 stores the identification number of each user who has insured a vehicle, the vehicle identification number corresponding to each user's identification number, the probability of failure of on-board items of each vehicle, and the insurance premiums of each user, all of which are associated with each other.

The calculation device 80 is mainly composed of a microcomputer having a CPU, ROM, RAM, etc. The calculation device 80 calculates a discount rate for the insurance premium of the vehicle 20 based on the probability of failure of each on-board item transmitted from the vehicle 20, and corrects the insurance premium of the vehicle 20 based on the calculated discount rate. In order to execute such processing, the calculation device 80 has a communication unit 81 and a fee calculation unit 82 as functional components realized by executing a program pre-stored in the ROM.

The communication unit 81 receives various information transmitted from the vehicle 20 via the communication device 62. For example, the communication unit 81 receives information on the probability of failure of each on-board item transmitted from the vehicle 20, and stores the received information on the probability of failure of each on-board item in the subscriber database 91 in association with the identification information of the vehicle 20. In addition, in response to a request from the vehicle 20, the communication unit 81 transmits information on the insurance premium for the vehicle 20 stored in the subscriber database 91 to the vehicle 20 via the communication device 62.

The fee calculation unit 82 calculates the insurance premium for the vehicle 20 based on the failure probability of each on-board item of the vehicle 20 received via the communication unit 81. Specifically, a basic insurance premium is set in advance for the vehicle 20 according to the conditions at the time of insurance enrollment. Information on the basic insurance premium is stored in the subscriber database 91. The fee calculation unit 82 calculates a discount rate using an arithmetic formula, map, etc. from the failure probability of each on-board item of the vehicle 20, and determines the discounted insurance premium by correcting the basic insurance premium based on the calculated discount rate. The fee calculation unit 82 stores the determined discounted insurance premium in the subscriber database 91.

Next, referring to FIG. 8, the specific steps of the process for calculating the insurance premium executed by the calculation device 80 of the server device 30 will be described. Note that the process shown in FIG. 8 is executed when the server device 30 receives information on the probability of failure occurrence of each vehicle-mounted item transmitted from the vehicle 20.

As shown in FIG. 8, the fee calculation unit 82 first calculates a discount rate for the insurance premium based on the probability of failure of each vehicle-mounted item as the process of step S20, and then calculates the discounted insurance premium based on the calculated discount rate as the process of step S21. In addition, as the process of step S22 following step S21, the fee calculation unit 82 transmits information on the discounted insurance premium to the vehicle 20.

In addition, in the vehicle 20, when the communication unit 56 of the control device 50 receives the information on the discounted insurance premium transmitted from the server device 30, it stores this in the storage device 61. For example, when the driver operates the insurance premium confirmation button displayed on the touch panel 60, the notification unit 55 of the control device 50 displays the discounted insurance premium information on the touch panel 60. At this time, as shown in FIG. 9, for example, an insurance premium confirmation screen 150 including information on the current vehicle condition, the discount rate, and the discounted insurance premium is displayed on the touch panel 60. In addition, the vehicle condition is determined from the probability of failure of each vehicle item, and is considered to be good when the probability of failure of each vehicle item is low. Thus, in this embodiment, the notification unit 55 of the vehicle 20 corresponds to the fee information notification unit.

According to the control system 10 for the vehicle 20 of the present embodiment described above, the following actions and advantages (1) to (8) can be obtained.
(1) The control device 50 of the vehicle 20 includes a data acquisition unit 51 that acquires data on a plurality of failure factors that cause the on-board items to fail, and a failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 that calculates the failure occurrence probability of the on-board items according to the failure factors based on the data on the plurality of failure factors. For example, the data acquisition unit 51 acquires failure factors related to the left-standing life _La, such as the left-standing time and the temperature of the left-standing environment, that cause the battery 21 to fail, and failure factors related to the cycle life _Ls , such as the charge/discharge pattern and the battery temperature. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates a first failure occurrence probability Pf1 based on failure factors related to the left-standing life _La , such as the left-standing time and the temperature of the left-standing environment, and calculates a second failure occurrence probability Pf2 based on failure factors related to the cycle life _Ls , such as the charge/discharge pattern and the battery temperature. According to this configuration, since vehicle data of a broken-down vehicle is not required to calculate the failure occurrence probability of the on-board items, it is possible to detect the failure occurrence probability while achieving high versatility.

(2) The data acquisition unit 51 acquires, for example, information on environmental factors, specifically, the outside air temperature T _out , that affect the failure probability of the battery 21, as failure factors of the battery 21. According to this configuration, the failure probability of the battery 21 is calculated taking into account not only internal factors such as the temperature T _B of the battery 21, the SOC value of the battery 21, and the unused time _Ta of the battery 21, but also the external factor of the outside air temperature T _out , so that the failure probability can be calculated with higher accuracy.

(3) The fee calculation unit 82 of the server device 30 calculates the discount rate of the insurance premium based on the probability of the occurrence of a breakdown of the in-vehicle item. With this configuration, it is possible to set a more appropriate insurance premium. The fee calculation unit 82 may use the discount amount instead of the discount rate.
(4) The subscriber database 91 of the server device 30 stores information on the probability of failure of each on-board item of a plurality of vehicles 20. The fee calculation unit 82 calculates a discount rate for the insurance premium based on the probability of failure of the on-board items stored in the subscriber database 91. This configuration makes it possible to set a more appropriate insurance premium.

(5) The notification unit 55 of the vehicle 20 notifies the driver of the vehicle 20 of the insurance premium discount rate and the discounted insurance premium according to the discount rate. With this configuration, the driver of the vehicle 20 can easily recognize the insurance premium discount rate and the discounted insurance premium.
(6) The failure determination unit 54 of the vehicle 20 determines that the failure probability of the on-board item is high based on the failure probability of the on-board item being equal to or greater than the predetermined value α. With this configuration, it is possible to easily determine whether the failure probability of the on-board item is high or not.

(7) The notification unit 55 of the vehicle 20 provides a notification based on the failure occurrence probability of the on-board item as shown in Fig. 5 to the driver of the vehicle 20. This configuration makes it easier for the driver to check the failure occurrence probability of the on-board item.
5, the failure probability of the on-board item is displayed for each of a plurality of failure factors on the detail screen 110. This configuration makes it easier for the driver to recognize the failure probability of the on-board item.

(First Modification)
Next, a first modification of the control system 10 of the first embodiment will be described.
In the process of step S11 shown in Fig. 7, the failure occurrence probability may be calculated based on the usage intensity and usage data of the on-vehicle items. Specifically, as shown in Fig. 10, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 first calculates the usage intensity of each on-vehicle item as the process of step S30 following step S10. Specifically, the usage intensity of each on-vehicle item is calculated based on various information about the vehicle 20 obtained in the process of step S10.

In step S31, which follows step S30, the failure probability calculation unit 53 selects usage data. Specifically, the failure probability calculation unit 53 selects durability data to be used for the failure probability of each on-board item from the durability database 610 for each on-board item stored in the storage device 61 of the vehicle 20, which is shown by the dashed line in FIG. 3. The failure probability calculation unit 53 then calculates the failure probability for each failure cause of each on-board item from the durability of each on-board item and the usage intensity of each on-board item.

Figure 11 shows an example of the operation of the control system 10 of this modified example. As shown in Figure 11 (A), if the vehicle is started at time t10, calculation of the usage intensity of the on-board items is started as shown in Figure 11 (C). The usage intensity of the on-board items increases or decreases depending on the state of the vehicle 20 shown in Figure 11 (B). At this time, the failure occurrence probability of the on-board items changes, for example, as shown in Figure 11 (D). As shown by the two-dot chain line in Figure 11 (D), if the failure occurrence probability becomes equal to or exceeds a predetermined value α at time t11, a notification screen 120 as shown in Figure 6 is displayed on the touch panel 60 at this time t11. The discount rate of the insurance premium and the discounted insurance premium change, for example, as shown in Figures 11 (E) and (F).

(Second Modification)
Next, a second modification of the control system 10 of the first embodiment will be described.
For example, the tires of the vehicle 20 may be used as the on-board item for calculating the failure probability. The failure probability calculation unit 53 calculates the probability of tire puncture or burst from accelerator operation, brake operation, steering operation, tire pressure sensor value, mileage, etc. When the air pressure of a tire is low, the failure probability calculation unit 53 determines that the tire is likely to burst, is likely to puncture, has poor fuel economy, has fast tread wear, is likely to wear unevenly, and has poor ride comfort. In addition, when in-car information related to driving is detected, such as long-term high-speed driving, repeated sudden starts and stops, and sudden direction changes that cause large tire heat generation, the failure probability calculation unit 53 determines that the tire is likely to burst.

(Third Modification)
Next, a third modification of the control system 10 of the first embodiment will be described.
An example of an in-vehicle item for which the failure probability is calculated may be the air conditioning device of the vehicle 20. The failure probability calculation unit 53 calculates the failure probability of the air conditioning device from the usage time of the air conditioning device, the outside air temperature, the set temperature, the cooling water temperature, the number of revolutions of the blower fan motor, etc. If a state in which there is a large difference between the outside air temperature and the set temperature continues, the blower fan motor will continue to operate at high speed for a long period of time, and the intensity of use of the air conditioning device will increase.

(Fourth Modification)
Next, a fourth modification of the control system 10 of the first embodiment will be described.
As the on-board device for calculating the failure probability, it is possible to adopt a battery such as a lead-acid battery that supplies power to various auxiliary devices of the vehicle 20. The failure probability calculation unit 53 calculates the occurrence probability of battery deterioration, dead battery, poor connection of terminals, and leakage from the battery temperature, battery voltage, battery current, usage time, outside air temperature, etc. The battery usage intensity increases because the battery can run out or deteriorate when the lights are kept on while the vehicle is stopped or when the auxiliary devices are operated excessively while driving. In addition, the usage intensity may be calculated from the battery usage status taking into account the entire vehicle system, such as the amount of power used by the motor generator system while driving, the amount of power used by the air conditioner, and the audio equipment, to calculate the battery deterioration, etc.

(Fifth Modification)
Next, a fifth modification of the control system 10 of the first embodiment will be described.
As an on-board item for which the failure occurrence probability is calculated, for example, the alternator of the vehicle 20 may be adopted. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the occurrence probability of a fault in the fan belt, a fault in the brush, a fault in the regulator, a fault in the diode, a coil break, etc., of the alternator.

(Sixth Modification)
Next, a sixth modification of the control system 10 of the first embodiment will be described.
As an on-board item for which the failure occurrence probability is calculated, for example, a starter of the vehicle 20 can be adopted. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the occurrence probability of a relay failure, a connection failure of a terminal portion, a meshing failure, and a failure of an ignition switch of the starter.

(Seventh Modification)
Next, a seventh modification of the control system 10 of the first embodiment will be described.
As an on-board item for calculating the failure occurrence probability, for example, the electric motor of the vehicle 20 can be adopted. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates wear of the rotating part, deterioration of the resin part, etc. from the rotation speed, command torque, internal temperature, etc. of the electric motor.

(Eighth Modification)
Next, an eighth modification of the control system 10 of the first embodiment will be described.
The failure probability calculation unit 53 calculates the failure probability using different signals and formulas for each component. However, the common theoretical parts are as follows.

When calculating the failure occurrence probability, it is possible to consider the following two points of view.
(a) Failure occurrence based on stress intensity and number of stress occurrences.
(b) Failures occur based on the temperature and duration of use.

Regarding (a) above, fatigue failures of each component can be calculated using the same concept as the SN diagram when considering failures of metals, concrete, etc. A failure occurrence curve such as that shown in Figure 12 can be determined at the time of design and manufacturing from the stress intensity given to each component and the number of times the stress occurs. The failure occurrence probability can be calculated from the stress intensity and number of times the stress occurs actually given in the market.

As for (b) above, the denaturation of the material can be estimated from the amount of energy given to the product and the time it takes. If the time it takes for the reaction to progress to a certain level is "L", the following formula f5 can be derived from the Arrhenius chemical reaction equation. In formula f5, "ln" is the natural logarithm, "A" is a constant, "E _a " is the activation energy, "R" is the gas constant, and "T" is the absolute temperature (K).

ln(L)=A+E _a /R・T (f5)
For in-vehicle products, this formula f5 can be written as shown in FIG. 13 since it is estimated based on the product temperature and usage time during market use.
The failure prediction line in the Arrhenius plot can be understood from values obtained in evaluation tests during design and manufacturing, and by comparing it with the actual usage strength and usage time in the market, it is possible to calculate the probability of failure occurring.

Second Embodiment
Next, a second embodiment of the control system 10 will be described. The following mainly describes the differences from the control system 10 of the first embodiment.
14, the control system 10 of the present embodiment differs from the control system 10 of the first embodiment in that the control system 10 of the present embodiment includes a server device 140 separate from the vehicle 20 and the server device 30. Hereinafter, for convenience, the server device 30 will be referred to as the "first server device 30" and the server device 140 will be referred to as the "second server device 140."

As shown in FIG. 15, the second server device 140 includes a communication device 141 , a calculation device 142 , and a storage device 143 .
The communication device 141 is a device for performing two-way wireless communication with the vehicle 20 and the first server device 30 via a network line.

The storage device 143 stores information transmitted from the vehicle 20, for example, information acquired by the data acquisition unit 51 of the vehicle 20. The storage device 143 may also store a durability database 1430 of each on-vehicle item shown in FIG.
The calculation device 142 is mainly configured with a microcomputer having a CPU, ROM, RAM, etc. The calculation device 142 calculates a failure occurrence probability based on information of each on-board item transmitted from the vehicle 20. In order to execute such processing, the calculation device 142 has a communication unit 1420, a failure occurrence probability calculation unit 1421, and a failure determination unit 1422 as functional components realized by executing a program pre-stored in the ROM.

The communication unit 1420 receives various information transmitted from the vehicle 20 and the first server device 30 via the communication device 141. For example, the communication unit 56 of the vehicle 20 transmits various vehicle information acquired by the data acquisition unit 51 to the second server device 140. The communication unit 1420 of the second server device 140 receives the various information transmitted from the vehicle 20 via the communication device 141 and stores it in the storage device 143.

The communication unit 1420 also transmits various information from the second server device 140 to the vehicle 20 and the first server device 30 via the communication device 141. For example, the communication unit 1420 transmits information on the failure occurrence probability of each on-board item calculated by the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 1421 to the vehicle 20 and the first server device 30.

The failure probability calculation unit 1421 calculates the failure probability of each on-board item of the vehicle 20 based on various information about the vehicle 20 stored in the storage device 143. The failure determination unit 1422 determines whether or not each on-board item is likely to fail based on the failure probability of each on-board item calculated by the failure probability calculation unit 1421, and transmits the determination result to the vehicle 20. In the vehicle 20, when a determination result indicating that the on-board item has a high failure probability is transmitted from the second server device 140, the notification unit 55 displays this fact on the touch panel 60. Note that the calculation method of the failure probability and the method of determining failure are the same as those described in the first embodiment, and therefore detailed description thereof will be omitted.

In this way, even if the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 1421 and the failure determination unit 1422 are mounted on a second server device 140 separate from the vehicle 20, it is possible to obtain the same or similar effects as those of the first embodiment. Note that in this embodiment, the second server device 140 corresponds to another device.

Third Embodiment
Next, a third embodiment of the control system 10 will be described. The following mainly describes the differences from the control system 10 of the first embodiment.
The on-vehicle equipment is composed of a plurality of components. The control system 10 of the present embodiment calculates the failure occurrence probability of each of the plurality of components, and then calculates the failure occurrence probability of the on-vehicle equipment based on the calculated failure occurrence probabilities.

For example, as shown in FIG. 16(A), motor 23 is composed of multiple components 23(1), 23(2), ..., 23(m) such as bearings and magnets. Here, "m" is an integer equal to or greater than 2. Failure probability calculation unit 53 calculates the usage strength of motor 23's bearings based on, for example, the change in rotation speed of motor 23 and its rotation duration, and calculates the stress of the bearings from the calculated usage strength. Failure probability calculation unit 53 then calculates the probability of bearing failure from the calculated stress.

Furthermore, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates stress (thermal fatigue) of the magnet of the motor 23 based on the outside air temperature, the temperature of the mounting location of the motor 23, the amount of heat generated by the motor 23, etc. Then, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the failure occurrence probability of the magnet from the calculated stress.
In this manner, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the failure occurrence probabilities Pf10(1), Pf10(2), ..., Pf10(m) of each of the multiple components 23(1), 23(2), ..., 23(m) of the motor 23. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the failure occurrence probability Pf10 of the motor 23 from the calculated failure occurrence probabilities Pf10(1), Pf10(2), ..., Pf10(m). For example, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 uses the largest of the failure occurrence probabilities Pf10(1), Pf10(2), ..., Pf10(m) as the failure occurrence probability Pf10 of the motor 23.

On the other hand, as shown in FIG. 16(B), the battery 21 is composed of multiple components 21(1), 21(2), ..., 21(n) such as electrodes and current collectors. Here, "n" is an integer equal to or greater than 2. The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the stress of the electrodes based on, for example, the current flowing through the electrodes, the voltage applied to the electrodes, and the usage time of the battery 21, and calculates the probability of failure of the electrodes from the calculated stress.

Failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 also calculates the amount of change in gas pressure inside battery 21 based on the characteristic change in the impedance response of battery 21, and calculates the deterioration degree and destruction probability of the collector by combining the calculated amount of change in gas pressure and the number of times battery 21 is charged and discharged. Then, failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the failure occurrence probability of the collector from the calculated deterioration degree and destruction probability of the collector.

After calculating the failure occurrence probabilities Pf20(1), Pf20(2), ..., Pf20(n) of the multiple components 21(1), 21(2), ..., 21(n) of the battery 21 in this manner, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 calculates the failure occurrence probability Pf20 of the battery 21 from the calculated failure occurrence probabilities Pf20(1), Pf20(2), ..., Pf20(n). For example, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 53 uses the largest of the failure occurrence probabilities Pf20(1), Pf20(2), ..., Pf20(n) as the failure occurrence probability Pf20 of the battery 21.

In this manner, in the control system 10 of the vehicle 20 of this embodiment, the failure probability calculation unit 53 calculates the failure probability of each of the multiple parts that make up the on-board equipment, and calculates the failure probability of the on-board equipment based on the failure probability of each of the multiple parts. Specifically, the failure probability calculation unit 53 uses the failure probability of the part with the highest failure probability among the failure probabilities of each of the multiple parts as the failure probability of the on-board equipment. With this configuration, it is possible to calculate the failure probability of the on-board equipment with higher accuracy.

The failure probability calculation unit 53 may calculate the failure probability of the vehicle component based on the failure probability of each of the multiple parts and the availability of each of the multiple parts. For example, when it is difficult to obtain a specific part, specifically when it takes several days to obtain the specific part, it is necessary to recognize the failure of the specific part as soon as possible. Therefore, the failure probability calculation unit 53 may correct the failure probability of the part to be larger as the availability of the part becomes more difficult. For example, the failure probability calculation unit 53 calculates a weighting coefficient based on the availability of the part based on a map or the like. In this map, the weighting coefficient is set to be larger as the availability of the part becomes more difficult. After calculating the failure probability of the part, the failure probability calculation unit 53 multiplies the failure probability by the weighting coefficient to calculate the final failure probability. With this configuration, it is possible to calculate the failure probability taking into account the availability of the part.

<Other embodiments>
The above embodiment can also be implemented in the following manner.
The fee calculation unit 82 of the server device 30 may change the discount rate or the discount amount based on at least one of the type of the on-vehicle item and the failure factor corresponding to the on-vehicle item.

- When the driver performs an operation on the vehicle 20 that increases the probability of a malfunction occurring in an on-board item, the notification unit 55 of the vehicle 20 may notify the driver via the touch panel 60 or the like that the operation has been performed. With this configuration, it is possible to warn the driver not to perform an operation that increases the probability of a malfunction occurring.

When calculating the usage intensity of each vehicle-mounted item from the driving data of the vehicle 20 and setting the insurance premium, it is possible to use signals such as those shown in FIGS.
The communication unit 81 of the server device 30 may transmit information on the failure occurrence probability stored in the subscriber database 91 to a business operator. The business operator is a company that manages the inventory of supplies, dispatches tow trucks, etc. In this case, the communication unit 81 corresponds to the business operator communication unit.

The control device 50 and the arithmetic device 80, 142 described in the present disclosure, and the control method thereof, may be realized by one or more dedicated computers provided by configuring a processor and a memory programmed to execute one or more functions embodied in a computer program. The control device 50 and the arithmetic device 80, 142 described in the present disclosure, and the control method thereof, may be realized by a dedicated computer provided by configuring a processor including one or more dedicated hardware logic circuits. The control device 50 and the arithmetic device 80, 142 described in the present disclosure, and the control method thereof, may be realized by one or more dedicated computers configured by a combination of a processor and a memory programmed to execute one or more functions and a processor including one or more hardware logic circuits. The computer program may be stored in a computer-readable non-transient tangible recording medium as instructions executed by the computer. The dedicated hardware logic circuit and the hardware logic circuit may be realized by a digital circuit including multiple logic circuits, or an analog circuit.

- This disclosure is not limited to the specific examples above. Design modifications to the specific examples above made by a person skilled in the art are also included within the scope of this disclosure as long as they have the features of this disclosure. The elements of each of the specific examples described above, as well as their arrangement, conditions, shapes, etc., are not limited to those exemplified and can be modified as appropriate. The elements of each of the specific examples described above can be combined in different ways as appropriate, as long as no technical contradictions arise.

10: Control system 20: Vehicle (moving body)
50: Control device (computer)
51: Data acquisition unit 53, 1421: Fault occurrence probability calculation unit 54, 1422: Fault determination unit 55: Notification unit (charge information notification unit, fault information notification unit)
81: Communication unit (communication unit for business use)
82: Fee calculation unit 91: Subscriber database 140: Server device (separate device)

Claims (8)

A data acquisition unit (51) for acquiring data on a plurality of failure factors that may cause failure of equipment mounted on a moving body (20);
a failure occurrence probability calculation unit (53, 1421) for calculating a failure occurrence probability of the on-board equipment corresponding to the plurality of failure factors based on the data of the plurality of failure factors ;
The failure occurrence probability calculation unit calculates the failure occurrence probability of each of a plurality of components constituting the on-board equipment, and calculates the failure occurrence probability of the on-board equipment based on the failure occurrence probability of each of the plurality of components and the availability of each of the plurality of components.
Vehicle control system. The control system for a moving body according to claim 1 , further comprising a failure determination unit (54, 1422) that determines that the probability of failure occurrence of the on-board equipment is high based on the probability of failure occurrence of the on-board equipment being equal to or higher than a predetermined value. A data acquisition unit (51) for acquiring data on a plurality of failure factors that may cause failure of equipment mounted on a moving body (20);
A failure occurrence probability calculation unit (53, 1421) for calculating a failure occurrence probability of the on-board equipment corresponding to the plurality of failure factors based on the data of the plurality of failure factors;
and a fee calculation unit (82) for calculating a discount rate or a discount amount of the insurance premium based on the probability of failure of the on-board equipment.
Vehicle control system. The system further includes a database (91) in which information on the failure occurrence probability of each of the mounted items of a plurality of moving bodies is stored,
The control system for a moving body according to claim 3 , wherein the fee calculation unit calculates a discount rate or a discount amount of the insurance premium based on information on the probability of occurrence of failure of the on-board equipment stored in the database. 5. The control system for a mobile body according to claim 3 or 4, further comprising a fee information notification unit (55) that notifies the driver of the mobile body of the insurance premium discount rate or the discount amount, and the discounted insurance premium according to the discount rate or the discount amount . The control system for a moving body according to claim 3 , wherein the charge calculation unit changes the discount rate or the discount amount based on at least one of a type of the on-board equipment and a failure factor corresponding to the on-board equipment. A computer ( 50 ),
Acquiring data on a plurality of failure factors that may cause failures in equipment mounted on the moving body (20);
Calculating a failure occurrence probability of the on-board equipment corresponding to the plurality of failure factors based on the data of the plurality of failure factors;
Calculating the failure occurrence probability for each of a plurality of components constituting the on-board equipment;
Calculating the failure occurrence probability of the on-board equipment based on the failure occurrence probability of each of the plurality of parts and the availability of each of the plurality of parts.
program. A computer (50),
acquiring data on a plurality of failure factors that may cause failure of equipment mounted on the moving body (20);
Calculating a failure occurrence probability of the on-board equipment corresponding to the plurality of failure factors based on the data of the plurality of failure factors;
Calculating the discount rate or discount amount of the insurance premium based on the probability of failure of the on-board equipment
Program.

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