JP6737041B2 - Charge calculation rule setting support device, charge calculation rule setting support method, and charge calculation rule setting support program - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a charge calculation rule setting support device, a charge calculation rule setting support method, and a charge calculation rule setting support program.

Conventionally, in Japan, electric power is supplied from 10 general electric utilities nationwide in each region to low-voltage customers, mainly 77 million households, which account for 90% or more of electric power consumers. It was

However, with the full deregulation of the electricity retail market from April 2016, there are now multiple operators within one area, and customers can switch to cheaper electricity operators. It was On the other hand, the electric power company needs to study the service content (especially the charge calculation rule) in order to prevent the customer from changing trains or to acquire a new customer.

Note that technology is known that helps businesses that provide products and services to analyze the psychological conditions of customers from the perspective of responding to and interacting with customers, and to appropriately approach them before they leave the customer. (For example, see Patent Document 1). Further, as a technique for trial calculation/recommendation of an appropriate bill menu from various bill menus, a technique relating to trial calculations for customers (consumers) is known (for example, see Patent Document 2).

Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2014-191537 Japanese Patent No. 5717113

However, the above-mentioned Patent Document 1 cannot be used for examining the charge calculation rule. Moreover, although the said patent document 2 can specify an appropriate charge menu for a customer, it cannot specify an appropriate charge menu for an electric power company.

In one aspect, the present invention aims to provide a charge calculation rule setting support device, a charge calculation rule setting support method, and a charge calculation rule setting support program capable of supporting the setting of an appropriate charge calculation rule. To do.

In one embodiment, the charge calculation rule setting support device, variation information and, for each amount of change of rates or rates for illustrating a reception unit that receives an input of a new charge calculation rule, the transition of the power usage amount of each User chromatography THE The input new charge calculation rule is applied based on a storage unit that stores correspondence information in which the change prediction rate of the charge calculation rule is associated for each rate, and information indicating the transition of the power usage amount for each user. a first calculator for calculating the estimated price for each user in the case of, based on the estimated price for each of the users, fee per amount of variation or user fee for each user before and after the application of the new fee calculation rules A second calculation unit for calculating the fluctuation rate of each of the users, and a charge calculation rule for each user corresponding to the fluctuation amount of the charge for each user or the fluctuation rate of the charge for each user specified by referring to the correspondence information. And a third calculation unit that calculates an estimated value of the number of users predicted to be changed to the new charge calculation rule based on the change prediction rate.

It is possible to support the setting of an appropriate charge calculation rule.

It is a figure which shows roughly the structure of the management server which concerns on one Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the hardware constitutions of a management server. FIG. 3A is a diagram showing electricity consumption data, and FIG. 3B is a diagram showing monthly electricity consumption data. It is a figure which shows the data structure of a customer type master. FIG. 5A to FIG. 5C are diagrams showing the electricity charge calculation rule master. It is a figure which shows the data structure of a contract change prediction master. It is a flow chart which shows processing of a treating part. FIG. 8A to FIG. 8C are diagrams showing the calculation results of the trial calculation amount, the electricity charge increase/decrease rate, and the electricity charge calculation rule change rate of the customers A to C. It is a figure which shows the number of customers for every electricity rate calculation rule change rate. FIG. 10A is a diagram showing monthly electricity usage data (by customer type) according to the modified example, and FIGS. 10B to 10D show customer types (1) to (3). It is a figure which shows the calculation result of a trial calculation amount, an electricity charge increase/decrease rate, and an electricity charge calculation rule change rate. FIG. 11A is a diagram showing the number of customers for each customer type according to the modification, and FIG. 11B is a diagram showing the number of customers for each electricity rate calculation rule change rate according to the modification. It is a flow chart which shows creation processing of a contract change prediction master. 13 is a table for explaining the process of FIG. 12. It is a flowchart which shows the modification of the creation process of a contract change prediction master. 15 is a table for explaining the process of FIG. 14. It is a figure which shows a contract change prediction master in the case of considering outflow to another company and a new subscription from another company.

Hereinafter, one embodiment will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. 1 to 15.

FIG. 1 schematically shows the configuration of a management server 10 as a charge calculation rule setting support device according to an embodiment.

The management server 10 is connected to a network 70 such as the Internet. The network 70 is connected to a transmission unit 30 installed in a house or the like for each customer (also called a consumer or user) of an electric utility, and each transmission unit 30 has a power meter (smart meter) 20. Are connected.

The watt-hour meter 20 is supplied to each customer from a distribution line, measures the amount of power used by each customer, and transmits the measurement result from the transmission unit 30 to the management server 10 via the network 70.

The management server 10 calculates the number of existing customers who change from the current electricity bill calculation rule to the new electricity bill calculation rule when the electric power company is introducing a new electricity bill calculation rule. Then, the calculation result is provided to the electric power company. As illustrated in FIG. 1, the management server 10 includes a processing unit 11, a storage unit 12, an input unit 13, an output unit 14, a receiving unit 15, and the like.

As shown in FIG. 2, the processing unit 11 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 90, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 92, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 94, a portable storage medium drive 99, and the like. Each component of the processing unit 11 is connected to the bus 98. In the processing unit 11, the programs (including the charge calculation rule setting support program) stored in the ROM 92 or the programs (including the charge calculation rule setting support program read from the portable storage medium 91 by the portable storage medium drive 99) are included. ) Is executed by the CPU 90, the functions of each unit shown in FIG. 1 are realized.

Specifically, the CPU 90 in the processing unit 11 executes the program, so that the electricity usage amount calculation unit 50, the electricity charge trial calculation unit 52 as the reception unit and the first calculation unit, and the electricity charge increase/decrease rate as the second calculation unit. The functions of the calculation unit 54, the change rate calculation unit 56 as the third calculation unit, and the master creation unit 58 as the change prediction rate calculation unit are realized. It should be noted that each means of the processing unit 11 includes electricity usage record data 60, an electricity charge calculation rule master 62, a customer type master 64, a contract change prediction master 66 stored in the storage unit 12 including an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) and the like. To use.

The electricity usage amount calculation means 50 aggregates the electricity usage amount data (measurement result of the watt hour meter 20) for each time zone of the customer, and calculates monthly electricity usage amount data. Here, the electricity usage amount data is information indicating the transition of the electricity usage amount for each customer, and as shown in FIG. 3A, “customer name”, “customer type”, “electricity charge calculation rule”, It has fields of "date" and "data of electricity usage amount every 30 minutes".

The customer name and the like are stored in the “customer name” field, and the customer type (also referred to as attribute and group) is stored in the “customer type” field. Here, it is assumed that the customer type is defined in the customer type master 64 shown in FIG. For example, in the case of “type (1)”, it means that the customer is a person living alone (student), a person in his or her teens, a male in gender, and an apartment in apartment type. Further, in the case of “type (2)”, it means that the customer is living alone (company employee), is in the age of 20s to 30s, is male in gender, and is a person in which the residence type is apartment. Note that "family life" in FIG. 4 may store "two people living (couple)", "two people living (parent and child)", etc., and "age" is "30s to 40s". , "40-50 generations", etc. may be stored. In addition, "house type" may include "condominium", "detached house", "two-family house", and the like.

The field of the "electricity charge calculation rule" of FIG. 3A stores the identification information of the electric charge calculation rule currently applied to the customer (contracted by the customer). The date when the data of the amount of electricity used is acquired is stored in the field of "year month date". In the field of "data of electricity usage every 30 minutes", data (kWh) of electricity usage every 30 minutes on the date stored in the field of "date" is stored.

The electricity usage calculation means 50 totals the electricity usage data for each day as shown in FIG. 3A to calculate monthly electricity usage data. FIG. 3B shows an example of monthly electricity usage amount data. As shown in FIG. 3B, the monthly electricity usage amount data stores the result of totaling the electricity usage amount every 6 hours in one month.

Note that the electricity usage data in FIG. 3A and the monthly electricity usage data in FIG. 3B are included in the electricity usage record data 60 in FIG. 1.

The electricity charge trial calculation means 52 calculates the electricity charge using the charge calculation rule currently applied to the customer based on the monthly electricity usage data of the customer (FIG. 3B) calculated by the electricity usage calculation means 50. Estimate. Further, the electricity charge trial calculation means 52 makes an trial calculation of the electricity charge based on the monthly electricity usage data of the customer (FIG. 3(b)), using the charge calculation rule which the electric utility company is about to introduce. In this case, the electricity bill trial calculation means 52 refers to the electricity bill calculation rule master 62 that defines the electricity bill calculation rule to perform trial calculation. FIG. 5A to FIG. 5C show examples of the electricity charge calculation rule master 62. As shown in FIG. 5A to FIG. 5C, in the electricity charge calculation rule master 62, the unit price (unit price per 1 kWh) of the electricity charge for each of the rules α, β, and γ is 6 hours. It is defined.

Returning to FIG. 1, the electricity charge increase/decrease rate calculation means 54 applies the electricity charge calculation rule that is newly introduced, based on the electricity charge when the electricity charge calculation rule currently applied to the customer is applied. In this case, calculate the rate of increase or decrease (rate of increase or rate of decrease) of electricity charges.

The change rate calculation unit 56 calculates the ratio (change rate) of people who change to the charge calculation rule to be newly introduced, based on the calculation result by the electricity rate increase/decrease rate calculation unit 54. The change rate calculation means 56 calculates the change rate with reference to the contract change prediction master 66 shown in FIG. Here, the contract change prediction master 66 is a master that stores the change prediction rate of the electricity rate calculation rule according to the rate of change in electricity rate, and has a data structure as shown in FIG. Specifically, in the contract change prediction master 66, the rate of change in charges and the rate of change in electricity charge calculation rules are associated with each other. The contract change prediction master 66 is created based on the customer's change record when the electricity charge calculation rule is changed in the past. By using the contract change prediction master 66 of FIG. 6, for example, for a customer who is calculated to have a charge increase of 10% or more when a new charge calculation rule is applied, there is a 0.1% probability of calculating a new charge. It can be predicted by changing the rules.

The master creating means 58 creates a contract change prediction master 66, for example, every month. The method of creating the contract change prediction master 66 by the master creating means 58 will be described in detail later.

Returning to FIG. 1, the input unit 13 includes a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, and the like, and the output unit 14 includes a liquid crystal display and the like. The reception unit 15 receives the measurement result of the electric energy meter 20 transmitted from the transmission unit 30 and transmits the measurement result to the processing unit 11.

(About processing)
Next, the processing of the processing unit 11 will be described in detail along the flowchart of FIG. 7 and with reference to other drawings as appropriate. In addition, as a premise of the process of FIG. 7, it is assumed that an electric power company newly creates an electricity rate calculation rule to be introduced and sets it as a trial calculation destination of the electricity rate calculation rule master 62. Further, the electricity usage amount calculation means 50 acquires the electricity usage amount of each customer transmitted from the watt hour meter 20, and appropriately stores it as electricity usage amount data shown in FIG. Further, the electricity usage amount calculation means 50 creates the monthly electricity usage amount data shown in FIG. 3( b) based on the electricity usage amount data of FIG. 3( a) at a timing such as once a month.

In step S12 of FIG. 7, the electricity charge trial calculation means 52 sets the electricity bill calculation rule of the trial calculation target (trial calculation source and trial calculation destination). In this case, the administrator designates the electricity charge calculation rule master of the trial calculation source and the electricity charge calculation rule master of the trial calculation destination via the input unit 13. In the present embodiment, the electricity charge calculation rule master (rule α) of FIG. 5A is set as the trial calculation source, and the electricity charge calculation rule master (rule β) of FIG. 5B is set as the trial calculation destination. It is assumed to have been set.

Next, in step S14, the electricity price trial calculation means 52 extracts all the customers who have contracted with the electricity price calculation rule of the trial calculation source. In this case, the electricity charge trial calculation means 52 refers to the electricity usage amount data in FIG. 3A and extracts the customers who have contracted the rule α as the trial calculation source. As an example, it is assumed that 7,000 people including customers A, B, and C are extracted from FIG. 3A.

Next, in step S16, the electricity charge trial calculation means 52 trial calculates (estimates) the electricity bill from the actual monthly electricity usage amount data according to the electricity bill calculation rule of the trial calculation source and the trial calculation destination for each customer. In this case, the electricity price trial calculation means 52 acquires the customer data extracted in step S14 from the monthly electricity usage amount data of FIG. 3(b), and the electricity rates of FIG. 5(a) and FIG. 5(b) are obtained. Using the calculation rule master 62 (rules α and β), the electricity price is trial calculated.

In the case of customer A, if the rule α of the trial calculation source is applied,
100 x 16 + 40 x 19 + 30 x 36 + 180 x 19 = 6860 (yen)
When the rule β of trial calculation destination is applied,
100 x 10 + 40 x 12 + 30 x 56 + 180 x 12 = 5320 (yen)
Becomes

8(a) to 8(c) show the trial calculation amount using the trial calculation source rule α of the customers A to C and the trial calculation amount using the trial calculation destination rule β. FIG. 8A shows the trial calculation amount calculated as described above. On the other hand, FIG. 8B shows a trial calculation amount (8000 yen) when the trial calculation source rule α is applied to the customer B and a trial calculation amount (8040 yen) when the trial calculation destination rule β is applied. It is shown. Further, in FIG. 8C, a trial calculation amount when the rule α of the trial calculation source is applied to the customer C (8800 yen) and a trial calculation amount when the rule β of the trial calculation destination is applied (9880 yen) are shown. It is shown.

Next, in step S18, the electricity charge increase/decrease rate calculation unit 54 calculates the electricity charge increase/decrease rate. Specifically, the electricity price increase/decrease rate calculating unit 54 calculates the rate of increase/decrease of the charge using the following formula (1) from the trial calculation amount of the trial calculation source (rule α) and the trial calculation amount of the trial calculation destination (rule β). ..
Rate of change =
(Trial calculation amount of trial calculation-Trial calculation amount of trial calculation source) / Trial calculation amount of trial calculation source x 100 ... (1)

For example, in the case of the customer A, (5320-6860)÷6860×100=−22.4(%). For customers B and C, as shown in FIGS. 8A and 8B, the rates are +0.5% and +12.3%.

Next, in step S20, the change rate calculation means 56 calculates the change rate for each customer. Specifically, the change rate calculation unit 56 refers to the contract change prediction master 66 in FIG. 6 and identifies the electricity rate calculation rule change rate based on the rate of change in the rate calculated in step S18. For example, the rate of increase/decrease in the charge of the customer A is −22.4%, so the change rate of the electricity charge calculation rule is specified to be 30% from FIG. Further, since the rate of increase/decrease in the charge of customer B is +0.5%, the rate of change in the electricity charge calculation rule is specified to be 0.5% from FIG. Further, since the rate of increase/decrease in the charge of customer C is +12.3%, the rate of change in the electricity charge calculation rule is specified to be 0.1% from FIG.

Next, in step S22, the number of customers corresponding to each change rate is totaled. In the present embodiment, in step S14, since 7,000 people including customers A to C are extracted, which change rate (0.1%, 0.5%, 10%, 30%) is used by each 7,000 people. Check if the above applies, and total the number of customers who meet each change rate. FIG. 9 shows an example of the counting result.

Next, in step S24, the change rate calculation means 56 calculates the number of customers who change the electricity rate calculation rule by multiplying the electricity rate calculation rule change rate by each customer number. Specifically, the change rate calculation unit 56 sums up the change rate and the number of customers existing in the same line in FIG. 9 as in the following equation, calculates the sum of the summation results, and changes the electricity charge calculation rule. Find the number.
0.1(%)×1000+0.5(%)×3000+30(%)×1000
=515 (persons)

Next, in step S26, the electricity charge trial calculation means 52 determines whether or not there is an electricity charge calculation rule for which the change rate is to be calculated next. If the determination in step S26 is positive, the process returns to step S12, the next electricity charge calculation rule is set as the trial calculation destination, and the processes and determinations in steps S14 to S26 are executed. On the other hand, if the determination in step S26 is negative, all the processes in FIG. 7 are ended.

The number of customers who change the electricity rate calculation rule, which is obtained by the processing unit 11, is output (displayed) from the output unit 14. This allows the administrator to confirm how many customers will change from the trial calculation source to the trial calculation destination when the rule β or rule γ of the trial calculation destination is introduced, and appropriately evaluate the new electricity price calculation rule. It becomes possible. In this case, by changing the combination of trial calculation source and trial calculation destination and providing the calculation result for each combination to the administrator, the administrator appropriately determines which of a plurality of electricity rate calculation rules is to be newly introduced. can do.

(Modification)
In the above description, the case where the monthly electricity usage amount data is aggregated for each customer has been described, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the monthly electricity usage amount data may be aggregated for each customer type. Hereinafter, a modification will be described with reference to FIG. 7. In addition, in this modification, for simplification of description, it is assumed that the customer types are (1) to (3) only.

In the process of FIG. 7, steps S12 and S14 are performed in the same manner as described above, and the process proceeds to step S16. When the process proceeds to step S16, the electricity charge trial calculation means 52 calculates (estimates) the electricity charge by using the electricity charge calculation rules of the trial calculation source and the trial calculation destination. In this case, the electricity price trial calculation means 52 divides the customers extracted in step S14 by customer type, and averages the data of the electricity usage amount every 6 hours for each customer type (electricity usage of all customers belonging to each type). A value obtained by dividing the amount by the number of customers) is calculated, and the monthly electricity usage amount data (by customer type) in FIG. 10A is created. Then, the electricity price trial calculation means 52 uses the monthly electricity usage amount data (by customer type) of FIG. 10A, the electricity rate when the electricity rate calculation rule of the trial calculation source is applied, and the electricity rate of the trial calculation destination. Electricity charges when the calculation rule is applied and trial calculation for each customer type.

After that, steps S18 to S22 of FIG. 7 are executed in the same manner as described above, and as shown in FIGS. 10(b) to 10(d), trial calculation amounts for types (1) to (3), electricity The rate of change in rate and the rate of change in the electricity rate calculation rule are calculated.

Next, in step S24, the change rate calculation means 56 calculates the number of customers who change the electricity rate calculation rule by multiplying the electricity rate calculation rule change rate by each customer number. For example, assume that the number of customers belonging to each customer type has a value as shown in FIG. In this case, in the types (1), (2), and (3), as shown in FIGS. 10B to 10D, the electricity charge calculation rule change rates are 30%, 0.5%, 0. Since it is 1%, FIG. 11(a) can be rewritten as shown in FIG. 11(b). Therefore, the change rate calculation means 56 is highly likely to change the electricity charge calculation rule by accumulating the change rate of the electricity charge calculation rule and the corresponding number of customers, and obtaining the sum of the integration results, as in the following equation. Calculate the number of customers.
0.1 (%) x 2000 + 0.5 (%) x 3000 + 30 (%) x 1000
=317 (persons)
If the determination in step S26 is affirmative, the process returns to step S12, and if the determination is negative, all the processes in FIG. 7 are terminated.

Even in this case, as in the case of managing the electricity usage amount data for each customer, the number of customers who change the electricity rate calculation rule can be appropriately calculated.

(Process of creating contract change prediction master 66)
Next, the process of creating the contract change prediction master 66 executed by the master creating means 58 will be described in detail along with the flowchart of FIG. 12 and with reference to other drawings as appropriate. Note that the processing of FIG. 12 is assumed to be processing executed at predetermined time intervals (for example, every month).

In the process of FIG. 12, first, in step S50, the master creation means 58 identifies one electricity rate calculation rule. Next, in step S51, the master creation means 58 extracts the customer who changed to the specified electricity rate calculation rule in the previous month. Next, in step S52, the master creation unit 58 extracts the extracted electricity usage amount of the customer for the past one year from the electricity usage record data 60 (the electricity usage amount data in FIG. 3A).

Next, in step S54, the master creation unit 58 calculates the electricity charges for the past one year using the extracted electricity charge calculation rule before the customer change and the extracted electricity charge calculation rule after the change. Specifically, the master creating unit 58 creates monthly electricity usage data for the past year from the customer's electricity usage for the past year extracted in step S52, and creates the created monthly electricity usage for the past year. The average value of the electricity charges for 12 months is calculated using the electricity usage amount data and the electricity charge calculation rule before the change. In addition, the master creating unit 58 calculates the average value of the 12-month electricity charges by using the monthly electricity usage amount data for the past one year and the changed electricity charge calculation rule.

Next, in step S56, the master creation means 58 calculates the charge difference before and after the change and calculates the rate of increase or decrease in the charge. For example, if it is 6860 yen before the change and 5320 yen after the change, the increase/decrease rate is (5320-6860)÷6860×100=−22.4(%).

Next, in step S58, the master creating means 58 totals the number of customers for each rate of increase or decrease in electricity charges (for each of +10% or more, 0 to +10%, 0 to -10%, and -10% or less). The number of persons totaled in this step S58 is stored in the column of “number of persons changed” and the column of “number of persons changed+number of persons not changed” in the table of FIG.

Next, in step S60, the master creation means 58 extracts the customers who have not changed to the specified electricity rate calculation rule in the previous month. Next, in step S62, the master creation unit 58 extracts the extracted electricity usage amount of the customer for the past one year from the electricity usage record data 60 (electricity usage amount data).

Next, in step S64, the master creating means 58 calculates the past year's charge according to the extracted customer's electricity charge calculation rule, and performs the past year's charge calculation according to the specified electricity charge calculation rule. .. The process of step S64 is the same as the process of step S54 described above.

Next, in step S66, the master creating unit 58 calculates the difference between the electricity charges calculated in step S64, and calculates the charge increase/decrease rate. Next, in step S68, the master creation means 58 totals the number of customers for each rate of increase or decrease in electricity charges. The number of people totaled in this step S68 is stored in the column of “number of people changed+number of people who did not change” in the table of FIG. 13 (if numerical values are already stored, sum up).

Next, in step S69, the master creating means 58 determines whether or not all electricity rate calculation rules have been specified. If the determination in step S69 is negative, the process returns to step S50 to identify the electricity price calculation rule that has not been identified yet, and then the processes/determinations of steps S52 to S69 are executed. On the other hand, if the determination in step S69 is affirmative, the process proceeds to step S70. Note that, at the stage of shifting to step S70, it is assumed that the table as shown in FIG. 13 is completed.

When the process proceeds to step S70, the master creation unit 58 calculates the electricity charge calculation rule change rate for each charge increase/decrease rate. Specifically, the electricity charge calculation rule change rate is calculated from the table of FIG.
Electricity charge calculation rule change rate = (number of people who changed) / (number of people who changed + number of people who did not change) x 100 (2)

From the table of FIG. 13, the electricity rate calculation rule change rate as shown in FIG. 6 is obtained.

Next, in step S72, the master creation means 58 sets the contract change prediction master 66. That is, the master creating unit 58 creates the contract change prediction master 66 by associating the electricity charge calculation rule change rate calculated in step S70 with the charge increase/decrease rate (see FIG. 6).

As described above, the contract change prediction master 66 can be created by executing the processing of FIG.

(Modification of the process of creating the contract change prediction master 66)
The process of creating the contract change prediction master 66 is not limited to the process of FIG. For example, the contract change prediction master 66 may be created according to the flowchart of FIG. The process of FIG. 12 is preferably performed when the number of customers is relatively small, and the process of FIG. 14 is preferably performed when the number of customers is relatively large.

In the process of FIG. 14, first, in step S80, the master creation means 58 extracts the customer who changed the electricity bill calculation rule in the previous month. Next, in step S82, the master creation means 58 extracts the electricity usage amount of the extracted customer for the past one year.

Next, in step S84, the master creating means 58 calculates the charge for the past year by the electricity charge calculation rules before and after the change. This process is similar to the process of step S54 of FIG.

Next, in step S86, the master creating means 58 calculates the rate of change in charge before and after the change. This process is similar to step S56 in FIG.

Next, in step S88, the master creating unit 58 calculates the number of customers who have the same electricity usage amount as the customer (customer extracted in step S80) who changed the previous month charge calculation rule. In this case, the master creation means 58 calculates the number of persons by grouping customers having the same electricity usage amount for each extracted customer.

Next, in step S90, the master creating unit 58 calculates the electricity charge calculation rule change rate for each charge increase/decrease rate. In this case, the master creating means 58 identifies, for example, the customers (customers extracted in S80) having a rate of increase or decrease in charge (+10% or more), and totals the number of customers who have the same electricity usage amount as the identified customers. To do. Then, the master creating means 58 stores the specified number of customers in the “number of extracted customers” column in association with the rate of charge increase/decrease (+10% or more) in the table of FIG. Store in the “Number of customers with equivalent electricity usage” column. The same applies to the other rate changes (0 to +10%, 0 to -10%, -10% or less). Further, the master creation means 58 calculates the electricity charge calculation rule change rate for each charge increase/decrease rate based on the table of FIG. 15 in the same manner as in step S70 of FIG.

Next, in step S92, the master creating means 58 sets the contract change prediction master. That is, the master creation means 58 creates the contract change prediction master 66 by associating the electricity charge calculation rule change rate calculated in step S90 with the charge increase/decrease rate (see FIG. 6).

In this way, the contract change prediction master 66 may be created based on the rate of change in the rate of the customer who changed the electricity rate calculation rule in the previous month and the number of customers who have the same electricity usage amount as the customer. As in the case where the process of FIG. 12 is performed, the contract change prediction master 66 can be appropriately created.

As described above in detail, according to the present embodiment, the electricity charge trial calculation unit 52 receives the input of the electricity charge calculation rule which is newly introduced by the electric utility (S12), and is stored in the storage unit 12. Based on the electricity usage record data 60, the electricity price of the customer when the inputted new electricity price calculation rule is applied is calculated (S16). Further, the electricity charge increase/decrease rate calculation unit 54 calculates the increase/decrease rate of the charge for each customer before and after the application of the electricity charge calculation rule to be newly introduced based on the calculated electricity charge (S18). Then, the change rate calculation means 56 estimates the number of customers who are predicted to be changed to the electricity rate calculation rule that is newly introduced, based on the contract change prediction master 66 stored in the storage unit 12 (S20-). S24). As a result, in the present embodiment, when a new electricity rate calculation rule is introduced, the number of customers who change to the rule can be estimated (simulated), so that the administrator can make a new calculation based on the estimation result. It is possible to appropriately determine whether to introduce the electricity bill calculation rule. That is, according to the management server 10 of the present embodiment, it is possible to properly assist the administrator in setting the new electricity charge calculation rule. In addition, by setting an appropriate electricity rate calculation rule, the electric power company can suppress the customer separation.

Further, according to the modified example of the present embodiment, the electricity bill when the new inputted electricity bill calculation rule is applied based on the average for each customer type of the electricity usage record data 60 stored in the storage unit 12. Is calculated for each customer type (S16). Further, the electricity charge increase/decrease rate calculation unit 54 calculates the charge increase/decrease rate for each customer type before and after applying the electricity charge calculation rule to be newly introduced based on the calculated electricity charge for each customer type (S18). ). Then, the change rate calculation means 56 predicts a change to the electricity charge calculation rule to be newly introduced, based on the number of customers for each customer type and the contract change prediction master 66 stored in the storage unit 12. The number of customers to be estimated is estimated (S20 to S24). As described above, also in the modified example of the present embodiment, when a new electricity charge calculation rule is introduced, the number of customers who change to the rule can be estimated (simulated), so that the administrator can calculate the estimated result. Based on this, it is possible to appropriately determine whether or not to introduce a new electricity rate calculation rule. That is, also in the modified example of the present embodiment, the management server 10 can appropriately assist the administrator in setting a new electricity charge calculation rule. Further, as in the modified example of the present embodiment, the calculation is collectively performed for each customer type, so that the calculation amount can be reduced and the processing can be simplified.

In addition, in the present embodiment, the master creating unit 58 has information as to whether or not the customer has actually changed the electricity charge calculation rule, and the rate of increase or decrease of the charge when the customer changes the electricity charge calculation rule and when not. Is acquired (S50 to S68), and based on the acquisition result, the electricity charge calculation rule change rate according to the rate of increase or decrease of the charge is calculated, and the contract change prediction master 66 is created. Thereby, the master creation means 58 can create the contract change prediction master 66 based on the actual data.

Further, in the modification of the present embodiment, the customers who actually changed the electricity charge calculation rule are extracted (S80), and the number of customers similar to each extracted customer is specified based on the electricity usage record data 60 ( In step S88, the contract change prediction master 66 is created based on the specified number of people and the rate of increase/decrease of charges when the extracted customer changes the charge calculation rule and when the charge calculation rule is not changed. This makes it possible to create the contract change prediction master 66 based on the actual data.

In the above-described embodiment, a case has been described in which an existing customer of an electric utility seeks a possibility (change rate) to change to a new electricity rate calculation rule provided by the same electric utility, but the present invention is not limited to this. It is not something that can be done. For example, when a new electricity tariff calculation rule is presented to a customer who has a contract with an electric utility, the customer may change the rule (outflow rate of other companies). It may be that. In addition, when a new electricity rate calculation rule is presented to a customer who has a contract with another electricity business operator, the possibility that the customer will change the rule (new subscription rate) shall be requested. May be In this case, in the contract change prediction master 66 of FIG. 6, it is sufficient to define the outflow rate of other companies and the new subscription rate in correspondence with the rate of increase or decrease in charges. FIG. 16 shows an example of the contract change prediction master 66 in which the in-house electricity rate menu change rate, the outflow rate of other companies, and the new subscription rate are defined. Note that in FIG. 16, the outflow rate of other companies and the new subscription rate are lower than the rate of change of the in-house electricity rate calculation rule. The difference in the psychological hurdles of the customer for changing the electric utility is a numerical value. This is because it is reflected. The difference between the outflow rate of other companies and the new subscription rate is due to the difference in the tendency of inflow and outflow due to the difference in brand power between the company and other companies (if the brand power is high, the inflow rate is high, the outflow rate is low, etc.). This is because it is reflected in the numerical value. The outflow rate of other companies and the new subscription rate can be calculated by the same processing as the processing of FIGS. 12 and 14.

If there is a customer who has leaked to another company, it is unknown which electricity rate calculation rule the customer has selected at the leak destination. Therefore, in such a case, conduct a questionnaire to the leaked customer (a questionnaire such as which plan of which electric power company has been selected?) and obtain the electricity charge calculation rule selected by the customer from the result of the questionnaire. .. When creating the questionnaire, the administrator or the like may research the plans of other companies on the Internet or the like. In this way, by specifying the charge calculation rule selected by the customer at the outflow destination, it becomes possible to use the data of the customer for the processing of FIGS. 7, 12, and 14 described above.

In addition, when there is a customer who newly joined the company from another company, it is unknown which electricity rate calculation rule the customer selected in the other company. Therefore, in such a case, conduct a questionnaire (a questionnaire about which plan was selected by which electric power company, etc.) for the newly subscribed customers, and use the electricity charge calculation rule selected from the questionnaire results. get. In addition, regarding the past electricity usage of new customers, the electricity usage for the latest 13 months from the switching support system (https://www.occto.or.jp/oshirase/hoka/files/SWshiensystem_setsumeikai_20151018.pdf) The amount should be acquired. In this way, the customer's data is used for the processing of FIG. 7, FIG. 12, and FIG. 14 described above by acquiring the charge calculation rule selected by the other company and the customer's past electricity usage amount. It becomes possible to do.

In addition, although the said embodiment demonstrated the case where the electricity charge before a change was calculated based on the electricity charge calculation rule currently contracted, and the electricity usage record data 60, it is not restricted to this. For example, when the storage unit 12 has a database holding the electricity charges before the change and the data held in the database can be used, the electricity charges before the change may be acquired from the database. ..

In the above embodiment, a case has been described in which the electricity charge calculation rule change rate is calculated based on the rate of change in the electricity charge when the electricity charge calculation rules of the trial calculation source and the trial calculation destination are applied (see FIG. 6 ). However, the present invention is not limited to this, and for example, the electricity charge calculation rule change rate may be calculated based on the charge increase/decrease amount (difference) when the electricity charge calculation rules of the trial calculation source and the trial calculation destination are applied. In this case, the contract change prediction master 66 in FIG. 6 may store the amount of increase or decrease in the charge and the change rate of the electricity charge calculation rule in association with each other.

Further, in the above embodiment, the case where the contract change prediction master 66 is automatically created by the processing of FIG. 12 or 14 has been described, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the administrator may manually create it.

The above processing functions can be realized by a computer. In that case, a program describing the processing contents of the functions that the processing device should have is provided. By executing the program on a computer, the above processing functions are realized on the computer. The program describing the processing content can be recorded in a computer-readable recording medium (excluding a carrier wave).

When the program is distributed, it is sold in the form of a portable recording medium such as a DVD (Digital Versatile Disc) or a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read Only Memory) in which the program is recorded. It is also possible to store the program in the storage device of the server computer and transfer the program from the server computer to another computer via a network.

The computer that executes the program stores, for example, the program recorded in the portable recording medium or the program transferred from the server computer in its own storage device. Then, the computer reads the program from its own storage device and executes processing according to the program. The computer can also read the program directly from the portable recording medium and execute processing according to the program. In addition, the computer can also sequentially execute processing according to the received program each time the program is transferred from the server computer.

The embodiment described above is a preferred embodiment of the present invention. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and various modifications can be made without departing from the scope of the present invention.

The following supplementary notes will be disclosed with respect to the above description of the embodiment.
(Supplementary Note 1) A reception unit that receives input of a new charge calculation rule,
A first calculation unit that calculates an estimated charge for each user when applying the input new charge calculation rule, based on information indicating the transition of the power usage amount for each user stored in the storage unit;
A second calculation unit that calculates the amount of change or the rate of change of the charge for each user before and after the application of the new charge calculation rule based on the calculated estimated charge for each user;
Calculating an estimated value of the number of users predicted to be changed to the new charge calculation rule based on a change prediction rate of the charge calculation rule according to the amount of change or the change rate of the charge stored in the storage unit 3 calculation unit,
A fee calculation rule setting support device.
(Supplementary Note 2) Information on whether or not the user actually changed the charge calculation rule and the amount or rate of change in the charge when the user changed the charge calculation rule and when the user did not change the charge calculation rule are acquired, and the acquisition result is obtained. The charge calculation rule setting support according to appendix 1, further comprising: a change prediction rate calculation unit that calculates the change prediction rate of the charge calculation rule according to the amount of change or the change rate of the charge based on apparatus.
(Supplementary Note 3) The users who actually changed the charge calculation rule are extracted, the number of users similar to each of the extracted users is specified based on the information indicating the transition of the power usage amount for each user, and the specified number of users And, based on the amount of change or the rate of change in the rate when the extracted user changes the rate calculation rule and when the rate calculation rule is not changed, the rate of change in the rate calculation rule according to the amount of change or the rate of change in the rate is calculated, The charge calculation rule setting support device according to appendix 1, further comprising a change prediction rate calculation unit stored in the storage unit.
(Supplementary Note 4) A reception unit that receives input of a new charge calculation rule,
Based on the information indicating the transition of the power usage amount of the user stored in the storage unit, the information indicating the average transition of the power usage amount is calculated for each group to which the similar users belong, and the information is input based on the calculation result. And a first calculation unit that calculates an average estimated charge of users belonging to each group when applying the new charge calculation rule,
A second calculation unit that calculates the amount of change or the rate of change of the charges of the users before and after applying the new charge calculation rule based on the calculated average estimated charges of the users belonging to each group;
A user who is predicted to change to the new charge calculation rule based on the number of users belonging to each group and the change prediction rate of the charge calculation rule according to the amount of change or the change rate of the charge stored in the storage unit. A third calculator for calculating an estimated value of the number;
A fee calculation rule setting support device.
(Appendix 5) Accepting input of new charge calculation rules,
Based on the information indicating the transition of the power usage amount for each user stored in the storage unit, the estimated charge for each user when applying the input new charge calculation rule is calculated,
Based on the estimated charge calculated for each user, calculate the amount of change or the rate of change of the charge for each user before and after applying the new charge calculation rule,
An estimated value of the number of users predicted to be changed to the new charge calculation rule is calculated based on the change prediction rate of the charge calculation rule according to the amount of change or the change rate of the charge stored in the storage unit,
A fee calculation rule setting support method in which a computer executes processing.
(Appendix 6) Accepting input of new charge calculation rules,
Based on the information indicating the transition of the power usage amount of the user stored in the storage unit, the information indicating the average transition of the power usage amount is calculated for each group to which the similar users belong, and the information is input based on the calculation result. Calculate the average estimated charge of users belonging to each group when applying the new charge calculation rule
Based on the average estimated charge of the users belonging to each group calculated, calculate the amount of change or the rate of change of the charges of users belonging to each group before and after applying the new charge calculation rule,
A user who is predicted to change to the new charge calculation rule based on the number of users belonging to each group and the change prediction rate of the charge calculation rule according to the amount of change or the change rate of the charge stored in the storage unit. Calculate an estimate of the number,
A fee calculation rule setting support method in which a computer executes processing.
(Supplementary note 7) Accept input of new charge calculation rule,
Based on the information indicating the transition of the power usage amount for each user stored in the storage unit, the estimated charge for each user when applying the input new charge calculation rule is calculated,
Based on the estimated charge calculated for each user, calculate the amount of change or the rate of change of the charge for each user before and after applying the new charge calculation rule,
An estimated value of the number of users predicted to be changed to the new charge calculation rule is calculated based on the change prediction rate of the charge calculation rule according to the amount of change or the change rate of the charge stored in the storage unit,
A fee calculation rule setting support program that causes a computer to execute processing.
(Appendix 8) Accepting input of new charge calculation rule,
Based on the information indicating the transition of the power usage amount of the user stored in the storage unit, the information indicating the average transition of the power usage amount for each group to which the similar users belong is calculated, and the information is input based on the calculation result. Calculate the average estimated charge of users belonging to each group when applying the new charge calculation rule
Based on the calculated average estimated charge of users belonging to each group, calculate the amount of change or the rate of change of the charges of users belonging to each group before and after applying the new charge calculation rule,
A user who is predicted to change to the new charge calculation rule based on the number of users belonging to each group and the change prediction rate of the charge calculation rule according to the amount of change or the change rate of the charge stored in the storage unit. Calculate an estimate of the number,
A fee calculation rule setting support program that causes a computer to execute processing.

10 Management server (charge calculation rule setting support device)
12 storage unit 52 electricity price trial calculation means (reception unit, first calculation unit)
54 Electricity charge increase/decrease rate calculation means (second calculation unit)
56 Change rate calculating means (third calculating section)
58 master creation means (change prediction rate calculation unit)
60 Electricity usage record data (information showing the change in the amount of power usage for each user)

Claims (6)

A reception part that accepts input of new charge calculation rule,
Information indicating the transition of the power usage amount of each User chromatography THE, a storage unit for storing correspondence information that associates a changed prediction rate charge calculation rules for each each variation amount of the fee or fee for volatility,
A first calculation unit that calculates an estimated charge for each user when applying the input new charge calculation rule, based on information indicating the transition of the power usage amount for each user,
A second calculator that calculates the amount of change in the charge of each user or the rate of change of the charge of each user before and after applying the new charge calculation rule, based on the estimated charge of each user ;
The new fee is based on the change amount of the fee for each user or the change prediction rate of the fee calculation rule for each user corresponding to the rate of change of the fee for each user specified by referring to the correspondence information. A third calculation unit that calculates an estimated value of the number of users predicted to change to the calculation rule;
A fee calculation rule setting support device. Information on whether or not the user actually changed the charge calculation rule, and the amount of change or the rate of change of the charge when the user did or did not change the charge calculation rule, and based on the acquisition result The charge calculation according to claim 1, further comprising: a change prediction rate calculation unit that calculates a change prediction rate of a charge calculation rule associated with each change amount of the charge or a change rate of the charge and stores the change prediction rate in the storage unit. Rule setting support device. The users who actually changed the charge calculation rule were extracted, the number of users similar to each extracted user was specified based on the information indicating the transition of the power usage amount for each user, and the specified number and the extracted number were extracted. users on the basis of the variation amount of the fee or variation rate with and without changing the charge calculation rule, to calculate the change prediction rate charge calculation rules associated with each variation or for each price for volatility rates The charge calculation rule setting support device according to claim 1, further comprising: a change prediction rate calculation unit stored in the storage unit. A reception part that accepts input of new charge calculation rule,
Information indicating the transition of the power usage amount of each User chromatography THE, a storage unit for storing correspondence information that associates a changed prediction rate charge calculation rules for each each variation amount of the fee or fee for volatility,
Based on the information indicating the transition of the power usage amount for each user, the information indicating the average transition of the power usage amount for each group to which similar users belong is calculated, and based on the calculation result, the new input A first calculation unit that calculates an average estimated charge of users belonging to each group when applying the charge calculation rule;
Based on the calculated average estimated charges of users belonging to each group, the amount of change in the charges of users belonging to each group before or after the application of the new charge calculation rule or the rate of change of the charges of users belonging to each group is calculated. A second calculation unit for calculating,
Change forecast rate of the charge calculation rule according to the number of users belonging to each group and the amount of change in the charge of users belonging to each group identified by referring to the correspondence information or the rate of change of the charge of users belonging to each group A third calculation unit that calculates an estimated value of the number of users predicted to be changed to the new charge calculation rule based on
A fee calculation rule setting support device. Accept the input of new charge calculation rule,
Information indicating the transition of the power usage of each user, each of the user stored in the storage unit for storing a correspondence information correlating changes prediction rate charge calculation rules for each each variation amount of the fee or fee for volatility Based on the information indicating the transition of the amount of electric power used, the estimated charge for each user when applying the input new charge calculation rule is calculated,
Based on the estimated price for each of the users, to calculate the variation rate of the price for each variation or user fee for each user before and after the application of the new charge calculation rule,
The new fee is based on the change amount of the fee for each user or the change prediction rate of the fee calculation rule for each user corresponding to the rate of change of the fee for each user specified by referring to the correspondence information. Calculate an estimate of the number of users expected to change to the calculation rule,
A fee calculation rule setting support method in which a computer executes processing. Accept the input of new charge calculation rule,
Information indicating the transition of the power usage of each user, each of the user stored in the storage unit for storing a correspondence information correlating changes prediction rate charge calculation rules for each each variation amount of the fee or fee for volatility Based on the information indicating the transition of the amount of electric power used, the estimated charge for each user when applying the input new charge calculation rule is calculated,
Based on the estimated price for each of the users, to calculate the variation rate of the price for each variation or user fee for each user before and after the application of the new charge calculation rule,
The new fee is based on the change amount of the fee for each user or the change prediction rate of the fee calculation rule for each user corresponding to the rate of change of the fee for each user specified by referring to the correspondence information. Calculate an estimate of the number of users expected to change to the calculation rule,
A fee calculation rule setting support program that causes a computer to execute processing.

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