JP2909275B2 - Heat source prediction controller - Google Patents

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a heating and cooling heat source plant having a heat storage tank, and more particularly to a heat source predictive control device for efficiently operating a heat storage tank and heat source equipment.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In a heating and cooling heat source plant having a heat storage tank, hot water and cold water are generated by a heat source device such as a heat pump and stored in the heat storage tank, and supplied to a heat load device such as a cooling and heating device as required. .

In general, in an electric air conditioning system, heat is generated from electric power at night to store heat, and the stored heat is radiated during the day to perform efficient operation such as peak cutting using night electric power. Is being done. That is,
Plan the operation schedule of a cooling and heating plant equipped with a plurality of heat source devices and heat storage tanks that are appropriate from the viewpoint of power smoothing, night shift, etc., and from the viewpoint of improving the reliability of the cooling and heating system, provide a stable supply of heat and heat sources. An intellectual operation for ensuring safe operation of the equipment is performed by an operator.

In practice, an operator predicts a heat load based on past measured data or empirical knowledge, constantly monitors a heat storage state or a heat source operation state, and adjusts a heat source operation schedule according to the change in the state. Further, the operation of the heat source operation is performed so that the operation state of the heat source is constantly monitored so that the operation does not become abnormal.

[0005]

As described above, the conventional method of supplying a heat source from a heat source device to a heat load requires an intelligent operation for adjusting a heat source operation schedule and performing safe operation. Operator intervention is essential. However, in recent years, it is difficult to secure the number of specialized operators, and labor costs have been rising. Therefore, it has become necessary to operate the vehicle unattended only at night, for example. In this case, a comprehensive automation technology based on the expert knowledge of the intelligent operator is required.

[0006] Even if the operator is secured, there is a case where the prediction of the heat source operation schedule is incorrect, but there is a case where it is not possible to quickly and appropriately respond to such a case. Further, since it is difficult for one operator to constantly monitor, a plurality of operators are required, and monitoring and adjustment work of each person requires long experience. There is a problem that the operation becomes uneven due to the difference in the experience of the above, and the quality of both efficiency and stable supply is deteriorated, and in some cases, an operation error occurs.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION It is an object of the present invention to ensure stable supply and safe operation of a heat source by eliminating a mistake in prediction of a heat load by an operator, and to appropriately start and stop a heat source in an emergency, and to efficiently perform heat source equipment. Another object of the present invention is to provide a heat source prediction control device that can automatically operate a heat storage tank.

[0008]

According to the present invention, in order to achieve the above object, cold water and hot water are produced by a heat source device, stored in a heat storage tank, and supplied to a heat load device such as a cooling and heating device as required. In a control system of a cooling and heating heat storage plant having a heat supply system, a measured value input means for inputting a temperature distribution of the heat storage tank, an inlet / outlet temperature of the heat source device, and a measured value of a flow rate of the heat supply system and a return water temperature, respectively. When,
Information input means capable of inputting weather information such as temperature, statistical processing calculating means for classifying data input from the measured value input means for each day of the week and executing an average value calculation or filter calculation; and statistical processing calculating means Information storage means for storing the actual value of the temperature and flow rate processed by the above and the weather data inputted from the information input means, and the actual value of the temperature, flow rate, weather information and day of the week stored in this information storage means Load calculation means for predicting the heat load during the night time and the next day based on the load prediction value obtained from the load prediction calculation means, to improve the nighttime utilization rate, the operation during the peak cut time period, and the efficiency by the heat recovery operation Storage tank operation plan calculation means for determining a heat storage tank operation plan for performing efficient operation, and start and stop with the operation plan value obtained from this heat storage tank operation plan calculation means as the target A heat source equipment operation plan calculating means for making an operation plan of the heat source equipment capable of stably changing the heat storage in the heat storage tank; and a heat source equipment control schedule obtained by the heat source equipment operation plan calculation means, And output means for outputting to the heat source device control means for controlling the start and stop of the heat source.

Further, in addition to the above configuration, the present invention monitors a process measurement value input from the measurement value input means and compares it with an operation plan value obtained from the heat source equipment operation plan calculation means to efficiently operate the process. Monitoring means capable of requesting a plan correction to determine the degree of stable supply and the degree of stable supply, and when the plan correction request is issued, the monitoring means corrects the necessary heat source equipment operation plan or newly starts and stops the heat source equipment And a heat source equipment operation plan correction calculating means for correcting the plan by either one of the following and re-planning, and outputting the heat source equipment control schedule from the output means to the heat source equipment control means for controlling start and stop of the heat source equipment. I have to.

[0010]

In the heat source equipment control device having such a configuration, when the load prediction calculation means predicts the heat load at the scheduled time ahead based on the past heat load results and the weather forecast input value of the next day at a fixed time. The heat storage tank operation plan calculation means makes an operation plan for the heat storage tank based on the heat load prediction value based on the heat storage tank capacity and night shift rate improvement, peak cut, stable heat storage of cold and hot water, and further calculates a heat source device operation plan. Means to make a heat source operation plan ahead of the scheduled time for the purpose of efficiency based on the operation plan of this heat storage tank and the rated capacity of the heat source, and to output the heat source device control schedule to the heat source device control means from the output means, The heat source device control means controls the start and stop of the heat source device if the control conditions are satisfied, and it is possible to achieve efficient automation of the heat source control.

While the heat source equipment is started and stopped in accordance with the above heat source equipment control schedule, a deviation from a plan actually occurs due to accumulation of prediction errors due to statistical properties. The degree of this deviation is monitored by the means, and if necessary, the plan can be corrected by the heat source device operation plan correction calculating means, and an alarm can be output, whereby safe driving can be performed. Therefore, the power leveling operation in the daytime can be performed by accumulating the energy using the nighttime power by such an operation.

[0012]

An embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 shows an example of the configuration of a heat source prediction control device according to the present invention. In FIG. 1, reference numeral 1 denotes a heat storage plant provided in a basement of a building or the like.
Supplies cold or hot water from the cold water tank 5 and the hot water tank 6 to the heat load 2 such as air conditioning, cooling, or hot water supply.
The heat is supplied by the pump 3 through the hot water header 4b to supply co-heating. In this case, the return water temperature of each supply system is measured by the thermometer 9, and the flow rate of the water supply is measured by the flow meter 17. The temperature distribution of the cold water tank 5 and the hot water tank 6 is measured by the thermometer 9, and the temperatures at the inlet and outlet of each heat source device are also measured by the thermometer 9.

The heat storage plant 1 is generally provided with a plurality of various heat pumps (heat source devices) 7 and 8. For example, in summer, the heat pump 7 supplies
It can be water of about ° C. Further, the heat recovery (DB) heat pump 8 can simultaneously produce water of about 5 ° C. and hot water of about 45 ° C. Therefore, since the heat output at this time can be used for both, it is possible to improve the heat efficiency.

The process measurement value 10 measured by each of the thermometer 9 and the flow meter 17 is transmitted to the heat source device controller 1.
1, and a control signal is transmitted from the heat source device control device 11 to the heat source device prediction control device 13 via the transmission device 12.

The heat source device control device 11 determines a heat source device control signal 15 based on a heat source device control schedule 14 and a process measurement value 10 transmitted from a heat source device prediction control device 13 which will be described in detail later, and performs control. To do. The heat source device prediction control device 13 is connected to the CRT 16 and is connected to the heat source device control device 11 and the transmission device 12, and the inside thereof is configured as follows.

The heat source device prediction control device 13 includes an input unit 21 for inputting data transmitted from the heat source device control device 11 via the transmission device 12, an output unit 35, and a CRT.
It has a man-machine input unit 25 and a man-machine output unit 36 for processing 16 inputs and outputs, and controls each input and output. The data input to the input unit 25 is stored in the process data storage unit 2.
2, and the load and weather data input from the CRT 16 to the man-machine input unit 25 are stored in the load / weather data storage unit 24.

On the other hand, the heat load data processing function comprises a load prediction means to which an expert system is applied, an operation plan creation means, and an operation plan monitoring means. The load predicting means classifies the water supply flow rate and the return water temperature among the process data stored in the process data storage unit 22 for each day of the week, and uses the actual value obtained by the average value calculation or the filter calculation as the load data. The statistical processing calculation unit 23, the calendar 26, and the load
A heat load prediction calculation unit 27 for predicting the heat load of the day based on the load data and the weather data stored in the weather data storage unit 24 and the day data of the day input from the calendar 26, Heat load prediction calculation unit 2
The load predicted value predicted in 7 is stored in the load predicted value storage unit 28.

The operation plan creating means includes a predicted load value storage unit 2
The operation of the heat storage tank is planned by obtaining the heat production capacity and the heat storage capacity from the load prediction values stored in the storage unit 8 and the operation modes of the heat source device and the heat storage tank, and the operation of the heat storage tank is stored in the operation plan storage unit 30. An operation unit 29 and a heat source device operation plan operation unit 31 for making an operation plan of a heat source device based on the above-described load predicted value and the heat storage tank operation plan data stored in the operation plan storage unit 30 are provided. Heat source equipment operation plan calculation unit 3
The operation plan data set by 1 is stored in the operation plan data storage unit 32.

The operation plan monitoring means includes: process data stored in the process data storage section 22; heat storage tank operation plan data stored in the operation plan storage section 30; and heat source equipment stored in the operation plan storage section 31. Based on the operation plan data, a monitoring unit 33 that determines whether a failure occurs in the operation of the plant based on the operation plan data and whether there is a possibility that the failure will occur in the future. The monitoring unit 33 determines that there is a failure in the stable supply of heat. Then, a heat source device operation plan correction calculation unit 34 for correcting the operation plan is configured.

The data output from each of these arithmetic units includes a load prediction value, an operation plan data, and an operation plan data. The operation plan data and the load prediction value are output to the CRT 16, and the operation plan data is combined with a heat source. Equipment control device 11
Is output to Next, the operation of the heat source prediction control device configured as described above will be described.

First, a process measurement value is input from the input unit 21 and stored in the process data storage unit 22. Among them, the water supply flow rate and the return water temperature are statistically processed by the statistical processing operation unit 23 and stored in the load / weather data storage unit 24. The load / weather data storage unit 2 also combines the weather data input from the CRT 16 by the man-machine input unit 25.
4 is stored.

When the data is stored in each storage unit as described above, the load prediction calculation unit 27, the heat storage tank operation plan calculation unit 29,
The heat source device operation plan calculation unit 31, the monitoring unit 33, and the heat source device operation plan correction calculation unit 34 execute the following processing based on each data. (1) Processing in the load prediction calculation unit 27 The heat load data for one day every hour is filed for each day of the week, for example, for holidays (w = 1), weekdays (w = 2), and special days (w = 3). Keep it.

[0024] When the day of the week of the day is input from the calendar 26, the average value pattern Y _w of the day of the week can be obtained. Next, the heat loads Y _w-1 (k-1) and Y _w-2 (k-
Assuming that 2) was obtained, the heat load of the day is predicted using the following model, for example. _{Y w = a1 · (Y w} -1 (k-1) -Yw-1) + a2 · (Y w-2 (k-2) -Yw-2) + ...... + bΔQ + Y w ...... (1) here, Y _w (k): Heat load forecast value of the day [Gcal] ｛Δ
Q: Predicted temperature [%]-Average temperature [° C]｝, a1, a2, ...
... B: parameters a1, a2,... B are parameters of the model, and can be given in advance.
It is also possible to perform a power estimation (Kalman filter).

After all, the predicted value Y _w (k) [Gcal] of the day is obtained, so that the hourly heat load average value y _w (i) (i =
From 1 to 24), when proximate at the ratio of each time zone, a predicted value y _w (k, i) (i = 1 to 24) [Gcal] for one hour every 24 hours on the day is obtained. The result obtained in this way is stored in the load predicted value storage unit 28. (2) Processing in the heat storage tank operation plan calculation unit 29 The heat production capacity and the heat storage capacity are obtained from the predicted heat load value and the operation mode (cold water / hot water) of the heat source device and the heat storage tank, and the operation of the heat storage tank is planned. Taking into account the effective use of nighttime power and the peak power cut, the following four time zones are basically used, and an operation guideline for each time zone is formulated immediately before the start time of each time zone. a. Night (22: 00-8: 00) b. Morning (8: 00-13: 00)… Summer (8: 00-16: 00)… Winter c. Peak cut (13: 00-16: 00)… Summer (16: 00-18: 00)… Winter d. Evening (16: 00-22: 00)… Summer (18: 00-22: 00)… Winter To operate the heat storage tank efficiently and store heat stably. Improvement of nighttime power use efficiency b. Therefore, reduction of residual heat storage at 22:00 (use up during the day) c. Peak cut d. Cold / hot water management, that is, the amount of cold / hot water is safely stored in accordance with the heat storage capacity during simultaneous generation of cold / hot water. In accordance with the above, the processing contents of the heat storage tank operation plan calculation unit 29 will be described with reference to the flow shown in FIG.

First, in step ST1, initialization and data reading are performed, and in step ST2, an operation is executed using the heat source-heat storage tank, the connection relationship, the cold / hot water heat storage capacity, and the heat source production capacity as parameters based on the predicted heat load value. Then, make a night heat storage plan and a residual heat control plan.

For example, the heat storage target of the cold / hot water and the heat storage / radiation leading operation index for each time zone are determined so that the heat storage transition becomes maximum at 8:00 and minimum at 22:00. Also, the heat storage transition determines the heat production target required to achieve the target. And these cold / hot water heat storage target, cold / hot water heat generation target, heat storage /
Outputs the heat dissipation driven operation index.

In step ST3, the heat generation target and the heat storage target output from step ST2 are taken in, and a calculation is executed using the heat source production capacity and the cold / hot water heat storage capacity as parameters.
Develop a hot and cold water management plan. For example, in order to efficiently perform the heat recovery operation, a cold / hot water-driven operation index is determined as the operation index of the cold / hot / DB heat source. <Case A> In case of cold water initiative Available <Case B> In case of hot water initiative (B-1) Operation is possible only with DB Available (B-2) In case of needing specialty in hot water Cold water surplus (alarm) Then, a heat production target and a cold / hot water driven operation index for each heat source type are output.

Next, in step ST4, a calculation is executed based on the predicted heat load value using the cold / hot water heat storage capacity, the heat source heat production capacity, and the periodic adjustment time as parameters, and a periodic adjustment contract and an operation guideline are set.

That is, the heat production target and the heat storage target at the time of the regular adjustment contract are determined, and the heat release target and the heat regulation target at the regular adjustment time zone are output as the heat storage tank operation plan in step ST5, and the operation plan is stored. The information is stored in the unit 30.

FIG. 8 shows the concept of heat storage described above in relation to time and heat storage amount. In addition, the cold / hot water initiative described in step ST3 means 8:
In 00, cold water is in the full heat storage state, but hot water is not in the full heat storage state in some cases. This is a technique for increasing efficiency using a heat recovery heat pump. FIG. 9 shows a case driven by cold water. (3) Processing in heat source equipment operation plan calculation unit 31

Data is taken in from the heat load predicted value storage unit 28 and the operation plan storage unit 30, respectively, and calculations are executed.
The resulting heat storage device operation plan data is stored in the operation plan storage unit 32. The heat storage device operation plan data stored in the operation plan storage unit 32 is converted into a heat source device control schedule 14 as information that can be input to the heat source device control device 11 by the output unit 35 and transmitted to the heat source device control device 11. Is done. Therefore, the heat source device control device 1
In 1, the heat source device is controlled according to the heat source device control schedule 14. In this case, the control timing of the heat source equipment is set immediately after the heat storage tank operation plan. Here, the processing in the heat source device operation plan calculation unit 31 is as follows.

First, an estimated heat storage amount at a planning target start time predicted based on a load predicted value and a measured value for N hours (ex. N = 24) one hour ahead is input, and various heat source units for one hour are input. Make an operation plan. Then modify it to a finer schedule.

As shown in FIG. 10, in the case of cold water storage from the temperature profile of the heat storage tank, as shown in FIG.
Return water regulation temperature θRO [° C] and volume Vi of section i
[m ³ ], Heat storage efficiency η, and Σ from i = j to k: Q = {(θRO−θi) · Vi · η} + (θRO−θSO) · (θSO−θk / θk + 1−θk) · Vk + 1 · η ... ( 2) θk ≦ θSO and _{Q k + 1> Q so ...} (3)

Is obtained. Here, the first term on the right side of the equation (1) is the heat quantity of the portion where the temperature of the heat storage tank is equal to or lower than the specified water supply temperature, and the second term is the water supply regulation in the portion where the temperature of the heat storage tank exceeds the specified water supply temperature. It means the amount of heat up to the temperature. In the case of hot water heat storage, for example, it is obtained by an autoregressive model.

Next, the processing contents of the heat source equipment operation plan calculation section 31 will be described with reference to the flow shown in FIG. First, step S
Initialization and data reading are performed in T6, and step ST7 is performed.
Based on the heat load predicted value, heat storage target, heat storage / radiation, initiative operation index, and cold / hot water initiative operation index, calculation is performed using the heat source heat production capacity, cold / hot water storage capacity, and contract power as parameters, and Create a heat source operation schedule. In other words, the heat source operation schedule is generated in units of one hour by heuristics using heuristics for the operation pattern of the heat source while limiting the heat storage amount of the hot and cold water, the heat source capacity, and the electric energy. Evaluate these schedules for leveling (peak cut, regular adjustment contract, etc.), continuous operation (reduction of startup loss), and cold / hot water management (efficient use of DB), and select the schedule that best meets the policy. Then, the heat source operation schedule (on an hourly basis) is output.

Next, in step ST8, based on the heat source operation schedule (one hour unit), the heat storage target, and the predicted heat load value, a calculation is executed using the heat source heat production capacity, the cold / hot water storage capacity, and the operation plan as parameters. Modify the operation schedule (in 5 minute units). That is, the expected amount of heat stored when the heat source is operated according to the heat source operation schedule in units of one hour is calculated, and the deviation from the heat storage target created in the operation guideline is absorbed by correction in units of m minutes. At this time, the schedule is shortened, extended and continuous using detailed know-how (ex.m = 6). Then, in step ST7, the heat source operation schedule (in units of m) is output and stored in the operation storage unit 32.

Here, among the processing contents shown in FIG. 3, the details of step ST7 are shown in the flowchart of FIG. In FIG. 4, the initial setting of the time zone is performed in step ST7-1, and the time zone policy mainly for continuation is executed from the initial time in step ST7-2, and the combination of driving is set. In step ST7-3, the evaluation value is initialized, and in step ST7-4, a feasible solution is obtained based on heuristic knowledge, and a heat source operation plan is generated, and step S7 is performed.
The process proceeds to T7-5, and if a possible solution is not obtained, the process proceeds to Step ST7-8. In step ST7-5, the heat source operation schedule is evaluated. In this case, the evaluation terms include: (a) the total running time is minimum; (b) the number of starts / stops is minimum; (c) the effective utilization rate of heat recovery is maximum (simultaneous start-up penalty for cooling and heating); Are evaluated in a hierarchical manner using the ε-constrain method in the form of constraints.

It is determined whether or not the evaluation value thus evaluated is improved in step ST7-6. If the evaluation value is improved, the heat source operation plan is updated in step ST7-7, and the process proceeds to step ST7-8. The process proceeds to step ST7-8 if the condition has not been improved. Step ST7-8
Then, it is determined whether or not all the heat source priorities have been evaluated. If all the heat source priorities have been evaluated, the process proceeds to step ST7-9. If all the heat source priorities have not been evaluated, the combination is updated based on the heat source priorities and the process proceeds to step ST7-4. Return to

In step ST7-9, it is determined whether or not the processing has been completed for all time zones.
At 7-10, a heat source operation plan is set, and if not completed for all time zones, the time zone is updated and step ST7-
Return to 2.

FIG. 5 shows the flow of generation of the heat source operation plan in step ST7-4 of FIG. 4 in more detail.
In FIG. 5, when the generation of the heat source operation plan starts, the time, the heat storage amount, and the on / off of the heat source are initialized in step ST7-4a, and in step ST7-4b, it is possible to evaluate and execute the restrictions. Determine whether In this case, the evaluation of the constraints is based on (a) constraints on heat storage (b) constraints on residual heat storage at 22:00, and (c) constraints on power consumption.

If it is determined in step ST7-4b that the heat source cannot be executed, on / off of the heat source is set in step ST7-4c based on heuristics, and in step ST7-4d, steps ST7-4b are repeated. Similarly, it is determined whether or not execution is possible. This step ST7
If it is determined that the update is not executable even in the case of -4d, it is determined in step ST7-4e whether or not the update of the on / off of the heat source is completed. If the update is not completed, the on / off of the heat source is updated. The process returns to step ST7-4d, and if completed, proceeds to step ST7-4f. This step S
In T7-4f, the success or failure is determined, and if not, it is determined that the processing has ended with an error. If the determination is successful, it is determined in step ST7-4g whether the processing has been completed for all times. Update, the on / off of the heat source is continued, and the process returns to step ST7-4b.

If it is determined in steps ST7-4b and ST7-4d that the program can be executed,
In step ST7-4g, it is determined whether the process has been completed for all times. (4) Processing in the monitoring unit 33

The latest plant measurement data and control schedule are input, and it is determined whether a failure has occurred in the operation of the plant or whether there is a possibility that it will occur in the future with reference to the predicted load value. If a defect related to supply is detected, a plan correction is requested. Since it is desirable to monitor this function continuously, it is necessary to use an n-minute cycle (ex.n = 1 o
rn = 15) is the timing. Next, the processing contents of the monitoring unit 33 will be described with reference to the flow shown in FIG.

In FIG. 6, a step ST10 is a processing section for performing a nighttime heat storage plan, a residual heat amount control plan, and a controllable heat storage amount. Capacity, heat source production capacity, heat storage target,
The calculation is executed using the target allowable error as a parameter. In other words, if the expected amount of heat storage from the present to 22:00 hours based on the remaining heat storage, heat load prediction value, and current operation plan, there is no defect (excess or insufficient heat), and if the plan needs to be corrected Make that request. In the heat storage / radiation operation, a message is output when the error between the actual heat storage amount and the planned heat storage amount at every hour is equal to or more than an allowable error. The output information in this processing unit includes defect information (for each temperature), defect amount, expected defect occurrence time, and plan correction request.

Step ST11 is a processing section for performing a heat source trip, a failure response, and a heat source non-operation response.
The calculation is executed using the heat source failure state, the heat source operation state, and the operation plan as input data. That is, when a trip or faulty heat source is detected during the planned operation, a message is notified. If the scheduled start and stop time of the heat source has passed, but the heat source is not operating, a message is notified. When these results affect the heat storage plan, a plan correction is required. (5) Processing in the heat source equipment operation plan correction calculation unit 34

The monitoring unit 33 corrects an unbalanced operation plan of heat supply caused by a change in the heat load and a change in the state of the heat source device. In particular, when it is necessary to start and stop a new heat source device, the plan is reestablished (re-planning) by executing the same processing as the operation plan of (3). The operation timing of the heat source device operation plan correction calculation unit 34 starts when the monitoring unit 33 requests correction. Next, the processing content of the heat source equipment operation plan correction calculation unit 34 will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

When there is a correction request from the monitoring unit 33, initialization and data reading are performed in step ST12. This data includes undercooling warning heat source, load rise, delay time,
It takes in the amount of heat storage and residual heat, performs calculations using the heat source-heat storage tank, connection relationship, closed heat source, production capacity, heat storage upper and lower limit values, and residual heat target value as parameters, and uses the monitoring results to determine the current plant fault items. Determine. Then, as a result of the determination, a supercooling heat source number, a rising delay load (cooling / hot water), a heat storage control amount, and a residual heat amount deviation are output.

In step ST13, the malfunction / non-operation heat source number, the operation plan, and the predicted value of the heat load are fetched, and the calculation is executed using the heat source heat production capacity as a parameter. Are all canceled, and the heat storage prediction amount is calculated again. Then, the corrected operation plan and the predicted heat storage amount are output, and the process proceeds to step ST15 in step ST14 in response to the load rise delay.

At step ST15, the operation plan, the predicted heat storage amount, the target heat storage, the power demand, the predicted heat load value, and the residual heat amount deviation are taken in, and the calculation is executed using the heat source heat production capacity, the heat source power consumption, and the upper and lower limit value of the heat storage as parameters. I do. That is, when it is expected that the predicted heat storage amount at the time when the heat storage target is set deviates from the target by more than the allowable error, the current operation plan is modified by adjusting the start / stop time and corrected. , The estimated amount of heat storage is output, and step ST
Proceed to 16. In step ST16, it is determined whether or not the abnormal amount has been eliminated by adjusting the start / stop time. If it is determined that the abnormal amount cannot be eliminated only by adjusting the current start / stop time, a warning message (re-planning request) is issued. ) Is output, and if it is determined that the abnormal amount can be eliminated, the process proceeds to step ST17.

In step ST17, it is determined from the operation plan and the current time whether or not the time at which the correction plan must be actually applied is within 2 hours from the current time. The expected amount is output as a correction plan, and if not, a warning message (ex.l = 3) indicating that the situation is to be observed for a while is output.

As described above, in the heat source device prediction device 13 according to the present embodiment, the load prediction calculation unit 27, the heat storage tank operation plan calculation unit 29, the heat source device operation plan calculation unit 31, the monitoring unit 3
3 and the heat source equipment operation plan correction calculation unit 34 to obtain a control schedule, which is obtained by the heat source equipment control device 11
To control the heat storage plant, it becomes possible to plan the heat storage using nighttime electric power in anticipation of the daytime heat load, and the daytime load peak can be cut off systematically. Further, even when the load prediction, which is a prerequisite for planned operation, has an error, stable supply control can be performed, and automatic control can be performed.

Further, the monitoring unit 33 constantly monitors the state of heat storage and the state of heat load, and can urgently activate the heat source at the time of urgent heat demand, thereby avoiding a delay in heat supply due to an operation delay of the operator. it can.

Further, the operation status of the heat source is monitored, and when the heat source is expected to be dangerous or in an emergency, the heat source can be stopped to prevent the destruction or failure of the heat source by stopping the heat source. Further, since the determination of the stable heat supply and the determination of the safe operation of the heat source are performed based on the determination rules of the expert system, even the inexperienced operator can easily perform the operation management of the heat source.

In the above embodiment, a multiple regression model in which a weather forecast is input is used for heat load prediction. However, an autoregression model can be used. In this case, there is no need to input weather data. Further, in the above embodiment, the expert system is applied. However, in a simple plant, it is possible to cope with logic. Furthermore, various modifications can be made without a heat recovery type heat pump, or in various other forms without departing from the gist of the present invention.

[0056]

As described above, according to the present invention, the burden on the operator can be reduced and stable supply of the heat source and safe operation can be ensured, and the start and stop of the heat source can be appropriately performed in an emergency. It is possible to provide a heat source prediction control device capable of automatically and efficiently operating a heat source device and a heat storage tank.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a configuration explanatory view showing one embodiment of a heat source prediction control device according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing processing contents of a heat storage tank operation plan calculation unit in the embodiment.

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing processing contents of a heat source device operation plan calculation unit in the embodiment.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a heat source operation schedule creation process of FIG. 3;

FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing details of a heat source operation planning process in FIG. 4;

FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing processing contents of a monitoring unit in the embodiment.

FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing processing contents of a heat source device operation plan correction calculation unit in the embodiment.

FIG. 8 is a graph showing an example of a heat storage transition.

FIG. 9 is a graph showing a guideline for giving priority to cold or hot water in the heat storage transition.

FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram of a heat transferable heat storage amount.

[Explanation of symbols]

1 ... heat storage plant, 2 ... heat load, 3 ... pump, 4
a, 4b: hot water, cold water header, 5: cold water tank, 6 ...
Hot water tank, 7 heat pump, 8 heat recovery type heat pump, 9 thermometer, 11 heat source device control device, 12
…… Transmission device 13… Heat source device prediction control device 16…
... CRT, 17 ... flow meter, 21 ... input unit, 23 ...
Statistical processing operation unit, 25 ... Man-machine input unit, 26 ...
Calendar, 27: Load prediction calculation unit, 29: Heat storage tank operation plan calculation unit, 31: Heat source device operation plan calculation unit, 3
3 monitoring unit 34 heat source device operation plan correction calculation unit
35 ... output part, 36 ... man-machine output part.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continued on front page (72) Inventor Masaki Obayashi 1-3-1, Uchisaiwaicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Inside Tokyo Electric Power Company (72) Inventor Tetsuro Ishida 1-3-1, Uchisaiwaicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo TEPCO Inside (72) Inventor Shuichiro Kobayashi 1 Toshiba-cho, Fuchu-shi, Tokyo Inside the Toshiba Fuchu Plant (72) Inventor Takashi Yamada 1-24-30 Minamieki Minamieki, Nakamura-ku, Nagoya-shi, Aichi Co., Ltd. Toshiba Chubu Branch Office (72) Inventor Takao Nosaka 1 Toshiba-cho, Fuchu-shi, Tokyo Tokyo, Japan Inside the Toshiba Fuchu Plant (72) Inventor Osamu Takara 1 Toshiba-cho, Fuchu-shi, Tokyo Inside the Fuchu Plant, Toshiba (72 ) Inventor Takuya Arakawa 1 Toshiba-cho, Fuchu-shi, Tokyo Inside the Toshiba Fuchu factory (56) References JP-A-2-309140 (JP, A) JP-A-3-45 847 (JP, A) JP-A-62-134439 (JP, A) (58) Fields investigated (Int. Cl. ⁶ , DB name) G05B 17/02 F24F 5/00 F24F 11/02 G05B 15/02 G05B 23/02

Claims (2)

(57) [Claims] 1. A control system of a heat storage plant for cooling and heating having a heat supply system for producing cold water and hot water by a heat source device and storing the same in a heat storage tank, and supplying this to a heat load device such as a cooling and heating device as needed. Temperature distribution of the heat storage tank, measured value input means for inputting measured values of the inlet and outlet temperature of the heat source equipment and the flow rate of the heat supply system and the return water temperature, respectively.
Information input means capable of inputting weather information such as temperature, statistical processing calculating means for classifying data input from the measured value input means for each day of the week and executing an average value calculation or filter calculation; and statistical processing calculating means Information storage means for storing the actual value of the temperature and flow rate processed by the above and the weather data inputted from the information input means, and the actual value of the temperature, flow rate, weather information and day of the week stored in this information storage means Load calculation means for predicting the heat load during the night time and the next day based on the load prediction value obtained from the load prediction calculation means, to improve the nighttime utilization rate, the operation during the peak cut time period, and the efficiency by the heat recovery operation Storage tank operation plan calculation means for determining a heat storage tank operation plan for performing efficient operation, and start and stop with the operation plan value obtained from this heat storage tank operation plan calculation means as the target A heat source equipment operation plan calculating means for making an operation plan of the heat source equipment capable of stably changing the heat storage in the heat storage tank; and a heat source equipment control schedule obtained by the heat source equipment operation plan calculation means, Output means for outputting to a heat source device control means for controlling start and stop of the heat source. 2. A control system of a heat storage plant for cooling and heating having a heat supply system for producing cold water and hot water by a heat source device and storing the same in a heat storage tank, and supplying the heat supply device to a heat load device such as a cooling and heating device as needed. Temperature distribution of the heat storage tank, measured value input means for inputting measured values of the inlet and outlet temperature of the heat source equipment and the flow rate of the heat supply system and the return water temperature, respectively.
Information input means capable of inputting weather information such as temperature, temperature input from the measured value input means and information input means,
Information storage means for storing flow rate and weather data; statistical processing operation means for classifying data stored in the information storage means for each day of the week and executing average value calculation and filter operation; and statistical processing by the statistical processing operation means Load prediction calculating means for predicting a heat load during the night and the next day based on the obtained actual value and the weather information and the information on the day of the week stored in the information storage means, and a load prediction value obtained from the load prediction calculating means From the thermal storage tank operation plan calculating means for determining the thermal storage tank operation plan for improving the nighttime utilization rate, operating during peak cut time periods, and performing efficient operation by heat recovery operation. Heat source device operation plan calculation means for making an operation plan of a heat source device in which the number of start and stop times is small with the target of an operation plan value to be set, and the heat storage of the heat storage tank can be stably changed, The process measurement value input from the measurement value input means is monitored, and there is a request for a plan correction to determine the degree of efficient operation and stable supply of the process by comparing with the operation plan value obtained by the heat source equipment operation plan calculation means. Modification of the plan by means of possible monitoring means and, if there is a request for correction of the plan, either correcting the required operation plan of the heat source equipment or restarting and restarting the heat source equipment. Heat source equipment operation plan correction calculating means, and output means for outputting the heat source equipment control schedule obtained by these arithmetic means to the heat source equipment control means for controlling the start and stop of the heat source equipment. Heat source prediction control device.