JP5513546B2 - Distribution estimation apparatus, method, and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a distribution estimation technique, and more particularly to a distribution estimation technique for estimating a target distribution for each mesh provided by dividing an estimation target area.

  In order to ensure the reliability of communication services by quickly recovering from communication equipment failures, optimal allocation of maintenance personnel and replacement items is effective. In order to formulate a distribution plan for maintenance personnel and the like, high-precision and detailed failure estimation (failure prediction) is required. In order to estimate the number of failures with high accuracy, detailed information on the occurrence time and location of past equipment failures is required in statistical processing, but acquisition of failure information that includes detailed location information on the occurrence location is also required. It is difficult.

  Conventionally, for the estimation of the number of lightning damage failures, a certain range (for example, one prefecture area) is targeted, and the number of lightning damage failures, lightning strike information and facility information for each unit area (for example, 5 km mesh) within the target. A method of estimating the number of lightning damages in the future by constructing a model function that represents the relationship between them is proposed (see, for example, Patent Documents 1 and 2). At that time, although there is detailed position information regarding lightning strike information and facility information, there is no detailed position information regarding lightning damage, and lightning damage information is tabulated for each communication building. Therefore, as a method of calculating the number of lightning damage failures per unit area, first, the information on lightning damage failures collected for each communication building is used, and the distribution of equipment failures is determined by the service building area of each communication building. Assuming that it is a certain range centered on the current location (for example, a 10 km square centered on the location where the communication building is located), and assuming that it is uniformly distributed in that range, A method for determining the number of lightning damages is known.

JP 2008-15620 A JP 2009-15450 A

According to the above-described prior art, the distribution of equipment failures is assumed to be uniformly distributed within a certain total area around the position where each communication building is located.
However, in reality, the service provision area of a communication building is not necessarily a regular shape, and the size of the service provision area may vary greatly depending on the region.

FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram showing the distribution of communication buildings in a certain service providing area. As shown in FIG. 13, for example, in a city center, facilities are densely packed, so the service providing area of one communication building is small, and the distance between the communication building and the communication building is also short. On the other hand, in the rural area, there are few facilities, so the service providing area of one communication building is wide, and the distance between the communication building and the communication building is also long.
FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram showing the distribution of the total extension of the optical cable in a certain service providing area. In this case, it can be seen that within one service providing area, there is a bias in the distribution of communication facilities, here the distribution of the total length of the optical cable. Actually, the number of equipment failures is closely related to the number of service provisions and the distribution of communication equipment, and the equipment distribution is not always uniform. Bias occurs.

  The present invention is for solving such problems, and provides a distribution estimation technique capable of estimating the failure distribution for each mesh with high accuracy even when the failure distribution is estimated based on rough position information of each target. The purpose is to do.

  In order to achieve such an object, the distributed estimation apparatus according to the present invention manages communication facilities existing in its own service providing area among communication facilities for providing communication services in the estimation target area. For each communication building, a communication building information DB that stores communication building information indicating the position of the communication building, a communication facility that indicates a position of the communication facility existing in the estimation target area, and a communication building that manages the communication facility A communication facility information DB for storing information; a mesh information DB for storing mesh information indicating positions of meshes provided by equally dividing the estimation target area in a grid pattern; and for each communication building, A failure information DB that stores failure information indicating a failure of the communication facility that has occurred in the service providing area, and each communication information read from the communication building information DB. The combination of the communication building and the mesh from the position of the communication facility information DB, the position of each communication facility read from the communication facility information DB and the communication building managing the communication facility, and the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB The number of individual communication facilities that calculate the number of individual communication facilities and the number of individual communication facilities that indicate the number of communication facilities managed in the communication building that exist in the mesh. From the number of individual communication facilities and the failure information read from the failure information DB, the number of individual communication facilities and the number of communication facilities existing in the service providing area of the communication building for each combination of the communication building and the mesh Individual failure that calculates the number of individual failures that indicate the number of failures of communication equipment managed in the communication building that occurred within the mesh based on the ratio From the calculation unit, the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB, and the number of individual failures calculated by the individual failure number calculation unit, the number of all failures occurring in the mesh is indicated for each mesh. And a mesh-by-mesh failure number calculation unit for calculating the number of failures by mesh.

  Further, in the configuration example of the distribution estimation device according to the present invention, when the individual failure number calculation unit calculates the number of individual failures of a combination of a communication building and a mesh, each individual communication related to the communication building Aggregate the number of facilities, calculate the number of area communication facilities indicating the number of communication facilities existing in the service provision area of the communication building, and calculate the ratio of the number of individual communication facilities of the combination to the number of area communication facilities. By multiplying this ratio by the number of failures of the communication building included in the failure information, the number of individual failures of the combination is calculated.

  Further, in the configuration example of the distribution estimation device according to the present invention, when the number of failures by mesh calculation unit calculates the number of failures by mesh of a certain mesh, the number of individual failures is related to the mesh. By counting the number of individual faults for each communication building group, the number of faults by mesh of the mesh is calculated.

  Moreover, in one configuration example of the distribution estimation apparatus according to the present invention, the communication facility information DB indicates a communication pole that provides the communication service as the communication facility and a communication building that manages the utility pole. The facility information is stored, and the number of individual communication facilities is calculated for each combination of the communication building and the mesh by calculating the number of utility poles managed in the communication building that exist in the mesh. It is calculated as a number.

Further, in the configuration example of the distribution estimation apparatus according to the present invention, the communication facility information DB indicates a communication cable position for providing the communication service as the communication facility and a communication building that manages the communication cable. The communication facility information is stored, and the individual communication facility number calculation unit calculates the communication cable length managed in the communication building that exists in the mesh for each combination of the communication building and the mesh. The communication cable length is calculated as the number of communication facilities.

  In addition, the distribution estimation method according to the present invention includes a communication building information DB that manages each communication facility that exists in its own service providing area among communication facilities for providing a communication service in the estimation target area. A communication building information storage step for storing communication building information indicating the position of the communication building, and a communication facility information DB that manages the position of the communication facility and the communication facility existing in the estimation target area. A communication facility information storage step for storing communication facility information indicating a mesh information DB, and a mesh information storage step for storing mesh information indicating a position of each mesh provided by dividing the estimation target area into a lattice shape. The failure information DB indicates, for each communication building, a failure of the communication facility that has occurred in the service providing area of the communication building. The failure information storage step for storing information, the position of each communication building read from the communication building information DB by the individual communication facility number calculation unit, the position of each communication facility read from the communication facility information DB, and the communication facility From the communication building that manages the communication building and the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB, for each combination of the communication building and the mesh, the communication facility that is managed in the communication building that exists in the mesh An individual communication equipment number calculating step for calculating the number of individual communication equipment, and an individual failure number calculation section read out from the failure information DB, the number of individual communication equipment calculated by the individual communication equipment number calculation section From the failure information, for each combination of the communication building and the mesh, the number of the individual communication facilities and the communication existing in the service providing area of the communication building Based on the ratio to the number of units, the individual failure number calculation step for calculating the number of individual failures, indicating the number of failures of the communication equipment managed in the communication building that occurred in the mesh, and the number of failures by mesh The unit indicates the number of all faults occurring in the mesh for each mesh from the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB and the individual fault number calculated by the individual fault number calculation unit. A mesh-by-mesh failure count calculation step.

  Moreover, the program concerning this invention is a program for functioning a computer as each part of the distribution estimation apparatus as described in any one mentioned above.

  According to the present invention, when converting the failure distribution for each service providing area into the failure distribution for each mesh, the number of communication facilities in the service providing area and the mesh in the service providing area are determined for each communication building. The number of failures in the service providing area is converted into the number of failures in the mesh based on the ratio with the communication equipment in the mesh. For this reason, assuming that faults are uniformly distributed in the service provision area as in the past, the number of faults by service provision area is calculated based on the ratio between the area of the service provision area and the mesh area. Compared with the case of converting to a number, it is possible to suppress the magnitude of an error caused by the conversion of the distribution. Therefore, even when the failure distribution is estimated based on the rough position information of each target, it is possible to estimate the failure distribution for each mesh with high accuracy using readily available communication facility information.

It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the distribution estimation apparatus concerning 1st Embodiment. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the process of the distribution estimation apparatus concerning 1st Embodiment. It is a structural example of communication building information. It is a structural example of communication equipment information information. It is a structural example of mesh information. It is an example of arrangement | positioning of a mesh. It is a structural example of failure information. It is explanatory drawing which shows the number of separate communication facilities. It is an example of calculation of the number of individual communication facilities. It is an example of calculation of the number of individual faults. It is an example of calculation of the number of failures by mesh. It is a flowchart which shows the distribution estimation process of the distribution estimation apparatus concerning 1st Embodiment. It is a structural example of the communication equipment information information concerning 2nd Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the distribution estimation process of the distribution estimation apparatus concerning 2nd Embodiment. It is explanatory drawing which shows distribution of the communication building in a certain service provision area. It is explanatory drawing which shows distribution of the total extension of the optical cable in a certain service provision area.

Next, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
[First Embodiment]
First, the distribution estimation apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a distribution estimation apparatus according to the first embodiment. FIG. 2 is a conceptual diagram showing processing of the distribution estimation apparatus according to the first embodiment.

The distribution estimation device 10 is composed of an information processing device such as a server device or a PC as a whole, and a service provision in which failures of communication facilities are actually tabulated based on various information relating to the provision of communication services stored in a database. It has a function of estimating the failure distribution by calculating the number of failures for each mesh that does not coincide with the area.
In the present embodiment, the number of failures for each mesh provided by equally dividing the estimation target area into a lattice shape is calculated from the number of failures counted for each service provision area of the communication building serving as a base providing the communication service. A case will be described as an example.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the distribution estimation apparatus 10 includes, as main functional units, a communication building information DB 11, a communication facility information DB 12, a mesh information DB 13, a failure information DB 14, an individual communication facility number calculation unit 15, an individual failure number calculation. A unit 16 and a failure count calculation unit 17 for each mesh are provided.

In addition to these functions, the distribution estimation apparatus 10 includes general configurations provided in the information processing apparatus such as a screen display unit, an operation input unit, a storage unit, and a communication I / F unit. Shall.
Among the functional units, the communication building information DB 11, the communication facility information DB 12, the mesh information DB 13, and the failure information DB 14 are configured from a storage device such as a hard disk or a semiconductor memory. The individual communication equipment number calculation unit 15, the individual failure number calculation unit 16, and the mesh-specific failure number calculation unit 17 are realized by a CPU that executes a program read from a storage unit (not shown).

The communication building information DB 11 is a communication that indicates the position of the communication building for each communication building that manages communication facilities existing in the service providing area of the communication facility for providing the communication service in the estimation target area. It has a function to store building information.
FIG. 3 is a configuration example of communication building information. Here, for each communication building code for identifying a communication building, a building name and position information indicating a position where the communication building is installed are registered. As the position information, latitude and longitude are used.

The communication facility information DB 12 has a function of storing communication facility information indicating the position of a communication facility such as a utility pole existing in the estimation target area and a communication building that manages the communication facility.
FIG. 4 is a configuration example of communication facility information information. Here, a power pole is shown as an example of communication equipment, and for each communication building that manages the power pole, a power pole number for identifying the power pole and position information indicating the position where the power pole is installed are registered. Yes. As the position information, latitude and longitude are used.

The mesh information DB 13 has a function of storing mesh information indicating the position of each mesh provided by equally dividing the estimation target area in a lattice shape.
FIG. 5A is a configuration example of mesh information, and FIG. 5B is an example of mesh arrangement. Here, a mesh is composed of a rectangular area having a side length LA of 5 km, and for each mesh ID for identifying the mesh, position information indicating the base point position of the mesh, for example, the northwest corner position of the mesh The latitude and longitude are registered. Note that the size and position of the mesh may be arbitrarily set according to the required distribution estimation data, but the size of the mesh is smaller than the service providing area.

The failure information DB 14 has a function of storing, for each service provision area of the communication building, failure information indicating a failure of the communication facility that has occurred in the service provision area.
FIG. 6 is a configuration example of failure information. Here, the number of failures in each year is registered for each building name indicating the communication building corresponding to the failure that has occurred.

  The individual communication equipment number calculation unit 15 includes the position of each communication building read from the communication building information DB 11, the position of each communication equipment read from the communication equipment information DB 12, the management communication building for managing the communication equipment, and the mesh information DB 13. For each combination of the communication building Kj and the mesh Ai, the number of individual communication facilities Pji indicating the number of communication facilities managed in the communication building Kj that are present in the mesh Ai from the position of each mesh read from It has a function to calculate

  FIG. 7A is an explanatory diagram showing the number of individual communication facilities, and FIG. 7B is a calculation example of the number of individual communication facilities. Here, the installation position of the utility pole, which is the communication equipment shown in FIG. 3, is compared with the position of each mesh Ai shown in FIG. 5B, and the mesh Ai to which the utility pole of the communication building Kj belongs is listed. The relationship between the service providing area of Kj and the mesh Ai, that is, the service providing mesh list of the communication building Kj is generated. In addition, for each mesh Ai in the service provision mesh list of each communication building Kj, the number of utility poles managed in the communication building Kj existing in the mesh Ai is calculated as the number of individual communication facilities Pji.

  In this case, in the example of FIG. 7B, the installation positions of the utility poles of the communication building K1 are distributed in the meshes A5, A6, A7, A9, A10, A11, and A14. A6, A7, A9, A10, A11, A14. Moreover, since the installation positions of the utility poles of the communication building K2 are distributed in the meshes A2, A3, A4, A7, and A8, the service providing meshes of the communication building K2 are A2, A3, A4, A7, and A8.

  The individual failure number calculation unit 16 performs individual communication for each combination of the communication building Kj and the mesh Ai from the individual communication facility number Pji calculated by the individual communication facility number calculation unit 15 and the failure information read from the failure information DB 14. Based on the ratio between the number of facilities Pji and the number of communication facilities Pj existing in the service provision area of the communication building Kj, the number of failures of the communication facilities managed in the communication building Kj that occurred in the mesh Ai is calculated. It has a function of calculating the individual failure number Fji shown. FIG. 8 is an example of calculation of the number of individual faults.

式（１）では、まず、図７Ｂに示したサービス提供メッシュリストおよび各個別通信設備数Ｐｊｉから、当該通信ビルＫｊに関連する個別通信設備数Ｐｊｉを集計して、当該通信ビルＫｊのサービス提供エリア内に存在するエリア通信設備数Ｐｊを計算し、当該組合せの個別通信設備数Ｐｊｉがエリア通信設備数Ｐｊに占める比率を計算する。次に、この比率を通信ビルＫｊの故障数Ｆｊに乗算することにより、当該組合せの個別故障数Ｆｊｉを計算する。 At this time, the individual failure number calculation unit 16 calculates the individual failure number Fji of the combination of a certain communication building Ki and the mesh Ai, that is, the individual failure number Fji of the mesh Ai belonging to the service providing area of the certain communication building Kj. Calculate based on the following formula (1)

In Expression (1), first, the number of individual communication facilities Pji related to the communication building Kj is aggregated from the service provision mesh list and the number of individual communication facilities Pji shown in FIG. The number of area communication facilities Pj existing in the area is calculated, and the ratio of the number of individual communication facilities Pji of the combination to the number of area communication facilities Pj is calculated. Next, by multiplying this ratio by the failure number Fj of the communication building Kj, the individual failure number Fji of the combination is calculated.

  The number-of-mesh failure number calculation unit 17 calculates, for each mesh Ai, all the occurrences in the mesh from the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB 13 and the individual failure number Fji calculated by the individual failure number calculation unit 16. It has a function of calculating the number of failures by mesh Fi indicating the number of failures. FIG. 9 is a calculation example of the number of failures by mesh.

式（２）では、図５Ｂに示した各メッシュＡｉの位置と、図８に示したサービス提供メッシュリストおよび個別故障数Ｆｊｉとから、当該メッシュに関する、各通信ビルＫｉとの組の個別故障数を集計することにより、当該メッシュＡｉのメッシュ別故障数Ｆｉを計算する。 At this time, the number-of-mesh failure number calculation unit 17 calculates the number of failure numbers Fi for each mesh Ai based on the following equation (2).

In Expression (2), the number of individual faults in the set with each communication building Ki regarding the mesh from the position of each mesh Ai shown in FIG. 5B and the service provision mesh list and the individual fault number Fji shown in FIG. Is calculated, the number of failures by mesh Fi of the mesh Ai is calculated.

[Operation of First Embodiment]
Next, the operation of the distribution estimation apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 10 is a flowchart illustrating a distribution estimation process of the distribution estimation apparatus according to the first embodiment.

  First, the number of individual communication equipment calculation unit 15 includes the position of each communication building read from the communication building information DB 11, the position of each communication equipment read from the communication equipment information DB 12, the management communication building that manages the communication equipment, and the mesh. The number of individual communication facilities Pji is calculated for each combination of the communication building Kj and the mesh Ai from the position of each mesh read from the information DB 13 (step 100).

  Subsequently, the individual failure number calculation unit 16 calculates the communication building number Pji based on the equation (1) from the individual communication facility number Pji calculated by the individual communication facility number calculation unit 15 and the failure information read from the failure information DB 14. For each combination of Kj and mesh Ai, the number of individual faults Fji is calculated (step 101).

  Thereafter, the number-of-mesh failure number calculation unit 17 calculates the mesh from the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB 13 and the individual failure number Fji calculated by the individual failure number calculation unit 16 based on the equation (2). The number of failures by mesh Fi for each Ai is calculated (step 102), and the series of distribution estimation processing is terminated.

[Effect of the first embodiment]
As described above, according to the present embodiment, the individual communication facility number calculation unit 15 reads the position of each communication building read from the communication building information DB 11, the position of each communication facility read from the communication facility information DB 12, and the mesh information DB 13. For each combination of the communication building Kj and the mesh Ai, the number of individual communication facilities Pji indicating the number of communication facilities managed in the communication building Kj that are present in the mesh Ai from the position of each mesh read from For each combination of the communication building Kj and the mesh Ai from the individual communication equipment number Pji calculated by the individual communication equipment number calculation section 15 and the fault information read from the fault information DB 14. Based on the ratio between the number of individual communication facilities Pji and the number of communication facilities Pj existing in the service providing area of the communication building Kj. The individual failure number Fji indicating the number of failures of the communication equipment managed by the communication building Kj that occurred in the network is calculated, and the mesh-specific failure number calculation unit 17 calculates the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB 13 and From the individual failure number Fji calculated by the individual failure number calculation unit 16, for each mesh Ai, the failure number Fi for each mesh indicating all the failure numbers occurring in the mesh is calculated. .

As a result, when the failure distribution for each service providing area is converted to the failure distribution for each mesh, the number of communication facilities in the service providing area and the communication in the mesh in the service providing area are determined for each communication building. Based on the ratio with the equipment, the number of failures in the service providing area is converted into the number of failures in the mesh. For this reason, assuming that faults are uniformly distributed in the service provision area as in the past, the number of faults by service provision area is calculated based on the ratio between the area of the service provision area and the mesh area. Compared with the case of converting to a number, it is possible to suppress the magnitude of an error caused by distribution conversion.
Therefore, even when the failure distribution is estimated based on the rough position information of each target, it is possible to estimate the failure distribution for each mesh with high accuracy using readily available communication facility information.

[Second Embodiment]
Next, with reference to FIGS. 1 and 2, a distribution estimation apparatus 10 according to a second embodiment of the present invention will be described. Note that the functional units provided in the distribution estimation apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment and the processing concept of the distribution estimation apparatus 10 are the same as those in the first embodiment, and here, FIG. 1 and FIG. This will be described with reference to FIG.

  In 1st Embodiment, the case where the failure number according to mesh was calculated based on the number of communication facilities which consists of the number of the utility poles which are one of the communication facilities was demonstrated as an example. In the present embodiment, a case will be described in which the number of failures for each mesh is calculated based on the number of communication facilities including the communication cable distance instead of the number of utility poles. The communication cable may be a metallic electric wire or an optical fiber.

In the present embodiment, the communication facility information DB 12 has a function of storing communication facility information indicating a communication cable position that provides a communication service in the estimation target area and a communication building that manages the electric wire.
FIG. 11 is a configuration example of communication facility information information according to the second embodiment. Here, an electric wire is shown as an example of communication equipment, and for each communication building that manages the electric wire, a wire number for identifying the electric wire and position information indicating the position of the start point and the end point where the electric wire is installed, Is registered. As the position information, latitude and longitude are used.

  The individual communication equipment number calculation unit 15 reads out the position of each communication building read from the communication building information DB 11, the management communication building that manages each communication cable position and the electric wire read from the communication equipment information DB 12, and the mesh information DB 13. From the position of each mesh, for each combination of the communication building Kj and the mesh Ai, the number of individual communication facilities indicating the communication cable distance (length) managed in the communication building Kj existing in the mesh Ai It has a function of calculating Wji.

  At this time, the individual communication equipment number calculation unit 15 compares the communication cable installation position, which is the communication equipment shown in FIG. 11, with the position of each mesh Ai shown in FIG. 5B, and the electric wire of the communication building Kj belongs. The meshes Ai are listed, and the relationship between the service provision area of the communication building Kj and the mesh Ai, that is, the service provision mesh list of the communication building Kj is generated. In addition, for each mesh Ai in the service provision mesh list of each communication building Kj, the communication cable distance managed in the communication building Kj existing in the mesh Ai is calculated as the number of individual communication facilities Wji. The communication cable distance can be calculated from the communication cable start point and end point position coordinates and the mesh boundary position coordinates.

  The individual failure number calculation unit 16 performs individual communication for each combination of the communication building Kj and the mesh Ai from the individual communication facility number Wji calculated by the individual communication facility number calculation unit 15 and the failure information read from the failure information DB 14. Based on the ratio between the number of facilities Wji and the number of communication facilities Wj existing in the service provision area of the communication building Kj, the number of failures of the communication facilities managed in the communication building Kj that occurred in the mesh Ai is calculated. It has a function of calculating the individual failure number Fji shown.

式（３）では、まず、個別通信設備数Ｗｊｉから、当該通信ビルＫｊに関連する個別通信設備数Ｗｊｉを集計して、当該通信ビルＫｊのサービス提供エリア内に存在するエリア通信設備数Ｗｊを計算し、当該組合せの個別通信設備数Ｗｊｉがエリア通信設備数Ｗｊに占める比率を計算する。次に、この比率を通信ビルＫｊの故障数Ｆｊに乗算することにより、当該組合せの個別故障数Ｆｊｉを計算する。 At this time, the individual failure number calculation unit 16 calculates the individual failure number Fji of the mesh Ai belonging to the service providing area of a certain communication building Kj, that is, the individual failure number Fji of the mesh Ai belonging to the service providing area of a certain communication building Kj. To calculate based on the following formula (3)

In the equation (3), first, the number of individual communication facilities Wji related to the communication building Kj is calculated from the number of individual communication facilities Wji, and the number of area communication facilities Wj existing in the service providing area of the communication building Kj is calculated. And the ratio of the number of individual communication facilities Wji of the combination to the number of area communication facilities Wj is calculated. Next, by multiplying this ratio by the failure number Fj of the communication building Kj, the individual failure number Fji of the combination is calculated.

  The number-of-mesh failure number calculation unit 17 calculates, for each mesh Ai, all the occurrences in the mesh from the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB 13 and the individual failure number Fji calculated by the individual failure number calculation unit 16. It has a function of calculating the number of failures by mesh Fi indicating the number of failures.

式（４）では、図５Ｂに示した各メッシュＡｉの位置と、図８に示したサービス提供メッシュリストおよび個別故障数Ｆｊｉとから、当該メッシュに関する、各通信ビルＫｉとの組の個別故障数を集計することにより、当該メッシュＡｉのメッシュ別故障数Ｆｉを計算する。 At this time, the number-of-mesh failure number calculation unit 17 calculates the number of failures by mesh Fi of a certain mesh Ai based on the following equation (4).

In the equation (4), the number of individual failures in the set with each communication building Ki related to the mesh from the position of each mesh Ai shown in FIG. 5B and the service provision mesh list and the number of individual failures Fji shown in FIG. Is calculated, the number of failures by mesh Fi of the mesh Ai is calculated.

[Operation of Second Embodiment]
Next, the operation of the distribution estimation apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 12 is a flowchart illustrating a distribution estimation process of the distribution estimation apparatus according to the second embodiment.

  First, the individual communication equipment number calculation unit 15 is based on the position of each communication building read from the communication building information DB 11, each communication cable position read from the communication equipment information DB 12, and each mesh position read from the mesh information DB 13. The number of individual communication facilities Wji is calculated for each combination of the communication building Kj and the mesh Ai (step 200).

  Subsequently, the individual failure number calculation unit 16 calculates the communication building number based on the equation (3) from the individual communication facility number Wji calculated by the individual communication facility number calculation unit 15 and the failure information read from the failure information DB 14. For each combination of Kj and mesh Ai, the number of individual faults Fji is calculated (step 201).

  Thereafter, the number-of-mesh failure number calculation unit 17 calculates the mesh from the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB 13 and the individual failure number Fji calculated by the individual failure number calculation unit 16 based on the equation (2). The number of failures by mesh Fi for each Ai is calculated (step 202), and the series of distribution estimation processing is terminated.

[Effect of the second embodiment]
As described above, since the present embodiment calculates the number of failures by mesh based on the number of communication facilities including the communication cable distance instead of the number of utility poles, the communication facility information that is relatively easily available is used. In addition, it is possible to estimate the failure distribution for each mesh with high accuracy.

[Extended embodiment]
The present invention has been described above with reference to the embodiments, but the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. Various changes that can be understood by those skilled in the art can be made to the configuration and details of the present invention within the scope of the present invention.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Distribution estimation apparatus, 11 ... Communication building information DB, 12 ... Communication equipment information DB, 13 ... Mesh information DB, 14 ... Failure information DB, 15 ... Individual communication equipment number calculation part, 16 ... Individual failure number calculation part, 17 ... Number of failures by mesh calculation unit, Kj ... Communication building, Ai ... Mesh, Pji ... Number of individual communication facilities, Pj ... Number of area communication facilities, Fji ... Number of individual failures, Fj ... Number of failures by mesh, Wji ... Number of individual communication facilities , Wj: Number of area communication facilities.

Claims (7)

Communication that stores communication building information indicating the location of the communication building for each communication building that manages communication facilities existing in the service providing area of the communication facility for providing the communication service in the estimation target area Building information DB,
A communication facility information DB that stores communication facility information indicating a position of the communication facility existing in the estimation target area and a communication building that manages the communication facility;
A mesh information DB for storing mesh information indicating the position of each mesh provided by equally dividing the estimation target area in a grid pattern;
For each communication building, a failure information DB that stores failure information indicating a failure of communication equipment that has occurred in the service providing area of the communication building;
The position of each communication building read from the communication building information DB, the position of each communication facility read from the communication facility information DB, the communication building that manages the communication facility, and the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB And, for each combination of the communication building and the mesh, an individual communication facility number calculating unit for calculating the number of individual communication facilities, indicating the number of communication facilities managed in the communication building existing in the mesh. ,
From the number of individual communication facilities calculated by the number of individual communication facilities calculation unit and the failure information read from the failure information DB, for each combination of the communication building and the mesh, the number of individual communication facilities and the number of communication buildings. Based on the ratio with the number of communication facilities existing in the service provision area, the individual failure number calculation that calculates the number of individual failures indicating the number of failures of communication facilities managed in the communication building that occurred in the mesh And
Faults by mesh indicating the number of all faults occurring in the mesh for each mesh from the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB and the individual fault number calculated by the individual fault number calculation unit A distribution estimation apparatus comprising: a failure number calculation unit for each mesh for calculating a number. In the distribution estimation apparatus according to claim 1,
When calculating the number of individual failures of a certain communication building and mesh combination, the individual failure number calculation unit totals the number of individual communication facilities related to the communication building, and within the service providing area of the communication building The number of area communication facilities indicating the number of existing communication facilities is calculated, the ratio of the number of individual communication facilities of the combination to the number of area communication facilities is calculated, and this ratio is calculated as the number of failures in the communication building included in the failure information. A distribution estimation apparatus that calculates the number of individual faults of the combination by multiplying by. In the distribution estimation device according to claim 1 or 2,
When calculating the number of failures by mesh of a certain mesh, the number of failures by mesh is calculated by counting the number of individual failures of each mesh with each communication building from among the number of individual failures. A distribution estimation apparatus for calculating the number of faults for each mesh of the mesh. In the distribution estimation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
The communication facility information DB stores communication facility information indicating a position of a utility pole for providing the communication service as the communication facility and a communication building that manages the utility pole,
The number of individual communication facilities is calculated for each combination of the communication building and the mesh as the number of individual communication facilities, which is the number of utility poles existing in the mesh and managed by the communication building. A characteristic distribution estimation device. In the distribution estimation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
The communication facility information DB stores communication facility information indicating a communication cable position for providing the communication service as the communication facility and a communication building that manages the communication cable ,
The number of individual communication facilities is a communication cable length existing in the mesh for each combination of the communication building and the mesh and managed by the communication building as the number of individual communication facilities. A distribution estimation device characterized by calculating a length. The communication building information DB indicates the position of the communication building for each communication building that manages the communication facilities existing in the service providing area among the communication facilities for providing the communication service in the estimation target area. A communication building information storage step for storing building information;
A communication facility information storage step for storing communication facility information indicating a position of the communication facility existing in the estimation target area and a communication building that manages the communication facility;
A mesh information storage step in which the mesh information DB stores mesh information indicating the position of each mesh provided by equally dividing the estimation target area in a grid pattern;
A failure information storage step in which failure information DB stores failure information indicating a failure of a communication facility that has occurred in the service provision area of the communication building for each communication building;
The number of individual communication equipment number calculation sections, the position of each communication building read from the communication building information DB, the position of each communication equipment read from the communication equipment information DB, the communication building that manages the communication equipment, and the mesh information From the position of each mesh read from the DB, for each combination of the communication building and the mesh, calculate the number of individual communication facilities that indicate the number of communication facilities that exist in the mesh and are managed by the communication building. Calculating the number of individual communication facilities to be
The individual failure number calculation unit calculates the individual communication for each combination of the communication building and the mesh from the number of individual communication facilities calculated by the individual communication facility number calculation unit and the failure information read from the failure information DB. Based on the ratio of the number of facilities and the number of communication facilities existing in the service provision area of the communication building, the number of individual failures indicating the number of failures of communication facilities managed in the communication building that occurred in the mesh An individual failure number calculation step for calculating
The mesh-by-mesh failure number calculation unit calculates, for each mesh, all of the meshes that have occurred in the mesh from the position of each mesh read from the mesh information DB and the individual failure number calculated by the individual failure number calculation unit. A distribution estimation method comprising: a mesh-specific failure count calculation step for calculating a failure count by mesh that indicates a failure count.   The program for functioning a computer as each part of the distribution estimation apparatus as described in any one of Claims 1-5.

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