superforecasterとは 意味・読み方・使い方

名詞

superforecaster (複数形 superforecasters)

1. One who consistently makes predictions at significantly better than chance accuracy.
   • 2015, Philip Tetlock, ‎Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, →ISBN, page 205:

     On average, when a forecaster did well enough in year 1 to become a superforecaster, and was put on a superforecaster team in year 2, that person became 50% more accurate.

   • 2018, Steve Fuller, Post-Truth: Knowledge As A Power Game, →ISBN:

     An important lesson taught by the gaming approach to warfare is that the superforecaster must be always open to 'unknown unknowns', to use the decision-theoretic jargon popularized by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the Iraq war.

   • 2018, Torleif Halkjelsvik, ‎Magne Jørgensen, Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life, →ISBN, page 51:

     The superforecasters turned out to outperform the other contestants by a substantial margin in the second and third years of the tournament, that is, they were not just lucky.