JPH0423318B2 - - Google Patents

Description

[Detailed Description of the Invention] [Industrial Application Field] The present invention collects transit information based on basic information on the operation plan of route buses, predicts the arrival time of the bus, and provides a guide display device on the route. The present invention relates to a route bus operation management device that displays service intervals.

[Prior Art] Fig. 6 shows a conventional specific motor vehicle operation management control system disclosed in, for example, Japanese Patent Publication No. 11878/1983.
In the figure, 61 is a central operation control device, 62a, 6
2b, 62c are ground receivers, 63a, 63b, 6
3c is the antenna of these 62a, 62b, 62c,
64a, 64b, 64c are lines connecting the central operation control device 61 and the ground receivers 62a, 62b, 62c, 65a, 65b, 65c are specific automobiles, and 66a, 66b, 66c are specific automobiles 65.
On-vehicle wireless transmitter mounted on a, 65b, 65c,
67a, 67b, 67c are the on-vehicle radio transmitters 6
On-vehicle antennas 6a, 66b, 66c, 68 the running direction, 69 the specific vehicles 65a, 65b, 6
This is the driving route of 5c.

Next, the operation will be explained. Since the ground receivers 62a, 62b, 62c are arranged along the path 69, the ground receivers 62a, 62b, 62
The antennas 63a, 63b, and 63c of the antennas c catch the radio waves transmitted by the automobiles 65a, 65b, and 65c. Transmitted radio waves from cars 65a, 65b, 65c are received when the cars pass through the installation positions of antennas 63a, 63b, 63c, and are sent from ground receivers 62c, 62b, 62c to central operation control device 61 via lines 64a, 64b. , 64c.

For example, when the car 65a passes the installation position of the antenna 63a, the ground receiver 62a sends information indicating that the car 65a has passed to the central operation control device 61. This central operation control device 61 stores the average traveling time (the average value of the time required for the automobile to travel once on a predetermined route) and the average traveling speed of the automobile 65a on the traveling route 69, and receives information from the ground. Based on the passing information from the vehicle 62a, the estimated time of arrival of the vehicle 65a at the ground receiver 62b is calculated as follows, taking into consideration the time at the time of passing, the average travel time, and variations in travel speed.

(Car passing time at ground receiver 62a + ground receiver 62b
It is calculated as the distance between and 62a/the past average traveling speed of cars on that route...(600).

Similarly, the estimated time of arrival at the next receiver 62c is calculated, making it possible to track the arrival time of the vehicle on its route. In addition, the ground receivers 62a, 6
2b and 62c are provided in the approach guidance display device. In addition, this approach guidance display device is equipped with an approach guidance display panel and a distance display panel, and by detecting that a route bus has passed one stop ahead, it can display "Coming soon". ,
Displays the elapsed time since the vehicle in front passed.

In FIG. 6, for example, the ground receiver 6 at the point
A specific vehicle 65a passes in front of the roadside machine incorporating 2a.
When the vehicle passes by, vehicle information (vehicle number, etc.) is transmitted to the ground receiver 62a via the antenna 63a by the on-vehicle radio 66a and the on-vehicle antenna 67a. This information is sent to the central processing unit 61 via the circuit 64a for processing.

As a result, information about the arrival of the automobile 65a is transmitted from the central processing unit 61 via the line 64b to the roadside device incorporating the ground receiver 62b at the next point B on the travel route 69. Based on this information, "Coming soon" is displayed.

Similarly, the bus information of vehicles that have already traveled at point B is stored in the central processing unit 61, so it is sent via the line 64b to the roadside device incorporating the terrestrial radio device 62b. I will send you information about what happened,
For example, it can display that the vehicle in front of you passed 5 minutes ago.

[Problem that the invention seeks to solve]

The conventional specific vehicle operation control system is configured as described above, and when calculating the required time for a unit section, for example, the unit section between the ground receivers 62a and 62b, the past average traveling speed of the vehicle on that route is calculated. By using (at the time of one rotation of the path),
If the traffic is congested at certain times of the day, or if the area is in a busy area,
The average traveling speed of the automobile 65a on that route is not necessarily close to the traveling speed of that unit section,
The required time relationship is as shown below.

Distance between ground receivers 62b and 62a/Past average traveling speed of the vehicle on that route ≠ Distance between ground receivers 62b and 62a/travel speed for the unit section Therefore, there is a large error from the actual travel time. There were some drawbacks that occurred. In addition, even when using the past average traveling speed of cars 65a, 65b, and 65c in that section, it is important to know how far back in time the travel time required (hereinafter referred to as the actual value) is to be used, and on what route with what service interval. Even if there is a difference in the traveling speed of the section, the estimated arrival time of the unit section can be predicted and the operation status can be displayed quickly.
The conventional prediction calculation formula (600) is not a versatile prediction calculation formula that can be applied under any conditions due to the above-mentioned ambiguities, and therefore has limited practicality. There was a problem that the accuracy of prediction could not be expected. In addition, because the conventional approach guidance display device uses the above-mentioned display method, there is no specificity of the time of "soon", that is, it is unclear whether the next bus will arrive in one minute or three minutes, and it is unclear whether the next bus will arrive in 1 minute or 3 minutes. The prediction was based on the time elapsed since the vehicle in front of the vehicle had passed, and there were problems in that the passenger had to make his or her own judgment based on the timetable of the stop, the current time, and the time of the vehicle in front of him.

This invention was made in order to solve the above-mentioned problems, and uses a central processing unit to store the planned value of the travel time required for a unit section on the route of a route bus and the actual value of the vehicles that have already traveled. By applying a series of predictive calculation formulas based on these planned values and actual values, the required time for a unit section can be consistently predicted for any traffic flow and any route with any service interval. A device that can calculate the accurate arrival time of a target vehicle at a specific point on its route, track and manage the operating status of buses, and display detailed predicted values of the current operating intervals of route buses. The purpose is to obtain.

[Means for solving problems]

The route bus operation management device according to the present invention stores the actual value of the required travel time that passed through a unit section in the past in the central processing unit, extracts the actual value to be used as necessary, and The data is first processed into data (delay coefficient) that allows relative comparison of the degree of delay for each route, and then weighted according to whether the actual value is new or old, and these values are used to calculate the existing value for each unit section. The central processing unit calculates the moving average value of traveling vehicles and sample values of vehicles to be predicted, and totals the predicted travel time for each unit section.
In addition, based on the number of buses that have passed in the past and the predicted travel time calculated by the central processing unit, the number of buses that are predicted to pass the roadside machine within the set time and the number of buses that have passed the roadside machine in the past are calculated. The current and future bus service intervals are calculated and displayed based on the number of buses within a set time.

[Effect]

In calculating the estimated arrival time in this invention, the basic information of the operation plan and the standard operation time are stored in the storage unit of the central processing unit in advance, and the actual values of the required time and time of the vehicles that have already traveled (before the prediction target vehicle) are stored in advance. Collect and
This stored information is stored in the storage unit, and this stored information is extracted, focusing on the latest actual value that is considered to best reflect the traffic situation at that time.
By performing predictive calculations using primarily processed data, it can be applied to routes with any service interval, improving prediction accuracy and making it possible to track bus operation status and calculate arrival times more accurately. do.

Furthermore, the method of calculating the bus intervals in this invention accurately displays on the approach guidance display device the bus service intervals calculated based on the actual number of buses passing within the past set time and the predicted number of buses passing within the future set time. This will improve the guidance service for passengers waiting for the bus.

〔Example〕

An embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. In FIG. 1, 31 is a central processing unit, 32
a, 32b, and 32c are points A to C, respectively.
Terrestrial radio installed on the roadside, 63a, 63
b, 63c are terrestrial radio devices 32a, 32b, 32c
, 64a, 64b, 64c are lines connecting the central processing unit 31 and terrestrial radios 32a, 32b, 32c, 35a, 35b, 35c are route buses, 36a, 36b, 36c are route buses 35
a, 35b, 35c on-board radio, 67a, 67
b, 67c are on-board radios 36a, 36b, 36c
antenna, 68 is the route bus 35a, 35b, 3
The traveling direction of 5c, 69 is the route bus 35a, 35
This is the traveling route of cars b and 35c.

FIG. 2 shows the detailed configuration of the central processing unit 31. In the same figure, 40 is mainly composed of a microprocessor, and controls reading and writing of data to storage units 41 to 49, and controls data writing to storage units 41 to 49.
It reads necessary data out of the data stored in 49, performs calculation processing, and writes the results to the storage section. Reference numeral 41 denotes a basic information storage section on the operation plan provided for each point and each route, and this operation plan basic information storage section 41 stores vehicle numbers, passing times, timetable numbers, etc. Reference numeral 42 indicates a standard operation time storage section provided for each route and route; 43 indicates a passage information storage section for storing the vehicle number, passing time, and timetable number of passing buses; 44 indicates a storage section provided for each route and location. 45 is an actual operation interval storage section provided for each route; 46 is a storage section for delay coefficients in which the actual operation time is normalized by the standard operation time; 47 is a storage section for the actual operation time required for actual operation; A weighting storage unit, 48 a sample value storage unit that stores moving average values (sample values) of vehicles that have already traveled in a unit section, 49 a parameter storage unit that stores parameters used when calculating weighting and sample values, and 50 a A display output unit that outputs the vehicle number, route, timetable number, arrival time or departure time, and service interval that are the results of calculations and judgments made by the processing unit 40, and displays a display device (not shown) for the operation manager and a terminal or main It drives the display device etc. to the bus stop.

FIG. 3 shows a roadside machine 320, 321 is a ground radio built into the roadside machine 320, 322 is an approach guidance display device that displays the operation interval determined based on the above-mentioned actual values and predicted values, and 323 is an approach guidance display device. The board surface of the guide display device 322, 324 is a display element.

Next, the operation will be explained. Route bus 35a,
Onboard radios 36a, 36 are installed on 35b, 35c.
The ground radios 32a, 32b, 32c for transmitting and receiving bus information with the on-board radios 36a, 36b, 36c are arranged as described above on the ground of the traveling route 69, and the central processing unit is installed in the business office etc. 31, the central processing unit 31 connects to the terrestrial radios 32a, 32b, 3 via lines 64a, 64b, 64c.
Bus passage information is collected from bus passage information 2c, processed by the processing unit 40 in FIG. 2, and stored in the passage information storage unit 43.
In other words, passing information for each bus passing through points A, B, and C (by vehicle number, by point, by timetable number)
is stored in the passage information storage unit in contrast with the operation plan basic information storage unit 41 shown in FIG. Further, necessary data is read out of the data stored in the passage information storage section 43, and the processing section 40 performs calculation processing, and the result is stored in the actual travel time storage section 44.

In FIG. 1, the device determines when the bus 35a will arrive at point B after passing point A in the following manner. In order to predict the time required to travel between points A and B, vehicles that have already passed point B (the car in front, the car in front,
Calculation is performed using the processed relatively new actual values of the previous car, etc.) and the ``delay coefficient'', ``weighting'', and ``moving average value = sample value'' defined below. .

Normally, the standard travel time between points for route buses is determined in advance, and varies depending on the time of operation and the route.

Therefore, since the actual value of vehicles that have already traveled between points A and B on a route bus varies depending on the time of operation and the route, it is necessary to use a value that is compared with some reference value.
In this device, this standardized required time is defined as a delay coefficient D as follows.

Di=r _i /Ts (i=0,-1,-2,...) ...(400) However, r _i : Actual operation time Ts: Standard operation time In Figure 1, the vehicle is already running. Front car 35b, front car 3
5c, Actual travel time for the car before the previous one (not shown)
r ₀ , r _-1 and r _-2 are read from the actual operation required time storage section 44 shown in FIG.
Ts is read from the standard operation required time storage section 42,
As a result of calculation processing using both values in the processing unit 40,
D ₀ = r ₀ /Ts, D _-1 = r _-1 /Ts, and D _-2 = r _-2 /Ts are stored in the delay coefficient storage unit 46 as delay coefficients for each vehicle that has already traveled. In the conventional method, when predicting the travel time for a unit section (corresponding to points A-B and B-C in Figure 1), the average value of past actual values is simply used, resulting in an unclear expression. ing.

In the present invention, the target time is set by paying attention to which past performance value should be used and how far back in time it should be used. In other words, route buses operate at different intervals depending on the route and section, for example, some run every 3 minutes, others every 30 minutes, and the number of actual values used, that is, the number of samples. Occurs to some extent. Therefore, actual values should be used depending on the characteristics of the route and section. Furthermore, since road traffic changes from moment to moment, it is considered that the use of old performance values that go back too far into the past will not necessarily match current values. In other words, since the latest actual value most reflects the traffic situation at that time, in the present invention, when extracting the actual value by limiting the time period,
The actual values are weighted. Here, the newer the actual value is, the larger it is, and the older the actual value is, the smaller it is. This weight Wi is defined as a function of the service interval as follows.

Wi=a+S _i −S _i-1 /b (maximum W _i =1.0) ...(401) a≦W _i ≦1, i=0 , i=-1 , i
=-2,... (Vehicle in front) (Vehicle in front) (Vehicle in front) However, a: Weight correction coefficient b: Upper limit set value for service interval s: Arrival time of route bus at point A Here, S ₀ , S _-1 is the vehicle in front of 35 at point A in Figure 1.
b, the arrival time of the car 35c in front, and a, b are parameters.

a is S ₀ =S ₋₁ , that is, the weight of the arriving car when the car in front and the car in front arrive at the same time in Dango operation, and b is the upper limit set value of the travel interval at which the data of the car in front is taken in. For example, if b=30 (minutes), when a=1/3 and S ₀ −S ₋₁ ≧20 (minutes), the weight of the vehicle in front 35b becomes W ₀ =1.

As for weighting, when the service interval is short, the number of samples is large and the weight is distributed, and when the service interval is long, the number of samples is small, and the weight becomes larger for the actual value that passed immediately before the target vehicle. The weighting for each vehicle that has already traveled can be calculated using equation (401), and the weighting thus determined is stored in the weighting storage section 47. Furthermore, even if the actual values between points A and B occur during the same time period, there are variations due to changes in the number of passengers, waiting at traffic lights, and other traffic conditions. Therefore, in the present invention, the moving average value ( Hereinafter referred to as sample values), the predicted arrival time is calculated.

Here, the sample values of the vehicle in front 35b and the vehicle in front 35c are defined as follows.

l ₀ = W ₀ D ₀ + (1-W ₀ ) l _-1 ...(402a) l _-1 = W _-1 D _-1 + (1-W _-1 ) l _-2 ... (402b) However, l ₀ : Sample value of the car 35b in front l _-1 : Sample value of the car 35c two days ahead l _- B: Sample value of the car two days ahead W ₀ , W _-1 : Weight of the car in front and the car two in front D ₀ , D _{- 1} : Delay coefficients for the vehicle in front and the vehicle in front The sample values of the vehicles that have already traveled are read out from the weighting storage unit 47 in FIG.
0, calculations are performed using equations (402a) and (402b), and the results are stored in the sample value storage section 48.

The prediction calculation of the arrival time of the prediction target vehicle at point B is performed using the sample value l of the prediction target vehicle derived from the sample values of the vehicle in front and the vehicle in front and the passing time at point A of the vehicle in front and the vehicle in front of the vehicle. ₁ (predicted value).

FIG. 4 is a graph showing the situation of sample value vs. section entry time, where the section entry time means the time when the prediction target vehicle 35a of FIG. The time the vehicle to be predicted enters the section,
The vertical axis shows sample values of vehicles that have already traveled and vehicles to be predicted. From FIG. 3, the sample value l ₁ of the prediction target vehicle is derived as follows.

l ₁ −l ₀ /S ₁ −S ₀ =K ₁・l ₀ −l ₋₁ /S ₀ −S ₋₁ , that is, l ₁ =l ₀ +K ₁・l ₀ −l ₋₁ /S ₀ −S _{− 1}・(S ₁ −S ₀ )……(403
) However, K ₁ : Slope of straight line Here, the value of K ₁ is the slope of the straight line, but here it is approximated by the slope of a quadratic curve, which is easy to calculate. Therefore, K ₁ becomes:

When S _i <S ₀ +C, K ₁ =1−S _i −S ₀ /2C (i=1, 2, 3,...) ...(404a) When S _i ≥S ₀ +C, K ₀ = 0.5 (S _i = S ₀ + C) ...(404b) However, C: Prediction upper limit setting value The travel time (predicted value) of the prediction target vehicle 35a between points A and B is calculated based on the sample value _l1 , A-
It is multiplied by the standard travel time Ts between B and B.

The time required to travel between points A and B = l ₁ ×Ts.

Therefore, since the time when the prediction target vehicle 35a passes point B is the time when it passes point A plus the time required to travel between points A and B, the time when it passes point B = S ₁ +
l ₁ ×Ts ……(405). Therefore, in order to predict the passing time of the prediction target vehicle 35a at point B, the sample values of the previously traveled vehicles shown in FIG. Called from the information storage section 43, parameter storage section 49
Read parameter C from 403 formula and 404a
The processing unit 40 calculates and processes the formula and 404b formula, and stores the sample value of the prediction target vehicle 35a in the sample value storage unit 48.
l ₁ is stored, and the processing unit 40 calculates and processes the formula 405 to derive the passing time of the prediction target vehicle. In a similar manner, the passing time of the prediction target vehicle at point C can also be determined by calculating and summing the required travel time for each unit section AB and BC.

Therefore, the passing time at points beyond point C, which are not shown in FIG. Can calculate. Processing section 40 shown in FIG.
Then, if the result of calculating the predicted passing time of the vehicle to be predicted is read out from the operation plan basic information storage section 41, the actual value is read out from the passing information storage section 43 and compared, and outputted to the display output section 50, the route The planned passing time, actual value, and predicted time of each point along the travel route of the buses 35a to 35c can be displayed.

As a result, the operating status of each bus can be displayed for each point on the CTR screen of a business office, etc., so tracking management is possible, and the central processing unit 3
Through the lines 64a, 64b, and 64c, the service interval can be displayed on an approach guidance display device on the route other than the business office.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the principle of calculating the service interval of each bus. The vertical axis represents time (unit: minutes),
The upper half is the past actual number of vehicles (the number of vehicles that passed in front of the guidance display device), and the lower half is the predicted future number of vehicles (the number of vehicles predicted to pass in front of the guidance display device).
The position of the approach guidance display device is considered to be at the time 0 minute position on the horizontal axis, and let us consider, for example, a bus passing point A. In the same figure,
B _-1 , B _-2 , ... B _-o are buses that passed in front of this approach guidance display device in the past 15 minutes, and B ₁ , B ₂ , ...,
Bm indicates a bus that is predicted to pass in front of the approach guidance display device in the future 15 minutes. When the bus is in the positional relationship shown in FIG. 5 on the position-time axis, the service interval t (minutes) of the bus passing in front of the approach guidance display device is expressed as follows.

t=30/n+m...(200) However, n: Number of buses that have passed in the past 15 minutes m: Number of buses that are predicted to pass in the future 15 minutes The service interval information calculated by formula (200) is:
The information is transmitted from the central processing unit 31 of the route bus operation management device shown in FIG. 1 to the approach guidance display device 322 built into the roadside vehicle 32a via the line 64a.
As a result, the operating interval t is displayed on the board 323. As a result, route buses belonging to many routes,
When heading to the same destination, for example the bus terminal,
When passing in front of each roadside aircraft 32a, 32b, 32c at short service intervals, the service intervals can be displayed all at once, rather than displaying the scheduled departure time or arrival time for each route. It is convenient for customers.

In addition, the central processing unit 31
The transit status of the route bus passing in front of b, 32c,
Since the information is collected from the roadside devices 32a, 32b, and 32c using polling signals with a certain period, (200)
If the operation interval data calculated by the formula is transmitted to the roadside aircraft 32a, 32b, 32c via the lines 64a, 64b, 64c at a fixed period (for example, 1 minute), the operation interval displayed on the approach guidance display device 322 is The service interval that best reflects the running status of route buses is displayed, which is constantly updated and matches traffic conditions.

In addition, in the above example, when deriving the sample value (predicted value) of the prediction target vehicle using equation (403), the slope K ₁ of the straight line is approximated by a quadratic curve and the calculation process is performed ( Although formulas 404a) and (404b) are set, the same effect as in the above embodiment can be obtained even if the approximation is performed using other easy-to-calculate functions.

Further, in the above embodiment, a seven-segment display element is used as the display element 324, but a display element such as an LED may be used as the display element 324.

In addition, in the above embodiment, when calculating the service interval,
We have explained how to calculate the number of vehicles passing in a total of 30 minutes using the past 15 minutes' actual value and the future 15 minutes' predicted value. By limiting the target time (past and future) so as to display the above, the same effect as in the above embodiment can be obtained.

〔Effect of the invention〕

As described above, according to the present invention, the operation plan value and the actual value are stored in the storage unit of the central processing unit, and the arrival time can be calculated by the processing unit based on the latest actual value by limiting the time period. Since it is configured as follows, it can be applied to routes with any operating interval, and highly accurate prediction results can be obtained. As a result, the estimated time of arrival on the travel route is accurately displayed on the display device at the business office, allowing the operation manager to grasp the bus operating status while being at the business office. In addition, since the guidance display for driving intervals is calculated by taking into consideration both future values based on predictions and past actual values, the approach guidance display device for sections where there are many buses can display This improves the accuracy of departure schedules for each route, especially when route buses belonging to multiple routes are heading to the same destination, such as a bus terminal, and pass in front of the on-road bus at short intervals. Rather than displaying the time or estimated arrival time, it is more convenient for passengers to display the service intervals all at once.

[Brief explanation of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block connection diagram of a route bus operation control device according to an embodiment of the present invention, FIG. 2 is a block connection diagram of a central processing unit, and FIG. 3 is a front view of an approach guidance display device for a roadside vehicle. Figure 4 shows sample values for calculating the predicted time of the target vehicle.
FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing the principle of calculation of driving intervals, and FIG. 6 is a block connection diagram of a conventional operation management control device for a specific vehicle. 31 is a central processing unit, 32a, 32b, 32c
35a, 35b, 35c are route buses,
36a, 36b, 36c are on-board radios, 40 is a processing unit, 41 is an operation plan basic information storage unit, 42 is a standard operation time storage unit, 43 is a passage information storage unit,
44 is an actual travel time storage section, 45 is an actual travel interval storage section, 46 is a delay coefficient storage section, 47 is a weighting storage section, 48 is a sample value storage section, 49 is a parameter storage section, and 50 is a display output section. , 63a, 63
b, 63c are road antennas, 67a, 67b, 6
7c is an on-vehicle antenna, 69 is a travel route, 320 is a roadside device, 321 is a roadside radio, 322 is an approach guidance display device, and 323 is a board. Note that the same reference numerals in the figures indicate the same or equivalent parts.

Claims (1)

[Claims] 1 Consists of an on-board radio installed on a route bus, a ground radio that sends and receives information to and from the on-board radio, and a central processing unit installed at a business office, etc. In a route bus operation management device that collects bus passing information in the central processing unit and calculates the time to arrive at a specific point, at the latest passing time in front of the terrestrial radio device at which the predicted vehicle has arrived, A processing unit of a central processing unit that calculates the arrival time by adding the total predicted travel time for each unit section into which the untraveled section is divided, basic information of the operation plan, passing information, and the actual operation of the unit section. It is equipped with a storage unit that stores the travel time, standard travel time, and actual travel interval, and limits the target time of the past travel time to be used for prediction, and calculates the actual travel time from the standard travel time. Using the delay coefficient normalized by hours and minutes and the weighting value for the actual travel time, the moving average value of a plurality of vehicles that have already passed through the unit section before the prediction target vehicle is processed. further limit the entry time of each unit section of the prediction target vehicle and the already running vehicle and the prediction target time, and calculate a sample of each unit section of the prediction target vehicle from the calculated moving average value. The processing unit calculates the predicted travel time for each unit section as the product of the predicted sample value and the standard operation travel time, and calculates the predicted travel time for each unit section in the untraveled section in the same way. In addition to calculating the arrival time at a specific point and tracking the operating status of the bus,
An approach guidance display device is installed on a roadside vehicle equipped with a terrestrial radio on the travel route, and displays the actual number of vehicles that have passed in front of the roadway vehicle during a certain period of time in the past and during a certain period of time in the future, with the current time as the border. Calculate the predicted number of vehicles that are expected to pass through based on the prediction calculation,
The operation interval is calculated every fixed period from the total of each actual number of vehicles and predicted number of vehicles and the total of each fixed time, and the calculation result is displayed on the approach guidance display device via a line. Characteristic route bus operation management device.