JP7843444B2 - Power adjustment plan creation device and power adjustment plan creation method - Google Patents

Description

This invention relates to a power adjustment plan creation device and a power adjustment plan creation method.

With the full liberalization of electricity retail, numerous private companies (so-called retail electricity providers) are entering the retail electricity market. These retail electricity providers may be charged an imbalance fee if an imbalance occurs, which is the difference between sales plans and actual sales. Therefore, Patent Document 1 discloses a device for predicting imbalance prices before the execution of supply and demand plans.

Japanese Patent Publication No. 2017-117356

Incidentally, retail electricity providers create a power adjustment plan for a specific day, for example, the day before the day they are scheduled to supply electricity to customers. From the perspective of improving the profitability of retail electricity providers, it is desirable that they create power adjustment plans that are highly economical.

Therefore, the present invention provides a power adjustment plan creation device and a power adjustment plan creation method capable of creating highly economical power adjustment plans.

A power adjustment plan creation device according to one aspect of the present invention is a power adjustment plan creation device for a power retailer to create a power adjustment plan when supplying power to consumers, and comprises: an adjustment power amount acquisition unit that acquires an adjustment power amount indicating the amount of power that needs to be adjusted with the power trading market, including the previous day market and the current day market; a previous day market adjustment profit and loss acquisition unit that acquires the previous day market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment power amount is traded in the previous day market in a demand time unit; a current day market adjustment profit and loss acquisition unit that acquires the current day market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment power amount is traded in the current day market in a demand time unit; an adjustment plan creation unit that compares the previous day market adjustment estimated profit and loss and the current day market adjustment estimated profit and loss for each of the demand time units and creates the adjustment plan based on the comparison result; and an output unit that outputs the adjustment plan.

A method for creating a power adjustment plan according to one aspect of the present invention is a method for creating a power adjustment plan when a power retailer supplies power to a consumer, and includes: a first acquisition step of acquiring an adjustment amount indicating the amount of power that needs to be adjusted with the power trading market, including the previous day market and the current day market; a second acquisition step of acquiring an estimated profit and loss for adjustments in the previous day market, indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment amount is traded in the previous day market, in demand time units; a third acquisition step of acquiring an estimated profit and loss for adjustments in the current day market, indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment amount is traded in the current day market, in demand time units; a creation step of comparing the estimated profit and loss for adjustments in the previous day market and the estimated profit and loss for adjustments in the current day market in each of the demand time units, and creating the adjustment plan based on the comparison result; and an output step of outputting the adjustment plan.

According to one aspect of the present invention, a power adjustment plan creation device and the like capable of creating highly economical power adjustment plans can be realized.

Figure 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system according to Embodiment 1. Figure 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device according to Embodiment 1. Figure 3 shows an example of the display of the presentation unit according to Embodiment 1. Figure 4 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system according to Embodiment 2. Figure 5 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device according to Embodiment 2. Figure 6 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system according to Embodiment 3. Figure 7 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device according to Embodiment 3. Figure 8 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system according to Embodiment 4. Figure 9 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device according to Embodiment 4.

(Background leading to the present invention)
In 2016, the full liberalization of electricity retail began in Japan, allowing all consumers, including households and shops, to freely choose their electricity supplier and pricing plan. As a result, while electricity was previously supplied mainly by local power companies (formerly general electricity utilities), the liberalization of the electricity market has led to a surge in new businesses entering the retail electricity market, known as "retail electricity suppliers" (formerly specified-scale electricity utilities). A retail electricity supplier is one example of a business that supplies electricity to the retail market. It should be noted that businesses that sell electricity are not limited to retail electricity suppliers.

With the full liberalization of electricity retail, the simultaneous supply and demand matching system was introduced in 2016. This obligates retail electricity providers to always match their planned sales figures with their actual sales figures (for example, every 30 minutes). If an imbalance occurs—the difference between a retail electricity provider's sales plan (which includes planned demand) and their actual sales figures (which include actual demand)—the provider may be charged an imbalance fee. Therefore, minimizing the difference between planned and actual sales is crucial for a retail electricity provider's profitability. Reducing imbalances lowers the costs of electricity procurement and adjustment for retail electricity providers, leading to improved profitability. Furthermore, reducing imbalances contributes to maintaining the supply-demand balance in the power grid.

Note that 30 minutes is just one example of a specified period. The specified period is the period of a demand time unit (demand time unit), and is not limited to 30 minutes, for example. Furthermore, the method of creating the sales plan is not particularly limited, and any existing method may be used. Sales are also referred to as supply, and the sales plan is also referred to as a demand plan or sales volume plan.

This section will explain the general workflow of a retail electricity provider. First, we will describe the workflow for the day before selling electricity to customers.

Retail electricity providers obtain information on the next day's FIT (Feed-in Tariff) power generation plan values from general transmission and distribution companies (the transmission and distribution divisions of former general electricity companies) as needed. These power generation plan values may be, for example, planned values in 30-minute intervals. Furthermore, retail electricity providers formulate the next day's sales plan based on the predicted demand (electricity demand) of their contracted customers, as needed. The sales plan may include, for example, demand data for 48 30-minute intervals for the following day (or current day).

Retail electricity providers determine whether there will be a power shortage for the following day based on their sales plan and, for example, the amount of electricity they procure directly from power generators. If there is a shortage, they procure the necessary electricity through bidding from the wholesale electricity trading market (the so-called spot market) at JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange). Power generators are businesses that maintain and operate their own power generation facilities (electrical installations for power generation) and generate electricity for use in retail electricity businesses, etc. If a retail electricity provider owns power generation facilities, i.e., if they operate both a power generation business and a retail electricity business, they may determine whether there will be a power shortage for the following day based on their sales plan and the amount of electricity generated by those facilities (forecasted generation amount). Furthermore, the spot market is an example of a day-ahead market, and the hour-ahead market is an example of a day-ahead market.

Retail electricity providers then formulate a final sales plan for the following day, including procurement from the wholesale electricity market, and submit this plan to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO). This final sales plan for the following day is also referred to as the initial sales plan. OCCTO is responsible for formulating long-term policies and wide-area grid development plans, and reviewing grid access operations.

Electricity transaction prices include the transaction price between power generators and retail electricity providers, and the transaction price when procuring from the spot market. The transaction price between power generators and retail electricity providers is determined through bilateral contracts between them.

Furthermore, the transaction price when procuring from the spot market is, for example, the contract price in the spot market, which is determined shortly after 10:00 AM the previous day. For example, the contract price, i.e., the market price in the wholesale electricity trading market, includes both a system price (the price at the intersection of the nationwide sell bid curve and buy bid curve) and an area price (the price when the contract price is calculated for each area due to interconnection line capacity constraints). The transaction price can be either price. This transaction price can also be said to be the price of electricity based on transactions between one or more retail electricity businesses and one or more power generators via the wholesale electricity trading market. While we have explained the case of electricity shortage, retail electricity businesses may bid and trade as sellers in the spot market if there is a surplus of electricity for the following day, based on their sales plan and, for example, the amount of electricity procured directly from power generators.

Furthermore, at least one of the transaction prices between power generators and retail electricity providers, and the transaction price when procuring from the spot market, is an example of the transaction price of electricity based on the electricity sales volume plan.

The above example described procuring electricity from the spot market on JEPX, but it is not limited to the JEPX spot market; any wholesale electricity trading market will suffice.

Next, we will explain the daily workflow for supplying electricity to customers.

Retail electricity providers monitor whether they are selling electricity according to the sales plan formulated the previous day (so-called monitoring of simultaneous supply and demand). If there is a power shortage on the day, retail electricity providers procure the necessary amount by bidding on the wholesale electricity trading market (so-called pre-sale market) at JEPX, and revise their sales plan as needed before submitting it to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators. Revisions are made, for example, when there is a significant discrepancy between the sales plan formulated the previous day and the actual sales on the day. If there is a surplus, the provider may bid and trade as a seller in the pre-sale market, similar to the spot market. Furthermore, the pre-sale market is an example of the same-day market, and the electricity trading price in the pre-sale market is an example of the market price in the wholesale electricity trading market.

As explained above, retail electricity providers are required to create their initial sales plan the day before. Based on this sales plan and, for example, the amount of electricity they procure directly from power generators, they create their initial sales plan to procure the necessary amount of electricity from the spot market or the next day's pre-sale market if there is a shortage of electricity for the following day. If the spot market transaction price and the pre-sale market transaction price differ significantly, a deviation from the optimal initial sales plan will occur, which may reduce the profitability of the retail electricity provider. Similarly, if market prices rise above the imbalance price, a deviation from the optimal initial sales plan will occur, which may also reduce the profitability of the retail electricity provider. Therefore, from the perspective of improving the profitability of retail electricity providers, it is desirable that when creating the initial sales plan, the spot market transaction price and the pre-sale market transaction price be considered, and that an economically efficient electricity procurement plan be created to procure the necessary amount of electricity for the following day's shortage. Although the above has described the case of a power shortage, if there is a surplus of electricity compared to the planned value, the surplus will also be transferred to suppress the occurrence of an imbalance. Retail electricity providers create a pre-sale plan that includes selling the surplus to the wholesale electricity trading market.

Therefore, the inventors of this application have diligently studied a power adjustment plan creation device and method capable of creating highly economical power adjustment plans, and have devised the power adjustment plan creation device and method described below. In the following, a power adjustment plan will be simply referred to as an adjustment plan.

The embodiments will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings.

The embodiments described below are either comprehensive or specific examples. The numerical values, components, their arrangement and connection configurations, steps, and step order shown in the following embodiments are examples only and are not intended to limit the present invention. Furthermore, components in the following embodiments that are not described in an independent claim are described as optional components.

Furthermore, each figure is a schematic diagram and not necessarily a strictly accurate representation. Therefore, for example, the scale may not necessarily match across all figures. Also, in each figure, substantially identical components are denoted by the same reference numerals, and redundant explanations are omitted or simplified.

Furthermore, in this specification, terms indicating relationships between elements such as "same" or "identical," as well as numerical values and numerical ranges, do not represent only strict meanings, but also include substantially equivalent ranges, such as differences of a few percent (e.g., about 10%).

(Embodiment 1)
The power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described below with reference to Figures 1 to 3.

[1-1. Configuration of the Power Adjustment Loss Plan Presentation System]
First, the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system equipped with the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figure 1. Figure 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 according to this embodiment.

As shown in Figure 1, the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 comprises a power adjustment plan creation device 100 and a presentation unit 300. Communication between the power adjustment plan creation device 100 and the presentation unit 300 may be wireless or wired.

The power adjustment plan creation device 100 creates an adjustment plan for when a retail electricity provider supplies electricity to consumers. Based on the sales plan and the amount of electricity procured from power generators, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 creates an adjustment plan to procure the necessary electricity if there is a shortage of electricity for the following day. A retail electricity provider is a business that supplies electricity to consumers. If a retail electricity provider owns power generation facilities (e.g., a power plant), the power adjustment plan creation device 100 may create an adjustment plan based on the sales plan and the amount of electricity generated by those facilities (predicted generation amount). The retail electricity provider and the power generator may be the same business.

A customer is a consumer who enters into a contract with a retail electricity provider and purchases electricity from them. A customer's facility may be, for example, a residence, but is not limited to this; it may also be a factory, apartment building, office building, hospital, school, or any other building where a load is located. In the following, the day on which electricity is supplied to the customer (for example, the next day) may be referred to as "the current day," and the day before that day may be referred to as "the previous day."

The power adjustment plan creation device 100 comprises a sales electricity acquisition unit 110a, a weather information acquisition unit 110b, a market transaction price acquisition unit 110c, an adjustment electricity forecast unit 120, a spot market unit price forecast unit 130, a time-ahead market unit price forecast unit 140, a spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150, a time-ahead market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160, an adjustment plan creation unit 170, an output unit 180, and a storage unit (not shown) for storing various tables. The power adjustment plan creation device 100 is implemented by a computer including a processor, memory, etc., or by a smartphone. Specifically, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 functions as a sales electricity acquisition unit 110a, a weather information acquisition unit 110b, a market transaction price acquisition unit 110c, an adjustment electricity forecast unit 120, a spot market unit price forecast unit 130, a time-ahead market unit price forecast unit 140, a spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150, a time-ahead market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160, an adjustment plan creation unit 170, and an output unit 180, through the operation of a processor according to a program stored in memory. The power adjustment plan creation device 100 may be implemented, for example, by a server device owned by a retail electricity provider.

The electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a acquires electricity sales volume (actual electricity sales volume value) that shows the actual amount of electricity sold to one or more customers during the past first period. The electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a may, for example, acquire electricity sales volume directly from meters installed by general transmission and distribution companies or customers, acquire electricity sales volume from a server device that manages electricity sales volume, or acquire electricity sales volume by reading it from the storage unit of the unit itself if the electricity sales volume is stored there. Note that the electricity sales volume is the actual value of the total amount of electricity sold (supplied) by the retail electricity business operator to customers with whom it has a contract during the first period. Furthermore, electricity sales volume is acquired, for example, for each demand time unit.

The weather information acquisition unit 110b acquires weather information for the first period and the second period, which will be subject to future power supply. The weather information may include hourly weather data for the first period and hourly weather forecasts for the second period. In other words, the weather information may be in three-hour intervals. However, the weather information is not limited to three-hour intervals.

Furthermore, the weather information acquisition unit 110b may acquire weather information from, for example, a weather information distribution company. The weather information acquisition unit 110b may also acquire weather information for the first and second periods from, for example, a server device that manages weather information (for example, a server device managed by the Japan Meteorological Agency or a private company that provides weather information). The first period is not particularly limited and may be, for example, a period of several days, weeks, months, or several years prior to the second period.

Weather information includes, but is not limited to, temperature, humidity, weather (sunny, cloudy, rainy, snowy, etc.), and solar radiation. Furthermore, the weather information for the second period here includes information obtained (forecasted) before bidding on the spot market. In other words, the weather information here is information obtained on the previous day, before submitting the sales plan to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO). The weather information for the second period here is the weather information used when formulating the sales plan to be submitted to OCCTO.

Furthermore, the weather information acquisition unit 110b may acquire event information in addition to or instead of weather information. The event information includes the content of the event (festival, concert, etc.) and the time period during which the event will take place. The event information may also include calendar information such as public holidays. For example, if the customer is a factory or office building, the calendar information would include information indicating working days, business days, and holidays. Here, the acquired weather information or event information is at least linked to the area where the customer contracted by the retail electricity provider is located.

The market transaction price acquisition unit 110c acquires actual transaction prices that show the actual wholesale electricity market prices for the first period. The actual transaction price is the price in market transactions in the wholesale electricity market, and includes the price (e.g., unit price) at which retail electricity businesses trade electricity in the wholesale electricity market. The actual transaction price includes, for example, the actual price at which electricity was traded in the spot market during the first period to supply electricity to consumers (spot market transaction price) and the actual price at which electricity was traded in the advance market during the first period to supply electricity to consumers (advance market transaction price). The spot market transaction price and the advance market transaction price may be from the same period or from different periods. The market transaction price acquisition unit 110c acquires actual transaction prices from a server device or the like that manages the wholesale electricity market. The spot market transaction price is an example of a first price, and the advance market transaction price is an example of a second price. Furthermore, the spot market transaction price includes, for example, at least one of the actual transactions when electricity was procured from the spot market and the actual transactions when electricity was sold to the spot market, and the ahead market transaction price includes, for example, at least one of the actual transactions when electricity was procured from the ahead market and the actual transactions when electricity was sold to the ahead market.

The electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a, the weather information acquisition unit 110b, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c are configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module). At least one of the electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a, the weather information acquisition unit 110b, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c may be configured to include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., and may acquire various information through input from the retail electricity business operator's administrator, etc. Furthermore, the electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a, the weather information acquisition unit 110b, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c may be implemented as a single device or as separate devices.

The Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 acquires the adjusted power quantity, which indicates the amount of electricity that needs to be traded in the wholesale power trading market. In this embodiment, the Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 acquires the adjusted power quantity by predicting the adjusted power quantity, which indicates the amount of electricity that needs to be traded in the wholesale power trading market during the second period, based on the amount of electricity sold, weather information, the customer master table, and planned values. First, the Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 predicts the electricity demand for the second period based on the amount of electricity sold, weather information, and the customer master table. For example, the Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 calculates the basic electricity demand based on one or more sales amounts when the weather conditions are the same as the weather forecast for the second period. The basic electricity demand may be the average, median, mode, maximum, or minimum value of one or more sales amounts. Then, the Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 calculates the electricity demand for the second period by performing calculations on the basic electricity demand according to the customer master table. Calculations based on the customer master table may, for example, involve calculating the electricity demand by reducing a predetermined amount of electricity from the basic electricity demand or by decreasing the coefficient if the customer is closed on a holiday or similar day and electricity consumption is expected to decrease. Conversely, if the day is an event day or similar day and electricity consumption is expected to increase, the electricity demand may be calculated by increasing a predetermined amount of electricity from the basic electricity demand or by increasing the coefficient.

The method for calculating electricity demand is not limited to this, and any existing calculation method may be used. For example, the adjustment electricity forecasting unit 120 only needs to forecast electricity demand based on the amount of electricity sold, and does not need to use at least one of the weather information and the customer master table. In this case, the adjustment electricity forecasting unit 120 may forecast the electricity demand for the second period as the average, median, mode, maximum, or minimum value of the amount of electricity sold during the first period. The first period may include periods with the same attributes as the second period, and the first and second periods may, for example, be periods with the same season, day of the week, or weather information.

The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 then predicts the amount of power adjustment for the second period based on the power demand for the second period and the planned value for the second period. The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may, for example, calculate the difference between the power demand and the planned value as the amount of power adjustment. For example, if the value obtained by subtracting the planned value from the power demand is positive, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may calculate this value as the amount of power shortage. Furthermore, if the value obtained by subtracting the planned value from the power demand is negative, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may calculate the absolute value of this value as the amount of power surplus. In this way, when a power shortage is predicted, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may predict the amount of power to be procured from the wholesale power trading market (an example of power adjustment), and when a power surplus is predicted, it may predict the amount of power to be sold to the wholesale power trading market (an example of power adjustment).

The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 forecasts the amount of power adjustment before the start of bidding in the spot market the previous day. The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 forecasts the amount of power adjustment for each demand time unit. In this way, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 functions as a power adjustment acquisition unit that acquires the power demand for the second period by forecasting that power demand.

Furthermore, the power adjustment prediction unit 120 may predict a power amount including prediction errors as the adjusted power amount. The power adjustment prediction unit 120 may calculate the error in the adjusted power amount based, for example, on variations in the amount of electricity sold, variations in weather information, or customer information. In this way, the power adjustment prediction unit 120 may predict a range of adjusted power amount including upper and lower limits.

The spot market price forecasting unit 130 forecasts the spot market transaction forecast price for the day (second period) in the spot market, based on actual transaction prices (actual spot market transaction prices), in units of demand time. For example, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 forecasts the transaction forecast price in the spot market. The spot market price forecasting unit 130 may also forecast the transaction forecast price for the second period as, for example, the average, median, mode, maximum, or minimum of the actual transaction prices for the first period.

The spot market price forecasting unit 130 may forecast the spot market transaction price to be executed in the spot market on the day (second period) in demand time units, based on actual transaction prices and weather information. The spot market price forecasting unit 130 calculates the spot market transaction price for the second period based on weather information for the first and second periods and the actual spot market transaction price for the first period. Furthermore, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 may calculate the spot market transaction price including estimation error as the actual spot market transaction price. The spot market price forecasting unit 130 may, for example, calculate the estimation error of the spot market transaction price forecast based on the variability of the actual spot market transaction price. In this way, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 may forecast a range of actual spot market transaction prices, including upper and lower limits of the actual spot market transaction price.

The spot market price forecasting unit 130 may calculate the same spot market transaction price nationwide, or it may calculate the same spot market transaction price for each area. The spot market price forecasting unit 130 is an example of the previous day's market price forecasting unit, and the spot market transaction forecast price is an example of the previous day's market transaction forecast price.

The pre-hour market price forecasting unit 140 forecasts the pre-hour market transaction forecast price for the day (second period) in the pre-hour market, based on actual transaction prices (pre-hour market transaction prices), in units of demand time. For example, the pre-hour market price forecasting unit 140 forecasts the transaction forecast price in the pre-hour market. For example, the pre-hour market price forecasting unit 140 may forecast the average, median, mode, maximum, or minimum of the actual transaction prices for the first period as the transaction forecast price for the second period.

The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 forecasts the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price for the day (second period) in demand time units, based on actual transaction prices (pre-hourly market transaction prices) and weather information. The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 calculates the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price for the second period based on weather information for the first and second periods and the actual pre-hourly market transaction prices for the first period. The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may also calculate the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price including estimation error. For example, the pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may calculate the estimation error of the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price based on the variability of actual pre-hourly market transaction prices. Thus, the pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may forecast a range of the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price, including upper and lower limits.

The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may calculate the same pre-hourly market transaction price nationwide, or it may calculate the same pre-hourly market transaction price for each area. The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 is an example of the day-of-day market price forecasting unit, and the pre-hourly market transaction price is an example of the day-of-day market transaction forecasting unit price.

The Spot Market Adjustment Profit/Loss Estimation Unit 150 acquires the Spot Market Adjustment Estimated Profit/Loss, which indicates the profit or loss when trading the adjusted electricity amount in the spot market, on a demand time-limited basis. If the adjusted electricity amount includes a power shortage, the Spot Market Adjustment Profit/Loss Estimation Unit 150 also acquires the Spot Market Procurement Estimated Profit/Loss, which indicates the profit or loss when procuring the adjusted electricity amount from the spot market, on a demand time-limited basis. For example, the Spot Market Adjustment Profit/Loss Estimation Unit 150 acquires the Spot Market Procurement Estimated Profit/Loss when all of the adjusted electricity amount is procured from the spot market. In this embodiment, the Spot Market Adjustment Profit/Loss Estimation Unit 150 estimates the Spot Market Procurement Estimated Profit/Loss, which indicates the profit or loss of the market procurement portion on the previous day, based on the adjusted electricity amount, the electricity sales price, and the predicted transaction price (spot market predicted transaction price). The market procurement portion may be the adjusted electricity amount. Thus, the Spot Market Adjustment Profit/Loss Estimation Unit 150 functions as a Spot Market Adjustment Profit/Loss Acquisition Unit, acquiring the Spot Market Procurement Estimated Profit/Loss by estimating it.

The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market procurement estimated profit/loss by calculating the profit/loss of market procurement based, for example, on (Equation 1) below. The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 calculates the spot market procurement estimated profit/loss for each demand time unit using (Equation 1). For example, if the adjustment amount includes a power shortage, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 calculates the profit/loss for the time period during which the power shortage occurs (for example, the time period "0:00-0:30" shown in Figure 3, described later) using (Equation 1) below.

Estimated profit/loss from spot market procurement = Adjusted electricity amount × (Selling price - Forecasted spot market transaction price) ... (Equation 1)

The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 can also be said to calculate the profit or loss of the retail electricity provider with respect to the adjusted electricity amount. This profit or loss can be either a profit or a loss. For example, if the spot market transaction forecast price exceeds the electricity selling price, a loss may occur.

Furthermore, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 obtains, in demand time units, the spot market sale estimated profit/loss, which indicates the profit or loss when selling the adjusted electricity amount to the spot market, if the adjusted electricity amount includes a surplus of electricity. For example, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 obtains the spot market sale estimated profit/loss when all of the adjusted electricity amount is sold to the spot market. In this embodiment, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market sale estimated profit/loss (spot market sale estimated profit), which indicates the profit or loss related to the surplus in the second period, based on the adjusted electricity amount and the predicted transaction unit price (spot market transaction predicted price). For example, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market sale estimated profit/loss by calculating the profit when the surplus is sold to the spot market based on the following (Equation 2). The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 calculates the profit/loss for the time period during which the power surplus occurs (for example, the time period "0:30-1:00" shown in Figure 3) using the following formula (Equation 2), for example, when the adjustment amount includes a power surplus.

Estimated profit/loss from spot market sales = Adjusted electricity amount × Forecasted spot market transaction price ... (Equation 2)

Furthermore, since it is possible that no buyers will be found for the surplus in the spot market, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 may uniformly set the estimated profit/loss from spot market sales to 0.

The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150, for example, determines, based on the amount of adjusted electricity, which of the calculation formulas (Formula 1) and (Formula 2) to use to calculate the profit/loss for each predetermined period, and then estimates the profit/loss for that predetermined period using the determined calculation formula.

The spot market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 150 is an example of the previous day's market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit, and the spot market procurement estimated profit/loss and spot market sales estimated profit/loss are examples of spot market adjusted estimated profit/loss. The spot market adjusted estimated profit/loss is estimated, for example, at predetermined intervals. The spot market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 150 only needs to estimate at least one of the spot market procurement estimated profit/loss and the spot market sales estimated profit/loss. The spot market adjusted estimated profit/loss only needs to include at least one of the spot market procurement estimated profit/loss and the spot market sales estimated profit/loss. Furthermore, the spot market adjusted estimated profit/loss is an example of the previous day's market adjusted estimated profit/loss.

Furthermore, the spot market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 150 may, for example, estimate the spot market adjusted profit/loss including the error if at least one of the adjusted electricity amount and the spot market transaction forecast price includes an estimation error. The spot market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 150 may also estimate a range of the spot market adjusted profit/loss, including an upper and lower limit for the spot market adjusted profit/loss.

The advance market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 obtains advance market adjustment estimated profit/loss in demand time units, showing the profit or loss when trading the adjustment amount in the advance market. If the adjustment amount includes a power shortage, the advance market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 obtains advance market procurement estimated profit/loss in demand time units, showing the profit or loss when procuring the adjustment amount from the advance market. For example, the advance market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 obtains advance market procurement estimated profit/loss when all of the adjustment amount is procured from the advance market. In this embodiment, the advance market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 estimates advance market procurement estimated profit/loss, showing the profit or loss of market procurement on the day (second period), based on the adjustment amount, the electricity selling price, and the predicted transaction price (advance market transaction predicted price). Market procurement may refer to the adjustment amount. Thus, the pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 functions as a pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit that acquires the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss by estimating the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss.

The pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 estimates the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss by calculating the profit/loss of market procurement based, for example, on (Equation 3) below. The pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 calculates the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss for each demand time unit using (Equation 3). For example, if the adjusted power amount includes a power shortage, the pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 calculates the profit/loss for the time period in which the power shortage occurs (for example, the time period "1:00-1:30" shown in Figure 3) using (Equation 3) below.

Estimated profit/loss from advance market procurement = Adjusted electricity amount × (Selling price - Forecasted advance market transaction price) ... (Equation 3)

The pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 can also be said to calculate the profit or loss of the retail electricity provider with respect to the adjusted electricity amount. This profit or loss can be either a profit or a loss. For example, if the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price exceeds the electricity selling price, a loss may occur.

Furthermore, if the amount of adjusted electricity includes a surplus of electricity, the advance market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 obtains an estimated advance market sale profit/loss in demand time units, which shows the profit or loss when the adjusted electricity is sold to the advance market. For example, the advance market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 obtains an estimated advance market sale profit/loss when all of the adjusted electricity is sold to the advance market. In this embodiment, the advance market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 estimates an estimated advance market sale profit/loss (estimated advance market sale profit) that shows the profit or loss related to the surplus in the second period, based on the amount of adjusted electricity and the predicted transaction unit price (predicted transaction price in the advance market). For example, the advance market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 estimates the estimated advance market sale profit/loss by calculating the profit when the surplus is sold to the advance market based on the following (Equation 4). The pre-market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 calculates, for example, the profit/loss for the time period during which a power surplus occurs, using the following (Equation 4), if the adjustment amount includes a power surplus.

Estimated profit/loss from sale in the market ahead of time = Adjusted electricity amount × Forecasted unit price for transactions in the market ahead of time ... (Equation 4)

Furthermore, since it is possible that no buyers will be found for the surplus in the pre-hours market, the pre-hours market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 may uniformly set the estimated profit/loss for pre-hours market sales to 0.

The pre-market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160, for example, determines, based on the amount of adjusted electricity, which of the calculation formulas (Equation 3) and (Equation 4) to use to calculate the profit/loss for each predetermined period, and then estimates the profit/loss for that predetermined period using the determined calculation formula.

The pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 is an example of the same-day market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit, and the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss and pre-hourly market sales estimated profit/loss are examples of pre-hourly market adjustment estimated profit/loss. The pre-hourly market adjustment estimated profit/loss is estimated, for example, at predetermined intervals. The pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 only needs to estimate at least one of the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss and the pre-hourly market sales estimated profit/loss. The pre-hourly market adjustment estimated profit/loss only needs to include at least one of the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss and the pre-hourly market sales estimated profit/loss. Furthermore, the pre-hourly market adjustment estimated profit/loss is an example of the same-day market adjustment estimated profit/loss.

Furthermore, the pre-hourly market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 160 may, for example, estimate pre-hourly market adjusted profit/loss including estimation errors if at least one of the adjusted power quantity and the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price includes estimation errors. The pre-hourly market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 160 may also estimate a range of pre-hourly market adjusted profit/loss, including upper and lower limits.

The adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the estimated profit/loss adjusted for the spot market and the estimated profit/loss adjusted for the pre-hour market at each demand time unit, and creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison results. For example, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan that includes actions to maximize the retail electricity provider's revenue, based on the comparison results of the estimated profit/loss adjusted for the spot market and the estimated profit/loss adjusted for the pre-hour market at each demand time unit. The adjustment plan creation unit 170 may also, for example, compare the estimated profit/loss in the spot market and the pre-hour market at each demand time unit and create an adjustment plan that takes actions to maximize revenue. It can also be said that the adjustment plan creation unit 170 determines the adjustment plan based on the comparison results.

Furthermore, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 may, when the estimated profit/loss for spot market adjustments and the estimated profit/loss for time-ahead market adjustments are within a range that includes estimation errors, create an adjustment plan that includes actions corresponding to the profit/loss with the smaller estimation error, at least partially overlapping ranges of the estimated profit/loss for spot market adjustments and the estimated profit/loss for time-ahead market adjustments. Here, "actions" include either trading the adjusted electricity quantity in the spot market or trading it in the time-ahead market.

The adjustment plan creation unit 170, as described above, compares the magnitude of the estimated profit/loss for spot market adjustments and the estimated profit/loss for pre-hour market adjustments for each demand time unit, and creates an adjustment plan to trade the adjustment amount in the market with the larger profit. Alternatively, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 may create an adjustment plan that includes the actions for each demand time unit based on the comparison results for each demand time unit.

The output unit 180 outputs information including the adjustment plan created by the adjustment plan creation unit 170 to the presentation unit 300. The output unit 180 is configured, for example, to include a communication circuit (communication module). The information including the adjustment plan includes, for example, the adjustment target and adjustment amount (adjusted power amount) for each demand time unit, but may also include the estimated profit/loss for spot market adjustments and the estimated profit/loss for time-ahead market adjustments.

The memory unit is a storage device that stores the customer master table 191, the supply capacity table 192, and the electricity sales price table 193. The customer master table 191, the supply capacity table 192, and the electricity sales price table 193 may be stored in a single storage device, or they may be stored in different storage devices. The memory unit is implemented using, but is not limited to, an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or non-volatile semiconductor memory.

The customer master table 191 contains customer-specific information, such as location information for the customer's facilities and calendar information. Location information includes, for example, the latitude and longitude of the customer's facilities, and calendar information includes information such as business days and events at the customer's facilities during at least one of the first and second periods. The customer master table 191 is an example of customer information.

Furthermore, calendar information such as working days, business days, and holidays may be included in the customer information, or it may be acquired externally via the weather information acquisition unit 110b. Also, the customer master table 191 may be updated based on the calendar information acquired externally via the weather information acquisition unit 110b.

The supply capacity table 192 registers the planned amount of electricity that retail electricity providers can supply to consumers during the second period (also referred to as the planned supply amount). The supply capacity table 192 is registered, for example, on or before the previous day. The supply capacity table 192 includes, for example, planned values for each predetermined period (e.g., each demand time unit) within the second period. The planned supply amount may also mean the amount of electricity that the retail electricity provider purchases from power generators under bilateral contracts, or, if the retail electricity provider owns power generation facilities (e.g., a power plant), the amount of electricity that the retail electricity provider plans to draw from its own power generation facilities.

The electricity sales price table 193 contains the electricity sales price at which retail electricity providers sell electricity to consumers. The electricity sales price is predetermined, for example, by a contract between the retail electricity provider and the consumer.

The display unit 300 presents information, including the adjustment plan of the retail electricity provider, from the power adjustment plan creation device 100 to the manager of the retail electricity provider. The display unit 300 is, for example, a display device such as a liquid crystal display, and presents the information as an image, but it may also present the information as audio or other means. The display unit 300 may be implemented as a stationary device, or as a display unit on a portable terminal held by the manager of the retail electricity provider. The display unit 300 is, for example, located remotely from the power adjustment plan creation device 100, but is not limited to this.

[1-2. Operation of the Power Adjustment Planning Device]
Next, the operation (power adjustment plan creation method) of the power adjustment plan creation device 100 configured as described above will be explained with reference to Figure 2. Figure 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment. The operation shown in Figure 2 is performed, for example, before bidding on the spot market to adjust the amount of power to be adjusted for the next day (second period). Note that Figure 2 shows an example of operation in which only the spot market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss, and only the time-before market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the time-before market adjustment estimated profit and loss.

As shown in Figure 2, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 acquires sales electricity volume, weather information, and transaction history prices (S101). Specifically, the sales electricity volume acquisition unit 110a acquires the sales electricity volume for the first period, the weather information acquisition unit 110b acquires weather information for the first and second periods, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c acquires the spot market transaction history price and the time-ahead market transaction history price for the first period. The timing and order in which the sales electricity volume acquisition unit 110a, the weather information acquisition unit 110b, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c acquire various types of information are not particularly limited. Furthermore, the first period in which sales electricity volume is acquired and the first period in which transaction history prices are acquired may be the same period or may be different periods.

The electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a outputs the electricity sales volume to the adjusted electricity volume forecasting unit 120. The weather information acquisition unit 110b outputs weather information to at least the spot market price forecasting unit 130 and the hourly market price forecasting unit 140, and in this embodiment, also outputs it to the adjusted electricity volume forecasting unit 120. The market transaction price acquisition unit 110c outputs the actual spot market transaction price to the spot market price forecasting unit 130 and the actual hourly market transaction price to the hourly market price forecasting unit 140.

Next, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 forecasts the power demand for the second period based on at least the amount of power sold, and then forecasts the amount of power adjustment for the second period based on the forecasted power demand and the planned value (supply plan amount) (S102). The following section will mainly describe the process when the forecast for power adjustment includes a power shortage.

The power adjustment amount prediction unit 120 outputs the predicted power adjustment amount to the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 and the time-ahead market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160. The power adjustment amount prediction unit 120 may also output the predicted power adjustment amount to the output unit 180. Step S102 is an example of the first acquisition step.

Next, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 forecasts the spot market transaction price for the day's trades in the spot market, based on actual spot market transaction prices and weather information, in demand time units (S103). The spot market price forecasting unit 130 outputs the forecasted spot market transaction price to the spot market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 150. Alternatively, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 may output the forecasted spot market transaction price to the output unit 180.

Next, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market procurement estimated profit/loss based on the adjusted electricity amount, the electricity sales price, and the spot market transaction forecast price (S104). The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market procurement estimated profit/loss in demand time units, for example, using (Equation 1). The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 outputs the estimated spot market procurement estimated profit/loss to the adjustment plan creation unit 170. Alternatively, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 may output the estimated spot market procurement estimated profit/loss to the output unit 180. Step S104 is an example of the second acquisition step.

Furthermore, if an estimated profit or loss from spot market sales is estimated, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market sales profit or loss if the surplus is sold to the spot market, based on the adjusted electricity amount and the predicted transaction unit price, in step S104. The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market sales profit or loss in demand time units, for example, based on (Equation 2) above. In this case, the spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 outputs the spot market adjustment estimated profit or loss, including either the spot market procurement estimated profit or loss or the spot market sales estimated profit or loss, to the adjustment plan creation unit 170 for each demand time unit.

Next, the pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 forecasts the pre-hourly market transaction price for the day (second period) to be executed in the pre-hourly market, based on the actual transaction price in the pre-hourly market and weather information, in units of demand time (S105). The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 outputs the forecasted pre-hourly market transaction price to the pre-hourly market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 160. Alternatively, the pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may output the forecasted pre-hourly market transaction price to the output unit 180.

Next, the pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 estimates the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss based on the adjusted electricity amount, the electricity sales price, and the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price (S106). The pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 estimates the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss in demand time units, for example, using (Equation 3). The pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 outputs the estimated pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss to the adjustment plan creation unit 170. Alternatively, the pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 may output the estimated pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit/loss to the output unit 180. Step S106 is an example of the third acquisition step.

Furthermore, if the estimated profit or loss from pre-hourly market sales is estimated, the pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 estimates the pre-hourly market sales profit or loss based on the adjusted electricity amount and the predicted transaction unit price in step S106, assuming that the surplus is sold to the pre-hourly market. The pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 estimates the pre-hourly market sales profit or loss for each demand time unit, for example, based on (Equation 4) above. In this case, the pre-hourly market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 outputs the pre-hourly market adjustment estimated profit or loss, including either the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit or loss or the pre-hourly market sales estimated profit or loss, to the adjustment plan creation unit 170 for each demand time unit.

Next, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the estimated profit/loss for spot market adjustments and the estimated profit/loss for time-ahead market adjustments for each demand time unit, and creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison results (S107). Based on the comparison results, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan that includes the result of determining whether to trade the adjustment amount in the spot market or the time-ahead market for each demand time unit. The adjustment plan creation unit 170 outputs the created adjustment plan to the output unit 180. Step S107 is an example of the creation step.

Next, the output unit 180 outputs information including the retail electricity provider's adjustment plan to the display unit 300 (S108). The output unit 180 outputs this information to the display unit 300 before bidding on the spot market for the adjustment of the next day's (second period's) adjustment amount. Step S108 is an example of an output step.

This allows the power adjustment plan creation device 100 to present information, including the retail electricity provider's adjustment plan, to the retail electricity provider's administrator, etc., via the presentation unit 300.

Furthermore, in step S108, the output unit 180 may output at least one of the following to the display unit 300: adjusted power amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, pre-hour market transaction forecast unit price, spot market adjusted estimated profit/loss, and pre-hour market adjusted estimated profit/loss.

This allows the power adjustment plan creation device 100 to present the information used to create the adjustment plan to the manager of the retail electricity provider, etc., via the presentation unit 300.

Here, an example of an image displayed on the display unit 300 will be explained with reference to Figure 3. Figure 3 is a diagram showing an example of the display on the display unit 300 according to this embodiment. Note that it shows unit prices such as A1, A2, B1, B2, etc., and within the same alphabet, a smaller number indicates a lower unit price.

As shown in Figure 3, the adjustment plan includes the date, time period, adjustment target, adjusted electricity amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, and advance market transaction forecast unit price. The adjustment plan may include, in place of, or together with the adjusted electricity amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, and advance market transaction forecast unit price, at least one of the spot market adjusted estimated profit/loss and advance market adjusted estimated profit/loss.

The date (year, month, and day) is the day on which electricity will be supplied, for example, the following day.

The time slots are based on demand time units, and in this embodiment, they are time slots every 30 minutes.

The adjustment destination indicates whether the adjusted electricity amount will be traded in the spot market or the advance market for each demand time unit. For example, "Spot Market" or "Advance Market" will be displayed. Time periods when adjustment is not required are indicated, for example, with a "-".

Adjusted power quantity is information indicating the amount of power to be adjusted (insufficient or surplus power) for each demand time unit. 0 kWh indicates that there is no shortage or surplus power, meaning the predicted power demand matches the planned value.

The spot market trading price is information showing the spot market trading price for each demand time unit. The hour-ahead market trading price is information showing the hour-ahead market trading price for each demand time unit.

The adjustment power requirement for the time period 0:00-0:30 is 2000 kWh short. In this case, it is assumed that 2000 kWh of electricity will be procured from the wholesale electricity trading market. For the time period 0:00-0:30, the predicted spot market trading price A1 (<A2) yen/kWh is lower than the predicted pre-hour market trading price A2 yen/kWh, therefore the source of the 2000 kWh adjustment power is the spot market.

Furthermore, the surplus of adjusted electricity during the time period 0:30-1:00 is 2300 kWh. In this case, it is assumed that 2300 kWh of electricity will be sold to the wholesale electricity trading market. During the time period 0:30-1:00, the predicted spot market trading price of B2 (>B1) yen/kWh is higher than the predicted pre-hour market trading price of B1 yen/kWh, therefore, the spot market is the destination for the 2300 kWh of adjusted electricity.

Furthermore, the adjustment power requirement for the time period 1:00-1:30 is a deficit of 1500 kWh. In this case, it is assumed that 1500 kWh of electricity will be procured from the wholesale electricity trading market. For the time period 1:00-1:30, the spot market trading forecast price C2 (>C1) yen/kWh is higher than the hourly market trading forecast price C1 yen/kWh, therefore, the source of the 1500 kWh adjustment power requirement is the hourly market.

Furthermore, the adjustment plan only needs to include at least the date, time period, and target of the adjustment. Additionally, at least one of the adjusted electricity amount, the spot market transaction forecast unit price, and the hour-ahead market transaction forecast unit price may include an upper and lower limit range.

[1-3. Effects, etc.]
As described above, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment is a power adjustment plan creation device that creates a power adjustment plan when a retail electricity business operator (an example of a business operator that sells electricity) supplies electricity to consumers. The power adjustment plan creation device 100 includes an adjustment power amount forecasting unit 120 (an example of an adjustment power amount acquisition unit) that acquires an adjustment power amount indicating the amount of power that needs to be adjusted from the wholesale power trading market, including the spot market (an example of the previous day market) and the hourly ahead market (an example of the current day market); a spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150 (an example of a previous day market adjustment profit and loss acquisition unit) that acquires a spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment power amount is traded in the spot market in demand time units; an hourly ahead market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 160 (an example of a current day market adjustment profit and loss acquisition unit) that acquires an hourly ahead market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment power amount is traded in the hourly ahead market in demand time units; an adjustment plan creation unit 170 that compares the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss and the hourly ahead market adjustment estimated profit and loss in each demand time unit and creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison results; and an output unit 180 that outputs the adjustment plan.

As a result, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 compares the estimated profit/loss for spot market adjustments with the estimated profit/loss for time-ahead market adjustments, making it possible to create an adjustment plan that includes actions (adjustment targets) corresponding to the higher profit/loss. Therefore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can create a highly economical power adjustment plan. Such an adjustment plan is beneficial for retail electricity providers in creating sales plans.

Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 includes a power sales volume acquisition unit 110a that acquires the power sales volume showing the actual power sales to consumers in the past first period, a market transaction price acquisition unit 110c that acquires the actual transaction price showing the actual power trading market price for the first period, a storage unit that stores the planned value of the amount of power that can be supplied to consumers and the unit price for selling power to consumers, a spot market unit price forecasting unit 130 that forecasts the spot market transaction forecasting unit price to be concluded in the spot market in demand time units based on the spot market transaction forecasting unit price (an example of a first price) included in the transaction forecasting unit price, and a time-ahead market unit price forecasting unit 140 that forecasts the time-ahead market transaction forecasting unit price to be concluded in the time-ahead market for the second period that will be the target of future power supply in demand time units, based on the time-ahead market transaction forecasting unit price (an example of a second price) included in the transaction forecasting unit price. The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 then forecasts the power adjustment amount for the second period based on the power sales amount and planned values. The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market adjustment profit/loss in demand time units based on the power sales price, the spot market transaction forecast price, and the power adjustment amount. The time-ahead market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 estimates the time-ahead market adjustment profit/loss in demand time units based on the power sales price, the time-ahead market transaction forecast price, and the power adjustment amount.

As a result, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can accurately predict the spot market transaction forecast unit price and the time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price by using past performance data. In other words, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can accurately estimate the spot market adjustment estimated profit/loss and the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit/loss. Therefore, even when the difference between the spot market adjustment estimated profit/loss and the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit/loss is small, it can accurately determine the relative magnitudes. Thus, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can create a highly economical power adjustment plan regardless of the magnitude of the difference between the spot market adjustment estimated profit/loss and the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit/loss. Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can obtain the spot market adjustment estimated profit/loss and the time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price by estimation. In other words, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can automatically perform everything from obtaining the spot market adjustment estimated profit/loss and the time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price to creating a highly economical adjustment plan. Therefore, the convenience of the power adjustment plan creation device 100 is improved.

Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 further includes a weather information acquisition unit 110b that acquires weather information for the first and second periods, a storage unit that further stores customer information including at least one of the customer's facility location information and business day information, and the power adjustment amount prediction unit 120 further predicts the power adjustment amount based on the weather information and customer information.

This further improves the accuracy of power adjustment predictions, as the amount of power adjustment is calculated using at least one of weather information and consumer information.

Furthermore, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 further forecasts the spot market transaction price based on weather information, and the time-before market price forecasting unit 140 further forecasts the time-before market transaction price based on weather information.

This will further improve the accuracy of spot market and hourly-ahead market price forecasts, as weather information will be used to calculate both.

Furthermore, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan that includes actions that maximize the profit and loss of the retail electricity provider, based on the comparison results.

This allows the adjustment plan creation unit 170 to create an adjustment plan that maximizes the profit and loss of the retail electricity provider, thus enabling the creation of an even more economically efficient adjustment plan.

Furthermore, as described above, the power adjustment plan creation method according to this embodiment is a power adjustment plan creation method for retail electricity businesses to create a power adjustment plan when supplying electricity to consumers. The power adjustment plan creation method includes: a first acquisition step (S102) of acquiring an adjustment amount indicating the amount of electricity that needs to be adjusted with the wholesale electricity trading market, including the spot market and the advance market; a second acquisition step (S104) of acquiring an estimated spot market adjustment profit/loss indicating the profit/loss when trading the adjustment amount in the spot market, in demand time units; a third acquisition step (S106) of acquiring an estimated advance market adjustment profit/loss indicating the profit/loss when trading the adjustment amount in the advance market, in demand time units; a creation step (S107) of comparing the estimated spot market adjustment profit/loss and the estimated advance market adjustment profit/loss in each demand time unit and creating an adjustment plan based on the comparison results; and an output step (S108) of outputting the adjustment plan.

This achieves the same effect as the power adjustment plan creation device 100 described above.

(Embodiment 2)
In the following, the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 4 and 5. Note that the following description will focus on the differences from Embodiment 1, and the same or similar content as in Embodiment 1 will be omitted or simplified.

[2-1. Configuration of the Power Adjustment Plan Presentation System]
First, the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system equipped with the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figure 4. Figure 4 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1a according to this embodiment. The power adjustment plan creation device 100a of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1a according to this embodiment differs from the power adjustment plan creation device 100 of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 according to Embodiment 1 in that it includes a reception unit 210 that receives input for the adjustment plan presented by the presentation unit 300. Furthermore, at least one of the adjusted power amount acquisition unit, the spot market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit, and the time-ahead market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit is implemented as a user interface unit that receives input in demand time units, and in this embodiment, each of the adjusted power amount acquisition unit, the spot market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit, and the time-ahead market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit is implemented as a user interface unit.

As shown in Figure 4, the power adjustment plan creation device 100a includes a reception unit 210 in addition to the power adjustment plan creation device 100. After the output unit 180 outputs the adjustment plan to the presentation unit 300, the reception unit 210 receives at least one input: the amount of power to be adjusted, the spot market transaction forecast unit price for obtaining the estimated profit/loss of the spot market adjustment, and the time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price for obtaining the estimated profit/loss of the time-ahead market adjustment. The reception unit 210 can also be said to receive input for the adjustment plan. The reception unit 210 may include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., or it may include a sound collection device for receiving voice input, etc.

Furthermore, if the power adjustment plan creation device 100a is configured to predict imbalance unit prices (for example, a configuration including an imbalance unit price prediction unit 410 as shown in Figure 8, which will be described later), the reception unit 210 may acquire the input of the imbalance unit price after the output unit 180 outputs the adjustment plan to the presentation unit 300.

The adjustment plan creation unit 170 updates the adjustment plan based on at least one of the inputs.

[2-2. Operation of the Power Adjustment Planning Device]
Next, the operation (power adjustment plan creation method) of the power adjustment plan creation device 100a configured as described above will be explained with reference to Figure 5. Figure 5 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100a according to this embodiment. The flowchart shown in Figure 5 is executed after the flowchart shown in Figure 2.

As shown in Figure 5, the reception unit 210 receives at least one input of adjusted power quantity, spot market transaction forecast unit price, and time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price (S201). The reception unit 210 obtains this at least one input, for example, from an administrator, but may also obtain this at least one input, for example, by communication. When the reception unit 210 receives input of adjusted power quantity, it outputs the input adjusted power quantity to the adjusted power quantity forecast unit 120, and the adjusted power quantity forecast unit 120 outputs the input adjusted power quantity to the spot market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 150 and the time-ahead market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 160. When the reception unit 210 receives input of spot market transaction forecast unit price, it outputs the input spot market transaction forecast unit price to the spot market unit price forecast unit 130, and the spot market unit price forecast unit 130 outputs the input spot market transaction forecast unit price to the spot market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 150. When the reception unit 210 receives input for the predicted market trading price ahead of time, it outputs the input predicted market trading price ahead of time to the market price forecasting unit 140. The market price forecasting unit 140 then outputs the input predicted market trading price ahead of time to the adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 160.

Furthermore, at least one of the adjusted power quantity forecasting unit 120, the spot market price forecasting unit 130, and the hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may use the input values received by the reception unit 210 to perform the next forecast.

Furthermore, the reception unit 210 may output at least one of the input adjusted power amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, and hourly market transaction forecast unit price to the spot market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 150 or the hourly market adjusted profit/loss estimation unit 160.

Next, the power adjustment plan creation device 100a updates at least one of the spot market adjustment estimated profit/loss and the pre-hour market adjustment estimated profit/loss (S202). The spot market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 150 updates the spot market adjustment estimated profit/loss based on at least one of the adjustment amount and the spot market transaction forecast unit price input to the reception unit 210. The pre-hour market adjustment profit/loss estimation unit 160 also updates the pre-hour market adjustment estimated profit/loss based on at least one of the adjustment amount and the pre-hour market transaction forecast unit price input to the reception unit 210. The updated estimated profit/loss is output to the adjustment plan creation unit 170.

Next, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 updates the adjustment plan based on the updated estimated profit and loss (S203). If both the spot market adjusted estimated profit and loss and the time-ahead market adjusted estimated profit and loss are updated, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the updated spot market adjusted estimated profit and loss and the updated time-ahead market adjusted estimated profit and loss for each demand time unit and updates the adjustment plan based on the comparison result. The adjustment plan creation unit 170 outputs the updated adjustment plan to the output unit 180.

Next, the output unit 180 outputs the updated adjustment plan to the presentation unit 300 (S204).

This allows the power adjustment plan creation device 100a to present information, including the updated adjustment plan of the retail electricity provider, to the retail electricity provider's administrator or other relevant party via the presentation unit 300. The presentation unit 300 may, for example, display the adjustment plans before and after the update side-by-side.

[2-3. Effects, etc.]
As described above, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment further includes a receiving unit 210 that receives at least one input of adjustment amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price, and imbalance forecast unit price after the output unit 180 outputs the adjustment plan. The adjustment plan creation unit 170 then updates the adjustment plan based on the at least one of the adjustment amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, and time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price received by the receiving unit 210.

This allows the power adjustment plan creation device 100 to modify the adjustment plan based on input from a retail electricity provider's administrator or other relevant party when at least one of the predicted values—the adjustment amount, the spot market transaction forecast unit price, the time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price, and the imbalance forecast unit price—is unnatural. Furthermore, if there are factors other than profit and loss (for example, constraints on the adjustment destination or adjustment amount), the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can modify the adjustment plan to reflect those factors.

(Embodiment 3)
In the following, the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 6 and 7. Note that the following description will focus on the differences from Embodiment 1, and the same or similar content as in Embodiment 1 will be omitted or simplified.

[3-1. Configuration of the Power Adjustment Plan Presentation System]
First, the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system equipped with the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figure 6. Figure 6 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1b according to this embodiment. The power adjustment plan creation device 100b of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1b according to this embodiment differs from the power adjustment plan creation device 100 of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 according to Embodiment 1 in that it includes a market bidding unit 310. In addition, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 also outputs the created adjustment plan to the market bidding unit 310.

As shown in Figure 6, the power adjustment plan creation device 100b includes a market bidding unit 310 in addition to the power adjustment plan creation device 100. The market bidding unit 310 executes the process of bidding on the adjustment amount to the wholesale power trading market in demand hour units, based on the adjustment plan. When trading the adjustment amount in the spot market, the market bidding unit 310 bids in the spot market at a predetermined time the previous day. When trading the adjustment amount in the advance market, it bids in the advance market on the current day (second period).

Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100b may further include a bidding information acquisition unit that acquires bidding information related to bids to the wholesale power trading market by the market bidding unit 310. The bidding information acquisition unit may be implemented, for example, by the reception unit 210 shown in Embodiment 2. That is, the reception unit 210 may function as a bidding information acquisition unit that acquires bidding information. The bidding information acquisition unit outputs input information received from the administrator, etc., to the market bidding unit 310. The bidding information may be information indicating permission to execute a bid, or it may be input of the amount of electricity for market adjustment for each demand time unit or the adjustment destination (input to partially change the adjustment plan). The bidding information acquisition unit may also provide an API (Application Programming Interface) and accept input via the API from a terminal such as a smartphone.

[3-2. Operation of the Power Adjustment Planning Device]
Next, the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100b configured as described above (power adjustment plan creation method) will be explained with reference to Figure 7. Figure 7 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100b according to this embodiment. The flowchart shown in Figure 7 includes step S301 in addition to the flowchart shown in Figure 2. Note that, as in Figure 2, Figure 7 shows an example of operation when only the spot market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss, and only the time-before market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the time-before market adjustment estimated profit and loss.

As shown in Figure 7, the market bidding unit 310 executes the bidding process (S301) after the output unit 180 outputs the adjustment plan. The bidding method is not particularly limited, but bidding is executed by inputting into the JEPX website or by performing telegraphic communication such as Web API (using the API of the electricity trading market). Furthermore, if the power adjustment plan creation device 100b is equipped with a display unit, the market bidding unit 310 may display the electricity trading market website on the display unit. This allows for the automation of the process of adjusting the amount of electricity that needs to be adjusted from the planned value (for example, the amount of electricity that is insufficient or surplus).

Furthermore, the market bidding unit 310 executes a bidding process to procure electricity if the amount of electricity to be procured includes a shortage of electricity, and executes a bidding process to sell electricity if the amount of electricity to be procured includes a surplus of electricity.

[3-3. Effects, etc.]
As described above, the power adjustment plan creation device 100b according to this embodiment further comprises a market bidding unit 310 that bids on the amount of power to be adjusted to the power trading market, and a bidding information acquisition unit (for example, the reception unit 210 in Embodiment 2) that acquires bidding information related to the bidding to the wholesale power trading market by the market bidding unit 310.

This allows the power adjustment plan creation device 100b to automatically bid on electricity corresponding to the adjustment amount in the spot market or the advance market, based on the bidding information.

(Embodiment 4)
In the following, the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 8 and 9. Note that the following description will focus on the differences from Embodiment 1, and the same or similar content as in Embodiment 1 will be omitted or simplified.

[4-1. Configuration of the Power Adjustment Plan Presentation System]
First, the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system equipped with the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figure 8. Figure 8 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1c according to this embodiment. The power adjustment plan creation device 100c of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1c according to this embodiment differs from the power adjustment plan creation device 100 of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 according to Embodiment 1 in that it is equipped with various components for estimating imbalance estimated losses. In addition, the weather information acquisition unit 110b also outputs the acquired weather information to the imbalance unit price prediction unit 410.

As shown in Figure 8, the power adjustment plan creation device 100c includes, in addition to the power adjustment plan creation device 100, a supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d, an imbalance price acquisition unit 110e, an imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410, and an imbalance loss estimation unit 420.

The supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d acquires supply reserve rate information, including the power supply reserve rate for each demand time unit during the second period. The supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d may further acquire supply reserve rate information, including the power supply reserve rate for each demand time unit during the first period. For example, the supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d acquires the power supply reserve rate from a server device managing the power supply reserve rate or a general transmission and distribution company, etc., before bidding on the spot market the previous day.

The imbalance price acquisition unit 110e acquires the actual imbalance price for the first period. For example, the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e acquires the actual imbalance price from a server device that manages the actual imbalance price before bidding on the spot market the previous day. The actual imbalance price may be the price (unit price) for each demand time unit. The actual imbalance price represents the actual imbalance unit price.

The supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d and the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e are configured, for example, to include a communication circuit (communication module). At least one of the supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d and the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e may include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., and acquire various information through input from a retail electricity provider's administrator, etc. Furthermore, the supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d and the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e may be implemented as a single device or as separate devices. The supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d and the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e are examples of information acquisition units.

Furthermore, the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e may be implemented as a user interface unit, such as a button, that accepts input for the imbalance forecast unit price in demand time units.

The imbalance price forecasting unit 410 forecasts the imbalance price for the second period, which is the imbalance price, in demand time units, based at least on the supply reserve ratio information. The imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may also forecast the imbalance price for the second period based on the supply reserve ratio information for the second period and a table that associates the supply reserve ratio information with the imbalance price. Furthermore, the imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may, for example, forecast the imbalance price forecast value during a power surplus and the imbalance price forecast value during a power shortage, based on the supply reserve ratio information.

The imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 may forecast the imbalance forecast unit price in demand time units based on supply reserve ratio information and at least one of the actual imbalance unit price and weather information. The imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 may calculate the imbalance price forecast value for the second period (today) based on the supply reserve ratio information for the second period, weather information for the first and second periods, and the actual imbalance price for the first period. The imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 may extract one or more actual imbalance prices from the first period for periods in which the weather information was the same as or similar to that of the second period, and calculate the imbalance price forecast value based on the extracted one or more actual imbalance prices and the imbalance price based on the supply reserve ratio information. The imbalance price forecast value for the second period may be calculated based on the mean, median, mode, maximum or minimum of the actual imbalance prices for the first period and the imbalance price based on the supply reserve ratio information. Furthermore, the imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may calculate the error range of the imbalance price based, for example, on weather information and actual imbalance prices.

Furthermore, the imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may calculate the imbalance price forecast value based on the power supply reserve ratio. For example, the imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may calculate the imbalance price forecast value for each demand time unit (e.g., every 30 minutes) based on the predicted power supply reserve ratio for each area and each demand time unit for the day. The imbalance price forecasting unit 410 is an example of an imbalance price acquisition unit.

It is assumed that the imbalance price when a power shortage occurs will be different from the imbalance price when a power surplus occurs. Therefore, the imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may forecast a first imbalance price forecast value, which is the predicted value of the imbalance price when a power shortage occurs, and a second imbalance price forecast value, which is the predicted value of the imbalance price when a power surplus occurs. The imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may forecast the first imbalance price forecast value based on the first actual imbalance price, which is the actual imbalance price when a power shortage occurs, and forecast the second imbalance price forecast value based on the second actual imbalance price, which is the actual imbalance price when a power surplus occurs. Furthermore, the imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 may forecast the first imbalance forecast unit price for the second period based on the supply reserve ratio information for the second period and a table that associates the supply reserve ratio information with the first imbalance price, and may forecast the second imbalance forecast unit price for the second period based on the supply reserve ratio information and a table that associates the supply reserve ratio information with the second imbalance price.

The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the amount of loss (estimated imbalance loss) in demand time units when an imbalance occurs because the adjusted power amount is not traded with the wholesale power market, based on the adjusted power amount and the predicted imbalance unit price. The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the estimated imbalance loss when the adjusted power amount is not adjusted from the wholesale power market. Specifically, when a shortage of adjusted power is predicted, the imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the amount of loss that would occur if the adjusted power amount is not procured from the wholesale power market, and when a surplus of adjusted power is predicted, it estimates the amount of loss that would occur if the adjusted power amount is not sold to the wholesale power market. The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 is an example of an imbalance loss acquisition unit.

The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the imbalance loss by, for example, calculating the imbalance loss based on the following (Equation 5). The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 calculates the imbalance loss for each demand time unit using (Equation 5).

Estimated Imbalance Loss = Adjusted Power Amount × Predicted Imbalance Unit Price ... (Equation 5)

The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 calculates the imbalance loss using the first imbalance price prediction value in the imbalance prediction unit price of (Equation 5) when a shortage in the adjustment power amount is predicted, and calculates the imbalance loss using the second imbalance price prediction value in the imbalance prediction unit price of (Equation 5) when a surplus in the adjustment power amount is predicted.

Furthermore, in this embodiment, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan based on the estimated spot market adjustment profit/loss, the estimated pre-hour market adjustment profit/loss, and the estimated imbalance loss.

[4-2. Operation of the Power Adjustment Planning Device]
Next, the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100c configured as described above (power adjustment plan creation method) will be explained with reference to Figure 9. Figure 9 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100c according to this embodiment. The flowchart shown in Figure 9 includes steps S401 to S403 in addition to the flowchart shown in Figure 2. Note that, as in Figure 2, Figure 9 shows an example of operation when only the spot market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss, and only the time-before market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the time-before market adjustment estimated profit and loss.

As shown in Figure 9, the information acquisition unit acquires the power supply reserve ratio and the actual imbalance price (S401). The timing of acquiring the power supply reserve ratio (supply reserve ratio information) and the actual imbalance price is not particularly limited; for example, they may be acquired at different times. In step S401, it is sufficient to acquire at least one of the power supply reserve ratio and the actual imbalance price. The information acquisition unit outputs the acquired power supply reserve ratio and actual imbalance price to the imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410. In step S401, the information acquisition unit only needs to acquire the power supply reserve ratio.

Next, the imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 forecasts the imbalance forecast unit price for each demand time unit in the second period based on at least one of the power supply reserve rate and the actual imbalance price, as well as weather information (S402). The imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 outputs the forecasted imbalance unit price to the imbalance loss estimation unit 420.

Next, the imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the imbalance loss for each demand time unit in the second period based on the adjusted power amount and the predicted imbalance unit price (S403). The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the imbalance loss for each demand time unit, for example, by performing the calculation (Equation 5) for each demand time unit. The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 outputs the estimated imbalance loss to the adjustment plan creation unit 170.

Next, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan (S107). In this embodiment, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the estimated profit/loss for spot market adjustments, the estimated profit/loss for advance market adjustments, and the estimated imbalance loss, and creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison results. For example, if the wholesale electricity trading market experiences excessive demand and market prices soar above the electricity selling price, it may be possible to reduce the retail electricity business operator's losses by creating an imbalance. If both the estimated profit/loss for spot market adjustments and the estimated profit/loss for advance market adjustments are losses, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the smaller loss with the estimated imbalance loss, and then creates an adjustment plan that includes actions corresponding to the smaller loss. In this way, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 may create an adjustment plan that minimizes the amount of loss if a loss occurs during a certain time period. The actions here include trading the adjustment amount in the spot market, trading it in the advance market, or creating an imbalance (paying an imbalance fee) without adjusting the adjustment amount.

Steps S401 to S403 may be executed if the estimated spot market adjusted profit/loss estimated in step S104 and the estimated pre-hour market adjusted profit/loss estimated in step S106 are both losses or below a predetermined profit. For example, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 may determine whether or not to execute the processes in steps S401 to S403 based on the estimated spot market adjusted profit/loss estimated in step S104 and the estimated pre-hour market adjusted profit/loss estimated in step S106, and execute steps S401 to S403 only if it determines that it should be executed.

[4-3. Effects, etc.]
As described above, the power adjustment plan creation device 100c according to this embodiment further includes an imbalance loss estimation unit 420 (an example of an imbalance loss acquisition unit) that acquires an estimated imbalance loss in demand time units, which indicates the loss when an imbalance occurs without trading the amount of adjustment power with respect to the wholesale power trading market. The adjustment plan creation unit 170 then creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison results obtained by comparing the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss, the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit and loss, and the imbalance estimated loss.

This allows the power adjustment planning device 100c to determine the power adjustment destination in a way that minimizes losses, for example, when there are time periods in which both the estimated spot market adjustment profit/loss and the estimated pre-hour market adjustment profit/loss result in losses, by comparing the estimated spot market adjustment profit/loss, the estimated pre-hour market adjustment profit/loss, and the estimated imbalance loss. In other words, the power adjustment planning device 100c can reduce the amount of loss when losses occur. Therefore, the power adjustment planning device 100c can create a more economically efficient power adjustment plan.

Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100c further includes an information acquisition unit that acquires supply reserve rate information for the second period, and an imbalance unit price prediction unit 410 that predicts the imbalance forecast unit price for the second period based on the supply reserve rate information. The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 then estimates the imbalance forecast loss in demand time units based on the imbalance forecast unit price and the amount of adjusted power.

This allows the power adjustment planning device 100c to estimate the predicted imbalance unit price and, based on that predicted unit price, estimate the imbalance loss. In other words, the power adjustment planning device 100c can estimate the imbalance loss in the event of an imbalance occurring without trading the adjustment amount in the power trading market.

Furthermore, the imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 forecasts the imbalance unit price based on weather information.

This will further improve the accuracy of the imbalance forecast, as the imbalance forecast unit price will be calculated using weather information.

(Other embodiments)
Although power adjustment planning devices and the like according to one or more embodiments have been described above based on each embodiment, the present invention is not limited to these embodiments. As long as it does not depart from the spirit of the present invention, various modifications that a person skilled in the art can conceive of may be applied to these embodiments, and forms constructed by combining components from different embodiments may also be included in the present invention.

For example, in the embodiments described above, an example was described in which the power adjustment plan presentation system has one presentation unit. However, the number of presentation units is not particularly limited and may be multiple.

Furthermore, while the above embodiments described examples of each acquisition unit being composed of a keyboard, buttons, touch panel, etc., and receiving input from an administrator, etc., they may also be composed of a sound collection device such as a microphone, and receiving voice input from an administrator, etc.

Furthermore, while the above embodiments describe an example where the adjusted power amount acquisition unit acquires the adjusted power amount by predicting it, the unit is not limited to this. The adjusted power amount may also be acquired through input from an administrator or other user. In this case, the adjusted power amount acquisition unit may include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, or a sound collection device that accepts voice input.

Furthermore, while the above embodiments describe an example where the spot market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit acquires the spot market adjustment estimated profit/loss by predicting it, the unit is not limited to this example. The spot market adjustment estimated profit/loss may also be acquired through input from an administrator or other user. In this case, the spot market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit may include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, or a sound collection device that accepts voice input.

Furthermore, while the above-described embodiments explain how the pre-time market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit acquires estimated pre-time market adjustment profit/loss by estimating it, the unit is not limited to this example. Estimated pre-time market adjustment profit/loss may also be acquired through input from an administrator or other user. In this case, the pre-time market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit may include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, or a sound collection device that accepts voice input.

Furthermore, while the example of acquiring the imbalance price in Embodiment 4 described above involves acquiring the predicted imbalance price by predicting the predicted imbalance price, the invention is not limited to this, and the predicted imbalance price may also be acquired through input by an administrator or the like. In this case, the imbalance price acquisition unit may include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., or it may include a sound collection device that accepts voice input, etc.

Furthermore, while the above-described embodiment 4 describes an example where the imbalance loss acquisition unit acquires the estimated imbalance loss by estimating the estimated imbalance loss, it is not limited to this example. The estimated imbalance loss may also be acquired through input from an administrator or other user. In this case, the imbalance loss acquisition unit may include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, or a sound collection device that accepts voice input.

Furthermore, while the above embodiments described an example in which the adjustment plan creation unit determines whether to trade the adjustment amount in the spot market or the advance market for each demand time unit, it is not limited to each demand time unit. For example, the destination for the adjustment amount may be determined at any time interval.

Furthermore, although the above embodiments describe examples where the power adjustment plan creation device and the presentation unit are separate entities, they may be integrated. That is, the power adjustment plan creation device may include a presentation unit as a user interface. In this case, the presentation unit of the power adjustment plan creation device has the same functions as the presentation unit of the power adjustment plan presentation system described in the above embodiments. For example, the presentation unit of the power adjustment plan creation device has the function of presenting the adjustment plan shown in Figure 3. Also, the presentation unit and the reception unit of the power adjustment plan creation device may be implemented as an integrated user interface.

Furthermore, at least one of the adjustment power quantity prediction unit, spot market unit price prediction unit, time-ahead market unit price prediction unit, and imbalance unit price prediction unit in each of the above embodiments may, for example, perform predictions using a machine learning model. The adjustment power quantity prediction unit may, for example, predict future power demand using a machine learning model trained in advance using power sales data for a certain past period, and then predict the adjustment power quantity from the difference between power demand and the planned value. Also, for example, the spot market unit price prediction unit may predict future spot market transaction prices using a machine learning model trained in advance using actual spot market transaction prices for a certain past period and weather information. Also, for example, the time-ahead market unit price prediction unit may predict future time-ahead market transaction prices using a machine learning model trained in advance using actual time-ahead market transaction prices for a certain past period and weather information. Also, for example, the imbalance unit price prediction unit may predict future imbalance prices using a machine learning model trained in advance using imbalance unit prices at the time of imbalance occurrences for a certain past period, power supply reserve ratio, and weather information.

Furthermore, the consumer in each of the above embodiments may be, for example, a single large-scale consumer with an extremely high power load (e.g., a factory), multiple consumers with low power loads (e.g., a typical residential home), or a combination thereof.

Furthermore, while the above embodiments described examples of power adjustment plan creation devices using equations (1) to (5), equations (1) to (5) are illustrative examples, and the use of these calculation formulas is not limited to them.

Furthermore, in each of the above embodiments, each component may be implemented by dedicated hardware or by executing a software program suitable for each component. Each component may also be implemented by a program execution unit, such as a CPU or processor, reading and executing a software program recorded on a recording medium such as a hard disk or semiconductor memory.

Furthermore, the order in which each step in the flowchart is executed is illustrative for the purpose of specifically illustrating the present invention, and may be in a different order. Also, some of the above steps may be executed simultaneously (in parallel) with other steps, and some of the above steps may not be executed.

Furthermore, the division of functional blocks in the functional block diagram is just one example; multiple functional blocks can be implemented as a single functional block, a single functional block can be divided into multiple parts, or some functions can be moved to other functional blocks. Additionally, the functions of multiple functional blocks with similar capabilities may be processed in parallel or time-sharing by a single piece of hardware or software.

Furthermore, the power adjustment planning device according to each of the above embodiments may be implemented as a single device or as a plurality of devices. When the power adjustment planning device is implemented as a plurality of devices, the components of the power adjustment planning device may be distributed among the plurality of devices in any manner. When the power adjustment planning device is implemented as a plurality of devices, the communication method between the plurality of devices is not particularly limited and may be wireless communication or wired communication. Furthermore, wireless and wired communication may be combined between the devices.

Furthermore, these general or specific embodiments may be implemented using systems, methods, integrated circuits, computer programs, or non-temporary recording media such as computer-readable CD-ROMs, or any combination of systems, methods, integrated circuits, computer programs, or recording media. The program may be pre-stored on the recording media or supplied to the recording media via a wide-area communication network, including the Internet.

Furthermore, each component described in the above embodiments may be implemented as software, or typically as an integrated circuit (LSI). These may be individually integrated onto a single chip, or some or all of them may be integrated onto a single chip. While the term LSI is used here, depending on the degree of integration, they may also be referred to as IC, system LSI, super LSI, or ultra LSI. Moreover, the method of integrated circuit implementation is not limited to LSI; it may also be implemented using a dedicated circuit (a general-purpose circuit that executes a dedicated program) or a general-purpose processor. After LSI manufacturing, a programmable FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) or a reconfigurable processor capable of reconfiguring the connections or settings of circuit cells within the LSI may be used. Furthermore, if advances in semiconductor technology or derived technologies lead to the emergence of integrated circuit implementation technologies that replace LSIs, then naturally, those technologies may be used to integrate the components.

A system LSI is a highly functional LSI manufactured by integrating multiple processing units onto a single chip. Specifically, it is a computer system comprising a microprocessor, ROM (Read Only Memory), RAM (Random Access Memory), and other components. The ROM stores the computer program. The system LSI achieves its function by operating according to the computer program, with the microprocessor performing its operations.

Furthermore, one aspect of the present invention may be a computer program that causes a computer to execute each characteristic step included in the power adjustment plan creation method shown in any of Figures 2, 5, 7, and 9.

Furthermore, for example, the program may be a program to be executed by a computer. Also, in one aspect of the present invention, such a program may be recorded on a computer-readable, non-temporary recording medium. For example, such a program may be recorded on a recording medium and distributed or made available. For example, by installing the distributed program into a device having another processor and having that processor execute the program, it becomes possible to have that device perform the above-mentioned processes.

100, 100a, 100b, 100c Power adjustment plan creation device 110a Sales electricity volume acquisition unit 110b Weather information acquisition unit 110c Market transaction price acquisition unit 110d Supply reserve ratio acquisition unit (information acquisition unit)
110e Imbalance Price Acquisition Unit (Information Acquisition Unit)
120 Adjusted Power Quantity Prediction Unit (Adjusted Power Quantity Acquisition Unit)
130 Spot Market Price Forecast Department (Previous Day Market Price Forecast Department)
140-hour prior market price forecast section (Today's market price forecast section)
150 Spot Market Adjusted Profit/Loss Estimation Section (Previous Day Market Adjusted Profit/Loss Acquisition Section)
160 Hourly Market Adjusted Profit and Loss Estimation Department (Same Day Market Adjusted Profit and Loss Acquisition Department)
170 Adjustment Plan Creation Unit 180 Output Unit 191 Customer Master Table (Customer Information)
210 Reception Department 310 Market Bidding Department 410 Imbalance Unit Price Forecasting Department 420 Imbalance Loss Estimation Department (Imbalance Loss Acquisition Department)

Claims (10)

A power adjustment planning device comprising a processor and memory for creating a power adjustment plan when a power retailer supplies power to a consumer,
An adjustment power acquisition unit that acquires an adjustment power amount indicating the amount of electricity that needs to be adjusted with the electricity trading market, including the previous day market and the current day market,
A previous day market adjusted profit/loss acquisition unit that acquires the previous day market adjusted estimated profit/loss, which shows the profit or loss when the adjusted amount of electricity is traded in the previous day market, on a demand time-limited basis,
A unit for acquiring daily market adjustment profit and loss, which acquires the daily market adjustment estimated profit and loss, which shows the profit and loss when the adjusted amount of electricity is traded in the daily market, for each demand time period,
An adjustment plan creation unit compares the estimated profit/loss of the previous day's market adjustment and the estimated profit/loss of the current day's market adjustment for each of the demand time units, and creates an adjustment plan to trade the amount of adjusted electricity in the market with the larger profit.
The system includes an output unit that outputs the adjustment plan to a display device, thereby causing the display device to display the adjustment plan,
The adjustment power acquisition unit, the previous day market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit, the current day market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit, the adjustment plan creation unit, and the output unit are realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory .
The system further includes an imbalance loss acquisition unit that acquires an estimated imbalance loss in the demand time unit, which indicates the loss that would occur if the adjusted amount of electricity were not traded with the aforementioned electricity trading market and an imbalance were to occur.
The adjustment plan creation unit compares the estimated profit/loss based on the previous day's market adjustment and the estimated profit/loss based on the current day's market adjustment with the estimated imbalance loss, and creates the adjustment plan so as to reduce the loss.
The imbalance loss acquisition unit is realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory.
Power adjustment plan creation device. A sales electricity volume acquisition unit that acquires the sales electricity volume showing the actual sales performance of electricity to the aforementioned customer during the first period in the past,
A market transaction price acquisition unit that acquires actual transaction prices showing the actual electricity market prices for the first period,
A storage unit that stores the planned amount of electricity that can be supplied to the customer and the unit price for selling electricity to the customer,
A previous day market price forecasting unit predicts the previous day market transaction forecasting unit price to be executed in the previous day market based on the first price included in the transaction actual price, in the demand time unit,
The system further includes a daily market price forecasting unit that forecasts the daily market transaction forecast unit price to be executed in the daily market for the second period covered by future power supply, based on the second price included in the aforementioned transaction history price, in the aforementioned demand time unit,
The adjustment power acquisition unit predicts the adjustment power amount for the second period based on the sales power amount and the planned value,
The aforementioned previous day market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit estimates the previous day market adjustment estimated profit/loss in the demand time unit based on the electricity sales price, the previous day market transaction forecast price, and the adjusted electricity amount.
The aforementioned daily market adjustment profit/loss acquisition unit estimates the daily market adjustment estimated profit/loss in the demand time unit based on the electricity sales price, the daily market transaction forecast price, and the adjusted electricity amount.
The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the sales power quantity acquisition unit, the market transaction price acquisition unit, the previous day market price forecasting unit, and the current day market price forecasting unit are realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. An information acquisition unit that acquires supply reserve rate information for the second period,
The system further includes an imbalance unit price prediction unit that predicts the imbalance unit price in the second period based on the supply reserve rate information,
The imbalance loss acquisition unit estimates the imbalance loss in the demand time unit based on the predicted imbalance unit price and the adjusted power amount,
The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 2 , wherein the information acquisition unit and the imbalance unit price prediction unit are realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. The system further includes a weather information acquisition unit that acquires weather information for the first period and the second period,
The storage unit further stores customer information, which includes at least one of the location information and business day information of the customer's facility.
The adjustment power acquisition unit further predicts the adjustment power amount based on at least one of the weather information and the customer information,
The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 3 , wherein the weather information acquisition unit is realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. The previous day market price forecasting unit further forecasts the previous day market transaction forecast unit price based on the weather information,
The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 4 , wherein the day-to-day market price forecasting unit further forecasts the day-to-day market transaction forecast unit price based on the weather information. The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 4 or 5 , wherein the imbalance unit price prediction unit further predicts the imbalance prediction unit price based on the weather information. After the output unit outputs the adjustment plan, the system further includes a receiving unit that receives at least one input of the adjustment amount, the previous day's market trading forecast unit price, the current day's market trading forecast unit price, and the imbalance forecast unit price.
The adjustment plan creation unit updates the adjustment plan based on the at least one received by the reception unit.
The power adjustment plan creation device according to any one of claims 3 to 6 , wherein the receiving unit is realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. The power adjustment plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein the adjustment plan creation unit compares the estimated profit and loss of the previous day's market adjustment and the estimated profit and loss of the current day's market adjustment for each of the demand time units and creates the adjustment plan that includes the action that maximizes the profit and loss of the business operator. A market bidding unit that submits the adjusted electricity amount to the aforementioned electricity trading market,
The system further comprises a bidding information acquisition unit that acquires bidding information related to bids made by the market bidding unit to the aforementioned electricity trading market,
The power adjustment plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 8 , wherein the market bidding unit and the bidding information acquisition unit are realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. A method for creating a power adjustment plan, which is performed by a power adjustment plan creation device that creates a power adjustment plan when a power retailer supplies power to consumers,
The first acquisition step involves obtaining an adjusted amount of electricity, which indicates the amount of electricity that needs to be adjusted with the electricity trading market, including the previous day market and the current day market.
A second acquisition step involves acquiring the estimated profit/loss adjusted for the previous day market, which shows the profit/loss when the adjusted amount of electricity is traded in the previous day market, in units of demand time,
A third acquisition step involves acquiring the estimated profit or loss for the day's market adjustment, which shows the profit or loss when the adjusted amount of electricity is traded in the market on that day, for each demand time unit.
A creation step involves comparing the estimated profit/loss of the previous day's market adjustment and the estimated profit/loss of the current day's market adjustment for each of the demand time units, and creating an adjustment plan to trade the amount of adjusted electricity in the market with the larger profit,
The output step includes outputting the adjustment plan to a display device, thereby causing the display device to display the adjustment plan,
Furthermore, an estimated imbalance loss is obtained in the demand time unit, which represents the loss that would occur if the adjusted amount of electricity were not traded with the electricity trading market and an imbalance were to occur.
In the creation step, the estimated profit/loss for market adjustments from the previous day and the estimated profit/loss for market adjustments on the current day are compared with the estimated imbalance loss, and the adjustment plan is created so as to minimize the loss.
The acquisition of the imbalance estimate loss in the demand time unit is achieved by the processor of the power adjustment planning device executing a program stored in the memory of the power adjustment planning device.
Method for creating a power adjustment plan.