JP6835522B2 - Consumption predictor - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a consumption predictor.

In the event of an emergency such as a natural disaster, a plan for continuing or early recovery of business and life is made in advance. Generally, a plan in a company is called a business continuity plan (BCP), and a plan in a home is called a life continuity plan (LCP).

Conventionally, techniques related to BCP and LCP have been developed (see, for example, Patent Document 1). The technique described in Patent Document 1 is for supporting the execution of BCP or LCP.

JP-A-2015-11379

However, in the technology described in Patent Document 1, when the infrastructure is interrupted due to a natural disaster or the like, it is considered to predict the future physical quantity of the resources related to the operation of the equipment provided in the building and the stockings provided in the building. There wasn't. Therefore, there is a problem that these resources and stockpiles cannot be used systematically.

From this point of view, the present invention provides a consumption prediction device that can support the planned use of resources related to the operation of the equipment provided in the building and the stockpile provided in the building.

In order to solve the above problems, the consumption prediction device according to the present invention is a consumption prediction device that predicts the consumption of resources related to the operation of the equipment provided in the building or the stocked items stored in the building. The consumption prediction device is a physical quantity acquisition means for acquiring actual measurement data regarding the remaining amount of the resource or the stock, and a physical quantity prediction means for predicting the future remaining amount of the resource or the stock based on the actual measurement data. And a display control means for displaying information on the remaining amount on the display device .
The physical quantity predicting means further includes a first physical quantity predicting means and a second physical quantity predicting means. The first physical quantity predicting means predicts the first remaining amount based on the measured data in the first period from the occurrence of the event to the lapse of a predetermined time, for example. The second physical quantity predicting means predicts the second remaining amount based on the measured data in the second period, which is a part of the first period and is shorter than the first period, for example. The event is, for example, the disruption of infrastructure due to a disaster. In addition, after the occurrence of the event, it includes after a certain period of time has passed from the occurrence of the event.
The display control means displays the first remaining amount and the second remaining amount in a contrastable manner.

The first physical quantity predicting means predicts the first remaining amount by, for example, the least squares method, and the second physical quantity predicting means predicts the second remaining amount by, for example, a moving average method.

In the present invention, the first physical quantity predicting means makes a prediction based on the measured data obtained during the predetermined period, and the second physical quantity predicting means obtains the measured data during the shortened period shorter than the predetermined time. Make a prediction based on. Forecasts based on measured data obtained during the shortened period are more susceptible to temporary events than forecasts based on measured data obtained during a given period and tend to reflect recent changes in the environment. Become. On the other hand, forecasts based on actual measurement data obtained during a predetermined period are less susceptible to temporary events than forecasts based on actual measurement data obtained during a shortened period, and irregular changes in the environment are reflected. It tends to be difficult.
Then, by displaying these two forecasts in a contrastable manner, it is possible to present the "width of the forecast", so that the observer can be given a judgment material regarding the future use of resources and stockpiles. Therefore, the observer can adjust the consumption (future remaining amount ) of the resources related to the operation of the equipment or the stockpile stored in the building in consideration of the “width of prediction”.

Adjusting consumption in consideration of the range of forecasts by the observer includes, for example, adjusting the consumption of life-threatening equipment and stockpiles according to the strictest forecast in the range of forecasts. By doing so, it is possible to reduce the possibility that equipment and stockpiles will be exhausted earlier than expected. In addition, in the adjustment of consumption in consideration of the range of forecasts, for example, the adjustment of consumption of equipment and stockpiles that are easily affected by external factors was reflected in the range of forecasts. Including doing according to expectations. Environmental changes here include, for example, the provision of relief supplies, changes in the number of respondents, and changes in weather and temperature. By doing so, even when it is difficult to predict the consumption due to external factors, it is possible to reduce the deviation of the actual consumption from the prediction.

According to the present invention, it is possible to support the planned use of resources related to the operation of the equipment provided in the building and the stockpile provided in the building.

It is a schematic block diagram of the monitoring control system using the consumption amount prediction apparatus which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a functional block diagram of the consumption amount prediction apparatus which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure for demonstrating the means for calculating the fuel remaining amount in a fuel tank. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation method of the predicted remaining amount, (a) shows the case where the latest fuel is used less, and (b) shows the case where the most recent fuel is used a lot. This is an example of a flowchart showing processing in the normal mode. This is an example of a flowchart showing the processing of the disaster mode (correction of the fuel curve). This is an example of a flowchart showing processing in a disaster mode (prediction of remaining fuel amount). This is an example of a display screen for the estimated remaining amount.

Hereinafter, embodiments for carrying out the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings as appropriate.
Each figure is only schematically shown to the extent that the present invention can be fully understood. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the illustrated examples. In each figure, common components and similar components are designated by the same reference numerals, and duplicate description thereof will be omitted.

<< Configuration of monitoring and control system according to the embodiment >>
The configuration of the monitoring control system 1 will be described with reference to FIG. The monitoring and control system 1 is a system that monitors and controls various building equipment (for example, power generation equipment 2A, water supply equipment 2B, drainage equipment 2C, power receiving / transforming equipment 2D, lighting equipment 2E, air conditioning equipment 2F, etc.) provided in the building.
The monitoring control system 1 is composed of a central monitoring device 3, a consumption prediction device 4, an alarm device 5, and a controller 6. The configuration of the monitoring control system 1 is not limited to this, and for example, the controller 6 may be included in the consumption prediction device 4 and configured as one device.

Hereinafter, the power generation equipment 2A, the water supply equipment 2B, the drainage equipment 2C, the power receiving / transforming equipment 2D, the lighting equipment 2E, and the air conditioning equipment 2F may be referred to as “equipment 2” without distinction.
Equipment 2 is arranged in a building (not shown). The location of the central monitoring device 3, the consumption prediction device 4, the alarm device 5, and the controller 6 is not particularly limited, and may be arranged inside the building or outside the building.

The monitoring and control system 1 operates in two modes, a "normal mode" and a "disaster mode". The monitoring control system 1 in the normal mode operates the equipment 2 according to a predetermined policy (for example, energy saving). On the other hand, the monitoring control system 1 in the disaster mode operates the equipment 2 according to a predetermined BCP or LCP. In the disaster mode, for example, only the minimum necessary equipment 2 is operated during the period until the infrastructure disrupted by the disaster is restored. The operation of the monitoring control system 1 in the normal mode may be the same as the operation performed in the conventional building energy management system (BEMS). In the following, detailed description of the function in the normal mode will be omitted, and the function in the disaster mode related to the present invention will be mainly described.

(Power generation equipment)
The power generation facility 2A is an emergency power generation facility for generating electric power necessary for daily life and business when the infrastructure is disrupted. The power generation facility 2A includes, for example, a generator 21a and a fuel tank 21b. The generator 21a is a device that obtains electric energy (electric power) from mechanical energy. The fuel tank 21b is a facility for storing fuel used in the generator 21a. A level meter SA is installed in the fuel tank 21b, and the level meter SA detects the liquid level height of the fuel in the fuel tank 21b. The detected fuel level level is used to calculate the remaining fuel amount (residual fuel amount). The power generation facility 2A does not operate in the normal mode, but generates electric power to be used in the building when the disaster mode is selected.

(Water supply equipment)
The water supply facility 2B is a facility for supplying water necessary for daily life and business, and includes, for example, a water receiving tank 22a, a water supply pump 22b, and a water meter 22c. The water tank 22a is a facility for temporarily storing water (tap water) used in the building. A level meter SB is installed in the water receiving tank 22a, and the level meter SB detects the height of the water level in the water receiving tank 22a. The detected liquid level height is used to calculate the remaining water amount (residual water amount). The water supply pump 22b is for supplying the water in the water receiving tank 22a to various places in the building. The water meter 22c is for measuring the amount of water (water supply amount) supplied from the water receiving tank 22a. The water supply facility 2B receives the supply of clean water from the outside via the public water supply in the normal mode, and maintains a state in which a certain amount of water is stored in the water receiving tank 22a. Then, the water supply facility 2B supplies the water stored in the water receiving tank 22a into the building in the disaster mode.

(Drainage facility)
The drainage facility 2C is a facility for discharging the drainage generated by daily life or business to the outside, and includes, for example, a drainage tank 23a and a drainage pump 23b. The drainage tank 23a is a facility for temporarily storing water (sewage) used in the building. A level meter SC is installed in the drain tank 23a, and the level meter SC detects the height of the sewage in the drain tank 23a. The detected liquid level height is used to calculate the remaining storable volume (residual volume). The drainage pump 23b is for draining the water in the drainage tank 23a to the outside. The drainage facility 2C discharges sewage to the public sewer in the normal mode, and maintains a state in which a certain amount of empty space exists in the drainage tank 23a. Then, in the disaster mode, the drainage facility 2C temporarily stores the sewage generated in the building in the empty space of the drainage tank 23a. The drainage facility 2C may be further provided with a water meter 23c. The water meter 23c is for measuring the amount of water (drainage amount) discharged from the drainage tank 23a, and is used, for example, for correcting the remaining capacity of drainage.

(Power receiving / transforming equipment, lighting equipment, air conditioning equipment)
The power receiving / transforming equipment 2D is equipment for converting the electric power received from the electric power company into each voltage suitable for the equipment 2. When the disaster mode is selected, the power receiving / transforming equipment 2D shuts off a specific load by a control command from the controller 6.
Lighting equipment 2E is equipment for providing the lights necessary for daily life and business. When the disaster mode is selected, the lighting equipment 2E is turned off or dimmed by a control command from the controller 6 to operate.
The air conditioning equipment 2F is equipment for adjusting the temperature, humidity, flow rate, cleanliness, etc. of the indoor air. When the disaster mode is selected, the air-conditioning equipment 2F operates by narrowing the area or limiting the capacity by a control command from the controller 6.
The equipment 2 here is an example, and the building may be equipped with equipment such as heat source equipment, ventilation equipment, elevator equipment, and sanitary equipment.

(Central monitoring system)
The central monitoring device 3 is a device that monitors and controls the equipment 2. The central monitoring device 3 here will be described on the assumption that the power generation facility 2A, the water supply facility 2B, and the drainage facility 2C are monitored. The central monitoring device 3 collects the state of the equipment 2 (for example, the measured values of the level meters SA, SB, SC) and the alarm from the equipment 2 and detects the abnormality of the equipment 2. In the following, the information collected from the equipment 2 will be referred to as "equipment information". Then, the central monitoring device 3 transmits the collected equipment information to the consumption prediction device 4.
The central monitoring device 3 receives, for example, a measured value of the current generated from the power generation facility 2A, a residual oil amount, a residual oil alarm, and the like. Further, the central monitoring device 3 receives, for example, a water supply amount, a residual water amount, emergency shutoff valve information, a water reduction warning, and the like from the water supply facility 2B. Further, the central monitoring device 3 receives, for example, a drainage amount, a remaining capacity, a full water alarm, and the like from the drainage facility 2C. In addition, the central monitoring device 3 monitors the supply status and operating status of the power receiving / transforming equipment 2D, the lighting equipment 2E, the air conditioning equipment 2F, and the like.

Further, the central monitoring device 3 determines the disruption of the infrastructure (for example, the occurrence of a power failure, the suspension of the supply of clean water, the suspension of the discharge of sewage, etc.) from the equipment information collected from the equipment 2, and changes from the normal mode to the disaster mode. Is switched. The method for determining the disruption of the infrastructure by the central monitoring device 3 is not particularly limited, and various methods can be used. For example, the central monitoring device 3 determines the occurrence of a power failure from the voltage of system power (commercial power) or the like. Further, the central monitoring device 3 stops the supply of clean water and discharges sewage due to the relationship between the electric valve and the flow meter (for example, water is not supplied even though the electric water supply valve is open). Judge the stop. It should be noted that the observer may input the disruption of the infrastructure or switch from the normal mode to the disaster mode.

(Consumption forecaster)
The consumption amount prediction device 4 is a device that supports the control of the equipment 2 by predicting the consumption of resources related to the operation of the equipment 2. The support here also includes support related to the control of the equipment 2. The support related to the control of the equipment 2 is intended to support the manual operation of the equipment 2, for example. The consumption prediction device 4 is an application server, and is communicably connected to the central monitoring device 3, the alarm device 5, and the controller 6.

The configuration of the consumption amount prediction device 4 is shown in FIG. FIG. 2 is a functional configuration diagram of the consumption amount prediction device 4. The consumption amount prediction device 4 includes equipment information acquisition means 41, equipment state prediction means 42, display control means 43, and alarm control means 44. The equipment information acquisition means 41 is an example of "physical quantity acquisition means" in the claims, and the equipment state prediction means 42 is an example of "physical quantity prediction means" in the claims.
The equipment information acquisition means 41, the equipment state prediction means 42, the display control means 43, and the alarm control means 44 are realized by program execution processing by a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a dedicated circuit, or the like. When these functions are realized by program execution processing, a program for realizing these functions is stored in a storage unit (not shown).

The equipment information acquisition means 41 receives equipment information from the central monitoring device 3. The equipment information acquisition means 41 may directly receive the equipment information from the equipment 2. This equipment information includes measured values (actual measurement data) of the level meters SA, SB, and SC. Further, the equipment information acquisition means 41 calculates the remaining amount of fuel in the fuel tank 21b from the measured value (actual measurement data of the liquid level height) measured by the level meter SA. As shown in FIG. 3, when the fuel tank 21b does not have a rectangular parallelepiped shape, the liquid level height and the remaining fuel amount do not have a linear relationship. In that case, for example, the equipment information acquisition means 41 stores the shape of the fuel tank 21b as data in advance, and calculates the remaining fuel amount by an integral calculation based on the liquid level height and the shape data of the fuel tank 21b.

Further, the equipment information acquisition means 41 calculates the amount of water stored in the water receiving tank 22a from the measured value (actual measurement data of the liquid level height) measured by the level meter SB by the same method as in the case of the fuel tank 21b. Further, the equipment information acquisition means 41 calculates the storage surplus amount of the drainage tank 23a from the measured value (actual measurement data of the liquid level height) measured by the level meter SC by the same method as in the case of the fuel tank 21b. The storage surplus can be calculated by "reservoir capacity = maximum drainage tank capacity-current storage capacity".
Then, the equipment information acquisition means 41 stores the remaining amount of fuel in the fuel tank 21b, the amount of water stored in the water receiving tank 22a, the amount of remaining storage in the drainage tank 23a, and other equipment information in a storage unit (not shown) in association with the time.

The equipment information acquisition means 41 may acquire the fuel remaining amount of the fuel tank 21b, the water storage amount of the water receiving tank 22a, and the storage surplus amount of the drainage tank 23a from the central monitoring device 3 or the equipment 2. In that case, the central monitoring device 3 and the equipment 2 are, for example, by the method described above, from the measured values of the level meters SA, SB, SC, the remaining amount of fuel in the fuel tank 21b, the amount of water stored in the water receiving tank 22a, and the drainage tank 23a. Calculate the storage capacity.

Based on the equipment information, the equipment state predicting means 42 predicts the remaining amount of resources related to the equipment 2 and the remaining operating time of each of the equipment 2 when the infrastructure interruption state continues. For example, the equipment state predicting means 42 predicts the future fuel remaining amount, the water storage amount, and the storage surplus amount from the calculated past fuel remaining amount, water storage amount, and storage surplus amount. Further, the equipment state predicting means 42 predicts the remaining operating time from these values.
The equipment state predicting means 42 includes, for example, a first physical quantity predicting means 42a and a second physical quantity predicting means 42b. Both the first physical quantity predicting means 42a and the second physical quantity predicting means 42b predict the future remaining fuel amount, water storage amount, and storage amount from the past fuel remaining amount, water storage amount, and storage amount. The method of making predictions is different. Different methods for making predictions mean, for example, different calculation formulas or different reference ranges of past actual measurement data for making predictions.

Here, the first physical quantity predicting means 42a predicts the future state of the equipment 2 (fuel remaining amount, water storage amount, and storage surplus amount) by, for example, the least squares method from the actually measured data measured from the time of infrastructure disruption to the present. To do. According to the first physical quantity predicting means 42a, it is possible to make a global prediction that is not dragged by a momentary change.
On the other hand, the second physical quantity predicting means 42b is, for example, from the actual measurement data (most recent actual measurement data) measured in the past period by a predetermined time from the present by the moving average method, and the state of the equipment 2 in the future (remaining fuel amount, water storage amount and water storage amount). Predict the storage capacity). According to the second physical quantity prediction means 42b, local prediction that incorporates instantaneous changes becomes possible.

The timing of prediction by the first physical quantity predicting means 42a and the second physical quantity predicting means 42b may be any time. In the early stage of infrastructure disruption, it is possible that actual measurement data will be insufficient, so accurate prediction may not be possible. Therefore, the forecast may be suspended for a while after the infrastructure is disrupted, and the forecast may be made after a certain period of time has elapsed (after the actual measurement data is satisfied).
Further, the first physical quantity predicting means 42a and the second physical quantity predicting means 42b connect the measured data at the first time point (time t) and the measured data at the second time point (time t + Δt) when a predetermined time has passed from the first time point. The predicted value may be an extension of a straight line (inclination of the amount of decrease). The predetermined time in this case may be set arbitrarily.

With reference to FIG. 4, the processing of the equipment state prediction means 42 will be described by taking the prediction of the remaining fuel amount of the fuel tank 21b as an example. FIG. 4A shows a case where the latest fuel is used less, and FIG. 4B shows a case where the latest fuel is used more.
The horizontal axes of FIGS. 4A and 4B show the elapsed time from the time of infrastructure disruption, and the vertical axis shows the remaining amount of fuel in the fuel tank 21b and the amount of power generated by the generator 21a.

Further, the thick solid line M in FIGS. 4 (a) and 4 (b) represents the "past remaining fuel amount (liter)", and the thin solid line N represents the "past power generation amount (kilowatt)". When the amount of power generation is large, the fuel consumption is high, and when the amount of power generation is low, the fuel consumption is low.
Further, FIG. 4 (a), the dashed line P _L in (b) the period T fuel remaining amount in the _L (i.e., decrease the amount of fuel in the period T _L) future fuel calculated from the first physical quantity predicting means 42a It represents the remaining amount. A broken line P _S is the fuel remaining amount in the period T _S (i.e., decrease the amount of fuel in the period T _S) represents the future fuel quantity calculated by the second physical quantity predicting means 42b from. Period T _L is a period of from infrastructure disruption up to now, the period T _S is a past period of time only the current 24 hours. The first physical quantity predicting means 42a and the second physical quantity predicting means 42b may predict the future remaining fuel amount in consideration of the power generation efficiency of the generator 21a.

Figure 4 (a), the compared to decline of fuel in the period T _L, decrease of the fuel in the period T _S is gradual. Therefore, the predicted depletion timing of the fuel based on the period T _L (about 3.7 days) has become faster than expected depletion timing of the fuel based on the period T _S (about 4.8 days).
On the other hand, in FIG. 4 (b), as compared to the decline of the fuel in the period T _L, decrease of the fuel in the period T _S is abruptly. Therefore, the predicted depletion timing of the fuel based on the period T _L (about 4.3 days) has become slower than the predicted exhaustion date of the fuel based on the period T _S (about 3.6 days).

The display control means 43 (see FIG. 2) displays the predicted remaining amount and the remaining operating time of the resources related to the operation of the equipment 2 on the display device (not shown) in a state that can be visually recognized by the observer. The display control means 43 displays, for example, the predicted remaining amount and the remaining operating time of the equipment 2 as a graph. The display control means 43 may display a reference (operation target) as a guideline for the use of the equipment 2 together with the predicted remaining amount of the equipment 2 and the remaining operating time. The details of the processing of the display control means 43 will be described later in the operation.

The alarm control means 44 (see FIG. 2) operates the alarm device 5 based on the predicted remaining amount of the equipment 2, the remaining operating time, or the fluctuation of the prediction. Further, the alarm control means 44 may operate the alarm device 5 when the received equipment information includes an alarm from the equipment 2.

(Alarm device)
The alarm device 5 (see FIG. 1) is a device that gives an alarm to the observer using sound or light. The alarm device 5 receives the necessity of an alarm from the consumption prediction device 4.

(controller)
The controller 6 (see FIG. 1) is a device that controls the equipment 2 based on the predicted remaining amount and the remaining operating time of the equipment 2 predicted by the consumption prediction device 4. For example, if the predicted remaining amount and the remaining operating time are less than the operation target, the observer further restricts the operation of the equipment 2. The controller 6 transmits a control signal to the equipment 2 by, for example, the operation of the observer. The controller 6 may be functionally included in the consumption prediction device 4.

<< Operation of the monitoring control system according to the embodiment >>
The operation of the monitoring control system 1 according to the embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 5 to 8 (see FIGS. 1 and 2 as appropriate). Here, the remaining amount of fuel in the fuel tank 21b in the power generation facility 2A will be described as an example. The operation of the monitoring control system 1 mainly consists of "normal mode processing" and "disaster mode processing".

<Processing in normal mode>
The processing in the normal mode will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 5 is an example of a flowchart showing processing in the normal mode.
The equipment information acquisition means 41 acquires the remaining amount of fuel in the fuel tank 21b (step S11), graphs the transition of the remaining amount, and displays it on the display device (step S12). Next, the equipment information acquisition means 41 determines whether or not a power failure state has been detected (step S13). When the power failure state is detected (“Yes” in step S13), the controller 6 executes the power failure process (step S16), and switches the mode from the normal mode to the disaster mode. In line with this, the power generation facility 2A will start operation.

When the power failure state is not detected (“No” in step S13), the equipment information acquisition means 41 determines whether or not the amount of change from the previously detected remaining fuel amount is larger than the preset value. Determine (step S14). If the amount of change in the remaining fuel amount is larger than the set value (“Yes” in step S14), there is a possibility that fuel is leaking, so that the alarm control means 44 displays or gives an alarm by the consumption amount prediction device 4. A fuel leak alarm is transmitted via the device 5. On the other hand, when the amount of change in the remaining fuel amount is smaller than the set value (“No” in step S14), the process is returned to step S11, and the remaining amount of fuel in the fuel tank 21b is again adjusted by the equipment information acquisition means 41. Acquire (step S11).

<Disaster mode processing (fuel curve correction)>
The correction of the fuel curve in the processing of the disaster mode will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 6 is an example of a flowchart showing the processing (correction of the fuel curve) in the disaster mode. The process shown in FIG. 6 is repeatedly performed, for example, at arbitrary intervals during the period during which the power generation facility 2A is in operation.

The equipment information acquisition means 41 acquires actual measurement data of fuel consumption and power generation (step S21). The equipment information acquisition means 41 calculates, for example, the fuel consumption amount from the change amount of the remaining fuel amount. Subsequently, the equipment state predicting means 42 corrects the efficiency curve of the generator 21a based on the actually measured data calculated in step S21 (step S22). The efficiency curve shows the relationship between the amount of power generation (kW) and the power generation efficiency (kW / L), and is predetermined depending on the type of the generator 21a and the like. Then, the equipment state predicting means 42 stores the corrected efficiency curve in the storage unit (step S23). The corrected efficiency curve is used to predict the remaining fuel amount. This makes it possible, for example, to make a prediction in consideration of the degree of change in efficiency of the power generation equipment 2A over time.

<Disaster mode processing (prediction of remaining fuel amount)>
With reference to FIG. 7, the prediction of the remaining fuel amount in the processing in the disaster mode will be described. FIG. 7 is an example of a flowchart showing processing (prediction of remaining fuel amount) in a disaster mode. The process shown in FIG. 7 is repeated, for example, at arbitrary intervals during the period in which the power generation facility 2A is in operation. Further, the order of processing shown in FIG. 7 is not limited to that shown in the drawing, and can be changed as appropriate.

The equipment state predicting means 42 predicts the remaining fuel amount at a specific time in the future from the fuel remaining amount change curve (step S31). The remaining amount change curve consists of a set of measured data of the remaining amount of fuel, and represents the slope of the amount of decrease in fuel in a certain period. When predicting the remaining fuel amount, the equipment state predicting means 42 may correct the prediction by referring to the efficiency curve. Then, the display control means 43 displays the fuel remaining amount prediction line and the remaining operating time (predicted time) of the power generation facility 2A on the display device (step S32).

Subsequently, the display control means 43 superimposes the operation target assumed line on the fuel remaining amount prediction line (step S33). The operation target assumption line is, for example, for making it easy to grasp what kind of result the prediction line is. The operation target assumption line may be, for example, a simulation of a case where the remaining fuel amount is exhausted on a specific date (for example, 3 days, 5 days, and 7 days after the infrastructure is disrupted).

Subsequently, the equipment state predicting means 42 additionally acquires the power generation amount and the power consumption amount (step S34), and displays the power generation amount together with the graph showing the remaining fuel amount (step S35).

Subsequently, the equipment information acquisition means 41 determines whether or not the power has been restored (step S36). When the power recovery is detected (“Yes” in step S36), the controller 6 executes the power recovery process (step S37), and switches the mode from the disaster mode to the normal mode. In line with this, the power generation facility 2A will stop operating.

When the power recovery is not detected (“No” in step S36), the equipment information acquisition means 41 determines whether or not the remaining fuel amount or the remaining operating time until the fuel is exhausted is equal to or less than the threshold value. (Step S38). When the remaining fuel amount or the remaining operating time is equal to or less than the threshold value (“Yes” in step S38), the alarm control means 44 alerts the user via the alarm device 5 that the remaining fuel amount or the remaining operating time is low (“Yes”). (Remaining alert) is transmitted (step S39). As a result, for example, the observer manually operates the controller 6 so as to limit the amount of power generated by the generator 21a (step S40). Further, for example, the controller 6 automatically controls the power generation equipment 2A so as to limit the amount of power generated by the generator 21a (step S41). On the other hand, when the remaining fuel amount or the remaining operating time is not equal to or less than the threshold value (“No” in step S38), the process is returned to step S31, and the equipment state predicting means 42 identifies the future from the fuel remaining amount change curve. Predicting the remaining fuel amount at the time is performed again (step S31).

FIG. 8 shows a display screen when the processes of steps S31 to S35 are performed. FIG. 8 is an example of a display screen of the predicted remaining amount. The display screen 80 is composed of a basic information display area 81, a graph display area 82, and a detailed information display area 83.
The basic information display area 81 mainly includes an equipment identification information display field 81a and an operable predicted time display field 81b. In the equipment identification information display column 81a, information for identifying the equipment 2 to be predicted (here, “generator”) is displayed. In the operable predicted time display column 81b, the prediction of the remaining operating time of the equipment 2 (here, "92.7 hours left") is displayed.

The horizontal axis of the graph displayed in the graph display area 82 shows the elapsed time, and the vertical axis shows the remaining amount of fuel in the fuel tank 21b and the amount of power generated by the generator 21a.
The thick solid line M in the graph represents the "past fuel remaining amount (liter)", and the thin solid line N represents the "past power generation amount (kilowatt)".
Thick broken line P of the line _L represents a prediction of future fuel quantity calculated from the past remaining fuel amount by the first physical quantity predicting means 42a. Also, thick broken P _S represents a prediction of future fuel quantity calculated from the past remaining fuel quantity by the second physical quantity predicting means 42b.
The dashed line Q _{3D in the} graph indicates the first operational target, and here it is assumed that the fuel will be depleted three days after the infrastructure disruption. The alternate long and _short dash line Q 5D indicates the second operational target, and here it is assumed that the fuel will be exhausted 5 days after the infrastructure disruption. The alternate long and _short dash line Q 7D indicates the third operational target, and here it is assumed that the fuel will be exhausted 7 days after the infrastructure disruption.

In the detailed information display area 83, detailed information about the equipment 2 and a description of the graph are displayed.
Although the power generation facility 2A has been described as an example of the facility 2 here, the display control means 43 similarly creates a display screen for other facilities such as the water supply facility 2B and the drainage facility 2C.

As described above, the consumption amount prediction device 4 according to the embodiment makes a prediction based on the actual measurement data obtained by the first physical quantity prediction means 42a during the predetermined period, and the second physical quantity prediction means 42b makes the prediction. Forecasts are made based on actual measurement data obtained during a shortened period shorter than the time. Forecasts based on measured data obtained during the shortened period are more susceptible to temporary events than forecasts based on measured data obtained during a given period and tend to reflect recent changes in the environment. Become. On the other hand, forecasts based on actual measurement data obtained during a predetermined period are less susceptible to temporary events than forecasts based on actual measurement data obtained during a shortened period, and irregular changes in the environment are reflected. It tends to be difficult.
Then, in the present embodiment, the "width of prediction" can be presented by displaying these two predictions in a contrastable manner, so that the observer can be given a judgment material regarding the future use of resources and stockpiles. Can be done. Therefore, the observer can adjust the consumption (future physical quantity) of the resources related to the operation of the equipment or the stockpile stored in the building in consideration of the “width of prediction”.

Adjusting consumption in consideration of the range of forecasts by the observer includes, for example, adjusting the consumption of life-threatening equipment and stockpiles according to the strictest forecast in the range of forecasts. By doing so, it is possible to reduce the possibility that equipment and stockpiles will be exhausted earlier than expected. In addition, in the adjustment of consumption in consideration of the range of forecasts, for example, the adjustment of consumption of equipment and stockpiles that are easily affected by external factors was reflected in the range of forecasts. Including doing according to expectations. External factors here are, for example, the provision of relief supplies, changes in the number of respondents, and changes in weather and temperature. By doing so, even when it is difficult to predict the consumption due to external factors, it is possible to reduce the deviation of the actual consumption from the prediction.

[Modification example]
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the present invention is not limited to this, and can be carried out within a range that does not change the gist of the claims. A modified example of the embodiment is shown below.

In the embodiment, the resources and remaining operating time of the equipment 2 are predicted when the infrastructure is disrupted due to the occurrence of a disaster. However, the target for making predictions is not limited to this. For example, consumption may be predicted by using medical gas and medical inventories in hospitals, and stockpiles such as food and drink and sanitary goods in disaster prevention bases.

Further, in the embodiment, two prediction lines are displayed by using two prediction methods, but three or more prediction methods may be used to display the corresponding number of prediction lines.
Further, two or more prediction lines may be calculated by using two or more prediction methods, and the median value, average value, etc. of a plurality of prediction lines may be displayed as the total value of the prediction.

1 Monitoring and control system 2 Equipment 2A Power generation equipment 2B Water supply equipment 2C Drainage equipment 3 Central monitoring device 4 Consumption prediction device 5 Alarm device 6 Controller 41 Equipment information acquisition means (physical quantity acquisition means)
42 Equipment condition prediction means (physical quantity prediction means)
42a First physical quantity prediction means 42b Second physical quantity prediction means 43 Display control means 44 Alarm control means

Claims (2)

It is a consumption prediction device that predicts the consumption of resources related to the operation of equipment provided in a building or the stockpile stored in the building.
A physical quantity acquisition means for acquiring actual measurement data regarding the remaining amount of the resource or the stockpile, and
A physical quantity predicting means for predicting the future remaining amount of the resource or the stockpile based on the measured data,
A display control means for displaying information on the remaining amount on a display device is provided.
The physical quantity predicting means is
A first physical quantity predicting means for predicting the first remaining amount based on actual measurement data in the first period from the occurrence of the event to the lapse of a predetermined time.
Have a, a second physical quantity predicting means for predicting a second remaining amount based on the measured data in a short second period than are part and the first period of the first period,
The display control means displays the first remaining amount and the second remaining amount in a contrastable manner.
A consumption forecasting device characterized by this. The first physical quantity predicting means predicts the first remaining amount by the method of least squares.
The second physical quantity predicting means predicts the second remaining amount by the moving average method.
The consumption amount prediction device according to claim 1.

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