JPH0477958B2 - - Google Patents

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION This invention collects transit information based on the basic information of route bus operation plans, predicts the arrival time of the bus, and displays the bus on the roadside equipment on the route and on the information display at the terminal. This invention relates to a route bus operation management method that displays the arrival time or departure time of a bus.

FIG. 6 shows a conventional specific motor vehicle operation management control system disclosed in, for example, Japanese Patent Publication No. 11878/1983.
In the figure, 61 is a central operation control device, 62a to 6
2c is the ground receiver, 63a to 63c are this 62a
62c are antennas, 64a to 64c are lines connecting the central operation control device 61 and the ground receivers 62a to 62c, 65a to 65c are specific automobiles,
66a to 66c are on-vehicle transmitters mounted on the specified vehicles 65a to 65c, 67a to 67c are on-vehicle antennas of the on-vehicle radio transmitters 66a to 66c, 68 is the traveling direction, and 69 is the specified vehicle 65a to 65c.
This is the driving route.

FIG. 7 shows, for example, the approach guidance display device shown in research report P44-45, published by Kobunsha, 33rd Bus Technical Committee National Conference.

In the figure, 70 is a roadside device installed on the travel path, 71 is an approach guidance display device built into the roadway device 70, 711 is an approach guidance display panel surface of the approach guidance display device that provides bus approach guidance, and 712 is a roadside device installed on the roadway. This is the distance display panel showing the elapsed time after passing.

Next, the operation will be explained. Conventionally, bus arrival times have been predicted as shown in FIG. Specific automobiles 65a~ traveling along the travel route 69
On-vehicle radio transmitters 66a to 66c are mounted on 65c, and antennas 67a to 67b are provided, respectively. Also, along the path 69, the ground receiver 6
2a to 62c are arranged, and the ground receiver 62a
The antennas 63a to 63c of 62c catch the radio waves transmitted from the automobiles 65a to 65c. car 6
Transmission radio waves from 5a to 65c are transmitted from antennas 63a to 63a.
Information about the cars 65a to 65c is received when a car passes through the installation position of the car 63c, and the information about the cars 65a to 65c is sent to the central traffic control device 61 from the ground receivers 62a to 62c.
The data are transmitted via lines 64a to 64c.

For example, when the car 65a passes the installation position of the antenna 63a, the ground receiver 62a sends information indicating that the car 65a has passed to the central operation control device 61. This central operation control device 61 stores the average traveling time of the automobile 65a on the route 69 (the average value of the time required for the automobile to travel once on a predetermined route) and the average traveling speed, and , based on the passing information from the ground receiver 62a, the vehicle 6
The estimated arrival time of 5a to the ground receiver 62b is calculated as follows.

Vehicle passing time at ground receiver 62a + ground receiver 62
Distance between b and 62a/Past average traveling speed of the car on that route... Using the same formula (600), calculate the estimated arrival time to the next receiver 62c, and calculate the arrival time of the car on the route, etc. It allows for tracking.

The roadside aircraft 70 in FIG. 7 is a block diagram of a conventional approach guidance display device 71, and the ground receiver 6 in FIG.
2a to 62c are incorporated.

The approach guide display device 71 has an approach guide display panel 711 and a distance display panel 712, and by detecting that the route bus has passed one stop before, it displays "Coming soon". . The distance between vehicles also indicates the time elapsed since the vehicle in front passed.

In FIG. 6, for example, a specific vehicle 65
When the vehicle a passes by, vehicle information (vehicle number, etc.) is transmitted by the on-vehicle radio 66a and the on-vehicle antenna 67a to the ground receiver 62a via the antenna 63a. This information is sent to the central processing unit 61 via the line 64a and processed.

As a result, information about the arrival of the automobile 65a is transmitted from the central processing unit 61 via the line 64b to the roadside device incorporating the ground receiver 62b at the next point B on the travel route 69. Based on this information, the message ``Coming soon'' is displayed.

Similarly, the bus information of vehicles that have already traveled at point B is stored in the central processing unit 61, so via the line 64b, a roadside device incorporating a terrestrial radio device 62b is informed of how many minutes have passed since the previous vehicle passed. For example, as shown in FIG. 7, it is possible to display that the vehicle in front of you passed 5 minutes ago.

[Problem that the invention seeks to solve]

The conventional specific vehicle operation control system is configured as described above, and when calculating the required time for a unit section (for example, between the ground receivers 62a and 62b), the past average traveling speed of the vehicle on that route (the Route 1
(circular time) is used, so if the unit section is a traffic-congested or congested section depending on the time of day, the average traveling speed of the automobile 65a on that route will not necessarily be close to the traveling speed of the unit section. Therefore, the relationship between the required time as shown below is as follows: Distance between ground receivers 62b and 62a/Past average traveling speed of the car on that route ≠ Distance between ground receivers 62b and 62a/Traveling speed for the unit section, and the actual The disadvantage was that there was a large error in the travel time required. In addition, 6 cars in that section
Even when using the past average travel speed of 5a to 65c, it is important to know how far back in time the required travel time (hereinafter referred to as the actual value) is to be used, and what service interval the route has. Even if there are variations in travel speed, it is necessary to quickly and accurately predict the estimated arrival time of the unit section and display the operation status.
Due to the above-mentioned uncertainties, the formula is not a general-purpose predictive calculation formula that can be applied under any conditions, so there are problems in that it is not practical and prediction accuracy cannot be expected.

In addition, because the conventional approach guidance display device uses the above-mentioned display method, there is no specificity of the time of "soon"; in other words, it is unclear whether the bus will arrive in 1 minute or 8 minutes, and it is difficult to predict the arrival of the next bus. This method has the disadvantage that it is determined based on the time elapsed since the vehicle in front of the vehicle passed, and the passenger must make the decision based on the timetable of the stop, the current time, and the time of the vehicle in front of him.

This invention was made in order to solve the above-mentioned problems, and uses a central processing unit to store the planned value of the travel time required for a unit section on the route of a route bus and the actual value of the vehicles that have already traveled. By applying a series of prediction calculation formulas, it is possible to consistently predict the time required for a unit section so that it can be applied to any kind of traffic flow and route with any service interval. In addition to calculating the accurate arrival time of the predicted vehicle at a specific point on the route, it is also used to track and manage the operating status of buses and to use the information display devices at bus terminals of route buses and the information display devices of roadside vehicles on the route. Route bus operation management in which the scheduled departure time or scheduled arrival time is displayed as "around" at locations relatively far away from the guidance display and the guidance display device, and the confirmed time is displayed at nearby locations. The purpose is to obtain a method.

[Means for solving problems]

The route bus operation management method for calculating the estimated arrival time at a specific point according to the present invention stores the actual values of buses that have passed through a unit section in the past in a central processing unit, and then stores the actual values of buses that have passed through a unit section in the past, Settings, extracting the actual values, processing them into data (delay coefficient) that allows relative comparison of the degree of delay for each bus route,
In addition, weighting is performed according to the newness of the actual value (the newer the value, the older the value is less), and these values are used to calculate the moving average value (sample value) of the vehicles that have already traveled for each unit section and the vehicle to be predicted. The central processing unit calculates sample values of , accumulates the estimated required time for each unit section, and uses the calculated estimated required time to calculate information on bus terminal guidance displays and on-road vehicles along the travel route. The display device may display the scheduled departure time or scheduled arrival time at a location relatively far away from the information display and the guidance display.
around the time, and the confirmed time is displayed in the vicinity.

[Effect]

In calculating the estimated arrival time in this invention, the basic information of the operation plan and the standard operation time are stored in advance in the storage unit of the central processing unit, and the actual values of the required time of the vehicles that have already traveled (before the target vehicle for prediction) are calculated. Data is collected, stored in the storage unit, extracted from this stored information, and processed primarily by focusing on the latest actual values that are considered to best reflect the traffic conditions at that time. By modifying the prediction calculation using , it can be applied to routes with any service interval, improving the prediction accuracy and making the tracking of bus operation status and calculation of arrival time more accurate. . Therefore, the guidance service for passengers waiting for the bus is improved, bus operation according to the timetable is ensured, and it is possible to encourage the number of passengers.

[Example] Hereinafter, an example of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In FIG. 1, reference numeral 22 indicates the on-road device shown in FIG. 2, and 221 indicates a ground radio device 222 built into the on-road device 22, which displays a guidance display that displays the scheduled arrival time or scheduled departure time using actual values and predicted values. Device,
222-1 is the guide display panel surface of the guide display device 222, 222-2a is a display element for the time of destination A,
222-2d is a time display element for destination B, 222
-3a is a destination A indicator light, and 222-3b is a destination B indicator light.

In FIG. 2, 21 is a central processing unit, 22a
~22c are roadside machines installed on the roadside of points A to C, respectively, and 63a to 63c are roadside machines 22a~
Antenna 22c, 64a to 64c are lines connecting the central processing unit 21 and road devices 22a to 22c, 25a to 25c are route buses, 26a to 26c
67a is the on-board radio of route buses 25a to 25c.
~67c is the antenna of the on-board radio device 26a~26c, 68 is the traveling direction of the route bus 25a~25c,
Reference numeral 69 indicates the travel route of the route buses 25a to 25c.

FIG. 3 shows the detailed configuration of the central processing unit 21. In the figure, 30 is mainly composed of a microprocessor, and controls reading and writing data to the storage units 31 to 39, and controls the storage unit 31 to 39.
It reads necessary data from the data stored in 39 to 39, performs calculation processing, and writes the results to the storage section. Reference numeral 31 denotes a basic information storage section on the operation plan provided for each point and route, and this operation plan basic information storage section 31 stores vehicle numbers, passing times, timetable numbers, etc. Reference numeral 32 is a standard operation time storage section provided for each point-to-point and route, and 33 stores vehicle numbers, passing times, and timetable numbers. 34 is an actual operation time storage unit provided for each route and each point; 35 is an actual operation interval storage unit provided for each route; and 36 is a delay coefficient that normalizes the actual operation time required by the standard operation time. Storage unit 37 is a weighting storage unit for actual values;
8 is a sample value storage unit that stores the moving average value (sample value) of vehicles that have already traveled in a unit section; 39 is a parameter storage unit that stores parameters used when calculating weighting and sample values; 30-1 is a processing unit 30
A display output unit that outputs the vehicle number, route, timetable number, arrival time or departure time that are the results of calculations and judgments, and is a display device for the operation manager (not shown) and a display device for terminals or major stops, etc. It is what drives the.

FIG. 4 is a graph showing sample values of one section entry time showing the principle of calculating the predicted time of the vehicle to be predicted according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the arrangement of the terminal and on-road equipment near the terminal. 21 is a central processing unit, 2
2q to 22q are on-road devices, 25 is a route bus, 26 is an on-board radio, 63p to 63q is an antenna, 64p
64r is a line, 67 is an on-board antenna, 68 is a running direction, 69 is a running route, and 22r is a terminal guide display.

Next, the operation will be explained. In FIG. 2, on-board radios 26a to 2 are installed on route buses 25a to 25c.
6c, on-board radio 26a~ on the ground of travel route 69
On-road devices 22a to 26c transmit and receive bus information.
22c, a central processing unit 21 is installed at a business office, etc., and the roadside machine 22 is
The central processing unit 21 collects bus passage information from a to 22c, processes it in the processing unit 30 in FIG. 3, and stores it.

Passing information for each bus passing through points A to C (by vehicle number, by point, by timetable number) is stored in the passing information storage unit while being compared with the operation plan basic information storage unit 31 shown in FIG. .

The corresponding data is read out from among the data accumulated in the passage information storage section 33, and the processing section 30 performs calculation processing.
The result is stored in the actual travel time storage section 34.

In FIG. 2, the method determines when the bus 25a will arrive at point B after passing point A in the following manner. In order to predict the time required to travel between points A and B, vehicles that have already passed point B (the car in front, the car in front,
Calculations are performed using processed relatively new actual values of the previous car, etc.), and using the "delay coefficient", "weighting", and "moving average value = sample value" defined below.

Normally, the standard travel time between points for route buses is determined in advance, and varies depending on the time of operation and the route.

Therefore, since the actual value of vehicles that have already traveled between points A and B for route buses also differs depending on the time of operation and the route, it is necessary to use a value that is compared with some reference value. In this method, this standardized required time is herein referred to as a "delay coefficient D" and is defined as follows.

Delay coefficient = Actual operation time required / Standard operation time required Di = r _i /T _S (i = 0, -1, -2, ...) ... (300) formula In Figure 2, the vehicle is already running. Front car 25b, front car 2
5c, Actual travel time of the car before the previous one (not shown)
r ₀ , r _-1 and r _-2 are read from the actual operation required time storage section 34 shown in FIG.
T _S is read from the standard operation required time storage unit 32,
The processing unit 30 calculates the result of both values D ₀
= r ₀ /T _S , D _-1 = r _-1 /T _S and D _-2 = r _-2 /T _S are the respective delay coefficients D (D ₀ , D _-1 , and D _-2 = front car,
The delay coefficients are stored in the delay coefficient storage unit 36 as delay coefficients for the vehicle in front and the vehicle in front of the vehicle. In the conventional method, when predicting the travel time for a unit section (corresponding to points A-B and B-C in Figure 2), the average value of past actual values is simply used, which is unclear. There is. However, this is not practical, so in the present invention, the target time is set by focusing on which past performance value should be used and how far back in time it should be used. In other words, route buses operate at different intervals depending on the route and section. For example, some buses run every 3 minutes, while others run every 30 minutes. Depending on the name, more or less samples will occur. Therefore, according to the characteristics of the route and section,
Actual values should be used. Moreover, since road traffic changes from moment to moment, it is thought that using old performance values that go back too far into the past will not necessarily match current values. Usually, the latest actual value reflects the traffic situation at that time most, so in the present invention, when extracting the actual value by limiting the time period, the actual value is weighted. That is,
The newer the actual value is, the larger it is, and the older the actual value is, the smaller it is. This weight is defined as a function of the service interval as follows.

Wi=a+Si−Si _-1 /b (maximum Wi=1.0) ...(301) Formula a≦Wi≦1, i=0, (vehicle in front) i=-1, (vehicle in front) i=-2, (Cars in front of each other)... However, a: Weight correction coefficient b: Upper limit set value of service interval s: Arrival time of the route bus at point A Here, S ₀ and S _-1 are the times at point A in Figure 2. Front car 2
5b, the arrival time of the car 25c in front, and a and b are parameters.

a is S ₀ = S _-1 , that is, the weight of the arriving car when the car in front and the car in front arrive at the same time in Dango operation,
b is the upper limit set value for the travel interval that takes in data from the car in front. For example, if b = 30 (minutes),
When a=1/3, if S ₀ −S _-1 ≧20 (minutes), the car in front 2
The weight of 5b is W ₀ =1.

As for weighting, when the service interval is short, the number of samples is large and the weight is distributed, and when the service interval is long, the number of samples is small and the weight becomes larger as the actual value of the vehicle that passed immediately before the target vehicle for prediction increases. Weighting for each vehicle that has already traveled can be calculated using equation (301). In addition, even if the actual values between points A and B are in the same time zone,
Since there are variations due to the number of passengers, waiting at traffic lights, and other changes in traffic conditions, this method uses a moving average value (hereinafter referred to as a sample value) for vehicles that have already traveled.
Use to perform predictive calculations.

Here, the sample values of the vehicle in front 25b and the vehicle in front 25c are defined as follows.

Sample value of the car in front: l ₀ = W ₀ D ₀ + (1-W ₀ ) l _-
1Sample value of the car in front: l ₀ = W ₀ D ₀ + (1-W ₀ ) l _-
1 Sample value for the car in front: l _-1 = W _-1 D _-1 + (1 - W _-1 ) l _-2 (3
02) Formula However, l _-2 : Car in front (not shown in Figure 2)
Sample values W ₀ , W _-1 : Weights of the vehicle in front and the vehicle in front D ₀ , D _-1 : Delay coefficients of the vehicle in front and the vehicle in front 37, the delay coefficient is read out from the delay coefficient storage section 36, and the processing section 3
0, the calculation result is stored in the sample value storage unit 38 using equation (302).

The prediction calculation for the arrival of the prediction target vehicle at point B is performed using the sample value l ₁ (prediction value).

FIG. 4 is a graph showing the situation of sample value vs. section entry time, where the section entry time means the passing time of the prediction target vehicle 25a at point A in FIG.
The horizontal axis shows the section entry times of vehicles that have already traveled and vehicles that are subject to prediction, and the vertical axis indicates sample values of vehicles that have already traveled and vehicles that are subject to prediction. From FIG. 4, the sample value l ₁ of the prediction target vehicle is derived as follows.

l ₁ −l ₀ /S ₁ −S ₁ =K ₁・l ₀ −l ₋₁ /S ₀ −S ₋₁ 1 That is, l ₁ =l ₀ +K ₁・l ₀ −l ₋₁ /S ₀ −S _-1・(S ₁ −S ₀ )……(303
) Formula where K ₁ : Slope of straight line Here, the value of K ₁ is the slope of the straight line, but in this method, it is approximated by the slope of a quadratic curve, which is easy to calculate. Therefore, K ₁ becomes: (Details on deriving the value of K ₁ when approximated by a quadratic curve are omitted.) When Si<S ₀ +C, K ₁ = 1-S _i -S ₀ 0/2C (i = 1, 2, 3,...) When Si≧ _S0 +C, _K1 =0.5 (because Si= _S0 +C)...Equation (304) However, the value of C is the predicted upper limit setting value.

The travel time (predicted value) of the prediction target vehicle 25a between points A and B is based on the sample value _l1 .
It is multiplied by the standard travel time T _S between B and B.

Time required to travel between points A and B = l ₁ × T _S Therefore, the time when the prediction target vehicle 5a passes point B is: Passage time of point B = Time required to travel between points A + Time required to travel between points A and B =S ₁ +l ₁ ×T _S ... (305) formula is obtained. Therefore, to predict the time when the prediction target vehicle 25a passes point B, the sample value of the vehicle that has already traveled as shown in FIG. Called from the information storage section 33, parameter storage section 39
The parameter C is read out, the processing unit 30 calculates and processes the equations (303) and (304), stores the sample value l ₁ of the prediction target vehicle 25a in the sample value storage unit 38, and processes the equation (305). The calculation process is performed in the unit 30 to derive the passing time of the vehicle to be predicted. In a similar manner, the passing time of the prediction target vehicle at point C can also be determined by calculating and summing the required travel time for each unit section AB and BC.

Therefore, the passing time at a point beyond point C, which is not shown in Fig. 2, is also predicted by summing up the travel time (predicted value) for each unit section using the actual values of vehicles that have already traveled. can. In the processing section 30 shown in FIG.
Reads the result of calculating the predicted passage time of the predicted vehicle from the operation plan basic information storage unit 31,
If the actual value is read from the passage information storage unit 33, compared, and outputted to the display output unit 30-1, the route bus 2
The planned passing time, actual value, and predicted time of each point along the travel route 5a to 25c can be displayed.

As a result, the operation status of each bus can be displayed for each point on the CRT screen of the business office, etc., so tracking management is possible. On the guidance display device 222 of the on-road vehicle on the traveling route,
The scheduled arrival time or scheduled departure time can be displayed.

In this case, as shown in Figure 1, if the bus is running far away from the roadside aircraft, the time of arrival or scheduled departure time may be displayed, for example, "10" depending on the traffic conditions along the way. : around 10:23'' is displayed, and when a bus comes near the roadside aircraft, the time is erased from the said ``around 10:23'' to ``10:24,'' and
Display the result of recalculating the predicted time.

Therefore, if the current time is known, it is clear how many minutes the bus will have to wait for the bus to arrive, which is convenient for the passengers.

Next, in FIG. 5, when the bus passes through the predicted arrival point P near the final bus terminal where each bus's arrival at the terminal is predicted, the antenna 63p
Communication occurs between the on-board radio device 26 via the on-board antenna 67 of the route bus 25 and the on-board antenna 67 of the route bus 25, and bus passage information is transmitted to the central processing unit 21 via the line 64p. , the arrival time at the terminal is predicted. When using this result to display the scheduled departure time from the terminal on the guide display 22r, the destination A indicator light 222- on the guide display panel 222-1 shown in FIG.
3a, Destination B Around The same as the indicator light 222-2b, for example, the approximate time is displayed as "around 13:23". However, when the bus that has passed in front of point P arrives at the final confirmed arrival point Q just before the terminal, the terminal arrival time can be determined from the actual passing time information of this bus, as described above, so the next bus will depart. The scheduled departure time of the bus is "around 13:23"
``13:24'' and display the confirmed time.

Moreover, the central processing unit 21
Passage information of the route bus passing in front of c is sent to the roadside device 22.
Since the data is collected from a to 22c using a polling signal with a fixed period, if the operation time data is transmitted to the roadside devices 22a to 22c via the lines 64a to 64c at a fixed period (for example, 1 minute), the information is sent to the guidance display device 222. The displayed arrival or departure time is constantly updated, so the operating time that best reflects the running status of the route bus is displayed according to traffic conditions.

In addition, in the above example, when deriving the sample value (predicted value) of the prediction target vehicle using equation (303), the slope K ₁ of the straight line is approximated by a quadratic curve and the calculation process is performed ( Although the formula 304) has been set, the same effect as in the above embodiment can be achieved even if it is approximated by another easy-to-calculate function.

Further, in the above embodiment, the display element 222-2a
Although 7-segment display elements are used in 222-2b and 222-2b, LEDs or the like may be used as display elements.

Similarly, although indicator lights 222-3a and 222-3b are used, a display element such as a flap may also be used.

〔Effect of the invention〕

As described above, according to the present invention, operation plan values and actual values are stored in the storage unit of the central processing unit, and the arrival time is calculated by the processing unit based on the latest data by limiting the time period. It can also be applied to routes with long operating intervals, and highly accurate prediction results can be obtained. This will accurately display the scheduled arrival time of the roadside aircraft on the travel route, improving service to passengers and ensuring the punctuality of bus operations, which will have the effect of stimulating passenger demand. In addition, since the arrival time or scheduled departure time is displayed on the approach guidance display device installed at the bus terminal, for example, passengers waiting at the bus terminal may wonder if they have time to buy a drink. This makes it possible to make decisions for the convenience of passengers waiting at the bus terminal.

[Brief explanation of the drawing]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a guide display device included in a roadside device of a route bus operation management device according to an embodiment of the present invention, and FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a route bus operation management method according to an embodiment of the present invention. Fig. 3 is a detailed configuration diagram of the central processing unit in the route bus operation management method of the present invention, Fig. 4 is a principle diagram for calculating the predicted time of the target vehicle according to an embodiment of the present invention, and Fig. 5 is a diagram of the terminal and FIG. 6 is a block diagram of a conventional route bus operation management method, and FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing an approach guidance display device included in a conventional road bus. 21 is a central processing unit, 22a to 22c, 22p
~22q is a roadside device, 221 is a ground radio device, 222
222-2 is a guide display device, 222-1 is a guide display device board, 222-2a is a destination A display element, and 222-2 is a guide display device;
b is a destination B display element, 222-3a is a destination A indicator light, 222-3b is a destination B indicator light, 22r is a terminal guide, 25, 25a to 25c are route buses, 26, 26a to 26c are cars Top radio, 3
0 is a processing unit, 31 is an operation plan basic information storage unit, 3
2 is a standard operation time storage section, 33 is a passage information storage section, 34 is an actual operation time storage section, 35 is an actual operation interval storage section, 36 is a delay coefficient storage section, 37 is a weighting storage section, 38 is a sample value storage section, 39 is a parameter storage section, 30-1 is a display output section, 61
is a central operation control device, 62a to 62c are ground receivers, 63a to 63c are antennas, 64a to 64c
is the line, 65a to 65c is a specific car, 66a to
66c is an on-board radio transmitter, 67, 67a to 67c
is an on-vehicle antenna, 68 is a running direction, 69 is a running route, 70 is a road device, 71 is an approach guidance display device, 7
Reference numeral 11 indicates the approach guidance display panel surface, and 712 indicates the vehicle distance display panel surface. In the drawings, the same reference numerals indicate the same or corresponding parts.

Claims (1)

[Scope of Claims] 1. An on-board radio device on a route bus, a ground radio device on the ground of the travel route that transmits and receives information with the on-board radio device,
In a route bus operation management method, a central processing unit is installed at a business office, etc., and bus passing information is collected from ground radio equipment via a line, and the route bus operation is managed by calculating the time to arrive at a specific point. At the latest passing time in front of the terrestrial radio at which the vehicle to be predicted has arrived, divide the untraveled section into unit sections between the terrestrial radio and the terrestrial radio, and calculate the predicted travel time for each unit section. The processing unit of the central processing unit for calculating the arrival time by adding the total, the basic information of the operation plan, the passing information, the actual operation time of the unit section, the standard operation time and the actual operation interval. The storage unit of the central processing unit stores the data, and limits the target time of past travel time actual values used for prediction, and the delay coefficient D that normalizes the actual travel time required by the standard travel time. Using the value of weighting W for the actual travel time, sample values l _i , l ₀ = W ₀ D ₀ are moving average values of vehicles that have already traveled through the unit section before the prediction target vehicle. + (1-W ₀ )1 _-1 l _-1 = W ₁ D _-1 + (1-W _-1 ) l _-2 (i=0, -1, -2...) (However, subscripts 0, -1 , -2 means the respective values of the vehicle in front, the vehicle in front, and the vehicle in front of the vehicle in front. Limiting the time, from the sample values l ₀ and l _-1 calculated above,
Sample values of the unit section of the prediction target vehicle l ₁ , l ₁ = l ₀ +K・l ₀ −l ₋₁ /S ₀ −S ₋₁・(S ₁ −S ₀ ) (However, subscripts 1, 0, − 1 is the prediction target vehicle, the front vehicle,
It means each value of the car before the previous car. ) is calculated by the processing unit, and the predicted sample value l ₁ and the standard operation required time T _S are calculated as the predicted required time for the unit section.
The processing unit calculates the product of , and in the same way, totals the time required for each unit section of the untraveled section, calculates the arrival time at a specific point, and tracks and manages the operating status of the bus. Route bus operation management characterized by displaying the arrival time or scheduled departure time on a guidance display device installed on a roadside device incorporating a terrestrial radio device on the travel route and a guidance display device installed at a bus terminal. Method.