JP7631103B2 - Electricity supply and demand adjustment device, electricity supply and demand adjustment method, and program - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a power supply and demand adjustment device, a power supply and demand adjustment method, and a program.

In recent years, balancing groups (hereinafter referred to as "BG") have been used as a group of businesses that settle imbalances (differences between plans and actual results) in electricity trading. BGs include generation BGs made up of power generation businesses and demand BGs made up of consumers (e.g., retail electricity businesses).

Since the power generation BG works to simultaneously balance the amount of electricity as a whole, it is possible to reduce the risk of imbalances occurring. In addition, the power generation BG can sell the electricity it generates to its contract counterpart, the demand BG, and to JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange).

JP 2021-47519 A

For example, when the price of electricity trading on JEPX rises, a power generation BG may want to sell less electricity to its bilateral contract counterpart, the demand BG, and increase the electricity it sells on JEPX. However, in previous bilateral contracts for electricity trading, the amount of electricity traded during a unit period was generally fixed, so it was not possible to change the amount of electricity traded for each purchase destination. Also, for the demand BG, if the amount of electricity it buys from the power generation BG decreases, it will suffer an electricity shortage, so it will have no motivation to take such measures unless there is some benefit to it.

The objective of the embodiment of the present invention is to provide an electric power supply and demand adjustment device, an electric power supply and demand adjustment method, and a program that can appropriately adjust electric power supply and demand in accordance with a bilateral contract that allows the amount of electric power purchased and sold to be flexibly changed in electric power trading between a generation BG and a demand BG.

The power supply and demand adjustment device of the embodiment includes a power generation BG (Balancing Group) planning unit that formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan for a power generation BG, a demand BG planning unit that formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for a demand BG that has a bilateral power trading contract with the power generation BG, and a power market trading unit price prediction unit that predicts the power market trading unit price, which is the unit price of power trading in the power trading market, and outputs a power market trading unit price prediction value. The power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of power sold to the power trading market and the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price prediction value, and the demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan according to the adjustment of the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic overview of the entire power system according to the embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a first modified example of each of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a second modified example of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment. FIG. 4 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the information processing apparatus according to the embodiment. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a first objective function in the embodiment. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a second objective function in the embodiment. FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram of the evaluation of demand imbalance risk and its reflection in the demand BG procurement unit price in the embodiment. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of an evaluation of a power generation imbalance risk and its reflection on a power source output adjustment unit price in the embodiment. FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing a process performed by the information processing apparatus according to the embodiment.

The power supply and demand adjustment device, power supply and demand adjustment method, and program of this embodiment will be described below with reference to the drawings. In the following description, "system" means a power system. Also, "consumer" means a power consumer. Also, "load" means a power load.

DR (Demand Response) refers to adjusting the amount of electricity consumed by consumers in order to balance the supply and demand of electricity. DR that lowers electricity demand by reducing electricity consumption by consumers is called "lowering DR." DR that raises electricity demand by increasing electricity consumption by consumers is called "upper DR." Rewards (e.g., money) given to consumers in response to DR are called incentives.

The compensation imposed on consumers and retailers who do not comply with DR is called a "penalty." Note that the presence or absence of incentives and penalties, and the calculation method for the amounts if there are any, may differ depending on the system at the time.

First, an overview of the power system S of the embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 1. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic overview of the power system S of the embodiment. The power system S includes a grid operator system 1, a market trading system 2 (power trading market), a power generation BG3, and a demand BG4.

Grid operator system 1 is a system used by a grid operator who operates a power grid to supply commercial power.

The market trading system 2 is, for example, an electricity market trading system used by JEPX. Hereinafter, the market trading system 2 may be referred to as "JEPX."

The power generation BG3 is a BG by the power generation company 31 (31a, 31b). When there is no need to distinguish between the power generation companies A31a and B31b, they are simply referred to as the power generation company 31. The same applies to other configurations.

The power generation business operator 31 includes a renewable energy power generation resource 311 (hereinafter also simply referred to as "renewable energy") and an adjustable power source resource 312 (hereinafter also referred to as "adjustable power source" or "power source"). The renewable energy power generation resource 311 is a power generation resource that uses renewable energy (solar power, wind power, biomass, hydroelectric power, geothermal power, etc.). Note that the electricity generated by the renewable energy power generation resource 311 is often purchased at a purchase price higher than the electricity market price under the FIT (Feed-in Tariff) system or FIP (Feed-in-Premium) system. Therefore, it is expected that the utilization of the renewable energy power generation resource 311 will progress in the future.

The adjustable power resource 312 is, for example, a power generation resource that uses non-renewable energy (thermal power, nuclear power, etc.).

Demand BG4 is a BG provided by a consumer 41 (e.g., a retail electricity supplier). The consumer 41 includes a load 411, a storage battery 412, and a renewable energy power generation resource 413.

Load 411 is a device or equipment that consumes power.

The storage battery 412 is a battery that can be repeatedly charged and discharged, and is also called a secondary battery or battery.

Renewable energy power generation resource 413 is a power generation resource that uses renewable energy.

A bilateral contract for electricity trading is then concluded between power generation BG3 and demand BG4. Power generation BG3 can sell the generated electricity to demand BG4, which is the counterpart of the bilateral contract, and to the market trading system 2.

For example, when the electricity trading price in the market trading system 2 rises, the power generation BG3 may want to reduce the amount of electricity it sells to its bilateral contract partner, the demand BG4, and increase the amount of electricity it sells in the market trading system 2.

However, in the bilateral contracts for electricity trading up to now, the amount of electricity traded during a unit period is generally fixed, and it is not possible to change the amount of electricity for each purchase destination. Also, for demand BG4, if the amount of electricity purchased from generator BG3 decreases, there will be a shortage of electricity, so unless there is some benefit, there will be no motivation to take such measures.

First, consider a bilateral contract for power trading between power generation BG3 and demand BG4 that allows the amount of power bought and sold to be flexibly changed. Then, in accordance with such a bilateral contract, for example, power generation BG3 can reduce the amount of power it sells to demand BG4 and increase the amount of power it sells to market trading system 2, and share the profits gained from this between power generation BG3 and demand BG4, which will benefit not only power generation BG3 but also demand BG4. Below, we will explain a technology that can appropriately adjust power supply and demand in accordance with a bilateral contract that allows the amount of power bought and sold to be flexibly changed in this way.

A first modification example of each of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 2. FIG. 2 is a diagram that illustrates a first modification example of each of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment.

Figure 2 (a) shows the state before the adjustment of power supply and demand. As shown in Figure 2 (a1), a power generation plan and a sales plan are formulated for power generation BG3. In this example, the power generation plan includes renewable energy BG (power generated by renewable energy BG) and thermal power BG (power generated by thermal power BG).

In addition, the sales destinations in the sales plan include bilateral retail BG (demand BG4) and JEPX (market trading system 2).

Furthermore, as shown in FIG. 2(a2), a demand plan and a procurement plan are formulated for demand BG4. In this example, power generation BG3 (relative procurement) is determined as the procurement source in the procurement plan in response to demand BG (demanded power by demand BG) in the demand plan.

Now, let us assume that in the hour-ahead market, an increase in the electricity trading price is expected in JEPX (market trading system 2). In that case, as shown in Figure 2 (b1), power generation BG3 wants to reduce the relative retail BG in its sales plan and increase JEPX. Also, since it is a relative contract that allows the amount of electricity purchased and sold to be changed flexibly, as shown in Figure 2 (b2), it is possible to reduce demand by using a downward DR in the demand plan of demand BG4, and accordingly reduce relative procurement in the procurement plan.

Let us now consider a case where a downward DR fails. The following three cases (1) to (3) can be cited as examples of a downward DR failure.
(1) Power generation BG3 requested a lowering DR from demand BG4, but demand BG4 refused.
(2) Demand BG4 accepted the down DR, but its subordinate customer 41 rejected it.
(3) Although both demand BG4 and consumer 41 accepted the lower DR, consumer 41 was unable to actually reduce its power consumption.

When evaluating (predicting) the risk of failure of a downward DR, the calculation methods can differ between (1), (2), and (3). Also, if the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4 are different players, any of (1) to (3) can occur. Also, if the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4 are the same player, (1) does not occur, but (2) and (3) can occur.

As shown in FIG. 2(c1), in power generation BG3, the power generation results are the same as the power generation plan in FIG. 2(b1), and the sales results are the same as the sales plan in FIG. 2(b1).

On the other hand, as shown in Figure 2 (c2), after gate close (hereinafter also referred to as "GC"), in demand BG4, neither the demand actual nor the procurement actual has realized the demand plan and procurement plan in Figure 2 (b2), respectively, and it needs to be settled as a demand imbalance.

For example, if the demand imbalance is low and the losses due to the demand imbalance are taken into account, it is sufficient if there is an overall profit due to the profit gained by changing the sales volume of electricity to each buyer in power generation BG3. Therefore, if such a prediction can be made in advance, a decision can be made to change the sales volume of electricity to each buyer in power generation BG3.

Demand BG4 can also choose to purchase the electricity shortage from JEPX.

Next, FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a second modified example of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment. While FIG. 2 describes the case where the downward DR fails, FIG. 3 describes the case where the amount of power generation from renewable energy is less than planned. FIGS. 3(a) and (b) are similar to FIGS. 2(a) and (b).

Also, as shown in Figure 3(c2), the demand plan and procurement plan for demand BG4 are the same as those in Figure 3(b2).

As shown in Figure 3 (c1), after GC, the actual power generation in power generation BG3 does not achieve the power generation plan in Figure 3 (b1). In other words, the thermal power BG's actual power generation is the same as the plan, but the renewable energy BG's actual power generation is less than the plan. In this case, the following measures (11) and (12) can be considered to address the shortfall in power generation.

(11) Switch to another power source within power generation BG3 (alternative power generation)
(12) Settlement as power generation imbalance

And, for example, even if the increased costs of implementing (11) or (12) are taken into account, it is sufficient if the profits gained by changing the sales volume of electricity to each buyer in Power Generation BG3 result in an overall profit. Therefore, if such a prediction can be made in advance, it is possible to make the decision to change the sales volume of electricity to each buyer in Power Generation BG3.

So far, we have explained the case where a downward DR is made when an increase in the electricity trading price on JEPX is expected, but the same applies to the opposite case where an upward DR is made when a decrease in the electricity trading price on JEPX is expected.

The trading strategy, post-GC risks, and countermeasures for Power Generation BG3 in the cases where the electricity trading market price rises or falls in the hourly market are summarized as follows:

(When the electricity trading market price rises in the pre-hours market)
(Trading strategy 1) Increase in JEPX electricity sales volume with lower DR (Risk 1 after GC) Failure of lower DR (Countermeasure 1) Evaluate the risk of failure of lower DR and adjust the amount of lower DR (Countermeasure 2) Accept demand imbalance (Countermeasure 1 not implemented)

(Risk 2 after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Countermeasure 1) Increase or decrease in lower DR (plan) (Countermeasure 2) Substitute with regulated power source (plan)
(Solution 3) Replace with regulated power source (control)
(Countermeasure 4) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 to 3 not implemented)

(Trading strategy 2) Increase in JEPX electricity sales due to increased output from regulated power sources (Risks after GC) Decrease and increase in renewable energy output (Countermeasure 1) Switch to regulated power sources (plan)
(Solution 2) Replace with regulated power source (control)
(Countermeasure 3) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 and 2 not implemented)

(When the electricity trading market price falls in the pre-hours market)
(Trading strategy 1) JEPX electricity sales volume decreases due to up-DR (Risk 1 after GC) Up-DR failure (Countermeasure 1) Evaluate the risk of up-DR failure and adjust the up-DR volume (Countermeasure 2) Accept demand imbalance (Countermeasure 1 not implemented)

(Risk 2 after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Countermeasure 1) Decrease or increase in increased DR (plan) (Countermeasure 2) Substitute with regulated power source (plan)
(Solution 3) Replace with regulated power source (control)
(Countermeasure 4) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 to 3 not implemented)

(Trading strategy 2) Decrease in JEPX electricity sales due to decrease in regulated power source output (Risk after GC) Decrease and increase in renewable energy output (Countermeasure 1) Switch to regulated power source (plan)
(Solution 2) Replace with regulated power source (control)
(Countermeasure 3) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 and 2 not implemented)

Next, the information processing device 5 (electricity supply and demand adjustment device) of the embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 4. FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of the information processing device 5 of the embodiment. The information processing device 5 is, for example, a PC (Personal Computer).

The information processing device 5 includes a memory unit 51, an input unit 52, a display unit 53, a communication unit 54, and a processing unit 55.

The storage unit 51 is realized by, for example, a RAM (Random Access Memory), a ROM (Read Only Memory), an SSD (Solid State Drive), or an HDD (Hard Disk Drive), and stores various information. The storage unit 51 stores, for example, various setting values, various parameters, a predetermined objective function, various calculation results, and the like. The storage unit 51 includes a DB (Data Base) 511.

In DB511, information such as the power generation BG unit price (power output adjustment unit price), the power output changeable range, the demand adjustment range, the demand BG adjustment unit price (for consumers/for demand BG) (also referred to as the "demand adjustment unit price"), the electricity market trading unit price (or forecast value), and the power generation/demand imbalance unit price (or forecast value) are stored (details will be described later).

The input unit 52 is a means by which the operator inputs various operations, such as a mouse, keyboard, touch panel, etc.

The display unit 53 is a means for displaying information, such as an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) or a touch panel.

The communication unit 54 is a communication interface for communicating with external devices.

The processing unit 55 is realized by, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and executes various calculation processes. The processing unit 55 includes, for example, as functional units, an acquisition unit 551, a renewable energy power generation prediction unit 552, a power market trading unit price prediction unit 553, an imbalance unit price prediction unit 554, a power generation BG planning unit 555, a demand BG planning unit 556, an incentive calculation unit 557, a profit allocation calculation unit 558, and a display control unit 559.

The acquisition unit 551 acquires various information from the grid operator system 1, the market trading system 2, the power generation BG 3, the demand BG 4, the DB 511, etc.

The renewable energy power generation prediction unit 552 predicts the amount of power generated by the renewable energy power generation resource 311 and the renewable energy power generation resource 413 based on past data, weather data, etc.

The electricity market trading unit price prediction unit 553 predicts the electricity market trading unit price, which is the unit price for electricity trading in the market trading system 2, and outputs the electricity market trading unit price prediction value.

The imbalance cost prediction unit 554 predicts the power generation imbalance cost and the demand imbalance cost.

The power generation BG planning unit 555 formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan for the power generation BG 3. The power generation BG planning unit 555 adjusts the amount of electricity sold to the market trading system 2 and the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG 4 in the sales plan according to the predicted value of the electricity market trading unit price.

The power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the priority of the power sources whose output is to be adjusted based on the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, which is the cost unit price of the output of the power source (adjustable power source resource 312) of the power generation BG3.

The power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the amount of electricity to be sold to the market trading system 2 in the sales plan based on the priority of the power source that adjusts the output and the priority of the demand resource that adjusts the demand (determined by the demand BG planning unit 556).

The power generation BG planning unit 555 predicts the risk of power generation imbalance due to fluctuations in the output of the power source of the power generation BG 3 after GC in the market trading system 2, calculates the expected value of profit and loss based on the risk of power generation imbalance as the power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflects the power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value in the power generation BG unit price.

The demand BG planning unit 556 formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for demand BG4, which has a bilateral power trading contract with power generation BG3. The demand BG planning unit 556 adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with the adjustment of the amount of power sold to demand BG3 in the sales plan.

The demand BG planning unit 556 determines the priority order of the demand resources for which demand is to be adjusted based on the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, which is the unit cost related to adjusting the demand plan and procurement plan of the demand resources (load 411, storage battery 412, etc.) of demand BG3.

The demand BG planning unit 556 predicts the risk of demand imbalance due to the adjustment of demand resources in the demand plan not being carried out as planned after GC, calculates the expected profit and loss based on the risk of demand imbalance as the demand imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflects the demand imbalance profit and loss expected value in the demand BG adjustment unit price.

The incentive calculation unit 557 calculates the incentive amount for the adjustment of the demand plan and procurement plan by the demand BG planning unit 556.

The profit allocation calculation unit 558 calculates the allocation of the profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan to power generation BG3 and demand BG4.

The display control unit 559 displays various information on the display unit 53. For example, the display control unit 559 causes the display unit 53 to display the power generation BG unit price, the demand BG adjustment unit price, the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, the power generation imbalance profit and loss expectation value of the power source, the demand imbalance profit and loss expectation value of the demand resource, the penalty when the adjustment of the demand resource is not performed as planned, and the profit expected to be obtained by adjusting the sales plan.

Here, FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a first objective function in an embodiment. Processing using the first objective function example is performed, for example, by the power generation BG planning unit 555 coordinating with the demand BG planning unit 556 and the like. Here, the aim is to maximize profits in the coordinated BGs (power generation BG3 and demand BG4). Therefore, the relative electricity sales revenue and demand adjustment costs (between BGs), which are transactions between power generation BG3 and demand BG4, are not taken into consideration. In addition, power generation imbalance and demand imbalance are paid to the power transmission and distribution company 9. Then, maximization of the following objective function F1 is considered.

Objective function F1
= "Electricity sales revenue from market trading system 2 (JEPX) (= market trading volume x market trading price)"
- "Power generation cost (= power generation BG unit price x power generation amount)"
- "Demand adjustment cost (for consumers) (= consumer adjustment unit price × demand adjustment amount)"
- "Power generation imbalance (forecast value)"
- "Demand imbalance (forecast)"

A calculation is performed to maximize the value of this objective function F1, and each parameter (market trading volume of electricity, amount of power generation, amount of demand adjustment, etc.) is determined.

The power generation imbalance (forecast value) (power generation imbalance profit/loss expectation value) is incorporated (reflected) in the power generation BG unit price, and the demand imbalance (forecast value) (demand imbalance profit/loss expectation value) is incorporated (reflected) in the demand BG adjustment unit price, so that the imbalances are handled in a merit order that takes them into account.

Next, FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a second objective function in an embodiment. Processing using the second objective function example is performed, for example, by the power generation BG planning unit 555. Here, the aim is to maximize profits in the power generation BG3. Then, maximization of the following objective function F2 is considered.

Objective function F2
= "Electricity sales revenue from market trading system 2 (JEPX) (= market trading volume x market trading price)"
+ "Relative electricity sales revenue"
- "Demand adjustment cost (between BGs) (= demand BG adjustment unit price x demand adjustment amount)"
- "Power generation cost (= power generation BG unit price x power generation amount)"
- "Power generation imbalance (forecast value)"

Calculations are performed to maximize the value of this objective function F2, and each parameter (market trading volume of electricity, power generation volume, demand adjustment volume, etc.) is determined.

The power generation imbalance (forecast value) (expected power generation imbalance profit/loss value) is incorporated (reflected) in the power generation BG unit price, and is handled in a merit order that takes the imbalance into account.

Next, Figure 7 is an explanatory diagram of the assessment of demand imbalance risk in an embodiment and its reflection in the demand BG procurement unit price.

First, FIG. 7(a) shows characteristic information of the DR amount α and the expected value β of the imbalance for α. This characteristic information is created based on, for example, the characteristics of the demand resource.

Figure 7 (b) shows characteristic information of the DR amount α and the demand adjustment unit price. The characteristic when imbalance is not taken into account is line L2. And the characteristic when imbalance is taken into account is line L1. Specifically, first, the imbalance unit price prediction value γ is obtained, and the characteristic of β×γ, which is the expected imbalance profit and loss value, for α is superimposed on the characteristic of the demand adjustment unit price to obtain line L1.

Figure 7(c) shows the optimal value in the planning stage. In this case, the DR amount α is shown in Figure 7(c2). Figure 7(d) shows the expected value when DR fails. In this case, the imbalance expected value β is shown in Figure 7(c2).

In this way, the assessment of demand imbalance risk can be reflected in the demand BG procurement unit price.

Next, FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing the evaluation of power generation imbalance risk and its reflection in the power output adjustment unit price in an embodiment.

First, Figure 8 (a) shows characteristic information on the forecast error risk (risk of decline) and shortfall imbalance risk (shortage of margin of increase) of renewable energy output. Note that, as shown on the left side of the graph, if the output error falls within the margin of increase, the imbalance will be zero. Also, Figure 8 (b) shows characteristic information on regulated power source output and margin of increase.

Figure 8 (c) shows the optimal values at the planning stage. In Figure 8 (c1), the electricity trading price at JEPX is higher than in the case of Figure 7 (c1), so the thermal power BG is increased by the amount indicated by the symbol S in the power generation plan, and accordingly, JEPX is increased by the amount indicated by the symbol T in the sales plan.

Figure 8(d) shows a case where the renewable energy output falls below the predicted value. In this case, as shown in Figure 8(d1) and because thermal power BG has already reached the upper limit of the possible output range in Figure 8(c1), the decrease in renewable energy output after GC cannot be accommodated by increasing thermal power BG, resulting in an imbalance indicated by the symbol U.

In this way, the shortfall imbalance risk is calculated from the margin of error determined by the output of regulated power sources and the risk of errors in the renewable energy output forecast, and is then multiplied by the imbalance cost and added to the power generation BG cost to reflect this.

Next, the processing by the information processing device 5 of the embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 9. FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing the processing by the information processing device 5 of the embodiment. Note that, in the following, with regard to processing other than the processing specific to this embodiment (e.g., the formulation of a power generation plan, a sales plan, a demand plan, a procurement plan before supply and demand adjustment, etc.), it is assumed that the same processing as in the past is performed even if no explanation is given.

First, in step S1, the renewable energy power generation prediction unit 552 predicts the amount of power generation by the renewable energy power generation resource 311 and the renewable energy power generation resource 413 based on past data, weather data, etc.

Next, in step S2, the electricity market trading unit price prediction unit 553 predicts the electricity market trading unit price and outputs the electricity market trading unit price prediction value.

Next, in step S3, the acquisition unit 551 acquires power output adjustment unit price information from the DB 511.

Next, in step S4, the acquisition unit 551 acquires power output change range information from the DB 511.

Next, in step S5, the acquisition unit 551 acquires demand adjustment unit price information from DB 511.

Next, in step S6, the acquisition unit 551 acquires demand adjustable range information from the DB 511.

Next, in step S7, the acquisition unit 551 acquires demand adjustment incentive unit price information from DB 511.

Next, in step S8, the imbalance cost prediction unit 554 predicts the power generation imbalance cost and the demand imbalance cost.

Next, in step S9, the power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the priority and adjustment amount of the power sources whose output is to be adjusted based on the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, which is the cost unit price of the output of the power source of the power generation BG3 (adjustable power source resource 312).

Next, in step S10, the demand BG planning unit 556 determines the priority and adjustment amount of the demand resources for which demand is to be adjusted based on the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, which is the cost unit price related to adjusting the demand plan and procurement plan of the demand resources (load 411, storage battery 412, etc.) of demand BG3.

Next, in step S11, the power generation BG planning unit 555 calculates the power generation imbalance profit and loss expectation value based on the risk of power generation imbalance, and reflects the power generation imbalance profit and loss expectation value in the power output adjustment unit price information (power generation BG unit price).

Next, in step S12, the demand BG planning unit 556 calculates the demand imbalance profit/loss expectation value based on the risk of demand imbalance, and reflects the demand imbalance profit/loss expectation value in the demand adjustment unit price information.

Next, in step S13, the power generation BG planning unit 555 performs calculations to maximize the values of the objective functions (F1, F2) and determines each parameter (market trading volume of electricity, power generation volume, demand adjustment volume, etc.).

Next, in step S14, the display control unit 559 causes the display unit 53 to display, for example, the power generation BG unit price of the power source of power generation BG3, the demand BG adjustment unit price of the demand resource of demand BG4, the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, the power generation imbalance profit and loss expectation value of the power source and the demand imbalance profit and loss expectation value of the demand resource, the penalty when the adjustment of the demand resource is not carried out as planned, and the profit expected to be obtained by adjusting the sales plan.

In this way, according to the information processing device 5 of this embodiment, it is possible to appropriately adjust the power supply and demand in accordance with a bilateral contract that allows the amount of power purchased and sold to be flexibly changed in the power trading between the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4. Therefore, it contributes to promoting such bilateral contracts.

In addition, by calculating the allocation of the profits gained by adjusting the sales plan to power generation BG3 and demand BG4 and sharing the profits between power generation BG3 and demand BG4, the benefits of supply and demand adjustment will accrue not only to power generation BG3 but also to demand BG4.

In addition, by calculating the amount of incentives for adjusting the demand plan and procurement plan and providing the incentives, consumers who comply with the DR can also benefit. Incentives can also be paid using the profits gained from adjusting the sales plan.

In addition, the priority order of power sources that adjust output based on the merit order of power generation BG unit prices is determined, and the priority order of demand resources that adjust demand based on the merit order of demand BG adjustment unit prices is determined. Based on these, the amount of electricity sold to the electricity trading market in the sales plan can be more appropriately determined.

In addition, by reflecting the power generation imbalance profit and loss expectation value calculated based on the risk of power generation imbalance in the power generation BG unit price, and reflecting the demand imbalance profit and loss expectation value calculated based on the risk of demand imbalance in the demand BG adjustment unit price, a simple and highly accurate objective function can be realized. In addition, it is possible to obtain calculation results that appropriately reflect the imbalance risk due to the uncertainty of renewable energy output after GC and the realization of DR.

In addition, various information regarding supply and demand adjustment (power generation BG unit price and merit order, demand BG adjustment unit price and merit order, power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value, demand imbalance profit and loss expected value, penalties when demand resource adjustment is not carried out as planned, profit expected to be gained by adjusting the sales plan, etc.) can be displayed to provide material for the user's consideration.

The program executed by the information processing device 5 of this embodiment may be provided by being recorded in an installable or executable file format on a computer-readable recording medium such as a CD-ROM, a flexible disk (FD), a CD-R, or a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk).

The program may also be configured to be stored on a computer connected to a network such as the Internet and provided by being downloaded via the network. The program may also be configured to be provided or distributed via a network such as the Internet.

The program may also be provided in advance in a ROM or the like.

Although several embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These novel embodiments can be embodied in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the gist of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and gist of the invention, and are included in the scope of the invention and its equivalents described in the claims.

For example, in the above embodiment, the case where profits are maximized is described as an example of a case where a predetermined condition regarding profits is satisfied, but this is not limited to this. Other conditions may also be satisfied, such as when profits are equal to or greater than a predetermined amount.

The power system S may also include an aggregator that adjusts the supply and demand balance of the power grid. In that case, for example, the aggregator adjusts the supply and demand balance of the power grid in a large unit that combines multiple power generation BG3 and multiple demand BG4.

Furthermore, it is not necessary to perform all of the processes in the above-described embodiment. For example, the incentive calculation process may be treated as optional and not be performed.

The objective function may reflect all monetary inflows and outflows, or it may only deal with the change in monetary inflows and outflows from a baseline situation.

1...Grid operator, 2...Market trading system, 3...Power generation BG, 4...Demand BG, 5...Information processing device, 9...Power transmission and distribution company, 31...Power generation company, 41...Consumer, 51...Memory unit, 52...Input unit, 53...Display unit, 54...Communication unit, 55...Processing unit, 311...Renewable energy power generation resource, 312...Adjustable power source resource, 411...Load, 412...Storage battery, 413...Renewable energy power generation resource, 551...Acquisition unit, 552...Renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit, 553...Power market trading unit price prediction unit, 554...Imbalance unit price prediction unit, 555...Power generation BG planning unit, 556...Demand BG planning unit, 557...Incentive calculation unit, 558...Profit allocation calculation unit, 559...Display control unit, S...Power system

Claims (8)

A Power Generation BG (Balancing Group) Planning Department that formulates power generation plans and sales plans for the Power Generation BG;
a demand BG planning unit that formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for a demand BG that has a bilateral contract for power trading with the power generation BG;
an electricity market trading unit price prediction unit that predicts an electricity market trading unit price, which is a unit price of electricity trading in an electricity trading market, and outputs an electricity market trading unit price prediction value; and the power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of electricity sold to the electricity trading market and the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the electricity market trading unit price prediction value,
The demand BG planning unit is an electric power supply and demand adjustment device that adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with adjustments to the amount of electric power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan. The power supply and demand adjustment device according to claim 1, further comprising a profit allocation calculation unit that calculates an allocation of the profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan to the power generation BG and the demand BG. The power supply and demand adjustment device according to claim 1, further comprising an incentive calculation unit that calculates an incentive amount for the adjustment of the demand plan and the procurement plan by the demand BG planning unit. The power generation BG planning unit
determining a priority order of the power sources for adjusting the output based on a merit order of a power generation BG unit price, which is a cost unit price of the output of the power source of the power generation BG;
The demand BG planning unit
determining a priority order of the demand resources for which demand is adjusted based on a merit order of a demand BG adjustment unit price, which is a cost unit price related to the adjustment of the demand plan and the procurement plan of the demand resources of the demand BG;
The power generation BG planning unit
The power supply and demand adjustment device according to claim 1 , further comprising: a power sales amount to the power trading market in the sales plan determined based on a priority of the power source that adjusts output and a priority of the demand resource that adjusts demand. The power generation BG planning unit
predicting a risk of power generation imbalance due to fluctuations in the output of the power source of the power generation BG after the gate of the electricity trading market is closed, calculating an expected value of profit and loss based on the risk of the power generation imbalance as a power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflecting the power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value in the power generation BG unit price;
The demand BG planning unit
5. The power supply and demand adjustment device according to claim 4, which predicts a risk of demand imbalance due to adjustment of the demand resource in the demand plan not being carried out as planned after the gate is closed, calculates an expected value of profit and loss based on the risk of the demand imbalance as a demand imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflects the demand imbalance profit and loss expected value in the demand BG adjustment unit price. The power supply and demand adjustment device according to claim 5, further comprising a display control unit that causes a display unit to display the power generation BG unit price, the demand BG adjustment unit price, the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, the power generation imbalance profit and loss expectation value of the power source, the demand imbalance profit and loss expectation value of the demand resource, a penalty in the case where the adjustment of the demand resource is not performed as planned, and the profit expected to be obtained by adjusting the sales plan. a power generation BG planning step in which a power generation BG planning unit formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan for the power generation BG;
a demand BG planning step in which a demand BG planning unit formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for a demand BG that has a bilateral contract for power trading with the power generation BG;
an electricity market trading unit price prediction step in which an electricity market trading unit price prediction unit predicts an electricity market trading unit price, which is a unit price of electricity trading in the electricity trading market, and outputs an electricity market trading unit price prediction value;
In the power generation BG planning step, the power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of power sold to the power trading market and the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price forecast value;
An electricity supply and demand adjustment method, in which , in the demand BG planning step, the demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with an adjustment of the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan.
On the computer,
a power generation BG planning step of formulating a power generation plan and a sales plan for the power generation BG;
a demand BG planning step of formulating a demand plan and a procurement plan for a demand BG that has a bilateral contract for power trading with the power generation BG;
An electricity market trading unit price prediction step of predicting an electricity market trading unit price, which is a unit price of electricity trading in an electricity trading market, and outputting an electricity market trading unit price prediction value,
The power generation BG planning step adjusts an amount of power sold to the power trading market and an amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price forecast value;
The demand BG planning step is a program that adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with an adjustment to the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan.

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