JP7829458B2 - Simulation device, simulation method, simulation program, and power system - Google Patents

Description

This invention relates to a simulation device, a simulation method, a simulation program, and a power system.

Conventionally, technologies for predicting information such as electricity prices in power systems are known. For example, the optimization support system described in Patent Document 1 includes an electricity meter, a power consumption optimization system, an electricity price forecasting system, an electricity supply and demand balance understanding system, an electricity supply and demand balance adjustment system, and a transmission reporting system, and performs simulations of electricity prices and other factors to support electricity trading between electricity suppliers and consumers. The market management system described in Patent Document 2 includes a wholesale electricity trading market database, an operational standards database, a supply and demand planning department, and a supply and demand planning database, and formulates a balance of interests among multiple related players. The electricity trading system described in Patent Document 3 creates strategies for electricity consumers and electricity suppliers in the wholesale electricity trading market by predicting market prices based on data such as electricity demand data, power generation data, power generation cost data, consumer strategy parameters, and supplier strategy parameters. The electricity trading decision method described in Patent Document 4 includes consumer data and business operator data, predicts electricity demand, and creates an electricity consumer portfolio that maximizes profits according to the risk tolerated by the electricity company.

Japanese Patent Publication No. 2001-216384 Japanese Patent Publication No. 2019-139527 Japanese Patent Publication No. 2007-200053 Japanese Patent Publication No. 2005-176495

The technologies described in Patent Documents 1 to 4 above predict market prices or electricity demand and consider the benefits or drawbacks for power generators or consumers. However, the technologies described in Patent Documents 1 to 4 do not consider the impact on the entire electricity system, including power generators, retail electricity providers, consumers, and transmission and distribution companies, when the electricity system regulations are changed. Therefore, the technologies described in Patent Documents 1 to 4 cannot evaluate changes in the electricity system regulations by considering the impact on the entire electricity system when the regulations are changed.

Furthermore, the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system for renewable energy was established in 2012 with the aim of accelerating the spread of renewable energy. This has led to the construction of residential solar power panels and solar power plants, and the decentralization of power generation facilities. However, the technologies described in Patent Documents 1 to 4 have the problem of not considering decentralized power generation facilities. Therefore, the technologies described in Patent Documents 1 to 4 cannot evaluate the institutional changes to the power system while considering distributed power sources.

This disclosure is made in view of these circumstances and aims to provide a simulation device, simulation method, simulation program, and power system that can evaluate regulatory changes when considering changes to the power system.

This disclosure has been made to solve the above-mentioned problems, and one aspect of this disclosure is a simulation device comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system; a variable modification unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the regulations of the power system; and a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the regulations of the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable modification unit, wherein the variable information is information indicating the ratio in power trading among market entrants, the variable modification unit receives information indicating that the ratio in power trading has been changed as the variable information, and the simulation unit calculates the change in the rates related to power trading among market entrants with respect to the ratio in power trading .
Another aspect of this disclosure is a simulation device comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system; a variable modification unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the regulations of the power system; and a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the regulations of the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable modification unit, wherein the variable information is information indicating the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in the power system, the variable modification unit receives information indicating that the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges has been changed as the variable information, and the simulation unit calculates the change in charges related to electricity trading for market entrants with respect to the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges .
Another aspect of this disclosure is a simulation device comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system; a variable change unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the regulations of the power system; and a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the regulations of the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable change unit, wherein the simulation unit calculates the range of positive and negative fluctuations in the impact on power trading among market entrants and determines the risk of changes to the regulations of the power system based on the range of fluctuations .

Another aspect of the present disclosure is a simulation method comprising the steps of: obtaining power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system; receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the power system; and calculating the impact on the market entrants when the variables related to the system of the power system change, wherein the variable information is information indicating the ratio in power trading among the market entrants, and receiving information indicating that the ratio in power trading has been changed as the variable information, and calculating the change in the price for power trading among the market entrants with respect to the ratio in power trading .
Another aspect of the present disclosure is a simulation method comprising the steps of: obtaining power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system; receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the power system; and calculating the impact on market entrants when the variables related to the system of the power system change, wherein the variable information is information indicating the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in the power system, and the computer receives information indicating that the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges has been changed as the variable information, and calculates the change in charges for electricity trading by market entrants with respect to the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges.
Another aspect of the present disclosure is a simulation method comprising the steps of: acquiring power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system; receiving variable information indicating variables related to the regulations of the power system; and calculating the impact on market entrants when the variables related to the regulations of the power system change, based on the power system information and the variable information; calculating the range of positive and negative fluctuations of the impact on electricity trading by the market entrants; and determining the risk of changes to the regulations of the power system based on the range of fluctuations .

Another aspect of this disclosure is a simulation program that causes a computer to perform the steps of: acquiring power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system; receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the power system; and calculating the impact on the market entrants when the variables related to the system of the power system change , wherein the variable information is information indicating the ratio in power trading among the market entrants, and the computer receives information indicating that the ratio in power trading has been changed as the variable information, and calculates the change in the price of power trading among the market entrants with respect to the ratio in power trading .
Another aspect of this disclosure is a simulation program that causes a computer to perform the steps of: acquiring power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system; receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the power system; and calculating the impact on market entrants when the variables related to the system of the power system change , wherein the variable information is information indicating the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in the power system, and the computer receives information indicating that the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges has been changed as the variable information, and calculates the change in charges related to electricity trading for market entrants with respect to the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges .
Another aspect of this disclosure is a simulation program that causes a computer to perform the steps of: acquiring power system information relating to equipment and market participants included in the power system; receiving variable information indicating variables related to the regulations of the power system; and calculating the impact on market participants when the variables related to the regulations of the power system change , based on the power system information and the variable information; calculating the range of positive and negative fluctuations in the impact on electricity trading among market participants; and determining the risk of changes to the regulations of the power system based on the range of fluctuations .

Another aspect of this disclosure is a power system comprising a power supply and demand adjustment system that provides demand planning information and power generation planning information to a wide-area organization, the power system comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires power system information relating to the equipment and market participants included in the power system; a variable change unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the system of the power system; and a simulation unit that calculates the impact on the market participants when the variables related to the system of the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable change unit, wherein the variable information is information indicating the ratio in power transactions among the market participants, the variable change unit receives information indicating that the ratio in power transactions has been changed as the variable information, and the simulation unit calculates the change in the price of power transactions among the market participants with respect to the ratio in power transactions .
Another aspect of this disclosure is a power system including consumer equipment, power generator equipment, renewable energy power generation equipment, retail equipment, transmission and distribution equipment, and a power supply and demand adjustment system that presents demand planning information and power generation planning information to a wide-area organization, the power system comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system; a variable change unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the system of the power system; and a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the system of the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable change unit, wherein the variable information is information indicating the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in the power system, the variable change unit receives information indicating that the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges has been changed as the variable information, and the simulation unit calculates the change in charges relating to power transactions for market entrants with respect to the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges .
Another aspect of this disclosure is a power system including consumer equipment, power generator equipment, renewable energy power generation equipment, retail equipment, transmission and distribution equipment, and a power supply and demand adjustment system that presents demand planning information and power generation planning information to a wide-area organization, comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires power system information relating to equipment and market participants included in the power system; a variable change unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the system of the power system; and a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market participants when variables related to the system of the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable change unit, wherein the simulation unit calculates the range of positive and negative fluctuations in the impact on power transactions for market participants, and determines the risk of changes to the system of the power system based on the range of fluctuations .

According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to evaluate changes in the power system regulations when those changes are made.

This is a block diagram showing an example of a power system in an embodiment. This figure shows an example of the components in a power system according to an embodiment. This block diagram shows an example of the relationships between the various parts included in the power system in the embodiment. This is a block diagram showing an example of a simulation device in an embodiment. This is a block diagram showing an example of a specific configuration in the simulation device 1. This is a block diagram showing a functional example of the motion prediction unit in the embodiment. This is a sequence diagram showing an example of the processing procedure of a power system in an embodiment. This figure shows an example of the total transmission charges, the total generation-side charges, and the variable costs of the transmission and distribution equipment when the variables in the power system are changed in the embodiment.

The simulation apparatus, simulation method, simulation program, and power system to which the present invention is applied will be described below with reference to the drawings.

(Configuration of the power system)
Figure 1 is a block diagram showing an example of a power system in an embodiment. The power system includes, for example, a simulation device 1, a power generation system 100, a power transmission and distribution system 200, a retail system 300, a consumer system 400, a battery storage system 500, and a power market system 600. The simulation device 1, power generation system 100, power transmission and distribution system 200, retail system 300, consumer system 400, battery storage system 500, and power market system 600 have communication interfaces such as NICs (Network Interface Cards) or wireless communication modules for connecting to a network NW such as the Internet. The network NW may include, for example, a general-purpose network such as the Internet, and a private network such as local 5G or Wi-Fi®.

Figure 2 shows an example of the components of a power system in an embodiment. Note that the multiple customer facilities 410 included in the customer system 400 are shown distributed across different parts of Figure 2, and the power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610 in the power market system 600 is shown as part of the retail system 300. The components of the power generation system 100 include, for example, renewable energy power generation equipment 110 and power generation supply and demand adjustment system 112. The power generation system 100 may also include power generation equipment other than the renewable energy power generation equipment 110, such as distributed power sources, and devices for managing such power generation equipment. The renewable energy power generation equipment 110 includes power resources that generate electricity using renewable energy, such as wind power generation equipment, solar power generation equipment, small-scale hydropower generation equipment, biomass power generation equipment, geothermal power generation equipment, heat pump equipment, battery storage equipment, and electric vehicles. The power generation supply and demand adjustment system 112 outputs commands, etc., to the renewable energy power generation equipment 110 to adjust the balance between the demand for generated electricity and the supply of generated electricity in the power generation system 100.

The components of the power transmission and distribution system 200 include, for example, power transmission and distribution equipment 210 constructed by the power transmission and distribution operator, a transmission and distribution system 220, customer equipment 410, a smart meter system 420, and an meter information management system 430. The power transmission and distribution equipment 210 receives electricity generated by the power generator in the power generation system 100 and supplies it to the customer equipment. The customer equipment 410 includes, for example, electrical equipment that uses the supplied electricity at the customer's premises, and smart meters installed at each customer's premises.

The transmission system 220 executes processes to support transmission operations. The transmission system 220 may execute processes to support transmission operations based on packaged software. The transmission system 220 mediates charges related to power transmission using the transmission and distribution equipment 210. The transmission system 220 realizes the publication of transmission information and the acceptance of transmission applications in accordance with business protocols. The transmission system 220 improves processing accuracy and reduces labor in the settlement operations of adjustment power transactions.

The smart meter system 420 may include a database for managing information from numerous smart meters, and monitoring devices for monitoring the status of each smart meter. The smart meter system 420 performs meter data management, enabling functions such as metering data collection and management, meter reading, power distribution network operation, and demand management using smart meters. The smart meter system 420 manages and controls smart meters compatible with various communication methods. The smart meter system 420 enables wireless multi-hop communication for smart meters. The smart meter system 420 may include terminals for joint meter reading with gas or water lines, and intelligent terminals for remote monitoring and control of various sensors.

The instrument information management system 430 manages information on various instruments, such as smart meters, included in the customer equipment 410. The instrument information management system 430 manages information on various instruments included in the customer equipment 410 and provides this instrument information to the smart meter system 420.

The retail system 300 includes multiple retail electricity provider facilities 310 corresponding to multiple retail businesses, customer facilities 410, and a power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610. Each retail business supplies electricity to the customer facilities 410 using the transmission and distribution system 200 constructed by the power company and pays transmission line usage fees (transmission charges) to the transmission and distribution company. Each retail electricity provider facility 310 collects electricity charges from customers and performs processing for the retail electricity business to pay power generation companies for electricity procurement. The retail electricity provider facility 310 may perform processing for payment based on packaged software.

The components of the energy storage system 500 include an energy storage facility 510 and a distributed power supply operation system 520. The distributed power supply operation system 520 monitors, controls, and manages the power resources, including the energy storage facility 510, included in the energy storage system 500. The distributed power supply operation system 520 may control, monitor, and manage power resources based on commands from a higher level, such as a retail supply and demand adjustment system 610 or a transmission system 220. The distributed power supply operation system 520 receives demand response commands based on external requests and transmits power generation and reception records. The distributed power supply operation system 520 can aggregate and control the inflow and outflow of power to distributed power sources and supply the aggregated power. The distributed power supply operation system 520 can manage information on various distributed power sources and supply this information to the simulation device 1. Note that distributed power sources may include renewable energy power generation facilities.

The components of the electricity market system 600 include, for example, an electricity trading system 640. The electricity trading system 640 acquires power generation information from the power generation system 100 and retail electricity quantity information from the retail electricity provider equipment 310, and acquires demand quantity from the power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610. 640 performs electricity trading processing by referring to the power generation information, retail electricity quantity information, and demand quantity.

Figure 3 is a block diagram showing an example of the relationships between the various parts included in the power system in the embodiment.
The power generation system 100 receives fuel from the fuel market and acquires fuel price information. Contract information indicating the agreement between the transmission system 220, the power generation system 100, and the retail electricity provider equipment 310 is supplied to the transmission system 220. The smart meter system 420 transmits power generation demand information and power generation performance information to the transmission system 220. Based on the contract, the transmission system 220 transmits transmission charge information indicating the transmission charge to the power generation system 100 and the retail electricity provider equipment 310. In addition, if a surplus or shortage of electricity is supplied due to the inability to simultaneously achieve the planned and actual amounts, the transmission system 220 supplies information indicating the inbalance charge to be paid as compensation for adjustment to the power generation system 100 and the retail electricity provider equipment 310. The transmission system 220 accepts transmission contract applications from the power generation system 100 and the retail electricity provider equipment 310. The transmission system 220 requests transmission charges from the power generation system 100 or the retail electricity provider's equipment 310 as usage fees for the power transmission and distribution equipment 210 when it supplies electricity from the power generation system 100 or the retail electricity provider's equipment 310 to the customer equipment 410 using the power transmission and distribution equipment 210. The transmission system 220,

The smart meter system 420 provides power generation performance information and demand performance information to the power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610. The weather information server device 620, managed by the weather information provider, provides weather information to the power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610. The weather information only needs to be information indicating the weather for the area where power generation and power consumption are predicted at the power generation system 100, retail electricity business equipment 310, and consumer equipment 410. The information disclosure server device 630 provides the publicly available information to the power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610.

The power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610 receives power generation demand information and power generation performance information from the smart meter system 420. The power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610 receives weather information from the weather information provision server device 620. The power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610 performs weather forecasting based on the weather information. The power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610 receives publicly available information from the information disclosure server device 630. Based on the weather forecast results, power generation performance information, and demand performance information received from the smart meter system 420, the power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610 calculates power generation plans and demand plans.

The power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610 transmits information including the demand plan and the power generation plan to the power supply control system 122. The power supply control system 122 supplies commands based on the power generation plan to the power generation system 100. The power supply control system 122 supplies commands based on the demand plan to the resource control system 120. The resource control system 120 supplies commands based on the demand plan to the power generation system 100, the customer equipment 410, and the energy storage system 500.

The power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610 provides market transaction information to the power trading system 640 for conducting market transactions of electricity according to the calculated power generation and demand plans. The power generation system 100 supplies market transaction information indicating the amount of electricity generated to the power trading system 640. The retail electricity business equipment 310 supplies market transaction information indicating the amount of electricity to be sold to the power trading system 640. Based on the market transaction information supplied from the power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610, the power generation system 100, and the retail electricity business equipment 310, the power trading system 640 conducts transactions with, for example, the JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange) system and accumulates transaction-related data.

The distributed power supply operation system 520 transmits control commands to the renewable energy power generation facility 110 and receives fuel information from the renewable energy power generation facility 110. Based on this fuel information, the distributed power supply operation system 520 calculates the power generation performance of the renewable energy power generation facility 110. Based on the power generation performance, the distributed power supply operation system 520 outputs demand performance information, indicating the demand performance of the renewable energy power generation facility 110, to the power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610.

Figure 4 is a block diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of a simulation device in an embodiment. The simulation device 1 comprises, for example, an acquisition unit 10, a variable modification unit 20, a simulation unit 30, and a display data creation unit 40. The acquisition unit 10, variable modification unit 20, simulation unit 30, and display data creation unit 40 are realized, for example, by a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) executing a simulation program stored in program memory. While this embodiment describes the acquisition unit 10, variable modification unit 20, simulation unit 30, and display data creation unit 40 being integrated into the simulation device 1, it is not limited to this configuration, and the acquisition unit 10, variable modification unit 20, simulation unit 30, and display data creation unit 40 may be distributed throughout the power system.

The acquisition unit 10 acquires power system information regarding equipment and market participants included in the power system. Equipment included in the power system includes, for example, a power generation system 100, a transmission and distribution system 200, a retail system 300, a consumer system 400, and an energy storage system 500. The variable modification unit 20 receives variable information indicating variables related to the regulations of the power system. Based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit 10 and the variable information received by the variable modification unit 20, the simulation unit 30 predicts changes in the components when variables related to the regulations of the power system change, and calculates the impact of the variable changes on electricity transactions among consumers, power generators, and retailers based on the predicted changes.

Figure 5 is a block diagram showing an example of a specific configuration in the simulation device 1. The power system comprises a plurality of software processing units 700, the simulation device 1, and an evaluator terminal device 800. Each software processing unit 700 has a functional unit realized by software installed on the instrument information management system 430, smart meter system 420, transmission system 220, power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610, and resource control system 120, as shown in Figure 4. The software processing unit 700 comprises, for example, a system processing unit 710 customized by the instrument information management system 430, smart meter system 420, transmission system 220, power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610, and resource control system 120, an information extraction unit 720, an information provision unit 730, and a communication control unit 740. The system processing unit 710 performs processing to realize the functions of the instrument information management system 430, smart meter system 420, transmission system 220, power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610, and resource control system 120 as described above.

The information extraction unit 720, the information provision unit 730, and the communication control unit 740 are functional units provided for performing simulations using the simulation device 1. The information extraction unit 720 extracts information from the information processed by the system processing unit 710 that is necessary for performing simulations using the simulation device 1. The information provision unit 730 performs processing to provide the information necessary for the simulation to the simulation device 1. The information provision unit 730 also performs processing such as converting the information extracted by the information extraction unit 720 into a format that can be processed by the simulation device 1. The communication control unit 740 transmits the information necessary for the simulation to the simulation device 1 at a preset timing or according to a request from the simulation device 1.

The information used for simulation by the simulation device 1 includes, for example, system parameter information, operation information, and charge information. System parameter information refers to parameters related to the system used to determine various charges. For example, the system parameter information in the transmission system 220 includes information for determining transmission charges such as personnel costs, repair costs, depreciation costs, fixed asset tax, power development promotion tax, compensation charges, decommissioning facilitation charges, and other parameters in the transmission and distribution equipment 210, as well as information indicating the calculation method for transmission charges using these parameters. Operation information refers to, for example, information indicating the amount of electricity used [kWh] handled by the transmission and distribution system 200. Charge information refers to information indicating transmission charges. System parameter information may include the calculation method for operation information. Operation information refers to, for example, information indicating the calculation process for personnel costs, repair costs, and depreciation costs in the transmission and distribution equipment 210, and charge information is the transmission charge calculated based on the calculation process for personnel costs, repair costs, and depreciation costs in the transmission and distribution equipment 210.

The evaluator terminal device 800 is an information processing device, such as a personal computer, operated by an evaluator who evaluates changes in the power system's regulations. The evaluator terminal device 800 comprises, for example, a communication unit 810, a variable adjustment unit 820, and a user interface (UI) unit 830. The variable adjustment unit 820 and the user interface unit 830 are functional units realized, for example, by installing package software for evaluating regulations. The variable adjustment unit 820 adjusts the regulations parameters based on operations received by the user interface unit 830 and generates information specifying the regulations parameters. The communication unit 810 transmits the information specifying the regulations parameters generated by the variable adjustment unit 820 to the simulation device 1. The user interface unit 830 displays the simulation results using display data for the simulation results based on the information specifying the regulations parameters. This allows the evaluator terminal device 800 to allow the evaluator to understand the operation of the power system and the resulting charges when the regulations parameters are changed.

The simulation device 1 includes, for example, a communication unit 50, a communication control unit 52, a data management unit 54, a data storage unit 56, and a simulation processing unit 58. The communication unit 50 includes a NIC, etc. The communication unit 50 communicates with a plurality of software processing units 700. The communication control unit 52 controls the communication of the communication unit 50. For example, when the timing for acquiring information for performing a simulation arrives, the communication control unit 52 requests the information for the simulation from one or more software processing units 700. Thus, the communication unit 50 and the communication control unit 52 correspond to the acquisition unit 10.

The data management unit 54 stores the information for performing simulations acquired by the communication unit 50 in the data storage unit 56. The data storage unit 56, for example, is equipped with various storage devices and stores the information for performing simulations acquired from multiple software processing units 700. For example, the data storage unit 56 stores system parameter information, operation information, and charge information associated with each software processing unit 700. Note that charge information is not required for software processing units 700 that are not related to charges.

The simulation processing unit 58 includes, for example, a variable modification unit 60, an operation prediction unit 62, a fee calculation unit 64, and a display data creation unit 66. The simulation processing unit 58 is a specific example of implementing the variable modification unit 20, simulation unit 30, and display data creation unit 40 described above.

The variable modification unit 60 modifies variables related to the regulations of the power system based on information received from the evaluator terminal device 800. The variables related to the regulations of the power system are not particularly limited, as long as they affect the equipment included in the power system or the market participants. Examples of variables related to the regulations of the power system include those that affect electricity rates in the power market. Examples of variables related to the regulations of the power system include those that affect the operating rate of equipment included in the power system. An impact on market participants is, for example, a change in the rates borne by market participants.

Market participants may include consumers, power generators, and retailers. The acquisition unit 10 acquires information regarding the components of the power system, including consumer equipment, power generator equipment, renewable energy power generation equipment, retailer equipment, transmission and distribution equipment, and a power supply and demand adjustment system that presents demand planning information and power generation planning information to the wide-area organization, as power system information. The simulation unit 30 predicts changes in the components when variables related to the power system's regulations change, and based on the predicted changes, may calculate the impact of the variable changes on power transactions among consumers, power generators, and retailers. Changes in the components when variables related to the power system's regulations change include, for example, changes in the operating status of equipment included in the power system.

The operation prediction unit 62 predicts the operation of the system processing unit 710 when variables related to the power system's regulations are changed. The charge calculation unit 64 calculates the charge when the variables related to the power system's regulations are changed, based on the operation predicted by the operation prediction unit 62. The display data creation unit 66 creates display data for displaying information including the charge calculated by the charge calculation unit 64. The display data created by the display data creation unit 66 is transmitted to the evaluator terminal device 800.

For example, the variable change unit 60 receives notification that a variable in the power system has changed from a first value to a second value. The operation prediction unit 62 predicts the change from the operating state when the first value was set to the operating state when the second value was set, assuming that the equipment included in the power system operates according to the second value. The charge calculation unit 64 compares the combination of charges borne by multiple market entrants when the equipment is operating under the operating state when the first value is set with the combination of charges borne by multiple market entrants when the equipment is operating under the operating state when the second value is set. This allows the simulation processing unit 58 to calculate the change in charges for each market entrant.

The simulation unit 30 may predict changes in the operating status of equipment included in the power system or changes in the variable costs of equipment included in the power system, in response to changes in variables related to the system's efficiency. This allows the simulation device 1 to predict, for example, changes in the operating status of equipment when the equipment's operating method is changed.

Specifically, the evaluator terminal device 800 adjusts the scale of the expansion of the power transmission and distribution equipment 210 and the cost burden ratio for the expansion of the power transmission and distribution equipment 210 as variables. The variable change unit 60 changes the scale of the expansion of the power transmission and distribution equipment 210 and the cost burden ratio for the expansion of the power transmission and distribution equipment 210, and requests a prediction from the operation prediction unit 62. When the scale of the expansion of the power transmission and distribution equipment 210 and the cost burden ratio for the expansion of the power transmission and distribution equipment 210 are changed, the operation prediction unit 62 predicts, for example, fluctuations in personnel costs, repair costs, and depreciation costs in the power transmission and distribution equipment 210 as operation information. The cost burden ratio is, for example, the ratio of the costs required for the expansion of the power transmission and distribution equipment 210 borne by the owner of the power transmission and distribution equipment 210 to the costs borne by the power transmission and distribution operator. The charge calculation unit 64 calculates the transmission charges using the predicted labor costs, repair costs, and depreciation costs for the power transmission and distribution equipment 210.

Figure 6 is a block diagram illustrating a functional example of the motion prediction unit in the embodiment. The motion prediction unit 62 is connected to the model construction unit 62B and the learning data storage unit 62C. The motion prediction unit 62 performs calculations according to the prediction model 62A. The prediction model 62A takes variable information supplied from the variable modification unit 60 as input and outputs the motion information and confidence level of the system processing unit 710 as prediction results. The prediction model 62A is a machine learning model, such as a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN).

The model building unit 62B constructs a prediction model 62A. The model building unit 62B acquires accuracy parameter information, operation information, and fee information as training data. During training, the model building unit 62B inputs the accuracy parameter information, operation information, and fee information into the prediction model 62A. The model building unit 62B takes information acquired from multiple software processing units 700 as input and outputs the prediction results of the multiple software processing units 700, but is not limited to this. The model building unit 62B may take information acquired from multiple software processing units 700 as input and output the prediction result of one software processing unit 700, or it may take information acquired from one software processing unit 700 as input and output the prediction result of one software processing unit 700.

The prediction model 62A outputs an estimation result including operation information and confidence level when it receives precision parameter information, operation information, and fee information during training. The model construction unit 62B recursively updates the processing parameters of the prediction model 62A so that the operation information output from the prediction model 62A matches the operation information used as training data. The processing parameters are, for example, at least one of the following in a convolutional neural network: the number of layers, the number of nodes in each layer, the node connection method between layers, the activation function, the error function, and the gradient descent algorithm, the pooling region, the kernel, the weight coefficients, and the weight matrix. As a result, the model construction unit 62B performs, for example, deep learning to obtain the processing parameters. Deep learning is machine learning using a multi-layer structure, especially a neural network with three or more layers. Note that the model construction unit 62B does not necessarily have to be included in the operation prediction unit 62; it is sufficient if the prediction model 62A can be introduced into the operation prediction unit 62 during the initial setup or maintenance of the simulation device 1. Predictive model 62A takes system parameter information as input during estimation and outputs estimation results showing operational information and confidence levels.

Figure 7 is a sequence diagram showing an example of the processing procedure for a power system in an embodiment. When the simulation device 1 receives system parameter information, operation information, and charge information from multiple package software processing units 700, it updates the database stored in the data storage unit 56 and trains the prediction model 62A based on the information stored in the updated database. When the simulation device 1 receives variable information due to variable adjustments by the evaluator terminal device 800, it predicts the operation of the software processing unit 700 using the changed variables and calculates the charge when the software processing unit 700 operates with the predicted operation. The simulation device 1 creates display data including the calculated charge and provides the display data to the evaluator terminal device 800 that transmitted the variable information. This allows the evaluator terminal device 800 to display the charge when the software processing unit 700 operates after the variables have been adjusted.

Figure 8 shows an example of the total transmission charges, the total generator-side charges, and the variable costs of the transmission and distribution equipment when variables in the power system are changed in the embodiment. For example, suppose the evaluator terminal device 800 adjusts the system parameter information indicating an upgrade to the transmission and distribution equipment 210. At this time, the operation prediction unit 62 predicts the operation of the transmission and distribution power, etc., when the transmission and distribution equipment 210 is upgraded, and the charge calculation unit 64 calculates the variable costs of the transmission and distribution equipment 210 based on the predicted operation. The charge calculation unit 64 also calculates the total generator-side charges and the total transmission charges based on the variable costs of the transmission and distribution equipment 210. When the variable change unit 60 changes the transmission and distribution equipment 210 within the range of the enhancement, the operation prediction unit 62 predicts the fluctuation range of transmission and distribution power in relation to the change range, and the charge calculation unit 64 can calculate the total transmission charges, the total generation-side charges, and the positive and negative impacts on the variable costs of the transmission and distribution equipment 210 in relation to the fluctuation range of transmission and distribution power. The display data creation unit 40 can create data that displays the total transmission charges, which have the largest fluctuation range among the total transmission charges, total generation-side charges, and variable costs of the transmission and distribution equipment 210, at the top. This allows the simulation device 1 to make those considering a change in the power system's regulations aware of the charges that will have the greatest impact.

The variable information may be information indicating the ratios in electricity trading among consumers, power generators, and retailers. The ratios in electricity trading among consumers, power generators, and retailers are, for example, the cost-sharing ratios for using the electricity system. In this case, the variable change unit 60 receives information from the evaluator terminal device 800 indicating that the ratios in electricity trading have been changed as variable information. The operation prediction unit 62 predicts the changes in the operation of each system processing unit 710 when the change in the ratios in electricity trading is applied. The charge calculation unit 64 calculates the changes in charges related to electricity trading among consumers, power generators, and retailers, which are determined by the operation of each system processing unit 710. This allows the simulation device 1 to calculate the impact on the system design when the ratios borne by market participants in electricity trading change.

The variable information may be information indicating the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in the power system. The variable change unit 60 receives information from the evaluator terminal device 800 indicating that the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges has been changed. The operation prediction unit 62 predicts the changes in the operation of each system processing unit 710 when the change in the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges is applied. The charge calculation unit 64 calculates the changes in charges related to electricity trading for consumers, power generators, and retailers in relation to the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges. This allows the simulation device 1 to calculate the impact on the system design when the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in electricity trading changes.

The variable information may be information about the environment of the region to which the power system regulations apply. The variable change unit 60 receives information from the evaluator terminal device 800 indicating that the environmental information has changed as variable information. The operation prediction unit 62 predicts the changes in the operation of each system processing unit 710 when a change in the regional environment is applied. For example, the operation prediction unit 62 predicts the changes in the operation of the system processing unit 710 when a new distributed power source is connected to the transmission and distribution equipment 210. The charge calculation unit 64 calculates the changes in charges related to electricity transactions for consumers, power generators, and retailers in response to the changes in the operation of the system processing unit 710. The regional environment to which the power system regulations apply may be, for example, the climate of the region using the simulation device 1, the season and time of day for which the impact on the system design is to be simulated, etc.

The simulation processing unit 58 may calculate the positive and negative fluctuations in the impact on electricity trading among consumers, power generators, and retailers when variables related to the regulations of the power system are changed. The simulation unit 30 may determine the risk of the change in the power system regulations based on these fluctuations. For example, the simulation unit 30 may determine that the higher the fluctuation in the impact on electricity trading due to changes in variables related to the regulations, the higher the risk of the regulations change. Furthermore, the display data creation unit 40 may create data that prioritizes displaying the effects with the largest fluctuations among those calculated by the simulation unit 30.

As described above, the simulation device 1 of this embodiment comprises an acquisition unit 10 that acquires power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the power system, a variable modification unit 20 that receives variable information indicating variables related to the regulations of the power system, and a simulation unit 30 that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the regulations of the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit 10 and the variable information received by the variable modification unit 20. According to the simulation device 1 of this embodiment, it is possible to evaluate the regulation change when the regulations of the power system are changed.

According to the simulation device 1 of the embodiment, power system information concerning equipment and market entrants included in the power system, including renewable energy power generation equipment 110, can be acquired, changes in the renewable energy power generation equipment 110 can be predicted when variables related to the power system regulations change, and the impact of the variable changes on electricity transactions among consumers, power generators, and retailers can be calculated based on the predicted changes. Thus, according to the simulation device 1, the impact of changes in the power system regulations on decentralized power generation equipment such as solar power generation equipment can be calculated, and changes in the power system regulations can be evaluated while considering the renewable energy power generation equipment 110. Similarly, according to the simulation device 1 of the embodiment, power system information concerning equipment and market entrants included in the power system, including transmission and distribution equipment 210 that performs transmission and distribution, can be acquired, changes in transmission of the transmission and distribution equipment 210 can be predicted when variables related to the power system regulations change, and the impact of the variable changes on electricity transactions among consumers, power generators, and retailers can be calculated based on the predicted changes. Thus, according to the simulation device 1, the impact of changes in the power system regulations on transmission of the transmission and distribution equipment 210 can be calculated, and changes in the power system regulations can be evaluated while considering the transmission of the transmission and distribution equipment 210. Similarly, the simulation device 1 of the embodiment can acquire power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system, including the smart meter system 420. It can predict changes in the smart meter system 420 when variables related to the power system regulations change, and, based on the predicted changes, calculate the impact of these variable changes on power transactions among consumers, power generators, and retailers. Thus, the simulation device 1 can calculate the impact of power system regulation changes on the smart meter system 420 and evaluate power system regulation changes while considering the smart meter system 420.

According to the simulation device 1 of this embodiment, by introducing, for example, package software into the power system, functions such as an instrument information management system 430, a smart meter system 420, a transmission system 220, a weather information provision server device 620, and a resource control system 120 can be realized. The simulation device 1 collects information about the power system through communication between the package software and the simulation device 1. The simulation device 1 can simulate how the collected information about the power system changes when it acquires information indicating a change in the power system's regulations.

Furthermore, the simulation device 1 may collect information from software installed in other equipment within the power system, in addition to the instrument information management system 430, smart meter system 420, transmission system 220, power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system 610, and resource control system 120, all implemented using package software. For example, the simulation device 1 collects information related to power trading in the power trading system 640 using package software installed in the power trading system 640. The simulation device 1 accumulates changes in information related to power trading with respect to variables related to the power system's regulations. When new variables related to the power system's regulations are set, the simulation device 1 can simulate changes in information related to power trading with respect to these new variables. For example, the simulation device 1 collects information regarding the supply and demand balance status understood within the wide-area organization system using package software installed in the wide-area organization system. The simulation device 1 accumulates information regarding the supply and demand balance status with respect to variables related to the power system's regulations. When new variables related to the power system's regulations are set, the simulation device 1 can simulate changes in information related to the supply and demand balance status with respect to these new variables.

Furthermore, the simulation device 1 may install software on each of the following: the consumer equipment 410, the power generation equipment in the power generation system 100, and the retail business equipment 310, and collect information regarding the behavior of the consumer equipment 410, the power generation equipment in the power generation system 100, and the retail business equipment 310. The simulation device 1 accumulates information regarding the changes in the behavior of each of the consumer equipment 410, the power generation equipment in the power generation system 100, and the retail business equipment 310 in relation to variables related to the regulations of the power system. When new variables related to the regulations of the power system are set, the simulation device 1 can simulate the changes in the information regarding the behavior of each of the power generation equipment in the power generation system 100 and the retail business equipment 310 in relation to the new variables.

As described above, the simulation device 1 can accumulate information on market participants (players) involved in the power system and simulate the behavior of these market participants when variables related to future power distribution trends are introduced into the power system. As a result, the simulation device 1 allows for a comprehensive evaluation of the power system's regulations across the entire system during the regulatory review phase. Furthermore, the simulation device 1 can simulate the impact on each market participant involved in the power system when the regulations of the power system are changed.

According to Simulation Device 1, by conducting simulations of new power system regulations, the simulation results can be used to support thorough consideration when changing power system regulations. For example, if a new power system is launched without sufficient consideration of the regulations, it is possible to mitigate disruptions to the power system and electricity market, such as supply-demand imbalances, soaring electricity prices, and unfair competition. Furthermore, by supporting the design of power system regulations, Simulation Device 1 can minimize changes to power system regulations or specifications, thereby reducing system development costs for new power system regulations. As a result, Simulation Device 1 can provide simulation results to general transmission and distribution companies and other entities purchasing power systems.

While various embodiments and modifications have been described, these are merely examples and not limiting. For example, one embodiment or modification, or a part of one embodiment or modification, may be combined with one or more other embodiments or modifications to realize one aspect of the present invention.

1…Simulation device, 10…Acquisition unit, 20…Variable modification unit, 30…Simulation unit, 40…Display data creation unit, 100…Power generation system, 120…Resource control system, 200…Power transmission and distribution system, 220…Transmission system, 300…Retail system, 400…Customer system, 420…Smart meter system, 430…Instrument information management system, 500…Energy storage system, 600…Power market system, 610…Power generation/retail supply and demand adjustment system, 620…Weather information provision server device, 630…Information disclosure server device

Claims (13)

An acquisition unit that acquires power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system,
A variable modification unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The system includes a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable modification unit,
The aforementioned variable information is information indicating the ratio in electricity trading among the market participants,
The variable modification unit receives information as variable information indicating that the ratio in the electricity transaction has been changed.
The simulation unit calculates the change in electricity trading rates for the market entrants with respect to the ratio in the electricity trading.
Simulation device. An acquisition unit that acquires power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system,
A variable modification unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The system includes a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable modification unit,
The aforementioned variable information is information indicating the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in the power system,
The variable modification unit receives information as variable information indicating that the ratio between the fixed charge and the variable charge has been changed.
The simulation unit calculates the change in electricity trading rates for the market entrants with respect to the ratio of the fixed rate to the variable rate.
Simulation device. An acquisition unit that acquires power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system,
A variable modification unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The system includes a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable modification unit,
The simulation unit calculates the positive and negative fluctuations in the impact on electricity trading for market entrants, and determines the risk of changes to the electricity system based on these fluctuations . The simulation apparatus according to claim 3 , which creates data that prioritizes displaying the effects with a large fluctuation range among the effects calculated by the simulation unit. Computers
Steps include obtaining power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system,
The steps include receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The step of calculating the impact on market entrants when variables related to the system of the power system change, based on the power system information and the variable information,
The aforementioned variable information is information indicating the ratio in electricity trading among the market participants,
The aforementioned variable information accepts information indicating that the ratio in the electricity transaction has been changed.
A simulation method for calculating the change in electricity trading fees for market participants with respect to the ratio in the aforementioned electricity trading . On the computer,
Steps include obtaining power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system,
The steps include receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The procedure involves performing the steps of calculating the impact on market entrants when variables related to the system of the power system change, based on the power system information and the variable information,
The aforementioned variable information is information indicating the ratio in electricity trading among the market participants,
The system accepts information indicating that the ratio in the electricity transaction has been changed as the aforementioned variable information.
A simulation program that calculates the change in electricity trading fees for the market entrants in relation to the ratio in the aforementioned electricity trading . Computers
Steps include obtaining power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system,
The steps include receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The step of calculating the impact on market entrants when variables related to the system of the power system change, based on the power system information and the variable information,
The aforementioned variable information is information indicating the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in the power system,
The variable information received includes information indicating that the ratio between the fixed charge and the variable charge has been changed.
A simulation method for calculating the change in electricity trading fees for market participants with respect to the ratio of the fixed fee to the variable fee . On the computer,
Steps include obtaining power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system,
The steps include receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The procedure involves performing the steps of calculating the impact on market entrants when variables related to the system of the power system change, based on the power system information and the variable information,
The aforementioned variable information is information indicating the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in the power system,
The system accepts information indicating that the ratio between the fixed charge and the variable charge has been changed as the variable information.
A simulation program that calculates the change in electricity trading fees for market participants with respect to the ratio of the fixed fee to the variable fee . Computers
Steps include obtaining power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system,
The steps include receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The step of calculating the impact on market entrants when variables related to the system of the power system change, based on the power system information and the variable information,
A simulation method for calculating the positive and negative fluctuations in the impact on electricity trading for the aforementioned market entrants, and determining the risks of institutional changes to the electricity system based on these fluctuations . On the computer,
Steps include obtaining power system information regarding equipment and market entrants included in the power system,
The steps include receiving variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The procedure involves performing the steps of calculating the impact on market entrants when variables related to the system of the power system change, based on the power system information and the variable information,
A simulation program that calculates the positive and negative fluctuations in the impact on electricity trading for the aforementioned market entrants, and determines the risk of the regulatory changes to the electricity system based on these fluctuations . A power system including consumer equipment, power generation equipment, renewable energy power generation equipment, retail equipment, transmission and distribution equipment, and a power supply and demand adjustment system that presents demand planning information and power generation planning information to a wide-area organization,
An acquisition unit that acquires power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the aforementioned power system,
A variable modification unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The system includes a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable modification unit,
The aforementioned variable information is information indicating the ratio in electricity trading among the market participants,
The variable modification unit receives information as variable information indicating that the ratio in the electricity transaction has been changed.
The simulation unit calculates the change in electricity trading rates for the market entrants with respect to the ratio in the electricity trading.
Power system. A power system including consumer facilities, power generation facility, renewable energy power generation facility, retail facility, transmission and distribution facility, and a power supply and demand adjustment system that presents demand planning information and power generation planning information to a wide-area organization,
An acquisition unit that acquires power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the aforementioned power system,
A variable modification unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The system includes a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable modification unit,
The aforementioned variable information is information indicating the ratio of fixed charges to variable charges in the power system,
The variable modification unit receives information as variable information indicating that the ratio between the fixed charge and the variable charge has been changed.
The simulation unit calculates the change in electricity trading rates for market participants with respect to the ratio of the fixed rate to the variable rate . A power system including consumer equipment, power generation equipment, renewable energy power generation equipment, retail equipment, transmission and distribution equipment, and a power supply and demand adjustment system that presents demand planning information and power generation planning information to a wide-area organization,
An acquisition unit that acquires power system information relating to equipment and market entrants included in the aforementioned power system,
A variable modification unit that receives variable information indicating variables related to the system of the aforementioned power system,
The system includes a simulation unit that calculates the impact on market entrants when variables related to the power system change, based on the power system information acquired by the acquisition unit and the variable information received by the variable modification unit,
The simulation unit calculates the positive and negative fluctuations in the impact on electricity trading among market participants, and determines the risk of changes to the power system based on these fluctuations .