JP7416667B2 - Equipment planning support device and equipment planning support method - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to an equipment planning support device and an equipment planning support method for calculating the appropriate scale and capacity of a water facility.

When updating water supply facilities such as water treatment plants and water distribution reservoirs, appropriate capacity is required to meet water demand. The following documents have been published as guidelines for determining the appropriate size of water treatment plants and distribution reservoirs. For example, Non-Patent Document 1 states that the effective capacity of a water distribution reservoir should be as large as possible in order to increase the stability of water supply, with the standard effective capacity of a water distribution reservoir being 12 hours worth of planned daily maximum water supply, and that the planned water purification capacity of a water treatment plant should be the maximum planned daily water supply. It is stipulated that the amount of water to be supplied is determined based on the amount of water supplied, taking into account water for work, etc.

Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare: Water supply facility design guidelines (2012 edition)

If the scale of the water supply facility is determined according to the contents described in the above-mentioned Non-Patent Document 1, the water demand of the water supply area can be sufficiently satisfied, and stable water supply can be achieved. However, in the conventional facility size determination method described above, due to sufficient consideration given to safety and stability, there is a possibility that the facility size is excessive. In addition, in water supply facilities, water operations such as leveling the flow rate of purified water and maintaining target water levels of distribution reservoirs are generally performed. For this reason, the peak value (maximum value) of the water purification amount and water storage volume of the distribution reservoir, which corresponds to the facility scale of the water treatment plant or distribution reservoir, tends to be reduced. Since the effect of reducing peak values is not taken into consideration, there is a possibility that the facility size is excessive from this point of view as well. Therefore, with the conventional facility size determination method, the facility size may become excessive, and as a result, more facility renewal costs may be incurred.

The present invention provides a facility planning support device and a facility planning support method that are capable of determining an appropriate facility scale of a water supply facility, taking into account not only the water demand at the time of facility renewal but also the effect of reducing the facility scale due to water operation. With the goal.

A facility planning support device that supports determining the facility size when updating a water treatment plant or water distribution reservoir to be disclosed is
Forecasting the annual water demand in the year in which the facilities of the water distribution district to which water is distributed by the water treatment plant or the water distribution reservoir is scheduled to be updated;
Water demand performance data for a predetermined time unit for a plurality of days in the water distribution district under adverse conditions in which the amount of purified water at the water treatment plant or the amount of water stored in the water distribution reservoir increases is corresponded to each of the water demand performance data. Using the actual annual demand value and the result of the water demand forecast for the year in which the facility is scheduled to be updated, each is corrected to become water demand data corresponding to the year in which the facility is scheduled to be updated. Create multiple water demand forecast data corresponding to the planned update year,
Each of the water operation plans for the water treatment plant or the water supply facility including the distribution reservoir is prepared when each of the plurality of water demand forecast data created above is given, and the amount of purified water of the water treatment plant in all the plans that are drawn up is determined. A value that satisfies a predetermined condition among the peak value or a peak value of the water storage amount of the water distribution reservoir is calculated, and the value that satisfies the predetermined condition is determined as the facility scale of the water purification plant or the water distribution reservoir, respectively.

According to the present invention, it is possible to appropriately determine the facility scale of a water facility, taking into account not only the water demand at the time of facility renewal, but also the effect of reducing the facility scale due to water operation.

Schematic diagram of the overall configuration of a water supply system including a water demand forecasting device An example of a water treatment plant information management table An example of a water reservoir information management table An example of a measurement data management table Flowchart of the process for creating water demand data corresponding to the planned year of facility renewal Scheduled update annual water demand data management table Explanatory diagram of predetermined variable names for each water facility Flowchart of the process of determining the facility scale of the facility to be updated when using water operation planning problem P1 with a changed objective function An example of a water operation plan management table (corresponds to the peak day of the water treatment plant, corresponds to changing the objective function of the water operation plan problem) An example of a water operation plan management table (corresponds to the maximum day of peak water storage amount, corresponds to objective function change of water operation plan problem) Flowchart of the process of determining the facility scale of the facility to be updated when using water operation plan problem P2 with changed constraints An example of a water operation plan management table (corresponds to the maximum peak day of the water treatment plant, corresponds to changing the constraints of water operation plan problems) An example of a water operation plan management table (corresponds to the maximum day of peak water storage volume, corresponds to changes in constraint conditions for water operation plan problems) An example of a display screen for facility scale proposal, water operation plan proposal, etc.

Embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described below. The following description and drawings are examples for explaining the present invention, and are omitted and simplified as appropriate for clarity of explanation. The present invention can also be implemented in various other forms. Unless specifically limited, each component may be singular or plural.

The position, size, shape, range, etc. of each component shown in the drawings may not represent the actual position, size, shape, range, etc. in order to facilitate understanding of the invention. Therefore, the present invention is not necessarily limited to the position, size, shape, range, etc. disclosed in the drawings.

In the following description, various information may be described using expressions such as "table" and "list," but various information may be expressed using data structures other than these. "XX table", "XX list", etc. are sometimes referred to as "XX information" to indicate that they do not depend on the data structure. When describing identification information, when expressions such as "identification information", "identifier", "name", "ID", and "number" are used, these expressions can be replaced with each other.

When there are multiple components having the same or similar functions, the same reference numerals may be given different suffixes for explanation. However, if there is no need to distinguish between these multiple components, the subscripts may be omitted in the description.

In addition, in the following explanation, processing performed by executing a program may be explained, but the program is executed by a processor (for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) or a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit)). The processor may be the main body of the processing in order to perform the processing using appropriate storage resources (for example, memory) and/or interface devices (for example, communication ports). Similarly, the subject of processing performed by executing a program may be a controller, device, system, computer, or node having a processor. The main body of the processing performed by executing the program may be an arithmetic unit, and may include a dedicated circuit (for example, FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) or ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit)) that performs specific processing. .

A program may be installed on a device, such as a computer, from a program source. The program source may be, for example, a program distribution server or a computer-readable storage medium. When the program source is a program distribution server, the program distribution server includes a processor and a storage resource for storing the program to be distributed, and the processor of the program distribution server may distribute the program to be distributed to other computers. Furthermore, in the following description, two or more programs may be realized as one program, or one program may be realized as two or more programs.

FIG. 1 shows a schematic diagram of the overall configuration of a water supply system 102 including a facility planning support device 101, a monitoring and control system, a water purification plant, a pump, a water distribution reservoir, a water distribution pipe network, a network, etc., according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Water purified at water treatment plants 103 and 104 is pumped to distribution reservoirs 105, 106, and 107 by pumps (not shown) in the water treatment plants, and once stored in each distribution reservoir, the water is pumped (not shown) in each distribution reservoir. The water is then pressure-fed to the water distribution pipe network 108 and distributed to customers 109 via the water distribution pipe network 108. The water treatment plants 103 and 104 each measure the amount of purified water sent to each distribution reservoir at a predetermined period (for example, one minute cycle), and the distribution reservoirs 105, 106, and 107 each measure the water level of the distribution reservoir and other distribution reservoirs and water pipes. The amount of water distributed to the network 108 is measured at predetermined intervals and transmitted to the supervisory control system (SCADA) 110. The monitoring and control system 110 acquires the above-mentioned measured values of the purified water amount of the water purification plants 103 and 104, the measured water levels of the water distribution reservoirs 105, 106, and 107, and the measured values of the water distribution amount from the water distribution reservoirs 105, 106, and 107. , the sum or average of the hourly portions is taken to calculate the amount of purified water, each water level, and each amount of water distributed for each hour. Furthermore, the monitoring and control system 110 calculates the hourly water demand of the target water distribution area by summing the amount of water distributed to the water distribution pipe network 108, and saves each aggregated and calculated data. The equipment planning support device 101 is connected to a monitoring control system 110 via a network 111.

The equipment planning support device 101 is a general computer system that includes a CPU, a storage device (RAM, hard disk, flash memory, etc.), an input section 121 (keyboard, mouse, etc.), and a display section 122 (display, printer, etc.). be. The storage device includes a facility information registration section 123, a measurement data acquisition section 124, a long-term demand forecasting section (water demand forecasting section) 125, a demand data creation section (water demand data creation section) 126, a water operation planning section 127, and a facility planning section. The proposal presentation unit 128 is stored as programs, and the CPU executes these programs. The storage device also stores a water purification plant information management table 131, a water distribution reservoir information management table 132, a measurement data management table 133, an updated annual water demand data management table 134, and a water operation plan management table 135 as data. , which can be used when running the above program.

The facility information registration unit 123 is a program that registers information regarding water purification plants and water distribution reservoirs input by the administrator in a predetermined table. The measurement data acquisition unit 124 is a program that acquires each measurement data of the amount of purified water, the water level of the water distribution reservoir, and the amount of water demand in a predetermined period transmitted from the monitoring and control system 110, and registers it in a predetermined table. The long-term demand prediction unit 125 is a program that predicts the water demand of the target water distribution district in the year in which the water supply facilities are scheduled to be updated. The demand data creation unit 126 uses the actual water demand data of the target water distribution district to determine the peak value of the amount of purified water or the amount of water stored in the distribution reservoir that corresponds to the facility size of the water facility (water treatment plant, distribution reservoir) with a large water demand. This is a program that creates water demand data for multiple days corresponding to the year in which the aquarium facility is scheduled to be updated under the worst environmental conditions, such as when water is likely to be high. The water operation planning unit 127 solves the water operation planning problem in the water supply system 102 using the water demand data under the worst environmental conditions created above, and solves the water operation planning problem (purified water amount, pipe flow rate, distribution reservoir water level). This is a program that determines the peak value of the water purification volume and water storage capacity of the distribution reservoir as the appropriate facility size for the facility to be updated. The facility plan presentation unit 128 combines the facility scale (peak value of water purification amount and distribution reservoir water storage amount) of the facility to be updated decided above, water demand amount data on the day of peak occurrence, water operation plan proposal, etc. This is the program presented.

The water purification plant information management table 131 is a table for managing information regarding each water purification plant. The water distribution reservoir information management table 132 is a table that manages information regarding each water distribution reservoir. The measurement data management table 133 is a table for managing performance data such as the amount of purified water, the water level of the water distribution reservoir, and the amount of water demand for a predetermined period acquired from the monitoring and control system 110. The scheduled update year water demand data management table 134 is a table for managing water demand data for the scheduled update year of the facility to be updated under the worst environmental conditions. The water operation plan management table 135 is a table for managing the water operation plan (or plans) created by solving the water operation plan problem in the water supply system 102.

In the embodiment of the present invention, the facility planning support system 101 performs operations under the worst environmental conditions, such as when the water demand is large and the peak value of the purified water amount corresponding to the facility scale of the water supply facility and the peak value of the water reservoir water storage amount are likely to be high. The scale of the facility is determined based on the peak value when the peak value is reduced as much as possible through water operation. From a safety perspective, the scale of the facility should originally be determined based on the above peak value under the worst environmental conditions, but even under the worst environmental conditions, the above peak value can be reduced by appropriate water management. This is based on the idea that, if possible, there is no practical problem in determining the scale of the facility based on the reduced peak value. Here, it is assumed that the facilities to be updated are the water purification plant 103 and the water distribution reservoir 106. At this time, the facility planning support system 101 determines the maximum value (upper limit) of water purification amount as the facility scale of the water purification plant 103, and determines the maximum value (upper limit) of water storage amount as the facility scale of the water distribution reservoir 106. Become.

In the facility planning support system 101, by executing the following processes (1) to (6), it is possible to determine an appropriate facility size based on the above-mentioned concept, taking into account not only water demand but also facility operation. becomes.
(1) Registering facility information (2) Obtaining measurement data (3) Forecasting annual demand in the planned renewal year (4) Creating water demand data under the worst environmental conditions (5) Under the worst environmental conditions (6) Presentation of facility scale plan and corresponding water operation plan plans Below, methods for realizing processes (1) to (6) will be explained using Figures 2 to 14. do.

First, the facility information registration process (1) will be explained. The administrator of the facility planning support device 101 inputs the names of the water treatment plants 103 and 104, the upper and lower limits of the amount of purified water, and the name of the connected facility in advance as information regarding the water treatment plants from the input unit 121, and also inputs the names of the facilities to be connected to. As information regarding the water reservoirs, the names of the water reservoirs 105, 106, and 107, the upper and lower limits of water storage, and the cross-sectional area of the water reservoirs are input. The facility information registration unit 123 of the facility planning support device 101 registers the input information in the water purification plant information management table 131 and the water distribution reservoir information management table 132 for each input entry of each water purification plant and each water distribution reservoir. 2 and 3 show examples of the water purification plant information management table 131 and the water distribution reservoir information management table 132, respectively, registered by the facility information registration unit 123.

As described above, the facility information registration unit 123 performs facility information registration processing.

Next, the measurement data acquisition process (2) will be explained. This process (2) is executed by the administrator of the facility planning support device 101 when calculating the facility scale for updating a water purification plant or a water distribution reservoir. The administrator inputs an instruction to acquire measurement data from the input unit 121. The measurement data acquisition unit 104 of the equipment planning support device 101 sends information to the monitoring and control system 110 via the network 111 about the amount of purified water, the water level of the water distribution reservoir, and the water demand for a predetermined period (for example, 10 years) from the past to the present time. This command instructs the transmission of each hourly measurement data. Upon receiving the instruction, the supervisory control system 110 transmits each of the measurement data and the measurement date and time (including the day of the week) via the network 111. The measurement data acquisition unit 104 receives the transmitted nuclear measurement data and the measurement date and time (including the day of the week), and registers it in the measurement data management table 133. At this time, the water level measurements of each of the water distribution reservoirs 105, 106, and 107 are multiplied by the cross-sectional area of each of the water distribution reservoirs to calculate the amount of water stored in each of the water distribution reservoirs, and the results are also registered in the measurement data management table 133. FIG. 4 shows an example of the measurement data management table 133 registered by the measurement data acquisition unit 104.

As described above, the measurement data acquisition unit 104 performs measurement data registration processing.

Next, the annual demand forecasting process (3) in the planned update year will be explained. This process (3) is executed by the administrator of the facility planning support device 101 after the above process (2) is performed. The administrator inputs the planned update year of the facility to be updated (for example, 5 years from this year) using the input unit 121 . The long-term demand prediction unit 125 of the facility planning support device 101 uses a known long-term water demand prediction technique to predict the annual water demand amount A of the target water distribution area in the planned renewal year. For example, the long-term demand forecasting unit 125 uses the population, elderly population, number of households, number of single-person households, number of household members, per capita citizen income, per capita consumption expenditure, etc. as explanatory variables in the area including the target water distribution area, A multiple regression model can be used in which the annual water demand in the target water distribution area is the dependent variable. The long-term demand forecasting unit 125 calculates past annual water demand performance data calculated from public data of the past performance and future prediction of the explanatory variables and the integration of the hourly demand registered in the measurement data management table 133. You can use this to construct a multiple regression model and make predictions.

As described above, the long-term demand forecasting unit 125 performs the annual demand forecasting process in the planned update year.

Next, the process (4) for creating water demand data under the worst environmental conditions will be explained. After the above process (3) is performed, the demand data creation unit 126 of the facility planning support device 101 determines that the water demand is large and the peak value of the water purification amount or water reservoir water storage amount corresponding to the facility scale of the water facility is high. We will create water demand data corresponding to the planned year of facility renewal for multiple days under the worst environmental conditions. FIG. 5 shows a flowchart of a process for creating water demand data corresponding to a planned year of facility renewal for a plurality of days under the worst environmental conditions.

In step S501, the demand data creation unit 126 selects a predetermined amount (update target Water demand performance data for the top 10 days with the highest daily peak value (water treatment amount if the facility is a water treatment plant, water storage amount if it is a distribution reservoir) (i.e. water demand performance data for the top 10 days under the worst environmental conditions where the above peak value is likely to be high) data). As assumed above, the facilities to be updated are the water purification plant 103 and the water distribution reservoir 106, so the demand data creation unit 126 calculates the daily peak value of the water purification amount of the water purification plant 103 from the weekday performance data for the past year. The water demand performance data for the top 10 days with the highest value is selected, and the water demand performance data for the top 10 days with the highest daily maximum value of the water storage amount of the water distribution reservoir 106 is selected. If there is an overlap in the selected 10 days' worth of data, it can be considered as 1 day's worth of data, and a maximum of 20 days' worth of data will be selected.

In step S502, the demand data creation unit 126 selects the actual data for holidays (Saturdays, Sundays, holidays) for the most recent year registered in the measurement data management table 133 for each facility to be updated, based on the scale of the facility. Water demand performance data for the top 10 days where the daily peak value of the corresponding predetermined amount (purified water amount if the updated facility is a water treatment plant, water storage amount if it is a distribution reservoir) is high (i.e. the above peak value is high) data under the worst possible environmental conditions). As assumed above, the facilities to be updated are the water purification plant 103 and the water distribution reservoir 106, so the demand data creation unit 126 determines the daily peak value of the water purification amount of the water purification plant 103 from the holiday performance data for the past year. The water demand performance data for the top 10 days with the highest value is selected, and the water demand performance data for the top 10 days with the highest daily maximum value of the water storage amount of the water distribution reservoir 106 is selected. If there is any overlap in the selected 10 days' worth of data, it can be considered as 1 day's worth of data, and up to 20 days' worth of data will be selected.

As mentioned above, data under the worst environmental conditions was selected separately from weekday data and holiday data, but this is because the water demand pattern (24 hour hour This is to select data under the worst environmental conditions so as to include both series patterns). If the above data is selected without separating weekday data and holiday data, there is a possibility that the water demand data under the worst environmental conditions on weekdays or holidays will not be selected, and as a result, the water demand data on weekdays or holidays may not be selected. Inappropriate facility sizing decisions may be made without considering the water demand under either of the worst environmental conditions. Therefore, as described above, by separating step S501 and step S502, it is possible to determine the facility scale taking into account the water demand under the worst environmental conditions on both weekdays and holidays, as will be described later, and its reliability can be improved. improves.

In step S503, the demand data creation unit 126 integrates the hourly demand performance values for the most recent year registered in the measurement data management table 133, and calculates the annual water demand performance value B.

In step S504, the demand data creation unit 126 updates the water demand data for all the days (maximum 40 days) selected in steps S501 and S502 with respect to the annual update schedule year predicted in the above process (3). Corrected by multiplying the predicted demand value A by the ratio (A/B) of the annual water demand actual value B for the most recent year, the water demand data for each day selected above for the most recent year is updated to the scheduled update year. Create corresponding water demand data. The demand data creation unit 126 then registers the created water demand data (predicted data) for all days (up to 40 days) in the scheduled update year water demand data management table 134. FIG. 6 shows an example of the scheduled update annual water demand data management table 134 registered by the demand data creation unit 126.

As described above, the demand data creation unit 126 creates water demand data under the worst environmental conditions.

Next, the facility scale determination process (5) based on water operation planning under the worst environmental conditions will be explained. After the above process (4) is performed, the water operation planning unit 127 of the facility planning support device 101 calculates the 24 hours of water demand for each water facility based on the water demand data for a plurality of days under the worst environmental conditions created above. Develop a water operation plan for each hour. At this time, the peak value (daily maximum value) of the purified water amount of water purification plant 103 corresponding to the facility scale of water purification plant 103, which is the facility to be updated, and the peak value (daily maximum value) of water storage amount of water distribution reservoir 106 corresponding to the facility scale of water distribution reservoir 106. ). Create a plan to reduce the amount of purified water or water storage so that the amount of water stored is minimized. Then, the water operation planning unit 127 determines an appropriate facility scale using the maximum value of each of the peak values in all of the planned plans for the plurality of days. In other words, the water operation planning department 127 is able to carry out appropriate water operation even under the worst environmental conditions, such as when the demand for water is large and the amount of purified water corresponding to the scale of the water supply facility and the peak value of water stored in the distribution reservoir tend to be high. By doing this, the scale of each facility is determined using the peak value (that is, the maximum value among all peak values) when it is considered that the value will not increase any higher.

In the water operation planning department 127, in order to formulate a plan that reduces the water purification amount or water storage amount so that the peak value of the above-mentioned water purification plant 103 water purification amount plan value and water level plan value of the water distribution reservoir 106 is the minimum, the following steps are performed. We are formulating water operation planning problems such as: This is shown below.

Regarding the water operation planning problem for formulating a water operation plan for the water supply facilities and water system structure shown in FIG. 1, predetermined variables for each facility are defined as follows. This is shown in FIG. 7 (parts not shown). Here, times t = 1, ..., 24 (1 hour unit, 24 hours), the flow rate (purified water amount, water distribution amount) is the total value from time t-1 to time t, and the water level is the value at time t. do.

・X1(t): Amount of purified water in the water purification plant 103 at time t (flow rate to the water distribution reservoir 105)
・X2(t): Amount of purified water in the water purification plant 104 at time t (flow rate to the water distribution reservoir 107)
-X3(t): Amount of water distributed from the water distribution reservoir 105 to the water distribution pipe network 108 at time t -X4(t): Amount of water distributed from the water distribution reservoir 106 to the water distribution pipe network 108 at time t -X5(t): Time t・X6(t): Flow rate from the distribution reservoir 105 to the distribution reservoir 106 at time t. ・X7(t): Flow rate from the distribution reservoir 107 to the distribution reservoir 106 at time t. Flow rate ・V1(t): Water level of the distribution reservoir 105 at time t (only the initial value is known)
・V2(t): Water level of the water distribution reservoir 105 at time t (only the initial value is known)
・V3(t): Water level of the water distribution reservoir 105 at time t (only the initial value is known)
・D(t): Demand quantity at time t (known)
・E1(t): Power consumption of the water purification equipment and pumps of the water purification plant 103 at time t ・E2(t): Power consumption of the water purification equipment and pumps of the water purification plant 104 at time t ・E3(t): Time t Power consumption of the pump that sends water from the water distribution reservoir 105 to the water distribution pipe network 108 at time t - E4 (t): Power consumption of the pump that sends water from the water distribution reservoir 106 to the water distribution pipe network 108 at time t - E5 (t): Time t Power consumption of the pump that sends water from the water distribution reservoir 107 to the water distribution pipe network 108 at time t E6 (t): Power consumption of the pump that sends water from the water distribution reservoir 105 to the water distribution reservoir 106 at time t E7 (t): At time t Power consumption of the pump that sends water from the distribution reservoir 107 to the distribution reservoir 106

At this time, the water operation planning problem (constraints, objective function) is generally formulated as follows using the above variables.

〇Constraint conditions (water balance formula)
・V1(t)=V1(t-1)+X1(t)-X3(t)-X6(t) (t=1,...,24)
・V2(t)=V2(t-1)+X6(t)+X7(t)-X4(t) (t=1,...,24)
・V3(t)=V3(t-1)+X2(t)-X5(t)-X7(t) (t=1,...,24)
・D(t)=X3(t)+X4(t)+X5(t) (t=1,...,24)

〇 Constraints (power consumption calculation formula)
・Water purification equipment of water purification plant 103 ・Pump power consumption E1(t)=F1(X1(t)) (F1 is a linear function or polygonal function of X1, t=1,...,24)
・Water purification equipment of water purification plant 104 ・Pump power consumption E2 (t) = F2 (X2 (t)) (F2 is a linear function or polygonal function of X2, t = 1, ..., 24)
・Pump power consumption of water reservoir 105 E3 (t) + E6 (t) = F3 (X3 (t)) + F6 (X6 (t)) (F3 is a linear function or polygonal line function of X3, F6 is a linear function or polygonal line of X6 function, t=1,...,24)
- Pump power consumption of water reservoir 106 E4 (t) = F4 (X4 (t)) (F4 is a linear function or polygonal function of X4, t = 1, ..., 24)
・Pump power consumption of water distribution reservoir 107 E5 (t) + E7 (t) = F5 (X5 (t)) + F7 (X7 (t)) (F5 is a linear function or polygonal line function of X5, F7 is a linear function or polygonal line of X7 function, t=1,...,24)

〇 Constraint conditions (upper and lower limit constraints)
・X1_MIN ≦ X1(t) ≦ X1_MAX
(X1_MIN is the lower limit value of X1, X1_MAX is the upper limit value of X1, t=1, ..., 24)
・X2_MIN ≦ X2(t) ≦ X2_MAX
(X2_MIN is the lower limit value of X2, X2_MAX is the upper limit value of X2, t=1,...,24)
・X3_MIN ≦ X3(t) ≦ X3_MAX (t=1,...,24)
(X3_MIN is the lower limit value of X3, X3_MAX is the upper limit value of X3, t=1,...,24)
・X4_MIN ≦ X4(t) ≦ X4_MAX (t=1,...,24)
(X4_MIN is the lower limit value of X4, X4_MAX is the upper limit value of X4, t=1,...,24)
・X5_MIN ≦ X5 (t) ≦ X5_MAX (t=1,...,24)
(X5_MIN is the lower limit value of X5, X5_MAX is the upper limit value of X5, t=1,...,24)
・X6_MIN ≦ X6 (t) ≦ X6_MAX (t=1,...,24)
(X6_MIN is the lower limit value of X6, X6_MAX is the upper limit value of X6, t=1,...,24)
・X7_MIN ≦ X7 (t) ≦ X7_MAX (t=1,...,24)
(X7_MIN is the lower limit value of X7, X7_MAX is the upper limit value of X7, t=1,...,24)
・V1_MIN ≦ V1(t) ≦ V1_MAX (t=1,...,24)
(V1_MIN is the lower limit value of V1, V1_MAX is the upper limit value of X2, t=1,...,24)
・V2_MIN ≦ V2 (t) ≦ V2_MAX (t=1,...,24)
(V2_MIN is the lower limit value of V2, V2_MAX is the upper limit value of V2, t=1,...,24)
・V3_MIN ≦ V3 (t) ≦ V3_MAX (t=1,...,24)
(V3_MIN is the lower limit value of V3, V3_MAX is the upper limit value of V3, t=1,...,24)

〇Objective function

（Ｖｊ＿ＴＡＲＧＥＴ（ｔ）は時刻ｔにおける貯水量Ｖｊ（ｔ）の目標貯水量、ｊ＝１、２、３）

(Vj_TARGET(t) is the target water storage amount of water storage amount Vj(t) at time t, j=1, 2, 3)

The four objective terms constituting the objective function J1 are those commonly used in water operation planning problems. The first term is a term that minimizes total power consumption (energy saving), the second term is a term that minimizes maximum power consumption (minimization of peak power during demand response, etc.), and the third term is a term that minimizes flow rate fluctuations. The fourth term is a term that minimizes the error between the target water storage amount and the target water storage amount (maintenance of target water storage amount).There is no need to use all the objective terms; It is only necessary to select only the necessary objective terms and configure the objective function accordingly. The water operation planning problem formulated above includes max symbols (maximum values), absolute value symbols, broken line functions, etc., but it can be converted to an equivalent linear programming problem or mixed integer programming problem, and can be converted to an equivalent linear programming problem or mixed integer programming problem, The solution can be solved using numerical analysis software such as (registered trademark) or GUROBI. By solving the above water operation planning problem, each flow rate X1 (t), ..., X7 (t) and each water storage amount V1 (t), ..., V1 (t) that minimize the value of the above objective function J1 are Planned values are calculated. That is, a water operation plan is drawn up, and by operating each pump so as to achieve each of the flow rate plan values described above, the amount of water stored in each distribution reservoir is varied so that the amount of water stored in each reservoir becomes the planned amount of water. As a result, the objective function value is minimized, and it is possible to achieve energy saving, peak power minimization, flow rate leveling, target water storage amount maintenance, etc. corresponding to each individual objective term of the objective function.

In the above-mentioned formulated water operation planning problem, if the objective function includes objective terms such as leveling the water treatment amount of the water treatment plant 103 and maintaining the target water storage amount of the water distribution reservoir 106, which are the target of updating, the water treatment plant There is a possibility that a plan will be created in which the peak value of the water purification amount in the water supply reservoir 103 and the peak value of the water storage amount in the water distribution reservoir 106 are reduced to some extent. However, generally, a water operation plan is created that makes maximum use of the current facility capacity of water treatment plants and water distribution reservoirs, so each of the above peak values is not necessarily reduced sufficiently.

Therefore, the water operation planning unit 127 solves the above-mentioned general water operation planning problem by changing the objective function or changing the constraint condition (upper limit constraint) to create a water operation plan that reduces each of the above peak values as much as possible. It is possible to plan.

When changing the objective function, add a term to minimize the peak water purification amount of the water purification plant 103 and a term to minimize the peak water storage amount of the water distribution reservoir 106 to be updated, and configure it as follows (for the purpose of simplifying the explanation, the objective function is In addition to the above additional terms, only the total power minimization term is left in the function). Since the above-mentioned peak minimization term is added to the objective function, by solving the water operation plan problem with the changed objective function, it becomes possible to formulate a water operation plan that reduces the above-mentioned peak value of the facility to be updated as much as possible.

〇Objective function

（Ｗ１、Ｗ２は重みパラメータ）

(W1 and W2 are weight parameters)

When changing the constraint conditions, the upper limit of the water purification amount of the water purification plant 103 that is subject to update and the upper limit of the water storage amount of the water distribution reservoir 106 shall be gradually lowered as follows (changes in other constraint conditions). None, no objective function added, for simplicity of explanation, the objective function is only the total power minimization term), changing the constraint conditions (reducing the upper limit) and solving the water operation planning problem. By repeating this process until it is no longer obtained, it becomes possible to formulate a water operation plan that reduces the peak value of the facility to be updated as much as possible.

〇Constraint conditions (upper limit constraint)
・X1(t) ≦ X1_MAX-n・ΔX1
(X1_MAX is the initial upper limit of X1, ΔX1 is a predetermined amount, n=0, 1, 2,...)
・V2(t) ≦ V2_MAX-n・ΔV2
(V2_MAX is the initial upper limit value of V2, ΔV2 is a predetermined amount, n=0, 1, 2,...)

〇Objective function

（説明の簡略化のためトータル電力消費量最小化項のみ）

(To simplify the explanation, only the total power consumption minimization term)

The water operation planning unit 127 determines the facility scale of the facility to be updated using either the water operation planning problem with the objective function changed or the water operation planning problem with the constraint changed.

First, a process for determining the facility scale of a facility to be updated when using the water operation planning problem P1 with a changed objective function will be described. FIG. 8 shows a flowchart of the process of determining the facility scale of the facility to be updated when using the water operation planning problem P1 with a changed objective function.

In step S801, the water operation planning unit 127 initializes (sets the minimum value) the weight parameter W1 of the objective function J2 of the water operation planning problem P1.

In step S802, the water operation planning unit 127 initializes (sets the minimum value) the weight parameter W2 of the objective function J2 of the water operation planning problem P1.

In step S803, the water operation planning unit 127 selects unused water demand data under the worst environmental conditions registered in the scheduled update year water demand data management table 134 (the water operation plan can be formulated using the data). Select data for 24 hours a day.

In step S804, the water operation planning unit 127 uses the water operation planning problem P1 with the objective function J2 to calculate the 24-hour Develop a water usage plan. Then, the water operation planning unit 127 calculates the planned plan (planned values of each flow rate X1(t), ..., X7(t) and each water storage amount V1(t), ..., V1(t)) and the total The power consumption plan value (the value of the first term of the objective function J2) is temporarily stored in the storage device.

In step S805, the water operation planning unit 127 checks whether a water operation plan has been created for all the water demand data registered in the scheduled update year water demand data management table 134. If planning has been performed for all water demand data, the process advances to step S806; otherwise, the process advances to step S803.

In step S806, the water operation planning unit 127 selects the peak water purification amount value (daily maximum value) of the water purification plant 103, which is the facility to be updated, and Calculate the maximum value (maximum value of all plans) of the water storage volume peak value (daily maximum value) of The values are determined as appropriate facility scales for the water purification plant 103 and the water distribution reservoir 106, respectively. Then, the water operation planning unit 127 selects the plan plan for the day when each peak value is the maximum, weight parameters W1 and W2 at that time, each of the maximum peak values (facility scale plan), and the total power consumption. The planned consumption amount and the plan (planned values for each flow rate X1(t), ..., X7(t) and each water storage amount V1(t), ..., V1(t)) are stored in the water operation plan management table 135. Register. There are as many water operation plan management tables 135 as there are facilities to be updated, and in the case of this embodiment, there is a table 135 for registering the above-mentioned data on the day when the peak value of water purification amount of the water purification plant 103 is the maximum; There are two types of tables, the table 135, for registering the data on the day when the peak value of the water storage amount in the water distribution reservoir 106 is the maximum. An example of each water operation plan management table 135 registered by the water operation planning unit 127 is shown in FIGS. 9 and 10. One entry is registered in two types of tables 135 for each combination of values of weight parameters W1 and W2. Here, a series of processes from step S803 to step S806 are processes for the same combination of values of heavy parameters W1 and W2.

In step S807, the water operation planning unit 127 checks whether the weight parameter W2 has reached a predetermined maximum value. If the maximum value has been reached, the process advances to step S809; otherwise, the process advances to step S808.

In step S808, the water operation planning unit 127 adds a predetermined amount ΔW2 to the weight parameter W2 and updates it (W2←W2+ΔW2). In addition, the water operation planning unit 127 has not updated all the water demand data under the worst environmental conditions registered in the water demand data management table 134 for the year to be updated because the weight parameters have been changed (the water operation plan problem has been changed). Set to use.

In step S809, the water operation planning unit 127 checks whether the weight parameter W1 has reached a predetermined maximum value. If the maximum value has been reached, all processing ends; otherwise, the process advances to step S810.

In step S810, the water operation planning unit 127 adds a predetermined amount ΔW1 to the weight parameter W1 and updates it (W1←W1+ΔW1). In addition, the water operation planning unit 127 has not updated all the water demand data under the worst environmental conditions registered in the water demand data management table 134 for the year to be updated because the weight parameters have been changed (the water operation plan problem has been changed). Set to use.

As described above, in the water operation planning unit 127, using the planning problem P1, the above-mentioned worst A 24-hour water operation plan for each water facility is created when water demand data for multiple days under environmental conditions is given. In the proposed plan, the peak value (daily maximum value) of water purification amount in water treatment plant 103, which corresponds to the facility scale of water treatment plant 103, which is the facility to be updated, and the peak water storage amount in water distribution reservoir 106, which corresponds to the facility scale of water distribution reservoir 106. The value (daily maximum value) is minimized. An appropriate facility scale is determined using the maximum value of the minimized peak values (maximum value of all plans) of all the plans prepared for the plurality of days. Therefore, appropriate facility scale plans for the water purification plant 103 and the water distribution reservoir 106 are determined for each combination of weight parameter values. In this example, the maximum value of each of the above peak values was used to determine the appropriate facility size, but it is not necessarily necessary to use the maximum value of each of the above peak values, and other values may be substituted depending on the environment. good. For example, the water operation planning unit 127 selects a predetermined value, such as a value that is a predetermined value smaller than the maximum value of each of the peak values (for example, a value that is 98% of the maximum value of each of the peak values). If there is a value that satisfies the conditions, the facility size may be determined by considering that value as an appropriate value.

Next, a process for determining the facility scale of the facility to be updated when using the water operation plan problem P2 with changed constraints will be described. FIG. 11 shows a flowchart of the process of determining the facility scale of the facility to be updated when using the water operation plan problem P2 with changed constraints.

In step S1101, the water operation planning unit 127 initializes the upper limit value of the water purification amount Set the value X1_MAX).

In step S1102, the water operation planning unit 127 initializes the upper limit value of the water storage amount V2(t) of the distribution reservoir 106, which is the facility to be updated in the constraint condition (upper limit constraint) of the water operation plan problem P2 (predetermined initial upper limit Set the value V2_MAX).

In step S1103, the water operation planning unit 127 selects unused water demand data under the worst environmental conditions registered in the water demand data management table 134 for the year scheduled to be updated. Select data for 24 hours a day.

In step S1104, the water operation planning unit 127 uses the water operation planning problem P1 with the objective function J2 to solve the problem when water demand data under the selected worst environmental condition is given. Develop a 24-hour water operation plan for each water facility. The water operation planning unit 127 then confirms whether a feasible solution has been obtained (because the constraint conditions keep changing, a feasible solution may not be obtained). If a feasible solution is obtained, the process advances to step S1105; otherwise, the process advances to step S1108.

In step S1105, the water operation planning unit 127 determines the plan drawn up in step S1104 (each flow rate X1(t), ..., X7(t) and each water storage amount V1(t), ..., V1(t)). The planned value) and the total power consumption planned value (value of the objective function J3) are temporarily stored in the storage device.

In step S1106, the water operation planning unit 127 checks whether a water operation plan has been created for all the water demand data registered in the water demand data management table 134 for the year to be updated. If planning has been performed for all water demand data, the process advances to step S1107; otherwise, the process advances to step S1103.

In step S1107, the water operation planning unit 127 selects the water purification amount peak value (daily maximum value) of the water purification plant 103, which is the facility to be updated, and the water treatment reservoir 106 from among all the plan plans temporarily stored in the storage device. Calculate the maximum value (maximum value of all plans) of the peak water storage volume value (daily maximum value). The water operation planning unit 127 determines the calculated maximum value of all plans for the peak value of water purification amount and the maximum value of all plans for the peak value of water storage amount as appropriate facility scales for the water purification plant 103 and the water distribution reservoir 106, respectively. Then, the water operation planning unit 127 selects a plan for the day when each peak value becomes the maximum, and selects the upper limit value of the water purification amount X1, the upper limit value of the water storage amount V2, and each of the above-mentioned peak values that are the maximum at that time. (proposed facility scale), total power consumption plan value, and plan (planned value for each flow rate X1(t), ..., X7(t), and each water storage amount V1(t), ..., V1(t)) is registered in the water operation plan management table 135. There are as many water operation plan management tables 135 as there are facilities to be updated, and in the case of this embodiment, there is a table 135 for registering the above-mentioned data on the day when the peak value of water purification amount of the water purification plant 103 is the maximum; There are two types of tables, the table 135, for registering the data on the day when the peak value of the water storage amount in the water distribution reservoir 106 is the maximum. An example of each water operation plan management table 135 registered by the water operation planning unit 127 is shown in FIGS. 12 and 13. For the two types of tables 135, one entry is registered for each combination of the upper limit value of the water purification amount X1 and the upper limit value of the water storage amount V2. Here, a series of processes from step S1103 to step S1107 are processes for the same combination of the upper limit value of the water purification amount X1 and the upper limit value of the water storage amount V2.

In step S1108, the water operation planning unit 127 checks whether the upper limit value of the current water storage amount V2 is the predetermined initial upper limit value V2_MAX. If it is the initial upper limit value, all processing ends; otherwise, the process advances to step S1109.

In step S1109, the water operation planning unit 127 subtracts a predetermined amount ΔV2 from the upper limit value of the water storage amount V2 and updates it (V2 upper limit value←V2 upper limit value−ΔV2). In addition, the water operation planning department 127 has not updated all the water demand data under the worst environmental conditions registered in the water demand data management table 134 for the year to be updated because the constraint conditions have been changed (the water operation plan problem has been changed). Set to use.

In step S1110, the water operation planning unit 127 subtracts and updates the predetermined amount ΔX1 from the upper limit value of the water purification amount X1 (X1 upper limit value←X1 upper limit value−ΔX1). In addition, the water operation planning department 127 has not updated all the water demand data under the worst environmental conditions registered in the water demand data management table 134 for the year to be updated because the constraint conditions have been changed (the water operation plan problem has been changed). Set to use.

As described above, the water operation planning unit 127 uses the planning problem P2 to calculate all possible combinations of the predetermined values of the water purification amount X1 upper limit and the water storage amount V2 upper limit included in the constraint conditions of the planning problem P1. On the other hand, a 24-hour water operation plan for each water facility is created when water demand data for a plurality of days under the worst environmental conditions is given. In the proposed plan, the peak value (daily maximum value) of water purification amount in water treatment plant 103, which corresponds to the facility scale of water treatment plant 103, which is the facility to be updated, and the peak water storage amount in water distribution reservoir 106, which corresponds to the facility scale of water distribution reservoir 106. The value (daily maximum value) is minimized. An appropriate facility scale is determined using the maximum value of the minimized peak values (maximum value of all plans) of all the plans prepared for the plurality of days. Therefore, appropriate facility scales of the water purification plant 103 and the water distribution reservoir 106 are determined for each combination of the upper limit value of the water purification amount X1 and the upper limit value of the water storage amount V2.

As described above, the water operation planning unit 127 performs a facility scale determination process based on water operation planning under the worst environmental conditions.

Next, the presentation process (6) of the facility scale plan and each corresponding water operation plan plan will be explained. After the above process (5) is performed, the facility plan presentation unit 128 of the facility plan support device 101 displays the facility scale (the peak value of the water purification amount and the water reservoir water storage amount) of the facility to be updated that has been determined, as well as the above-mentioned We will present water demand data on peak days and a draft water operation plan.

The facility plan presentation unit 128 presents an appropriate facility size plan for the facility to be updated for each entry registered in the water operation plan plan management table 135 (peak water purification amount value of the water purification plant 103, peak water storage amount value of the water distribution reservoir 106). , total power consumption plan value on the day when the peak occurs, water demand forecast data, and water operation plan (each flow rate X1 (t), ..., X7 (t), and each water storage amount V1 (t), ..., planned value of V1(t)) is created and displayed on the display unit 122. FIG. 14 shows an example of a display screen showing the facility scale plan, water operation plan plan, etc. displayed on the display unit 122. As a result, the administrator of the water supply system 102 determines the appropriate facility size for each facility to be updated while comparing the multiple facility size plans displayed on the display unit 122 with the total power consumption plan value at that time. It becomes possible to do this.

As described above, the facility plan presentation unit 128 performs the process of presenting the facility scale plan and each corresponding water operation plan plan.

As described above, according to the embodiments of the present invention, the worst case scenario is that the water demand in the year of facility renewal is large and the peak value of the water purification amount corresponding to the facility scale of the water supply facility and the peak value of the water reservoir water storage amount are likely to be high. Under environmental conditions, the scale of the facility is determined based on the peak value when the peak value is reduced as much as possible through water operation. As a result, it becomes possible to determine the appropriate facility size of a water supply facility, taking into account not only the water demand at the time of facility renewal, but also the effect of reducing the facility size due to water operation.

101...Equipment planning support device,
102...Water system,
103, 104...Water treatment plant,
105, 106, 107... water reservoir,
108...Water pipe network,
109...Demander,
110... Supervisory control system,
111...Network,
121...input section,
122...display section,
123...Facility information registration department,
124...Measurement data acquisition unit,
125...Long-term demand forecasting department,
126...Demand data creation department,
127...Water Operation Planning Department,
128...Equipment plan presentation department,
131...Water treatment plant information management table,
132... Water reservoir information management table,
133...Measurement data management table,
134... Annual water demand data management table scheduled for update,
135...Water operation plan management table

Claims (6)

A facility planning support device that supports determining facility scale when updating a water treatment plant or water distribution reservoir,
a water demand forecasting unit that predicts the annual water demand in the year in which the facilities of the water distribution district to which water is distributed by the water treatment plant or the water distribution reservoir is scheduled to be updated;
The actual water demand data for a predetermined time unit for a plurality of days in the water distribution district under adverse conditions in which the amount of purified water at the water treatment plant or the amount of water stored in the water distribution reservoir increases is corresponded to the actual water demand amount data for each of the water demand amounts. Using the actual annual demand value and the result of the water demand forecast for the planned year of facility renewal, each is corrected so that it becomes the water demand data corresponding to the planned year of facility renewal. A water demand data creation department that creates multiple water demand forecast data corresponding to the planned year of facility renewal;
Each of the water operation plans for the water treatment plant or the water supply facility including the distribution reservoir is prepared when each of the plurality of water demand forecast data created above is given, and the amount of purified water of the water treatment plant in all the plans that are drawn up is determined. a water operation planning department that calculates a peak value or a value that satisfies a predetermined condition among the peak value of the water storage amount of the water distribution reservoir, and determines the value that satisfies the predetermined condition as the facility scale of the water purification plant or the water distribution reservoir, respectively; ,
An equipment planning support device comprising: The water demand data creation unit creates water demand forecast data corresponding to the planned year of facility renewal under the adverse conditions so as to include both weekday water demand data and holiday water demand data.
The equipment planning support device according to claim 1, characterized in that: The water operation planning unit formulates a water operation plan so as to reduce a peak value of water purification amount of the water purification plant or a peak value of water storage amount of a water distribution reservoir, which is an update target.
The equipment planning support device according to claim 1, characterized in that: The water operation planning unit includes a term for minimizing the peak value of the water purification amount of the water purification plant or a term for minimizing the peak value of the water storage amount of the water distribution reservoir, which is the objective function of the water operation plan problem in the water operation plan. 4. The equipment planning support device according to claim 3, further comprising: The water operation planning department gradually lowers the value of the upper limit constraint on the water purification amount of the water treatment plant that is the target of updating, or increases the upper limit constraint on the water storage amount of the distribution reservoir, in the constraint conditions of the water operation plan problem in the water operation plan. formulating a water operation plan so as to gradually lower the value and reduce the peak value of the amount of purified water at the water treatment plant or the peak value of the amount of water stored in the water distribution reservoir;
The equipment planning support device according to claim 3, characterized in that: A facility planning support method for supporting facility scale determination when updating a water treatment plant or water distribution reservoir , which is executed by a computer,
a water demand forecasting step of predicting the annual water demand in the year in which the facilities of the water distribution district to which water is distributed by the water treatment plant or the water distribution reservoir are scheduled to be updated;
The actual water demand data for a predetermined time unit for a plurality of days in the water distribution district under adverse conditions in which the amount of purified water at the water treatment plant or the amount of water stored in the water distribution reservoir increases is corresponded to the actual water demand amount data for each of the water demand amounts. Using the actual annual demand value and the result of the water demand forecast for the planned year of facility renewal, each is corrected so that it becomes the water demand data corresponding to the planned year of facility renewal. a water demand data creation step of creating multiple water demand forecast data corresponding to the planned year of facility renewal;
Each of the water operation plans for the water treatment plant or the water supply facility including the distribution reservoir is prepared when each of the plurality of water demand forecast data created above is given, and the amount of purified water of the water treatment plant in all the plans that are drawn up is determined. A water operation planning step of calculating a peak value or a peak value of the water storage amount of the water distribution reservoir that satisfies a predetermined condition, and determining the value that satisfies the predetermined condition as the facility scale of the water purification plant or the water distribution reservoir, respectively; ,
An equipment planning support method characterized by comprising:

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