JP7300893B2 - Solar power generation output estimation device, solar power generation output estimation method, and solar power generation output estimation program - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to estimation of power generation output of photovoltaic power generation equipment.

In recent years, the importance of expanding the use of renewable energy has increased, and distributed power sources such as solar power generation facilities have been installed to supply power to the transmission or distribution system (hereinafter referred to as the power system). demand is increasing. On the other hand, power companies that operate electric power systems have grasped the power output of some photovoltaic power generation facilities, but have not been able to grasp the power output of many photovoltaic power generation facilities. For this reason, a device for estimating the power output of a photovoltaic power generation facility installed by each consumer has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1). The photovoltaic power generation facilities for which the power output can be ascertained above are those subject to the full power purchase agreement, and the photovoltaic power generation facilities for which the power output cannot be ascertained are subject to the surplus purchase agreement. It is a photovoltaic power generation facility. For consumers who own photovoltaic power generation facilities covered by the purchase agreement, a smart meter that measures the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility and a smart meter that measures the power consumption of the load within the consumer While meters are installed individually, for consumers who own solar power generation equipment subject to surplus purchase agreements, the total amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment and the power consumption of the load is measured. This is because only smart meters that

Patent Document 1 discloses a photovoltaic power generation output estimating device for estimating a photovoltaic power output at a predetermined point in time of a photovoltaic power generation facility that supplies power to a load connected to an electric power system. Solar power generation output using the solar radiation intensity at a predetermined point and the active power of the power system in the previous period, during the period in which the sun's mid-southern altitude is within a predetermined range from the sun's mid-southern altitude at a predetermined point in time A photovoltaic output estimating device is disclosed, characterized by comprising a generated output estimating unit for estimating . This photovoltaic power generation output estimation device uses the solar radiation intensity measured by a pyranometer installed near the substation and the active power measured by a measuring instrument installed in the substation to Estimate the power output of a photovoltaic power plant.

JP 2016-139270 A

Under the circumstances where electric power companies and the like cannot grasp the power output of many photovoltaic power generation facilities, if a large number of photovoltaic power generation facilities are introduced, various problems will arise in the operation of the power system. Electric power companies, etc., use measuring instruments to measure the power consumption of the apparent power system load (hereinafter referred to as "apparent load") that takes into account the power output of the photovoltaic power generation equipment at the substations under their control. Although it can be measured, the power consumption of the actual load (hereinafter referred to as "actual load") can be accurately grasped because the total power output of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to the power system is unknown. Can not do it. For this reason, when a large number of photovoltaic power generation facilities are introduced, there is an increase in the risk of supply and demand control that the prediction error of the power consumption of the actual load, which is predicted using multiple regression analysis, will increase. There is an increased risk in terms of system control, such as hindrance to recovery operations after a system failure.

Therefore, it is necessary to accurately estimate the power output of the photovoltaic power generation equipment. However, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device of Patent Document 1, it is necessary to install many pyranometers to measure the solar radiation intensity, and to have sufficiently high time resolution, that is, to measure and record at a sufficiently high sampling period. It becomes necessary to install a measuring instrument capable of In addition, since the estimation is performed for each substation or the like, there is also the problem that the estimation accuracy decreases as the introduction amount of the photovoltaic power generation equipment connected to the target power system becomes smaller compared to the actual load. Therefore, there are technical and cost problems in estimating the power output of the photovoltaic power generation equipment connected to the power system with high accuracy.

Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of such problems, and can measure the photovoltaic power output of photovoltaic power generation equipment without newly installing many pyranometers and measuring instruments with sufficiently high time resolution. for the purpose of estimating

A photovoltaic power generation output estimating apparatus of the present invention is a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities installed in a one-to-one relationship with a first photovoltaic power generation output, which is a photovoltaic power generation output of a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities. The power consumption of the load of the consumer is the apparent power consumption of the consumer that is summed up for each of the plurality of consumers, and the power consumption of the consumer, which is predetermined from the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation equipment A storage unit that stores a second photovoltaic power generation output that is a photovoltaic power output of at least one second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a distance; a second photovoltaic power generation output ; a power generation output estimating unit for estimating a total value of the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power output at a predetermined estimation time point of each first photovoltaic power generation facility, based on the total value of the consumer power consumption; Prepare.

Since the photovoltaic power generation output estimating apparatus of the present invention estimates the first photovoltaic power output based on the second photovoltaic power output and the consumer power consumption of each consumer , many pyranometers and sufficiently high time resolution are used. It is possible to estimate the first photovoltaic power generation output without installing a new measuring instrument.

1 is a configuration diagram of a photovoltaic power generation output estimation system according to Embodiment 1. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing functions of a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to Embodiment 1. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a hardware configuration of a photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to Embodiment 1; FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of estimation processing of a first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device of Embodiment 1. FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating an example of first covariance acquisition processing by a first covariance acquisition unit; 9 is a flowchart illustrating an example of second covariance acquisition processing by a second covariance acquisition unit; 6 is a flowchart showing an example of estimation processing of a first photovoltaic power generation output by a power generation output estimating unit; It is a figure which shows the measured value of a 1st photovoltaic power generation output. 4 is a diagram showing an estimated value of a first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device of Embodiment 1. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a histogram of errors in the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic output estimating device of Embodiment 1. FIG. It is a figure which shows the measured value of a 1st photovoltaic power generation output. FIG. 10 is a diagram showing estimated values of a first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device according to Embodiment 2; FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a histogram of errors in the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device of Embodiment 2; It is a figure which shows the measured value of a 1st photovoltaic power generation output. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an estimated value of a first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device of Embodiment 3; FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a histogram of errors in estimated values of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 3; It is a figure which shows the measured value of a 1st photovoltaic power generation output. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an estimated value of a first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimation apparatus of Embodiment 4; FIG. 14 is a diagram showing how the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 105 according to Embodiment 5 sequentially estimates the photovoltaic power output of a plurality of consumers.

<A. Embodiment 1>
<A-1. Configuration>
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of a photovoltaic power generation output estimation system 11 according to Embodiment 1. As shown in FIG. The photovoltaic output estimation system 11 has a configuration in which a photovoltaic output estimation device 101 and various facilities installed under a plurality of consumers are connected via a communication network 50 . In FIG. 1, solid lines represent power flow, and dashed lines represent information flow.

In FIG. 1, a first consumer C1, a second consumer C2, a third consumer C3, a fourth consumer C4, . Loads L1 to Ln and photovoltaic power generation facilities PV1 to PVn are installed in these first consumer C1 to n-th consumer Cn, respectively. The photovoltaic power generation facilities PV2-PVn installed in the second consumer C2-n-th consumer Cn are the photovoltaic power generation facilities subject to the surplus purchase agreement, and are also referred to as the first photovoltaic power generation facilities. Also, the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 installed at the first consumer C1 is a photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a purchase contract for the total amount of power generated, and is also referred to as a second photovoltaic power generation facility. The photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 is installed within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV2-PVn. Here, the predetermined distance is not particularly limited, but is, for example, several kilometers.

The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 uses the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, to determine a predetermined point in time of the first photovoltaic power generation facility (hereinafter, “estimation time” ) is estimated as the first photovoltaic power output. The estimated time includes not only the current time but also the past or future time. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 may be implemented by a general-purpose computer system such as a personal computer executing a program, or may be implemented by a dedicated computer system. A detailed configuration of the photovoltaic output estimation device 101 will be described later.

The photovoltaic power generation facilities PV1-PVn are, for example, photovoltaic power generation facilities installed on the roofs of buildings owned by consumers. Including solar power plants. The photovoltaic power generation facilities PV1-PVn are interconnected to the power system 20 and supply the power system 20 with the generated power. In addition, loads L1 to Ln are connected to the power system 20 as shown in FIG. The loads L1-Ln are supplied with power from the power system 20 and consume power.

In this way, based on the actual power consumption of the loads L1-Ln connected to the power system 20 and the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV1-PVn interconnected to the power system 20, the power system 20 sees The apparent power consumption of the loads L1-Ln fluctuates. Hereinafter, the apparent power consumption by the loads L1-Ln of each consumer as seen from the power system 20 is referred to as consumer power consumption.

Smart meters SM _ALL2 to SM _ALLn are installed in the second to n-th consumers C2-Cn. The smart meters SM _ALL2 -SM _ALLn measure the power consumption of each consumer, which is the sum of the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV2-PVn, which are the first photovoltaic power generation facilities, and the power consumption of the loads L2-Ln. do. Here, the “total consumer power consumption” measured by the smart meters SM _ALL2 to _{SM ALLn} is the power consumption of the loads L2 to Ln, the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV2 to PVn for each consumer It is the subtracted amount. Information on consumer power consumption measured by the smart meters SM _ALL2 to SM _ALLn is sent to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50 .

For example, at the second consumer C2, the smart meter SM _ALL2 measures and records the sum of the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 and the power consumption of the load L2 as consumer power consumption. Then, the information on the consumer power consumption of the second consumer C2 is sent from the smart meter SM _ALL2 to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50 . In this way, the photovoltaic power output estimating device 101 can calculate the demand, which is the measurement value of the smart meters SM _ALL2 -SM _ALLn installed in the consumer who owns the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV2-PVn, which is the first photovoltaic power generation equipment. Get home power consumption.

A smart meter SM _PV1 and a smart meter SM _L1 are installed in the first consumer C1. The smart meter SM _PV1 measures and records the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1. Information on the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 measured by the smart meter SM _PV1 is sent to the photovoltaic power output estimation device 101 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50 . In this way, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 acquires the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1, which is the second photovoltaic power generation facility.

Next, detailed functions of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 will be described. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the functions of the photovoltaic output estimation device 101. As shown in FIG. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 is a device for estimating the first photovoltaic power output, which is the power output at the time of estimation of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV2-PVn. As shown in FIG. 2 , the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 includes a first covariance acquisition unit 110 , a second covariance acquisition unit 120 , a power generation output estimation unit 130 , and a storage unit 140 .

The storage unit 140 is a memory that stores data for estimating the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV2-PVn at the time of estimation. Specifically, the storage unit 140 stores location information data 141 , second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 , consumer power consumption data 143 , and calculation data 144 . The location information data 141 is data of location information such as the address or latitude/longitude of the customer who owns the photovoltaic power generation facility. The second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 is the measured value of the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 by the smart meter SM _PV1 . The consumer power consumption data 143 is the measured value of the consumer power consumption by the smart meters SM _ALL2 to SM _ALLn . Calculation data 144 is data calculated by first covariance acquisition section 110 , second covariance acquisition section 120 , and power generation output estimation section 130 .

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the hardware configuration of the photovoltaic output estimation device 101. As shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 3 , the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 includes a computer 1 , an external storage device 5 , an output device 7 and an input device 8 . The computer 1 comprises a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 2 , a main storage device 3 and an auxiliary storage device 4 . External storage device 5 may be connected to computer 1 via network 6 . The output device 7 displays or outputs the processing result of the computer 1 . The input device 8 can be composed of a mouse, a keyboard, and the like. Each function of the photovoltaic output estimation device 101 is executed by the CPU 2 executing the program stored in the main storage device 3 . That is, in the main storage device 3, the computer 1 is stored in advance from the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer where the first photovoltaic power generation equipment is installed, and the first photovoltaic power generation equipment Based on the storage unit 140 that stores the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within the distance, and the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption , a solar power generation output estimation program for estimating a first solar power generation output, which is a solar power generation output at a predetermined estimation time of the first solar power generation facility, and a solar power generation output estimation program for operating as is stored.

The power output estimation unit 130 estimates the first photovoltaic power output using the second photovoltaic power output and the consumer power consumption. Active power and reactive power exist in the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV1-PVn and the power consumption of the loads L1-Ln. However, since general photovoltaic power generation equipment, especially home-use photovoltaic power generation equipment, is operated with a constant power factor, it is possible to easily estimate reactive power by estimating active power. Therefore, the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV1-PVn and the power consumption of the loads L1-Ln, which will be described below, refer to active power.

In this embodiment, for simplification of explanation, the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 will be described below as a typical example of the first photovoltaic power generation facility. That is, the first photovoltaic power generation output is the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2, and the consumer power consumption is the measured value of the smart meter SM _ALL2 at the second consumer C2. However, the following description applies equally to the photovoltaic power plant PV3-Pvn.

The power output estimating unit 130 estimates the first photovoltaic power output using the second photovoltaic power output and the consumer power consumption in a predetermined period. This predetermined period is preferably a period within a predetermined range from the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 at the time of estimation. That is, the power generation output estimation unit 130 determines the second solar power generation output during a period in which the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 interconnected to the power system 20 is within a predetermined range from the installed capacity at the time of estimation. and the consumer power consumption are used to estimate the first photovoltaic power generation output. The predetermined period is a period before the estimation point of time for estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output. For example, the predetermined period is a period about one or two weeks before the estimation time of estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output, specifically the day before the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated. be.

More specifically, the power generation output estimating unit 130 uses the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time-series data of the consumer power consumption for a short period of time within a predetermined period to calculate the first Estimate solar power output. Here, the short time is, for example, a short period of about 30 minutes to 2 hours, preferably 1 hour. That is, the power output estimating unit 130 estimates the second photovoltaic power output, and The first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated using the time-series data of consumer power consumption. Note that this short period corresponds to the following first period.

The power generation output estimating unit 130 uses the first covariance and the second covariance obtained by the first covariance obtaining unit 110 and the second covariance obtaining unit 120 described below to obtain the first photovoltaic power output to estimate

The first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the first covariance, which is the covariance of the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption. Specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time-series data of the consumer power consumption in the first period, and obtains the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output. A covariance between the data and the time-series data of consumer power consumption is calculated as a first covariance.

For example, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output in the first period by referring to the second photovoltaic power output data 142 . By the way, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 uses the location information data 141 of the storage unit 140 to determine the location of the solar power generation facility PV2 that is within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 and that is the subject of the full purchase contract. A second photovoltaic power generation facility is selected from among the photovoltaic power generation facilities.

That is, the smart meter SM _PV1 of the first consumer C1 is connected to the first covariance acquisition unit 110 and the storage unit 140 . Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 stores the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 read from the smart meter SM _PV1 in the second photovoltaic power output data 142 of the storage unit 140 as needed. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period by reading it from the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 .

The time interval at which the first covariance acquisition unit 110 reads the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 and stores it in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 is, for example, 1 second, 10 seconds, 1 minute, 30 minutes, or 1 hour. etc., but is not particularly limited to these, and an appropriate numerical value is determined by the user. Also, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 may read the second photovoltaic power output at a timing arbitrarily determined by the user instead of at regular time intervals. The timing for storing the second photovoltaic power output read by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 in the second photovoltaic power output data 142 is also not particularly limited. It may be stored each time the first covariance acquisition unit 110 reads the second photovoltaic power generation output, or may be stored at a timing arbitrarily determined by the user.

Time-series data of consumer power consumption is stored in consumer power consumption data 143 of storage unit 140 . The first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires time-series data of consumer power consumption in the first period by referring to the consumer power consumption data 143 . Then, the first covariance acquiring unit 110 calculates the first covariance, which is the covariance between the time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation and the time-series data of the consumer power consumption in the first period.

Here, the first period is a period corresponding to the above-mentioned short time period. It is a period of about an hour. Moreover, it is preferable that the first period is a period in which the solar radiation intensity is high and the variation in the solar radiation intensity is large. Moreover, since the load generally tends to temporarily decrease between 12:00 and 13:00, it is more preferable that the first period is a period other than 12:00 to 13:00. In this way, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 calculates the first covariance using a period in which the intensity of solar radiation is high and the variation in the intensity of solar radiation is large as the first period. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 stores the calculated first covariance by writing it to the calculation data 144 of the storage unit 140 .

The second covariance acquisition unit 120 calculates the autocovariance between the data group of the first period and the data group of the second period shifted from the first period by the delay time, among the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output. Calculate as the second covariance.

For example, the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output in the first period and the second period are stored in the second photovoltaic power output data 142 of the storage unit 140 . The second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output in the first period and the second period by referring to the second photovoltaic power output data 142 . Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 calculates the second covariance, which is the autocovariance of the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the two acquired periods. Note that when the delay time is zero, the first period and the second period are the same period. Calculate the variance as the second covariance. By the way, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 uses the location information data 141 of the storage unit 140 to determine the location of the sun that is within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 and that is the subject of the full purchase contract. A second photovoltaic power generation facility is selected from among the photovoltaic power generation facilities.

The delay time of the second period with respect to the first period is the time during which the solar radiation variation propagates between the installation point of the solar power generation facility PV1 and the installation point of the solar power generation facility PV2, that is, the solar radiation fluctuation moves. Specifically, it is a period until a cloud existing over the installation point of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 reaches the installation point of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2. For example, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 determines that the covariance between the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the time-series data of the consumer power consumption having a time lag with respect to the time-series data is , the time lag when taking the minimum value can be obtained as the delay time. Here, the predetermined period is preferably the same period as the first period. Alternatively, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 can also acquire the delay time by referring to weather data. Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 stores the calculated second covariance by writing it to the calculation data 144 of the storage unit 140 .

The power generation output estimation unit 130 reads the first covariance acquired by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 and the second covariance acquired by the second covariance acquisition unit 120 from the calculation data 144, and calculates the first photovoltaic power generation Estimate the output. Specifically, the power generation output estimating unit 130 multiplies the first coefficient obtained using the first covariance and the second covariance by the second photovoltaic power generation output at a delay time shifted from the estimation time. , the first photovoltaic power generation output is calculated.

Here, the first coefficient is a value obtained by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying the result by -1. That is, the power output estimator 130 divides the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplies the result by -1 as the first coefficient to calculate the first photovoltaic power output. Although the first coefficient is difficult to change in a short period of time, the delay time is likely to change in a short period of time due to changes in wind direction or wind speed. Therefore, it is preferable that the delay time when estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output is changed in real time in consideration of weather data and the like. Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 stores the calculated first photovoltaic power generation output by writing it into the calculation data 144 of the storage unit 140 .

<A-2. Operation>
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing an example of estimation processing of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimation device 101 . Hereinafter, processing for estimating the first photovoltaic output by the photovoltaic output estimation device 101 will be described along the flow of FIG. 4 . First, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the first covariance, which is the covariance between the time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation and the time-series data of the consumer power consumption (step S101). Specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the first covariance by calculating it, and writes the acquired first covariance to the calculation data 144 of the storage unit 140 . A detailed description of the process of obtaining the first covariance by the first covariance obtaining unit 110 will be given later.

Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the second covariance, which is the autocovariance of the two time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output with the delay time difference (step S102). Specifically, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the second covariance by calculating the second covariance, and writes the acquired second covariance to the calculation data 144 of the storage unit 140 . A detailed description of the process of acquiring the second covariance by the second covariance acquiring unit 120 will be given later.

Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 uses the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 installed within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2, and the consumer power consumption. Then, the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated (step S103). Specifically, the power generation output estimation unit 130 reads the first covariance acquired by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 and the second covariance acquired by the second covariance acquisition unit 120 from the calculation data 144, The first photovoltaic output is estimated by calculating the first photovoltaic output using the first covariance and the second covariance. A detailed description of the process of estimating the first photovoltaic power output by the power output estimating unit 130 will be given later. As described above, the process of estimating the first photovoltaic output by the photovoltaic output estimation device 101 ends.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of first covariance acquisition processing by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 . The process of acquiring the first covariance by the first covariance acquiring unit 110 (step S101 in FIG. 4) will be described in detail below along the flow in FIG. First, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation (step S201). Specifically, time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output measured by the smart meter SM _PV1 is stored in the second photovoltaic power output data 142 of the storage unit 140 . The first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires by reading the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output from the second photovoltaic power output data 142 .

Note that the first covariance acquisition unit 110 may acquire an estimated value of the time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation in step S201 instead of the measured value. In this case, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 estimates the second photovoltaic power generation output using, for example, the method of the present embodiment or another method, and stores it in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142. , it is possible to obtain the estimated value of the time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation. Alternatively, the measured value or estimated value of the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output is stored in the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 by user input, and the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the data. may

More specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 determines that the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 is from the installed capacity at the time of estimation in a period before the estimation time of estimating the first photovoltaic power generation output. Time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation in a period within a predetermined range is acquired. For the period in which the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 is within a predetermined range from the installed capacity at the time of estimation, for example, the period in which the installed capacity is within ± about 5% from the installed capacity at the time of estimation. , is appropriately defined by the user.

Note that the period of the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output acquired by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 may be input in advance to the first covariance acquisition unit 110, or may be changed as appropriate by the user. Alternatively, it may be calculated and determined by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 . In the present embodiment, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 sets the period to, for example, the day before the day on which the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated, and acquires the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output on the previous day. .

Returning to FIG. 5, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 searches for the first period (step S202). Specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 refers to the acquired time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation, and searches for a period in which the solar radiation intensity is high and the variation in the solar radiation intensity is large. For example, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 determines that the output of the second photovoltaic power generation is large and the fluctuation of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation is large for the day before the day on which the first photovoltaic power generation output is to be estimated. explore a short period of Then, first covariance acquisition section 110 determines the searched period as the first period. Note that the first period preferably does not include 12:00 to 13:00. Note that the first covariance acquisition unit 110 does not search for the first period from the above period (for example, the day before the day on which the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated), but searches for the period itself. After that, the first period may be searched from among the periods.

Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation and the time-series data of the active power of the consumer power consumption in the first period (Step S203). Specifically, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 obtains the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period from the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142, from the consumer power consumption data 143, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 Time-series data of consumer power consumption in a period is obtained by reading out each of them.

Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 calculates the covariance between the time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation and the time-series data of the consumer power consumption as the first covariance (step S204). The first covariance acquisition unit 110 then writes the calculated first covariance to the calculation data 144 . As described above, the process of acquiring the first covariance by the first covariance acquisition unit 110 (step S101 in FIG. 4) ends.

FIG. 6 is a flow chart showing an example of a second covariance acquisition process by the second covariance acquisition unit 120 . The process of acquiring the second covariance by the second covariance acquisition unit 120 (step S102 in FIG. 4) will be described in detail below along the flow in FIG.

First, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires the delay time between the installation point of the second photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 and the installation point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 (step S301). Specifically, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 determines the time lag when the covariance function of the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption in the first period takes the minimum value as the delay time. to get as Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 writes the acquired delay time to the calculation data 144 . A specific description of the process of obtaining the delay time by the second covariance obtaining unit 120 will be given later.

Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 acquires two pieces of time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output with a delay time difference (step S302). That is, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 obtains the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output in the first period and the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output in the second period shifted by the delay time from the first period. is read from the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142 and acquired.

Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 calculates the second covariance, which is the autocovariance of the two time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output with a delay time difference (step S303). Specifically, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 calculates the autocovariance between the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the second period. Calculate as the second covariance. Then, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 writes the calculated second covariance to the calculation data 144 . As described above, the process of acquiring the second covariance by the second covariance acquisition unit 120 (step S102 in FIG. 4) ends.

FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing an example of estimation processing of the first photovoltaic power generation output by the power generation output estimation unit 130 . The process of estimating the first photovoltaic power output by the power output estimating unit 130 (step S103 in FIG. 4) will be described in detail below along the flow in FIG.

First, the power generation output estimation unit 130 acquires the first covariance, the second covariance, and the delay time from the calculation data 144 (step S401).

Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the first coefficient using the first covariance and the second covariance (step S402). Specifically, power generation output estimation section 130 calculates the first coefficient by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying the result by -1.

Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the first photovoltaic power output by multiplying the calculated first coefficient by the second photovoltaic power output at the time point shifted by the delay time from the estimation time point (step S403). In addition, as described above, it is preferable that the delay time when calculating the first photovoltaic power generation output is changed in real time. Therefore, it is preferable that the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the first photovoltaic power generation output using the delay time changed in real time in consideration of weather data and the like. Then, the power generation output estimation unit 130 writes the calculated first photovoltaic power generation output to the calculation data 144 . As described above, the process of estimating the first photovoltaic power output by the power output estimating unit 130 (step S103 in FIG. 4) ends.

Next, a method for calculating the first photovoltaic power output by the power output estimating unit 130 will be specifically described. First, the consumer power consumption of the second consumer C2 is P ₂ (t), the power consumption of the load L2 of the second consumer C2 is P _L2 (t), and the power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 is the first Let P _PV2 (t) be the output of the first photovoltaic power generation, and P _PV1 (t) be the output of the second photovoltaic power generation, which is the power output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility PV1. Then, a formula for P ₂ (t) is established as in formula (1) below, and a formula for P _PV2 (t) can be assumed as in formula (2).

Here, α is a coefficient for converting the second photovoltaic power output to the first photovoltaic power output. ε ₁₂ (t) is the temporal disturbance. τ _s is the delay time, that is, the time for the solar radiation variation to propagate between the installation point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 and the installation point of the second photovoltaic power generation facility PV1.

Then, assuming that the fluctuations of P _L2 (t) and ε ₁₂ (t) are not correlated with the fluctuations of P _PV1 (t), in the above equations (1) and (2), the temporal Assuming stationarity, the following equation (3) is derived from the above equations (1) and (2).

Here, Cov _t [ ] indicates the covariance function, and Cov _t [P _PV1 (t), P _PV1 (t + τ + τ _s )] in the above equation (3) is maximum when τ = -τ _s take a value. Therefore, the covariance function Cov _t [P _PV1 (t), P ₂ (t+τ)] of the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption is the minimum value (the sign is “-” and the absolute value is the maximum) is multiplied by -1 is the delay time _τs .

In this way, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 obtains the time lag when the covariance function of the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the consumer power consumption in the first period takes the minimum value. to get as

Also, by substituting τ=0 into the above equation (3), the following equation (4) is obtained.

By transforming the above equation (4) into the following equation (5), the estimated value of α can be obtained.

That is, Cov _t [P _PV1 (t), P ₂ (t)] is the first covariance between the second photovoltaic power output P _PV1 (t) and the consumer power consumption P ₂ (t). is. Cov _t [P _{PV1 ( t )} , P _PV1 (t+τ _{s )} ] is the self A second covariance, which is a covariance. Then α is obtained by dividing the first covariance Cov _t [P _PV1 (t), P ₂ (t)] by the second covariance Cov _t [P _PV1 (t), P _PV1 (t+τ _s )] − It is multiplied by 1 and is the first factor.

Further, assuming that ε ₁₂ (t+τ) is minute and can be ignored, the following equation (6), which is an approximation equation regarding the first photovoltaic power generation output, can be obtained from the above equation (2).

As described above, the power generation output estimating unit 130 divides the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplies the result by −1 to obtain the estimated value of the first coefficient α. The estimated value of the first photovoltaic output _PPV2 (t) can be calculated by multiplying by the second photovoltaic output _PPV1 (t+[tau] _s ) at the time point shifted by [tau] _s .

When the first period is set as one period, the power generation output estimator 130 uses the coefficient α estimated by Equation (5) as the first coefficient. However, when the first period is set as a plurality of periods, the power generation output estimator 130 estimates the coefficient α for each first period using Equation (5). That is, the first covariance obtaining unit 110 and the second covariance obtaining unit 120 respectively calculate a plurality of first covariances and a plurality of second covariances for a plurality of first periods. Then, power generation output estimation section 130 estimates a plurality of coefficients α based on a plurality of first covariances and a plurality of second covariances. In this case, the power generation output estimating unit 130 employs a representative value of the multiple estimated coefficients α as the first coefficient, and uses the first coefficient to estimate the first photovoltaic power generation output. The representative value of the plurality of coefficients α is preferably the median value of the plurality of coefficients α, but may be a statistic such as an average value or mode. By performing such processing, it is possible to reduce deterioration in the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output caused by the influence of an outlier value of the coefficient α that rarely occurs, that is, the coefficient α with a large estimation error.

<A-3. Effect>
Next, verification results of the effects of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 will be described with reference to FIGS. 8 to 10. FIG. In this verification, the photovoltaic power generation facility of the consumer who is the target of the purchase contract for the full amount of one house is the second photovoltaic power generation facility, and the photovoltaic power generation facility of the consumer who is the target of the surplus purchase contract is the first photovoltaic power generation facility. A solar power generation facility was installed. Then, by using the consumer power consumption of the consumer who owns the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, The first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output, was estimated. In this verification example, in order to verify the accuracy, the first photovoltaic power generation output is also specially measured and treated as an actual measured value, and compared with the estimation result of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 .

FIG. 8 shows measured values of the first photovoltaic power output, and FIG. 9 shows estimated values of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device 101 . In these figures, the horizontal axis indicates time. The vertical axis of FIG. 8 indicates the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power), and the vertical axis of FIG. 9 indicates the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power).

FIG. 10 shows an error histogram obtained by subtracting the actually measured value of the first photovoltaic output from the estimated value of the first photovoltaic output by the photovoltaic output estimation device 101 . The horizontal axis of FIG. 10 indicates error, and the vertical axis indicates frequency. Note that Avg. is the mean error, SD is the standard deviation of the error, and RMSE is the root mean square error. From the results of FIG. 10, it was confirmed that the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device 101 is very high.

As described above, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus 101 according to Embodiment 1 includes the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer in which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and the power consumption of the first solar power generation facility. A storage unit 140 for storing a second photovoltaic power generation output, which is a photovoltaic power output of a second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility; and a second photovoltaic power generation output. and a power generation output estimation unit 130 for estimating a first photovoltaic power generation output, which is a photovoltaic power output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility at a predetermined estimation time, based on the power consumption and the consumer power consumption. Therefore, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101, if there is at least one photovoltaic power generation facility that can acquire the photovoltaic power output, the photovoltaic power generation facility is designated as the second photovoltaic power generation facility. It is possible to separately estimate the photovoltaic power output of other desired photovoltaic installations without installing a meter and a measuring instrument with high temporal resolution.

Further, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation method of Embodiment 1, from the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer where the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and the first photovoltaic power generation facility A second photovoltaic power generation output, which is a photovoltaic power output of a second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a predetermined distance, is stored, and based on the second photovoltaic power output and the consumer power consumption , a first photovoltaic power generation output, which is a photovoltaic power output at a predetermined estimation time of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, is estimated. Therefore, if there is at least one photovoltaic power generation facility that can acquire photovoltaic power output, the photovoltaic power generation facility will be the second photovoltaic power generation facility, and a pyranometer and a measuring instrument with high time resolution will be installed. It is possible to separately estimate the photovoltaic output of other desired photovoltaic installations without having to do so.

<B. Embodiment 2>
<B-1. Configuration>
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 of Embodiment 2 has the same configuration as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of Embodiment 1, and its configuration is as shown in FIGS. 1 to 3 .

In the first embodiment, estimation of the first photovoltaic power generation output has been described with the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 installed at the second consumer C2 as an example of the first photovoltaic power generation facility. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus 101 according to Embodiment 1 estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output for each consumer when a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities exist across a plurality of consumers. . On the other hand, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 102 of Embodiment 2 adds up the photovoltaic power output of all the first photovoltaic power generation facilities existing within a predetermined distance from the second photovoltaic power generation facility. Estimate the value.

In the photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus 102 of Embodiment 2, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 utilizes the location information data 141 of the storage unit 140 to determine the distance from the second photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 within a predetermined distance. Search for the first photovoltaic power generation facility in Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 obtains the consumer power consumption of all consumers who own the searched first photovoltaic power generation equipment (hereinafter simply referred to as “all consumers”) from the consumer power consumption data 143. Get them and add them up. Then, the power generation output estimating unit 130 performs the same processing as in Embodiment 1 using the second photovoltaic power generation output and the sum of the consumer power consumption of all consumers, Estimate the total value of the photovoltaic power output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility.

<B-2. Effect>
Next, verification results of the effects of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 will be described with reference to FIGS. 11 to 13. FIG. In this verification, the photovoltaic power generation facility of the consumer who is the target of the purchase contract for the entire amount of one house is the second photovoltaic power generation facility, and the photovoltaic power generation facility of the consumer who is the target of the surplus purchase contract of about 500 houses is the second photovoltaic power generation facility. 1 photovoltaic power generation facility. Then, the new consumer power consumption, which is the sum of the consumer power consumption of all the consumers who own the first solar power generation equipment, and the second solar power generation output, which is the power generation output of the second solar power generation equipment, are calculated. By using this, a new first photovoltaic power output was estimated by summing the power output of all the first photovoltaic power generation facilities. In addition, in this verification example, in order to verify the accuracy, the total value of all the first photovoltaic power generation outputs is also specially measured and treated as an actual measurement value, and compared with the estimation result of the photovoltaic power output estimation device 102. .

FIG. 11 shows measured values of the first photovoltaic power output, and FIG. 12 shows estimated values of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device 102 . In these figures, the horizontal axis indicates time. The vertical axis of FIG. 11 indicates the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power), and the vertical axis of FIG. 12 indicates the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power).

FIG. 13 shows an error histogram obtained by subtracting the actually measured value of the first photovoltaic output from the estimated value of the first photovoltaic output by the photovoltaic output estimation device 102 . The horizontal axis of FIG. 13 indicates error, and the vertical axis indicates frequency. Note that Avg. is the mean error, SD is the standard deviation of the error, and RMSE is the root mean square error. From the results of FIG. 13, it was confirmed that the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device 102 is very high.

As described above, the photovoltaic power output estimating apparatus 102 of the second embodiment uses demand power, which is the apparent power consumption of a plurality of consumers in which a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities are installed on a one-to-one basis. Home power consumption, and a second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power output of at least one second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a predetermined distance from a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities, Based on the storage unit 140 to store, the second photovoltaic power output, and the total value of the consumer power consumption of each consumer, the photovoltaic power output at a predetermined estimated time of each first photovoltaic power generation facility and a power generation output estimating unit 130 for estimating a total value of a certain first photovoltaic power generation output. Therefore, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102, if there is at least one photovoltaic power generation facility from which photovoltaic power generation output can be obtained, the photovoltaic power generation facility is designated as the second photovoltaic power generation facility. It is possible to estimate the total value of the photovoltaic power output of a plurality of other photovoltaic power generation facilities without installing a meter and a measuring instrument with high time resolution.

As described above, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of Embodiment 1, the photovoltaic power generation output can be estimated individually for each consumer, while the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 102 of Embodiment 2 According to the method, it is possible to collectively estimate the photovoltaic power generation output for a plurality of consumers. Therefore, an administrator of an electric power company or the like can freely select the granularity of the photovoltaic power generation equipment for estimating the photovoltaic power output by selectively using the photovoltaic power generation output estimation devices 101 and 102 .

<C. Embodiment 3>
<C-1. Configuration>
The photovoltaic output estimation device 103 of Embodiment 3 has the same configuration as the photovoltaic output estimation device 101 of Embodiment 1, and its configuration is as shown in FIGS. 1 to 3 . The photovoltaic power generation output estimation apparatus 103 of Embodiment 3 estimates the first photovoltaic power output using the power output of a plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities. Unlike the device 102, it is otherwise similar to the photovoltaic output estimation device 102. FIG. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103 estimates the first photovoltaic power output using the power output of the plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities, thereby improving the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power output.

In the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 uses the location information data 141 of the storage unit 140 to determine the photovoltaic power generation existing within a predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility. A plurality of facilities are extracted and set as the second photovoltaic power generation facility. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the second photovoltaic power generation outputs of the plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities from the second photovoltaic power generation output data 142, and adds them up. Also, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 searches for a first photovoltaic power generation facility existing within a predetermined distance from the plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities. Then, the first covariance acquisition unit 110 acquires the consumer power consumption of all consumers having the searched first photovoltaic power generation equipment from the consumer power consumption data 143, and adds them up.

The power generation output estimation unit 130 of Embodiment 3 calculates the total value of the second photovoltaic power generation outputs of the plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities and the consumer consumption of the plurality of consumers where the first photovoltaic power generation facilities are installed. The same processing as in Embodiment 1 is performed using the total value of electric power, and the total value of the first photovoltaic power generation outputs of the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities is estimated.

<C-2. Effect>
Next, verification results of the effects of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103 will be described with reference to FIGS. 14 to 16. FIG. In this verification, the photovoltaic power generation facilities of the customers who are the target of the 7 total power purchase agreements are the second photovoltaic power generation facilities, and the photovoltaic power generation facilities of the customers who are the target of the surplus purchase agreement of about 500 houses are the second photovoltaic power generation facilities. 1 photovoltaic power generation facility. Then, a new consumer power consumption that is the sum of the consumer power consumption of all consumers that own the first photovoltaic power generation equipment, and a new second photovoltaic power generation equipment that is the sum of the power generation output of all the second photovoltaic power generation equipment By using the photovoltaic power output, a new first photovoltaic power output was estimated by summing the power output of all the first photovoltaic power generation facilities. In addition, in this verification example, in order to verify the accuracy, the total value of all the first photovoltaic power generation outputs is also specially measured and treated as an actual measurement value, and compared with the estimation result of the photovoltaic power output estimation device 103. .

FIG. 14 shows measured values of the first photovoltaic power output, and FIG. 15 shows estimated values of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device 103 . In these figures, the horizontal axis indicates time. The vertical axis of FIG. 14 indicates the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power), and the vertical axis of FIG. 15 indicates the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power).

FIG. 16 shows an error histogram obtained by subtracting the measured value of the first photovoltaic output from the estimated value of the first photovoltaic output by the photovoltaic output estimating device 103 as an error. The horizontal axis of FIG. 16 indicates error, and the vertical axis indicates frequency. Note that Avg. is the mean error, SD is the standard deviation of the error, and RMSE is the root mean square error. From the result of FIG. 16, it was confirmed that the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimation device 103 is very high.

In the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 103 of Embodiment 3, there are a plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities, and the power generation output estimation unit 130 calculates the total value of the second photovoltaic power generation output of each of the second photovoltaic power generation facilities and , and the total value of the consumer power consumption of each consumer, the total value of the first photovoltaic power generation output at the time of estimation of each of the first photovoltaic power generation facilities is estimated. Therefore, the estimation accuracy of the total value of the first photovoltaic power output is improved.

<D. Embodiment 4>
<D-1. Configuration>
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 104 of Embodiment 4 has the same configuration as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of Embodiment 1, and its configuration is as shown in FIGS. 1 to 3 . In Embodiment 1, the delay time τ _s is defined as the time during which solar radiation fluctuation propagates between the installation point of the first solar power generation facility and the installation point of the second solar power generation facility in Equation (2). , is estimated by the second covariance acquisition unit 120 . However, if the time resolution (sampling cycle) of either the time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation or the time-series data of the consumer power consumption is low, the estimation accuracy of the delay time _τs decreases. In addition, since the number of data samples that can be used for estimation decreases, the calculation accuracy of the first covariance or the second covariance decreases, and ultimately the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output may decrease. .

Therefore, in Embodiment 4, even if the time resolution of either the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output or the time-series data of the consumer power consumption is low, the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power generation output is reduced. For the purpose of preventing this, the first embodiment is modified as follows.

First, the equation (2) used in the first embodiment is modified to the following equation (7), and the delay time τ _s is not defined. In other words, the delay time τ _s is always zero. That is, the second covariance acquisition unit 120 does not estimate the delay time _τs .

In addition, the first period is a period of about 5 hours within a period of about one or two weeks before the estimation of the output of the first photovoltaic power generation. Specifically, it is preferable to set the five-hour period from 10:00 to 15:00 within a period one or two weeks before the estimated time of the first photovoltaic power generation output.

<D-2. Effect>
Next, verification results of the effects of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 104 will be described with reference to FIGS. 17 and 18. FIG. In this verification, the photovoltaic power generation facility of the consumer who is the target of the purchase contract for the entire amount of one house is the second photovoltaic power generation facility, and the photovoltaic power generation facility of the consumer who is the target of the surplus purchase contract of about 500 houses is the second photovoltaic power generation facility. 1 photovoltaic power generation facility. Then, by using the new consumer power consumption that is the sum of the consumer power consumption of all the consumers who own the first photovoltaic power generation equipment and the second photovoltaic power generation output, all the first photovoltaic power generation equipment A new first photovoltaic power generation output was estimated by adding the power generation output of In this verification example, in order to verify the accuracy, the total value of all the first photovoltaic power generation outputs is also specially measured and treated as an actual measured value, and compared with the estimation result of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 104. .

FIG. 17 shows measured values of the first photovoltaic power output, and FIG. 18 shows estimated values of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device 104 . In these figures, the horizontal axis indicates time. The vertical axis of FIG. 17 indicates the measured value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power), and the vertical axis of FIG. 18 indicates the estimated value of the first photovoltaic power generation output (active power). From these results, it was confirmed that the estimation accuracy of the first photovoltaic power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device 104 is very high.

<E. Embodiment 5>
<E-1. Configuration>
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 of Embodiment 5 has the same configuration as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of Embodiment 1, and its configuration is as shown in FIGS. 1 to 3 . The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 101 of Embodiment 1 fixes one photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a full purchase contract as a second photovoltaic power generation facility, and the second photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility Based on this, when there are a plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities, the first photovoltaic power generation output is estimated for each customer. On the other hand, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 of Embodiment 5 converts the first photovoltaic power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility estimated by the method of Embodiment 1 into a new second photovoltaic power generation output , to estimate the first photovoltaic power output of another first photovoltaic power generation facility.

FIG. 19 shows how the photovoltaic power generation output estimating apparatus 105 of Embodiment 5 sequentially estimates the photovoltaic power output of a plurality of consumers. In FIG. 19, numbers in parentheses within arrows between consumers indicate the estimated order of photovoltaic power output. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 uses the location information data 141 in the storage unit 140 to determine the order of the consumers whose photovoltaic power output is to be estimated. Then, according to the order, the photovoltaic power output estimation device 105 estimates the first photovoltaic power output, which is the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility owned by the customer and subject to the surplus purchase contract.

In the example of FIG. 19, first, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 sets the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 owned by the first consumer C1 as the second photovoltaic power generation facility, and the photovoltaic power generation facility PV owned by the third consumer C3. Let the facility PV3 be the first photovoltaic power generation facility. That is, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 uses the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1, and the consumer power consumption of the third consumer C3 to determine whether the third consumer C3 is A first photovoltaic power output, which is the power output of the owned photovoltaic power generation facility PV3, is estimated.

Next, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 sets the photovoltaic power generation facility PV3 owned by the third consumer C3, which is the target of the estimation above, as a new second photovoltaic power generation facility. The photovoltaic power generation facility PV4 of C4 is set as a new first photovoltaic power generation facility, and the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV4, is estimated. In other words, the power generation output estimation unit 130 of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 converts the already estimated first photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV3, which is the first photovoltaic power generation facility, to the second photovoltaic power generation facility. Using it as the photovoltaic power output, the first photovoltaic power output of the other first photovoltaic power generation facility is estimated.

That is, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 uses the second photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV3 owned by the third consumer C3 and the consumer power consumption of the fourth consumer C4 to calculate the fourth A first photovoltaic power generation output of photovoltaic power generation facility PV4 owned by customer C4 is estimated. By sequentially performing such processing, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 sequentially estimates the power output of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities subject to the surplus purchase contract.

<E-2. Effect>
As described above, in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105 of Embodiment 5, the power generation output estimation unit 130 converts the estimated first photovoltaic power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility to the second photovoltaic power generation It is used as the second photovoltaic power output of the facility to estimate the first photovoltaic power output of the other first photovoltaic power plant.

In the example of FIG. 19, only the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 of the first consumer C1 is subject to the full purchase contract, and the photovoltaic power generation facility PVn subject to the surplus purchase contract is outside a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1. shall be in In such a case, the photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PVn cannot be estimated based on the photovoltaic power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1. However, even in such a case, according to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 105, by sequentially estimating the photovoltaic power output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities of other consumers near the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1, the original photovoltaic power generation output can be estimated. It is also possible to estimate the photovoltaic power output of a photovoltaic power plant PVn located away from the photovoltaic plant PV1.

<F. Hardware configuration>
The configuration of each unit in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation devices 101 to 105 described above is realized by a processing circuit. That is, the processing circuit 81 has the configuration of each part in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation devices 101-105. Dedicated hardware may be applied to the processing circuit, or a processor that executes a program stored in a memory may be applied. The processor is, for example, a central processing unit, a processing unit, an arithmetic unit, a microprocessor, a microcomputer, a DSP (Digital Signal Processor), or the like.

When the processing circuit is dedicated hardware, the processing circuit is, for example, a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) ), or a combination thereof. Each function of each unit in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation devices 101 to 105 may be realized by a plurality of processing circuits, or the functions of each unit may be collectively realized by one processing circuit.

When the processing circuit is a processor, the function of each unit in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation devices 101-105 is realized by a combination of software or the like (software, firmware, or software and firmware). Software or the like is written as a program and stored in memory. A processor applied to a processing circuit implements the function of each part by reading and executing a program stored in a memory. Here, the memory includes, for example, non-volatile or Volatile semiconductor memory, HDD (Hard Disk Drive), magnetic disk, flexible disk, optical disk, compact disk, mini disk, DVD (Digital Versatile Disk) and its drive device, etc., or any storage medium that will be used in the future. may

The configuration in which each function of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation devices 101 to 105 is realized by either hardware or software has been described above. However, the configuration is not limited to this, and a configuration in which a part of the configuration is realized by dedicated hardware and another part of the configuration is realized by software or the like may be used. As described above, the processing circuit can implement each of the functions described above using hardware, software, etc., or a combination thereof.

The photovoltaic output estimation devices 101 to 105 and the photovoltaic output estimation system 11 have been described above. However, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. Within the scope of the invention, each embodiment can be freely combined, and each embodiment can be appropriately modified or omitted.

For example, in the above embodiment, the power generation output estimation unit 130 uses data in a period within a predetermined range from the installed capacity at the time of estimation of the installed capacity of the first solar power generation facility to estimate the first solar power generation facility. We decided to estimate the photovoltaic output. However, the power generation output estimating unit 130 may estimate the first photovoltaic power output without considering the period during which the installed capacity of the first photovoltaic power generation facility is within the predetermined range.

Further, in the above embodiment, the first photovoltaic power generation facility is the photovoltaic power generation facility subject to the surplus purchase contract. However, regardless of the purchase agreement, the first solar power generation facility cannot directly measure the solar power generation output due to the fact that the meter is not installed individually. It may be a photovoltaic facility.

In the above embodiment, the second photovoltaic power generation facility is a photovoltaic power generation facility that is subject to a purchase contract for the total amount of power generated. However, the second photovoltaic power generation facility may be a photovoltaic power generation facility whose photovoltaic power output can be directly measured regardless of the purchase agreement. In addition, a measured value or an estimated value of the solar radiation intensity may be used for the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility.

1 computer, 2 CPU, 3 main storage device, 4 auxiliary storage device, 5 external storage device, 6 network, 7 output device, 8 input device, 11 solar power generation output estimation system, 20 power system, 25 communication network, 50 communication Network 101-105 Photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 110 First covariance acquisition unit 120 Second covariance acquisition unit 130 Power generation output estimation unit 140 Storage unit 141 Location information data 142 Second photovoltaic power generation output data, 143 consumer power consumption data, 144 calculation data, PV1-PVn photovoltaic power generation equipment, L1-Ln load.

Claims (14)

The first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power output of the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities, and the power consumption of the loads of the plurality of consumers in which the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities are installed on a one-to-one basis Installed within a predetermined distance from the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer added for each of the plurality of consumers, and the plurality of the first photovoltaic power generation facilities, a storage unit that stores a second photovoltaic power output that is a photovoltaic power output of at least one second photovoltaic power generation facility;
Based on the second photovoltaic power generation output and the sum of the consumer power consumption of each consumer, the first A power generation output estimation unit that estimates the total value of the photovoltaic power generation output,
Photovoltaic output estimator. The second photovoltaic power generation facility is a plurality,
The power output estimating unit, based on the total value of the second photovoltaic power generation output of each of the second photovoltaic power generation facilities and the total value of the consumer power consumption of each of the consumers, each of the first solar power estimating the total value of the first photovoltaic power generation output at the estimated time point of the photovoltaic power generation facility;
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 1 . The storage unit stores time-series data of the output of the second photovoltaic power generation and time-series data of the total value of the consumer power consumption,
The power output estimating unit estimates the total value of the first photovoltaic power output based on the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power output and the time-series data of the total value of the consumer power consumption.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 1 or 2 . The power generation output estimating unit, based on the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time-series data of the total value of the consumer power consumption in at least one first period before the estimation time, estimating the combined value of the first photovoltaic power output;
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 3 . The first period is a period in which the difference between the total value of the installed capacity of the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the total value of the installed capacity of the first photovoltaic power generation facility at the time of estimation is within a predetermined range. is
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 4 . a first covariance acquisition unit that calculates a first covariance that is a covariance between the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the time-series data of the total value of the consumer power consumption in the first period; ,
A second covariance, which is the autocovariance between the data group in the first period and the data group in the second period shifted from the first period by the delay time, among the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output and a second covariance acquisition unit that calculates,
The power output estimating unit estimates a total value of the first photovoltaic power output using the first covariance, the second covariance, and the second photovoltaic power output.
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 4 or 5 . The power generation output estimating unit uses a coefficient obtained based on the first covariance and the second covariance as a first coefficient, and sets the second coefficient at a time point shifted from the estimation time point by the delay time to the first coefficient. Estimate the sum of the first photovoltaic output by multiplying the photovoltaic output;
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 6 . The first coefficient is a value obtained by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying by -1,
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 7 . The first period is plural,
Based on the plurality of first periods, the first covariance acquisition unit and the second covariance acquisition unit calculate the plurality of first covariances and the plurality of second covariances, respectively;
The power generation output estimating unit uses a representative value of the plurality of coefficients obtained based on the plurality of first covariances and the plurality of second covariances as the first coefficient,
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 7 or 8 . The delay time is the time for solar radiation fluctuation to propagate between the installation point of the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the installation point of the second photovoltaic power generation facility.
The photovoltaic output estimating device according to any one of claims 6 to 9 . The second covariance acquisition unit is configured to obtain the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output, and the power consumption of the consumer having a time lag with respect to the time-series data of the second photovoltaic power generation output . The time lag when the covariance with the time-series data of the summed value takes the minimum value is the delay time;
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to any one of claims 6 to 10 . The first photovoltaic power generation facility is a photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a surplus purchase contract,
The second photovoltaic power generation facility is a photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a purchase contract for the total amount of power generated,
The photovoltaic output estimating device according to any one of claims 1 to 11. The first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power output of the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities, and the power consumption of the loads of the plurality of consumers in which the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities are installed on a one-to-one basis Installed within a predetermined distance from the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer added for each of the plurality of consumers, and the plurality of the first photovoltaic power generation facilities, a second photovoltaic power output, which is the photovoltaic power output of at least one second photovoltaic power generation facility;
Based on the second photovoltaic power generation output and the sum of the consumer power consumption of each consumer , the first Estimate the total PV output,
PV output estimation method. the computer,
The first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power output of the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities, and the power consumption of the loads of the plurality of consumers in which the plurality of first photovoltaic power generation facilities are installed on a one-to-one basis Installed within a predetermined distance from the consumer power consumption, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer added for each of the plurality of consumers, and the plurality of the first photovoltaic power generation facilities, a storage unit that stores a second photovoltaic power output that is a photovoltaic power output of at least one second photovoltaic power generation facility;
Based on the second photovoltaic power generation output and the sum of the consumer power consumption of each consumer , the first a power generation output estimating unit for estimating the total value of the photovoltaic power generation output,
Solar power output estimation program.

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