JP7696804B2 - New business simulation program - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a new business simulation program for evaluating greenhouse gas emissions associated with a new business.

Companies are increasingly expected to achieve sustainable growth. One aspect of this is the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with business operations. As a result, business evaluation methods that assess the impact of business plans on the power grid have become known (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2017-97582 A

Given this background, when implementing a new business, it is necessary to thoroughly consider not only its profitability but also its greenhouse gas emissions in advance. However, there are a wide variety of parameters that affect greenhouse gas emissions, making it difficult to calculate predicted values for each new business. In particular, when planning to continue implementing the business over a certain period of time, it is extremely difficult to predict and evaluate the changes in emissions over that period.

The present invention was made to solve these problems, and provides a simulation program that can easily and accurately predict the changes in greenhouse gas emissions associated with the implementation of new projects.

In one aspect of the present invention, a new business simulation program causes a computer to execute the following steps: a reception step for receiving the designation of the industry to which the new business to be simulated belongs and an input of a business plan including the planned duration and business scale of the new business; a read step for reading relevant statistics including statistics corresponding to the industry from a reference table that contains at least Scope 1 and Scope 2 statistics regarding greenhouse gas emissions by industry, which is created based on a business report published by a business operator; and an output step for calculating and outputting the trend in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the implementation of the new business based on the relevant statistics and the business plan.

The present invention allows for a simple yet accurate prediction of the trends in greenhouse gas emissions associated with the implementation of a new business, allowing companies to appropriately evaluate one aspect of whether or not to adopt the new business.

1 is a diagram showing an environment in which a new business simulation program according to an embodiment of the present invention is used. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of an application server. 13 is an example of a user input screen. 13 is an example of a confirmation screen for a simulation target. 13 is an example of a business report summary table. 13 is an example of an industry type table. 13 is an example of an output screen. FIG. 11 is a flow diagram showing a processing procedure of a simulation.

The present invention will be described below through embodiments of the invention, but the invention according to the claims is not limited to the following embodiments. Furthermore, not all of the configurations described in the embodiments are necessarily essential as means for solving the problem.

Figure 1 is a diagram showing an environment in which the new business simulation program according to this embodiment is used. The new business simulation program according to this embodiment (hereinafter simply referred to as the "simulation program") is executed by an application server 100, which is a server of a company considering a new business or a company providing an application service. The application server 100 is connected to a network 900 such as the Internet or an intranet, and transmits and receives information via the network 900 between a mobile terminal 200 such as a user's smartphone and a PC terminal 300 such as a desktop personal computer.

In this embodiment, an example will be described in which the PC terminal 300 operates in conjunction with a simulation program executed in the application server 100. That is, a user operates the PC terminal 300 to cause the application server 100 to execute a simulation program. The PC terminal 300 is composed of a main body 310, a display monitor 320, an input device 330, etc. When the user operates the input device 330, such as a keyboard or mouse, to input various items, the user can check the simulation results calculated by the application server 100 by displaying them on the display monitor 320.

In this embodiment, an example is described in which the simulation program is executed by the application server 100, but the simulation program may be executed by an individual user terminal such as a mobile terminal 200 or a PC terminal 300. In this case, the user terminal on which the simulation program is executed does not need to be connected to the network 900.

Figure 2 is a diagram showing the hardware configuration of the application server 100. The application server 100 is mainly composed of a calculation unit 110, a storage unit 120, and a communication unit 130. The calculation unit 110 is a processor (CPU: Central Processing Unit) that controls the application server 100 and executes programs. The processor may be configured to work in conjunction with a calculation processing chip such as an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) or a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit). In particular, the calculation unit 110 executes various processes related to the simulation of a new business according to a simulation program stored in the storage unit 120 or sent from an external device.

The storage unit 120 is a non-volatile storage medium, and is configured, for example, by a HDD (Hard Disk Drive). In addition to programs that execute the control and processing of the application server 100, the storage unit 120 can store various parameter values, functions, lookup tables, trained models, and the like used for control and calculation. The storage unit 120 particularly stores an industry-specific table 121. As will be described in detail later, the industry-specific table 121 is a lookup table that includes at least Scope 1 and Scope 2 statistics regarding greenhouse gas emissions by industry, created based on business reports published by businesses.

The storage unit 120 may be configured with multiple pieces of hardware. For example, a storage medium for storing a program and a storage medium for storing a database, etc. may be configured with separate pieces of hardware. Furthermore, the storage unit 120 does not have to be configured to be built into the application server 100, and may be, for example, a storage device connected to the network 900.

The communication unit 130 is responsible for connecting to the network 900 and transmitting data to and from external devices, and is composed of, for example, a LAN unit. The communication unit 130 transmits and receives information to and from the network 900 under the control of the calculation unit 110.

The calculation unit 110 also serves as a functional calculation unit that executes various calculations in response to the processing instructed by the simulation program. The calculation unit 110 can function as an input acquisition unit 111 and a simulation unit 112. The input acquisition unit 111 acquires input information entered into a user terminal, such as the industry to which the new business that is the subject of the simulation belongs, and a business plan including the planned duration and business scale of the new business, via the network 900. The simulation unit 112 calculates the trends in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the implementation of the new business based on the input information acquired by the input acquisition unit 111 and related statistical values read from the industry table 121, and outputs the calculated results to the user terminal. Specific processing will be described later.

Next, the processing procedure of the simulation program executed by the application server 100 will be explained step by step using an example of a display screen displayed on the display monitor 320 of the PC terminal 300. Figure 3 is an example of a user input screen displayed on the display monitor 320.

When the user executes the simulation program, an application window 401 containing the title of the program, "New Business Simulator," is displayed. An input window 402 is superimposed on the application window 401, and the input window 402, together with the title "Please enter information about the new business," prompts the user to input various information about the new business that is the subject of the simulation.

Specifically, the input window 402 accepts input of the new business name, the industry to which the new business belongs, and information on the business plan. The user enters, for example, "floating solar power generation" via the input device 330 into the input box 411 provided next to the item name "new business name." The user also expands the selection box 412 and selects "civil engineering" as the industry to which "floating solar power generation" belongs. Various industries are pre-prepared as options in the selection box 412.

The user further inputs a business plan for "floating solar power generation." Here, the business plan is configured to accept input of the planned duration of the business and expected sales. Specifically, the user inputs when the business is scheduled to start (immediate) and end (farthest) as the planned duration, and how much the near-term amount and how much the farthest amount are as expected sales.

In this embodiment, the expected sales are accepted as the business scale, but other parameters expressing the business scale may also be accepted. For example, operating profit may be accepted, and further, the investment amount and number of employees may be accepted as auxiliary parameters. The input format is also not limited to this, and it may be possible to input expected sales for each fiscal year, or to input the period during which the business will be suspended.

When the user moves the cursor 420 over the cancel button 422 and presses it, the entered information is cleared and re-entering becomes possible. On the other hand, when the user moves the cursor 420 over the OK button 421 and presses it, the entered new business information is confirmed and sent to the application server 100. The input acquisition unit 111 of the application server 100 acquires the new business information via the communication unit 130. If there are other new businesses that the user wishes to evaluate together, the user can repeat this process to input each piece of new business information. The input acquisition unit 111 acquires each piece of entered new business information via the communication unit 130.

Figure 4 shows an example of a confirmation screen for new businesses to be simulated. In the application window 401, along with the title "Do you want to simulate the following new businesses?", a list of each new business information entered via the input window 402 is displayed. In the example shown, a list is shown in which information has been entered about four new businesses (floating solar power generation/power transmission system/wind power generation/offshore solar power generation).

When the user moves the cursor 420 to the cancel button 422 and presses it, the screen transitions to a screen that accepts the input of additional new business or the deletion of new business information that has already been entered. On the other hand, when the user moves the cursor 420 to the OK button 421 and presses it, a signal requesting the start of a simulation calculation is sent to the application server 100.

When the simulation unit 112 of the application server 100 receives the start request signal via the communication unit 130, it executes calculation processing for the simulation based on the input information acquired by the input acquisition unit 111 and the related statistical values read from the industry-specific table 121. The main steps of the calculation processing are described below.

Figure 5 is an example of a business report summary table. The business report summary table is a summary table of greenhouse gas emissions and business performance compiled from business reports published by actual businesses.

The business report summary table used in this embodiment includes the business name, industry, scope 1, scope 2, sales, and operating profit information for each business that has published information. The industry indicates the main business type run by the business, and one is selected from multiple industries that are preset. The multiple industries that are preset here correspond to the industry options that can be selected in the input window 402.

Scope 1 represents direct greenhouse gas emissions by the business itself, and includes, for example, greenhouse gases emitted during fuel combustion and industrial processes. Scope 2 represents indirect emissions associated with the use of electricity, heat, etc. supplied by other companies, and the amount can be reduced, for example, by using electricity derived from renewable energy. Note that in this embodiment, scopes 1 and 2 are the subject of the simulation, but in addition to scopes 1 and 2, scope 3 also exists as supply chain emissions. Scope 3 refers to all other indirect emissions other than scopes 1 and 2, and represents, for example, emissions emitted in procurement relationships located upstream of corporate activities and downstream after shipping. The simulation program may calculate up to scope 3.

The sales revenue and operating profits each represent the amounts for one year in a certain fiscal year. The calculation unit 110 may obtain such business report summary tables from the website of the issuing organization, or may create them by collecting business reports individually from the website of each business. They may also be created based on data entered by an administrator or the like based on the business reports of each business.

From the business report summary table thus acquired, the calculation unit 110 creates an industry table to be used as a reference table in the simulation calculation. FIG. 6 is an example of the industry table 121. The industry table includes statistical values and averaged profit margins for scopes 1 and 2 for each industry. The industry set in the industry table corresponds to the industry in the business report summary table.

The statistical values for scope 1 and 2 used in the industry table are greenhouse gas emissions per unit of sales in that industry. Here, emissions (t) per 1 million yen in sales are used. For example, when calculating the statistical values for scope 1 for the industry "managed services", the calculation unit 110 first extracts all businesses with the industry attribute of "managed services" from the business report summary table. It then calculates the total sales and total scope 1 emissions of the extracted businesses. Furthermore, it calculates the emissions per 1 million yen in sales from these and sets them as the statistical values for scope 1. The statistical values for scope 2 are calculated in the same way.

The profit margin is the ratio of operating profit to sales in that industry. For example, when calculating the profit margin for the industry "management services", the calculation unit 110 extracts all businesses with the industry attribute of "management services" from the business report summary table in the same manner as described above. Then, it calculates the total sales and total operating profit of the extracted businesses. Furthermore, it divides the total operating profit by the total sales to obtain the profit margin.

The calculation unit 110 compiles the calculated statistical values and averaged profit margins for scopes 1 and 2 for each industry as a reference table, and stores the reference table as industry-specific table 121 in the storage unit 120. Note that, although an example in which the calculation unit 110 creates industry-specific table 121 from a business report summary table has been described here, it is also possible to acquire one created on an external server, etc.

When the OK button 421 in FIG. 4 is pressed and the application server 100 acquires a start request signal requesting the start of a simulation calculation, the simulation unit 112 executes calculation processing for the simulation by referring to the input information acquired by the input acquisition unit 111 and the related statistical values (statistical values of scopes 1 and 2, profit margin) read from the industry table 121. Specifically, the calculation processing is executed mainly according to the following procedure.

For the kth new business No. k among the new businesses entered, the industry to which it belongs is confirmed. Then, the relevant statistical values corresponding to that industry are read from the industry table 121. For example, for business No. 1 "Floating solar power generation" in the example of FIG. 4, it is confirmed that the industry to which it belongs is "civil engineering", and the scope 1 statistical value "0.836", the scope 2 statistical value "0.504", and the profit margin "8.8%" are read from the industry "civil engineering" in the industry table 121.

Next, calculate the expected sales for each year during the sales period of new business No. k. Here, the expected sales for each year are calculated by linear interpolation from the most recent sales and the furthest sales. For example, for business No. 1 "Floating solar power generation," the sales period is 10 years from 2021 to 2030, and sales in 2021 are assumed to be 3.5 billion yen, and sales in 2030 are assumed to be 0 yen. Therefore, if the expected sales for each year are calculated by linear interpolation, sales in 2022 will be approximately 3.11 billion yen, sales in 2023 will be approximately 2.72 billion yen, etc.

Once the expected sales for each fiscal year are calculated, the greenhouse gas emissions for Scope 1 and Scope 2 are calculated according to the expected sales. In this embodiment, the statistical values for Scope 1 and 2 are greenhouse gas emissions per 1 million yen in sales, so by dividing the expected sales for each year by 1 million and multiplying them by the respective statistical values, the greenhouse gas emissions for Scope 1 and Scope 2 for that fiscal year can be calculated. For example, for Business No. 1 "Floating Solar Power Generation," the sales for fiscal year 2021 are 3.5 billion yen, so by dividing 3.5 billion by 1 million and multiplying it by the statistical value for Scope 1, 0.836, the expected greenhouse gas emissions for Scope 1 in fiscal year 2021 can be calculated to be 2,926 tons. Similarly, the greenhouse gas emissions for Scope 2 can be calculated to be 1,764 tons.

In this way, for each new business subject to the simulation, the scope 1 and scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions are calculated for each fiscal year during the assumed sales period. Then, for new businesses in the same fiscal year, the values calculated for each are added together. For example, in the example of Figure 4, sales are assumed for business No. 1 "Floating solar power generation" and business No. 2 "Electricity transmission system" for fiscal year 2025. Therefore, the total scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions for fiscal year 2025 will be the sum of the scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions calculated from business No. 1 and the scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions calculated from business No. 2.

In this way, it is possible to calculate the scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions and scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions for each fiscal year during the sales period of the new business being simulated. In other words, it is possible to simulate the changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the implementation of the new business.

In this embodiment, in addition to the trend in greenhouse gas emissions, the trend in sales and profit margins during the sales period of the new business is also simulated. As described above, the expected sales for each year during the sales period of new business No. k are calculated by linear interpolation from the most recent sales and the furthest sales. Therefore, by adding up the expected sales calculated for each new business for the same year, the total sales for each year during the sales period can be calculated. In other words, the trend in sales for the new business can be simulated.

In addition, the operating profit for each year can be calculated by multiplying the sales calculated for each new business for each year by the profit margin read from the industry table 121. Then, for the same year between new businesses, the profit margin for each year during the sales period can be calculated by dividing the total sum of the operating profits by the total sum of the sales. In other words, the change in the profit margin for the new businesses during the sales period can be simulated.

The simulation unit 112 outputs the thus calculated trends in greenhouse gas emissions, sales, and profit margins as simulation results to the PC terminal 300 via the communication unit 130. The PC terminal 300 prepares the received simulation results into an output screen including, for example, graphs, and displays them on the display monitor 320.

Figure 7 shows an example of an output screen. As shown, an application window 401 displaying the title "Simulation Results" includes two output windows 403.

The first output window 403 displays a graph showing the trend in greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, the horizontal axis is fiscal year and the vertical axis is greenhouse gas emissions (kt), and the emissions for each fiscal year are represented by a stacked bar graph so that the breakdown of Scope 1 and Scope 2 can be visually confirmed. Transition buttons 424 are also provided within the output window 403, and for example, if there is a year beyond the year on the far right, a right arrow button is displayed that can be pressed. By aligning cursor 420 with the right arrow and pressing it, the user can scroll the graph so that years beyond the year on the far right are displayed.

The second output window 403 displays a graph showing the trends in sales and profit margins. Specifically, the horizontal axis is fiscal year, the left vertical axis is sales (million yen), and the right vertical axis is profit margins (%), with sales for each fiscal year being represented by a bar graph and profit margins being represented by a line graph. As with the first output window 403, transition buttons 424 are also provided in the second output window 403, allowing the user to scroll the graph left and right.

In this embodiment, the trend in the predicted profit from the implementation of the new business is indirectly shown by showing the trend in sales and profit margin, but the sales for each fiscal year may be multiplied by the profit margin for that year to calculate the operating profit, and this trend may be shown as the trend in the predicted profit. Also, in this embodiment, the respective trends are expressed using two output windows 403 in consideration of visibility, but the method of expressing the simulation results is not limited to this example, and the results may be expressed together in one output window 403, or other visual effects such as coloring or animation may be used.

Here, we summarize the process flow that the simulation program executes on the application server 100. Figure 8 is a flow diagram showing the processing procedure that is processed by the application server 100. Note that the following flow does not explain all the processes that have been explained so far, but only explains the main processes.

In step S101, the input acquisition unit 111 accepts the specification of the industry to which the new business to be simulated belongs, and the input of a business plan including the planned duration and business scale of the new business. Specifically, this input information entered at the user terminal is acquired via the network 900. The input acquisition unit 111 passes the acquired input information to the simulation unit 112. Once all input information to be simulated has been acquired and a request signal to start simulation calculations has been received from the user terminal, the process proceeds to step S102.

In step S102, the simulation unit 112 reads out relevant statistics corresponding to the industry to which the new business to be simulated belongs from the industry table 121 stored in the memory unit 120. The relevant statistics include the scope 1 and scope 2 statistics and profit margins for each industry.

The simulation unit 112 proceeds to step S103, and calculates the greenhouse gas emissions for Scope 1 and Scope 2 for each year during the sales period of the new business that is the subject of the simulation as described above. It also calculates the sales and profit margin for each year. Then, in step S104, these calculated simulation results are converted into data as trends in greenhouse gas emissions and trends in projected profits, and output to the user terminal. When the output process is complete, the series of processes ends.

Next, a first modified example of the above embodiment will be described. In the above embodiment, the statistical values for scopes 1 and 2 for each industry in the industry table were calculated by aggregating the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from each business listed in the business report summary table, without considering what type of energy was used by each business. However, if the breakdown of the types of energy used by each business is disclosed, the statistical values for scopes 1 and 2 may also include information on what energy was consumed to calculate the values.

If the industry table contains statistics for scopes 1 and 2 including breakdown information by energy type, it is possible to calculate trends in greenhouse gas emissions that take into account the energy type used in the new business. Specifically, input window 402 accepts input of the energy type to be used as an item in the business plan for the new business. For example, a plan to use 30% of the electricity procured from outside as hydroelectric power or 50% of fuel as biodiesel can be entered, and this information is accepted.

The simulation unit 112 calculates greenhouse gas emissions taking into account the difference between the energy type used in the new business and the energy types in the statistical values for scopes 1 and 2. For example, if the statistical value for scope 2 was calculated assuming 100% use of electricity generated by thermal power plants, and the new business plans to use 30% electricity derived from hydroelectric power plants, the statistical value for scope 2 can be multiplied by 0.7 to calculate the emissions for scope 2.

In addition, since the costs incurred vary depending on the type of energy used, it is a good idea to associate the corresponding cost information with each energy type. If such cost information is associated, it is possible to calculate sales and profit margins according to the type of energy used.

Next, a second variation of the above embodiment will be described. In the above embodiment, only new businesses were the subject of the simulation. However, for a company to achieve sustainable growth, it is necessary to evaluate new businesses while also taking into account their relationship with existing businesses. Therefore, a simulation of the new business is performed taking into account the past performance of existing businesses and future forecasts.

Specifically, first, the input acquisition unit 111 acquires the actual values of scope 1 and scope 2 in the existing business to date and the future business plan for the existing business. The actual values of scope 1 and scope 2 to date are acquired, for example, from a management server that manages the existing business. Furthermore, the future business plan is acquired by accepting user input on the user terminal, in the same way as the business plan for the new lesson.

The simulation unit 112 also calculates the future trend in greenhouse gas emissions for existing businesses. However, for existing businesses, the calculation is made by referring to the actual values of scope 1 and scope 2 for the existing business to date, rather than by referring to the statistical values of scope 1 and scope 2 in the industry table. The simulation unit 112 outputs the trend in greenhouse gas emissions calculated in this way, together with the trend in greenhouse gas emissions for the new business. When displayed as a graph on the user terminal, the trend for the existing business and the trend for the new business may be displayed together, or each may be displayed separately.

The simulation unit 112 can also calculate and output trends in sales and profit margins, taking into account existing businesses. In this way, by outputting trends in new businesses along with existing businesses, the user can more accurately evaluate the impact that new businesses have on corporate management.

In the present embodiment described above, including the modified examples, it is assumed that the application server 100 executes the simulation program as shown in FIG. 1, but the environment in which the simulation program is executed is not limited to this. For example, the simulation program may be executed in a PC terminal 300, which is a user terminal. In this case, the parameters and lookup tables used in the calculation may be obtained from an external device via the network 900.

A simulation program can also be implemented in a format that accepts input for each item in input cells set up in a spreadsheet program, for example, and outputs the calculation results for that input in output cells. In this case, a graph can be displayed by referencing the values in the output cells. Even with such a simple format, a certain level of simulation results can be expected.

As described above, by using the new business simulation program according to this embodiment, the transition of greenhouse gas emissions accompanying the implementation of a new business can be predicted easily and accurately, so that companies can appropriately evaluate one aspect of the adoption of the new business. In particular, greenhouse gas emissions can be affected by many parameters, so it was practically difficult to calculate them one by one while reflecting them all. However, in this embodiment, by dividing the business into industries and creating and referencing an industry-specific table backed by past performance, it is possible to easily obtain relatively accurate results. In addition, since greenhouse gas emissions can be predicted by scope as a breakdown, it is easy to plan a course of action for reduction efforts. In addition, in addition to the transition of greenhouse gas emissions, profit forecasts for the business can also be grasped, so new businesses can be appropriately evaluated from the perspective of corporate growth.

To output the simulation results more simply, greenhouse gas emissions may be output collectively by fiscal year, rather than being divided by scope. In addition, if a more accurate simulator is separately available, the simulation program may be configured not to output the trends in projected profits due to the implementation of new businesses.

100...Application server, 110...Calculation unit, 111...Input acquisition unit, 112...Simulation unit, 120...Storage unit, 121...Industry-specific table, 130...Communication unit, 200...Mobile terminal, 300...PC terminal, 310...Main unit, 320...Display monitor, 330...Input device, 401...Application window, 402...Input window, 403...Output window, 411...Input box, 412...Selection box, 420...Cursor, 421...OK button, 422...Cancel button, 424...Transition button, 900...Network

Claims (5)

A receiving step of receiving a designation of an industry to which a new business to be simulated belongs and an input of a business plan including a planned duration and business scale of the new business;
A reading step of reading out relevant statistics including the statistics corresponding to the business type from a reference table including at least Scope 1 statistics representing direct emissions by the business itself and Scope 2 statistics representing indirect emissions associated with the use of energy supplied by other companies , the statistics being prepared based on business reports published by the business and related to greenhouse gas emissions by business type;
and an output step of calculating and outputting the transition of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the implementation of the new business based on the related statistics and the business plan. The new business simulation program according to claim 1, wherein the output step calculates and outputs the trends in the greenhouse gas emissions divided into at least the scope 1 and the scope 2. The reading step reads out a profit margin corresponding to the business type from the reference table as one of the related statistical values;
3. The new business simulation program according to claim 1, wherein the output step calculates and outputs a transition of a predicted profit due to the implementation of the new business based on the related statistical value and the business plan. The receiving step receives an energy type to be used as one of the business plans,
4. The new business simulation program according to claim 3, wherein the output step calculates and outputs the trends in the greenhouse gas emissions and the trends in the projected profits based on the relevant statistics and the business plan. A step of acquiring scope 1 and scope 2 actual values of greenhouse gas emissions in existing businesses and future business plans of the existing businesses is executed by a computer;
5. The new business simulation program according to claim 1, wherein the output step calculates and outputs a transition of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the implementation of the existing business and the new business.

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